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Time for my quarterly update of the housing situation in the United States, using the single-best barometer of all, existing home prices as published each month by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Other measures, such as the S&P/Case-Shiller index, are good but they don’t have the database the NAR does.
This go ‘round we look at the second quarter of the year, always the peak for home prices. Specifically, prices peak in the month of June and then meander down the rest of the year, bottoming in January and February. So as we have no doubt bottomed after the popping of the bubble and are now in recovery mode after a full three years in the doldrums, going back to April 2009, the question is just how strong will the recovery be? The global economy, specifically the crisis in Europe and the issue of China’s slowdown will have a lot to say with our own economic performance and thus the housing sector.
Jun. …$189,400 (preliminary)
Using the NAR’s data, the median average for a full year was as follows.
*Existing home prices peaked in July 2006 at $230,200… according to NAR. You can play around with the numbers any way you want but generally you’re talking of a ‘formal’ decline of 30%, peak to trough. That’s the national figure. Of course the damage elsewhere was far worse.
Wall Street History will return in two weeks.