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02/24/2005
Pentagon, Part II...Porter Goss, Part I
Before I get to a new topic, just a follow-up on last week’s piece
concerning the 2006 Defense Budget. During a budget briefing,
Sec. of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said “Our world and the
threats to it had changed markedly since the end of the Cold War
(but) the assumptions underlying U.S. force structure, planning
and our posture around the world had not changed to the same
extent. (All of the services must be restructured) to deploy more
combat power with increased speed, lethality, agility and
precision.” [William Matthews / Defense News]
For example, by 2007 the Army expects to increase its number of
brigades (3,000-5,000 soldier units) by 10 to 43; this being the
basic deployment element, including all equipment necessary to
be self-sustaining. Other projected changes include adding 1,400
to the special operations forces.
And on a different topic, following is a passage from the lead
editorial in the February 14 issue of Defense News.
On the issue of “supplemental funding requests, which have
become a standard feature of the annual budget process .
“Supplementals are supposed to cover unforeseeable expenses of
war or natural emergency – the extra fuel, tires, ammunition and
so forth that a military consumes when thrown into action. This
category includes the Afghanistan campaign, launched soon after
9/11, and even the first phase of the Iraq war.
“The costs of the occupation are no longer incalculable, yet DoD
leaders act as if the bills will come as a complete surprise
“This means the DoD isn’t even trying to include a reasonable
estimate of its wartime expenses in its budget.
“ ‘It wouldn’t be responsible for us to take a guess at what those
costs are,’ White House budget director Joshua Bolton told
reporters Feb. 7. But the Bush administration’s federal spending
request is full of such estimates – it’s what a budget is .
“ an honest debate, which is what democracy is all about,
begins with the honest presentation of plans for spending public
money.”
And last week I said I was going to take a look at the $78 billion
budget for procurement. Well, it’s not quite as interesting as I
thought it would be but of the 1,000+ items listed with spending
budgeted at $15 million or more for 2006, here are just a few, in
case you wondered what some items cost overall.
Night vision devices, Army $164.7 million budgeted
Night vision, thermal weapon sight, Army $83.7 mm
Machine gun ammo, Navy $23.7 mm
Night vision equipment, Navy $20.8 mm
Sub periscopes & imaging equipment, Navy $76.6 mm
Weather service, Air Force $28.7 mm
[Source: Defense News]
Of course if you are a defense stock analyst, you are poring
through the minutiae to see which companies, both large and
small, might benefit.
---
Following are comments from the testimony of Director of
Central Intelligence Porter Goss before the Senate Select
Committee on Intelligence, Feb. 16, 2005
Addressing the challenges Goss sees for America in the months
ahead, the director said “I will not attempt to cover everything
that could go wrong in the year ahead. We must, and do,
concentrate our efforts, experience and expertise on the
challenges that are most pressing: defeating terrorism; protecting
the homeland; stopping proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction and drugs; and fostering stability, freedom and peace
in the most troubled regions of the world.”
Terrorism
In the past year, aggressive measures by our intelligence, law
enforcement, defense and homeland security communities, along
with our key international partners have dealt serious blows to al-
Qaeda and others. Despite these successes, however, the terrorist
threat to the US in the Homeland and abroad endures.
--Al-Qaeda is intent on finding ways to circumvent US security
enhancements to strike Americans and the Homeland.
--It may be only a matter of time before al-Qaeda or another
group attempts to use chemical, biological, radiological, and
nuclear weapons (CBRN).
--Al-Qaeda is only one facet of the threat from a broader Sunni
jihadist movement.
--The Iraq conflict, while not a cause of extremism, has become a
cause for extremists.
We know from experience that al-Qaeda is a patient, persistent,
imaginative, adaptive and dangerous opponent. But it is
vulnerable and we and other allies have hit it hard.
--Jihadist religious leaders preach millennial aberrational visions
of a fight for Islam’s survival. Sometimes they argue that the
struggle justifies the indiscriminate killing of civilians, even with
chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear weapons.
Our pursuit of al-Qaeda and its most senior leaders, including
Bin Ladin and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri is intense.
However, their capture alone would not be enough to eliminate
the terrorist threat to the US Homeland or US interests overseas.
Often influenced by al-Qaeda’s ideology, members of a broader
movement have an ability to plan and conduct operations. We
saw this last March in the railway attacks in Madrid conducted
by local Sunni extremists. Other regional groups – connected to
al-Qaeda or acting on their own – also continue to pose a
significant threat.
--In Pakistan, terrorist elements remain committed to attacking
US targets. In Saudi Arabia, remnants of the Saudi al-Qaeda
network continue to attack US interests in the region.
--In Central Asia, the Islamic Jihad Group (IJG), a splinter group
of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, has become a more
virulent threat to US interests and local governments. Last
spring the group used female operatives in a series of bombings
in Uzbekistan.
--In Southeast Asia, the Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) continues to pose
a threat to US and Western interests in Indonesia and the
Philippines, where JI is colluding with the Abu Sayyaf Group
and possibly the MILF.
--In Europe, Islamic extremists continue to plan and cause
attacks against US and local interests, some that may cause
significant casualties. In 2004 British authorities dismantled an
al-Qaeda cell and an extremist brutally killed a prominent Dutch
citizen in the Netherlands.
Islamic extremists are exploiting the Iraqi conflict to recruit new
anti-US jihadists.
--These jihadists who survive will leave Iraq experienced in and
focused on acts of urban terrorism. They represent a potential
pool of contacts to build transnational terrorist cells, groups, and
networks in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and other countries.
--Zarqawi has sought to bring about the final victory of Islam
over the West, and he hopes to establish a safe haven in Iraq
from which his group could operate against “infidel” Western
nations and “apostate” Muslim governments.
Other terrorist groups spanning the globe also pose persistent and
serious threats to US and Western interests.
--Hizbollah’s main focus remains Israel, but it could conduct
lethal attacks against US interests quickly upon a decision to do
so.
--Palestinian terrorist organizations have apparently refrained
from directly targeting US or Western interests in their
opposition to Middle East peace initiatives, but pose an ongoing
risk to US citizens who could be killed or wounded in attacks
intended to strike Israeli interests.
--Extremist groups in Latin America are still a concern, with the
FARC – the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia –
possessing the greatest capability and the clearest intent to
threaten US interests in the region.
--Horn of Africa, the Sahel, the Maghreb, the Levant, and the
Gulf States are all areas where “pop up” terrorist activity can be
expected.
[Ed. I figure I’m not the only one who is unclear as to what some
of these geographic areas are. Sahel: Senegal, Mauritania, Mali,
Niger, Nigeria and Chad. Maghreb: Generally applies to
Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and sometimes Libya. Levant:
Countries bordering Eastern Mediterranean Sea from Egypt to
Turkey.]
Iraq
Low voter turnout in some Sunni areas and the post-election
resumption of insurgent attacks – most against Iraqi civilian and
security forces – indicate that the insurgency achieved at least
some of its election-day goals and remains a serious threat to
creating a stable representative government in Iraq.
Self-determination for the Iraqi people will largely depend on the
ability of Iraqi forces to provide security. Iraq’s most capable
security units have become more effective in recent months,
contributing to several major operations and helping to put an
Iraqi face on security operations. Insurgents are determined to
discourage new recruits and undermine the effectiveness of
existing Iraqi security forces.
--The lack of security is hurting Iraq’s reconstruction efforts and
economic development, causing overall economic growth to
proceed at a much slower pace than many analysts expected a
year ago.
--Alternatively, the larger uncommitted moderate Sunni
population and the Sunni political elite may seize the post
electoral moment to take part in creating Iraq’s new political
institutions if victorious Shia and Kurdish parties include Sunnis
in the new government and the drafting of the constitution.
North Korea
On 10 February 2005, Pyongyang announced it was suspending
participation in the six-party talks underway since 2003, declared
it had nuclear weapons, and affirmed it would seek to increase its
nuclear arsenal. The North had been pushing for a freeze on its
plutonium program in exchange for significant benefits, rather
than committing to the full dismantlement that we and our
partners sought.
--In 2003, the North claimed it had reprocessed the 8,000 fuel
rods from the Yongbyong reactor, originally stored under the
Agreed Framework, with IAEA monitoring in 1994. The North
claims to have made new weapons from its reprocessing effort.
--We believe North Korea continues to pursue a uranium
enrichment capability drawing on the assistance it received from
A.Q. Khan before his network was shutdown.
North Korea continues to develop, produce, deploy, and sell
ballistic missiles of increasing range and sophistication,
augmenting Pyongyang’s large operational force of Scud and No
Dong class missiles. North Korea could resume flight-testing at
any time, including of longer-range missiles, such as the Taepo
Dong-2 system. We assess the TD-2 is capable of reaching the
United States with a nuclear-weapon-sized payload.
--North Korea continues to market its ballistic missile
technology, trying to find new clients now that some traditional
customers, such as Libya, have halted such trade.
We believe North Korea has active CW and BW programs and
probably has chemical and possibly biological weapons ready for
use.
---
More from Porter Goss’s testimony next time, March 1.
Source: CIA.gov
Brian Trumbore
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