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07/26/2007
The Terrorist Threat to the US Homeland
The July 2007 National Intelligence Estimate was just released
and it has raised a few eyebrows.
First, “National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) are the Intelligence
Community’s (IC) most authoritative written judgments on
national security issues and designed to help US civilian and
military leaders develop policies to protect US national security
interests. NIEs usually provide information on the current state
of play but are primarily ‘estimative’ – that is, they make
judgments about the likely course of future events and identify
the implications for US policy.”
The National Intelligence Board, composed of the heads of the
16 Intelligence Community’s agencies and chaired by the Office
of the Director of National Intelligence, reviewed the following
estimates / judgments.
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We judge the US Homeland will face a persistent and evolving
terrorist threat over the next three years. The main threat comes
from Islamic terrorist groups and cells, especially al-Qaeda,
driven by their undiminished intent to attack the Homeland and a
continued effort by these terrorist groups to adapt and improve
their capabilities.
We assess that greatly increased worldwide counterproductive
efforts over the past five years have constrained the ability of al-
Qaeda to attack the US Homeland again and have led terrorist
groups to perceive the Homeland as a harder target to strike than
on 9/11. These measures have helped disrupt known plots
against the United States since 9/11.
--We are concerned, however, that this level of international
cooperation may wane as 9/11 becomes a more distant memory
and perceptions of the threat diverge.
Al-Qaeda is and will remain the most serious terrorist threat to
the Homeland, as its central leadership continues to plan high-
impact plots, while pushing others in extremist Sunni
communities to mimic its efforts and to supplement its
capabilities. We assess the group has protected or regenerated
key elements of its Homeland attack capability, including: a
safehaven in the Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas
(FATA), operational lieutenants, and its top leadership.
Although we have discovered only a handful of individuals in the
United States with ties to al-Qaeda senior leadership since 9/11,
we judge that al-Qaeda will intensify its efforts to put operatives
here.
--As a result, we judge that the United States currently is in a
heightened threat environment.
We assess that al-Qaeda will continue to enhance its capabilities
to attack the Homeland through greater cooperation with regional
terrorist groups. Of note, we assess that al-Qaeda will probably
seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of al-Qaeda in Iraq
(AQI), its most visible and capable affiliate and the only one
known to have expressed a desire to attack the Homeland. In
addition, we assess that its association with AQI helps al-Qaeda
to energize the broader Sunni extremist community, raise
resources, and to recruit and indoctrinate operatives, including
for Homeland attacks.
We assess that al-Qaeda’s Homeland plotting is likely to
continue to focus on prominent political, economic, and
infrastructure targets with the goal of producing mass casualties,
visually dramatic destruction, significant economic aftershocks,
and/or fear among the US population. The group is proficient
with conventional small arms and improvised explosive devices,
and is innovative in creating new capabilities and overcoming
security obstacles.
--We assess that al-Qaeda will continue to try to acquire and
employ chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear material in
attacks and would not hesitate to use them if it develops what it
deems is sufficient capability.
We assess Lebanese Hizbullah, which has conducted anti-US
attacks outside the United States in the past, may be more likely
to consider attacking the Homeland over the next three years if it
perceives the United States as posing a direct threat to the group
or Iran.
We assess that the spread of radical – especially Salafi – Internet
sites, increasingly aggressive anti-US rhetoric and actions, and
the growing number of radical, self-generating cells in Western
countries indicate that the radical and violent segment of the
West’s Muslim population is expanding, including in the United
States. The arrest and prosecution by US law enforcement of a
small number of violent Islamic extremists inside the United
States – who are becoming more connected ideologically,
virtually, and/or in a physical sense to the global extremist
movement – points to the possibility that others may become
sufficiently radicalized that they will view the use of violence
here as legitimate. We assess that this internal Muslim terrorist
threat is not likely to be as severe as it is in Europe, however.
We assess that other, non-Muslim terrorist groups – often
referred to as ‘single-issue’ groups by the FBI – probably will
conduct attacks over the next three years given their violent
histories, but we assess this violence is likely to be on a small
scale.
We assess that globalization trends and recent technological
advances will continue to enable even small numbers of alienated
people to find and connect with one another, justify and intensify
their anger, and mobilize resources to attack – all without
requiring a centralized terrorist organization, training camp, or
leader.
--The ability to detect broader and more diverse terrorist plotting
in this environment will challenge current US defensive efforts
and the tools we use to detect and disrupt plots. It will also
require greater understanding of how suspect activities at the
local level relate to strategic threat information and how best to
identify indicators of terrorist activity in the midst of legitimate
interactions.
Source: odni.gov
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Hot Spots returns next week.
Brian Trumbore
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