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11/11/2004

Warnings from the Arctic

A long-awaited report on global warming, the Arctic Climate
Impact Assessment (ACIA), has just been released by the Arctic
Council. It is the work of hundreds of researchers and the
findings are non-political, though the reaction to it may be
anything but.

The council is comprised of eight arctic nations (Canada,
Denmark / Greenland / Faroe Islands, Finland, Iceland, Norway,
Russia, Sweden, and the United States), six Indigenous Peoples
organizations and official observers including France, Germany
the Netherlands, Poland and the United Kingdom, as well as
various scientific groups.

While many of the conclusions should be familiar by now, others
may not be. What follows is culled from the voluminous report
itself. Some of you may want to print this out for your kids
because I can guarantee most science teachers at the middle and
high school level will bring it up at some point.

Introduction

--Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are associated with
rising global temperatures. The burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil,
and natural gas) and secondarily the clearing of land, has
increased the concentration of carbon dioxide, methane, and
other heat-trapping (“Greenhouse”) gases in the atmosphere.
Since the start of the industrial revolution, the atmospheric
carbon dioxide concentration has increased by about 35% and the
global average temperature has risen by about 0.6 degrees
centigrade.

--Continuing to add carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases
to the atmosphere is projected to lead to significant and persistent
changes in climate, including an increase in average global
temperature of 1.4 to 5.8 degrees C.

--About 80% of the world’s energy is currently derived from
burning fossil fuels, and carbon dioxide emissions from these
sources are growing rapidly. Because excess carbon dioxide
persists in the atmosphere for centuries, it will take at least a few
decades for concentrations to peak and then begin to decline
even if concerted efforts to reduce emissions are begun
immediately.

--The increasingly rapid rate of recent climate change poses new
challenges to the resilience of arctic life .other human
activities, such as overfishing, have a major impact.

--Almost four million people live in the Arctic, depending on
where the boundary is drawn. The economy of the region is
based largely on natural resources, from oil, gas and metal ores
to fish, reindeer, caribou, whales, seals, and birds. In recent
decades, tourism has added a growing sector to the economies of
many communities and regions of the Arctic.

--An acceleration of existing climatic trends is projected to bring
wide-ranging changes and impacts to the Arctic. These will, in
turn, impact the planet as a whole.

--Not all the changes are necessarily negative.

Key Findings

1. Arctic climate is now warming rapidly and much larger
changes are projected.

--Annual average arctic temperature has increased at almost
twice the rate as that of the rest of the world over the past few
decades.

--Increasing global concentrations of greenhouse gases are
projected to contribute to additional arctic warming of about 4-7
degree C over the next 100 years.

2. Arctic warming and its consequences have worldwide
implications.

--Melting of highly reflective arctic snow and ice reveals darker
land and ocean surfaces, increasing absorption of the sun’s heat
and further warming the planet.

--Increases in glacial melt and river runoff add more freshwater
to the ocean, raising global sea level and possibly slowing the
ocean circulation that brings heat from the tropics to the poles,
affecting global and regional climate.

3. Arctic vegetation zones are very likely to shift, causing wide-
ranging impacts.

--Treeline is expected to move northward and to higher
elevations, with forests replacing a significant fraction of existing
tundra, and tundra vegetations moving into polar deserts.

--More-productive vegetation is likely to increase carbon uptake,
although reduced reflectivity of the land surface is likely to
outweigh this, causing further warming.

--Disturbances such as insect outbreaks and forest fires are very
likely to increase in frequency, severity, and duration, facilitating
invasions by non-native species.

4. Animal species’ diversity, ranges, and distribution will
change.

--Reductions in sea ice will drastically shrink marine habitat for
polar bears, ice-inhabiting seals, and some seabirds, pushing
some species toward extinction.

--Caribou / reindeer and other land animals are likely to be
increasingly stressed as climate change alters their access to food
sources, breeding grounds, and historic migrations routes.

--Species ranges are projected to shift northward on both land
and sea, bringing new species into the Arctic while severely
limiting some species currently present.

--As new species move in, animal diseases that can be
transmitted to humans, such as West Nile virus, are likely to pose
increasing health risks.

--Some arctic marine fisheries, which are of global importance as
well as providing major contributions to the region’s economy,
are likely to become more productive. Northern freshwater
fisheries that are mainstays of local diets are likely to suffer.

5. Many coastal communities and facilities face increasing
exposure to storms.

--Severe coastal erosion will be a growing problem as rising sea
level and a reduction in sea ice allow higher waves and storm
surges to reach the shore.

6. Reduced sea ice is very likely to increase marine transport and
access to resources.

--The continuing reduction of sea ice is very likely to lengthen
the navigation season and increase marine access to the Arctic’s
natural resources.

--Reduced sea ice is likely to allow increased offshore extraction
of oil and gas, although increasing ice movement could hinder
some operations.

7. Thawing ground will disrupt transportation, buildings, and
other infrastructure.

--Transportation and industry on land, including oil and gas
extraction and forestry, will increasingly be disrupted by the
shortening of the periods during which ice roads and tundra are
frozen sufficiently to permit travel.

--As frozen ground thaws, many existing buildings, roads,
pipelines, airports, and industrial facilities are likely to be
destabilized, requiring substantial rebuilding, maintenance, and
investment.

8. Indigenous communities are facing major economic and
cultural impacts.

--Many Indigenous Peoples depend on hunting polar bear,
walrus, seals, and caribou, herding reindeer, fishing, and
gathering, not only for food and to support the local economy,
but also as the basis for cultural and social identity.

9. Elevated ultraviolet radiation levels will affect people, plants,
and animals.

--The stratospheric ozone layer over the Arctic is not expected to
improve significantly for at least a few decades, largely due to
the effect of greenhouse gases on stratospheric temperatures.
Ultraviolet radiation in the Arctic is thus projected to remain
elevated in the coming decades.

--As a result, the current generation of arctic young people is
likely to receive a lifetime dose of UV that is about 30% higher
than any prior generation. [Subjecting them to increased cases of
skin cancer, for starters.]

10. Multiple influences interact to cause impacts to people and
ecosystems.

--Changes in climate are occurring in the context of many other
stresses including chemical pollution, overfishing, land use
changes, habitat fragmentation, human population increases, and
cultural and economic changes.

---

In an editorial on Tuesday, November 9, the Washington Post
offered up the following conclusion:

“Some participants (in the findings) have accused the Bush
administration of resisting a mild endorsement of the (above) and
of rejecting even vague language suggesting that greenhouse gas
reduction might be part of the solution. Given the thorough
nature of this report, and given that the election is now over, that
would be inexcusable. At the very least, we hope that the final
language reflects a practical, commonsensical and depoliticized
approach to what will certainly be one of the most pressing
environmental issues of the next half-century.”

Hott Spotts returns November 18.

Brian Trumbore


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-11/11/2004-      
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Hot Spots

11/11/2004

Warnings from the Arctic

A long-awaited report on global warming, the Arctic Climate
Impact Assessment (ACIA), has just been released by the Arctic
Council. It is the work of hundreds of researchers and the
findings are non-political, though the reaction to it may be
anything but.

The council is comprised of eight arctic nations (Canada,
Denmark / Greenland / Faroe Islands, Finland, Iceland, Norway,
Russia, Sweden, and the United States), six Indigenous Peoples
organizations and official observers including France, Germany
the Netherlands, Poland and the United Kingdom, as well as
various scientific groups.

While many of the conclusions should be familiar by now, others
may not be. What follows is culled from the voluminous report
itself. Some of you may want to print this out for your kids
because I can guarantee most science teachers at the middle and
high school level will bring it up at some point.

Introduction

--Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are associated with
rising global temperatures. The burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil,
and natural gas) and secondarily the clearing of land, has
increased the concentration of carbon dioxide, methane, and
other heat-trapping (“Greenhouse”) gases in the atmosphere.
Since the start of the industrial revolution, the atmospheric
carbon dioxide concentration has increased by about 35% and the
global average temperature has risen by about 0.6 degrees
centigrade.

--Continuing to add carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases
to the atmosphere is projected to lead to significant and persistent
changes in climate, including an increase in average global
temperature of 1.4 to 5.8 degrees C.

--About 80% of the world’s energy is currently derived from
burning fossil fuels, and carbon dioxide emissions from these
sources are growing rapidly. Because excess carbon dioxide
persists in the atmosphere for centuries, it will take at least a few
decades for concentrations to peak and then begin to decline
even if concerted efforts to reduce emissions are begun
immediately.

--The increasingly rapid rate of recent climate change poses new
challenges to the resilience of arctic life .other human
activities, such as overfishing, have a major impact.

--Almost four million people live in the Arctic, depending on
where the boundary is drawn. The economy of the region is
based largely on natural resources, from oil, gas and metal ores
to fish, reindeer, caribou, whales, seals, and birds. In recent
decades, tourism has added a growing sector to the economies of
many communities and regions of the Arctic.

--An acceleration of existing climatic trends is projected to bring
wide-ranging changes and impacts to the Arctic. These will, in
turn, impact the planet as a whole.

--Not all the changes are necessarily negative.

Key Findings

1. Arctic climate is now warming rapidly and much larger
changes are projected.

--Annual average arctic temperature has increased at almost
twice the rate as that of the rest of the world over the past few
decades.

--Increasing global concentrations of greenhouse gases are
projected to contribute to additional arctic warming of about 4-7
degree C over the next 100 years.

2. Arctic warming and its consequences have worldwide
implications.

--Melting of highly reflective arctic snow and ice reveals darker
land and ocean surfaces, increasing absorption of the sun’s heat
and further warming the planet.

--Increases in glacial melt and river runoff add more freshwater
to the ocean, raising global sea level and possibly slowing the
ocean circulation that brings heat from the tropics to the poles,
affecting global and regional climate.

3. Arctic vegetation zones are very likely to shift, causing wide-
ranging impacts.

--Treeline is expected to move northward and to higher
elevations, with forests replacing a significant fraction of existing
tundra, and tundra vegetations moving into polar deserts.

--More-productive vegetation is likely to increase carbon uptake,
although reduced reflectivity of the land surface is likely to
outweigh this, causing further warming.

--Disturbances such as insect outbreaks and forest fires are very
likely to increase in frequency, severity, and duration, facilitating
invasions by non-native species.

4. Animal species’ diversity, ranges, and distribution will
change.

--Reductions in sea ice will drastically shrink marine habitat for
polar bears, ice-inhabiting seals, and some seabirds, pushing
some species toward extinction.

--Caribou / reindeer and other land animals are likely to be
increasingly stressed as climate change alters their access to food
sources, breeding grounds, and historic migrations routes.

--Species ranges are projected to shift northward on both land
and sea, bringing new species into the Arctic while severely
limiting some species currently present.

--As new species move in, animal diseases that can be
transmitted to humans, such as West Nile virus, are likely to pose
increasing health risks.

--Some arctic marine fisheries, which are of global importance as
well as providing major contributions to the region’s economy,
are likely to become more productive. Northern freshwater
fisheries that are mainstays of local diets are likely to suffer.

5. Many coastal communities and facilities face increasing
exposure to storms.

--Severe coastal erosion will be a growing problem as rising sea
level and a reduction in sea ice allow higher waves and storm
surges to reach the shore.

6. Reduced sea ice is very likely to increase marine transport and
access to resources.

--The continuing reduction of sea ice is very likely to lengthen
the navigation season and increase marine access to the Arctic’s
natural resources.

--Reduced sea ice is likely to allow increased offshore extraction
of oil and gas, although increasing ice movement could hinder
some operations.

7. Thawing ground will disrupt transportation, buildings, and
other infrastructure.

--Transportation and industry on land, including oil and gas
extraction and forestry, will increasingly be disrupted by the
shortening of the periods during which ice roads and tundra are
frozen sufficiently to permit travel.

--As frozen ground thaws, many existing buildings, roads,
pipelines, airports, and industrial facilities are likely to be
destabilized, requiring substantial rebuilding, maintenance, and
investment.

8. Indigenous communities are facing major economic and
cultural impacts.

--Many Indigenous Peoples depend on hunting polar bear,
walrus, seals, and caribou, herding reindeer, fishing, and
gathering, not only for food and to support the local economy,
but also as the basis for cultural and social identity.

9. Elevated ultraviolet radiation levels will affect people, plants,
and animals.

--The stratospheric ozone layer over the Arctic is not expected to
improve significantly for at least a few decades, largely due to
the effect of greenhouse gases on stratospheric temperatures.
Ultraviolet radiation in the Arctic is thus projected to remain
elevated in the coming decades.

--As a result, the current generation of arctic young people is
likely to receive a lifetime dose of UV that is about 30% higher
than any prior generation. [Subjecting them to increased cases of
skin cancer, for starters.]

10. Multiple influences interact to cause impacts to people and
ecosystems.

--Changes in climate are occurring in the context of many other
stresses including chemical pollution, overfishing, land use
changes, habitat fragmentation, human population increases, and
cultural and economic changes.

---

In an editorial on Tuesday, November 9, the Washington Post
offered up the following conclusion:

“Some participants (in the findings) have accused the Bush
administration of resisting a mild endorsement of the (above) and
of rejecting even vague language suggesting that greenhouse gas
reduction might be part of the solution. Given the thorough
nature of this report, and given that the election is now over, that
would be inexcusable. At the very least, we hope that the final
language reflects a practical, commonsensical and depoliticized
approach to what will certainly be one of the most pressing
environmental issues of the next half-century.”

Hott Spotts returns November 18.

Brian Trumbore