11/11/2004
Warnings from the Arctic
A long-awaited report on global warming, the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), has just been released by the Arctic Council. It is the work of hundreds of researchers and the findings are non-political, though the reaction to it may be anything but.
The council is comprised of eight arctic nations (Canada, Denmark / Greenland / Faroe Islands, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United States), six Indigenous Peoples organizations and official observers including France, Germany the Netherlands, Poland and the United Kingdom, as well as various scientific groups.
While many of the conclusions should be familiar by now, others may not be. What follows is culled from the voluminous report itself. Some of you may want to print this out for your kids because I can guarantee most science teachers at the middle and high school level will bring it up at some point.
Introduction
--Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are associated with rising global temperatures. The burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) and secondarily the clearing of land, has increased the concentration of carbon dioxide, methane, and other heat-trapping (“Greenhouse”) gases in the atmosphere. Since the start of the industrial revolution, the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration has increased by about 35% and the global average temperature has risen by about 0.6 degrees centigrade.
--Continuing to add carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere is projected to lead to significant and persistent changes in climate, including an increase in average global temperature of 1.4 to 5.8 degrees C.
--About 80% of the world’s energy is currently derived from burning fossil fuels, and carbon dioxide emissions from these sources are growing rapidly. Because excess carbon dioxide persists in the atmosphere for centuries, it will take at least a few decades for concentrations to peak and then begin to decline even if concerted efforts to reduce emissions are begun immediately.
--The increasingly rapid rate of recent climate change poses new challenges to the resilience of arctic life .other human activities, such as overfishing, have a major impact.
--Almost four million people live in the Arctic, depending on where the boundary is drawn. The economy of the region is based largely on natural resources, from oil, gas and metal ores to fish, reindeer, caribou, whales, seals, and birds. In recent decades, tourism has added a growing sector to the economies of many communities and regions of the Arctic.
--An acceleration of existing climatic trends is projected to bring wide-ranging changes and impacts to the Arctic. These will, in turn, impact the planet as a whole.
--Not all the changes are necessarily negative.
Key Findings
1. Arctic climate is now warming rapidly and much larger changes are projected.
--Annual average arctic temperature has increased at almost twice the rate as that of the rest of the world over the past few decades.
--Increasing global concentrations of greenhouse gases are projected to contribute to additional arctic warming of about 4-7 degree C over the next 100 years.
2. Arctic warming and its consequences have worldwide implications.
--Melting of highly reflective arctic snow and ice reveals darker land and ocean surfaces, increasing absorption of the sun’s heat and further warming the planet.
--Increases in glacial melt and river runoff add more freshwater to the ocean, raising global sea level and possibly slowing the ocean circulation that brings heat from the tropics to the poles, affecting global and regional climate.
3. Arctic vegetation zones are very likely to shift, causing wide- ranging impacts.
--Treeline is expected to move northward and to higher elevations, with forests replacing a significant fraction of existing tundra, and tundra vegetations moving into polar deserts.
--More-productive vegetation is likely to increase carbon uptake, although reduced reflectivity of the land surface is likely to outweigh this, causing further warming.
--Disturbances such as insect outbreaks and forest fires are very likely to increase in frequency, severity, and duration, facilitating invasions by non-native species.
4. Animal species’ diversity, ranges, and distribution will change.
--Reductions in sea ice will drastically shrink marine habitat for polar bears, ice-inhabiting seals, and some seabirds, pushing some species toward extinction.
--Caribou / reindeer and other land animals are likely to be increasingly stressed as climate change alters their access to food sources, breeding grounds, and historic migrations routes.
--Species ranges are projected to shift northward on both land and sea, bringing new species into the Arctic while severely limiting some species currently present.
--As new species move in, animal diseases that can be transmitted to humans, such as West Nile virus, are likely to pose increasing health risks.
--Some arctic marine fisheries, which are of global importance as well as providing major contributions to the region’s economy, are likely to become more productive. Northern freshwater fisheries that are mainstays of local diets are likely to suffer.
5. Many coastal communities and facilities face increasing exposure to storms.
--Severe coastal erosion will be a growing problem as rising sea level and a reduction in sea ice allow higher waves and storm surges to reach the shore.
6. Reduced sea ice is very likely to increase marine transport and access to resources.
--The continuing reduction of sea ice is very likely to lengthen the navigation season and increase marine access to the Arctic’s natural resources.
--Reduced sea ice is likely to allow increased offshore extraction of oil and gas, although increasing ice movement could hinder some operations.
7. Thawing ground will disrupt transportation, buildings, and other infrastructure.
--Transportation and industry on land, including oil and gas extraction and forestry, will increasingly be disrupted by the shortening of the periods during which ice roads and tundra are frozen sufficiently to permit travel.
--As frozen ground thaws, many existing buildings, roads, pipelines, airports, and industrial facilities are likely to be destabilized, requiring substantial rebuilding, maintenance, and investment.
8. Indigenous communities are facing major economic and cultural impacts.
--Many Indigenous Peoples depend on hunting polar bear, walrus, seals, and caribou, herding reindeer, fishing, and gathering, not only for food and to support the local economy, but also as the basis for cultural and social identity.
9. Elevated ultraviolet radiation levels will affect people, plants, and animals.
--The stratospheric ozone layer over the Arctic is not expected to improve significantly for at least a few decades, largely due to the effect of greenhouse gases on stratospheric temperatures. Ultraviolet radiation in the Arctic is thus projected to remain elevated in the coming decades.
--As a result, the current generation of arctic young people is likely to receive a lifetime dose of UV that is about 30% higher than any prior generation. [Subjecting them to increased cases of skin cancer, for starters.]
10. Multiple influences interact to cause impacts to people and ecosystems.
--Changes in climate are occurring in the context of many other stresses including chemical pollution, overfishing, land use changes, habitat fragmentation, human population increases, and cultural and economic changes.
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In an editorial on Tuesday, November 9, the Washington Post offered up the following conclusion:
“Some participants (in the findings) have accused the Bush administration of resisting a mild endorsement of the (above) and of rejecting even vague language suggesting that greenhouse gas reduction might be part of the solution. Given the thorough nature of this report, and given that the election is now over, that would be inexcusable. At the very least, we hope that the final language reflects a practical, commonsensical and depoliticized approach to what will certainly be one of the most pressing environmental issues of the next half-century.”
Hott Spotts returns November 18.
Brian Trumbore
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