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09/26/2017

North Korea and China

Sarah Zheng of the South China Morning Post had a piece on what China would accept, and what it fears, when it comes to North Korea.

Three reasons why China is so opposed to Kim Jong-Un’s regime having nuclear weapons:

1. Fears of a regional arms race

“Observers say China is extremely wary of its neighbors obtaining a credible nuclear arsenal as it poses an obvious risk to its own security. It has also prompted concerns in Beijing that a regional arms race would develop, with South Korea and Japan feeling the need to obtain their own nuclear weapons.

“South Korea’s official policy is to pursue a nuclear-free Korean peninsula after giving up its own nuclear weapons program in the 1970s, although some experts believe it still has the technical capacity and equipment to produce them.

“South Korea says its policy remains unchanged, but Deng Yuwen, a senior researcher at the Charhar Institute think tank, wrote in a commentary that Seoul and the U.S. were discussing reintroducing American weaponry with nuclear warheads.

“ ‘China will have no choice, but to accept South Korea developing nuclear weapons,’ Deng wrote.”

2. Undermining non-proliferation regime

“China is a signatory of the International Non-Proliferation Treaty aimed at limiting the spread of nuclear weapons and championing nuclear disarmament.  Japan, the United States and 185 other UN member countries have also signed.

“China accepting North Korea as a nuclear state would be a surprise as other emerging nuclear powers such as India and Pakistan have not been accepted under the non-proliferation regime.

“ ‘If other emerging nuclear powers such as India, Pakistan and Israel have yet to be accepted as nuclear weapon states under the NPT regime, why should North Korea be an exceptional case?’ said Yue Gang, a retired Chinese colonel and military expert.”

3. Safety fears

“The North Korean regime is bellicose and unpredictable and Deng said Beijing fears its nuclear weapons program could lead to radiation leaks into its territory.

“In a worst-case scenario, the weapons could be turned against China itself, said Deng.  ‘If relations between China and North Korea deteriorate further, no one can guarantee that Kim will not use nuclear weapons against China.’”

[Source: Sarah Zheng / South China Morning Post, scmp.com

Hot Spots will be back in a few weeks.

Brian Trumbore



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Hot Spots

09/26/2017

North Korea and China

Sarah Zheng of the South China Morning Post had a piece on what China would accept, and what it fears, when it comes to North Korea.

Three reasons why China is so opposed to Kim Jong-Un’s regime having nuclear weapons:

1. Fears of a regional arms race

“Observers say China is extremely wary of its neighbors obtaining a credible nuclear arsenal as it poses an obvious risk to its own security. It has also prompted concerns in Beijing that a regional arms race would develop, with South Korea and Japan feeling the need to obtain their own nuclear weapons.

“South Korea’s official policy is to pursue a nuclear-free Korean peninsula after giving up its own nuclear weapons program in the 1970s, although some experts believe it still has the technical capacity and equipment to produce them.

“South Korea says its policy remains unchanged, but Deng Yuwen, a senior researcher at the Charhar Institute think tank, wrote in a commentary that Seoul and the U.S. were discussing reintroducing American weaponry with nuclear warheads.

“ ‘China will have no choice, but to accept South Korea developing nuclear weapons,’ Deng wrote.”

2. Undermining non-proliferation regime

“China is a signatory of the International Non-Proliferation Treaty aimed at limiting the spread of nuclear weapons and championing nuclear disarmament.  Japan, the United States and 185 other UN member countries have also signed.

“China accepting North Korea as a nuclear state would be a surprise as other emerging nuclear powers such as India and Pakistan have not been accepted under the non-proliferation regime.

“ ‘If other emerging nuclear powers such as India, Pakistan and Israel have yet to be accepted as nuclear weapon states under the NPT regime, why should North Korea be an exceptional case?’ said Yue Gang, a retired Chinese colonel and military expert.”

3. Safety fears

“The North Korean regime is bellicose and unpredictable and Deng said Beijing fears its nuclear weapons program could lead to radiation leaks into its territory.

“In a worst-case scenario, the weapons could be turned against China itself, said Deng.  ‘If relations between China and North Korea deteriorate further, no one can guarantee that Kim will not use nuclear weapons against China.’”

[Source: Sarah Zheng / South China Morning Post, scmp.com

Hot Spots will be back in a few weeks.

Brian Trumbore