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Wall Street History
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05/11/2007
Ethanol and the Poor
The debate over ethanol continues to rage in some policy circles and University of Minnesota professors C. Ford Runge and Benjamin Senauer have added to it with an essay for the May/June edition of Foreign Affairs.
Following is a summary of their piece titled “How Biofuels Could Starve the Poor.”
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In 1974, in the midst of the Arab Oil Embargo and America’s first real energy crisis involving OPEC, Congress took the first of many initiatives to promote ethanol made from corn as an alternative fuel. Additionally, lead, as a fuel additive, was gradually phased out at the same time and replaced by ethanol. But the United States continued to become more dependent on imported oil and the impact from ethanol was marginal at best.
Today, thanks to a combination of excessive subsidies and high oil prices, corn-based ethanol has taken off with 110 refineries in operation in the U.S. by end of 2006 and at least another 70 under construction. When all are completed ethanol capacity would reach 11.4 billion gallons per year and in his latest State of the Union address, President George W. Bush called for 35 billion gallons of renewable fuel per year by 2017. So the push will continue.
Globally, in 2005, ethanol production was 9.66 billion gallons, of which both Brazil and the U.S. produced 45% each. [Global production of biodiesel (mostly from Europe) is another one billion gallons.]
But whereas Brazil gets its ethanol from sugar cane, the U.S. uses corn and according to some estimates, as Runge and Senauer note, “ethanol plants will burn up to half of U.S. domestic corn supplies within a few years. Ethanol demand will bring 2007 inventories of corn to their lowest levels since 1995 (a drought year), even though 2006 yielded the third-largest corn crop on record. Iowa may soon become a net corn importer.”
[The United States accounts for 40% of the world’s total corn production and over half of all corn exports.]
Of course this is sending shock waves through the food system as corn futures have risen to their highest level in ten years now around $3.50 a bushel but earlier as high as $4.40.
While this sounds good to corn producers, obviously consumers are suffering, especially those in developing nations, who are hit with a double shock if oil prices remain high. “The World Bank has estimated that in 2001, 2.7 billion people in the world were living on the equivalent of less than $2 a day; to them, even marginal increases in the cost of staple grains could be devastating.”
And consider this, as noted by Runge and Senauer. “Filling the 25-gallon tank of an SUV with pure ethanol requires 450 pounds of corn – which contains enough calories to feed one person for a year.”
In the United States, ethanol has resulted, directly or indirectly, in some $8.9 billion in subsidies for corn farmers, though this figure will decline with higher corn prices. The federal government then grants ethanol blenders a tax allowance of 51 cents per gallon of ethanol that they produce, with some states tacking on further subsidies of their own.
But despite a global trend towards biofuels, demand for crude oil isn’t about to go away. In fact it is certainly going to increase, faster than it can be produced; let alone the fact much of it remains in politically risky areas. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest projections, global energy consumption will rise 70% between 2003 and 2030, with demand from the likes of China and India surpassing that of the developed world potentially by 2015. In other words, it’s hard to see oil prices falling, which in turn “will allow ethanol and biodiesel producers to pay much higher premiums for corn and oilseeds than was conceivable just a few years ago .If oil reaches $80 per barrel, ethanol producers could afford to pay well over $5 per bushel for corn.”
With growth in the biofuel industry, land used to grow corn is reducing the acreage of other crops, of course. This means higher prices, that are in turn hitting the livestock and poultry industries. Higher feed costs have caused returns to fall sharply in the pork and dairy industries, for example. In Iowa, ethanol producers may feel smug these days, but the state’s pork producers could go out of business over the competition for corn supplies.
And “biofuel mania” has fanned the flames of the speculators, including hedge funds.
Runge and Senauer comment, though, on the disregard for the actual consequences.
“It seems to unite powerful forces, including motorists’ enthusiasm for large, fuel-inefficient vehicles and guilt over the ecological consequences of petroleum-based fuels. But even as ethanol has created opportunities for huge profits for agribusiness, speculators, and some farmers, it has upset the traditional flows of commodities and the patterns of trade and consumption both inside and outside of the agricultural sector.”
The root of the problem on the ethanol front lies with the fact the biofuel industry has always been dominated by politics, not market forces. Corn is the raw material of choice in the U.S., even though biofuels could be made efficiently from a variety of other sources, but only if the government initially funds the research and development.
Take the example of ADM, Archer Daniels Midland Company. It positioned itself as the “supermarket to the world” and “aimed to create value from bulk commodities by transforming them into processed products that command heftier prices.” In 2006, ADM was far and away the largest producer of ethanol in the United States, but the company owes much of its growth to political connections, going back to the days of Vice President Hubert Humphrey. As critic James Bovard once noted, “half of ADM’s profits have come from products that the U.S. government has either subsidized or protected.”
Runge and Senauer:
“Biofuels may have even more devastating effects in the rest of the world, especially on the prices of basic foods. If oil prices remain high the people most vulnerable to the price hikes brought on by the biofuel boom will be those in countries that both suffer food deficits and import petroleum. The risk extends to a part of the developing world: in 2005, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, most of the 82 low-income countries with food deficits were also net oil importers.”
But even major oil exporters, such as Mexico, can have their own issues on the consequences of higher food prices; witness the intense protests late last year over the rise in the price of tortilla flour due to the 50% increase in U.S. corn prices. [“Prices rose even though tortillas are made mainly from Mexican-grown white corn because industrial users of the imported yellow corn, which is used for animal feed and processed foods, started buying the cheaper white variety.]
Consider that the world’s poorest people “already spend 50% to 80% of their total household income on food.”
Runge and Senauer’s conclusion:
“The future can be brighter if the right steps are taken now. Limiting U.S. dependence on fossil fuels requires a comprehensive energy-conservation program. Rather than promoting more mandates, tax breaks, and subsides for biofuels, the U.S. government should make a major commitment to substantially increasing energy efficiency in vehicles, homes, and factories; promoting alternative sources of energy, such as solar and wind power; and investing in research to improve agricultural productivity and raise the efficiency of fuels derived from cellulose. Washington’s fixation on corn-based ethanol has distorted the national agenda and diverted its attention from developing a broad and balanced strategy. In March, the U.S. Energy Department announced that it would invest up to $385 million in six biorefineries designed to convert cellulose into ethanol. That is a promising step in the right direction.”
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Editor note: In the interest of full disclosure, I have been investing in a biodiesel company headquartered in China, but, this particular play produces its fuel from vegetable oil and restaurant waste, which Professors Runge and Senauer note is more energy efficient than other alternatives.
I also chose not to write about the debate over ethanol and greenhouse gas emissions as part of the above. I have read all sides of this one and to me the evidence is still inconclusive.
Wall Street History will return next week.
Brian Trumbore
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