08/08/2002
Update: Latin America
Latin America is a mess, so I figured we should take a quick look at the region, focusing in on Colombia and Brazil.
But first, as I’ve written in my “Week in Review” columns, it’s amazing how ignorant our policy makers and strategists are when it comes to the continent. After all, it’s only our freakin’ backyard, and a growing proportion of America’s own population hails from there, so when all hell breaks loose, as it has over the past year or so, you’d think our leaders would give a damn.
Heck, right after President Bush was elected, he outlined his dream of making this “The Century of the Americas.”
“We have a great vision before us: a fully democratic hemisphere, bound together by good will and free trade,” the President said. “That is a tall order. It is also the chance of a lifetime.”
And, of course, we all remember those early summits between Bush and Mexico’s Vincente Fox. You would have thought the two were brothers. But then September 11 hit and suddenly Latin America was the furthest thing from the Administration’s minds as it focused instead on the war on terror, which was understandable.
But since September, Latin America has been crumbling. Colombia’s ongoing civil war intensified, Venezuela experienced a coup attempt, Argentina’s economy collapsed, turmoil spread to Paraguay, Uruguay, Peru and Bolivia, while Brazil struggled to avoid default on its international obligations, as a left-wing politician also threatened to pull off an election upset in October.
Across the region, economies have stagnated. GDP growth was all of 0.6% in 2001 and now appears headed for negative growth in 2002. If you knew nothing else, know that this spells disaster. 40% of the people of Latin America live below the poverty line and economic growth needs to be more in the 6-8% annual range, just to keep the poverty rates from worsening as the population increases. In other words, the whole continent continues to slide into the abyss.
But who’s to blame? Everyone, starting with the governing politicians. Corruption is widespread across the board and what’s dangerous about this is faith in democratic principles is waning, big time.
Also, schools are underfinanced, hospitals aren’t being built, badly needed transportation projects aren’t completed, and the judiciary is a mess.
Columnist Michael Shifter comments, “There is rage and frustration at the inability of the political class to solve problems.”
Colin Powell adds, “There is a disenchantment with the institutions of elective government.”
The U.S. must be engaged.
So let’s just touch on a few hot spots.
--Argentina: I’ve written extensively on this topic elsewhere. All you need to know is that the collapse is so severe here, over 50% of the people are now living below the poverty line. This is the canary in the mine. A once proud people have been reduced to begging. It’s a tragedy of epic proportions.
--Venezuela: The 4th largest exporter of oil in the world has a leader, President Chavez, who survived an attempted coup last April, even though he is a certifiable nut job. But class warfare is rampant in Venezuela and Chavez was able to retake his office because of his appeal to the working class poor, of which he is a member. The oligarchs took over, for all of 24 hours, and the people rebelled. Now Chavez is trying to unify the many factions, but he’s meeting with zero success. Let alone the fact that his nation borders Colombia
--Colombia: Relations between this country and Venezuela have been going from bad to worse, as the rulers in Colombia hailed the end of the Chavez regime, only to see him return to power hours later.
More importantly, on Wednesday, August 7, Alvaro Uribe was sworn in as Colombia’s new president. Uribe, who has the support of Washington, was elected on a platform of promising to “wage war” against both the FARC guerrillas, who have been waging war on the government for decades, as well as the right- wing paramilitaries, who seek to gain control of the drug trade from FARC, as well as take some of the rebel lands. So it’s a 3- sided battle.
Uribe promises to double the size of Colombia’s Army and National Police, but that will cost $1 billion a year out of a total budget of $27 billion. So, despite receiving some $2 billion in U.S. military aid, Uribe has decided he needs to raise taxes and, additionally, he has already proposed to reduce the size of Congress by up to a half.
This latter point pisses off the very congressional members who campaigned for Uribe, as you can imagine, so it was against this backdrop that Uribe was inaugurated. What happened? A mortar shell exploded blocks from the ceremony, killing at least 12 people. There were explosions all around the presidential palace, even as the Army had established nine separate security rings around it.
Uribe himself has survived some 18 attempts on his life, but imagine what will happen to Colombia if he is ‘done in’ during his first year? He is a bold man, who deserves the United States’ full support.
Lastly, needless to say the war is doing a number on the economy. Growth will be around 1% this year and rural unemployment stands at 50%. The rebels, incidentally, have put a price on the heads of all mayors who support Uribe. Beautiful.
Brazil: And so we end here. On August 7, the IMF announced that it was pledging $30 billion in emergency aid to help reverse the decline in the currency and to re-instill investor confidence. Hopefully, it works, but it may not, and therein lies a huge problem for those, like the U.S. and its institutions, that have lent Brazil gobs of money (specifically, $hundreds of millions, for starters).
Brazil is the world’s 8th-largest economy, with a GDP of some $1.2 trillion. But, as is the case throughout the region, foreign investment has dried up and the ensuing credit crunch is cutting off Brazil and others at the worst possible time.
And then there is Luiz Inacio da Silva, a scary dude who is threatening to win the presidential election slated for October 6. Da Silva has been running for president under the banner of the leftist Workers’ Party for over 20 years, and while he claims he has moderated his views, the fact is he gives the West the creeps, and with good reason.
In the past da Silva has promised that if elected he would default on Brazil’s international obligations, unless the terms were renegotiated to his liking. Not exactly what most smart banks want to hear. As of today, however, da Silva is in the lead in the polls. This is a man who in the past has blamed the U.S., democracy and free markets, in general, for all of Brazil’s social and economic ills.
One columnist, Constantine Menges, lays out a scenario where a da Silva victory could lead to communist successes throughout Latin America, including in Peru, Ecuador and Colombia. One other potential target, Bolivia, did just elect a pro-U.S. candidate, though they have their own severe economic problems to deal with.
So there you have a brief tour of the region to our south. I haven’t said much about Mexico, whose President Fox has every right to be unhappy with the Bush Administration for failure to act on his immigration proposals, which this editor supports. But that’s a story for another day, and perhaps a different venue.
There is one good news item of the past few weeks, and that is the new “fast-track” trade approval that President Bush has been granted, allowing him to negotiate free trade pacts with our southern neighbors, with little interference from Congress. But in an atmosphere that is increasingly anti-American, this may not be so easy to accomplish.
For now, continue to keep your eyes on Latin America, particularly if you are a big holder of U.S. bank shares. Make sure you’re diversified, is all I’ll say, or sell them outright. From a risk-reward standpoint, it just doesn’t make sense to this guy.
Sources:
Larry Rohter / New York Times Constantine Menges / Weekly Standard Anthony Faiola / Washington Post Michael Shifter / Washington Post Ginger Thompson / New York Times Simon Romero / New York Times Associated Press
Brian Trumbore
**Hott Spotts will return August 22nd.
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