01/05/2006
Lebanon: The Evolving Crisis
Last April I traveled to Beirut, Lebanon, just days after the Syrian Army pulled out and about ten weeks after the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. My hotel room overlooked the bomb site which at the time was still largely untouched. [Much to my chagrin, as I ventured to it each day.] I also hired a driver to take me into Hizbullah territory (Baalbek) and that was one of the more memorable days of my world travels.
So I feel uniquely qualified to address Lebanon as a hot spot today and I am mildly amused at the commentary I read, most of which hasn’t a clue as to what’s really going on there and just how critical it is to the entire region.
Following are excerpts from a recent International Crisis Group report titled “Lebanon: Managing the Gathering Storm.”
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“The February 14, 2005, assassination of former Prime Minister Hariri – preceded by the decision to extend President Emile Lahoud’s term – set off a chain reaction of local and regional events that began with the rapid withdrawal of Syrian troops, proceeded with elections and the formation of a new government, carried on with a UN report on the killing, and continues to this day. The abruptness of Syria’s exit unquestionably was a success for the demonstrators who poured into the streets of Beirut on March 14 and for members of the international community – the U.S. and France at their head – who had pushed for it. Paradoxically, however, it also left the country with scant time to prepare an order. Or, as an influential member of Parliament put it: ‘We have moved into a new house. But no one yet knows who will take which room. Everyone wants to get the best one, and it’s led to sectarian squabbling. We have to find a way to divide the house in which there is space for all .
“It was the job of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, who took office on July 19, 2005, to manage the situation and try to cast off unwelcome burdens of the past. So far, a majority of Lebanese believe, he has performed adroitly; Western and UN officials generally agree. Hizbullah, the powerful Shiite movement that heretofore had rejected ministerial portfolios, is in the government, and the cabinet has agreed that the issue of its eventual disarmament would be resolved solely by consensus .
“The premier is also carving out a new foreign policy based chiefly on close relations with the West, especially the U.S., and with Egypt and Saudi Arabia. [Ed. note. Hariri was very close to the Saudi royal family.]
“But Siniora’s room for maneuver is heavily constrained. Unsure whose orders to obey, deprived of their senior commanders, and waiting to see who will prevail, officials in the security apparatus often choose the safest path, which is to do nothing .
“Many ministers are completely under the control of Syrian and Lebanese security officials. As long as (President) Lahoud [ed. a crony of Damascus] is in place, the remnants of the security system will survive.
“In an atmosphere of relative insecurity and fear, ordinary citizens increasingly look to their sectarian communities for succor and protection; meanwhile, many leaders have either withdrawn to mountain-top bases or taken temporary refuge abroad. Rumors concerning ongoing rearmament of various factions abound. An adviser to MP Michel Aoun expressed alarm: ‘People are saying that, if Hizbullah has arms, why shouldn’t we? When one side has weapons, others have an excuse for acquiring them. Ultimately, we will have three states in one.’ An Amal militiaman alleged that training had resumed in preparation for a potential showdown, and his movement was coordinating with smaller pro-Syrian movements. [Ed. note. Israel hit an Amal training camp, just five miles south of Beirut’s city center, about ten days ago.] In a sign of growing sectarian divide, Crisis Group witnessed over a dozen armored personnel carriers rush to disperse fans outside a south Beirut stadium following a scuffle in late October 2005 between supporters of Najma, Amal leader Nabih Berri’s soccer team, and Faisali, a Jordanian team, which some Beirut Sunnis had turned out to support.
“Prosperous Lebanese confess they now think twice before frequenting public places. Internal and external investment is dwindling. Religious charities claim they recorded their worst Ramadan since the Civil War . In the words of a Beirut-based manager of the Hariri-owned Oger Liban, ‘Everything is now frozen. I’m not even purchasing a car because I don’t know whether we are staying here and whether we will witness war or peace.’
“While the (spring) elections briefly blurred sectarian divisions, leading to odd alliances, the (Detlev) Mehlis investigation quickly reopened old divisions and heightened tensions. Within hours of the formation of the new cabinet on July 19, 2005, Mehlis named as a suspect Mustafa Hamdan, the Presidential Guard commander and widely viewed as Lahoud’s aide-de- camp .
“Since the publication of the report, Lebanese cohesion has shown further signs of unraveling. Five Shiite politicians, including Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh walked out of a Cabinet meeting in early November in a dispute arising from discussion of Assad’s speech, which attacked Siniora; the government has struggled to mollify mainly Shiite protestors against high fuel prices in the border areas of the Bekaa Valley near Syria, after demonstrations encouraged by the Syrian media; and, underscoring its continued military role, Hizbullah marked Independence Day by launching its first attacks across the UN- demarcated Blue Line with Israel in five months, producing some of the most violent clashes since Israel’s withdrawal in 2000.
“In short, Siniora and the country as a whole must now contend with deeply rooted sectarian loyalties and antagonisms in a context of enhanced regional and international stakes. In the absence of direct Syrian control but with active indirect interference, and with the political situation in flux, fractious confessional leaders have struggled to fill the vacuum, eager to protect and promote their status, leading to more divisiveness, in the eyes of many, than at any point since the civil war. As always in such circumstances, foreign actors both rush in and are pulled in, while Lebanon inches toward its traditional role as the locale for proxy wars. The level of intermingling between the domestic and the international is conveyed by a statistic: according to an opinion poll, more than 80 percent of Sunnis and Christians trust Mehlis’ investigation, but two-thirds of Shiites did not. From a spate of car bombs to prolonged gun battles around Palestinian camps, from sectarian suspicion to international stakes, Lebanon abounds with dynamite fuses, all threatening to ignite a conflagration .
“With sectarian hostility spreading alarmingly throughout the region, the possibility of jihadi Islamists turning to Lebanon also worries some. Though they may well be exaggerated, reports of increased activism by Sunni Islamists stoke such fears. (Some claim) that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is attracting more than a few Lebanese followers. Certainly, events in Iraq since Saddam’s fall appear to have infected Sunni / Shiite relations in Lebanon, with members of Muslim confessions tending to fall in line behind their respective communities. A Western diplomat cautioned: ‘We can’t exclude the possibility that Zarqawi might do something in Lebanon. We have to closely monitor the influx of Salafi militants as well as the impact of Iraq. The fight could spread here.’
“Sectarian tensions are greater than at any time since 1990. Lebanon has always been a place where Shiites and Sunni coexist. But outside involvement – of Iran with Shiites and of Arab states with Sunnis – is making matters worse.
“An-Nahar’s news editor said: ‘We are becoming a proxy for a battle between different states and international agendas. And frankly, no one knows where this is heading.’”
This report was printed in the Daily Star newspaper of Lebanon on Dec. 5, 2005. On Dec. 12, the An-Nahar editor cited above, Gibran Tueni, was assassinated for his anti-Syrian reporting. That just about sums up what is happening in this beautiful, yet deeply troubled, country.
Hott Spotts will return Jan. 12.
Brian Trumbore
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