Week in Review

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Week in Review

10/03/2020

For the week 9/28-10/2

[Posted 10:15 PM ET, Friday]

Note: StocksandNews has significant ongoing costs and your support is greatly appreciated.  Please click on the gofundme link or send a check to PO Box 990, New Providence, NJ  07974.

***With the crush of news this week, in my attempt to put it all into some semblance of order, a lot was left on the cutting-room floor…some of it to be used next week, if we get just six hours off somewhere along the line.***

Edition 1,120

We received our October surprise early today…maybe the first of many.

We learned as a nation around 8:00 p.m. Thursday that presidential aide Hope Hicks had tested positive for coronavirus and was exhibiting symptoms.

Hicks, 31, traveled with the president on Air Force One to the first presidential debate on Tuesday, with some of Trump’s family members who attended not wearing masks, and then traveled with him to Minnesota on Wednesday for a fundraiser and rally, after which it is reported she began to feel slight symptoms on the plane trip home to D.C.

The president knew of Hicks’ diagnosis Thursday morning and on Thursday afternoon still went to his club in Bedminster, N.J., for a fundraiser.  Just incredibly reckless, jeopardizing the health of his donors and all the workers there, let alone Secret Service, Air Force One pilots and crew.

I watched the president later being interviewed on Sean Hannity’s Fox News show Thursday night around 9:45 p.m. and I thought he sounded ‘stuffy,’ like with a head cold.  He told Sean he and the First Lady were being tested and he expected the results soon after.

Shortly thereafter, President Trump tweeted:

“Hope Hicks, who has been working so hard without even taking a small break, has just tested positive for Covid 19. Terrible!  The First Lady and I are waiting for our test results.  In the meantime, we will begin our quarantine process!”

Around 1:00 a.m. last night, President Trump tweeted again:

“Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19.  We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER!”

The president’s stunning announcement comes just over a month before the presidential election.  He is at high risk for the virus not just because of his age, 74, but because he is obese.

China immediately weighed in with glee.

Hu Xijin, Editor in Chief of China’s Global Times, tweeted:

“President Trump and the first lady have paid the price for his gamble to play down the Covid-19. The news shows the severity of the US’ pandemic situation.  It will impose a negative impact on the image of Trump and the US and may also negatively affect his reelection.”

China Daily:

“The positive test is yet another reminder that the coronavirus continues to spread, even as Trump has tried desperately to suggest it no longer poses a danger. Since it emerged earlier this year, Trump, the White House and his campaign have played down the threat and refused to abide by basic public health guidelines – including those issued by his own administration – such as wearing masks in public and practicing social distancing. Instead, Trump has continued to hold campaign rallies that draw thousands of supporters. The virus has killed more than 200,000 Americans and infected more than 7 million nationwide.”

Peggy Noonan / Wall Street Journal

“You know what’s about to take on heightened importance? The vice-presidential debate next Wednesday.  America doesn’t really know Sen. Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee. It doesn’t really know Vice President Mike Pence, either.  It’s a freakish year: The president is sick, and Mr. Biden, who turns 78 next month, would be the oldest president ever.  Voters are going to want to know Ms. Harris and Mr. Pence a lot better.  They’re going to look at that debate in a whole new way.”

For his part, Joe Biden took the high road in remarks today in Grand Rapids, Mich., having tested negative (along with wife Jill) and allowed to hit the campaign trail.  His staff had not been notified of Hope Hicks’ positive test after she had been in Cleveland.

But not only does the announcement the president was ‘positive’ for Covid and now clearly ill, receiving care at Walter Reed Medical Center, have seismic implications for the remaining weeks of the campaign; it impacts his messaging on the pandemic.

“Rounding the corner on the virus” as the president has been saying for weeks?  I don’t think so.  [We had 51,000 new cases nationwide today!]

During the debate, Trump said, “I have a mask right here.  I put the mask on…you know (when) I think I need it…I don’t wear masks like him.  Every time you see him, he’s got a mask.  He could be speaking 200 feet away from me, and he shows up with the biggest mask I’ve ever seen.”

What an amazing jerk we have for president. A reckless asshole without any regard for the health and safety of his fellow Americans. An attitude so arrogant, and prevalent among his followers, including his family, that they couldn’t even follow Cleveland Clinic guidelines in the debate hall and wear a mask when requested.

So much for the measures recommended by the CDC and other agencies within the administration promoting their guidance to keep people safe, not for political purposes.

Will Trump now blame the Chinese?  How quickly will he resume his campaign activities, assuming he is in Walter Reed for only a day or two, and then rests at the White House another few days after? Will he draw the same crowds?

And then when it comes to the election itself, President Trump chose the debate stage to continue his destructive message of delegitimizing the vote.  The president renewed his assault on election integrity.  He is flat-out threatening violence after the vote if he isn’t returned to office; laying the predicate for the post-election chaos.

America’s adversaries are licking their chops.  As Bob Woodward muses, on Nov. 3rd, “will we have a functioning democracy?”

How do we deal with a president who continues to proclaim that “the only way they can win is to cheat on the ballot”?

Well, the solution is easy.  Senate Republicans need to find their spine.  The odds of that, however, are nil.

Don’t look for the president when he’s back in the White House and feeling better to change his tone down the stretch.  In the meantime, the world has every right to just laugh at us.  America as that shining city upon a hill?  Really?  All I see tonight is a Rabelaisian pile of shit.

Thomas L. Friedman / New York Times

“President Trump has made it unmistakably clear in recent weeks – and even more crystal clear at the Tuesday debate – that there are only two choices before voters on Nov. 3 – and electing Joe Biden is not one of them.

“The president has told un in innumerable ways that either he will be re-elected or he will delegitimize the vote by claiming that all mail-in ballots – a time-honored tradition that has ushered Republicans and Democrats into office and has been used by Trump himself – are invalid.

“Trump’s motive could not be more transparent. If he does not win the Electoral College, he’ll muddy the results to that the outcome can be decided only by the Supreme Court or the House of Representatives (where each state delegation gets one vote).  Trump has advantages in both right now, which he has boasted about for the past week.

“I can’t say this any more clearly: Our democracy is in terrible danger – more danger than it has been since the Civil War, more danger than after Pearl Harbor, more danger than during the Cuban missile crisis and more danger than during Watergate….

“I worry because Facebook and Twitter have become giant engines for destroying the two pillars of our democracy – truth and trust.  Yes, these social networks have given voice to the voiceless.  That is a good thing and it can really enhance transparency.  But they have also become huge, unedited cesspools of conspiracy theories that are circulated and believed by a shocking – and growing – number of people.

“These social networks are destroying our nation’s cognitive immunity – its ability to sort truth from falsehood.

“Without shared facts on which to make decisions, there can be no solutions to our biggest challenges. And without a modicum of trust that both sides want to preserve and enhance the common good, it is impossible to accomplish anything big….

“You cannot sustain a healthy democracy under such conditions.

“And that is why the only choice in this election is Joe Biden.  The Democrats are not blameless when it comes to playing politics, but there is no equivalence to the Republicans.  The Democratic Party sorted through all the choices, and, led by older Black men and women in South Carolina, rejected the Democratic socialist candidate and said they wanted a moderate unifier named Joe Biden.

“The Republicans – who in the past voted for Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, sane conservatives who could be counted upon to uphold the common good – have done no such equivalent thing. They have fallen in line lock step behind a man who is the most dishonest, dangerous, meanspirited, divisive and corrupt person to ever occupy the Oval Office. And they know it.  Four more years of Trump’s divide and rule will destroy our institutions and rip the country apart.”

In Texas, Republican Governor Gregg Abbott suddenly announced on Thursday that he was going to limit the number of “drop-off” locations for ballots to just one per county.  An outrageous move.

Abbott said the decision was made to prevent election fraud, but local officials, such as in critical (and Democratic) Harris County, encompassing the greater Houston area, decried the move.

Chris Hollins, the clerk of Harris County, said: “Multiple drop-off locations have been advertised for weeks.  To force hundreds of thousands of seniors and voters with disabilities to use a single drop-off location…is prejudicial and dangerous.”

The chairman of the Texas Democratic Party, Gilberto Hinojosa, lambasted the move to limit drop-off ballots.

“Republicans are on the verge of losing, so Governor Abbott is trying to adjust the rules last minute,” he said in a statement.

The Debate

Evan Halper, Eli Stokols, Brittny Mejia / Los Angeles Times

“Shouting, insults and misinformation dominated the first presidential debate, as President Trump sought Tuesday to close a persistent polling gap and mobilize his base with conspiracy theories that veered into encouragement for a far-right hate group and pro-Trump ‘poll watchers’ engaging in voter intimidation.

“Trump repeatedly pushed the event into an incoherent volley. Front-runner Joe Biden, whose main goal was to reassure voters that the incumbent’s caricature of him as frail and incompetent was without merit, angrily pushed back as the president tried to bait and taunt him.

“Neither man emerged from the night unscathed, and Biden lashed out at the president several times, saying, ‘Will you shut up, man?’ at one point and calling him ‘a clown.’

“The cringe-worthy 90 minutes of yelling and finger-pointing hardly seemed to change the contours of the acrimonious race for the White House.  If anything, it dispirited voters, which at some points seemed to be Trump’s goal.

“The president again amplified his unfounded warnings that mail-in voting is a cauldron of fraud, even as tens of millions of Americans who will rely on the mail to vote in the pandemic start receiving their ballots.  He mocked his rival for following the advice of public health officials and wearing a mask at public events.  Trump renewed his attacks on Biden’s family.  Trump chafed when asked to condemn white supremacists….

“He urged the far-right hate group Proud Boys to ‘stand back, and stand by,’ raising fears that the little-known neo-fascist group would turn to violence during the election. Trump instead insisted the threat is not ‘a right-wing problem, this is a left-wing problem.’

“Almost immediately, the group took the president’s comment as a validation, posting ‘Stand Back.  Stand By,’ as a rallying cry above its crest, celebrating the comments on Twitter and in online message rooms.”

Wednesday, Trump said he meant the group should “stand down” and allow police to regulate leftist protesters.

Thursday, in an interview with Sean Hannity, Trump said he condemned the Proud Boys.

“I condemn the KKK, I condemn all white supremacists, I condemn the Proud Boys.  If I say it 100 times it won’t be enough because it’s fake news,” he said.

Michael Goodwin / New York Post

“A hot mess does not make for a great debate.  Or an interesting one or even an entertaining one.

“America was mistreated Tuesday. A highly anticipated showdown in a closely fought presidential election in a deeply divided country had the potential to be a clarifying moment.

“Instead, it was a sweaty, formless flop. Worse, it was annoying.  Neither the candidates or moderator Chris Wallace acquitted themselves well.

“Joe Biden was sharp and coherent enough, though he relied heavily on notes in front of him.  He didn’t exactly raise the bar of decorum with his name-calling, alternately labeling President Trump a clown, a liar and a racist.  Ho hum.

“Yet the bulk of the blame falls on Trump, who came with a clear plan and executed it flawlessly.  Unfortunately, it was a very bad plan.

“From the git-go, the president was determined to rattle Joe Biden by being a persistent interrupter, rarely letting the former vice president finish two consecutive sentences.  On occasion, his interjections were smart, but mostly, they made him look boorish.

“There’s nothing worse than three people talking over each other on television.  You can’t really hear anyone and it’s frustrating to try.

“Wallace repeatedly scolded Trump, reminding him that his campaign had agreed to the rules.  Not good moments for a president whose personality is a drag on his policies for many of the voters he will need to win over if he’s to get a second term.

“Frankly, I was surprised at Trump’s approach.  It was an example of all tactics and no strategy.  He interrupted even when Biden was stumbling, which had the effect of letting Biden off the hook and out of the rhetorical weeds.

“Still, the plan worked on occasion, most effectively involving Hunter Biden. Joe Biden was trying to make an emphatic point about his late son, Beau, serving in the military when Trump jumped in to demand he explain how Hunter made millions from businesses in China, Ukraine and Russia once his father became vice president.

“It’s a legitimate line of inquiry and all Joe could do was say it’s not true. But it is true. We know it.  The records are public.

“The only thing we don’t know is what Joe Biden knew and whether he approved.  He once said he never discussed with Hunter his son’s business, and we know that’s not true.

“Wallace, unfortunately, did not press the issue. The structure of the debate was off in that there was no built-in time for each man to respond to the other’s answer and attacks. That feature has become so routine at debates and its absence robbed viewers of key comparisons.

“Overall, Wallace asked generally good questions but was too reticent to ask probing follow-ups.  He was especially weak at getting Biden to talk about topics he has ducked during the campaign.

“For example, Wallace asked him about whether he supported the move by fellow Dems to expand the Supreme Court. Biden, repeating an answer he has given before, said he wasn’t going to answer, then rambled on, with Trump insisting he should, yet Wallace let Biden get away with it.

“Oddly, Biden, after saying the vacancy on the court should not be filled until after the election, stumbled when referring to Trump nominee Amy Coney Barrett.  ‘I’m not opposed to the justice, she seems like a very fine person,’ Biden said, which had to make Democrats cringe as they prepare a scorched-earth attack against her.

“And on the Green New Deal, Biden took both sides of the issue.  In response to a question and Trump’s badgering, he insisted, ‘That’s not my plan.’  But a minute later, he defended it, saying it ‘will pay for itself over time.’

“Then, when Trump pointed out the inconsistency, Biden again said he wasn’t for it….

“Those are hot buttons for the progressives Biden has had trouble corralling, and none who were watching could come away thinking he was on their side.

“Still, coming into the debate, Biden had significant leads in all national polls and more narrow leads in most swing-state polls.  My guess is that, if the debate moves the needle at all, it will give Biden a modest bounce.”

Peggy Noonan / Wall Street Journal

“Where does all this stand, days after the debate and a month before the election?  All summer, wise people were saying Joe Biden’s ahead but Donald Trump’s in the game, can’t write him off, a lot of issues (rising crime, economic fear, a poor Democratic convention) are going in his favor, this thing is dynamic.

“But things are congealing now, taking on their final shape, and isn’t it kind of obvious, especially after the debate, what’s happening?

“The polls have had Mr. Biden leading for the past 12 months, almost impervious to events. FiveThirtyEight.com’s national polling average this week has Mr. Biden up by 7.9 points, Real Clear Politics by 7.2. There are other, smaller things, dots in the emerging picture.  Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson, the former wrestling star and popular movie star who himself has been spoken of as a possible GOP contender and whose fan base can be assumed to be pro-Trump, this week made his first presidential endorsement and came out for Joe Biden. Former generals who’ve never publicly endorsed anyone – such as Stanley McChrystal, former commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, and Chuck Boyd, for seven years a prisoner of war in Vietnam – have come out for Mr. Biden.  All these endorsements look targeted to giving American men permission to go for the guy who may look weak but in the end is the stronger choice. As for what in more innocent times was called the woman’s vote, this column thinks what it thought in June: They’ll crawl over broken husbands to vote him out.

“I believe in the phenomenon of shy Trump voters, people who fear, rightly, that they’ll be looked down on if they say they’re for him, their social or professional standing damaged.  But if the polls are roughly right there wouldn’t be nearly enough to make a difference….

“What did the debate do to this picture?

“The president depressed everybody, even his own supporters, by acting like a bullying nut.  He left people anguished about the future of the country. By the time it was over people were thinking, deep down: The incumbent is an incompetent who’s out of his mind, and the challenger is a befuddled man who struggles to carry a public thought to its conclusion, and who can’t tell you what he’ll do in part because he doesn’t want to and in part because he doesn’t really know.

“After the debate I spent a long night and a full day talking to Trump foes and supporters, and all I heard was an outpouring of sadness.

“Mr. Trump has come in for most of the critical scorn – fair enough! – but Biden deserves plenty also.  He could string sentences together, but they weren’t very good sentences.  He wasn’t always coherent: ‘The 20 – the 200 mil – the 200,000 people that have died on his watch, how many of those have survived?’  He insisted on Roe v. Wade it ‘is on the ballot in the court.’  He attacked Mr. Trump for coronavirus lockdowns: ‘This is his economy he shut down’ – but when asked why he is more reluctant to reopen it he didn’t really have an answer.”

Ms. Noonan goes on and on…Biden was not good himself…

“(But) the two most terrible moments, however, belonged to Mr. Trump. Condemning white supremacy is not only morally right, which is its own unarguable imperative; it is easy, a softball a competent demagogue could have hit out of the park.  Americans disapprove of hate groups!  They hate groups based on hating a race or religion or ethnicity. Such groups are un-American. It is a scandal a president would not denounce them.

“As terrible, and ominous, was at the end.

“Mr. Wallace: ‘What are you prepared to do to reassure the American people that the next president will be the legitimate winner of this election?’

“Mr. Trump: ‘As far as the ballots are concerned, it’s a disaster.’  He spoke of mail-ballot fraud, ‘We might not know for months because these ballots are going to be all over.’  ‘It’s a rigged election.’  ‘This is not going to end well.’  He said this twice.

“Mr. Wallace: ‘Will you urge your supporters to stay calm during this extended period, not to engage in any civil unrest?’

“Mr. Trump: ‘I am urging my people…if it’s a fair election, I am 100% on board.  But if I see tens of thousands of ballots being manipulated, I can’t go along with that.’

“He wouldn’t vow to do what any president in history would do, urge calm and discourage violence.

“But Mr. Biden did.  ‘The fact is, I will accept it….And if it’s me, in fact, fine.  If it’s not me, I’ll support the outcome.’

“It was the most important thing said all night. Thank you, Mr. Vice President, for saying it.  Shame on the president for not.  What a loser.”

Reaction to the debate was immediate, with CNN’s Jake Tapper saying, “That was a hot mess inside a dumpster fire inside a train wreck.  That was the worst debate I have ever seen.  In fact, it wasn’t even a debate.  It was a disgrace and it’s primarily because of President Trump.”

“The American people lost tonight because that was horrific,” he added.

Chief political correspondent Dana Bash:

“You used some high-minded language, I’m just going to say it like it is: That was a shitshow,” Bash said to an equally shocked Tapper.

NBC’s Lester Holt called it “a low point in U.S. history.”

Chris Christie, appearing on ABC and having helped prep the president for the debate, was asked directly: Is that the debate they prepared for?

“No,” Christie responded.  “It was too hot.  You come in and decide you want to be aggressive, and I think it was the right thing to be aggressive. But that was too hot.”

Christie added when it comes to Trump, what happened was: “With all that heat…you lose the light.”

Christie also said of Biden that he did not deliver a “reassuring performance” to the American people and that he’d be “very concerned his problems can’t be fixed.”

Nick Bryant of BBC News:

“Tuesday’s vicious encounter, more cage-fight than Camelot, spoke of a different era and a different country: a split screen America, a nation of unbridgeable divides, a country beset by democratic decay.

“Two elderly men, both of them in their 70s, traded insults and barbs, with a sitting president once again trashing in primetime the norms of conventional behavior.

“If there is such a thing as a heavenly pantheon of former presidents, an Oval Office in the sky, Abe Lincoln and Jack Kennedy must have peered down like baffled ghosts.

“To many international onlookers, to a large portion of Americans as well, the debate offered a real-time rendering of U.S. decline.

“It reminded us once more of how American exceptionalism has increasingly come to be viewed as a negative construct: something associated with mass shootings, mass incarceration, racial division and political chaos….

“At a time when geopolitical soft power has assumed such importance, and where influence is intertwined with international image management, the 21st Century has produced some searing images of American self-harm.”

Covid-19 death tolls, as of tonight….

World…1,033,174
USA…213,524
Brazil…145,431
India…100,875
Mexico…78,492
UK…42,268
Italy…35,941
Peru…32,609
France…32,155
Spain…32,086
Iran…26,567
Colombia…26,397
Russia…21,077

Source: worldometers.info

U.S. daily death tolls…Sun. 276; Mon. 355; Tues. 977; Wed. 955; Thurs. 920; Fri. 868.

Week nine of my Wednesday comparison on the case and death tolls of the Euro six (Germany, France, Spain, Italy, UK and Belgium, with a combined population of 336 million) and the U.S. (population 330 million).

The first week, the U.S. had 55,148 cases and 1,319 deaths, while the Euro six had a combined 7,281 and 100.

This week, we are at 40,929 and 955 for the U.S., 37,027 cases and 359 deaths in the Euro six.

Covid Bytes

--Various nations in Europe continue to spike.  Poland has hit record case levels the last two days.  Ukraine hit another high today, as well as the Netherlands…highly worrisome stuff.  Spain, France, the UK hit highs.

Israel has been spiking, countless other nations.

In the U.S., Wisconsin, Montana, North and South Dakota have been spiking for weeks, some of this no doubt fueled by the massive Sturgis motorcycle rally this summer in South Dakota.  You just have to look at the graphs to know.

--According to a preliminary study from South Korea, nine in ten coronavirus patients reported experiencing side-effects such as fatigue, psychological after-effects and loss of smell and taste after they recovered from the disease.

In an online survey of 965 recovered Covid-19 patients, 879 people or 91.1% responded they were suffering at least one side-effect from the disease, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency reported.  Fatigue was the most common side-effect, followed by reading and difficulty in concentration.

South Korea is also conducting a separate study with some 16 medical organizations on potential complications of the disease through a detailed analysis involving CT scans on recovered patients next year.

--According to a new study by Chinese scientists, in the early days of the outbreak in Wuhan, the virus reproduction number was 7.9, meaning a new coronavirus carrier could pass the virus to eight other people.  Most previous estimates on the RO (basic reproduction number) ranged from 2 to 4 for the Covid-19 pandemic.

It’s important to note the reproduction rate varies from place to place and is not only determined by the transmission capability of the virus, but also human behavior and the environment.

--Prime Minister Boris Johnson urged the British people on Wednesday to obey rules imposed to tackle a rapidly accelerating second wave of the coronavirus outbreak, cautioning that otherwise a tougher lockdown could follow.

New cases of Covid-19 are rising by more than 7,000 per day in the UK though Johnson is facing growing opposition to lockdown measures which have wrought some of the worst economic damage in at least a century.

--Today, Madrid became the first European capital to go back to lockdown as some 4.8 million residents and nine satellite towns will be barred from leaving due to the resurgent coronavirus.  Restaurants and bars will shut earlier and slash capacity by half in Europe’s worst infection hotspot.

The new restrictions are not as strict as the previous lockdown from March, when people were barred from leaving their homes.  Travel for school, work, health or shopping is still allowed this time, while there will be a curfew for bars and restaurants of 11 p.m. instead of 1 a.m.

--German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the worst months of the pandemic were still ahead.

“Everyone is concerned that the number of infections is on the rise.  Everybody knows that the most difficult months are ahead of us.”

--A state-run nursing home for veterans in New Jersey failed to attribute nearly 40% of its likely Covid-19 deaths to the virus, according to the state’s own Department of Health.

The Menlo Park Veterans Memorial Home, in Edison, N.J., attributed 62 deaths to the new coronavirus on the website of the state’s veterans’ affairs agency. But a Department of Health spokeswoman said Wednesday that an additional 39 people probably died from the virus at the facility during a wave of infections there.

There was a problem in at least another state-run Veterans home.  The likely undercount at the two facilities was first reported by the Wall Street Journal.

Overall in New Jersey, I saw an interesting data point that speaks to the impact of Covid.

For the period March through August, the number of people who died in the state was 52,324, compared to 36,336 in 2019 and 36,899 in 2018 in the same timeframe.

Trump World

--Hearings on President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Amy Coney Barrett, are slated to begin Oct. 12 and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham are determined to stick to this schedule despite the president’s Covid issues.

But it now seems that the Rose Garden ceremony announcing her selection was a superspreader event.  We also learned today that Judge Barrett had actually had a bout with the coronavirus earlier this year, ditto her husband.

--The New York Times broke the story over the weekend that President Trump had paid just $750 per year in federal income tax in 2016 and 2017 and no income tax at all for 10 out of the previous 15 years.

In the debate, Chris Wallace pressed Trump on the report.

“Is it true you paid $750 in federal income taxes each of those two years?” Wallace asked.

“I paid millions of dollars in taxes, millions of dollars of income taxes,” Trump responded.  He also said there was nothing wrong with using provisions in tax laws to write off business expenses to try to reduce his personal tax bill.

“Like every other private person, unless they’re stupid, they go through the laws and that’s what it is,” he said.

--The Trump administration announced plans to let only 15,000 refugees resettle in the United States in the 2021 fiscal year that began on Thursday, setting another record low in the history of the modern refugee program.

The State Department said on Wednesday the ceiling reflects the administration’s prioritizing of the “safety and well-being of Americans, especially in light of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic.”

Trump, in taking a hard line toward legal and illegal immigration during his presidency has slashed refugee admissions every year since taking office.

The administration has said that refugees from war-torn regions should be resettled closer to their home countries and that the United States extends asylum to thousands of people through a separate process.

Critics have said the United States under Trump has abandoned its longstanding role as a safe haven for persecuted people and that cutting refugee admissions undermines other foreign policy goals.

--The Russian group accused of meddling in the 2016 U.S. election has posed as an independent news outlet to target right-wing social media users ahead of this year’s vote, two people familiar with an FBI probe into the activity told Reuters.  The latest operation centered around a pseudo media organization called the Newsroom for American and European Based Citizens (NAEBC), which was run by people associated with the St. Petersburg-based Internet Research Agency, the sources said.

U.S. prosecutors say the agency played a key role in Russian efforts to sway the 2016 election in favor of President Trump. Earlier this month, Facebook and Twitter exposed a fake left-wing media outlet they said was run by people connected to the organization.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he did not know anything about NAEBC or the fake left-wing news site, Peace Data.  “The Russian state does not engage in such activity,” he said.

Oh, OK, Mr. Peskov.  I believe you.

--About 73.1 million people watched Tuesday night’s presidential debate, which was 13% lower than for the first presidential debate of the 2016 election cycle, when 84 million tuned in to watch Mr. Trump square off against Hillary Clinton, according to Nielsen.

--Trump tweets:

“I won the debate big, based on compilation of polls etc.  Thank you!”

[Ed. no you didn’t.]

“Why would I allow the Debate Commission to change the rules for the second and third Debates when I easily won last time?”

“100,000 DEFECTIVE BALLOTS IN NEW YORK.  THEY WANT TO REPLACE THEM, BUT WHERE, AND WHAT HAPPENS TO, THE BALLOTS THAT WERE FIRST SENT? THEY WILL BE USED BY SOMEBODY. USA, END THIS SCAM – GO OUT AND VOTE!”

“Joe Biden just announced that he will not agree to a Drug Test.  Gee, I wonder why?”

Post Debate:

“Biden REFUSED to use the term, LAW & ORDER!  There go the Suburbs.”

“Biden wants to Pack the Supreme Court, thereby ruining it. Also, he wants no fracking, killing our Energy business, and JOBS. Second Amendment is DEAD if Biden gets in!  Is that what you want from a leader?  He will destroy our COUNTRY! VOTE NOW USA.”

“Nobody wants Sleepy Joe as a leader, including the Radical Left (which he lost last night!)  He disrespected Bernie, effectively calling him a loser!”

“Chris had a tough night. Two on one was not surprising, but fun.  Many important points made, like throwing Bernie, AOC PLUS 3, and the rest, to the wolves! Radical Left is dumping Sleepy Joe.  Zero Democrat enthusiasm, WEAK Leadership!”

On his taxes:

“The Fake News Media, just like Election time 2016, is bringing up my Taxes & all sorts of other nonsense with illegally obtained information & only bad intent.  I paid many millions of dollars in taxes but was entitled, like everyone else, to depreciation & tax credits….

“….Also, if you look at the extraordinary assets owned by me, which the Fake News hasn’t, I am extremely under leveraged – I have very little debt compared to the value of assets. Much of this information is already on file, but I have long said that I may release…

“….Financial Statements, from the time I announced I was going to run for President, showing all properties, assets and debts.  It is a very IMPRESSIVE Statement, and also shows that I am the only President on record to give up my yearly $400,000 plus Presidential Salary!”

[Ed. The so-called Financial Statements are a bunch of malarkey.]

Wall Street and the Economy

Stocks completed another super quarter, with the six-month gains the best in over ten years, as spelled out below.

On the economy, we had a slew of data this week and I’ll start with the biggie, the September jobs report, with the Labor Department saying today that nonfarm payrolls increased by 661,000, far less than expected (anywhere from 850,000 to 930,000 had been projected).  The unemployment rate fell from 8.4% in August to 7.9%, though the figure has been biased down by people misclassifying themselves as being “employed but absent from work.”  The true figure is at least 8.2%, according to the government.  U6, the underemployment rate, is 12.8%.

September’s employment gains were the smallest since the jobs recovery started in May and left the labor market still a long way from recouping the 22.2 million jobs lost in March and April, about 11 million shy.

The black unemployment rate fell to 12.1% from 13.0%, which I bring up as it is an important figure in terms of the political debate, but nearly 200,000 African-Americans dropped out of the U.S. workforce last month, and 36,000 fewer Blacks over the age of 20 were employed than in August, providing further evidence that the coronavirus recession is extracting a heavier toll on the Black community than on whites.

Prior to the pandemic, the overall unemployment rate was 3.5% and that of Blacks 5.8%.

In other economic news, the S&P CoreLogic home-value index for July (this being a lagging indicator) was 3.9% year over year for the 20-city index, 0.6% month over month.

The Chicago ISM reading on manufacturing was a stupendous 62.4 vs. an expectation of 51.5 and 51.2 prior (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction).  The national ISM manufacturing figure was 55.4, slightly below forecasts and vs. 56.0 prior, but still strong.

August personal income was down 2.7% month on month, in line, while spending rose 1.0%.

August factory orders rose 0.7%, while construction spending in the month was 1.4%.

Weekly jobless claims came in at a still sickly 837,000 vs. 873,000 prior.

And our final look at second-quarter GDP was -31.4% annualized.

But this last one is the look through the rearview window and now third-quarter growth estimates are topping 32% (the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer at a whopping 34.6%), which the president will be trumpeting Oct. 29 and in the final days before the election, while estimates for the fourth quarter have been coming down rapidly to around a 2.5% rate from above 10% at one point. With a surge in coronavirus cases expected in the fall, there could be some renewed restrictions imposed on businesses, particularly in the service sector. See Walt Disney below and the airlines.

The president is going to get a break in that the October jobs report, which could be rather ugly, comes out after the vote.

New York Fed President John Williams commented this week, “We want to get back to maximum employment as soon as possible,” adding that the economy would be strong and close to full employment “in about three years’ time.”  Still, he added, “there’s clearly a lot of unknowns” about the next few years.

Europe and Asia

After last week’s flash report on eurozone (EA19) manufacturing in September, we had the final figures this week, courtesy of IHS Markit, with the final PMI at 53.7 vs. Aug. 51.7. Overall manufacturing growth is the strongest in over two years.

Germany 56.4
France 51.2
Italy 53.2
Spain 50.8
Netherlands 52.5
Ireland 50.0
Greece 50.0

UK 54.1

Chris Williamson / IHS Markit

“The eurozone’s manufacturing recovery gained further momentum in September, rounding off the largest quarterly rise in production since the opening months of 2018.  Order book growth and exports also accelerated, indicating a welcome strengthening of demand.  Job losses consequently eased as firms grew more upbeat about prospects for the year ahead, with optimism returning to the highs seen before the trade war escalation in early 2018.

“The recovery would have been far more modest without Germany, however, where output has surged especially sharply to account for around half of the region’s overall expansion in September.  Germany’s performance contrasted markedly with modest production growth in Spain, slowdowns in Italy and Austria, plus a particularly worrying return to contraction in Ireland.  Excluding Germany, output growth would have weakened to the lowest since June.

“Divergent export performance explains much of the difference between national production trends, with Germany the stand-out leader in terms of growth in September, led by a strengthening of demand for investment goods such as plant and machinery.

“Encouragingly, optimism about the future rose not only in Germany but also in France, Italy, Spain and Austria, hinting that the upturn could broaden out in coming months.  Without a more broad-based recovery, the sustainability of the upturn looks at risk, with additional worries fueled by rising Covid-19 infection rates.”

Next week we get the service-sector readings and they won’t be good, I’m guessing.

We had a report from Eurostat on Euro area unemployment for August, 8.1%, up a fifth consecutive month and versus 7.5% in Aug. 2019.

Germany 4.4%, France 7.5%, Italy 9.7%, Spain 16.2%, Netherlands 4.6%, and Ireland 5.2%.

Separately, a flash reading on September inflation for the euro area came in at -0.3% annualized, 0.4% ex-food and energy, which compares to 1.2% on core a year earlier.

Brexit: I wrote back in 2016 that Brexit was one huge lie, perpetrated by Boris Johnson and Co., involving Britain’s share of the EU budget and how it could be redeployed to the National Health Services (an oversimplification, but true), the numbers involved massively inflated, with a side issue of the European Court of Justice’s control over the UK.

Yes, Britain was paying more than its fair share of the EU budget, but this could have been renegotiated, ditto some of the perceived excesses of the ECJ.

But a very slim majority of the British people, 52%, fell for the lies and voted to Leave; 48% desired to Remain in the EU.

So here we are, over four years later, and the UK is preparing to leave the EU without a trade deal.  The European Union in turn has launched a legal case against the UK for undercutting their earlier divorce accord and a senior UK minister said differences remained in talks on a post-Brexit trade agreement.

Controversy over the UK’s new Internal Market Bill has thrown the tortuous Brexit process into a fresh crisis while disagreements over corporate subsidies, fisheries and ways to solve disputes are overshadowing parallel trade negotiations.

“We had invited our British friends to remove the problematic parts of their draft Internal Market Bill by the end of September,” the head of the EU’s executive Commission, Ursula von der Leyen said.  “The deadline lapsed yesterday.”

London now has a month to reply to the Commission’s formal letter of complaint and even more time to change tack before the Brussels-based executive can sue at the bloc’s top court.  That could take years.

EU leaders are holding a two-day meeting in Brussels to assess progress in the negotiations over the new trade agreement, with another summit to follow (Oct. 15-16), but going back to the spring, an agreement in principle was to have been agreed to by now, based on the original divorce deal negotiated between former Prime Minister Theresa May and her Euro counterparts, only now the Brits are looking to change the rules and there is little time before year end.

The UK says its nations cannot trade freely with each other after Brexit if there is no new trade deal with the EU without breaking the divorce deal provisions on the sensitive Irish border.  The EU is adamant, however, that it would not implement any new UK deal as long as London undermines the divorce treaty.

And there’s the state aid (subsidies) issue, with the EU insisting on a level playing field.

Today, Britain said it still believes that there will be a resolution by the middle of October.  Boris Johnson is talking to Ursula von der Leyen on Saturday to discuss next steps, according to a Johnson spokesman.

The UK said it sees mid-October as a critical deadline because “we need to give businesses the time they need to prepare for the end of the transition period,” the government said.

Johnson late Friday said it was up to the European Union whether the two sides reached a trade agreement, calling on Brussels to use common sense to hand Britain a similar deal to the one it did with Canada.

The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier suggested talks would continue up until the end of the month, saying “serious divergences” remained, citing again the need for a level playing field that guarantees fair competition, including on state aid.  The same issue keeps popping up. That and the little fishes.

Turning to Asia…in China, they are in the midst of “Golden Week,” a semi-annual national holiday, which technically runs from Thurs. Oct. 1 thru Wed. Oct. 7, and is particularly interesting this year in terms of the level of travel given the nation’s recovery from coronavirus, though it won’t be anywhere near prior years’ levels, and whether it nonetheless spurs new infections.

Meanwhile, the government reported out its official manufacturing PMI data for September, 51.5 vs. 51.0 in August.  The non-manufacturing/service sector reading was 55.9 vs. 55.2 the prior month.

The private Caixin manufacturing figure was 53.0 vs. 53.1, still solid growth; the service sector reading next week.

Japan’s manufacturing PMI was a still putrid 47.7, contraction, vs. 47.3 in August.

Street Bytes

--Stocks completed a second consecutive quarter of dramatic gains after the crash of mid-Feb. to mid-March, with the Dow Jones finishing up 7.6%, the S&P 500 8.5%, and Nasdaq 11% in Q3, the advances capping the best two-quarter performance since 2009.  Both the Dow and S&P are up more than 26% since the end of March, and Nasdaq a spectacular 45% over the past six months, its biggest two-quarter gain since 2000.

For the week, stocks broke their four-week skid, the Dow Jones up 1.9% to 27682, the S&P and Nasdaq up 1.5% each.

And now it’s earnings season!  Oh joy, typed the editor, sarcastically.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 0.10%  2-yr. 0.13%  10-yr. 0.70%  30-yr. 1.49%

Yields on the long end of the curve rose moderately and remain in a weekslong narrow range.

--Oil prices fell anew on rising coronavirus cases dampening the demand outlook, ending the week at $37 on West Texas Intermediate, with further price pressure from a rise in OPEC output last month, though losses were capped by renewed hopes for U.S. fiscal stimulus.

Output from OPEC countries rose to 18.2 million barrels per day in September from 17.53 million in August.

--Royal Dutch Shell announced on Wednesday it plans to cut up to 9,000 jobs, or over 10% of its workforce, as part of a major overhaul to shift the oil and gas giant to low-carbon energy.

Shell, which had 83,000 employees at the end of 2019, said that the reorganization will lead to additional annual savings of around $2 billion to $2.5 billion by 2022, beyond cost cuts of $3 billion to $4bn announced earlier this year.

In an operations update, Shell aid its oil and gas production was set to drop sharply in the third quarter to around 3.05 million barrels of oil, due in part to both the pandemic and hurricanes that forced offshore platforms to shut down.

--I’ve been writing about the day, Oct. 1st, for months and months and it came.  Without a new government program extending payroll support for U.S. airlines, they were forced to begin massive layoffs. 

American furloughed 19,000, while United is laying off about 13,000.

Part of the negotiations for a new economic relief bill backed by Democrats was $25 billion in payroll aid for airlines having to deal with an unprecedented collapse in travel demand.

“I am extremely sorry we have reached this outcome,” American Airlines CEO Doug Parker said in a letter to employees.  “It is not what you all deserve.”

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had urged the airlines to hold off on layoffs, and United said it made clear to the Trump administration, Congress and labor unions that it “can and will reverse the furlough process” if additional aid is extended.

The layoffs add to job losses that already total 150,000 at the nation’s four largest carriers (the others being Delta and Southwest) who have left voluntarily or taken temporary leave.

But even with reduced expenses, the industry continues to burn through $billions monthly.

Delta Air Lines previously announced it will avoid most layoffs until at least next summer after 17,000 workers left voluntarily and 40,000 took unpaid leaves.   Southwest Airlines said it won’t lay off workers through the end of 2020 after 28% of its workforce agreed to leave permanently or temporarily.

Here’s the thing.  The TSA checkpoint figures remain putrid, and worse than the airlines anticipated back in, say, May.  We are stuck in the 30% to 35% range for traffic vs. 2019 levels.  I think most folks were hoping for nearly 50% by now, not expecting a return to normal until end of 2022 or later, even with vaccines.

And think about the airports…and all the businesses and employees attached thereto.  Plus service to smaller communities will fall severely with its own negative impacts on the local economies. 

As for higher-margin business and international travel, that just isn’t coming back anytime soon.

--Regarding the above…the International Air Transport Association (IATA) downgraded its 2020 traffic forecasts, after “a dismal end to the summer travel season.”

The association, which represents 290 airlines, says it expects traffic to be 66% below the level it was in 2019.

The IATA estimates that it will be at least 2024 before air traffic reaches pre-pandemic levels.  The second surge in Europe, parts of the U.S., and elsewhere, has been a killer.

“Absent additional government relief measures and a reopening of borders, hundreds of thousands of airline jobs will disappear,” IATA chief executive Alexandre de Juniac said.

--Boeing Co. got a tentative personal endorsement for fixes to the beleaguered 737 MAX from the head of the Federal Aviation Administration, Steve Dickson, a former Air Force aviator and senior airline pilot who took one of the jets on a test flight.

“I like what I saw on the flight this morning,” Dickson said Wednesday, taking the controls for a two-hour flight over the Pacific Northwest, accompanied by a handful of pilots who work for Boeing and the FAA.

“I felt very comfortable. I felt very prepared based on the training,” Dickson told reporters after, referring to Boeing’s proposed ground-simulator training sessions for pilots that would get the MAX back in the air.  “We’re in the homestretch, but it doesn’t mean we’re going to take shortcuts.”

The test flight is one of the last steps intended to allay passengers’ concerns about the MAX’s safety before the FAA is expected to clear the aircraft to resume commercial operations.

Separately, Boeing will be consolidating 787 Dreamliner assembly in South Carolina, ending production of the jetliner in Washington state as the pandemic saps demand for aircraft.

The decision carries significant implications for the Seattle-area economy and Boeing’s unionized workforce around Puget Sound.  The consolidation will take place in 2021.

Earlier this year, Boeing said it would slash production of passenger jets and cuts its workforce by about 10%, though it is weighing further cuts beyond the 19,000 already earmarked.

As for South Carolina, Boeing secured a line assembly in North Charleston back in 2009, with a main attraction being S.C. is a right-to-work state where attempts to unionize the workforce haven’t succeeded.

Earlier this year, the South Carolina plant was investigated for quality-control lapses.

Boeing employs more than 7,000 workers in North Charleston, compared with almost 70,000 staff in Washington, including around 30,000 at the Everett plant, where it produces 767s and 747s, though the 747 program is due to end in 2022, and output of the new 777X reduced as Boeing delayed first deliveries until 2022.

--The U.S. auto industry’s recovery gathered momentum in the third quarter, with sales at automakers rebounding from pandemic-related lows and buyers returning to showrooms.  Sales of trucks and SUVs is driving the comeback, which has been faster than analysts expected.

Sales are still down year on year, but September’s pace has been close to last year’s level.

General Motors said Thursday its third-quarter U.S. sales fell nearly 10% from a year earlier, but this decline was far narrower than the 34% fall in the second quarter, when North American factories were idled.

Fiat Chrysler reported a 10% drop in Q3 U.S. sales vs. the 39% decline of Q2.

Ford said its sales for the September quarter fell 4.9%.  SUVs and trucks were only down 0.7%.  The company said its best-selling F-Series trucks saw sales surge 17.2% in September.

Toyota Motor said its third-quarter U.S. sales were down nearly 11% over a year earlier, but it posted a 16% gain in September.

Honda Motor Co.’s sales fell 9.5% in Q3, but September’s rose.

Nissan Motor reported a 32% decline in third-quarter sales.

But Hyundai Motor saw its sales fall only 1% in the quarter, with September sales rising 5.4%.

--Tesla beat Wall Street estimates for third-quarter vehicle deliveries, driven by higher demand for its mass-produced Model 3 sedans.  The electric-car maker delivered 139,300 vehicles in the quarter, beating estimates of 134,720, but this wasn’t as good as some bulls hoped for. Model Y and Model 3 deliveries came in at 124,100, shy of consensus estimates.

Tesla has delivered 318,000 vehicles this year, putting the company under pressure to increase deliveries once more to nearly 182,000 in the fourth quarter to reach its ambitious year-end target of half a million deliveries.

--Walt Disney announced it will lay off 28,000 employees, mostly at its U.S. theme parks.  Disney cited the park’s limited visitor capacity and uncertainty about how long the coronavirus pandemic would last as reasons for the layoffs.

Disney shut all its parks earlier in the year as the virus spread, but only Disneyland in California remains closed.

The layoffs apply to “domestic employees” of which about 67% are part-time.

Disney’s theme parks in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Tokyo and Paris are not affected by the announcement.

Disney lost $4.7bn in the three months to June 27, with revenues at its Parks, Experiences and Products division plummeting 85% compared to the same quarter in 2019.

Josh D’Amaro, chairman of the parks unit, said the company’s problems were “exacerbated in California by the state’s unwillingness to lift restrictions that would allow Disneyland to reopen.”

--Speaking of Hong Kong, retail sales dropped 13 percent in August year on year, continuing a 19-month downward spiral.  Sales in 2020 so far are nearly a third lower than the same eight-month period last year.

--Retail store closings in the U.S. reached a record in the first half of 2020 and the year is on pace for record bankruptcies and liquidations as the pandemic accelerates industry changes, particularly the shift to online shopping.

According to a report by professional-services firm BDO USA LLP, this year’s collapse in American retail could overtake that of 2010, when 48 retailers filed for bankruptcy in the wake of the 2007-09 recession.  Through mid-August, BDO said 29 retailers have sought bankruptcy protection in 2020, surpassing the 22 such filings recorded last year.

--PepsiCo Inc. forecast full-year profit above expectations after a rebound in soda sales and increased demand for snacks during the Covid-19 crisis helped drive quarterly sales higher.

People spending more time working and studying from home has led to a rise in demand for salty snacks, boosting demand for PepsiCo’s Tostitos, Cheetos and Doritos, with sales of snacks under the Frito-Lay North America unit rising 7% in the third quarter, while higher demand for breakfast foods led to a 6% rise at its Quaker Foods business.  “At home consumption trends have remained strong despite the measured reopening of economies and activities in certain areas,” CEO Ramon Laguarta said.

The company’s decision to drop the “Aunt Jemima” branding from its pancake mix and syrups in June after being criticized as a racist stereotype did not impact product sales.

Overall net revenue rose more than 5% to $18.09 billion in the quarter ended Sept. 5, beating expectations, ditto on earnings per share.

--Allstate Corp., one of the largest home and car insurers, announced Wednesday it planned to lay off 3,800 employees in claims, sales and support roles.  The layoffs represent about 8% of the approximately 46,000 employed by the company.

Allstate CEO Thomas Wilson said about 1,000 of the job cuts were the result of pandemic-related refunds to policyholders, the refunds driven by the sharp decline in driving in the early shutdowns.  Many insurers reduced customers’ bills as claims volume fell.

Fewer accidents means fewer claims people needed, Wilson said.

--According to a piece in the Wall Street Journal:

“More than 500 JPMorgan Chase & Co. employees got assistance from taxpayers aimed at helping businesses through the pandemic – and dozens of them shouldn’t have, according to people with knowledge of the firm’s internal investigation.

“The discovery that so many people at the largest and most profitable U.S. bank had tapped the Economic Injury Disaster Loan program raised suspicions inside the company and set off a hasty probe, the full extent of which hasn’t been previously reported.  Bloomberg broke the news earlier this month that at least some staff had abused the program.

“After noticing hundreds of employees had received government funds in their accounts, the bank began scrutinizing director-level employees and workers who received certain amounts… Of almost two dozen in that first group, the bank found five – none of them director-level employees – had improperly tapped the program.”

Some of the assistance was warranted, JPM found…funds for side businesses run on workers’ own time.

Rival banks have remained silent on whether any of their employees improperly tapped the money.

--Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is planning on cutting about 400 jobs, or 1% of its workforce, most of the positions being of the back-office variety.

--Facebook said on Wednesday that it was immediately banning U.S. Facebook and Instagram ads that call voting fraud widespread, or election results invalid, or impugn any one method of voting.  The company announced the new rules in a blog post, adding to earlier restrictions on premature claims of election victory.  The move came a day after President Trump used the first televised debate to amplify his baseless claims that the election will be “rigged.”

--A federal judge blocked the Trump administration’s attempt to ban TikTok downloads in the U.S., giving the Chinese-owned app a short-term victory as it scrambles to ensure its future while caught in a battle of brinkmanship between the two superpowers.

The Sunday ruling by Judge Carl Nichols of the U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C., gives TikTok owner ByteDance Ltd. more time to get approval from U.S. and Chinese authorities for a pending deal that includes Oracle Corp. and Walmart.

So after the ruling, there was really nothing new all week, meaning I don’t have to pretend I know anything about how this is all really going to play out.

--Barron’s Daren Fonda reported on some of the business cases coming out of the Supreme Court’s next term, starting Oct. 5, where Amy Coney Barrett could play a role should she be confirmed prior to the election.  It’s not just the Affordable Care Act that is being challenged.  You also have a high-profile battle between Alphabet and Oracle over software copyright: “Oracle claims Alphabet owes it $9 billion for code that Google used in its Android operating system; Alphabet says it doesn’t owe Oracle anything, partly due to ‘fair use’ legal principles.”

Also on the docket: Facebook is defending itself over potential fines for robocalls and Ford Motor says it shouldn’t face liability for a car crash in Montana. Cargill and Nestle are co-defending claims they used child slave labor in Africa, which is about corporate liability for human rights abuses outside the U.S.

--Palantir Technologies completed its direct listing on the New York Stock Exchange Wednesday, along with Asana Inc., in a milestone for the little-tested way to go public.

But Palantir, a data-mining company, saw its debut mired by technical issues with Morgan Stanley software that prevented some existing investors in the company from unloading shares for much of the day.

The stock opened for trading at $10 a share and once it did, current and former employees of Palantir who wanted to sell some of their stake on the open market had difficulty doing so, the employees using a Morgan Stanley stock-plan business that then suffered difficulties.

Anyway, by the time the markets closed Wed., the stock was $9.50, though this was above the $7.31 and $9.17 average prices where they had changed hands in the private market most recently.

But then they finished today at $9.20.

Morgan Stanley/Shareworks indicated that employees who had to sell at a lower price because of the systems issues would be made whole.

--California’s wildfires have severely impacted the vineyards in Napa and Sonoma counties, with more than a dozen wineries suffering losses.  Vineyards in Oregon were also affected.  The owner of Castello di Amorosa told the Wall Street Journal that the warehouse of 120,000 bottles of wine was burned to the ground.

--China has been stepping up its purchases of U.S. supplies of soybean and corn, with the Department of Agriculture reporting corn supplies dropped by 3.024 billion bushels and soybean supplies fell by 858 million during the three months ended Sept. 1, the second-biggest summer drawdowns ever for both commodities, according to the USDA.  But the September report is known to be questionable as traders wait for specifics from the monthly report for supply and demand.

--According to a report released Thursday by New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, as many as half of New York City’s nearly 24,000 restaurants and bars could be forced to close permanently because of coronavirus restrictions imposed to date.

Before the pandemic, the industry employed roughly 318,000 throughout the city’s five boroughs.  In April, that figure dropped to 91,000.  And even though dining establishments were able to start offering outdoor service in the summer and were allowed to resume indoor dining – with a 25% capacity limitation – on Wednesday, these businesses remain in a precarious position, according to the report.  As of August, employment had climbed back to 174,000, but that is still only 55% of the pre-pandemic figure.

--Amazon said Thursday that nearly 20,000 of its workers have tested positive or been presumed positive for the virus that causes Covid-19.

But Amazon, revealing the data for the first time, said that the infection rate of its employees was well below that seen in the general U.S. population.

The company said in a corporate blog Thursday that it examined data from March 1 to Sept. 19 on 1.37 million workers at Amazon and Whole Foods Market across the U.S.

--Inground pool builder extraordinaire Brad K. passed on more info on the explosive growth his industry is seeing.  Time doesn’t permit me to get into all the details, but in a trade publication, manufacturers continue running at full capacity and can’t meet current demand.

The boom has also impacted hot tubs, which are selling as fast as anyone can make them.  But you have supply issues with parts and materials.

Bil (sic) Kennedy of Pkdata notes that the biggest winner in this whole surge was aboveground pools.  “Consumers were desperate for recreational water this year, and when they realized the inground builders were swamped and unable to deliver right away, they bought aboveground like never before.”

Along with the record sales and the maddening pace, 2020 will be remembered, according to Scott Webb, “as the year of great tension between enormous demand and equally enormous supply problems.  Literally millions of people seeking refuge in recreational water, many for the first time, pulling on one end.  The industry’s limited labor capacity, relatively low inventories and interrupted supply chains combined to create friction and drag on the other end.”

No one knows what 2021 holds.

--Playboy Enterprises is going to list again on the stock market, nine years after it was taken private.

The late Hugh Hefner empire is merging with another firm, Mountain Crest, in a deal that values Playboy at $381 million and includes $142m of debt.

Playboy has transformed its business model and stopped printing its famous magazine earlier this year.

It now describes itself as a consumer products company that includes sexual wellness, clothing and gaming.

Foreign Affairs

China: Taiwan said it scrambled fighter jets on Thursday evening to ward off a Chinese warplane that had entered its air defense identification zone near a group of islets administered by Taipei.

Regarding the relationship between North Korea and China, John Bolton had some of the following in an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal.

“For weeks, North Korea observers have speculated that Pyongyang was preparing an election surprise for the U.S., perhaps testing a submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missile. So far there’s been no launch, but the strange shooting death this weekend of a South Korean official who might have been looking to enter the North by boat nonetheless highlights the hair trigger on which the Peninsula still rests.

“While Donald Trump has pursued the bright lights and glitter of international ‘summits’ with Kim Jong Un, Pyongyang has relentlessly improved and expanded its nuclear and ballistic-missile capabilities. After almost four years of U.S. showmanship – but insufficient, inconsistent economic and political pressure – it is clear as Nov. 3 approaches that North Korea has again outperformed an American administration. A fourth Trump-Kim encounter might still emerge as an ‘October surprise’ to aid Mr. Trump’s flagging re-election campaign, but participating in such a circus would be an act of self-abasement for the president….

“For decades Washington has accepted Beijing’s claim that it opposes Pyongyang’s ambitions because a nuclear North Korea would destabilize the region and impede China’s economic development.  Successive American administrations accepted China as a middleman in negotiations.  When North Korea repeatedly broke its commitments to renounce nuclear weapons, China helped enforce economic sanctions.

“Those days are gone. China should no longer be treated as part of the solution on the Korean Peninsula.  Beijing is – and likely always was – part of the problem.  Rather than helping to denuclearize North Korea, Beijing has been content to let the U.S. and Japan focus on that threat as a distraction from China’s own growing menace. It’s clear now that Beijing sees a nuclear-capable Pyongyang as a ‘wild card’ useful for keeping the West off balance….

“Beijing’s economic lifeline keeps the Kim dynasty in power. China should pay a price for its acquiescence.  Additional economic sanctions aren’t enough.  It’s time to revive the Cold War concept of linkage and make North Korea an issue for negotiations across the board in Washington’s bilateral relations with Beijing. China has been employing a ‘whole of government’ approach in international affairs, and so should the U.S., raising Pyongyang’s nuclear threats along with existing issues like trade, theft of intellectual property, industrial espionage, forced technology transfer, spying, territorial claims, arms control and military expansion.  A linkage policy will require broad international support, and it won’t happen through the United Nations, where China’s Security Council veto would stop the most important measures.

“North Korea hasn’t pursued nuclear weapons in a vacuum. China knows it, and it needs to understand that the U.S. know it too.”

Russia: Opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who is recovering in Germany after being poisoned in Russia by a nerve agent, accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of being behind the attack in comments released Thursday.

Navalny, in his first interview since the attack, told Germany’s Der Spiegel magazine that in his mind, “Putin was behind the attack.” 

“I don’t have any other versions of how the crime was committed,” he said.

In an opinion poll published Friday by the independent Levada Center, one-fifth of Russians now approve of Navalny, more than twice as high as a year ago, but 50% do not.  In 2019, his approval rating was 9%, but those who disapproved of him was just 25%.  Of those who had heard about Navalny’s poisoning, 55% said they did not believe it was a deliberate act.

Vladimir Putin’s approval rating has improved to 69%, from a two-decade low of 59% in April.

Meanwhile, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told the Wall Street Journal that Russia had rejected the Trump administration’s core requirements for a new nuclear arms-control treaty, so no October surprise on this front for the White House.

Ryabkov said the administration’s demands that a future treaty cover all Russia, Chinese and U.S. warheads and include more-intrusive verification is “clearly a nonstarter for us.”

He also warned that Moscow is prepared to respond if the U.S. allows the New START treaty to lapse and moves to expand its nuclear arsenal.

“We would be ready to counter this,” he said.

New START is a nuclear arms-reduction agreement that entered into force in 2011.  [Michael R. Gordon / Wall Street Journal]

Azerbaijan and Armenia: A long-time territorial dispute between these two over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh erupted last weekend and by week’s end had evolved into the worst clashes between the two since the mid-1990s.

Nagorno-Karabakh broke away from Azerbaijan in a 1991-94 war that killed 30,000 people but is not recognized internationally as an independent republic.  The enclave is instead recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but has been run by ethnic Armenians since the war.

Turkey openly backs Muslim Azerbaijan, while Russia, which has a military base in Christian Armenia, is also friendly with Azerbaijan.

The presidents of France, Russia and the United States called on Thursday for an immediate cease fire between the two, but Turkey then said the three big powers should have no role in peace moves.

France, Russia and the U.S. are co-chairs of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Minsk Group, set up in 1992 to mediate the decades-old conflict over the mountainous enclave in the South Caucasus.

The death toll is rising, though I hesitate to give a figure.  At the very least 100.  Scores of civilians have been killed and wounded.

Two French journalists working for Le Monde newspaper were wounded by Azeri shelling on Thursday and in critical condition in a Yerevan (Armenia) hospital.

Turkish President Erdogan, in a speech to the Turkish parliament just before the three countries’ statement, said he opposed their involvement.

“Given that the USA, Russia and France have neglected this problem for nearly 30 years, it is unacceptable that they are involved in a search for a ceasefire,” the autocrat said.

Erdogan said a lasting ceasefire could be achieved only if “Armenian occupiers” withdrew from Nagorno-Karabakh. 

The comments fueled tensions and fears that the conflict could draw in Russia and Turkey.

Syrian and Libyan mercenaries have been pouring in, with Turkey’s support, according to reports, including from Russia’s foreign ministry.

Belarus: Tens of thousands protested against President Lukashenko last weekend, the seventh straight weekend where the masses demanded the resignation of the dictator, in office for 26 years.  At least 200 were detained, the interior ministry said.  Some dubbed the protest a “people’s inauguration” of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Lukashenko’s main opponent who fled into exile after the Aug. 9 election that Lukashenko’s foes say was blatantly rigged to hand him a sixth term.

Lebanon:  In a surprise, the prime minister-designate, Mustapha Adib, stepped down on Saturday after hitting a roadblock over how to make appointments in the sectarian system, striking a blow to a French initiative that aimed to haul the nation out of its deepest crisis since its 1975-1990 civil war.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who had pressed Lebanon’s fractious politicians to reach a consensus after Adib was named on Aug. 31, was not happy.

The nation’s top cleric, Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rai, leader of the Maronite church, said on Sunday the nation faced “multiple dangers” that would be hard to weather without a government.  Raid said Adib’s resignation had “disappointed citizens, especially the youth, who were betting on the start of change in the political class.”

Macron said he would not give up on an initiative to save Lebanon from collapse, but he was “ashamed” of Lebanon’s leaders and would increase pressure on them to change course. 

At a press conference on Sunday, Macron said, “The leaders did not want, clearly and resolutely, to respect the commitments made to France and the international community.  They decided to betray this commitment.”

Macron added: “I understood that the goal of Hezbollah was to make no concessions… The failure is theirs,” he said.  The French president said political leaders had chosen “to deliver Lebanon to the game of foreign powers,” destabilizing the region.  He gave Lebanon’s political class four to six weeks to implement his roadmap, and said he would commit to holding a donor conference for Lebanon in October.  He ruled out immediate sanctions.

Iraq: The U.S. expressed “outrage” for Monday’s rocket attack in Baghdad that killed five civilians, urging Iraqi authorities to take immediate action to hold the perpetrators accountable.  Three children and two women were killed when two militia rockets hit a family home, the Iraqi military said.  Authorities said Baghdad airport was the intended target.

The attack coincided with Iraqi officials and Western diplomats saying Washington has made preparations to withdraw diplomats from Iraq after warning Baghdad it could shut its embassy.

A State Department spokeswoman said, “We have made the point before that the actions of lawless Iran-backed militias remains the single biggest deterrent to stability in Iraq.”

Iraqis fear their country could become a battleground in a proxy war between the U.S. and Iran.

Kuwait: Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah died on Tuesday aged 91, plunging his country into mourning for a leader regarded by many Gulf Arabs as a savvy diplomatic operator and humanitarian champion.  The cabinet announced his brother and designated successor Crown Prince Sheikh Nawar al-Ahmad al-Sabah as the new ruler.

Sheikh Sabah had ruled the wealthy oil producer since 2006, and steered its foreign policy for more than 50 years.  He sought to balance relations with Kuwait’s bigger neighbors – forging close ties with Saudi Arabia, rebuilding links with former occupier Iraq and keeping open dialogue with Iran.  He also made fundraising for humanitarian aid in Syria a top priority.

“Today we lost a big brother and a wise and loving leader…who spared no effort for Arab unity,” Jordan’s King Abdullah said on Twitter.

Ukraine: Our thoughts and prayers go out to the families of the victim’s of the plane crash near the city of Kharkiv last weekend that claimed at least 25 lives, 18 being cadets from Kharkiv Air Force University who were on a training flight, with two others seriously injured, last I saw. It doesn’t seem the cadets were flying the plane.

Random Musings

--Presidential polling data….

Gallup: 46% approve of President Trump’s job performance, 52% disapprove; 94% of Republicans approve, 39% of independents (Sept. 14-28).  The prior splits for Aug. 31-Sept. 13 were 42/56, 92, 36.    The new data was obviously prior to the debate.
Rasmussen: 46% approve, 53% disapprove (Oct. 2), an interesting reversal of last Friday’s 52/48 split. 

--In the latest Washington Post/ABC News national poll of likely voters, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris hold a 10-point advantage over Donald Trump and Mike Pence, 54 to 44 percent. 

But when Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgensen and Green Party nominee Howie Hawkins are included, Biden’s lead is only 49% to 43%.

Trump has a lead of 55% to 42% among male likely voters, but Biden leads 65% to 34% among female likely voters.  Trump’s lead among men is roughly the same as his margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016, but Biden’s lead among women is more than twice as large as Clinton’s was then.

In the Post/ABC poll, 52% said they will vote either by mail or early, with 45% saying they plan to vote on Election Day.

--In a new Monmouth University national poll, Biden held a 50 to 44  percent lead over Trump among registered voters (50-45 among likely voters); the remainder scattered among third-party candidates, including Libertarian Jorgensen (2%) and the Green Party’s Hawkins (1%).

Independent voters are split at 43% for Trump and 41% for Biden.  The last survey had Biden leading among independents, 47-40.

Biden has also lost his advantage among voters living in swing counties – the counties where either Trump or Hillary Clinton won the vote by less than 10 points in 2016.  Voter preferences in these counties now stands at 47% Trump and 46% Biden, whereas the challenger held a 47% to 40% edge earlier this month.

On the issue of whether the Senate should consider a nominee for the Supreme Court at the very end of a president’s term, 49% said it should be put on hold until after the election, 47% said it should be at the very end of a president’s term.

Monmouth asked how many voters planned to watch the first presidential debate live on Tuesday, and 74% said they planned to watch, which fits nicely with the Nielsen figure of 73%.

--According to a Meredith College poll of likely North Carolina voters, Biden leads Trump 45.7% to 45.4%.  Trump has an edge with independent voters – 43.1% to Biden’s 39.8%.

Trump leads among white voters by 13.4 percentage points, males by 10.8 points and among rural voters by 15.6 points.

Biden has a huge lead among black voters (62.1 percentage points), women (10.5 points) and urban voters (17.5 points).

In a key U.S. Senate race, incumbent Republican Thom Tillis is trailing Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham 41.8% to 43.1%.

--In new NBC/Marist polls of key states, Biden leads Trump 52% to 44% in Michigan.  In Wisconsin, Biden leads 54% to 44%.

--A New York Times/Siena College poll released last weekend of Pennsylvania likely voters had Biden ahead 49% to 40%.

A Washington Post/ABC News survey had Biden leading Trump 54% to 45% in the Keystone State among likely voters.  It will end up being much closer.

NYT/Siena had Biden leading in Iowa, 45% to 42%.

--A Quinnipiac University poll of Georgia likely voters had Joe Biden ahead, 50% to 47%.  Trump won the state by five points in 2016.

--Just for the record…a poll released of California voters by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies found Biden at 67% and Trump 29%.  So no late whistle-stop tours for the Trumpster in this one.

--A Quinnipiac University poll has Republican incumbent Senator Lindsey Graham and Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison locked in a dead heat in the race for U.S. Senate in South Carolina, 48 to 48 percent among likely voters.  Only four percent of those polled said they might change their minds.

--Chris Wallace obviously had a tough time in moderating the first debate between President Trump and Joe Biden.  The rules no doubt to him seemed straightforward and then the president immediately broke them.  Biden then felt compelled to sometimes respond in kind.

The candidates also often veered off from the six broad themes Mr. Wallace had selected in advance: the Supreme Court, the coronavirus, race and violence in cities, the economy, each candidate’s political record and the integrity of the election.

Fox News correspondent-at-large Geraldo Rivera supported Wallace.

“First, let me defend Chris Wallace,” Rivera said.  “I mean, my God. The guy signed up to moderate a debate and he ended up trying to referee a knife fight.”

The next day, Wallace said in an interview with the Los Angeles Times that it was “a terrible missed opportunity.”

“I never dreamt that it would go off the tracks the way it did,” he said.  “I guess I didn’t realize – and there was no way you could, hindsight being 20/20 – that this was going to be the president’s strategy, not just for the beginning of the debate but the entire debate.”

But as the president gave no sign of backing off, Wallace said, he grew more alarmed.  “If I didn’t try to seize control of the debate – which I don’t know that I ever really did – then it was going to just go completely off the tracks,” he said.

Asked what he was feeling when he called the debate to a temporary halt – instructing the candidates that “the country would be better served if we allowed both people to speak with fewer interruptions” Wallace said, “The answer to that question is easy: Desperation.”

Asked directly if Mr. Trump had derailed the debate, Mr. Wallace replied, “Well, he certainly didn’t help.”

Care to elaborate? “No,” Wallace said.  “To quote the president, ‘It is what it is.’”

Speaking on Fox News Friday, though, Wallace suggested the Trump family put everyone at Tuesday’s debate at risk of catching the virus.  Wallace and fellow Fox host Bill Hemmer discussed a statement put out by the Cleveland Clinic that “the candidates themselves…had been tested and tested negative by their respective campaigns.”

“They weren’t tested by the clinic based on that statement, Chris, and to me, that sounds like an honor system,” Hemmer said.  “Well, they couldn’t be tested by the clinic,” Wallace responded, explaining how he and Hemmer had arrived early enough to be tested, but the Trump family “didn’t show up until 3, 4, 5 in the afternoon” on the day of the debate.  “Yeah, there was an honor system” when it came to the two campaigns’ people, Wallace finished.

--“Saturday Night Light” returns with host Chris Rock. Jim Carrey is debuting as Joe Biden.  No doubt given all the late news the writers are scrambling madly.

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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

God bless America.

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Gold $1905
Oil $37.05

Returns for the week 9/28-10/2

Dow Jones  +1.9%  [27682]
S&P 500  +1.5%  [3348]
S&P MidCap  +4.7%
Russell 2000  +4.4%
Nasdaq  +1.5%  [11075]

Returns for the period 1/1/20-10/2/20

Dow Jones  -3.0%
S&P 500  +3.6%
S&P MidCap  -7.8%
Russell 2000  -7.7%
Nasdaq  +23.4%

Bulls  51.5
Bears 19.4…new data for this week unavailable

Hang in there…Mask up, wash your hands.

Brian Trumbore

 

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