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Wall Street History
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01/01/2006
2005...and more
Various market returns and benchmarks ..
2005 [Total return, including dividends, for the Dow and S&P]
Dow Jones .....+1.7 S&P 500 . +4.9 Nasdaq ....+1.4 Tokyo .+40.2 [Nikkei] London ...+16.7 [FTSE] Frankfurt +27.1 [DAX]
Energy all-time highs 2005
Oil, $70.85 (8/30) Unleaded gasoline, $2.92 (8/31) Natural gas, $15.37 (12/13)
Key historical figures
12/31/99
Dow Jones 11497 S&P 500 .1469 Nasdaq 4069
All-time market highs 2000
Dow Jones 11722 (1/14) S&P 500 1527 (3/24) Nasdaq ...5048 (3/10)
12/31/05
Dow Jones 10717 -9% off high..52-wk range [10940-10012] S&P 500 1248 -18% off high 52-wk range [1272-1137] Nasdaq ...2205 -56% off high 52-wk range [2273-1904]
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S&P 500 [Total return including dividends]
1995 +37.4 1996 +23.1 1997 +33.4 1998 +28.6 1999 +21.0 2000 -9.1 2001 -11.9 2002 -22.1 2003 +28.7 2004 +10.9 2005 +4.9
Nasdaq
1995 +39.9 1996 +22.7 1997 +21.6 1998 +39.6 1999 +85.6 2000 -39.3 2001 -21.1 2002 -31.5 2003 +50.0 2004 +8.6 2005 +1.4
Gold
12/96 $368 12/97 $289 12/98 $288 12/99 $289 12/00 $272 12/01 $279 12/02 $347 12/03 $416 12/04 $438 12/05 $519
Oil (Light Sweet Crude)
12/99 $25.20 12/00 $26.80 12/01 $19.84 12/02 $31.20 12/03 $32.52 12/04 $43.45 12/05 $61.04
Interest Rates U.S. Treasury Yields
Date ..2-year .10-year
12/31/99 6.24 ..6.43
6/13/03 ..1.01 ..3.10 historic lows in yield
12/31/03 1.82 ..4.25
12/31/04 3.07 ..4.22
12/31/05 4.40 ..4.39
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The month of January supplies us with two interesting indicators; the “first five days” early warning system and the full-month barometer (which I’ll cover next week).
Employing the S&P 500, since 1950 the market has risen over the first five days of the year 35 times. In 30 of these the market has then proceeded to post full-year gains. [The record is more mixed, 11 up / 10 down, in the 21 years where the market declined the first five days.]
A sampling
S&P 500 Total return 1st 5 days / Jan.
1995 +37.4% .. +0.3% 1996 +23.1 . +0.4 1997 +33.4 . +1.0 1998 +28.6 . -1.5 1999 +21.0 . +3.7 2000 .. -9.1 .. -1.9 2001 . -11.9 . -1.8 2002 . -22.1 . +1.1 2003 +28.7 . +3.4 2004 +10.9 . +1.8 2005 ..+4.9 -2.1
Source: “Stock Trader’s Almanac / 2006.” *Note: I have listed the total return figures for the S&P 500 above, including dividends. “Stock Trader’s Almanac” only uses the gross figure for the index without including dividends.
Have a healthy and prosperous new year.
Wall Street History returns next week with more data.
Brian Trumbore
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