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05/19/2006

Deficits 101

The following is but one way of looking at the fiscal health of the
United States Government. I offer it without political opinion.

The Public Debt

Q: What is the difference between the debt and the deficit?

A: The deficit is the fiscal year difference between what the
United States Government (Government) takes in from taxes and
other revenues, called receipts, and the amount of money the
Government spends, called outlays. The items included in the
deficit are considered either on-budget or off-budget. [The off-
budget items are typically comprised of the two Social Security
trust funds and other insurance programs.] Generally, on-
budget outlays tend to exceed on-budget receipts, while off-
budget receipts tend to exceed off-budget outlays.

You can think of the total debt as accumulated deficits plus
accumulated off-budget surpluses. The on-budget deficits
require the Treasury to borrow money to raise cash needed to
keep the Government operating. We borrow the money by
selling Treasury securities like T-bills, notes, bonds and savings
bonds to the public. Additionally, the Government Trust Funds
are required by law to invest accumulated surpluses in Treasury
securities. The Treasury securities issued to the public and to the
Government Trust Funds (Intragovernmental Holdings) then
become part of the total debt.

Total Public Debt as of 5/17/2006 $8,337,013,432,029

4/28/06 $8.355 trillion
3/31/06 .8.371
2/28/06 .8.269
1/31/06 .8.196
12/30/05...8.170

9/30/05 .7.932
9/30/04 .7.379
9/30/03 .6.783
9/30/02 .6.228
9/30/01 .5.807
9/30/00 .5.674
9/30/99 .5.656
9/30/98 .5.526
9/30/97 .5.413
9/30/96 .5.224
9/30/95 .4.973
9/30/94 .4.692
9/30/93 .4.411
9/30/92 .4.064
9/30/91 .3.665
9/30/90 .3.233
9/30/89 .2.857
9/30/88 .2.602
9/30/87 .2.350
9/30/86 .2.125
12/31/85...1.945
12/31/84...1.662
12/31/83...1.410
12/31/82...1.197
12/31/81...1.028
12/31/80 0.930
12/31/79 0.845
12/31/78 0.789
12/31/77 0.718
12/31/76 0.653
12/31/75 0.576
12/31/74 0.492
12/31/73 0.469
12/31/72 0.449
12/31/71 0.424
12/31/70 0.389
12/31/69 0.368
12/31/68 0.358
12/31/67 0.344
12/31/66 0.329
12/31/65 0.320
12/31/64 0.317
12/31/63 0.309
12/31/62 0.303
12/31/61 0.296
12/31/60 0.290
12/31/59 0.290
12/31/58 0.282
12/31/57 0.274
12/31/56 0.276
12/31/55 0.280
12/31/54 0.278
12/31/53 0.275
6/30/53 ..0.266
6/30/52 ..0.259
6/30/51 ..0.255
6/30/50 ..0.257

Notes: I took slight liberties with the dates, i.e., 6/29 or 9/29 in
some years is stated as 6/30 or 9/30 just for ease of viewing.
Also the definition of the fiscal year changed as you can see.

The total size of the U.S. economy is $13.020 trillion (as of
3/31/06), which means that the total public debt is 64% of GDP,
one common way of looking at the debt. This is a historically
high level.

The other way is to look at the size of the fiscal budget deficit vs.
GDP, and if you assume a 2006 (fiscal year 9/30) deficit of $350
billion (the White House originally projected it at $423 billion,
though now experts peg it anywhere from $300 billion to $350
billion thanks to continued growth in receipts), it is thus 2.6-
2.7% of GDP, or just slightly higher than the 40-year average of
2.3%.

But, any deficits are continually adding to the total public debt
and the interest expense on same is huge; anywhere from $211
billion to $350 billion depending on what categories you include.
Plus, as you are well aware, the public debt is about to explode
further as the Baby Boomers retire and entitlements such as
Social Security and Medicare gain steam.

Sources:

Bureau of the Public Debt
U.S. Treasury Dept.
Office of Management and Budget
Bureau of Economic Analysis

Wall Street History returns next week.

Brian Trumbore



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Wall Street History

05/19/2006

Deficits 101

The following is but one way of looking at the fiscal health of the
United States Government. I offer it without political opinion.

The Public Debt

Q: What is the difference between the debt and the deficit?

A: The deficit is the fiscal year difference between what the
United States Government (Government) takes in from taxes and
other revenues, called receipts, and the amount of money the
Government spends, called outlays. The items included in the
deficit are considered either on-budget or off-budget. [The off-
budget items are typically comprised of the two Social Security
trust funds and other insurance programs.] Generally, on-
budget outlays tend to exceed on-budget receipts, while off-
budget receipts tend to exceed off-budget outlays.

You can think of the total debt as accumulated deficits plus
accumulated off-budget surpluses. The on-budget deficits
require the Treasury to borrow money to raise cash needed to
keep the Government operating. We borrow the money by
selling Treasury securities like T-bills, notes, bonds and savings
bonds to the public. Additionally, the Government Trust Funds
are required by law to invest accumulated surpluses in Treasury
securities. The Treasury securities issued to the public and to the
Government Trust Funds (Intragovernmental Holdings) then
become part of the total debt.

Total Public Debt as of 5/17/2006 $8,337,013,432,029

4/28/06 $8.355 trillion
3/31/06 .8.371
2/28/06 .8.269
1/31/06 .8.196
12/30/05...8.170

9/30/05 .7.932
9/30/04 .7.379
9/30/03 .6.783
9/30/02 .6.228
9/30/01 .5.807
9/30/00 .5.674
9/30/99 .5.656
9/30/98 .5.526
9/30/97 .5.413
9/30/96 .5.224
9/30/95 .4.973
9/30/94 .4.692
9/30/93 .4.411
9/30/92 .4.064
9/30/91 .3.665
9/30/90 .3.233
9/30/89 .2.857
9/30/88 .2.602
9/30/87 .2.350
9/30/86 .2.125
12/31/85...1.945
12/31/84...1.662
12/31/83...1.410
12/31/82...1.197
12/31/81...1.028
12/31/80 0.930
12/31/79 0.845
12/31/78 0.789
12/31/77 0.718
12/31/76 0.653
12/31/75 0.576
12/31/74 0.492
12/31/73 0.469
12/31/72 0.449
12/31/71 0.424
12/31/70 0.389
12/31/69 0.368
12/31/68 0.358
12/31/67 0.344
12/31/66 0.329
12/31/65 0.320
12/31/64 0.317
12/31/63 0.309
12/31/62 0.303
12/31/61 0.296
12/31/60 0.290
12/31/59 0.290
12/31/58 0.282
12/31/57 0.274
12/31/56 0.276
12/31/55 0.280
12/31/54 0.278
12/31/53 0.275
6/30/53 ..0.266
6/30/52 ..0.259
6/30/51 ..0.255
6/30/50 ..0.257

Notes: I took slight liberties with the dates, i.e., 6/29 or 9/29 in
some years is stated as 6/30 or 9/30 just for ease of viewing.
Also the definition of the fiscal year changed as you can see.

The total size of the U.S. economy is $13.020 trillion (as of
3/31/06), which means that the total public debt is 64% of GDP,
one common way of looking at the debt. This is a historically
high level.

The other way is to look at the size of the fiscal budget deficit vs.
GDP, and if you assume a 2006 (fiscal year 9/30) deficit of $350
billion (the White House originally projected it at $423 billion,
though now experts peg it anywhere from $300 billion to $350
billion thanks to continued growth in receipts), it is thus 2.6-
2.7% of GDP, or just slightly higher than the 40-year average of
2.3%.

But, any deficits are continually adding to the total public debt
and the interest expense on same is huge; anywhere from $211
billion to $350 billion depending on what categories you include.
Plus, as you are well aware, the public debt is about to explode
further as the Baby Boomers retire and entitlements such as
Social Security and Medicare gain steam.

Sources:

Bureau of the Public Debt
U.S. Treasury Dept.
Office of Management and Budget
Bureau of Economic Analysis

Wall Street History returns next week.

Brian Trumbore