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03/29/2007

Syria and Iran

A few weeks ago I read the below piece on Syria and Iran by
Katherine Gockel in the Feb. 26 issue of Defense News and
because it was such a concise analysis, I sought permission from
the publication to reprint it for your benefit.

So I thank Michelle Butler at Army Times Publishing Company
for her assistance in allowing me to do so.

---

Katherine Gockel, program officer at The Stanley Foundation,
Muscatine, Iowa.

“Syria and Iran: A Look at the Facts”

Over the past six to seven months, it seems that two nations have
been “married” together in almost every major policy discussion
on the Middle East. Whether it is the response to the election of
Hamas in Palestine, the Israeli-Hizbullah conflict in Lebanon, the
Iraq Study Group Report or President Bush’s recent speeches,
Syria and Iran are linked – often in the same sentence.

Yet when looking at some basic facts found in documents on the
U.S. State Department Web site, one has to ask if the continued
association of these two countries is actually driving together two
nations that may have less in common than most of us realize.

--Political structure. Iran is an Islamic republic. A theocracy. It
has a president and his power is often discussed, but most experts
agree that the real power still lies with Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei. The political power structure in Iran is considered
murky.

Syria, on the other hand, is officially a republic but is actually a
secular autocracy. Its current leader, Bashar al-Assad, took over
from his father, Hafez al-Assad, continuing the Ba’ath Party
regime. Everyone knows who is in power, even if some feel the
regime is weaker than it was in the past.

--Religion. The predominant religion in each country is Islam.
But Iran’s estimated population of 69 million is 89 percent Shia
and 9 percent Sunni. Syria’s estimated population of 18.6
million is 74 percent Sunni followed by Alawis (12 percent),
Christians (10 percent) and Druze (3 percent). Syria’s Shia
population is not broken out as a percentage.

--Ethnicity and language. Iran is 51 percent Persian and only 3
percent Arab. Its predominant language is Persian. Syria is 90
percent Arab and the official language is Arabic. Thus, Iran is
ethnically dissimilar to its surrounding Arab neighbors. Syria is
an Arab state and takes that fact very seriously.

--Trade and oil. Iran’s exports are $55.4 billion. Petroleum
makes up 80 percent of its exports and Iran is a member of
OPEC. Three of its four largest export partners are in Asia –
Japan (16.9 percent), China (11.2 percent) and South Korea (5.8
percent). Its major import partners are Germany (13.7 percent),
the United Arab Emirates (8.3 percent), China (8.2 percent), Italy
(7 percent) and France (6.2 percent).

In contrast, Syria’s exports are estimated at $6.8 billion, much
smaller than Iran’s. Petroleum is not broken out in the export
statistics and Syria is not in OPEC. Its major export markets are
the European Union, Arab countries, the United States and many
others. Major suppliers are Germany, Turkey, Italy, France, the
United States and Japan.

--Nuclear energy programs. Iran is pursuing one that is drawing
scrutiny by the United Nations Security Council. Syria is not
known to be pursuing a nuclear energy program.

--Each country has been designated a state sponsor of terrorism
by the U.S. government – Iran in January 1984 and Syria in
December 1979. However, the U.S. State Department’s State
Sponsor of Terror Overview provides insights into differences in
the behavior of the two countries when it comes to key U.S.
policies.

According to the overview, “Iran remained the most active state
sponsor of terrorism;” it points out Iran’s direct assistance in the
“planning and support” of terrorist activities. This includes
urging groups, including those with key members in Syria and
Lebanon, “to use terrorism in pursuit of their goals.”

The overview also states unwillingness on the part of Iran to
identify and bring to justice senior members of al-Qaeda.

This same document raises the issue of Syria’s continued support
of Hizbullah and Palestinian terrorist groups. Yet it goes on to
mention Syria’s past cooperation with the United States “against
al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations and individuals.” The
overview states that Syria ended its intelligence cooperation due
to U.S. complaints about its “inadequate level” of assistance to
end the flow of money and fighters into Iraq. But the next
paragraph mentions that Syria “made efforts to limit the
movement of foreign fighters into Iraq.”

--Diplomatic relations. The United States does not have
diplomatic relations with Iran. There is neither a U.S. Embassy
in Iran nor an Iranian Embassy in the United States. But there is
a Syrian Embassy in Washington and a U.S. Embassy in
Damascus.

These facts do not deny that these two countries are conducting
activities that affect the peace and stability of the region. There
is also considerable evidence that both are aiding groups that
have been designated terrorist organizations by the U.S.
government.

But these facts also provide insights as to how U.S. foreign
policy might uncouple these two countries by offering different
avenues for engagement. Multilateral engagement with the aid
of U.S. allies in Europe, Asia and the Middle East seems
feasible, especially in the case of Syria.

Engagement might also minimize the areas that these two
countries have in common, including their support of Palestinian
terrorist groups. Now wouldn’t that really be something worth
discussing?

[Defense News]

---

Hott Spotts will return next week.

Brian Trumbore


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Hot Spots

03/29/2007

Syria and Iran

A few weeks ago I read the below piece on Syria and Iran by
Katherine Gockel in the Feb. 26 issue of Defense News and
because it was such a concise analysis, I sought permission from
the publication to reprint it for your benefit.

So I thank Michelle Butler at Army Times Publishing Company
for her assistance in allowing me to do so.

---

Katherine Gockel, program officer at The Stanley Foundation,
Muscatine, Iowa.

“Syria and Iran: A Look at the Facts”

Over the past six to seven months, it seems that two nations have
been “married” together in almost every major policy discussion
on the Middle East. Whether it is the response to the election of
Hamas in Palestine, the Israeli-Hizbullah conflict in Lebanon, the
Iraq Study Group Report or President Bush’s recent speeches,
Syria and Iran are linked – often in the same sentence.

Yet when looking at some basic facts found in documents on the
U.S. State Department Web site, one has to ask if the continued
association of these two countries is actually driving together two
nations that may have less in common than most of us realize.

--Political structure. Iran is an Islamic republic. A theocracy. It
has a president and his power is often discussed, but most experts
agree that the real power still lies with Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei. The political power structure in Iran is considered
murky.

Syria, on the other hand, is officially a republic but is actually a
secular autocracy. Its current leader, Bashar al-Assad, took over
from his father, Hafez al-Assad, continuing the Ba’ath Party
regime. Everyone knows who is in power, even if some feel the
regime is weaker than it was in the past.

--Religion. The predominant religion in each country is Islam.
But Iran’s estimated population of 69 million is 89 percent Shia
and 9 percent Sunni. Syria’s estimated population of 18.6
million is 74 percent Sunni followed by Alawis (12 percent),
Christians (10 percent) and Druze (3 percent). Syria’s Shia
population is not broken out as a percentage.

--Ethnicity and language. Iran is 51 percent Persian and only 3
percent Arab. Its predominant language is Persian. Syria is 90
percent Arab and the official language is Arabic. Thus, Iran is
ethnically dissimilar to its surrounding Arab neighbors. Syria is
an Arab state and takes that fact very seriously.

--Trade and oil. Iran’s exports are $55.4 billion. Petroleum
makes up 80 percent of its exports and Iran is a member of
OPEC. Three of its four largest export partners are in Asia –
Japan (16.9 percent), China (11.2 percent) and South Korea (5.8
percent). Its major import partners are Germany (13.7 percent),
the United Arab Emirates (8.3 percent), China (8.2 percent), Italy
(7 percent) and France (6.2 percent).

In contrast, Syria’s exports are estimated at $6.8 billion, much
smaller than Iran’s. Petroleum is not broken out in the export
statistics and Syria is not in OPEC. Its major export markets are
the European Union, Arab countries, the United States and many
others. Major suppliers are Germany, Turkey, Italy, France, the
United States and Japan.

--Nuclear energy programs. Iran is pursuing one that is drawing
scrutiny by the United Nations Security Council. Syria is not
known to be pursuing a nuclear energy program.

--Each country has been designated a state sponsor of terrorism
by the U.S. government – Iran in January 1984 and Syria in
December 1979. However, the U.S. State Department’s State
Sponsor of Terror Overview provides insights into differences in
the behavior of the two countries when it comes to key U.S.
policies.

According to the overview, “Iran remained the most active state
sponsor of terrorism;” it points out Iran’s direct assistance in the
“planning and support” of terrorist activities. This includes
urging groups, including those with key members in Syria and
Lebanon, “to use terrorism in pursuit of their goals.”

The overview also states unwillingness on the part of Iran to
identify and bring to justice senior members of al-Qaeda.

This same document raises the issue of Syria’s continued support
of Hizbullah and Palestinian terrorist groups. Yet it goes on to
mention Syria’s past cooperation with the United States “against
al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations and individuals.” The
overview states that Syria ended its intelligence cooperation due
to U.S. complaints about its “inadequate level” of assistance to
end the flow of money and fighters into Iraq. But the next
paragraph mentions that Syria “made efforts to limit the
movement of foreign fighters into Iraq.”

--Diplomatic relations. The United States does not have
diplomatic relations with Iran. There is neither a U.S. Embassy
in Iran nor an Iranian Embassy in the United States. But there is
a Syrian Embassy in Washington and a U.S. Embassy in
Damascus.

These facts do not deny that these two countries are conducting
activities that affect the peace and stability of the region. There
is also considerable evidence that both are aiding groups that
have been designated terrorist organizations by the U.S.
government.

But these facts also provide insights as to how U.S. foreign
policy might uncouple these two countries by offering different
avenues for engagement. Multilateral engagement with the aid
of U.S. allies in Europe, Asia and the Middle East seems
feasible, especially in the case of Syria.

Engagement might also minimize the areas that these two
countries have in common, including their support of Palestinian
terrorist groups. Now wouldn’t that really be something worth
discussing?

[Defense News]

---

Hott Spotts will return next week.

Brian Trumbore