05/09/2002
World-Ending Scenarios
In my opinion, we humans need to quit all this stupid fighting among ourselves and concentrate on things that threaten our very existence. My favorite threat is the possibility of an asteroid or comet slamming into our planet, taking out the human race, as happened some 65 million years ago with the dinosaurs. My concern over our future was heightened by couple of articles in Discover magazine. I''m ashamed to admit that I found one of the articles in my previously untouched 20th anniversary issue of Discover magazine dated October 2000. I''m just a tad behind!
The article, by Corey S. Powell, was entitled "Twenty Ways the World Could End Suddenly". Now there''s a title guaranteed to brighten one''s day! He grouped the possible catastrophic scenarios into four categories: natural disasters, human-triggered disasters, willful self-destruction and a greater force directed against us. In the last category, Powell cites as threat number 20 what I would call the Bob Newhart scenario. Thanks to Brian Trumbore, my wife and I had the pleasure of seeing Newhart perform at a local theater a few weeks ago. You may recall that Newhart had several different TV series. The final episode of one series, in which Newhart was an innkeeper, ended with Newhart waking up in bed with his wife from an earlier series! He told that wife that he had this strange dream, which consisted of the entire second series. Powell''s analogous version is that we''ll wake up from all this and find that our existence was just a dream.
Somehow, number 20 doesn''t worry me at all; nor does number 18, an alien invasion, or number 19, divine intervention. Actually, in the divine category, Powell did include the possibility that some group, presuming to act on God''s behalf, might perform some dastardly act - eerily close to September 11. Powell''s self-destruction scenarios included global war, robots taking over and mass insanity due to an extension of our life spans to perhaps 200 years. Under human-triggered disasters global warming, ecological collapse, biotech disasters and a couple of others round out the bill.
Some of these are rather disturbing possibilities, but it''s really the natural disasters that I''m concerned about. Here, Powell''s threats included such things as huge volcanic eruptions extending over a prolonged period, wandering black holes headed our way, giant solar flares and gamma ray bursts from nearby mergers of collapsing stars, a global epidemic and at number 1, asteroid impact - my favorite.
However, after reading an article in a more recent Discover, next month''s June 2002 issue, I''ve decided that I should temper my concern over an asteroid impact and pay attention to the more immediate environmental threats. The article, "What Wiped Out the Dinosaurs?" is by Edwin Dobb. I almost skipped over the article, thinking that I already knew the answer, namely, the aforementioned asteroid. Then I noticed that the article mentioned Bozeman, Montana and Jack Horner, one of my favorite characters. Without a formal college degree, this 55-year old paleontologist records among his achievements the finding of the first dinosaur egg in North America, the first evidence for dinosaur nesting and parental care, the first dinosaur embryos, uncovering the largest Tyrannosaurus rex, the largest duck-billed dinosaur, etc., etc. Horner, was also technical advisor to Steven Spielberg in the making of the movie Jurassic Park. For the past 22 years or so, Horner has been based at the Museum of the Rockies in Bozeman, Montana.
Bozeman has a special place in my heart, possibly saving my marriage of over 51 years. Many years ago, we drove out West with our two young sons. We stopped in Yellowstone for a 3- night camping experience in a tent a neighbor had insisted we take on the trip. It was our first, and last, family tenting experience. Aside from the grizzly bears, the fact our youngest son was trying to set a trap for one and the three nights of severe thunderstorms, our older son was sick and not reacting favorably to the sulfurous odor of the bubbling springs.
I too became ill and the morning of our departure my wife, disgusted with my ineptitude, had to figure out how to fold up the wet tent. (I''ve always had trouble wrapping Christmas presents, let alone tents!) She was not a happy camper, literally, and threatened to fly home. Fortunately, there were no planes within reach that morning and we drove to Bozeman. There we found a very comfortable, dry motel. Everyone''s spirits, notably my wife''s, were revived and we continued on to Canada, the tent remaining in its carrier the rest of the trip.
Montana is also the site of the Hell Creek Formation, a treasure trove of dinosaur fossils exposed when the last ice cap retreated. The beauty of the site is also that the layers available for study include the periods before, during and after the asteroid impact of 65 million years ago. Horner and others have now shifted their attention away from the dinosaurs to the animal and plant life present before and after the asteroid impact. Among the other workers are William Clemens of Berkeley, Nan Crystal Arens of Hobart and William Smith Colleges and Joseph Hartman of the University of North Dakota. We''ll see that their studies have an alarming message for us today.
Clemens and his coworkers were most interested in the survivors of the asteroid impact and the recovery of life after the impact. Many animals did survive the impact. The most important for us were those tiny mammals about the size of a mouse that were our ancestors. Crocodiles survived, turtles survived and birds (the winged dinosaurs) survived. I was surprised to learn that frogs and salamanders also survived. Today, we read and hear repeated stories of frogs dying out all over the world. I don''t know about you, but I''m now a bit uneasy. If frogs could survive the asteroid impact, what''s going on today that threatens to wipe them out? And what does it mean for our own survival?
Let''s go back millions of years before the asteroid hit. North America looked quite different. There was the Western Interior Seaway, a body of water that extended from the Gulf of Mexico to Canada and that periodically advanced and retreated. A few million years before the asteroid, the Seaway retreated and the continent would have had pretty much the shape it has today. All this changing of the land and seascapes must have put a good deal of stress on the plant and animal life in the Hell Creek area. In fact, what Arens found is that before the extinction the number of species of flowering plants had dropped from over a hundred to just ten!
Now consider what effect this might have had on the dinosaurs. Take Tyrannosaurus rex, a carnivore who liked to dine on other dinosaurs such as Triceratops. But Triceratops was a plant eater and there were fewer plants to eat. This is not a great situation for either animal - with fewer Triceratops and other plant eaters, T. rex also had a problem finding a snack. Could it be that they were set up for extinction before the asteroid came along? That''s the scenario that''s emerging.
Enter the mollusks such as clams and snails, Joseph Hartman''s field of expertise. While the Seaway advanced and retreated, there were always freshwater streams and rivers with an abundance of freshwater mollusks such as clams and snails. The number of freshwater mollusks would multiply as the Seaway retreated and decline as the Seaway advanced, bearing its saltwater. Hartman found that, like the flowering plants, the freshwater mollusks experienced a 90 percent decline in population before the asteroid hit. This suggests that the Seaway was still active long after it was thought to have disappeared from the continent. Other changes in plant life indicate that a cooling of the climate also took place around this time.
Out of these findings comes the proposal that the asteroid impact came at a time of deep environmental stress and that the impact of the asteroid, with its own environmental consequences, tipped the scale to extinction for the dinosaurs. Arens suggests that today we may be in another period of climate alteration and that our own contributions to environmental stress might be the factor that could tip the scale to another mass extinction.
Let''s keep a close watch on those frogs!
Allen F. Bortrum
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