|
01/15/2004
A New Japan
I’ve been meaning to get around to a review of an important
article in the November / December issue of Foreign Affairs,
“Japan’s New Nationalism” by former Senior Fellow of the
Council on Foreign Relations, Eugene Matthews. But before I
get into it, just thought that I should disclose I have about 4% of
my personal assets invested in the country.
---
Matthews says that a little publicized incident from back on
12/18/01 was quite telling. The Japanese Navy sank a North
Korean spy ship that day, killing the Korean crew, and it marked
the first time the Japanese had sunk a foreign vessel since World
War II. In essence, it spoke volumes about Japan’s new sense of
self.
Then when North Korea announced in October 2002 that it was
actively pursuing the development of nuclear weapons, Japan’s
defense minister, Shigeru Ishiba, warned Pyongyang that Japan
could launch a preemptive attack of its choosing in order to
defend itself. Since then Ishiba reiterated the position.
“Attacking North Korea after a missile attack on Japan is too
late.” And these days it’s not unusual to see articles proposing
that Japan develop its own nuclear weapons. Matthews writes:
“This development could have an alarming consequence:
namely, the rise of a militarized, assertive, and nuclear-armed
Japan, which would be a nightmare for the country’s neighbors.
Washington, therefore, must take heed of the developments in
Tokyo, and fast. With North Korea growing ever more bellicose,
Japan’s nuclear genie may have escaped its bottle for good.
Japan’s new nationalism is not an unalloyed evil, however; on
the contrary, it may well be the key to rallying the Japanese
public behind much-needed economic reforms.”
When we discuss the term “Japanese nationalism,” Matthews
traces its underpinnings “to the Tokugawa era, which began in
1603, but it was only during the Meiji period (1868-1912) that
Japanese nationalism took on its modern form as a philosophy
with fascist underpinnings, and as a movement that would cause
instability throughout the region and the world.”
After World War II, though, Japan had a “fear of itself,” fueled
by Hiroshima and Nagasaki, as well as the surrender aboard the
USS Missouri. There have been two concerns; first, that
growing Japan’s military would lead to great pain and, second,
the public might just embrace militarism once again.
To deal with this the American-drafted constitution for Japan
contains Article 9, committing the country to pacifism. But
lately the budget for the Self-Defense Force (SDF) has been
increased substantially as has spending on missile defense owing
to the North Korean threat. According to some polls, the
majority of the people are now in favor of turning the SDF into a
full-fledged army, requiring the amending of Article 9. One of
the leading proponents of this position is Tokyo’s Governor
Shintaro Ishihara, author of the controversial 1989 book “The
Japan That Can Say No” and a leading hawk. But if the country
really wanted a standing army to defend itself, and thus rely less
on the United States, it needs to not only spend far more money,
it has to train intensively to learn how to fight a different kind of
conflict.
On the nuclear weapons front, however, Japan is already well-
prepared should they choose this route. For instance, only 5
kilograms of plutonium is required to make one, yet today Japan
has 38,000 kilograms and this stockpile could reach 145,000 by
2020. In other words, the country could become the world’s
largest nuclear power in less than two decades.
One of the reasons for the new nationalism is the simple fact that
as the country ages, few remember the horrors of war and fewer
fear a return of militarism. But one of the things that has held
back a more aggressive stance is the fact the people have felt so
insecure because of the stagnant economy, and these days the
rise of China on the economic front only makes things worse. It
was Japan, after all, that helped build the Asian Miracle of the
80s and 90s, but now these same nations are banking on China.
And it is no different from any other country, including the
U.S., in that some of its leading manufacturers, such as NEC and
Honda, opted to invest heavily on the mainland.
Additionally, some are worried that Washington’s interests are
diverging from those of Tokyo’s. For example, 60% of the
people thought the U.S. war with Iraq was not justified, while at
the same time Japanese see the Bush administration cozying up
to China in many areas. Just this week U.S. General Richard
Myers is in Beijing for talks with his counterparts.
The Japanese also blame the U.S. for letting the North Korea
issue fester amidst the feeling that Washington should have been
negotiating directly with Pyongyang all along; Japan being as
much in the potential line of fire as South Korea.
But it’s important not to get the wrong impression with the
emerging nationalism. Many in this camp do favor Western-
style economic reform (which is what I’m personally betting on).
These folks understand the old system doesn’t work and they
oppose government-supported monopolies.
And even hard-liners like Shintaro Ishihara no longer favor
kicking the U.S. out like he did in 1989. Instead they support
reform of Article 9 to pump up military spending and to hold
North Korea responsible for its past misdeeds, including the
kidnapping of at least 10 Japanese citizens in the 70s and 80s.
Ishihara himself is viewed by many of his fellow countrymen as
a catalyst for the kind of change required to allow Japan to
reemerge as a world economic leader.
Meanwhile, Japan and the U.S. need to work together to avoid an
economic shock that would only spur on the more extreme
nationalists. Eugene Matthews:
“A terrorist attack on Japanese soil would cause a surge in
militarism and could also enhance anti-Americanism if seen as a
result of Tokyo’s support for Washington, especially its actions
in the Persian Gulf.”
Japan, of course, is set to inject ground troops into Iraq, thanks to
the political courage of Prime Minister Koizumi, but the move
could obviously backfire.
Finally, Matthews offers up this opinion on Japan and nuclear
weapons.
“A nuclear Japan would make Asia a more dangerous place,
starting an arms race unlike any the region has ever seen. China
would increase its nuclear stockpile and seek more military
resources, particularly nuclear submarines. Asia would suddenly
have five nuclear powers – China, India, Japan, Pakistan, and
North Korea – and South Korea would quickly follow, raising
the potential disastrous conflict.”
What it boils down to is North Korea. The United States,
working with the others in the region, must resolve this coming
crisis quickly. If it can’t, we shouldn’t be surprised at anything
Japan does acting in its own self-interest.
Hott Spotts will return January 29. Your editor is going to be in
New Hampshire next week, checking out the presidential
candidates while trying to stay warm.
Brian Trumbore
|
