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10/24/2008

The 2008 Crash

The action in the markets the past few weeks has certainly been historic so I thought it was a good time to begin to recognize some of the data, to be preserved for posterity. Of course in another few weeks I’ll probably have to update this. 

Volatility 

Dow Jones Industrial Average 

Sept. / Oct. 2008…the swoon
 
9/26….11143
 
9/29….10365…-778
9/30….10850…+485
10/1….10831…..-19
10/2….10482…-349
10/3….10325…-157
 
10/6…..9955….-370
10/7…..9447….-508
10/8…..9258….-189
10/9…..8579….-679
10/10…8451….-128
 
10/13…9387….+936
10/14…9310…..-77
10/15…8577….-733
10/16…8979….+402
10/17…8852….-127 

The Lost Decade…1998-2008 

S&P 500
 
10/9/98……984.39
10/16/98…1056.42
12/31/98…1229.23 

10/9/02……776.76 [market low]
10/9/07…...1565.15 [all-time high] 

10/9/08……909.92
10/10/08…..899.22
10/17/08…..940.55 

The Dow, Nikkei, and FTSE 

[Thanks to my extensive archives, I’ve picked out some key market dates. 1990 was the short, sharp bear market surrounding the time of Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait, 8/2/90; 1/14/00 was the all-time peak in the Dow Jones at the time; 10/11/02 was the week of major market lows; the week ending 10/12/07 was one in which the Dow hit its all-time high of 14164; and 10/10/08 was another marking the lows, at least for now, in the vicious bear market of 10/07-10/08.] 

7/13/90….2980 (Dow)…32644 (Nikkei)…2382 (FTSE)
10/12/90...2398…………22390…………..2100
 
1/14/00…11722………...18956…………..6658
 
10/11/02…7850…………8529…………...3938
 
10/12/07...14093………..17331…………..6730
 
10/10/08….8451…………8694…………..3932 

*Who would have thought the Dow and Nikkei would cross one day back in July 1990? 

The Carnage, year-to-date, 12/31/07-10/10/08 

Dow Jones Global Indexes 

U.S. -38.6%

Euro Zone -50.2%
Nordic Region -52.6%
Pacific Region (ex Japan) -51.0%
World (ex U.S.) -46.7%
Tokyo Nikkei -45.9%
 
Some key equity mutual funds 

American Funds / Washington Mutual -34.6%

American Funds / Europacific -41.9%
CGM Focus -42.8%
Davis New York Venture -39.2%
Fidelity Magellan -48.0%
Third Avenue Value -46.4%
Vanguard 500 -37.7%
 
Lipper Indexes
 
Large-Cap Growth -39.6%
Large-Cap Value -38.9%
Small-Cap Growth -39.6%
Small-Cap Value -30.6%
 
Seasonality 

Ah yes, “Sell in May and go away”…until November, that is. The best six months strategy, 11/1-4/30, has certainly worked out over the years. First discovered by Yale Hirsch of Stock Trader’s Almanac fame, $10,000 invested May 1-Oct 31 would have given you a whopping $10,341 between 1950 and 2006 as measured by the Dow Jones, while the same $10,000 would have grown to $588,413 if you were only invested between Nov 1-Apr 30. [The past year, though, both periods will end up down.] 

And just a reminder, the reason why the above has played out as it has is because Nov., Dec., Jan., Mar., and Apr. are the five best months of the year over the same 1950-2006 (Apr. 2007) period. 

Lastly, many an October has marked a major low, including 1987, 1990, 2002, and, possibly, 2008. 

I’m traveling next week. Wall Street History will be back Nov. 7.
 
Brian Trumbore
 



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Wall Street History

10/24/2008

The 2008 Crash

The action in the markets the past few weeks has certainly been historic so I thought it was a good time to begin to recognize some of the data, to be preserved for posterity. Of course in another few weeks I’ll probably have to update this. 

Volatility 

Dow Jones Industrial Average 

Sept. / Oct. 2008…the swoon
 
9/26….11143
 
9/29….10365…-778
9/30….10850…+485
10/1….10831…..-19
10/2….10482…-349
10/3….10325…-157
 
10/6…..9955….-370
10/7…..9447….-508
10/8…..9258….-189
10/9…..8579….-679
10/10…8451….-128
 
10/13…9387….+936
10/14…9310…..-77
10/15…8577….-733
10/16…8979….+402
10/17…8852….-127 

The Lost Decade…1998-2008 

S&P 500
 
10/9/98……984.39
10/16/98…1056.42
12/31/98…1229.23 

10/9/02……776.76 [market low]
10/9/07…...1565.15 [all-time high] 

10/9/08……909.92
10/10/08…..899.22
10/17/08…..940.55 

The Dow, Nikkei, and FTSE 

[Thanks to my extensive archives, I’ve picked out some key market dates. 1990 was the short, sharp bear market surrounding the time of Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait, 8/2/90; 1/14/00 was the all-time peak in the Dow Jones at the time; 10/11/02 was the week of major market lows; the week ending 10/12/07 was one in which the Dow hit its all-time high of 14164; and 10/10/08 was another marking the lows, at least for now, in the vicious bear market of 10/07-10/08.] 

7/13/90….2980 (Dow)…32644 (Nikkei)…2382 (FTSE)
10/12/90...2398…………22390…………..2100
 
1/14/00…11722………...18956…………..6658
 
10/11/02…7850…………8529…………...3938
 
10/12/07...14093………..17331…………..6730
 
10/10/08….8451…………8694…………..3932 

*Who would have thought the Dow and Nikkei would cross one day back in July 1990? 

The Carnage, year-to-date, 12/31/07-10/10/08 

Dow Jones Global Indexes 

U.S. -38.6%

Euro Zone -50.2%
Nordic Region -52.6%
Pacific Region (ex Japan) -51.0%
World (ex U.S.) -46.7%
Tokyo Nikkei -45.9%
 
Some key equity mutual funds 

American Funds / Washington Mutual -34.6%

American Funds / Europacific -41.9%
CGM Focus -42.8%
Davis New York Venture -39.2%
Fidelity Magellan -48.0%
Third Avenue Value -46.4%
Vanguard 500 -37.7%
 
Lipper Indexes
 
Large-Cap Growth -39.6%
Large-Cap Value -38.9%
Small-Cap Growth -39.6%
Small-Cap Value -30.6%
 
Seasonality 

Ah yes, “Sell in May and go away”…until November, that is. The best six months strategy, 11/1-4/30, has certainly worked out over the years. First discovered by Yale Hirsch of Stock Trader’s Almanac fame, $10,000 invested May 1-Oct 31 would have given you a whopping $10,341 between 1950 and 2006 as measured by the Dow Jones, while the same $10,000 would have grown to $588,413 if you were only invested between Nov 1-Apr 30. [The past year, though, both periods will end up down.] 

And just a reminder, the reason why the above has played out as it has is because Nov., Dec., Jan., Mar., and Apr. are the five best months of the year over the same 1950-2006 (Apr. 2007) period. 

Lastly, many an October has marked a major low, including 1987, 1990, 2002, and, possibly, 2008. 

I’m traveling next week. Wall Street History will be back Nov. 7.
 
Brian Trumbore