02/02/2005
Darker Denver Skies
When I accompanied my parents on a visit to Denver, Colorado in 1941 one vivid memory stands out to this day. The memory is of how crystal clear and blue was the sky. Since that time, I’ve been to Denver a few times and have been disappointed that the sky was no different from that here in New Jersey. Somehow, even on the clearest days, the sky just doesn’t have that crisp sparkling blue hue. An exception was on 9/11/2001, when the sky rivaled my memory of 1941 Denver. Is there normally so much polluting of the air that it’s a cause for wonder when an exceptional truly clear day comes along?
A few weeks ago, I mentioned Discover magazine’s number 1 science story of 2004 - global warming. There was a very brief item in Discover on their number 43 story - solar dimming. The atmosphere has become so polluted that there is substantially less sunlight reaching the ground than there was back in 1941. You might say this could be a good thing; if not as much sunlight and heat reaches the ground it should keep down global warming. Well, there’s a good chance that you’re right, at least about the warming. Some scientists have been surprised that our Earth hasn’t heated up more than it has. Global solar dimming could be the answer.
If global dimming combats global warming, shouldn’t we work to cut out more of the sunlight reaching the ground? Well, not exactly. Pollution of our air isn’t the greatest thing for our health. Who knows how many cases of cancer, asthma or other respiratory diseases are due to pollution of our air. In my state of New Jersey, as well as most other states in the U. S., air quality does not measure up to clean air standards and there’s a lot of effort and legislation aimed at reducing air pollution.
How do pollutant particles fit into the picture of global dimming? Let’s look at clouds. Clouds form when water droplets form from water vapor in the air. The water vapor typically condenses on particles in the atmosphere. The oceans are one natural source of particles, salts carried into the air by wind and wave action. When pollutant particles are added to the naturally occurring particles, this means there are more particles in the air. There’s only so much water vapor in the air and when it condenses on a lot of particles the size of the droplets in the clouds becomes smaller. It has been found that clouds consisting of many smaller droplets reflect more of the sun’s rays back into space than clouds with fewer, larger droplets. The clouds act like mirrors, in addition to shading the ground and atmosphere below the cloud. Thus there is additional cooling.
This again sounds like a good thing but Professor V. Ramanathan calls our atmosphere an “insidious soup”, with all the soot, sulphates, and ash, etc. that we put into it. Global dimming may have actually caused a famine of monumental proportions, the 1984 Ethiopian famine, a result of a 10-year drought in a region known as the Sahel. This region is very dry most of the year and depends on a monsoon season every summer to provide water for growing crops to sustain the inhabitants for the rest of the year. The monsoon depends on the heating of the oceans north of the equator to draw the rain belt that forms at the equator northward to the Sahel.
Leon Rotstayn and his colleagues applied a climate model to the situation where pollution from Europe and North America was allowed to affect the clouds in the northern hemisphere and, sure enough, the northern hemisphere oceans cooled. In the model, the cooler northern oceans cause the rain belt to move south, not north to the Sahel. The model, if correct, confirms that pollution can affect the climate on a global scale and there is concern about how global dimming will affect other countries, notably India, where monsoons play a major role.
So, the pollution causing global dimming is not a good thing. We’ve taken steps to cut down on pollution, California being one state that has led the way. We’ve cut down emissions from our cars, we don’t burn our leaves in the fall, restrictions have been placed on some industrial pollution, etc. We may even have turned the corner in lowering the number of particles we introduce into our air. Hopefully, we’ll achieve substantial reductions in pollution in the years to come. So, we can relax, right? Not exactly!
Remember Discover’s number 1 story – global warming? If global dimming has kept down the rate of global warming, what happens if we succeed in clearing our air and letting more sunlight hit the ground? You’re right; it’s going to get hotter. Even if we cut down on emissions of greenhouse gases along with the soot and other particles, is it too late? Without global dimming, will global warming accelerate even beyond what the experts have been predicting? Time will tell.
How was global dimming discovered? It’s an intriguing story in itself. Back in the 1960s, Gerald Stanhill a biologist was involved in designing irrigation schemes for Israel and his job was to measure the intensity of the sun’s rays over Israel. He used a network of light meters to accomplish the task. In the 1980s, Stanhill decided to repeat his measurements just to check on their accuracy. He was shocked to find the sunlight had fallen by 22 percent! That’s a big deal, but publication of his results met with silence from the scientific community. But another fellow by the name of Beate Liepert in Germany also found a dimming of sunlight, in the Bavarian Alps. Both found the same thing reported elsewhere. Again the scientific community paid little or no heed. After all, the world was warming not cooling, so how could these guys be taken seriously?
Fortunately, Down Under, Michael Roderick and Graham Farquhar of Australian National University were looking at something quite simple, yet profound. They were looking at how rapidly water evaporated from a pan of water. Scientifically, the name of this area of study is called “pan evaporation rate” and, unbeknownst to most I suspect, agricultural scientists have been carrying out pan evaporation rate measurements all over the world for more than a century. All you do is put out a pan of water in the morning, come back the next morning and measure how much water you have to add to the pan to bring the water level back to what it was the morning before. That’s my kind of experiment! I could spend the rest of the day playing golf.
Apparently, results from all over the world have been published so there’s a continuing record over a long period of time. Well, in the 1990s something odd was noticed. The pan evaporation rate was going down. This was odd because, after all, the world was getting warmer and anyone knows that if you heat water it’s going to evaporate faster than if it’s cooler. However, the Australian researchers made calculations that showed that pan evaporation was not just a function of the temperature but that sunlight, wind and humidity played important roles. In fact, they found that it was those photons from the Sun hitting the surface and knocking the water molecules into the atmosphere that was the most important factor in determining how fast the water evaporated.
Suspecting that dimming of sunlight was responsible for the decreased pan evaporation, they found other pan data from Russia, the U. S. and Europe. When the pan rates were compared with the sunlight data that Beate Liepert and Gerald Stanhill had collected, the drops in pan rate and in sunlight matched perfectly. Publication of the Australians’ work last year clinched the existence of global dimming. Russia, incidentally, had the biggest drop in sunlight that I saw reported, 30 percent, down by almost a third!
I can’t help thinking; did I miss evidence of global dimming when I made those trips to Denver?
Allen F. Bortrum
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