Week in Review

---

Week in Review

03/18/2017

For the week 3/13-3/17

[Posted 11:30 PM ET, Friday]

Note: StocksandNews has significant ongoing costs and your support is appreciated. Click on the gofundme link or send a check to PO Box 990, New Providence, NJ 07974. Special thanks this week to fireballing lefty Bobby C. [Well, he’s actually a righty, politically, but threw from the left side back in the day when he was on the mound.]

Edition 936

Trump, AHCA, Wiretaps and more....

Judge him one day at a time...judge him one day at a time...

I’m tellin’ ya, our president is really stressing some of us out.  Just when you think things might be calming down a little, we have the wiretapping issue blow up all over again, he has world leaders wondering about his sanity, and North Korea is liable to do anything, and at any moment.  There’s a reason why some of us had issues with Donald Trump from day one.  Today he gave us more proof.as to why we harbored such doubts.

But for now, I take it one topic at a time.

AHCA

Sunday, White House budget chief Mick Mulvaney (who has quickly become my favorite in the Cabinet) called House Republicans’ plan to repeal and replace ObamaCare a “framework.”

“This is the bill the president has looked at and said, ‘Yes, this is what will work,’” Mulvaney said on ABC’s “This Week.”

“If the House thinks they can make it a little better, if the Senate thinks they can make it a little better, we’re open to talking about those types of things.  The bill here is the framework, it’s a really nice framework. We like it. It’s a good repeal and replacement bill,” he said....

“If the House sees fit to make the bill better, it certainly has the support of the White House.”

Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price, appearing on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” pushed back against characterizing the GOP’s healthcare replacement plan as ObamaCare lite.

“Because independents and conservatives for decades have said, ‘Shouldn’t we equalize the tax treatment of the purchase of health coverage for folks who get it through their employer and folks who aren’t able to get it through their employer?’” he said.

“And that’s exactly what the tax credits do.  We don’t dictate to people what they ought to buy or what they must buy.”

Kentucky Republican Sen. Rand Paul had said on “The O’Reilly Factor”: “Conservatives across the land do not like Paul Ryan’s proposal because it is ObamaCare lite.... It keeps the subsidies, keeps the taxes, keeps the mandate and actually has an insurance company bailout in it.  We never have liked it.  ObamaCare is a disaster...but the only thing that’s really united us over time is repeal.  And if ObamaCare lite is the replacement, conservatives aren’t going to accept it.”

Sec. Price said, “I firmly believe that nobody will be worse off financially in the process that we’re going through.  Understanding that they’ll have choices that they can select the kind of coverage that they want for themselves and for their family, not the coverage government forces them to buy.”

Speaker Paul Ryan, appearing on CBS’ “Face the Nation”: “I do believe that if we don’t keep our word to the people who sent us here, yeah, it will be a bloodbath” in 2018, which Trump told Republican House members it would be.

Sen Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) said the House Republicans’ plan will need a lot of work to be approved in the upper chamber.  He suggested the House take a ‘pause.’

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said on “Face the Nation” that the GOP healthcare plan was an “absolute disaster” and a “disgrace.”

“What this has everything to do with is a massive shift of wealth from working people and middle-income people to the very richest people in this country....In my view, what the American people want is an improvement on ObamaCare, not the decimation of ObamaCare and throwing so many people off of health insurance and raising premiums substantially.”

Monday, the congressional Budget Office scored the House Republicans’ proposal and it predicted that 24 million fewer people would have coverage a decade from now than if the Affordable Care Act remained intact, nearly doubling the number of Americans who are uninsured from 10 percent to 19 percent.

But the GOP legislation would also lower the deficit by $338 billion, primarily by lessening spending on Medicaid and government aid for people buying health plans on their own.

“Just absurd,” was the way Mick Mulvaney described the forecast.  Tom Price said, “The CBO report’s coverage numbers defy logic.”

Speaker Paul Ryan, though, said the report “exceeded” his expectations, jumping on the prediction of a smaller deficit as he tries to placate the most conservative members of the House.

Ryan said the legislation would bring about “the most fundamental entitlement reform in a generation,” and that it “is about giving people more choices and better access to a plan they want and can afford. When people have more choices, costs go down. That’s what this report shows.”

Democrats leaped on the CBO’s findings.  “The CBO score shows just how empty the president’s promises, that everyone will be covered and costs will go down, have been,” said Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer.

White House spokesman Sean Spicer said, “If you’re looking to the CBO for accuracy, you’re looking in the wrong place.”

Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said the Republican healthcare plan indicated a path to lower insurance premiums, a lower deficit and significant entitlement reform.  McConnell said the Senate would bring up the House’s legislation and have it open to amendment before passing it.  Republican Senator Roy Blunt added at the same news briefing that the CBO was “notoriously bad” at anticipating what will happen in the marketplace.

Meanwhile, Trump loyalists warned that the president was at risk of violating some of his biggest campaign promises, including preserving Medicaid and other entitlement programs.

“Trump figures things out pretty quickly, and I think he’s figuring out this situation, how the House Republicans did him a disservice,” said Christopher Ruddy, a longtime Trump friend.  “President Trump is a big-picture, pragmatic Republican, and unfortunately the Ryan Republican plan doesn’t capture his worldview.”

Thursday, the House Budget Committee approved the repeal and replacement plan 19-17, with three Republicans voting no, all three members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, which is in opposition to the bill.

But Speaker Ryan told reporters the Budget panel’s action puts Republicans “another step closer toward keeping our promise to repeal and replace ObamaCare.”

Ryan emphasized it’s a step-by-step approach.  The bill now heads to the House Rules Committee, where leadership can make amendments to appease conservatives and moderates unhappy with the current form of the legislation.

Friday, President Trump declared his “100 percent” commitment to the House GOP’s plan, adding, “ObamaCare is dead.”

“Only because everyone knows it’s on its last, dying feet, the fake news is trying to say good things about it, the fake media.  There is no good news about ObamaCare. ObamaCare is dead.”

Trump said he successfully wooed 13 members of the Republican Study Committee (RSC) who visited the White House for a meeting to support the bill. 

Also today, Secretary Price privately told House Republicans in a closed-door meeting that changes could be made to the existing repeal-and-replace bill, which might include alterations to tax credits and giving states the option of imposing work requirements for Medicaid recipients.  [The Hill]

These two changes have risen to the top of options needed to round up 216 GOP votes.

Opinion....all sides....

Editorial / Washington Post

“When it comes to understanding the Republican obsession to undo ObamaCare, this number is about all you need to know: 24 million. That is how many people would lose coverage under the GOP’s supposedly choice-enhancing, access-increasing replacement plan. What possible justification can there be?

“The estimate comes from the most trustworthy scorekeeper in the legislative business, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).  Despite a last-minute, irresponsible Republican campaign to discredit the CBO’s professionals, their view should carry far more weight than all the magical thinking the GOP has passed off as policy analysis in the health-care debate.

“The CBO found that coverage would fall immediately, and then fall further after 2020, once the House GOP plan really kicked in.  ‘The increase in the number of uninsured people relative to the number under current law would rise to 21 million in 2020 and then to 24 million in 2026,’ the CBO reckoned.  Here’s the alarming bottom line: ‘In 2026, an estimated 52 million people would be uninsured, compared with 28 million who would lack insurance that year under current law.’  That’s a fifth of the non-elderly population left to fend for themselves, nearly double the current proportion.

“Republicans have for years tried to ignore one essential trade-off in health-care policy: Cutting government spending on needy people’s care raises the number of uninsured, lowers the quality of coverage or both.  Republicans say they can break this paradigm by unleashing the forces of local control, competition and consumer choice.

“The CBO concluded that they cannot.

“The Republican plan would cut Medicaid spending by $880 billion and subsidies for individual health insurance buyers by $232 billion over a decade, even as it loosened regulations that limit how much more insurers can charge older people than younger people and that require insurers to offer plans of a minimum quality.  Premiums for older people would rise and for younger people would fall.

“Unsurprisingly, ‘a larger share of enrollees in the nongroup market would be younger people and a smaller share would be older people.’

“The proposal would also cut subsidies aimed at the needy.  Again unsurprisingly, ‘Fewer lower-income people would obtain coverage,’ the CBO concluded.

“Another iron rule the GOP cannot avoid is that insurers do not want all health-care customers, just healthy ones.  They will use any leeway the government allows to offer skimpier coverage and serve only healthy people....

“The net result: The GPO plan would reduce Medicaid enrollment by 14 million, cut enrollment in individual market health-care plans by 2 million and even reduce employer-provided insurance by 7 million people.

“Republicans will note the CBO found that insurance markets would be stable under their plan. Yet their false alarms notwithstanding, insurance markets would be stable with some modest fixes to ObamaCare, too. So we ask again: Why would anyone willingly harm the American people in this way?”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“The white smoke rose Monday afternoon from the Congressional Budget Office as the fiscal forecasters published their cost-and-coverage estimates of the GOP health-care reform bill. Awaiting such predictions – and then investing them with supposed clairvoyance – are Beltway rituals. The coverage numbers  weren’t great for Republicans, but they shouldn’t allow an outfit that historically underestimates the benefits of market forces to drive policy.

“The good news is that CBO estimates that the American Health Care Act would cut the budget deficit by $337 billion over 10 years as the bill replaces ObamaCare’s subsidies with tax credits, rationalizes its Medicaid expansion and repeals its tax increases.  The bill would cut taxes by nearly $900 billion while cutting spending by $1.2 trillion.

“The bad news is that CBO thinks 14 million people on net would be uninsured in 2018 relative to the ObamaCare status quo.  How many people may ‘lose coverage’ is the debate progressives want to have, as if that’s the only relevant question in U.S. health care.

“The CBO attributes ‘most’ of this initial coverage plunge to ‘repealing the penalties associated with the individual mandate.’  If people aren’t subject to government coercion to buy insurance or else pay a fine, some ‘would choose not to have insurance because they chose to be covered by insurance under current law only to avoid paying the penalties, and some people would forgo insurance in response to higher premiums.’

“What this finding says about the value Americans attach to ObamaCare-compliant health insurance is damning.  If CBO is right, some 14 million people would rather spend their money on something else, despite the subsidies.

“But CBO also has too much faith in the mandate as an effective policy tool.  In ObamaCare practice, the mandate isn’t pulling ‘free riders’ into the insurance markets. The IRS reports that in 2015 some 12.7 million taxpayers claimed one or more exemptions from the mandate, such as ‘hardship,’ while merely 6.5 million paid the fine.

“The GOP wager is that the stability of the individual insurance market would improve with better incentives and if people want to participate. Deregulation would free up insurers to offer more options at many price points that meet different needs.  Instead of brute force, Republicans think more people would join the market if it offers alternatives worth the cost.

“CBO’s budget gnomes don’t share these assumptions and they don’t get built into their models. CBO models are not a writ carved in stone by a finger of light, but merely an educated economic guess about how consumers and businesses will behave differently in response to new health-care policies.

“Thus this cost estimate should be part of the larger debate, not taken as gospel. Last year the more market-friendly Center for Health and Economy scored the House GOP’s ‘Better Way’ health plan, which this bill closely resembles.  The center model was designed by the University of Minnesota’s Stephen Parente, the leading expert in modeling premium support-style health reforms.

“The center estimated that the individual market would grow by about a million on net compared to current law in 2018 and by 13 million in 2026. Tax credits and deregulation may well be more powerful than mandates in practice.

“The center did find that per-capita Medicaid block grants would cause about four million fewer insured individuals in total by 2026, which is more modest than CBO.  Over time, according to CBO, coverage losses would rise to 21 million in 2020 and then to 24 million in 2026 as states rolled back ObamaCare’s Medicaid expansion.

“But there are more than a few reasons to doubt CBO’s fortune-telling, especially in health care. Precisely because its models give too much weight to government coercion and too little to free markets, its projections have often missed the mark.

“In February 2013, CBO predicted that ObamaCare enrollment in the individual market would be 13 million in 2015, 24 million in 2016 and 26 million in 2017.  The actual enrollment for those years were, respectively, 11 million, 12 million and 10 million....

“The smarter approach is to take CBO as merely one opinion about the future and point to others that are equally credible, and explain why.  Above all, the GOP shouldn’t let budget scorekeepers dictate political judgments.  They should thank the CBO for its opinions, have confidence that their ideas will work, and march ahead to fulfill their campaign promise to repeal and replace the failing Affordable Care Act.”

Robert Samuelson / Washington Post

“What we learned from the latest ‘score’ by the Congressional Budget Office of ObamaCare and the Trump administration’s ‘repeal and replace’ plan is what we should have known all along. To wit:

“If people have health insurance, they will use more health services – visits to doctor’s offices, tests, procedures and drugs – and health spending will rise.

“If spending rises too much, insurance premiums will follow, and more Americans will find private insurance unaffordable.

“If the poor and others can’t afford health insurance, they won’t be covered unless someone subsidizes their insurance.

“If the subsidies are cut, more people will go without insurance and the demand for health services will slow.

“In a nutshell, that’s the story of moving from ObamaCare to what some call ‘Trumpcare.’  ObamaCare vastly increased insurance subsidies for the poor and near-poor; it paid for the expansion mainly through a series of new taxes.  Insurance coverage expanded. By contrast, Trumpcare would repeal most tax increases and curtail subsidies.  Insurance coverage, by the CBO’s reckoning, will fall.  The CBO estimates that in 2026, 52 million Americans will be uninsured, an increase of 24 million over the 28 million who would lack insurance under ObamaCare.

“The main action is with Medicaid, the joint federal-state insurance program for the poor.  ObamaCare liberalized Medicaid’s eligibility requirements and accompanied the expansion with larger subsidies for states that accepted the broader requirements.  Thirty-one states and the District of Columbia did so.  Trumpcare would reduce ObamaCare’s generous subsidies substantially, causing some states, the CBO says, to tighten eligibility requirements or cut other Medicaid benefits.  Of the 24 million drop in the insured in 2026, a 14 million subset reflects fewer people receiving Medicaid.  The CBO also predicts that 7 million Americans would lose insurance provided by their employers by 2026, mainly because Trumpcare would effectively eliminate the requirement that large firms provide insurance to workers....

“Just what happens now is unclear. One possibility is that Republicans will sweeten their proposals. According to the CBO, the net effect of eliminating both ObamaCare’s subsidies and tax increases is a $337 billion surplus from 2017 to 2026 (that is, spending drops about $1.2 trillion and almost $900 billion of tax increases are cut). These funds could be applied to Medicaid or to the refundable tax credits that are Trumpcare’s main form of subsidy. These would reduce the uninsured somewhat....

“What’s clear is that President Trump and his supporters have the ‘repeal’ part down but not the ‘replace.’”

Daniel Henninger / Wall Street Journal

“Less than three months into full control of government and the chance to reshape the American system for a generation, Republicans are doing something no one thought possible: They are reinventing the circular firing squad.

“Even a politician of such limitless cynicism as Chuck Schumer is agog: ‘We are on offense and united. They are on defense and divided, the opposite of what people would have predicted a month or two ago....

“Under pressure from a CBO ‘score,’ the genetic disposition of Republican politicians is to go wobbly. The disposition of movement conservatives is to get out the long knives and start carving up other conservatives.

“The result will be guaranteed political defeat for years if congressional Republicans choke at the chance to repeal and replace ObamaCare....

“The American people didn’t endure and survive the 2016 presidential election for this. The public that voted Donald Trump into the White House will drive Republicans into a deserved wilderness if they go back on the only promise anyone can remember them making the past six years.

“The day the Republicans clutch on this reform, there will be six-column headlines across the Washington Post and New York Times: ‘Trump Abandons Promises on Health Care.’  It will be a fast ride downhill from there.  That is because the health-care reform bill is linked inextricably to the politics of tax reform, the second pillar of the Trump legislative agenda....

“The conservative ‘friends’ counseling Mr. Trump to give up now on health-care reform will move overnight to the next darling, say, Sen. Mike Lee who wrote on the Heritage Foundation’s blog Monday that Republicans should vote for repeal only and ‘take our time’ on reform.

“In the wake of repeal only, the U.S. health insurance market would be reduced to a shambles. After that, the next major party will be the Libertarians, because the GOP will be defunct.  Maybe that’s what cable-TV star Rand Paul is up to....

“The election was also about resetting the balance of authority between Washington and the states – a key goal of this reform’s Medicaid provisions. The Democrats are united in opposition because they’ve become a rule-from-Washington party.  But the Republicans?

“If this bill fails, there is only one Plan B.  It will be a single-payer system enacted after 2020 with votes from what’s left of the Republican party after – Donald Trump is right about this – they get wiped out in 2018 and lose the presidency two years later. After blowing it on ObamaCare, why would anyone vote for them again?”

According to the latest national Fox News Poll, 93% of voters say they have health insurance, and more than three in four (77%) rate their insurance positively (excellent or good).

50% have a favorable opinion of ObamaCare, unchanged from January, and up from 38% two years ago.  47% have a negative view.

54% oppose the GOP plan, but among those who don’t like it, 2/3s don’t because it makes too many changes to ObamaCare.

Only 44% have a favorable opinion of President Trump in this survey, by the way, which is better than that of Paul Ryan (37%), Nancy Pelosi (33%), and Chuck Schumer (26%).

Bernie Sanders, on the other hand, has a 61% favorable and a 32% unfavorable.

32% approve of the job Congressional Democrats are doing, while Congressional Republicans are approved by 29%.

One of these days I’ll spell out my own healthcare experience (I’m fine...had a physical the other day...), but I don’t have the time now.  As to the AHCA, though, as I said last week I am totally behind Speaker Ryan.  Of course changes are going to be made to the initial proposal.  Good.

I also agree with Secretary Price when he says there is a difference between “coverage” and “healthcare.”  Many Americans simply aren’t being honest over the distinction.

Meanwhile, on the revised travel ban, Wednesday, a federal judge in Hawaii placed a nationwide hold on the order after hearing arguments that the executive order discriminates on the basis of nationality. The state also said the ban would harm its tourism industry and the ability to recruit foreign students and workers.

Trump vowed at a rally in Tennessee Wednesday night after U.S. District Judge Derrick Watson, an Obama appointee, ruled against him, “We’re going to take our case as far as it needs to go, including all the way up to the Supreme Court.  We’re going to win,” Trump declared.  “The danger is clear. The law is clear. The need for my executive order is clear.”

A federal judge in Maryland early Thursday also temporarily blocked parts of the revised order.  What a fiasco, totally self-inflicted.

As to the first Trump budget proposal, don’t waste your time on this.  It’s dead on arrival just like all previous budgets, virtually all administrations.

But for the record, the plan shows how the administration hopes to offset an increase of $54 million in military spending with an equivalent amount of reductions across other programs, to avoid increasing the budget deficit, which the CBO has projected at $487 billion for 2018.  The proposal leaves untouched roughly $2.5 trillion in annual outlays on Medicare, Social Security and other mandatory spending.

Additional proposals on taxes and entitlements are expected by mid-May.

Senate rules require 60 votes to advance the annual appropriations bills that set each department’s spending levels, so Republicans need support from eight Democrats.

But the budget outline lets Trump burnish his conservative credentials.  After all, it’s titled “America First: A Budget Blueprint to Make America Great Again.”

Budget Director Mulvaney said: “You’re seeing us spend more money to defend the nation and more money at home and less money overseas.”

The Trump plan targets the EPA for some of the steepest cuts, 30%, while also eliminating future federal support for the National Endowment for the Arts, the National Endowment for the Humanities and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.  Spending for the United Nations would be cut by 50% to 60%, depending on the program.

The president who said he wants to eliminate all disease is cutting funding for the National Institutes of Health by 20%.

Mulvaney told reporters, “You can’t drain the swamp and leave all the people in it.”

Republican Senator Marco Rubio (Fla.) said, “The administration’s budget isn’t going to be the budget. We do the budget here.”

Here’s really all you need to know.  The Senate rejected President Obama’s budget in 2016 in a vote of 98-1. Earlier Obama budgets lost by votes of 99-0 and 97-0, though Democrats largely voted no because they say Republicans were playing politics in setting the budget votes.

But while Trump’s budget would not take effect until the new fiscal year on Oct. 1, the White House and Congress must reach a separate agreement on a temporary funding bill by the end of April to get through the rest of the fiscal year, Sept. 30.

And you have the debt ceiling, an extension for which was extended to Thursday, March 15, but the government can continue borrowing by playing games with various payments through the summer.

And there’s the wiretapping issue.  The leaders of the House Intelligence Committee said Wednesday that they had seen no evidence to support President Trump’s claim that he was wiretapped by President Obama at Trump Tower.

Republican Rep. Devin Nunes (Calif.), the chairman of the committee, said at a press conference with Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), “We don’t have any evidence that took place.”

Schiff said: “I have seen no evidence that supports the claim that President Trump has made.”

Earlier, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said on CNN’s “State of the Union” that “President Trump has to provide the American people, not just the intelligence community, but the American people, with evidence that his predecessor, former president of the United States, was guilty of breaking the law.”

“I have no reason to believe that the charge is true,” McCain added, “but I also believe that the president of the United States could clear this up in a minute.”

Thursday, the leadership of the Senate Intelligence Committee flatly refuted Trump’s claims his New York offices were wiretapped by the Obama administration.

“Based on the information available to us, we see no indications that Trump Tower was the subject of surveillance by any element of the United States government either before or after Election Day 2016,” Chairman Richard Burr, R-N.C., and Vice Chairman Mark Warner, D-Va., said in a joint statement.

House Speaker Paul Ryan also threw cold water on Trump’s theory: “We’ve cleared that up; we’ve seen no evidence of that.”

FBI Director James Comey is testifying before the House Intel Committee at a public hearing Monday and will be questioned about Trump’s claim.  National Security Agency head Adm. Michael Rogers will also testify.

So that’s it for a few days, right?  Wrong!

Later Thursday, White House spokesman Sean Spicer said the president “stands by” general contentions that the government had engaged in some type of surveillance prior to the election.  He also maintained the Senate and House committees made their conclusions without the input of the Justice Department.

Spicer, in his best impression of Melissa McCarthy, gave a lengthy recitation of past news reports – based on anonymous sources – as possible evidence of surveillance, citing numerous Fox News reports in the process.

“There’s a ton of media reports out there that indicate that something was going on during the 2016 election,” Spicer said.  He then blamed Britain and its surveillance agency the GCHQ, which then denied it wiretapped Trump during the campaign, after Spicer repeated claims first made on Fox by Judge Andrew Napolitano.

A spokesman for British Prime Minister Theresa May said it had been made clear to U.S. authorities the claims were “ridiculous and should have been ignored.”  A GCHQ spokesman said: “Recent allegations made by media commentator Judge Andrew Napolitano about GCHQ being asked to conduct ‘wiretapping’ against the then president-elect are nonsense.  They are utterly ridiculous and should be ignored.”

But then Friday, at a press conference with visiting German Chancellor Angela Merkel (that I watched live), a German reporter asked Trump whether he regrets claiming that former President Obama bugged Trump Tower, provoking Trump to joke about reports that the National Security Agency had once monitored Merkel’s phone under Obama.

“As far as wiretapping, I guess by this past administration, at least we have something in common, perhaps,” Trump said with a grin.  The look on Merkel’s face said, ‘What a freakin’ idiot.’

Trump then said Sean Spicer had merely read aloud a report from a Fox News legal analyst.

“We said nothing.  All we did was quote a certain very talented legal mind who was the one responsible for saying that on television. I did not make an opinion on it,” Trump said.

“That was a statement made by a very talented lawyer on Fox.  So you should not be talking to me. You should be talking to Fox.”

Unreal.  Sean Spicer then told reporters after the news conference that the White House has no regrets about citing the Fox News report. He said he and other officials “just reiterated the fact that we were just simply reading media accounts.”

“That’s it,” he said.  “I don’t think we regret anything.  We literally listed a litany of media reports that are in the public domain.”

In response to a request for comment, Fox News referred to an on-air statement made Friday afternoon by anchor Shepard Smith, which read: “Fox News cannot confirm Judge Napolitano’s commentary. Fox News knows of no evidence of any kind that the now-president of the United States was surveilled at any time, in any way, full stop.”

The Brits are more livid tonight than they were Thursday.  Our president truly acted like a clown today.  It was appalling. 

Two weeks ago, a longtime reader, Chris from Connecticut, wrote me after the initial wiretap drama, and while Chris is an admitted Democrat, he told me how he finds himself “agreeing with more of Trump’s policies than I want to admit.”

But Chris added, “Right messages; dangerously wrong messenger.”

Look, I myself love what Trump is doing with deregulation, repealing ObamaCare, immigration, asking NATO to pay their fair share, rebuilding our infrastructure...but for crying out loud, yes, this man is unstable. 

That said I will continue to judge him day to day.  I will invoke my adage “wait 24 hours.”  But at the same time, it’s a big world out there.  An incredibly dangerous one.  I’m sleeping with one eye open.

Wall Street

As expected, at least by yours truly for months, never wavering like the rest of the Street did, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday for the second time in three months, this time to a range between 0.75 percent and 1 percent.

But Chair Janet Yellen, at a news conference after the decision was announced, said the Fed did not share the optimism of stock market investors and some business executives that economic growth is gaining speed.

Yes, Yellen was confident, just not ebullient.  “The data have not notably strengthened,” she told reporters.  “We haven’t changed the outlook.  We think we’re moving on the same course we’ve been on.”  She added: “We have confidence in the robustness of the economy and its resilience to shocks.”

The Fed said the U.S. economy continued to expand at a “moderate pace.” In its formal statement it also acknowledged “inflation has increased in recent quarters, moving close to (the Fed’s) 2% longer run objective.”  [Its preferred benchmark measuring 1.9% currently, 1.7% ex-food and energy.]

Policymakers maintained their 2.1% growth forecast for this year but slightly raised the projection to 2.1% from 2% for 2018.  The Fed’s inflation estimate for 2017 is 1.9%, 2% for 2018.  The board is also still forecasting three rate hikes this year, now minus one.

The Fed next meets May 2-3, with the Commerce Department releasing its first reading on first-quarter growth on April 28.  This will be important.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow indicator is at just 0.9% for Q1, which is worrisome (if you believe in this generally reliable forecasting tool).  It is down from 3.4% earlier in the quarter. 

But the Street is still forecasting 2.1% in the current quarter, according to a Bloomberg survey. If the number is closer to 1.0% to 1.5%, though, it could certainly give pause for the Fed in May and force it to wait until June for a second hike of the year.

The Wall Street Journal’s monthly survey of economists is a little more optimistic, at least when looking at the full year.  They see 2.4% growth in 2017, compared with 2.2% prior to the election.  For 2018, it’s 2.5%, compared with 2% in pre-election forecasts.

But then this same group sees just 2.1% for 2019 and beyond, precisely the same as before the election.

Why the discrepancy?  Wall Street is assuming an infrastructure bill that would add hundreds of thousands to the workforce and provide a stimulus.

But longer term, it’s about demographics and productivity.

What would boost the figures even higher?  Meaningful tax reform.  Otherwise, the picture is uncertain until policy enactment becomes clearer.

Robert J. Samuelson / Washington Post

“Toward the end of 1942, Winston Churchill, in announcing a rare victory over the German army, uttered one of his more memorable phrases: ‘This is not the end.  It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.’  The same might be said today of the American economic recovery.  Progress, though real, is incomplete.

“Nine years after Bear Stearns’ collapse – the first sign that the economy was in serious trouble – the recovery seems to have healed the Great Recession’s worst wounds.  Job creation has been steady.  Payroll jobs total 145.8 million, up about 16.1 million from the slump’s low point and 7.5 million from the pre-recession peak.

“There’s also upbeat news on wages.  In a new report, economist Elise Gould of the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute (EPI) reports that median wages, adjusted for inflation, grew 3.1 percent between 2015 and 2016 – a feat that, if repeated for a decade, would mean an increase of a third.  (The median wage is the one exactly in the middle of all wages.)

“ ‘What stands out in this last year of data is that the economic recovery appears to finally be reaching a broad swath of American workers,’ writes Gould.  ‘In fact, wage growth in 2016 was more rapid for middle- and low-wage workers than for those at the top.’  The unemployment rate, 4.7 percent in February, is close to what many economists think is ‘full employment.’

“And yet, stubborn problems linger. Corporate managers, small-business owners and consumers all remember the traumatizing effects of the financial crisis and Great Recession.  To protect against a repetition, they’ve become more risk-averse.  Similarly, some of the recovery’s ‘good news’ needs to be qualified.

“Consider wages.  Recent increases for middle-income workers mostly represent catch-up from losses suffered in the recession.  The table below reflects data in Gould’s report.  It shows the median hourly wage for men and women in four recent years, corrected for inflation.”

In sum: From 2000 to 2016, the median hourly wage for Men went from $19.44 to $1933; for Women from $15.22 to $16.08.

And Samuelson notes, “Another glaring problem has been the dismal performance of productivity. To remind: Productivity is economic jargon for efficiency; without improved productivity, broad gains in living standards are impossible.  From 1948 to 2016, productivity gains averaged 2 percent annually; but since 2012, gains have been less than 0.4 percent a year.  If continued, and combined with rising inequality, this suggests stagnant living standards or worse for millions.”

There was some other economic news on the week....

Producer prices rose 0.3% in February, 0.3% ex-food and energy.  For the last 12 months, the PPI is at a nearly five-year high, 2.2%, 1.8% on core.

Consumer prices were up 0.1% last month, 0.2% on core, and up 2.7% year-over-year, the highest since March 2012, and up 2.2% ex-food and energy yoy.

February retail sales were disappointing, up 0.1%, 0.2% ex-autos.  Housing starts for the month came in better than expected at 1.288 million.  And February industrial production was unchanged.

But reflecting the optimism among America’s CEOs since Trump was elected, the Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Index – a measure of expectations for revenue, capital spending and employment – jumped to its highest level since the final three months of 2009.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon, chairman of the Business Roundtable, said in a statement: “I am enthusiastic about the opportunity to enact a meaningful pro-growth agenda that will benefit all Americans.  As these results confirm, business confidence and optimism have increased dramatically.” 

Corporate leaders project the economy will grow 2.2% this year.

But while the stock market continues at or near record highs, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller isn’t as sanguine.  The last time he heard such optimism in the markets was 2000, he said the other day, and that didn’t end well for the bulls; Shiller having nailed the dot-com peak with the publication of his book that year, “Irrational Exuberance.”

Whereas in 2000, traders were captivated by the “new era story” of the Internet and a technological transformation, today, the game changer everyone is talking about is politics and Donald Trump’s bold plans to slash regulations, cut taxes and juice growth with a massive infrastructure program.

But Shiller wonders why traders are so fixated on the upsides of a Trump presidency when the downside risks seem just as big, including a management style that, to some, breeds uncertainty, and a confrontational foreign policy, though I hasten to add we need more time in this regard as thus far, Trump’s bark has been worse than his bite.

One technical factor that makes Shiller cautious on stocks is his proprietary cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio, which shows stocks are almost as expensive now as they were on the eve of the 1929 crash.

“The market is way over-priced,” he says.  “It’s not as intellectual as people would think, or as economists would have you believe.”  I agree.

Europe and Asia

Just a little economic news before we get to the big election.  Annual inflation in the Euro area was 2.0% in February, up from 1.8% in January.  In February 2016 the rate was -0.2%.  Quite a change.

Germany came in at 2.2%; France 1.4%; Italy 1.6%; Spain 3.0% (vs. -1.0% ann. a year earlier); Greece 1.4%.

Yes, 2.0% is the European Central Bank’s target, but they continue to say it’s about core inflation, which ex-food and energy is still just 0.9% ann.

Separately, industrial production in the EA19 was up 0.9% January over December, up 0.6% year-over-year, as reported by Eurostat.

Eurobits....

--Election in the Netherlands: With an estimated turnout of 82%, the highest in 30 years, the Dutch turned out in force to back pro-European parties and help Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s Liberals easily beat off a myriad of challengers, especially the anti-Islam Freedom Party led by Geert Wilders, in what was seen across Europe as drawing a line in the sand over the spread of populism.

The race was roiled in the final days by one outburst after another from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who after seeing his ministers denied access to Turkish expatriates in the Netherlands who are eligible to vote in an upcoming referendum in Turkey, blamed the Netherlands’ “corrupt” character for the 1995 massacre of thousands of Bosnians under the watch of a Dutch peacekeeping continent in Srebrenica.

Prime Minister Rutte had barred a plane carrying Turkey’s foreign minister from landing over the weekend, saying his visit would be a threat to public order.

But when the Srebrenica claim came up, Rutte called the Turkish leader’s comments “hysterical” and “unbelievable.”  He also demanded Erdogan apologize for likening the Dutch to “Nazi fascists.”

Erdogan also lashed out again at German Chancellor Angela Merkel for siding with the Netherlands.  Erdogan accused Germany of using “Nazi practices” and of supporting “terrorist organizations,” including the separatist Kurdish PKK group.

Many in Europe think Erdogan crossed a line, from which there is no going back, certainly when it comes to Turkey’s hopes of joining the European Union.  But I digress.

Back to the Dutch election...the Liberal Party won 33 seats in the 150-seat lower house of parliament to 20 seats for the Freedom Party.  The Christian Democrats and the centrist D66 party were tied at 19.  The Socialists won 14 seats, ditto the Greens, who picked up 10 from the 2012 election.

Thirteen parties in all qualified for the new parliament, including “Party for the Animals,” which gained 5 seats.  No, I haven’t looked up their platform, but I like to party and I like animals!

The biggest loser was the Labor Party, which saw a collapse in support from 38 seats to just nine, the worst rout in Dutch electoral history

So Rutte gets the first shot at forming a government, though with no obvious majority, coalition talks will likely take a few months.  It does seem pretty clear, though, he could team up with the Christian Democrats and D66 for an alliance of 71 seats, just five short of a majority.

Rutte portrayed the vote as a rejection of what he called “the wrong kind of populism.” Wilders had derided Moroccans living in the Netherlands as “scum,” calling for the country’s borders to be closed to asylum seekers, while demanding a ban on the Koran.  Wilders also called for pulling the Netherlands out of the European Union and abandoning the euro.

But Wilders did move the needle on the discussion, which should continue.  He can take credit for forcing the government to take a stand and keep Turkish ministers out, while there is no doubt Ankara helped Rutte’s party. Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, who was denied permission to go to Holland over the weekend, said in comments carried by the Anadolu news agency that there was no difference between Rutte’s party and that of the “fascist” Wilders.

Rutte described the vote as continental Europe’s first test in 2017 of the anti-establishment populism that pulled the U.K. out of the EU and elected Donald Trump as president.  His victory clearly gives hope to mainstream French political forces, for one, but Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front could still end up in a knockout round and while as described below the polls for her in a runoff are dismal, nothing is certain these days.

Congratulations flowed in for Rutte from around Europe. French President Francois Hollande said Rutte’s success was a “clear victory against extremism.”  German Socialist leader Martin Schulz tweeted: “I am relieved, but we need to continue to fight for an open and Free Europe.”

By the way, the last Ipsos survey before the election had the Freedom Party at 20 seats, so spot on, but Rutte’s Liberals were seen gaining 29 seats, not the 33 they ended up with.

--As for the upcoming French presidential election (April 23, May 7), candidate Francois Fillon, once the odds-on favorite, continued to be beset by problems.  Tuesday he was charged with misuse of public funds related to the investigation into whether family members did any real work while on the public payroll as his parliamentary aides.  Fillon continues to deny he did anything wrong and while the judges’ decision confirms the worst-case scenario for him, Fillon has promised to stay in the race regardless.

An OpinionWay tracking poll has Marine Le Pen at 27%, Emmanuel Macron at 24% and Fillon 20%, with Macron defeating Le Pen by 20 points in the runoff.

In the latest Bloomberg French Election Poll Tracker, Le Pen is at 27 %, Macron 24% and Fillon less than 19%.

The candidates have a televised debate Monday, March 20, with viewership expected to be huge.

--On the Brexit front, despite rumors British Prime Minister Theresa May might kickstart her nation’s exit from the European Union this week, the government will not trigger Article 50 for another ten days or so.  MPs backed the legislation that gives her the power to initiate the process.

But Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon on Monday demanded the power to call another referendum on independence by spring 2019.

“It is important that Scotland is able to exercise the right to choose our own future at a time when the options are clearer than they are now, but before it is too late to decide on our own path,” Ms. Sturgeon told reporters.

Sturgeon said that her efforts to persuade Mrs. May to adapt her Brexit strategy to reflect Scottish wishes to remain within the bloc’s single market for goods and services had been rebuffed, giving her no choice but to seek a new poll on independence.  “All of our efforts at compromise have been met with a brick wall of intransigence,” she said, adding that Brexit threatened the Scottish economy and diverse society.

“U.K. membership of the single market was ruled out with no prior consultation with the Scottish government or with the other devolved administrations, leaving us facing not just Brexit, but a hard Brexit,” she said. 

Scotland voted 62-38 against Brexit last June.

Prime Minister May rejected Scotland’s bid to hold a referendum.  While not ruling it out forever, May’s Brexit team said they would not even discuss a new referendum while their focus is on getting the best Brexit deal for the whole U.K.

“My message is very clear: now is not the time,” May said in an interview with ITV News in London on Thursday. Scots shouldn’t have to vote on independence before Brexit is settled.  “They would be asked to make a crucial decision without the information they need.”

Sturgeon responded by saying that stance was “undemocratic and unsustainable” and she would push ahead with the legal process to demand the right to hold a vote.  “History may look on today and see it as the day the fate of the union was sealed,” Sturgeon told BBC Scotland.

Wrong!  Of course May’s logic is spot on.  Sturgeon is just being an, err, sturgeon.

One analyst, Ian Bond, told Bloomberg News, “What you have now is Sturgeon maneuvering to get May to offend as many Scots as possible and May trying to maneuver to offend as few as possible.”

But since May’s Conservative Party is highly unpopular in Scotland, Sturgeon could gain, at least short term.

In the 2014 independence referendum, 55% voted against a secession and 45% voted for it.  Polls taken since show essentially the same tally.

The Scottish Parliament, meeting this coming week, could grant Sturgeon the authority to legislate for a new vote.  But the U.K. cabinet minister responsible for Scotland, David Mundell, said even if a formal request [what is called a Section 30 order] from the Scottish Parliament is approved, it would be thrown out.

Meanwhile, the European Union is considering making the U.K. wait until June for formal negotiations to begin on the terms of Brexit. The 27 other members of the EU have pinpointed a meeting of government ministers in Luxembourg set for June 20 as the moment to authorize the opening of two years of talks.

Once Mrs. May triggers the exit, the power shifts to the EU and she will be forced to be patient.

The delay, though, will only create more uncertainty for businesses and banks seeking early clarity on just what Britain’s departure from the EU means for them.

EU leaders do have a summit on April 6, but the summit date could be moved depending on when the U.K. acts.  You have Easter and then the French presidential election to deal with.

Gideon Rachman / Financial Times

“(The) sense of certainty created by the triggering of Article 50 will, in many ways, be illusory.  Brexit is still shrouded by uncertainty.  As one U.K. official closely involved in the process puts it: ‘Some days I wake up and think it’s all going to be fine.  Other days, it feels like a disaster in the making.’

“I feel the same way.  It seems to me likely that Brexit will work out badly for Britain and fairly badly for the EU.  But there are so many different variables involved that nobody sensible can be sure.

“There are three main ‘known unknowns.’ First, the negotiations themselves.  Second, events in the wider world. Third, the unpredictable economic effects of whatever deal is struck.”

Over the coming months and years, we’ll be covering each one of these in great detail, no doubt.

I have said since day one following the referendum last June that this will be a mess and that the markets are underestimating the impact.

--Eurostat reported that in 2016, 1,204,300 first time asylum seekers applied for international protection in the Member States of the European Union, down slightly from 2015, when the figure was 1,257,030.

Syrians (334,800), Afghans (183,000) and Iraqis (127,000) remained the main citizenship of those applying.

Overall, Germany took in 722,265 last year, way more than anywhere else.  [France 75,990; Italy 121,185; Austria 39,860; Sweden 22,330; U.K. 38,290; Greece 49,875; Netherlands 19,285.]

Turning to Asia, China reported a slew of numbers. Retail sales were up 9.5% for the two months, January and February, that encompassed the Lunar New Year holiday, but this is the slowest pace in 11 years, and versus 10.9% in December.  It’s a warning light on consumption, which China needs to ramp up.

Car sales rose 10.2% in 2016, as just released Tuesday, but they have started off 2017 down 1% year-over-year.

Industrial production rose 6.3% in the first two months, vs. 6.0% in December, while fixed asset investment rose 8.9%.  State-controlled firms saw a 14.4% increase in this last category, while it rose 6.7% among privately owned firms.

Foreign direct investment into China fell 2.3% in the first two months of this year to $20.10 billion, as reported by the Commerce Ministry on Thursday. 

All in all, a so-so picture, but it is always difficult gauging the activity around the extensive holiday.

In Japan, volatile machine tool orders fell 3.2% in January, down 8.2% year-over-year.

Street Bytes

--Quiet week on Wall Street, save for a little rally after the Fed rate hike on Wednesday.  Overall, the Dow Jones added 0.1% to 20914, the S&P 500 gained 0.2%, and Nasdaq rose 0.7% to three points shy of its all-time high.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 0.86%  2-yr. 1.31%  10-yr. 2.50%  30-yr. 3.11%

Bonds actually rallied despite the rate hike, based on the Fed’s (Yellen’s) dovish, low for longer, talk. 

They were largely unchanged in Europe, which you know I’m following closely. It’s just a massive bond bubble there, but I’ve been crying wolf for years and been wrong thus far.

--Inventories for U.S. crude declined for the first time this year as imports slowed, according to the Energy Information Administration.  But the report also showed that stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, a key delivery hub, rose more than expected.

After bottoming in the $47.60 area on West Texas Intermediate, crude rebounded some to finish the week up slightly to $48.72.

Earlier, there were concerns over Saudi Arabia’s commitment to production cuts, but the kingdom’s energy minister issued a statement asserting it would stabilize the global oil market.

“Saudi Arabia assures the market that it is committed and determined to stabilizing the global oil market by working closely with all other participating OPEC and non-OPEC producers,” the ministry said.

Meanwhile, the kingdom is preparing a listing of its state energy giant Saudi Aramco, in what will be the world’s largest IPO, as it looks to diversity its oil-dependent economy.

--On the natural gas front, as the Wall Street Journal put it, “A flood of it swamping the U.S. is turning into a global glut, sinking prices and dimming the hopes of American producers to export their way out of an oversupplied domestic market.”

Nat-gas futures have cratered 25% over the past ten weeks.

--Yahoo has said it believed it was the victim of a state-sponsored hack attack and this week, two Russian spies, one well-known Russian hacker and one Canadian were charged with stealing sensitive information from 500 million Yahoo user accounts in one of corporate America’s biggest-known hacks.

Yahoo first disclosed the hack in September, saying the attack scarfed up names, email addresses, telephone numbers, dates of birth, passwords and certain security questions and answers. 

While two Russian operatives of the Kremlin’s intelligence agency, the F.S.B., and the other two were indicted, there is no extradition treaty with Moscow, and there is obviously zero reason for the Kremlin to hand over its spies. But at least it sends a message that we can identify some people, and it might get the Kremlin to reduce its efforts to wreak havoc here.  [The Kremlin denied it was involved...cough cough.]

U.S. officials said the hack of Yahoo had dual motives.  One was to gather information on Russian journalists and U.S. and Russian officials, and other stuff, plus there was the motive of financial gain for the hackers.

--President Trump traveled to Michigan this week to grant automakers what they have long wanted, a halt to an initiative by the Obama administration to impose stringent fuel-economy standards by 2015 – rules meant to cut carbon emissions and meet international commitments to address climate change.

“The assault on the American auto industry is over,” Trump declared.

The move to reopen the government’s review of the standards will allow automakers to argue for less restrictive mileage standards than the target of 54.5 miles per gallon set in 2012 by Obama.

I’ve been doing this column 19 years, and I’m on record for favoring actions taken by both Republican and Democratic administrations in this regard.

But, today, I think the auto industry has already done a terrific job and the leap to 54.5 is a bit much.  Having said that, technology advancements would allow us to get there around 2025, but at this point, let the marketplace take over.  Including if people want electric cars, well, they can now buy them.

--Very much related to the above, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday that climate-warming emissions from burning fossil fuels remained flat for a third year in a row, a development that suggests a shift to a greener economy is happening faster than expected.

Carbon pollution in the U.S. has been dropping and emissions fell back to what they were in 1992, the IEA said.

“This is a very welcome development,” said Fatih Birol, IEA executive director.  “It appears we now have the first signs of an established trend of flat emissions as a result of natural gas replacing coal in major markets and renewables becoming more and more affordable.”

Birol said it was especially significant that emissions stayed flat during a period of global economic growth, currently about 3 percent.

Birol cautioned it was still unclear if emissions had peaked after surging for much of the past 60 years.

But because CO2 lingers in the atmosphere and accumulates, emissions need to fall sharply to avoid global warming, scientists still say.

The hope among some is that carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels will fall to zero by 2050, but pollution from farming or deforestation is much harder to eradicate.  [Pilita Clark / Financial Times]

--Shares in Oracle jumped 6% on Thursday after the company reported better-than-expected results for its latest quarter (fiscal Q3), while at the same time saying it was on the verge of showing a profit from its move into cloud computing.  CEO Safra Catz said revenues from the cloud would top software licenses in the fiscal year ending in June, a major turning point for the company.

Revenues, however, came in below expectations, up just 2% from a year before.  The shares rose, though, not just because of the positive outlook for the cloud business, but also the company increased its dividend 27% and beat estimates on earnings.

Meanwhile, Oracle’s traditional software licensing business fell a further 16% to $1.4bn.

--Intel announced a major acquisition, that of Israel’s Mobileye for $15 billion.  Mobileye is working with many of the world’s biggest automakers to pave the way for self-driving cars and trucks.  It is a leader in the development of computer visions and machine learning, data analysis, localization and mapping for advanced driver assistance systems.

Great move for Intel.  Mobileye’s founders first came up with a technology to alert drivers to obstacles.  Now it is using all this accumulated data to pave the way for self-driving vehicles.

This is also Israel’s biggest-ever corporate acquisition.

--GoPro announced it was slashing 270 full-time jobs to lower operating expenses after mounting quarterly losses.  The company has a workforce of 1,550 – including in Europe.  The stock has sucked after demand for its action cameras fell when people realized there are only so many snowboarder and downhill ski adventures one can watch.  [From a 2014 high of $87 to about $8.50 today.]

Instead, catch BBC America’s “Planet Earth2,” mused the editor, who is already bemoaning there are just two episodes left.

If you haven’t been watching this, you can easily see all the episodes online (or on Demand, I guess).  It is truly phenomenal.  And make sure the kids watch!

--Shares in chicken producers fell anew after a second case of the bird flu was confirmed in Tennessee; both farms affiliated with Tyson Foods.  The two were located less than two miles apart and the chickens there are being euthanized in the hope of preventing the spread of the disease.

The company reiterated in a statement: “This is a bird health issue and not a food safety or human health concern.”

--Tesla announced it was raising $1 billion in stock and notes, but many say this isn’t enough as the electric-car company burns through cash as part of the process to gear up for production of its upcoming Model 3.

Tesla had $3 billion in cash on its balance sheet at yearend, but it plans to spend $2 billion to $2.5 billion in the first half of the year.  That leaves little buffer for losses stemming from production delays, or for the company’s cash-sucking solar business.

--Billionaire hedge fund operator Bill Ackman sold his disastrous stake in Valeant Pharmaceuticals, and won’t seek re-election to the drug maker’s board, bowing out after the shares hit longtime lows.

Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management had amassed a massive stake in Valeant at an average price of $196 a share.  By contrast, the hedge fund sold roughly 27 million remaining shares at an average price of about $11 each, as reported by CNBC.  Forbes reported the loss totals nearly $4 billion.

--The fallout from President Trump’s executive orders on immigration is having a direct impact on U.S. tourism.  As the Los Angeles Times’ Barbara Demick reports, an example is one Canadian firm, Comfort Tour out of Toronto, that usually brought between 200 and 300 tourists to New York in March.  “This year, 11 people have signed up for the tours.”

While the seven countries included in Trump’s original order in January account for 0.1% of incoming travelers, “an atmosphere of fear at the nation’s airports – and well-publicized incidents of visitors being detained and interrogated – are scaring off people without the slightest connection to the Muslim world.”

The Toronto Star newspaper in late January published a commentary calling on Canadians to forgo unnecessary trips to the U.S. until Trump is out of office.

Tourism Economics of Wayne, Pa., is projecting that “Trump-induced losses” could affect an estimated 90,000 Americans whose jobs are directly or indirectly dependent on tourism.

New York expects to lose 300,000 foreign tourists this year, while others that could see big losses are Miami, Los Angeles and San Francisco.

[BloombergBusinessweek cites the same Tourism Economics data: “(The) U.S. can expect 4.3 million fewer visitors from abroad in 2017 from a year earlier because of anger and anxiety triggered by Trump, especially over his original ban of travelers from mostly Muslim countries.”]

A survey released Wednesday by the Washington-based Global Business Travel Assn. found that 45% of European business travel professionals say they are less likely to schedule meetings or events in the U.S. [Barbara Demick]

--The winter storm this week on the east coast did a number on the airlines, with over 5,700 flights canceled.

--Delta and United, the last two U.S. airlines to fly the Boeing 747,  have announced they will retire the planes from their fleet by the end of the year, 48 years after the jet first took flight.

Today, Boeing produces just six 747s a year and is looking at the cargo market for new customers.  Its fate was largely decided when Airbus unveiled its own jumbo jet, the 555-seat A380 in 2005, and while Boeing tried to update the 747, airlines weren’t interested in what they saw as an outdated plane.  And then twin-engine planes such as the Boeing 777 and 787, and Airbus A340 and 350, combined the perks of a wide body with greater fuel-efficiency.

Samantha Masunaga of the Los Angeles Times gave a good example of ‘yesterday’ vs. ‘today.’

“A typical 290-seat Boeing 787-9 would use about 18,400 gallons of fuel to fly from Los Angeles International Airport to London’s Heathrow Airport, according to an analysis from Leeham Co.  A 405-seat 747-8 passenger plane making the same trip would use about 33,000 gallons.”

Now Airbus is facing issues with its A380, the flying hot dog, with no net orders last year.

Meanwhile, UPS ordered 14 new 747-8 cargo jets for its air shipping service.  Customers like the hinged nose door for accommodating larger loads.  And if you stowaway on it, you still have the upstairs cocktail lounge!

But Boeing needs more orders than just UPS’s, and now it’s been getting pushback on the heavily modified Air Force One plane, as it seeks to develop a new version.

It was back in 1966 that Pan American placed the first order for the 747, ordering 25 of them.  The aircraft entered commercial service in 1970, flying from New York to London on Pan Am.

--This season for Saturday Night Live has been its best in total viewers in 24 years, with the show’s ratings up 21 percent from last year in the 18-49 demographic and up 26 percent in total viewers (to 11 million). 

The next original episode scheduled for April 8 has Louis C.K. as host, which is guaranteed fun for those of us with a sense of humor.

Foreign Affairs

North Korea: On a visit to South Korea, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the United States’ policy of “strategic patience” with North Korea is over, and suggested it may decide to take preemptive military action.   Tillerson said the option was “on the table” if the threat from the North’s weapons program reached a level requiring it.

Tillerson also said the U.S. was exploring a range of new diplomatic and economic measures, while defending the deployment of the new THAAD missile system in South Korea.

Earlier in Japan, Tillerson said 20 years of efforts aimed at persuading North Korea to abandon its nuclear ambitions had failed.  The North Korean Embassy then held an extraordinary news conference in Beijing to blame the potential for nuclear war on the United States, vowing to continue with its nuclear testing program.

Japan’s defense chief told parliament this month that he would not rule out a “first strike” capability, which would be a major departure from Japan’s postwar pacifist traditions. The U.S. could also install the same THAAD missile defense system it is deploying in South Korea in Japan.

As David Sanger and William Broad wrote in an extensive New York Times essay two weeks ago, the threats from North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs “are far more resilient than many experts thought,” and pose a great danger.  The United States also still does not have the ability to effectively counter those threats.

Remember, “Flight tests of interceptors based in Alaska and California had an overall failure rate of 56 percent, under near-perfect conditions.  Privately, many experts warned the system would fare worse in real combat.”

So this is why the United States has been trying to remotely manipulate data inside North Korea’s missile systems because, today, we have no real alternative.

Joby Warrick of the Washington Post regarding Pyongyang’s quest for an ICBM:

“The ICBM program is real,” (said Jeffrey) Lewis, (a North Korean weapons expert), “they’ve showed us their static engine test.  They showed us the mock-up of the nuclear warhead. They have done everything short of actually testing the ICBM.  When they do test it, the first time it will probably fail.  But eventually it will work. And when it works, people are going to freak out.”

Meanwhile, earlier this week, North Korea warned the U.S. of “merciless” attacks if the USS Carl Vinson infringes on its sovereignty or dignity during U.S.-South Korean drills.  F-18 fighter jets took off from the flight deck of the nuclear-powered carrier in a display of U.S. firepower.

Lastly, South Korea is set to hold a snap presidential election on May 9 to replace disgraced former leader Park Geun-hye, who was impeached a week ago Friday.

Iraq/Syria/ISIS/Russia/Turkey: Two suicide bomb attacks in Damascus on Wednesday claimed at least 31 lives, in the second such spate of bombings in the Syrian capital in five days. The first suicide bomber targeted the Palace of Justice, the main courthouse in central Damascus near the Old City. The second suicide blast struck a restaurant nearby.

On Saturday, at least 74 were killed, mostly Iraqi Shiites on a pilgrimage to a site in Damascus.  This one was claimed by an alliance of jihadist groups known as Tahrir al-Sham (an al-Qaeda affiliate).  [There was no claim of responsibility for Wednesday’s attacks.]  The Assad regime has to be quaking in its boots at attacks inside the capital that heretofore has been largely immune from the violence all around it.

This week the U.N.’s High Commissioner for Human Rights, Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein, described Syria as “a torture chamber, a place of savage horror and absolute injustice.”

An estimated 470,000 Syrians have been killed in the six-year civil war, according to the Syrian Center for Policy Research.

4.9 million have fled the country.  6.3 million are internally displaced.  13.5 million require humanitarian assistance.

But the international community has remained divided between a pro-government bloc led by Russia and Iran, and a pro-opposition bloc led by the United States, Turkey and Gulf nations, along with European countries.

But now Turkey is working with former rival Russia on peace talks and the Trump administration is showing little interest in being part of negotiations to end the conflict.

However, the U.S. has drawn up early plans to deploy up to 1,000 more troops into northern Syria in the coming weeks, ahead of the offensive on the Islamic State’s de facto capital of Raqqa, according to U.S. defense officials.

The deployment, if approved by Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and President Trump, would double the number of U.S. forces in Syria and increase the potential for direct combat involvement.

The new troops, if sent, would be focused on supporting Kurdish and Arab fighters in the north.  About 500 U.S. Special Ops forces are already in Syria fighting alongside the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces).

Lastly, on Friday the U.S. said it carried out an airstrike in Syria against an Al-Qaeda meeting but denied deliberately targeting a mosque where activists said 46 people were killed.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which I greatly respect, said most of the dead in the Thursday evening raid on Al-Jineh, in the northern province of Aleppo, were civilians.

Colonel John J. Thomas, spokesman for U.S. Central Command, said, “We did not target a mosque, but the building that we did target – which was where the meeting took place – is about 50 feet from a mosque that is still standing.”

But an AFP correspondent saw the rescue workers in white helmets trying to dig people out of the rubble and much of the building, “identified by a black placard outside as a mosque, had been flattened.”  [AFP]  It’s complicated...like everything else in this theater.

In Iraq, the battle for Mosul grinds on.  The U.S.-backed Iraqi military is making progress, but the last of ISIS’ fighters have dug in. The Old City – with its narrow streets and closely spaced buildings where hundreds of thousands of civilians continue to live – is now being fought over.  But with all major roads cut off out of the city, ISIS cannot replace fighters who are being killed.

More than 68,000 of an estimated 750,000 people have fled west Mosul.

Israel: In a serious escalation of the crisis in Syria, Israel shot down a Syrian missile, the first major test of its most advanced anti-missile system, Arrow.

A surface-to-air missile (SAM) was intercepted by Arrow, which is designed to stop long-range ballistic missiles.  The intercepted SAM is reported to have come down in Jordan. Two others may have landed in Israel with no reports of injuries.

What is rare is that Israel admitted it launched air strikes in Syria on Friday, though there have been reports of at least four previous raids against suspected Hizbullah weapons shipments since last December.  Syria then targeted the Israeli jets on their way home.

But Israel is signaling that if the weapons shipments to Hizbullah continue, it will escalate its air campaign.

Syria’s state news agency Sana said on Friday that Syrian forces had shot down one of four Israeli planes that had carried out the overnight raids, but the IDF said none of its aircraft had been “compromised.”

Turkey: Editorial / Washington Post

“About 150 journalists have been thrown in jail, and about 170 media organizations closed down.  University professors are being marched in chains to prison. The government fired more than 3,000 members of the judiciary, and thousands more civil servants have been ejected from their jobs. Smartphone users are being arrested for using an encrypted app.  Sound like a purge in China or Russia? Think again. This is Turkey, a NATO member that a decade ago was regarded as a model Muslim democracy.  Now, under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it has become one of the most repressive regimes in the world.

“Since a July 15 failed coup attempt, Mr. Erdogan has launched waves of purges, claiming that the self-exiled cleric Fethullah Gulen, who lives in Pennsylvania, was behind the overthrow effort, and accusing thousands of people of subversion and belonging to terrorist organizations.  As the State Department noted in its 2016 human rights report, many were detained ‘with little clarity on the charges and evidence against them.’  The purges are accelerating as Turkey nears an April referendum on whether to give Mr. Erdogan new powers.  Meanwhile, a flood of educated bureaucrats, academics and businesspeople are desperately trying to flee Turkey to Greece or Georgia....

“Mr. Erdogan’s pursuit of expanded power in the referendum has also stirred incendiary arguments between Turkey and both Germany and the Netherlands after Turkish ministers were prevented from addressing expatriate Turks in those nations...

“Since President Trump took office, the State Department has been largely silent about Turkey’s downward spiral.  While the 2016 human rights report was filled with detail about the crackdowns, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson didn’t attend the March 3 release of it.  Mr. Tillerson has asserted that he cares about protecting human rights abroad, but what will he do about it?”

Separately, a United Nations report reveals that around 1,200 residents and 800 members of Turkish security forces were killed in 18 months of security operations in Turkey’s largely Kurdish southeast. The Turkish government disputes the findings, though it doesn’t say exactly what is in dispute.

Afghanistan: The toll in the March 8 ISIS assault on a Kabul military hospital rose to 50.

Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham / Washington Post

“(After) more than a decade-and-a-half of war, Gen. John W. Nicholson, commander of U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan, told the Senate Armed Services Committee last month that the war in Afghanistan is in a stalemate.  President Trump and his administration must treat Afghanistan with the same urgency as the fight against the Islamic State, or this stalemate risks sliding into strategic failure.

“This month, two simultaneous suicide attacks by the Taliban in Kabul killed at least 16 people and wounded more than 40. In northern Afghanistan, the Taliban overran another district.  These setbacks came on the heels of disturbing losses across the country. Nicholson recently confirmed an inspector general report that the Afghan government controls or influences just 57 percent of the country’s districts, down from 72 percent just over a year ago.

“Make no mistake: Afghans are fighting ferociously to defend their country from our common enemies.  At the same time, we must recognize that the United States is still at war in Afghanistan against the terrorist enemies who attacked our nation on Sept. 11 and their ideological heirs.  We must act accordingly.

“Unfortunately, in recent years, we have tied the hands of our military in Afghanistan. Instead of trying to win, we have settled for just trying not to lose....

“While we have settled for (this strategy), the risk to U.S. and Afghan forces has only grown worse as the terrorist threat has intensified....

“The U.S. objective in Afghanistan is the same now as it was in 2001: to prevent terrorists from using the country’s territory to attack our homeland....

“The United States has been at war in Afghanistan for nearly 16 years.  Weary as some Americans may be of this long conflict, it is imperative that we see our mission through to success.  We have seen what happens when we fail to be vigilant.  The threats we face are real. And the stakes are high – not just for the lives of the Afghan people and the stability of the region, but for America’s national security.”

Libya: Russia has denied it has deployed special forces to Egypt as part of an effort to prop up Libyan strong man Khalifa Haftar.  Haftar’s forces launched an assault on key oil facilities on the Libyan coast and claimed to have retaken positions from Islamist militias.  There is no hard evidence Russian forces took part in the operation, but it seems clear Russia is willing to back Haftar for now.  He has traveled to the Kremlin a number of times asking for help in fighting the Islamists.

After its intervention in Syria, Russia is enjoying being looked at as a strong power-broker and deal-maker in the region and Russia has an economic interest in Libya, with Russia’s state-owned oil giant, Rosneft, getting involved.

Haftar operates in eastern Libya, thus the reason for (potentially) staging troops in Egypt.

The U.S. supports the Government of National Accord (GNA), which has split from Haftar.

China: In his annual press conference focused on economic policy, Premier Li Keqiang garnered attention with his signoff.  “See you again, if there’s a chance,” Li said at the end of the nationally televised event that concluded China’s annual legislative session.

Well, I’ve been telling you for some time now that President Xi Jinping, as he gears up for a second five-year term, or more, may do so without Li.  Normally it’s a sure thing that the premier tags along the second term, but it certainly isn’t this time.

As for his comments...Li highlighted the damage that any trade war between the U.S. and China would inflict, saying American companies would be the first to suffer.

“We don’t want to see any trade war breaking out...That wouldn’t make our trade fairer.  Our hope on the Chinese side is that no matter what bumps this relationship hits, we hope it’ll continue to move forward in a positive direction.”

As to North Korea, Li warned “tensions on the Korean peninsula may lead to conflict” and bring harm to all parties.  But, intriguingly, he made no mention of Beijing’s row with Seoul and Washington over the deployment of the anti-missile system, THAAD, in South Korea.

Meanwhile, China’s annual consumer rights day turned its spotlight on U.S. company Nike for “misleading advertising and Japanese brand Muji for selling food products allegedly sourced from part of Japan affected by radiation.  The state-run China Central Television (CCTV) show – which can have brands and their corporate PR teams scurrying to take evasive action – said Nike had misled consumers over high-tech air cushions in some of its ‘Hyperdunk’ basketball shoes.”  [Adam Jourdan and Jackie Cali / Reuters]

This is a program similar to CBS’ “60 Minutes”.  The show, “315,” has previously named and shamed the likes of Apple and Volkswagen. 

On a different matter, under a proposed draft of China’s civil law as the Communist Party further tightens the space for public discourse on historical issues, damaging the reputation and honor of heroes and martyrs could be a civil offense.

Recently, a professor was forced into retirement for criticizing Mao Zedong. [Richard Nixon said Mao had godawful breath....true...]

And we learned this week that President Xi is meeting with President Trump at Mar-a-Lago for a summit sometime in April.  This is good news.

China had expressed interest in the summit being held at the estate after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe spent two days there last month.

Lastly, this just in...“The Trump administration is crafting a big new arms package for Taiwan that could include advanced rocket systems and anti-ship missiles to defend against China, U.S. officials said, a deal sure to anger Beijing.”  [David Brunnstrom and Matt Spetalnick / Reuters]

Russia: Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“While the press corps chases accusations of Russian-Trump election collusion and illegal Obama Administration wiretaps, few noticed the Pentagon’s first public confirmation last week that the Kremlin is violating the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF).

“General Paul Selva, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress that Russia has deployed a land-based cruise missile that violates the ‘spirit and intent’ of that arms pact.  ‘The system itself presents a risk to most of our facilities in Europe and we believe that the Russians have deliberately deployed it in order to pose a threat to NATO and to facilities within the NATO area of responsibility,’ General Selva told the House Armed Services Committee.

“The public admission raises the stakes for any grand bargain that President Trump contemplates with strongman Vladimir Putin.  It also calls into question, again, the wisdom of arms-control deals with adversaries that will inevitably cheat.  The INF pact was the Ronald Reagan-Mikhail Gorbachev deal that removed mid-range missiles from Europe and supposedly signaled a new era of good relations.  Mr. Putin has other ideas....

“Arms control rivals catastrophic climate change in the former President’s belief system.  The Pentagon’s public declaration is a good sign that perhaps the Trump Administration will take a more skeptical view of parchment pledges from authoritarian rulers who want to dominate their neighbors.”

Separately, Jonathan Easley of The Hill reports: “Former U.S. ambassadors to Russia and Foreign Service diplomats are angered by what they view as a ‘witch-hunt’ pursuing Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak, warning that ‘hysteria’ over Russia in Congress and the media will undermine U.S. interests abroad....

“A CNN report alleged that ‘current and former U.S. intelligence officials have described Kislyak as a top spy and recruiter of spies.’

“ ‘That’s total horseshit,’ said Wayne Merry, a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council who worked as a U.S. diplomat to Russia and has known Kislyak for decades.  ‘It’s a witch-hunt with paranoia and hysteria at its core.  Normally it’s the Russians who become paranoid and hysterical. That the conspiracy theories and paranoia is coming from Americans makes me very uncomfortable.’”

The last two U.S. ambassadors to Russia defended Kislayk: Michael McFaul, a fierce Trump critic appointed by President Obama, and John Beyrle, who was appointed by President George W. Bush but served for three years under Obama.

Both told The Hill that Kislyak was merely doing his job “and that there is no evidence of any illicit collusion between him and the Trump campaign.”

At the same time, both are “extremely troubled by evidence that suggests the Russians interfered in the U.S. election” and support an independent investigation into the matter.  [Jonathan Easley]

On the Ukraine front, its national security council has halted all cargo traffic passing between government-held areas and the separatist-controlled regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.  The blockade will be in effect until the Russian-backed separatists hand over control of coal mines in Donbass and fulfill their part of the 2015 Minsk agreement.  Exceptions will be made for humanitarian cargo.

Ukraine also imposed sanctions on five Russian-owned banks operating in the country after the Russian government forced their parent groups operating in the Russian market to accept clients using passports from the breakaway “people’s republics.”

The sanctions aim to protect the interests of these banks’ customers and prevent the outflow of capital from Ukraine.

This week, nationalists in Ukraine vandalized Russian bank branch offices in Kiev and other cities.

Cuba: I meant to quote Mary Anastasia O’Grady from her recent op-ed in the Wall Street Journal in my last WIR but ran out of time:

“Score another kill for the Cuban military dictatorship: Last month it eliminated Afro-Cuban dissident Hamell Santiago Mas Hernandez, an inmate of one of its most notoriously brutal prisons.

“The remarkable thing was not the death of a critic.  That’s routine in a police state that holds all the guns, bayonets, money and food.  What’s noteworthy is that the world hardly blinked, which is to say that two years after President Obama’s détente with Raul Castro, the regime still dispatches adversaries with impunity. It also routinely blocks visitors to the island, even of the leftist stripe – in order to keep the population isolated.

“ ‘Normalization,’ to the contrary, Cuba is the same totalitarian hellhole that it has been for the past 58 years.

“Forty-five-year-old Mas Hernandez was a member of the Patriotic Union of Cuba, a group working for a peaceful transition to democracy.  He was healthy when he was arrested in June and sentenced to four years in prison for ‘disrespect for authority’ – a k a failure to bow to the masters of the slave population.  His real crime was advocating for a free Cuba while black. There are few more lethal combinations.

“The black Cuban is supposed to show gratitude to the revolution to sustain the myth that he has been elevated by communism.  The grim reality is the opposition, but heaven help those who dare to say so....

“His death ought to prick the conscience of the free world. But while the island is crawling with foreign news bureaus, the story has not appeared in the English-language press.   President Obama may have opened Cuba to more tourists, but the regime takes pains to keep its 11 million captive souls and their misery invisible.

“The Castro family is a crime syndicate and many American businesses want a piece of the action. Sheraton Four Points now runs a hotel owned by the military regime.  The luggage company Tumi spent the winter promoting Cuba travel on its website.  (Note to self: Buy that new suitcase from someone who isn’t blind to tyranny.)  The upshot is that more U.S. dollars flow to Cuba’s military coffers than ever before.”

Well, I’ve written the last few weeks how U.S. airlines are already cutting back their schedules.  The place sucks.  Americans are learning they can spend their dollars elsewhere.  You want to see Cuba?  Go to Miami...Free Cuba. 

And may all Americans finally understand what a terrible deal President Obama cut with the thugs.  We literally received nothing in return.  The Castros will all rot in hell.

Famine: The U.N. said this week the world is facing its biggest humanitarian crisis since the end of World War II and it’s not Syria.

20 million face starvation and famine in Yemen, Somalia, South Sudan and Nigeria, the U.N. warned.

7 million face starvation in Yemen (of the 18.8m there needing assistance), 6.2m in Somalia, 4.9m in South Sudan, and 1.8m in northeastern Nigeria.

260,000 died from a famine in Somalia in 2012 and the U.N. is scrambling to act faster this time.  But they say they need $4.4 billion over the next four months to keep the crisis from escalating, and while the U.S. could easily kick in its fair share, this is where the Trump budget priorities could come into play.  We’ll see.

Random Musings

--In the biggest non-story of the year, MSNBC host Rachel Maddow said she received two pages of Donald Trump’s 2005 tax return from journalist David Cay Johnston, who said on her show that he received them in the mail.

The returns, which MSNBC posted on its website after Maddow discussed them on her program, showed Trump paid $38 million in taxes on more than $150 million in income, an effective rate of 25 percent, with Trump writing off $100 million in losses to reduce his federal taxes.

The White House responded before Maddow even went on the air, saying Trump took into account “large scale depreciation for construction.”  In addition to the federal income taxes in 2005, the White House statement said, he paid “tens of millions of dollars in other taxes, such as sales and excise taxes and employment taxes, and this illegally published return proves just that.”

There is zero Trump did wrong. Nothing in the returns suggests he has done any business with Russian companies and banks, either.  Nor did they provide much information about his businesses other than what we already know.

What we did learn is that the vast bulk of the federal income tax he paid in 2005, $31 million, was paid under the alternative minimum tax, which Trump wants to abolish.

The AMT is the bane of the wealthy as it prevents them from paying no income tax at all.  Without it, Trump would have paid about $5 million in regular taxes, plus nearly $2 million in self-employment taxes, on $153 million in income in ’05.

As to the stories on who leaked the returns, including the ones that have Trump doing so himself because these make him look good, I’m not wasting any space on it at this time. 

--Prosecutor Preet Bharara, Manhattan U.S. Attorney for the Southern District, was fired by Attorney General Jeff Sessions a day after refusing to return a phone call from President Trump, according to a report.  Bharara was one of 46 federal prosecutors, all holdovers from the Obama administration (appointed by him and still active), who were asked to leave as is normal when a new president takes office. 

Bharara said rules prevented him from taking the call, so he called a Trump aide instead.  He had announced that he wouldn’t resign, having been supposedly told by Trump back in November that he could stay on.  There wasn’t any word on what Trump wanted to talk to Bharara about.

So it’s not clear if the firing of Bharara had anything to do with potential investigations into the Trump administration or the president’s businesses, as some Democrats on Capitol Hill intimated, but, again, this was a normal move, though Bharara was an admittedly highly successful prosecutor in a war on corruption in New York State, as well as a war on Wall Street.

Various watchdog groups, according to the Washington Post, have been asking Bharara to investigate if Trump had received money or other benefits from foreign governments through his businesses.

Prior to becoming U.S. attorney, Bharara had worked for Democratic Minority Leader Sen. Charles Schumer as a top aide.  Schumer dismissed rumors that Trump had Bharara fired as political revenge aimed at the senator.

Michael Goodwin / New York Post:

“(All) the media narratives are pretty much the same.

“To wit, Bharara was an independent and crusading prosecutor who was fired by President Trump for one of two reasons: Trump wanted to protect himself from possible prosecution or was guilty of gross incompetence.  Either way, Bharara was the hero and Trump the villain.

“The only wrench in the nursery rhyme is that other facts point to other possible conclusions.  Let’s review a few of the inconvenient ones, starting in late November....

“While most news accounts said that Sen. Chuck Schumer urged Trump to keep Bharara, The Times, citing an anonymous source, added a detail: ‘Mr. Trump also asked Mr. Schumer how best to reach Mr. Bharara, and the senator provided Mr. Trump with Mr. Bharara’s direct line.’

“Well, then, since the Senate minority leader had a direct line to the federal prosecutor in his home district, it is reasonable to assume that Schumer used that line on occasion.  Did they discuss cases?  Politics?

“Neither would be surprising. Bharara had worked for Schumer in the Senate, and Schumer had recommended that President Barack Obama elevate his young staffer to U.S. attorney, which Obama did in 2009.

“And now, thanks again to Schumer’s recommendation to Trump, Bharara would get to keep his lofty perch despite the tradition of each new president replacing federal prosecutors with his own appointees.

“CNN even reported that Trump offered to keep Bharara on as a personal favor to Schumer, hoping it would help break the partisan ice in Washington.

“In any event, it’s certain that Bharara owed his last two jobs to Schumer, the ultimate political animal, and yet we are to believe that Bharara was so offended by even the mere hint of politics that he refused Trump’s order to resign, and demanded to be fired.

“Count me as disappointed that Trump did not keep Bharara at the Southern District long enough to finish the extended probe of Mayor de Blasio, the trial of people close to Gov. Cuomo and the Anthony Weiner child-pornography investigation.

“But Bharara’s political grandstanding on the way out the door is doubly disappointing. In an instant, he went from white knight to a member of the Democrats’ anti-Trump resistance movement....

“I have saluted Bharara as a one-man wrecking crew against political corruption, but I’m left with the feeling that he developed a case of Comey-itis. Like FBI Director Jim Comey, Bharara acted as if he was too big to fire.

“By refusing to follow the traditional practice of submitting his resignation when the president requested it – that’s what it means to serve ‘at the pleasure of the president’ – he challenged Trump’s constitutional authority. He was out of bounds....

“Because of his defiance, speculation is swirling that Bharara will soon enter politics.  I’d say he already has.”

Bharara’s interim successor is his close friend and deputy U.S. attorney, Joon Kim, who has been deeply involved in the office’s public-corruption cases.

So I wrote the above up on Wednesday and then on Thursday we learned that Mayor de Blasio and his aides will not be charged with federal crimes related to their fundraising, as announced by Kim.  In a statement, his office said they  had investigated “several circumstances in which Mayor de Blasio and others acting on his behalf solicited donations from individuals who sought official favors from the city, after which the mayor made or directed inquiries to relevant city agencies on behalf of those donors.”

But Kim indicated the chances of winning a conviction were not enough to bring a case, in part because the mayor and his aides did not personally profit, plus recent court rulings found politicians could accept gifts.

De Blasio is running for re-election this year and that was another reason Kim closed the case.  Now, others who were thinking of getting in the race won’t.  He is the odds-on favorite to win a second term.

Preet Bharara, by the way, had reached the same decision Kim made before his departure and a key factor was the Supreme Court decision from June – overturning the corruption conviction of ex-Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell.  This is now being played by lawyers for ex-New York State Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver in his appeal of his 2015 Bharara-led corruption conviction.

McDonnell had accepted $175,000 in luxury gifts, but the Supreme Court ruled that he had given little more in return than setting up a few meetings and phone calls.

The Supreme Court ruled that only concrete quid pro quos – where a politician pockets gifts in exchange for official acts, like signing a law, that would then qualify as a bribe.

But wait...there’s more!  Late Friday, ProPublica reported, via the New York Post, that Bharara was looking into allegations that Health and Human Services Sec. Tom Price had improperly traded health care stocks while he was a member of the House.  Price has always maintained he broke no laws.  

--The New York Post reported Gov. Andrew Cuomo hired two Florida fundraisers, a sign he’s building a national network to launch a presidential bid.  One is a former Hillary Clinton money man.

Cuomo, 59, has repeatedly said he is not interested in higher office, and that’s he’s focused on his re-election bid in 2018 for a third term, but of course he’s running, as I’ve been saying for a while now, as long as he’s cleared in the ongoing corruption scandal swirling around him, and now this looks likely.

--The Senate on Wednesday confirmed former Sen. Dan Coats to serve as the new director of national intelligence.  The vote was 85-12. The DNI oversees the 16 federal agencies referred collectively as the intelligence community.

--Iowa Republican Congressman Steve King received a ton of heat, including from fellow Republicans, for a tweet he made, sharing a story by the Netherlands’ far-right Geert Wilders.  King tweeted:  “Wilders understands that culture and demographics are our destiny.  We can’t restore our civilization with somebody else’s.”

Last July, King had questioned what nonwhites have contributed to civilization at a panel discussion about the racial makeup of the Republican Party.

“I’d ask you to go back through history and figure out where are these contributions that have been made by these other categories of people that you are talking about,” he said.  “Where did any other subgroup of people contribute more to civilization?”

In 2013, King said that for every successful child of undocumented immigrants, there were 100 others who were drug mules with “calves the size of cantaloupes” from hauling marijuana.

I strongly condemn all the above, and I’m glad many fellow Republicans in Congress did as well.

--Last weekend in an interview, Trump senior counselor Kellyanne Conway once again made a fool of herself when she said the “surveillance” of President Trump and Trump Tower may be broader than even the president suggested.

“What I can say is there are many ways to surveil each other.  You can surveil someone through their phones, certainly through their television sets – any number of ways.”  Monitoring, she went on, could be done with “microwaves that turn into cameras,” adding: “We know this is a fact of modern life.”

That’s it...I’m covering all the knobs on my microwave.  Freakin’ Russians!

Now of course Conway was conflating the WikiLeaks material that said the CIA had all kinds of monitoring capabilities, including through one’s television and computer.

--The Washington Post reported: “Nearly three dozen people in the United States have been diagnosed with a deadly and highly drug-resistant fungal infection since federal health officials first warned U.S. clinicians last June to be on the lookout for the emerging pathogen that has been spreading around the world.

“The fungus, a strain of a kind of yeast known as Candida auris, has been reported in a dozen countries on five continents starting in 2009, when it was found in an ear infection in a patient in Japan. Since then, the fungus has been reported in Colombia, India, Israel, Kenya, Kuwait, Pakistan, South Korea, Venezuela and the United Kingdom.

“Unlike garden variety yeast infections, this one causes serious bloodstream infections, spreads easily from person to person in health-care settings, and survives for months on skin and for weeks on bed rails, chairs and other hospital equipment.  Some strains are resistant to all three major classes of antifungal drugs. Based on information from  a limited number of patients, up to 60 percent of people with these infections have died.  Many of them also had serious underlying illnesses.

“Those at greatest risk are individuals who have been in intensive care for a long time or who are on ventilators or have central line catheters inserted into a large vein.”

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, New York has the largest number of infections, with at least 28 cases.  [Lena H. Sun / WP]

--My friend David P. has a high-school-age daughter who is currently on a rather ambitious trip to Rwanda, and aside from him being worried as a parent, we were talking about how they weren’t allowed to take their cellphones, so as David said, “they may find the world a lot more interesting with their heads up.”

--From the New York Post’s Page Six:

“It was love at first leak!  ‘Baywatch’ star Pamela Anderson has gone from slow motion runs on the beach to mysterious late night visits to the embassy where WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange is holed up.

“Anderson was most recently spotted entering the Ecuadorian safe space in London Thursday night wearing a camel overcoat, snug black top – and either a really short skirt, or no pants at all.”

Huh.  Alas, Ms. Anderson is quite the airhead.

“(Assange) is on the side of every civilian,” she said in her blog post this week.  “And, he is exposing corruption in governments we elect.  People need to understand that.”

He just doesn’t expose corruption in Russia and China, Pamela.

--The Great Barrier Reef is suffering another potential die-off, after huge sections, stretching across hundreds of miles of its most pristine northern sector, were found to be dead last year, killed by overheated seawater.  Now southerly sections are “bleaching,” a precursor to a die-off.

Terry P. Hughes, director of an Australian center for coral reef studies and lead author of a paper that was published this week in the journal Nature, said, “We didn’t expect to see this level of destruction to the Great Barrier Reef for another 30 years.”

This is a true tragedy.  Remember, coral reefs are a telling sign of the health of the seas overall.

It becomes a humanitarian disaster if hundreds of millions who rely for their protein on reef fish around the world lose this food source.

--So a much-hyped late-winter storm, “Stella,” failed to materialize in the form as forecast for the east coast’s major cities such as Washington, Philadelphia, New York and Boston.  New York received 7 ½ inches, rather than the 18 to 24 forecast in the 24 hours before the storm hit, and it was the same where I live...7 to 9 instead of much more.

It was just another classic case of the storm tracking far closer to the coast, allowing warm air to come in, than forecast.  We all understand this.

But the scandal, and it truly is one, is the National Weather Service admitted the next day it exaggerated the dire forecast – but decided not to change it when its meteorologists held a conference call Monday afternoon about computer models that dramatically cut predicted totals.

Heck, I’m a junior weather geek and I was studying the storm’s development on radar, off the Carolina coast, and I could see it wasn’t going to be as bad by the time I went to bed Monday night.

So Greg Carbin, chief of forecast operations at the Weather Prediction Center in Maryland, told the Associated Press: “Out of extreme caution, we decided to stick with higher amounts.  I actually think in the overall scheme that the actions [by states and cities] taken in advance of the event were exceptional.”

Granted, schools still should have been closed in the area, 7 to 9 inches is significant, and we had a ton of sleet on top so driving was hazardous, but this was totally a case of fake news.

As for those areas in Pennsylvania’s Pocono Mountains and upstate New York that did receive 20+ inches, well, my sympathies.  [Bolton Valley Ski Area, located in the Green Mountains of Vermont, reported 58 inches as of Thursday, while Binghamton, N.Y. had 35.]

The bigger story now is that for the upper Midwest and Northeast, there are no warm temperatures in the immediate forecast, the ground is covered with snow and ice (with more on the way), baseball season starts soon, golf courses won’t be playable until much later than initially planned, and it sucks!!!

This week, Punxsutawney Phil was heard muttering under his breath, “Where does one go to get his reputation back?”

---

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces...and all the fallen.

God bless America.

---

Gold $1228
Oil $48.72

Returns for the week 3/13-3/17

Dow Jones  +0.1%  [20914]
S&P 500  +0.2%  [2378]
S&P MidCap  +1.2%
Russell 2000  +1.9%
Nasdaq  +0.7%  [5901]

Returns for the period 1/1/17-3/17/17

Dow Jones  +5.8%
S&P 500  +6.2%
S&P MidCap  +4.3%
Russell 2000  +2.5%
Nasdaq  +9.6%

Bulls  53.4
Bears  17.5  [Source: Investors Intelligence]

Have a great week.

Brian Trumbore

---