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Wall Street History

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01/01/2006

2005...and more

Various market returns and benchmarks ..

2005 [Total return, including dividends, for the Dow and S&P]

Dow Jones .....+1.7
S&P 500 . +4.9
Nasdaq ....+1.4
Tokyo .+40.2 [Nikkei]
London ...+16.7 [FTSE]
Frankfurt +27.1 [DAX]

Energy all-time highs 2005

Oil, $70.85 (8/30)
Unleaded gasoline, $2.92 (8/31)
Natural gas, $15.37 (12/13)

Key historical figures

12/31/99

Dow Jones 11497
S&P 500 .1469
Nasdaq 4069

All-time market highs 2000

Dow Jones 11722 (1/14)
S&P 500 1527 (3/24)
Nasdaq ...5048 (3/10)

12/31/05

Dow Jones 10717 -9% off high..52-wk range [10940-10012]
S&P 500 1248 -18% off high 52-wk range [1272-1137]
Nasdaq ...2205 -56% off high 52-wk range [2273-1904]

---

S&P 500 [Total return including dividends]

1995 +37.4
1996 +23.1
1997 +33.4
1998 +28.6
1999 +21.0
2000 -9.1
2001 -11.9
2002 -22.1
2003 +28.7
2004 +10.9
2005 +4.9

Nasdaq

1995 +39.9
1996 +22.7
1997 +21.6
1998 +39.6
1999 +85.6
2000 -39.3
2001 -21.1
2002 -31.5
2003 +50.0
2004 +8.6
2005 +1.4

Gold

12/96 $368
12/97 $289
12/98 $288
12/99 $289
12/00 $272
12/01 $279
12/02 $347
12/03 $416
12/04 $438
12/05 $519

Oil (Light Sweet Crude)

12/99 $25.20
12/00 $26.80
12/01 $19.84
12/02 $31.20
12/03 $32.52
12/04 $43.45
12/05 $61.04

Interest Rates U.S. Treasury Yields

Date ..2-year .10-year

12/31/99 6.24 ..6.43

6/13/03 ..1.01 ..3.10 historic lows in yield

12/31/03 1.82 ..4.25

12/31/04 3.07 ..4.22

12/31/05 4.40 ..4.39

---

The month of January supplies us with two interesting indicators;
the “first five days” early warning system and the full-month
barometer (which I’ll cover next week).

Employing the S&P 500, since 1950 the market has risen over
the first five days of the year 35 times. In 30 of these the market
has then proceeded to post full-year gains. [The record is more
mixed, 11 up / 10 down, in the 21 years where the market
declined the first five days.]

A sampling

S&P 500 Total return 1st 5 days / Jan.

1995 +37.4% .. +0.3%
1996 +23.1 . +0.4
1997 +33.4 . +1.0
1998 +28.6 . -1.5
1999 +21.0 . +3.7
2000 .. -9.1 .. -1.9
2001 . -11.9 . -1.8
2002 . -22.1 . +1.1
2003 +28.7 . +3.4
2004 +10.9 . +1.8
2005 ..+4.9 -2.1

Source: “Stock Trader’s Almanac / 2006.” *Note: I have listed
the total return figures for the S&P 500 above, including
dividends. “Stock Trader’s Almanac” only uses the gross figure
for the index without including dividends.

Have a healthy and prosperous new year.

Wall Street History returns next week with more data.

Brian Trumbore



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-01/01/2006-      
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Wall Street History

01/01/2006

2005...and more

Various market returns and benchmarks ..

2005 [Total return, including dividends, for the Dow and S&P]

Dow Jones .....+1.7
S&P 500 . +4.9
Nasdaq ....+1.4
Tokyo .+40.2 [Nikkei]
London ...+16.7 [FTSE]
Frankfurt +27.1 [DAX]

Energy all-time highs 2005

Oil, $70.85 (8/30)
Unleaded gasoline, $2.92 (8/31)
Natural gas, $15.37 (12/13)

Key historical figures

12/31/99

Dow Jones 11497
S&P 500 .1469
Nasdaq 4069

All-time market highs 2000

Dow Jones 11722 (1/14)
S&P 500 1527 (3/24)
Nasdaq ...5048 (3/10)

12/31/05

Dow Jones 10717 -9% off high..52-wk range [10940-10012]
S&P 500 1248 -18% off high 52-wk range [1272-1137]
Nasdaq ...2205 -56% off high 52-wk range [2273-1904]

---

S&P 500 [Total return including dividends]

1995 +37.4
1996 +23.1
1997 +33.4
1998 +28.6
1999 +21.0
2000 -9.1
2001 -11.9
2002 -22.1
2003 +28.7
2004 +10.9
2005 +4.9

Nasdaq

1995 +39.9
1996 +22.7
1997 +21.6
1998 +39.6
1999 +85.6
2000 -39.3
2001 -21.1
2002 -31.5
2003 +50.0
2004 +8.6
2005 +1.4

Gold

12/96 $368
12/97 $289
12/98 $288
12/99 $289
12/00 $272
12/01 $279
12/02 $347
12/03 $416
12/04 $438
12/05 $519

Oil (Light Sweet Crude)

12/99 $25.20
12/00 $26.80
12/01 $19.84
12/02 $31.20
12/03 $32.52
12/04 $43.45
12/05 $61.04

Interest Rates U.S. Treasury Yields

Date ..2-year .10-year

12/31/99 6.24 ..6.43

6/13/03 ..1.01 ..3.10 historic lows in yield

12/31/03 1.82 ..4.25

12/31/04 3.07 ..4.22

12/31/05 4.40 ..4.39

---

The month of January supplies us with two interesting indicators;
the “first five days” early warning system and the full-month
barometer (which I’ll cover next week).

Employing the S&P 500, since 1950 the market has risen over
the first five days of the year 35 times. In 30 of these the market
has then proceeded to post full-year gains. [The record is more
mixed, 11 up / 10 down, in the 21 years where the market
declined the first five days.]

A sampling

S&P 500 Total return 1st 5 days / Jan.

1995 +37.4% .. +0.3%
1996 +23.1 . +0.4
1997 +33.4 . +1.0
1998 +28.6 . -1.5
1999 +21.0 . +3.7
2000 .. -9.1 .. -1.9
2001 . -11.9 . -1.8
2002 . -22.1 . +1.1
2003 +28.7 . +3.4
2004 +10.9 . +1.8
2005 ..+4.9 -2.1

Source: “Stock Trader’s Almanac / 2006.” *Note: I have listed
the total return figures for the S&P 500 above, including
dividends. “Stock Trader’s Almanac” only uses the gross figure
for the index without including dividends.

Have a healthy and prosperous new year.

Wall Street History returns next week with more data.

Brian Trumbore