Hot Spots

09/22/2005

Defense Bits

2004 Defense Spending (in billions of U.S. dollars)

1. United States $455.0
2. China 62.5 (est.)
3. Russia 61.9 (est.)
4. France 51.7
5. U.K. 49.6
6. Japan 45.1
7. Germany 37.8
8. Italy 30.5
9. Saudi Arabia 20.9
10. India 19.6
11. South Korea 16.4
12. Australia 14.3
13. Spain 12.5
14. Canada 11.4
15. Turkey 10.1
16. Israel 9.7
17. Netherlands 9.6
18. Brazil 9.2
19. Taiwan 7.5
20. Indonesia 7.5 (est.)

While the United States spent 3.9% of DP on defense in ‘04,
NATO Europe was at only 1.9%.

[Source: International Institute for Strategic Studies / Defense
News]

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Despite an apparent outline for a deal on the dismantling of
North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, don’t count on it
coming to fruition given Pyongyang’s past duplicity. This game
has a long ways to go. In the meantime, I came across a unique
timeline for a “cascade of proliferation,” as spelled out by
Harvard professor and weapons expert Graham Allison.

The premise being, what might happen following nuclear tests by
North Korea and Iran? “A bad- (but not worst-) case scenario.”

2006

North Korea conducts nuclear weapon test, claims arsenal of 8-
10 warheads.

2007

Japan withdraws from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
(NPT), despite heavy U.S. and Chinese pressure; announces
robust nuclear deterrent within six months.

China accelerates nuclear deployments; Chinese-Japanese arms
race begins.

Iran surprises world by conducting nuclear test; Middle East
echoes with popular calls to counter the “Shia threat” and restore
Sunni dignity by acquiring nuclear deterrent.

Iranian president Ahmadinejad reiterates former president
Rafsanjani’s threat that even a single nuclear weapon has the
power to destroy Israel; Israel immediately acknowledges
having at least 200 nuclear weapons, and declares that any
nuclear attack on it – including a terrorist attack – will result in
the annihilation of Iran.

Oil prices spike sharply; “war risk” premium sustained
indefinitely.

2008

South Korea withdraws from the NPT and conducts nuclear test.

North Korea expands production of nuclear weapons from 3 to
12 a year.

Egypt launches crash nuclear program, over stern Israeli and
U.S. warnings; Syria initiates search for nuclear capabilities.

2009

North Korea successfully tests Taepo Dong-3, a missile that can
reliably carry nuclear warheads to the U.S. mainland; South
Korea, fearing loss of U.S. deterrent, steps up nuclear-weapons
production.

Growing arsenals of neighbors North Korea, Japan, and South
Korea force adoption of “hair-trigger” launch protocols all
around.

North Korean arsenal reaches sufficient size to allow covert sale
of nukes to other countries; Venezuela and Nigeria are the first
customers.

Israel launches conventional pre-emptive strike against all known
Egyptian nuclear facilities; war narrowly averted; wave of terror
against Israel and United States begins.

2010

Covert Taiwanese progress toward nuclear-weapons capability
leaked; China blockades Taiwan, demanding verifiable
elimination of its nuclear program.

Saudi Arabia announces purchase of multiple nuclear weapons
from an undisclosed seller (Pakistan is strongly suspected);
threatens immediate use in face of any attack on it, conventional
or otherwise.

United States, China, India, and others compete to expand
strategic oil reserves and lock up long-term contracts, pushing oil
prices to new highs.

2011

Representatives of al-Qaeda and the North Korean government
meet to discuss the purchase of multiple nuclear weapons.

[Source: The Atlantic Monthly / October 2005]

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Hott Spotts returns Oct. 6.

Brian Trumbore