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08/17/2007

You Want Volatility?

Just a brief note on volatility. Ive gotten a kick out of some of
the recent commentary on CNBC, especially among their
anchors; as in We are witnessing unprecedented volatility!

Well, for the record, here are the movements in the Dow Jones
and Nasdaq the last five weeks, figures that Ive kept myself
since late 1999 (and which can be found in Week in Review,
of course).

Week ending

7/13/07 +2.2 DJ +1.5 Nasdaq
7/20/07 -0.4 DJ . -0.7 Nasdaq
7/27/07 -4.2 DJ . -4.7 Nasdaq
8/3/07 .. -0.6 DJ . -2.0 Nasdaq
8/10/07 +0.4 DJ +1.3 Nasdaq

Lets look at some real volatility. As in the year 2000 for
Nasdaq.

Week ending

12/24/99 +5.8
12/31/99 +2.5 Nasdaq finishes year at 4069
1/7/00 -4.6
1/14/00 .. +4.7
1/21/00 .. +4.2
1/28/00 .. -8.2
2/4/00 +9.2
2/11/00 .. +3.6
2/18/00 . +0.4
2/25/00 . +4.1
3/3/00 ... +7.1
3/10/00 . +2.7 Nasdaq hits all-time high of 5048 on 3/10
3/17/00 . -5.0
3/24/00 . +3.5
3/31/00 . -7.9
4/7/00 ... -2.8
4/14/00 -25.3 Nasdaq closes at 3320, down 34.2% from high
4/21/00 . +9.7
4/28/00 . +6.0
5/5/00 ... -1.1
5/12/00 . -7.5
5/19/00 . -3.9
5/26/00 . -5.5
6/2/00 . +19.0 Nasdaq closes at 3813

At this point, volatility lessened some, but the week ending
7/28/00 still saw another 10.5% decline. Nasdaq then embarked
on a 5-week winning streak that took the average back to 4234
on 9/1/00. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 had also rallied back
strongly from their spring lows, in what proved to be one of the
biggest fake-out moves of all time. After 9/1/00, Nasdaq
proceeded to decline 15 of the next 18 weeks and was at 2407 on
1/5/01, on its way to 1139 by 10/4/02.

Next week some thoughts on the farm economy, as Im in Iowa.

Brian Trumbore



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-08/17/2007-      
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Wall Street History

08/17/2007

You Want Volatility?

Just a brief note on volatility. Ive gotten a kick out of some of
the recent commentary on CNBC, especially among their
anchors; as in We are witnessing unprecedented volatility!

Well, for the record, here are the movements in the Dow Jones
and Nasdaq the last five weeks, figures that Ive kept myself
since late 1999 (and which can be found in Week in Review,
of course).

Week ending

7/13/07 +2.2 DJ +1.5 Nasdaq
7/20/07 -0.4 DJ . -0.7 Nasdaq
7/27/07 -4.2 DJ . -4.7 Nasdaq
8/3/07 .. -0.6 DJ . -2.0 Nasdaq
8/10/07 +0.4 DJ +1.3 Nasdaq

Lets look at some real volatility. As in the year 2000 for
Nasdaq.

Week ending

12/24/99 +5.8
12/31/99 +2.5 Nasdaq finishes year at 4069
1/7/00 -4.6
1/14/00 .. +4.7
1/21/00 .. +4.2
1/28/00 .. -8.2
2/4/00 +9.2
2/11/00 .. +3.6
2/18/00 . +0.4
2/25/00 . +4.1
3/3/00 ... +7.1
3/10/00 . +2.7 Nasdaq hits all-time high of 5048 on 3/10
3/17/00 . -5.0
3/24/00 . +3.5
3/31/00 . -7.9
4/7/00 ... -2.8
4/14/00 -25.3 Nasdaq closes at 3320, down 34.2% from high
4/21/00 . +9.7
4/28/00 . +6.0
5/5/00 ... -1.1
5/12/00 . -7.5
5/19/00 . -3.9
5/26/00 . -5.5
6/2/00 . +19.0 Nasdaq closes at 3813

At this point, volatility lessened some, but the week ending
7/28/00 still saw another 10.5% decline. Nasdaq then embarked
on a 5-week winning streak that took the average back to 4234
on 9/1/00. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 had also rallied back
strongly from their spring lows, in what proved to be one of the
biggest fake-out moves of all time. After 9/1/00, Nasdaq
proceeded to decline 15 of the next 18 weeks and was at 2407 on
1/5/01, on its way to 1139 by 10/4/02.

Next week some thoughts on the farm economy, as Im in Iowa.

Brian Trumbore