|
03/03/2005
Porter Goss, Part II
Continuing with Director of Central Intelligence Porter Goss’s
Feb. 16, 2005 testimony to the Senate Select Committee on
Intelligence, Goss delves into more of the world’s hot spots.
Iran
In early February, the spokesman of Iran’s Supreme Council for
National Security publicly announced that Iran would never
scrap its nuclear program. This came in the midst of negotiations
with EU-3 members (Britain, Germany and France) seeking
objective guarantees from Tehran that it will not use nuclear
technology for nuclear weapons.
--Previous comments by Iranian officials, including Iran’s
Supreme Leader and its Foreign Minister, indicated that Iran
would not give up its ability to enrich uranium. Certainly they
can use it to produce fuel for power reactors. We are more
concerned about the dual-use nature of the technology that could
also be used to achieve a nuclear weapon.
[Ed. note: On Feb. 27, Iran announced it would retain its ability
to enrich uranium.]
In parallel, Iran continues its pursuit of long-range ballistic
missiles, such as an improved version of its 1,300 km range
Shahab-3 MRBM, to add to the hundreds of short-range SCUD
missiles it already has.
Even since 9/11, Tehran continues to support terrorist groups in
the region, such as Hizballah (ed.note: everyone has a different
spelling for this group this is the CIA’s), and could encourage
increased attacks in Israel and the Palestinian Territories to derail
progress toward peace.
--Iran reportedly is supporting some anti-Coalition activities in
Iraq and seeking to influence the future character of the Iraqi
state.
--Conservatives are likely to consolidate their power in Iran’s
June 2005 presidential elections, further marginalizing the
reform movement last year.
--Iran continues to retain in secret important members of Al-
Qaeda-the Management Council – causing further uncertainty
about Iran’s commitment to bring them to justice.
China
Beijing’s military modernization and military buildup is tilting
the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait. Improved Chinese
capabilities threaten US forces in the region.
--In 2004, China increased its ballistic missile forces deployed
across from Taiwan and rolled out several new submarines.
--China continues to develop more robust, survivable nuclear-
armed missiles as well as conventional capabilities for use in a
regional conflict.
Taiwan continues to promote constitutional reform and other
attempts to strengthen local identity. Beijing judges these moves
to be a “timeline for independence.” If Beijing decides that
Taiwan is taking steps toward permanent separation that exceed
Beijing’s tolerance, we believe China is prepared to respond with
various levels of force.
China is increasingly confident and active on the international
stage, trying to ensure it has a voice on major international
issues, secure access to natural resources, and counter what it
sees as US efforts to contain or encircle China.
New leadership under President Hu Jintao is facing an array of
domestic challenges in 2005, such as the potential for a
resurgence in inflation, increased dependence on exports,
growing economic inequalities, increased awareness of
individual rights, and popular expectations for the new
leadership.
Russia
The attitudes and actions of the so-called “siloviki” – the ex-
KGB men that Putin has placed in positions of authority
throughout the Russian government – may be critical
determinants of the course Putin will pursue in the year ahead.
--Perceived setbacks in Ukraine are likely to lead Putin to
redouble his efforts to defend Russian interests abroad while
balancing cooperation with the West. Russia’s most immediate
security threat is terrorism, and counterterrorism cooperation
undoubtedly will continue.
--Putin publicly acknowledges a role for outside powers to play
in the CIS, for example, but we believe he is nevertheless
concerned about further encroachment by the US and NATO into
the region.
--Moscow worries that separatism inside Russia and radical
Islamic movements beyond their borders might threaten stability
in Southern Russia. Chechen extremists have increasingly turned
to terrorist operations in response to Moscow’s successes in
Chechnya, and it is reasonable to predict that they will carry out
attacks against civilian or military targets elsewhere in Russia in
2005.
Budget increases will help Russia create a professional military
by replacing conscripts with volunteer servicemen and focus on
maintaining, modernizing and extending the operational life of
its strategic weapons systems, including its nuclear missile force.
--Russia remains an important source of weapons technology,
materials and components for other nations. The vulnerability of
Russian WMD materials and technology to theft or diversion is a
continuing concern.
Potential Areas For Instability
Mr. Chairman, in the MIDDLE EAST, the election of Palestinian
President Mahmud Abbas, marks an important step and Abbas
has made it clear that negotiating a peace deal with Israel is a
high priority. There nevertheless are hurdles ahead.
--Redlines must be resolved while Palestinian leaders try to
rebuild damaged PA infrastructure and governing institutions,
especially the security forces, the legislature, and the judiciary.
--Terrorist groups, some of who benefit from funding from
outside sources, could step up attacks to derail peace and
progress.
In AFRICA, chronic instability will continue to hamper
counterterrorism efforts and pose heavy humanitarian and
peacekeeping burdens.
--In Nigeria, the military is struggling to contain militia groups in
the oil-producing south and ethnic violence that frequently erupts
throughout the country. Extremist groups are emerging from the
country’s Muslim population of about 65 million.
--In Sudan, the peace deal signed in January will result in de
facto southern autonomy and may inspire rebels in provinces
such as Darfur to press harder for a greater share of resources
and power. Opportunities exist for Islamic extremists to reassert
themselves in the North unless the central government stays
unified.
--Unresolved disputes in the Horn of Africa – Africa’s gateway
to the Middle East – create vulnerability to foreign terrorist and
extremist groups. Ethiopia and Eritrea still have a contested
border, and armed factions in Somalia indicate they will fight the
authority of a new transitional government.
In LATIN AMERICA, the region is entering a major electoral
cycle in 2006, when Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador,
Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru and Venezuela hold presidential
elections. Several key countries in the hemisphere are potential
flashpoints in 2005.
--In Venezuela, Chavez is consolidating his power by using
technically legal tactics to target his opponents and meddling in
the region, supported by Castro.
--In Colombia, progress against counternarcotics and terrorism
under President Uribe’s successful leadership, may be affected
by the election.
--The outlook is very cloudy for legitimate, timely elections in
November 2005 in Haiti – even with substantial international
support.
--Campaigning for the 2006 presidential election in Mexico is
likely to stall progress on fiscal, labor, and energy reforms.
--In Cuba, Castro’s hold on power remains firm, but a bad fall
last October has rekindled speculation about his declining health
and succession scenarios.
In SOUTHEAST ASIA, three countries bear close watching.
--In Indonesia, President Yudhoyono has moved swiftly to
crackdown on corruption. Reinvigorating the economy,
burdened by the costs of recovery in tsunami-damaged areas,
will likely be affected by continuing deep-seated ethnic and
political turmoil exploitable by terrorists.
--In the Philippines, Manila is struggling with prolonged Islamic
and Communist rebellions. The presence of Jemaah Islamiyah
(JI) terrorists seeking safe haven and training bases adds
volatility and capability to terrorist groups already in place.
--Thailand is plagued with an increasingly volatile Muslim
separatist threat in its southeastern provinces, and the risk of
escalation remains high.
Source: CIA.gov
Hott Spotts will return in two weeks, March 17.
[In the meantime, check out the archives.]
Brian Trumbore
|
