04/03/2003
Operation Downfall
Update 4/9: Hott Spotts will return April 17. For now, I couldn''t be prouder to be an American...and we wish the Iraqi people the best as they shape a new nation. I also want to once again thank our allies, especially Britain and Australia.
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As I write this on Wednesday, the news from the front in Iraq is very promising. We now wait to see what happens in the assault on Baghdad.
Last February while I was in Australia, Tony Maniaty had an article in The Australian newspaper concerning the proposed invasion of Japan that was to end World War II, before President Truman opted to use the atomic bomb instead. Some of the thoughts from that era are interesting in light of today’s conflict.
What was codenamed “Operation Downfall” was to be launched on November 1, 1945. The United States was planning on using 5 million troops, almost half the entire American military. Additionally, there were to be some British and Australian forces. [There’s your first parallel.]
The first invasion was to take place on the southernmost home island of Kyushu. After consolidating forces there, the Allies would then move onto Honshu in the spring, with a push through Hiroshima before heading to Tokyo.
In March 1945, Tokyo had been firebombed, resulting in the loss of 90,000 lives in one night, yet the Japanese didn’t back down (much as the firebombing of Dresden didn’t result in Hitler’s surrender). When some in America criticized the Tokyo attack, General Curtis Lemay said, “We’re at war with Japan. Would you rather have Americans killed?”
The rhetoric of the time was similar to today, with Truman Administration representatives talking of dealing a final blow against “an evil regime,” while for his part Emperor Hirohito described the last phase as a “holy war.” And like Saddam Hussein’s utterances, Hirohito added, “The barbaric tribe of Americans are devils in human skin.”
By summer of 1945, Japan still had 3 million soldiers. Their plan, labeled “Ketsu-Go,” “Operation Decision,” incorporated an additional 25 million civilians, most armed with just bamboo spears and pitchforks, in the defense of the homeland. Kamikaze pilots would then hit U.S. warships and troop carriers.
One of the reasons Truman was so queasy about an invasion, though, was the action on the island of Okinawa that spring. 180,000 American troops landed on April 1. At first there was little resistance as the Japanese pulled back to their most heavily fortified sector. Okinawa’s 450,000 civilians were dragged with them human shields. Fighting raged until June 21 and in the end over 12,000 Americans lost their lives. The Japanese lost an unbelievable 100,000 – with another 90,000 civilians losing theirs (many of these took their own lives). Kamikazes sank 30 U.S. vessels.
With this awful background, it’s no wonder Truman had second thoughts. He sought opinion both inside and outside government on what the casualty figures may be for an invasion. [Yes, no different than the Defense Policy Board of today and its influence on President Bush and Secretary Rumsfeld.]
Army Chief-of-Staff George Marshall estimated that the invasion would cost 250,000 American lives and the other projections fell between 30,000 and one million. Truman had solicited the advice of former President Herbert Hoover, who wrote a series of papers in which he estimated a loss of life between 500,000 and one million. Everyone was in agreement that the territory would be taken street by street. Secretary of War Henry Stimson wrote Truman, “We shall in my opinion have to go through a more bitter finish fight than in Germany.”
In another parallel to today, Admiral William Leahy, having met with Truman, passed a memorandum around stamped URGENT to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS). Leahy said the President wanted to meet on June 18 to discuss “the losses in dead and wounded that will result from an invasion of Japan proper,” adding, “It is his intention to make his decision on the campaign with the purpose of economizing to the maximum extent possible in the loss of American lives.”
The meeting took place, with all the participants in agreement on the costs. Author Dennis Giangreco notes in the current issue of American Heritage that Secretary of War Stimson said he “agreed with the plan proposed by the JCS as being the best thing to do, but he still hoped for some fruitful accomplishment through other means.” Giangreco writes, “Those other means ranged from increased political pressure brought to bear through a display of Allied unanimity at the imminent Potsdam Conference to the as-yet-untested atomic weapons that might ‘shock’ the Japanese into surrender.”
The authors of a recent book titled “Codename Downfall: The Secret Plan to Invade Japan,” Thomas Allen and Norman Polmar, have their own estimate on the cost of an invasion based on new archives and facts not available in ‘45 147,500 American dead. They think that the initial assault on Kyushu would have been the single bloodiest battle in history.
[Japanese warfare is based on the traditional concept of “bushido,” which requires warriors to die in battle rather than face the shame of surrender.]
In the article for The Australian, Giangreco is quoted separately on the mindset of Iraqi soldiers and civilians.
“You could easily get the same situation we had in the invasion of Europe, where you had extremely bloody conflict (with the Germans) going on in one area and not far away, mass surrenders taking place. This is the most likely scenario in Iraq, whereas in Japan there was a determination in the armed forces to go all the way.”
Author Richard Frank, who has written of the Imperial Japanese Empire, opined that he doubted many Iraqis would lay down their lives for Saddam. “His regime hasn’t instilled the fanaticism in the population that, say, North Korea has.”
[Again, much of the above is from an article written about six weeks ago.]
Of course in the end, Truman dropped the first atomic bomb on Hiroshima, August 6, 1945, killing about 140,000 people. Tokyo still refused to give in, whereupon Truman warned:
“If they do not now accept our terms, they may expect a rain of ruin from the air, the like of which has never been seen on earth.”
A second bomb hit Nagasaki. Hirohito finally gave in, saying in a radio address that he bowed to U.S. supremacy, noting the “trends of the world were not advantageous to us.” As reporter Maniaty notes, “It was the first time most Japanese had ever heard his voice.” There was no need for Operation Downfall.
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Brian Trumbore
*Hott Spotts will return April 17.
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