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Wall Street History
https://www.gofundme.com/s3h2w8
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06/23/2006
Energy Outlook
The Energy Information Administration, an agency of the U.S. Government, just released its annual report on the world energy and economic outlook.
Summarizing:
--Projecting from 2003 to 2030, with world economic growth expected to be at an annual rate of 3.8 percent, total world consumption of marketed energy will expand from 421 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2003 to 563 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and then to 722 quadrillion Btu in 2030, or a 71- percent increase from 2003 to 2030.
--The expected energy consumption will come from all sources. Oil remains the dominant energy source over the projection period, but its share of total world energy consumption declines from 38 percent in 2003 to 33 percent in 2030, “Largely in response to higher world oil prices in this year’s outlook, which dampen oil demand in the mid-term.”
--Worldwide oil consumption rises from 80 million barrels per day in 2003 (and 85 million today) to 98 million barrels per day in 2015 and then to 118 million barrels per day in 2030. [Where the 100, let alone 118 mmbd is going to come from is anyone’s guess.]
--On natural gas, the International Energy Outlook report has projected that natural gas would be “the fastest growing energy source in the mid-term; however, higher natural gas prices in IEO2006 make coal more cost-competitive, especially in the electric power sector, and as a result natural gas use and coal use increase at similar rates. Natural gas rises by an average 2.4 percent per year over the 2003 to 2030 period and coal use by an average of 2.5 percent per year.”
--“The industrial sector remains the most important end-use consumer for natural gas worldwide, accounting for 52 percent of the total growth in natural gas use in the projections; however, natural gas also remains an important energy source in the electric power sector.”
--“In this year’s outlook for coal, nearly all regions of the world show some increase in coal use, except for Japan. In Japan, the electricity sector continues to be dominated by natural gas and nuclear power generation. In addition, with its population growing more slowly, Japan’s electricity demand is likely to grow slowly, so that new coal-fired capacity additions are unlikely to be needed.”
[I, for one, never think enough about population trends when mulling over the energy topic.]
--The largest increases in coal use worldwide are projected for China and India, where coal supplies are plentiful. [We covered this last week as well.]
--As for economic growth, the projected growth of 3.8 percent annually from 2003 to 2030 is higher than the past 30 years because most of the countries expected to see more rapid growth are developing nations “that have undertaken significant reforms over the past several years. Improved macroeconomic policies, trade liberalization, more flexible exchange rate regimes, and lower fiscal deficits have lowered their national inflation rates, reduced uncertainty, and improved their overall investment climates. More microeconomic structural reforms, such as privatization and regulatory reform, have also played key roles. In general, such reforms have resulted in growth rates that are above historical trends in most of these economies over the past 5 to 10 years.”
Source: Energy Information Administration; eia.doe.gov
Next week, a closer look at India’s economy and the problems with its educational system.
Brian Trumbore
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