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11/25/2004

New Threats

[Hott Spotts returns December 9]

The Pentagon is revising its military doctrine to reflect the
realities of today. For decades it was all about combating
conventional threats. That’s obviously no longer the case.

Following is the matrix being worked on, as reported by Jason
Sherman of Defense News.

----

Irregular

Those seeking to erode U.S. influence and power by employing
unconventional methods, such as:

Terrorism
Insurgency
Civil war
Emerging concepts such as “unrestricted warfare”

Likelihood: very high

Vulnerability: moderate, if not effectively checked

---

Traditional

Those seeking to challenge U.S. power by military operations,
such as:

Conventional air, sea and land attacks
Nuclear forces of established nuclear powers

Likelihood: decreasing (absent pre-emption) due to historic
capability-overmatch and expanding qualitative lead

Vulnerability: low, if transformation is balanced

---

Disruptive

Those seeking to usurp U.S. power and influence by acquiring
breakthrough capabilities, such as:

Sensors
Biotechnology
Miniaturization on the molecular level
Cyber-operations
Space
Directed-energy and other emerging fields

Likelihood: low, but time works against U.S.

Vulnerability: unknown; strategic surprise puts U.S. security at
risk

---

Catastrophic

Those seeking to paralyze U.S. leadership and power by
employing weapons of mass destruction or WMD-like effects in
surprise attacks on symbolic, critical or other high-value targets,
such as:

September 11, 2001
Terrorist use of WMD
Rogue missile attack

Likelihood: moderate and increasing

Vulnerability: unacceptable; single event could alter American
way of life

---

Hott Spotts will return December 9.

Brian Trumbore


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-11/25/2004-      
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Hot Spots

11/25/2004

New Threats

[Hott Spotts returns December 9]

The Pentagon is revising its military doctrine to reflect the
realities of today. For decades it was all about combating
conventional threats. That’s obviously no longer the case.

Following is the matrix being worked on, as reported by Jason
Sherman of Defense News.

----

Irregular

Those seeking to erode U.S. influence and power by employing
unconventional methods, such as:

Terrorism
Insurgency
Civil war
Emerging concepts such as “unrestricted warfare”

Likelihood: very high

Vulnerability: moderate, if not effectively checked

---

Traditional

Those seeking to challenge U.S. power by military operations,
such as:

Conventional air, sea and land attacks
Nuclear forces of established nuclear powers

Likelihood: decreasing (absent pre-emption) due to historic
capability-overmatch and expanding qualitative lead

Vulnerability: low, if transformation is balanced

---

Disruptive

Those seeking to usurp U.S. power and influence by acquiring
breakthrough capabilities, such as:

Sensors
Biotechnology
Miniaturization on the molecular level
Cyber-operations
Space
Directed-energy and other emerging fields

Likelihood: low, but time works against U.S.

Vulnerability: unknown; strategic surprise puts U.S. security at
risk

---

Catastrophic

Those seeking to paralyze U.S. leadership and power by
employing weapons of mass destruction or WMD-like effects in
surprise attacks on symbolic, critical or other high-value targets,
such as:

September 11, 2001
Terrorist use of WMD
Rogue missile attack

Likelihood: moderate and increasing

Vulnerability: unacceptable; single event could alter American
way of life

---

Hott Spotts will return December 9.

Brian Trumbore