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12/05/2020

For the week 11/30-12/4

[Posted 10:00 p.m. ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,129

President Trump started out today with a few tweets:

“GET TOUGH REPUBLICANS!”

“RIGGED ELECTION!”

“MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

Trump is traveling to Georgia tomorrow, Saturday, to campaign for Republican Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, who face Jan. 5 runoffs that will determine control of the Senate.  Perdue is facing Democrat Jon Ossoff, and Loeffler is running against Democrat Raphael Warnock.

It is likely the president will go wildly off script to criticize GOP Gov. Brian Kemp and other Republican officials at the rally in Valdosta.  And White House officials and Trump campaign aides know he will fixate on his complaints that the election was rigged, even though Georgia has certified President-elect Joe Biden as the winner of the state’s 16 electoral votes.  No evidence of widespread voter fraud, in Georgia or elsewhere, has emerged.

It could be rather explosive.  Wednesday, attorneys Lin Wood and Sidney Powell told a crowd of Trump loyalists in Georgia not to vote for either Perdue or Loeffler.  Wood said: “Do not be fooled twice. This is Georgia. We ain’t dumb. You’re not going to vote on Jan. 5 on another machine made by China.  You’re not going to fool Georgians again.  If Kelly Loeffler wants your vote, if David Perdue wants your vote, they’ve got to earn it.”

Wood said the Georgia senators must “demand publicly, repeatedly, consistently” for Gov. Kemp to call a special legislative session to address the election.

“And if they do not do it, they have not earned your vote.  Don’t you give it to them. Why would you go back and vote in another rigged election?”

If you’re thinking this line of reasoning is rather non-sensical, you’re right.  Tuesday, Gabriel Sterling, a Republican election official in Georgia, lashed out at President Trump for failing to condemn threats of violence against people overseeing the voting system in the state.

“It has to stop,” Sterling said at a news conference.  “Mr. President, you have not condemned these actions or this language.”

He added: “This is elections. This is the backbone of democracy, and all of you who have not said a damn word are complicit in this. It’s too much.”

Sterling said the president needed to “step up,” saying, “Stop inspiring people to commit potential acts of violence. Someone is going to get hurt, someone is going to get shot, someone is going to get killed. And it’s not right.”

Wednesday, Trump ranted for 46 minutes in an astonishing video filled with baseless allegations of voter fraud and outright falsehoods in which he declared the nation’s election system “under coordinated assault and siege” and argued that it was “statistically impossible” for him to have lost to President-elect Joe Biden.

Having sworn an oath to uphold the Constitution, Trump tried to lever the power of the presidency to subvert the vote and overturn the election results.

Saying it “may be the most important speech I’ve ever made,” Trump delivered it to the camera, with no audience, as he desperately tries to reverse the outcome of his election loss after a month of failed legal challenges and as key states have certified Biden’s victory.

Trump called on the Supreme Court to “do what’s right for our country,” which he suggested entailed terminating hundreds of thousands of votes so that “I easily win in all states.”

“This election was rigged. Everybody knows it,” Trump said. He added, “Our country needs someone to say, ‘You’re right.’ …If we don’t root out the fraud, the tremendous and horrible fraud that’s taken place in our 2020 election, we don’t have a country anymore.”

This came a day after his attorney general, William Barr, who has been doing the president’s bidding throughout his tenure, said in an interview with the Associated Press that the Justice Department had found no evidence of voting fraud that could have changed the outcome of the election.

“To date, we have not seen fraud on a scale that could have affected a different outcome in the election.”

Barr last month told federal prosecutors to pursue investigations into credible allegations of election fraud, but warned them to avoid probes into “fanciful or far-fetched claims.”

President Trump was livid with Barr after, as you can imagine.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“No, Pennsylvania didn’t count more mail votes than it sent out.  No, Wisconsin didn’t have 89% turnout.  No, several states didn’t simultaneously quit counting ballots on election night. No, ballots in Arizona filled out with Sharpie markers weren’t discounted. In an election with 155 million votes, there are no doubt irregularities and maybe some fraud. But for Mr. Trump to win the Electoral College, he’d need to flip tens of thousands of votes in multiple states.

“We’re open to evidence of major fraud, but we haven’t seen claims that are credible.  Now comes Mr. Barr, who has no reason to join a coverup.  He likes his job.  He wanted Mr. Trump to win. As the election timetable closes, Mr. Trump should focus on preserving his legacy rather than diminishing it by alleging fraud he can’t prove.”

Philip Bump / Washington Post

“For all of the reporting about how Trump understands that he lost the race and is discussing a potential run in 2024, the speech released Wednesday did not convey any calculated assessment of the situation.  It was a cri de Coeur which, given the season, begs comparisons to the Festivus airing of grievances from George Costanza’s father on ‘Seinfeld’ – another older Queens man unable to gracefully accept the nature of the world around him.

“Introducing that comparison, though, risks diminishing the danger of Trump’s commentary.

“Again, there wasn’t anything new to it. It was a pastiche of so much that we’ve heard so often.  It presented no coherent case for the existence of fraud, instead substituting a volume of accusations for an abundance of proof.  Having hundreds of people make unfounded allegations isn’t proof of wrongdoing, as any review of those sheaves of affidavits collected by Trump’s campaign from various supporters makes clear.  Having one person make hundreds of unfounded allegations isn’t proof either – but Trump’s goal isn’t proving each point. It’s getting Americans to accept maybe just one or two, so that they’re receptive to his broader point: Something Must Be Done….

“In the speech, Trump made vague demands that someone – anyone – intervene.

“ ‘This election was rigged.  Everybody knows it,’ he said.  ‘I don’t mind if I lose an election, but I want to lose an election fair and square. What I don’t want to do is have it stolen from the American people.  That’s what we’re fighting for, and we have no choice but to be doing that.’

“ ‘We already have the proof.  We already have the evidence, and it’s very clear,’ he continued.  ‘Many people in the media – and even judges – so far have refused to accept it.  They know it’s true.  They know it’s there.  They know who won the election, but they refuse to say you’re right.  Our country needs somebody to say, ‘You’re right.’’

“He’s not right.  His purported evidence is nothing more than a dusting of allegations from motivated parties claiming that something unprovably wrong occurred.  The media does know who won the election: Joe Biden.  But, for whatever reason, Trump cannot bring himself to say that.

“There’s a new burbling among Trump’s supporters that follows his claims to their logical endpoint.  His former national security adviser, Michael Flynn, and his former attorney general have endorsed the idea that Trump should somehow try to step outside the boundaries of the Constitution to force some sort of re-vote supervised by the military: an overt coup to supplant Trump’s lazier attempt. Trump didn’t endorse that idea in his speech, but, given what he’s already endorsed, we shouldn’t assume the thought hasn’t crossed his mind.

“The essential question of the moment is how far Trump wants to go.  Was this his way of sulking? Was the speech a lengthy vent, an airing of grievances without peer in American history?  Or was it a sign Trump will continue to want to push the understood boundaries of what our electoral system allows?

“The second most important question is whether his enthusiastic base of supporters will recognize the difference between those two motivations.”

Republican Senator Mitt Romney (Utah) said on CNN Thursday: “If (Trump) doesn’t have evidence that could convince a court, and if he doesn’t have evidence to convince the American people of widespread voter fraud, then making these accusations is only damaging the cause of freedom and putting people’s lives at risk….(The president’s actions) strike at the very foundation of our democracy…Russia and China are laughing.”

The other week, the Washington Post’s David Ignatius pointed out that we are approaching a key date, Dec. 12, two days before the Electoral College meets, in terms of a way President Trump could disrupt the transfer of power.

That day: “Trump supporters plan to gather for a mass rally at the Lincoln Memorial. The National Park Service has already granted them a permit, according to local reports. The last such rally, touted as a ‘Million MAGA March’ on Nov. 14, drew only several thousand Trump supporters. But they were confronted by a few hundred counterprotesters, and when night fell, the anti-Trump forces ‘triggered…mayhem as they harassed Trump’s advocates,’ according to The Post.

“The Dec. 12 rally will probably draw a larger pro-Trump crowd, and if counter-protests become violent again, that could give Trump the excuse he may want to claim his opponents have staged a rebellion. The Biden team should be thinking now how to convey a firm message: Keep cool.  Don’t take the bait.

“Let’s imagine the grimmest scenario. Trump claims that violent protests are ‘insurrection, or obstruction to the laws [Ed. as an 1807 statute puts it]…and orders active-duty troops to intervene.”

Well, that’s a week off.  We’ll see what happens this coming week, starting tomorrow in Georgia.

---

Mitt Romney, in noting the president has gone AWOL on the coronavirus, called it a “Great human tragedy…in some respects unnecessary.  Unless you take this as a matter of safety and public health” people will die.  “It’s’ unacceptable.”

Covid deaths hit a new daily high in the U.S. on Thursday (and a new case count high today), leaving hospitals in some regions of the country without enough beds in intensive-care units to meet their patients’ needs.  Nationwide, more than 100,000 were hospitalized with Covid-19, including a record number of people in intensive care.

California Gov. Gavin Newsome said most of the state would face stay-at-home orders in coming days under a new mandate that would close some businesses and restrict others when hospital ICUs have less than 15% capacity.  The restrictions would last for three weeks.

“The bottom line is if we don’t act now, our hospital system will be overwhelmed,” he said.

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti issued an order for residents to stay at home, warning that the city is approaching a “devastating tipping point.”

Then today, San Francisco imposed new lockdown orders and business restrictions.  “What we’re seeing now is a spike unlike anything we’ve seen so far in the pandemic,” said Mayor London Breed.

Hospital administrators say they are racing to hire more nurses, squeezing extra beds onto floors and, in some cases, moving patients across state lines to find room for the critically ill.  In some overrun pockets of the country, these emergency measures are no longer enough, doctors and nurses say.

The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned on Wednesday that the nation is facing a devastating winter, predicting that total deaths from Covid-19 could reach “close to 450,000” by February unless a large percentage of Americans follow precautions like mask-wearing.

“The reality is, December and January and February are going to be rough times,” said Dr. Robert Redfield, the head of the CDC, in an address to the Chamber of Commerce Foundation. “I actually believe they’re going to be the most difficult times in the public health history of this nation.”

“It’s not a fait accompli,” he said.  “We’re not defenseless.  The truth is that mitigation works.  But it’s not going to work if half of us do what we need to do.  Probably not even if three-quarters do.”

In an indirect shot at President Trump and Scott Atlas, Trump’s most recently departed coronavirus adviser, Redfield said: “When you really want to get everybody on board, you’ve got to have clear, unified, reinforced messaging. The fact that we were still arguing in the summer about whether masks work was a problem.

“The time for debating whether or not masks work or not is over. We clearly have scientific evidence,” he said, pointing specifically to a CDC study in Kansas that showed areas with mask mandates saw a decline in virus transmission, while those without a mandate saw a 100 percent increase.

Late today, the CDC expanded its mask recommendation, urging “universal mask use” indoors anywhere outside your house.

We’ll see what happens after the Thanksgiving holiday, as we head into Christmas.  Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told ABC’s “This Week” last Sunday, “When you have the kind of infection that we have, it doesn’t all of a sudden turn around like that. So clearly in the next few weeks, we’re going to have the same sort of thing.  And perhaps even two or three weeks down the line…we may see a surge upon a surge.”

Yes, vaccines are coming, with FDA approval on the Pfizer and BioNTech version likely soon, Moderna’s to follow.  It is amazing that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, ditto Moderna’s, essentially took 10 months to go from concept to distribution.  But it’s going to take months and months to distribute around the country, let alone around the world, and in the interim, the looming death tolls are beyond sickening.

President-elect Joe Biden has said he will ask Americans to wear masks for his first 100 days in office to curtail the spread.  In an interview with CNN, Biden said he believed there would be a “significant reduction” in Covid cases if every American wore a face covering.  He also said he would order masks to be worn in all government buildings.

“The first day I’m inaugurated I’m going to ask the public for 100 days to mask.  Just 100 days to mask, not forever.  One hundred days.

“And I think we’ll see a significant reduction if we do that, if that occurs with vaccinations and masking to drive down the numbers considerably.”

Constitutional experts say a president has no legal authority to order Americans to wear masks, but Biden said during the interview he and Vice President Kamala Harris would set an example.

But back to the travel numbers, after a little spike over the Thanksgiving holiday, the TSA checkpoint figures are back in the dumper; 38, 34, 31 and 33 percent of 2019 levels, Monday through Thursday.  The Wednesday through Sunday numbers (11/25-11/29) were 41, 35, 42, 36, 41.

But it’s kind of interesting how we traveled this Thanksgiving vs. 2019.  If you match up the corresponding days of the week, 2020’s levels were 54, 21, 28, 37 and 52 percent of 2019.  As in last year a lot of folks flew to see Grandma for just a day or two, while many Americans this time left Wednesday and came back Sunday.  I’d be shocked if we see a similar pattern over Christmas and New Year’s.  As one friend told me who flew from Newark to Florida to visit family, she said it was the most uncomfortable travel experience of her life and she’ll never do it again.

And now we wait for the impact on case numbers.

Covid-19 death tolls, as of tonight….

World…1,524,255
USA…285,550
Brazil…175,981
India…139,736
Mexico…108,863
UK…60,617
Italy…58,852
France…54,767
Iran…49,695
Spain…46,252
Russia…42,176
Argentina…39,512
Colombia…37,467
Peru…36,195
South Africa…21,963

Source: worldometers.info

U.S. daily death tolls…Sun. 819; Mon. 1,238; Tues. 2,611; Wed. 2,831; Thurs. 2,918; Fri. 2,718.

Essentially, each day, Tuesday thru Friday, was a 9/11.

Covid Bytes

--A government advisory panel said Tuesday that healthcare workers and nursing home residents should be at the front of the line when the first vaccine shots become available.  The panel voted 13-1 to recommend that those groups get priority in the first days of any coming vaccination program, when doses are expected to be limited.  The two groups account for about 24 million people out of a U.S. population of around 330 million.

--The European Union criticized Britain’s rapid approval of Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine on Wednesday, saying its own procedure was more thorough, after Britain became the first western country to endorse a Covid shot.

The move to grant emergency authorization to the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has been seen by many as a political coup for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has led his country out of the EU and faced criticism for his handling of the pandemic. The decision was made under an ultra-fast, emergency approval process, which allowed the British drugs regulator to temporarily authorize the vaccine only ten days after it began examining data from large-scale trials.

The EU said it will decide by Dec. 29 whether to provisionally authorize the vaccine.

Johnson warned that it will be some months before the most vulnerable are protected and that the country couldn’t let down its guard.  “We must first navigate a hard winter” of restrictions to try to curb the virus until there’s enough vaccine to go around.

--Pfizer announced cuts to the number of Covid-19 vaccine doses to be distributed this year, 50 million, down from a forecast of 100 million.  The company did not lower its expected distribution of over 1 billion doses by the end of 2021.

--Moderna said its interim durability data from a Phase I study for its Covid-19 vaccine mRNA-1273 showed that neutralizing antibody levels remained high 119 days after recipients received their first dose and 90 days after their second.

Moderna said the high antibody count was consistent across all age groups, from 18 to 71 and older.  No serious adverse events were noted.

Moderna hopes to have 20 million doses available in the U.S. by the end of the year.  It also anticipates having 100 million to 125 million doses available worldwide during the first quarter of 2021, with 85 million to 100 million of those available in the U.S. and 15 million to 25 million outside of the U.S.

--CVS Health Corp. and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. are preparing to bring Covid-19 shots to long-term care facilities, but the effort will need to navigate rollout details that may vary by state, vaccines that require more than one dose and potential reluctance by staffers to get the novel shots.

CVS and Walgreens will deliver most vaccine doses for the nation’s approximately 15,600 nursing homes and 29,000 assisted-living communities.

--Italy approved new restrictions on Thursday to avoid a surge in novel coronavirus infections over Christmas and the New Year, banning midnight Mass and halting movement between towns, as the country posted its highest daily death toll of the pandemic on Thursday, 993.  Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said that from Dec. 21 to Jan. 6 movement between Italy’s 20 regions will only be allowed for work, medical reasons or emergencies.  On Christmas Day, Boxing Day and New Year’s Day, Italians cannot even leave their towns.

Italy is seeing its case numbers come down due to restrictions already in place, but the Christmas holidays threaten to cause a new spike.  It’s the same message around the world.

--Germany is extending restrictive measures designed to slow the spread until Jan. 10.

--According to a trove of newly-leaked documents obtained by CNN, China bungled its handling of the pandemic’s early days – including lowballing Covid-19 data and taking weeks to diagnose new cases.  The documents outline how health officials in Hubei, where the virus was first detected, were hampered by chronic underfunding, leading to gaps in staffing and testing equipment.

“It was clear they did make mistakes – and not just mistakes that happen when you’re dealing with a novel virus – also bureaucratic and politically-motivated errors in how they handled it,” Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, told CNN.

Chinese officials “seemed actually to minimize the impact of the epidemic at any moment in time,” including by not including the number of suspected cases in its total at first, said William Schaffner, professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University.

For example, a report from Hubei marked “internal document, please keep confidential” shows how local health officials on Feb. 10 reported 5,918 new coronavirus cases – while the publicly reported number was just 2,478, according to CNN.

“China had an image to protect internationally, and lower-ranking officials had a clear incentive to under-report – or to show their superiors that they were under-reporting – to outside eyes,” said Andrew Mertha, director of the China Studies Program at Johns Hopkins University.

--Former Presidents George W. Bush, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama have all said they would publicly take a Covid-19 vaccine once one is approved to help promote the drug’s safety, as did President-elect Biden.

Trump World

--Trump’s campaign and the Republican National Committee have raised a combined $207.5 million since Election Day, according to a statement released on Thursday.  The president and campaign have sent out just as many emails post-election as they did before, seeking to raise money to fund legal challenges over alleged irregularities and fraud.  But most of the money will be directed into the president’s PAC for his own future messaging.

--Former Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale says the president would have “won by a landslide” if he showed empathy during the pandemic.  Appearing on Fox News, Parscale, who was fired from the campaign in July and later arrested in September in a video that quickly went viral, said that Trump’s attitude toward Covid-19 is to blame for his loss.

“One, two percent possibly we lost of suburban families, right? The men and women in the suburbs.  Philly suburbs.  Atlanta suburbs.  I think that goes to one thing, and I think it was the decision on Covid to go for opening the economy versus public empathy,” Parscale said.  “And I think a young family with a young child who were scared to take them back to school wanted to see an empathetic president and an empathetic Republican Party.  And I think that – and I said this multiple times, and he chose a different path.”

“I think people were scared,” Parscale added, “And I think if he would have been publicly empathetic, he would have won by a landslide. I think he could have leaned into it instead of run away from it.”

Parscale is spot on.

--President Trump said he would veto the $740 billion National Defense Authorization Act unless it includes a measure eliminating a federal law protecting tech companies such as Facebook and Twitter.

Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act protects tech companies from liability over content posted by users and has been under attack from Trump and Republican lawmakers, who have criticized internet platforms’ content moderation decisions, accusing them of stifling conservative voices.

The Internet Association, which includes Facebook, Amazon.com, Alphabet’s Google and Twitter, blasted Trump.

“Repealing Section 230 is itself a threat to national security. The law empowers online platforms to remove harmful and dangerous content, including terrorist content and misinformation,” the group said.

--Dr. Scott Atlas resigned, saying in a letter to the president, “I worked hard with a singular focus – to save lives and help Americans through this pandemic.

“As you know, I always relied on the latest science and evidence, without any political consideration or influence.”

You can stop laughing. This guy’s reputation is in tatters.

--After Arizona Republican Gov. Doug Ducey certified his state’s election results that showed Joe Biden had defeated Donald Trump, Ducey said, “We do elections well here in Arizona.  The system is strong, and that’s why I have bragged on it so much.”

The president then ripped into Ducey for “rushing to sign” the papers certifying the result.

“We’re going to win this,” said Trump, speaking to a crowd via cellphone.  “Arizona won’t forget what Ducey just did.”

--Trump tweets:

“The ‘Republican’ Governor of Georgia, @BrianKempGA, and the Secretary of State, MUST immediately allow a signature verification match on the Presidential Election.  If that happens, we quickly and easily win the State and importantly, pave the way for a big David and Kelly WIN!”

“Rigged Election. Show signatures and envelopes. Expose the massive voter fraud in Georgia. What is Secretary of State and @BrianKempGA afraid of. They know what we’ll find!!!”

“Looks like certain Republican Senators are getting cold feet with respect to the termination of Big Tech’s Section 230, a National Security and Election Integrity MUST.  For years, all talk, no action. Termination must be put in Defense Bill!”

“Very sadly for our Nation, it looks like Senator @JimInhofe will not be putting the Section 230 termination clause into the Defense Bill.  So bad for our National Security and Election Integrity.  Last chance to ever get it done.  I will VETO!”

“@60Minutes never asked us for a comment about their ridiculous, one sided story on election security, which is an international joke.  Our 2020 Election, from poorly rated Dominion to a Country FLOODED with unaccounted for Mail-In ballots, was probably our least secure EVER!”

“We have some big things happening in our various litigations on the Election Hoax. Everybody knows it was Rigged. They know Biden didn’t get more votes from the Black community than Obama, & certainly didn’t get 80,000,000 votes.  Look what happened in Detroit, Philadelphia, plus!”

“I’m not fighting for me, I’m fighting for the 74,000,000 million people (not including the many Trump ballots that were ‘tossed’), a record for a sitting President, who voted for me!”

“ ‘Democrats suffered crushing down-ballot loss across America.’ @nytimes. This is true. All statehouses won, and in Washington we did great. So I led this great charge, and I’m the only one that lost? No, it doesn’t work that way. This was a massive fraud, a RIGGED ELECTION!”

The Biden Administration

--President-elect Joe Biden nominated a team of liberal and centrist economic advisers to serve alongside Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen, though one pick, Neera Tanden, head of the Center for American Progress, a center-left think tank, to serve as director of the Office of Management and Budget, will face fierce opposition in the Senate.  The others aren’t controversial, with three of them, Cecelia Rouse, Jared Bernstein and Wally Adeyemo having served in the Obama administration.

--Biden has tapped Vivek H. Murthy, a former U.S. surgeon general in the Obama administration, to serve in the same capacity in an expanded version,   Biden also announced that Anthony Fauci would serve as a chief medical adviser and help his administration with its coronavirus response plan.

--But now Biden has to appease the NAACP, Congressional Black Caucus and Hispanic groups with his remaining cabinet picks.  I just want Michele Flournoy at Defense.

--Biden will not remove Christopher Wray as FBI director, if he is still in the job when the president-elect takes office, the New York Times reported.  President Trump may still fire him, however.

Wall Street and the Economy

As I detail below, stocks continued to hit new records on vaccine hopes and renewed stimulus talk, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell communicating again.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said the prospect of coronavirus vaccines has boosted hopes of an end to the pandemic-wrought downturn – but the global economy faces a long and difficult winter first.

When the world’s economy does come back, China will emerge as the big winner, according to the OECD, accounting for as much as one-third of next year’s recovery, with GDP forecast to grow 8%.

The OECD sees the global economy growing by 4.2% in 2021, after contracting by the same degree this year.  In September, when it last released quarterly forecasts, it expected the economy to grow by 5% next year.

The OECD cut its forecast for growth in the U.S. in 2021 to 3.2% from 4%, while it now sees the eurozone economy rising 3.6% next year, down from an earlier estimate of 5.1%.

Meanwhile, the latest “Beige Book” from the Federal Reserve, a look at economic activity across the country, revealed “little or no growth” in four of the 12 regional districts and only modest growth in the others amidst the rapidly spreading health crisis and ongoing recession in large sectors of the economy.  Fed officials have been signaling they feared a winter slowdown following a new wave of Covid and it’s here.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday repeated his plea for Congress to provide more aid to “get us through the winter” and support businesses and households until a vaccine allows for a broader resumption of commerce. 

In keeping with the above, there are real signs the economic recovery is petering out.  Consumer spending has been slowing, fewer are going into restaurants (sit-down), and today the November employment report showed the economy added 245,000 jobs, well below consensus of 500,000-600,000, and a big drop from October’s 610,000.  What makes it worse is that the report captures data for the first two weeks in November and the huge surge in coronavirus cases and deaths has come after, ditto renewed restrictions, so no one is going to be surprised if the December or January reading is negative.

The unemployment rate did tick down to 6.7% from 6.9%, but the government says many are still misclassifying their job status and the figure is really 7.1%.  The number of long-term unemployed also jumped 385,000 to 3.9 million out of a total of 10.7 million who are jobless overall.  [The weekly jobless claims figure did come down to 712,000 after rising the two prior weeks, and the Government Accountability Office says the jobless claims figures are somewhat inflated, though how much isn’t known.]

Average hourly earnings did rise at a solid 4.4% annual rate.

In other economic news, we had the Chicago ISM reading on manufacturing for November which came in at a solid 58.2 (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction), though this is down from a prior 61.1.

The November national ISM reading for the manufacturing sector was 57.5 vs. a prior 59.3, while a reading on the service sector was in line with expectations, 55.9.

A reading on October construction spending was 1.3%, while factory orders for the month rose 1.0%.

Europe and Asia

We had the final November PMIs for the eurozone (courtesy of IHS Markit)  with the EA19 composite at 45.3, down from October’s 50.0; manufacturing 53.8 and services 41.7, the latter down sharply from 46.9 the prior month.

Germany 57.8 manufacturing, services 46.0
France 49.6 mfg., services 38.8 (down from 46.5)
Italy 51.5 mfg., 39.4 services (down from 46.7)
Spain 49.8 mfg., 39.5 services
Ireland 52.2 mfg., 45.4 services
Greece 42.3 mfg.
Netherlands 54.4 mfg.

UK 55.6 mfg., 47.6 services (better than expected).  Regarding manufacturing, there is a lot of stockpiling of raw materials ahead of Brexit.

Chris Williamson / IHS Markit

“The eurozone economy slipped back into a downturn in November as governments stepped up the fight against Covid-19, with business activity hit once again by new restrictions to fight off second waves of virus infections.

“However, this is a decline of far smaller magnitude than seen in the spring.  Unlike earlier in the year, manufacturing has so far continued to expand, buoyed in party by recovering export demand, and the service sector is also seeing a much shallower downturn than during the first lockdowns.

“The relative resilience of services in part reflects spill-over demand from the manufacturing sector for transport and other industrial support services, but also reflects the looser lockdown measures compared to those seen earlier in the year.

“The fourth quarter will nevertheless likely see the eurozone economy take another major step backwards, with especially steep downturns suffered in France, Spain and Italy.

“Encouragingly, growth expectations have lifted higher, as vaccine developments fuel optimism that life can start to return to normal in 2021. It’s anticipated that business and consumer spending will start to rise as the outlook brightens, though a high degree of caution is expected to persist for some time to come.”

Separately, October unemployment for the eurozone came in at 8.4% vs. 8.5% in September, the rate a year earlier 7.4%.  [Eurostat]

Germany 4.5%, France 8.6%, Italy 9.8%, Spain 16.2%, Ireland 7.3%, Netherlands 4.3%.

And retail trade for the EA19 was up 1.5% in October compared with September; up 4.3% from Oct. 2019.

Lastly, a flash November inflation reading came in at -0.3% annualized, 0.4% ex-food and energy.

Brexit:  The week began with both Britain and the European Union cautioning each other that time was running out for a trade deal as negotiators sparred over state aid, how to resolve future disputes and fishing in a last bid to avoid a tumultuous exit come Jan. 1.

The fishing issue is kind of funny, as in fishing alone contributed just 0.03% of British economic output in 2019, while the combination of fishing and shellfish processing makes up 0.1% of UK GDP.

But many Brexit supporters see it as a symbol of the regained sovereignty they hope leaving the EU will bring.  British Environment Secretary George Eustice said, “All we’re asking for…is there to be annual negotiations based on the science and also for there to be a move towards a fairer, more scientific sharing methodology, which is called zonal attachment, which is broadly where the fish are to be found.”

Ireland’s Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said, “Ironically…fish is a more difficult thing to get agreement on…because it is in some ways a more real issue.  You know: ‘How many fish can we catch now?’”

Well, by Thursday evening, talks had gone backwards and the expectations that the bloc’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, would be returning to London are up in the air.

Sky News reported: “Despite intense negotiations over the past 24 hours (fueled by pizza and sandwiches)… ‘talks have gone backwards a bit today.’”  It had been speculated Barnier would return to Brussels, and then head back to London to seal a deal.

The BBC said the EU introduced new elements to the talks.  “A senior (British) government source says ‘at the eleventh hour, the EU is bringing new elements into the negotiation.  A breakthrough is still possible in the next few days, but that prospect is receding.”

Today, a spokesman for Boris Johnson said talks are at a “very difficult point,” underlining that time was running out and that any agreement must respect British sovereignty.  Thursday night, Britain accused the EU of bringing new demands to the table, which the EU denied, describing the charge as spin to extract more concessions.

And then tonight we learned negotiators had called for a pause in talks, with Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen slated to hold a call on Saturday to try to break the impasse, which is supposedly over, you guessed it…fishing rights.  The French, specifically, with issues over the current shape of a potential deal and maintaining access to British waters.

Turning to Asia…China’s official manufacturing PMI was 52.1 in November vs. 51.4 in October, while non-manufacturing was a strong 56.4 vs. 56.2.

The private Caixin manufacturing figure was 54.9 vs. 53.6, the sharpest improvement since Nov. 2010 as China continues to rebound from the coronavirus-induced recession of earlier in the year.  And the service sector reading, 57.8 vs. 56.8, was the quickest rise in activity since April 2010.

Japan had a manufacturing PMI of 49.0 in November vs. 48.7 the prior month.  The service sector came in at 47.8.

October industrial production was up 3.8% over September, but down 3.2% from a year ago.  October retail sales were up 0.4% month-on-month, up 6.4% year-over-year.

Separately, the postponement of the Tokyo Games until next year cost Japanese organizers an additional $2.8 billion, the organizing committee said on Friday.  The estimated cost of the Games before they were canceled ran to as high as $25 billion, while the official figure was given as $12.6 billion.

South Korea reported its manufacturing PMI for November rose to a solid 52.9 from 51.2 in October.  A revised look at third-quarter GDP was also better than expected, up 2.1% over the second quarter, Q1 and Q2 both contracting.  Year-over-year GDP fell 1.1%.

Exports rose 16% in the third quarter after falling 16% in Q2.  In November exports rose 4% over a year ago.

Taiwan reported a manufacturing PMI in November of 56.9.

Street Bytes

--All three of the major indices closed at record highs today, with the Dow Jones up 1.0% for the week to 30218, while the S&P 500 gained 1.7% and Nasdaq 2.1%.  Nasdaq is up a whopping 38.9% for the year.

We closed out the month of November on Monday and what a month it was. The Dow Jones’ 12% gain was its best since Jan. 1987, while the S&P gained 11% and Nasdaq 12%.  Phenomenal.  Again, mostly on talk of vaccines.  The Street is totally ignoring the rising Covid case and death counts, which are impacting economic growth.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 0.09%  2-yr. 0.15%  10-yr. 0.97%  30-yr. 1.74%

The yield on the 10-year is now at its highest level since before the pandemic hit, and the Fed moved in.  Now it’s about a bet that a stimulus deal is on the way.

--Oil inventories decreased for a second consecutive week, the Energy Information Administration reported, though stockpiles remained about 7% above the five-year average for this time of year.

OPEC+ (OPEC plus Russia and others) then agreed to a modest output increase from January of 500,000 barrels per day.  The increase means OPEC+ would move to cutting production by 7.2 million bpd, or 7% of global demand from January, compared with current cuts of 7.7m bpd.

With U.S. producers boosting output for three weeks in a row with rising prices, OPEC+ couldn’t allow them to gain market share.  The price of West Texas Intermediate finished the week at $46.09, its best level since right before the pandemic crushed the energy sector.

Meanwhile, ExxonMobil Corp. is retreating from a plan to increase spending to boost its oil and gas production by 2025 and preparing the slash the book value of its assets by up to $20 billion, as the struggling company reassesses its next decade.

Exxon now plans to spend $19 billion or less next year and $20-$25 billion a year between 2022 and 2025, after previously planning to spend more than $30 billion a year in capital expenditures through 2025.

Exxon also said it would stop investing in certain natural-gas assets and telegraphed a massive write-down of between $17 billion and $20 billion to come in the fourth quarter.

Exxon is focusing its development portfolio on projects with high potential returns, including in Guyana, the U.S. Permian Basin and Brazil.  “Assets removed include certain dry gas resources in the Appalachian and Rocky Mountains, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas in the United States, and in western Canada and Argentina,” the company said.

Chevron announced Thursday that its capital and exploratory budget for 2022 to 2025 is $14bn to $16bn annually, significantly lower than its previous guidance of $19bn to $22bn.

--Cyber Monday was the biggest online shopping day in history as hunkered-down consumers increasingly turned to the web for holiday gift purchases, but it really wasn’t the bump many expected, up 15.1% over  a year ago, or $10.8 billion, according to Adobe Analytics, which tracks online purchases at the top 80 retailers.  In 2019, Cyber Monday spending rose by 19.7%.  Adobe had expected shoppers to spend as much as $12.7 billion or 35% more than in 2019.

Black Friday online sales rose 21.6%, according to Adobe, but of course you had relatively sparse crowds at the malls and shopping districts as Covid cases surged.  Preliminary data from Sensormatic Solutions showed in-store Black Friday traffic dropped by 52.1%.

Separately, a survey by the National Retail Federation found that the Thanksgiving weekend was underwhelming when accounting for both sales online and at stores.

The number of people who shopped online and in stores during the five-day period actually dropped by 3.6 million to 189.6 million, even as the amount they spent shrunk to an average of $311.75 from $361.90 a year earlier, according to the NRF.

Adobe cut its overall online estimate for the holiday season to a 30% increase, down from an earlier 33% forecast.

But a reason for the relatively lighter holiday sales pace, both in-store and online, was simply because a ton of folks have been shopping since October; retailers trying to manage the holiday crunch to avoid shipping delays.

--Boeing received a boost from budget giant Ryanair, which is placing a hefty order for up to 75 additional 737 MAX jets, throwing a commercial lifeline to the embattled planemaker after regulators lifted a 20-month ban, industry sources told Reuters.

Europe’s largest low-cost carrier has been negotiating for months with Boeing over whether to exercise an option for 75 jets, lifting its total MAX order as high as 210 aircraft, as part of a compensation deal for delays caused by the grounding.  Such a deal became possible only after both U.S. and European regulators lifted the almost two-year flight ban.

Each MAX is worth about $125 million at list prices, so a deal for 75 jets helps Boeing stem a hemorrhage in cash caused by a stockpile of 460 undelivered MAX jets outside its factories.  Discounts are generally half catalogue value, however, traders say, and no doubt Ryanair got a good deal.

Boeing continues to negotiate with Southwest and Delta.

United said it would take delivery of a MAX next week and expects to receive eight new MAX aircraft this month.

--Norwegian Air, which has filed for bankruptcy protection, reported a 95 percent collapse in passenger  numbers in November.  The airline is flying just six of its aircraft, as the pandemic has grounded the remaining 134.  CEO Jacob Schram said, “The development of vaccines is great news for the airline industry, and we look forward to welcoming more customers on board as travel restrictions are lifted.”

--Southwest Airlines said on Thursday it had issued notices to 6,828 employees warning them that they could be furloughed, amid the slump in demand.  The involuntary furloughs will happen on March 15 or April 1, unless Southwest reaches cost-saving agreements or the government enacts a satisfactory Payroll Support Program extension.

--The U.S. passenger and cargo airline industry saw total employment fall by nearly 29,000 workers through the month ending in mid-October as government restrictions on laying off workers expired.  The U.S. Transportation Department said U.S. airlines employed 673,278 workers in mid-October, which was 81,749 fewer than in March when U.S. travel demand started falling dramatically due to the pandemic.  The department said that since March, United has reduced its workforce by 32%, or 29,243 employees, while Delta eliminated 32% of its jobs, or 28,751 workers.

--Salesforce.com Inc. agreed to buy Slack Technologies Inc. for $27.7 billion in cash and stock, giving the corporate software giant a popular workplace-communications platform in one of the biggest technology deals of the year.

It is also Salesforce’s largest acquisition, as CEO Marc Benioff has taken his company from a dot-com-era upstart to a titan of cloud computing, orchestrating more than 60 acquisitions in 21 years.  The Slack deal gives Salesforce, the leader in programs for managing customer relationships, another angle of attack against Microsoft Corp., which has become a force in internet-based computing, through Microsoft’s Teams product, which offers a workplace chatroom, automation tools and videoconference hosting, is a top arrival to Slack.

“Together, Salesforce and Slack will shape the future of enterprise software and transform the way everyone works in the all-digital, work-from-anywhere world,” Benioff said in a statement.

--In a blockbuster move that marks the biggest challenge yet to Hollywood’s traditional way of doing business, Warner Bros. announced that 17 movies – its entire 2021 slate – would arrive simultaneously in theaters and on its sibling streaming service, HBO Max.

Normally studios give theaters 90 days to play films exclusively, but HBO Max subscribers will receive instant access to big-budget extravaganzas like a “Suicide Squad” sequel, “Dune” and “The Matrix 4.”  Among the others is a “Sopranos” prequel called “The Many Saints of Newark” that I can’t wait to see.

HBO Max has struggled to attract subscribers since its introduction in May for $15 a month, but the Warner move is also a comment on the future of movie theaters.   Even if a vaccine became widely available in the coming months, WarnerMedia does not believe that moviegoing in the United States will recover until at least next fall, an assessment that stands in sharp contrast with what other major movie studios and multiplex chains have signaled.

Warner’s movies will continue to have traditional theatrical releases outside of the United States, where HBO Max does not currently exist.

This story is just beginning.

--Zoom Video Communications Inc. forecast fourth-quarter revenue above expectations on Monday, as the pandemic-induced switch to work from home encouraged more users of its video conferencing service to sign up for paid subscriptions.

The company expects fourth-quarter revenue of between $806 million and $811 million, above estimates.  Revenue for the third-quarter ended Oct. 31 surged 367% to $777.2 million, beating  analysts’ average estimate of about $694 million.  Net income jumped to $198.4 million, from $2.2 million a year ago.

But the shares fell sharply simply because investors were looking for even more to legitimize the spectacular run the stock has had more a 52-week of $62 to $588! at one point.  It closed the week at $409.

--Meanwhile, Tesla shares jumped anew after Dow Jones Indices said it would add the company to the S&P 500 index all at once on Dec. 21, forcing index funds to buy about $73 billion worth of its shares.  The stock has run from $408 to $600 since the announcement was made on Nov. 16 that it was being added to the index.  Totally insane.  Thursday, Goldman Sachs raised its price target on the company to $850.

--Shares in electric-truck maker Nikola Corp. cratered about 30% after General Motors Co. said it will no longer take an equity stake in the company under a stripped-down agreement revealed Monday, a significant retrenchment from an earlier pact that fueled investor enthusiasm for both companies.

GM still intends to provide Nikola with fuel-cell technology but it has squelched plans to take an 11% stake in the Phoenix-based startup in exchange for supplying engineering work and other services.

GM also scrapped plans to build an electric pickup truck called the Badger for Nikola, a key part of September’s agreement.  That deal got delayed after a short-seller raised questions about the readiness of certain aspects of Nikola’s operation, allegations the company denied.  GM’s initial support was seen as a validation of Nikola’s business model and growth prospects.

--Kohl’s shares surged Tuesday after the department-store operator and Sephora said the beauty company, a unit of French luxury goods company LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton, would open mini stores of about 2,500 square feet that would largely be located in the front of Kohl’s stores.

“The Kohl’s and Sephora partnership will bring a transformational, elevated beauty experience to Kohl’s from the top global name in beauty,” said Kohl’s CEO Michelle Gass. 

According to the companies, Sephora at Kohl’s shops will replace the stores’ current in-store beauty departments with locations based on the proximity of existing Sephora stores, market opportunities, and insights from customers.

Sephora will also become the exclusive beauty partner on Kohl’s website.

This deal totally makes sense, never having stepped into a Sephora store, but always observing it has heavy traffic.

--Kroger Co. saw sales slow during its latest quarter despite people mostly eating at home, highlighting the mounting competition among food sellers to reach consumers during the pandemic.

Sales rose 10.9% at stores open at least 15 months vs. a year ago, which is great, but the nation’s biggest supermarket operator posted 14.6% growth in same-store sales during the prior quarter.

Other food sellers have also indicated similar trends, big sales though lower, like Walmart, whose comp sales rose 6.4% in their latest quarter compared with 9.3% the quarter prior.

Kroger also said that doing business during the pandemic is costly.  The company has spent nearly $1.3 billion on pay raises, bonuses and safety measures since March.

--3M said it is eliminating some 2,900 jobs across its global operations as part of a restructuring drive that will see the industrial conglomerate streamline its business and focus on new business trends to propel sustainable growth.

--The House unanimously approved legislation on Wednesday that threatens a trading ban of shares of Chinese companies such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. over concerns that their audits aren’t sufficiently regulated.

The Senate passed the measure in May and could quickly become law with President Trump’s signature.

The fight is over China’s resistance to allowing overseas inspections of its companies’ audits, and under the measure, Chinese companies and their auditors would have three years to comply with the inspections before a trading prohibition could take effect.

--Macau gaming revenue plunged 70.5% in November from a year ago, according to data from the Gaming Bureau.  The rate of decline was actually the smallest since February, when revenue slumped 87.8%.  The worst decline was April, -96.8%, as travel restrictions due to Covid-19 slammed the casinos.

--Brazil’s economy grew in the third quarter by the most on record as the easing of anti-coronavirus lockdown measures triggered a strong rebound in activity across most sectors, especially industry and services.  GDP rebounded 7.7% from the prior quarter, though Latin America’s largest economy shrank 3.9% from the same three-month period a year ago  The Q3 gain meant the economy overall is now the size it was in late 2016, due to a record second-quarter plunge that had shrunk the economy to its size over a decade ago, in 2009.

--S&P Global Inc. is nearing a deal to acquire IHS Markit Ltd. for about $44 billion, a landmark deal that would combine two of the largest providers of data to Wall Street.

S&P traces its roots to 1860, while IHS Markit was formed in 2016 by the merger of two smaller players that track millions of data points in financial markets, such as the PMI readings up above.

--Carnival Cruise Line said on Thursday it has cancelled select itineraries for next year, including cruise operations in February from Miami, Port Canaveral, and Galveston while moving the inaugural sailing of Mardi Gras to April 24, 2021, as it plans its resumption of operations.

Marid Gras will operate from Port Canaveral, and will be the first liquefied natural gas powered ship in the Americas.  It was built in Finland.

If you book a berth on the Mardi Gras you get beads on your pillow each night in lieu of chocolates.

--Working from home is here to stay, especially for white-collar workers, and that is doing a number on the dry-cleaning business.  I’ve seen a few close in my area, and according to the National Cleaners Association, one in six dry cleaners have closed or gone bankrupt in the U.S. already.   That’s sad.

The slump is particularly tough on Asian American entrepreneurs, as they own at least 40% of dry-cleaning businesses, according to the NCA. 

--Finally, we note the passing of Tony Hsieh, the former CEO of online shoe retailer Zappos, who died last weekend from injuries suffered in a house fire in New London, Conn. on Nov. 18.  The cause was smoke inhalation.

The Harvard graduate joined Zappos in 1999 when it was still called ShoeSite.com, and the company was sold ten years later to Amazon for $1.2 billion.  Hsieh remained as CEO until his recent retirement.

The tech visionary was well-known for his philanthropic endeavors, including playing a leading role in the revitalization of downtown Las Vegas.  In 2013, he pledged $350 million for projects there, and relocated Zappos’ headquarters into the former Las Vegas City Hall building.

Former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang praised his fellow entrepreneur.

“I am stunned,” Yang tweeted.  “Tony Hsieh touched so many lives and inspired so many entrepreneurs.  His impact and legacy will go on and on.  I met his family in Las Vegas – and am thinking of them today.  RIP Tony.  You will be missed.”

Foreign Affairs

Iran: Responding to the assassination of its top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran ordered an immediate ramping up of its enrichment of uranium to levels closer to weapons-grade fuel.  The measure that was enacted also requires the expulsion of international nuclear inspectors if American sanctions are not lifted by early February, posing a direct challenge to President-elect Biden.

The new law orders Iran’s Atomic Energy Agency to resume enriching uranium to a level of 20 percent immediately, returning Iran’s program to the maximum level that existed before the 2015 nuclear agreement reached with the Obama administration.

Uranium enriched to that level would give Iran the ability to convert its entire stockpile to bomb-grade levels within six months.  The move could be seen as a provocation by the Trump administration; the president having previously asked his advisers about military options to stop the country from producing the fuel.

Iran’s Parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, a former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps commander, said the measure was meant to send the West a message in the aftermath of the assassination that the “one-way game is over.”

And tonight, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran told the group that it planned to install hundreds more advanced uranium-enriching centrifuges at its underground plant at Natanz, in breach of the nuclear accord.

Under the deal, Iran was only allowed to use first-generation centrifuges, which are less efficient, but Iran recently brought in the advanced IR-2m machines and is enriching with them.  So this is yet another issue a Biden administration will be faced with.  He has said he wanted to bring the U.S. back into the deal if Iran resumes full compliance with its nuclear restrictions.

Regarding the killing of Fakhrizadeh, the UAE condemned it and called on all parties to exercise self-restraint.  Syria accused Israel and “those who supported it” of being behind the killing, an act that would fuel more tensions in the region.

Israel: The state edged closer this week towards a fourth national election in two years after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s main governing partner, Benny Gantz, backed an opposition move to dissolve parliament.  Parliament gave preliminary approval to a dissolution bill, but the legislation needs to pass three as yet unscheduled votes to become law, giving Netanyahu and Gantz, the defense minister, more time to work out differences over a national budget.

The coalition crisis could plunge Israel into more political uncertainty as it prepares for a Biden presidency, deals with the coronavirus and awaits Iran’s next moves after the assassination of Fakhrizadeh.

Under law, if a budget isn’t passed by a Dec. 23 deadline, Israel would go to the polls in March.  Under the “unity” government, a looming “rotation” arrangement would have Gantz, head of the centrist Blue and White party, take over from Israel’s longest-serving leader in November 2021.  Few believe that Netanyahu, on trial for alleged corruption which he denies, would relinquish his post.  He has alleged that Gantz had pursued partisan policies violating the spirit of their unity agreement.

Afghanistan: The Pentagon has approved drawdown plans in the country as officials carry out President Trump’s orders to slash troop levels to 2,500 by Jan. 15, Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, offered on Thursday at a virtual event.  Milley did not disclose which bases would be shuttered or say what capabilities would be lost as the U.S. removes 2,000 troops from the country. 

Looking back, Milley said the United States had “achieved a modicum of success” in Afghanistan. He stressed the importance of peace talks, noting that as “odious” as this is to some people (negotiating with the Taliban), the fact is “the most common way that insurgencies end, is through a power-sharing negotiated settlement.”

So regarding negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban, the two sides reached a preliminary deal on Wednesday to press on with peace talks, their first written agreement in 19 years of war and welcomed by the United States as a chance to halt the violence.  The agreement lays out the way forward for discussion but is considered a breakthrough because it will allow negotiators to move on to more substantive issues, including talks on a ceasefire, even as Taliban attacks on Afghan government forces have continued unabated.  Secretary of State Mike Pompeo congratulated the two sides for their “perseverance and willingness to find common ground,” and added that the U.S. would “work hard with all sides in pursuit of a serious reduction of violence and ceasefire.”

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas on Tuesday warned NATO against withdrawing troops prematurely and said it should “ensure that we tie further troop reductions in Afghanistan to clear conditions.”

“The biggest obstacle remaining is the current unacceptable level of violence: this must stop,” the UK’s mission in Kabul said on Twitter after the agreement.

As in last Sunday, when a car bombing in the central province of Ghazni killed at least 30 Afghan security force members.  It was most likely the work of the Taliban.

[Related to the above, President Trump ordered the Pentagon to pull nearly all U.S. troops out of Somalia, roughly 700, in another move that goes against the wishes of former defense secretary Mark Esper, who favored keeping both 4,500 troops in Afghanistan and the 700 in Somalia, the latter fighting a low-intensity battle against the local al-Qaeda affiliate, al-Shabaab.]

China: Hong Kong media tycoon and pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai was denied bail on Thursday on a charge of fraud related to the lease of a building that houses his Apple Daily, an anti-government tabloid.  Hong Kong authorities have intensified a crackdown on key opposition figures since Beijing circumvented the territory’s legislature and imposed sweeping national security legislation on the global financial center on June 30.

Critics say the law crushes freedoms enshrined under the “one country, two systems” formula, while supporters say it will bring stability after prolonged anti-China, pro-democracy protests last year.

On Wednesday, one of Hong Kong’s most prominent democracy activists, Joshua Wong, was jailed for more than 13 months for his role in an anti-government rally in 2019, the toughest and most high-profile sentencing of an opposition figure this year.  Wong’s long-time colleagues Agnes Chow, 23, and Ivan Lam, 26, were jailed for a total of 10 and seven months, respectively.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Washington was “appalled” by the persecution of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy advocates.  “We stand with Joshua Wong, Agnes Chow, Ivan Lam, Jimmy Lai, the people of Hong Kong, and all the people of China,” he said in a statement.  “The use of courts to silence peaceful dissent is a hallmark of authoritarian regimes and underscores once again that the Chinese Communist Party’s greatest fear is the free speech and free thinking of its own people.”

Japan voiced “grave concerns” about the jailing of Wong et al.

Ted Hui, one of 15 opposition lawmakers who quit the Legislative Council last month and faces criminal charges in Hong Kong, told Danish media he will seek exile in Britain, as he risks jail if he goes home.

“There is no word to explain my pain and it’s hard to hold back tears,” Hui said on Thursday.  “Since the national security law, we have fallen into the darkness of tyranny and it breaks my heart to hear the fate of many of my friends.”

Hui said he would make it his “life mission to widen Hong Kong’s international battle front” with activists living there, including Nathan Law Kwun-chung, who earlier fled to London.

Hui, who faces nine criminal charges in Hong Kong, including offenses relating to last year’s anti-government protests, was on bail and received permission from the court to travel abroad.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“No one is better known across the world for advocating democracy in Hong Kong than Jimmy Lai. So when Hong Kong police picked him up Wednesday on dubious fraud charges, China was sending a clear message: If you oppose us anywhere in the world, we will crush you.

“In Mr. Lai’s case the decision to arrest him over the terms of a business lease sends the additional message that any charges will do. Though the fraud charge is not as serious as some of the others he already faces, especially on national security, its purpose is to dirty him up before he goes to trial on the others.

“It’s no coincidence he was detained the same day three other pro-democracy champions – Joshua Wong, Agnes Chow and Ivan Lam – pleaded guilty and were sentenced to prison for participating in 2019 protests against a proposed extradition law.  House Speaker Nancy Pelosi rightly denounced the sentences as ‘appalling.’

“We trust Joe Biden is paying attention.  No doubt he’s not eager to start trouble with China. But Chinese leader Xi Jinping has his own priorities.  He is testing whether a Biden Administration – especially one seeking a climate accord – will look the other way on China’s behavior in Hong Kong and elsewhere….

“The most powerful message the U.S. can send to China is moral.  In his famous 1974 essay ‘Live Not By Lies,’ Alexander Solzhenitsyn said the best way to resist was to refuse to participate in the everyday lies all Communist regimes depend on. This is particularly true with regard to Mr. Xi, who demands that the world accept China’s lies about everything from the origins of the coronavirus to his incarceration of more than a million Uighurs.

“China is now claiming that Jimmy Lai, Hoshua Wong, Agnes Chow and Ivan Lam are criminals for taking a stand for democracy. Insisting on the truth may not immediately set them free.  But the lack of moral credibility is the regime’s biggest vulnerability, and refusing to accept its lies must be the starting point of any U.S. China policy.”

Editorial / Washington Post

“The sentencing of activists Joshua Wong, Agnes Chow and Ivan Lam in Hong Kong for taking part in pro-democracy demonstrations last year should alarm everyone concerned about the retreat of democracy and rule of law.  China is rapidly drowning Hong Kong in the mainland’s intolerant authoritarianism.  As the prison cell doors clang shut on these three, another piece of Hong Kong’s treasured liberty will be lost…

“Would China be a bit more careful if President Trump had been less erratic and more forceful in standing up for democracy?  Would Mr. Wong be free if the president hadn’t signaled to Chinese leader Xi Jinping privately at the Osaka, Japan, summit in 2019 that the United States would tone down criticism on Hong Kong to revive trade talks?  Would Mr. Xi have been deterred if Mr. Trump had given a speech saying China ‘runs against the tide of history by denying human freedom and human dignity to its citizens,’ which it does – and is how President Ronald Reagan described the Soviet Union in 1982? We won’t know because Mr. Trump chose to favor dictators over democracy.

“President-elect Joe Biden has a golden opportunity when he takes office in January to show China that in the multiple channels of its relationship with the United States, democracy and human rights will remain central, not just be trotted out for an election year. Whether Mr. Xi likes it or not, Mr. Biden should repeat the names – Joshua Wong, Agnes Chow and Ivan Lam – from the very start of his engagement with China.

“Mr. Biden might also remind Mr. Xi of the wise and enduring message in Mr. Wong’s first letter from prison: ‘Cages cannot lock up souls.’”

Ethiopia: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed lauded his troops on Monday for ousting a rebellious northern movement, but the leader of Tigrayan forces said they were still resisting amid fears of a protracted guerrilla conflict.  The nearly month-long war killed hundreds and probably thousands of people, sent refugees into Sudan, enmeshed Eritrea, and stirred rivalries among Ethiopia’s myriad ethnic groups.

Federal forces captured the regional capital of Mekelle at the weekend and declared victory over the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, a guerrilla movement-turned-political party that dominated national government for nearly three decades until 2018.

“Our constitution was attacked but it didn’t take us three years, it took us three weeks,’ Abiy told parliament, comparing his offensive with the American Civil War.  Abiy claimed his troops had not killed a single civilian in Tigray since starting an offensive in response to an attack on an army base on Nov. 4. 

There were atrocities committed by both sides, it would appear, but getting the truth out of the region has been hard.

Azerbaijan and Armenia: Azerbaijan said Thursday that it lost nearly 2,800 soldiers in 44 days of fighting with Armenian forces over the separatist territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, the first time it disclosed its military casualties.  The government also said 94 of its civilians were killed and more than 400 wounded in shelling.

Armenia’s Health Ministry said Wednesday that at least 2,718 Armenian servicemen were killed in the fighting.  Scores of Armenian civilians were also killed.

A Moscow-brokered peace agreement saw the return to Azerbaijan of a significant part of Nagorno-Karabakh and also required Armenia to hand over all of the regions it held outside the separatist territory.

Russia is deploying nearly 2,000 peacekeepers for a period of at least five years to monitor the deal and facilitate the return of refugees. 

France:  Former French President Valery Giscard d’Estaing, a key architect of European integration in the early 1970s, died at the age of 94.  Giscard was France’s leader from 1974 to 1981.  He was known for steering a modernization of French society during his presidency, including allowing divorce by mutual consent and legalizing abortion.

Elected president at 48, he came to power after years of Gaullist rule and sought to liberalize the economy and social attitudes.  He lost his re-election bid, however, to Socialist Francois Mitterand.

Giscard worked with former West German chancellor Helmut Schmidt to lay the foundations for the euro single currency, setting up the European Monetary System.

Random Musings

--2020 Presidential Election…still counting…as of tonight:

Joe Biden…81,283,735 (51.3%)
Donald Trump…74,222,580 (46.9%)

2016

Hillary Clinton…65,853,514 (48.2%)
Donald Trump…62,984,828 (46.1%)

[Gary Johnson (3.3%) and Jill Stein (1.1%)]

2020 Battleground States vs. 2016

Wisconsin 49.5-48.8…Biden / 47.2-46.5…Trump
Michigan 50.6-47.8…Biden / 47.5-47.3…Trump
Pennsylvania 50.0-48.8…Biden / 48.2-47.5…Trump
Florida 51.2-47.9…Trump / 49.0-47.8…Trump
North Carolina 49.9-48.6…Trump / 49.8-46.2…Trump
Georgia…49.5-49.25…Biden / 50.8-45.6…Trump
Arizona…49.4-49.1…Biden / 48.7-45.1…Trump
Nevada…50.1-47.7…Biden / 47.5-46.0…Clinton
New Hampshire…52.8-45.5…Biden / 47.0-46.6…Clinton
Minnesota…52.4-45.3…Biden / 46.4-44.9…Clinton
Texas…52.0-46.5…Trump / 52.2-43.2…Trump
Ohio…53.3-45.2…Trump / 51.7-43.6…Trump
Iowa…53.1-44.9…Trump / 51.1-41.7…Trump

--Fred Hiatt / Washington Post

“Let’s say you’re a Republican senator who claims to support democracy and U.S. leadership in the world.

“Let’s imagine, too, that you’ve spent four years excusing and supporting a president who fawned over North Korea’s odious dictator, encouraged China’s ruling tyrant to build his concentration camps, took the word of Russia’s strongman over U.S. intelligence agencies and celebrated the Saudi despot who orchestrated the dismemberment of a dissident journalist.

“And let’s posit that, on top of all that, you’ve been a profile in cowardice as your president tried to nullify a democratic election here at home.

“Now the president-elect appoints a team of seasoned, moderate foreign policy experts who support democracy and American leadership in the world.

“How do you respond?

“Like this, maybe? ‘I’m sure I will have my differences with President-elect Joe Biden and his team over the coming years. But we share many fundamental principles. His nominees are beyond well-qualified.

“ ‘For the good of our country, I wish them every success.’

“In our dreams.

“Here is the way Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) actually greeted the new team: ‘Biden’s cabinet picks went to Ivy League schools, have strong resumes, attend all the right conferences & will be polite & orderly caretakers of America’s decline.’

“I suppose this sour, graceless tweet shouldn’t surprise us.  It shouldn’t surprise us to see Rubio, along with Tom Cotton (Ark.), Josh Hawley (Mo.) and other Republican senators, disparaging the incoming Biden team.  They are now in the opposition, after all.  In an ideal world, constructive criticism from the opposition might help keep an administration sharp and focused.  In a USA TODAY op-ed following the tweet, Rubio said his main concern is the new team will be too soft on China.

“But there is something particularly galling about this instant pivot to attack mode from senators who couldn’t even bring themselves to acknowledge the results of the election – who have stood by or cheered as President Trump has attempted to overturn those results.

“Rubio obviously knows that Trump lost clearly and convincingly, in the electoral college as well as the popular vote. Rubio has been silent as the president claims, with no basis, that the election was stolen. He applauded as Trump attempted to make that case in court, where his lawyers were turned away again and again because they had no evidence.

“And when Trump then pressed state and local officials – the secretary of state in Georgia, legislators in Pennsylvania, the Board of State Canvassers in Michigan – to nullify the results, Rubio offered no objection.

“If Trump’s coup attempt has failed, it is because his defeat was so decisive – and because those state and local officials had the integrity and courage to resist Trump’s pressure.

“But here’s the essential point: Almost no Republicans on the national stage had the integrity or courage to offer backup for these local officials.  Almost none of them gave the public any reason to hope that if Trump’s effort to steal the election state by state had gained traction, they would have stood against it….

“After such a near-miss of a constitutional crisis, you might hope Rubio would opt for a few days of quiet self-reflection – or at least abashed silence.

“You might hope that he would reach out with an offer of cooperation to Secretary of State-designate Antony Blinken – a man with a long record of bipartisanship and commitment to human rights and free speech, values Rubio claims to champion.

“You might hope Rubio would at least wait until the current president had the decency to concede before pronouncing the next one a failure.

“But no.  Rubio is already suiting up for the politics of destruction, already certain that this new team will preside over America’s decline.

“It’s enough to make you despair that he may be right, though not for the reasons he would have us believe.”

--I’ve followed Maria Bartiromo’s career since day one.  She did a lot as a pioneer on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.  Then she moved from CNBC to Fox News and, well, she drank the Kool-Aid. 

So Sunday she had the first interview with President Trump since he lost re-election and her lengthy phone conversation focused almost entirely on Trump’s claims that the election was stolen through fraud.

Trump levied a dizzying series of false claims and conspiracy theories, from allegations that the FBI and Justice Department were involved in the stolen election to claims the election was rigged through voting machines, and Bartiromo largely nodded her head in affirmation.

Trump also repeatedly claimed that Biden could not have won more votes than former President Barack Obama, citing this hunch as evidence the election was rigged.

“We won the election easily. There’s no way Joe Biden got 80 million votes. There’s no way Joe Biden beat Barack Obama in the Black communities of various cities,” Trump said.  “This election was a fraud. It was a rigged election.”

“This is disgusting!” Bartiromo exclaimed in response.  “And we cannot allow America’s election to be corrupted.”

Trump told Bartiromo his complaints might last past the Dec. 14 vote of the Electoral College and even the Jan. 20 inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden.

“My mind will not change in six months,” he said.

Sorry, Maria…whatever reputation you had for integrity went up in flames.  And so much for your legacy.

--The House on Friday passed a sweeping reform bill that would decriminalize marijuana at the federal level and expunge many non-violent criminal records, the final vote 228-164.

But the bill is likely to stall in the Republican-controlled Senate, though passage in the House could push President-elect Biden to take executive action after he takes office.  Vice President-elect Harris is the key sponsor of the parallel bill in the Senate.

Harris said that Congress “must act to remove the burden of marijuana convictions,” adding that the criminal records act is a roadblock to job and housing opportunities.

--2020 is on track to be the second hottest on record, behind 2016, the World Meteorological Organization said on Wednesday.  Stoked by extreme heat, wildfires flared across Australia, Siberia and the United States this year, sending smoke plumes around the globe.  UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a speech that human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are to blame and policies have yet to rise to the challenge.  “To put it simply the state of the planet is broken.  Humanity is waging war on nature.  This is suicidal.”

A less visible sign of change was a surge in marine heat to record levels, with more than 80% of the global ocean experiencing a marine heatwave, the WMO said.

Hot years have typically been associated with El Nino, a natural event that releases heat from the Pacific Ocean.  But this year coincides with La Nina, which has the opposite effect and cools temperatures. 

The WMO will confirm the data next March. 

--I failed to write something earlier that’s been on my mind, but it’s too late.  I was going to say I was worried about Joe Biden and his dogs in the White House, because it’s a little known fact Arnold Palmer had a bad fall when he tripped over his beloved Lab and friends say it was a steady deterioration in his condition after.  That’s now forever in the back of my mind when it comes to dogs and the elderly.

So that’s what I wanted to write regarding Biden. It’s great to have dogs back in the White House, but we’ll see how this is handled, especially now that he suffered a fractured foot while playing with Major, one of his two German shepherds.

--This is pretty cool.  This year’s winter solstice will bring a rare sight to our night skies, as reported by USA TODAY.  Jupiter and Saturn will appear closer to one another on Dec. 21 than they have been since the Middle Ages.  If you can gaze into the southwestern horizon at the right time, the two gas giants will look like neighboring points of light, almost a “double planet,” said Rice University astronomer Patrick Hartigan.

“Alignments between these two planets are rather rare, occurring once every 20 years or so, but this conjunction is exceptionally rare because of how close the planets will appear to one another,” Hartigan explained.

“You’d have to go all the way back to just before dawn on March 4, 1226, to see a closer alignment between these objects visible in the night sky.”

No doubt copious amounts of grog were being consumed by villagers as they observed the phenomenon back then.

---

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

We pray for our healthcare workers and first responders.

God bless America.

---

Gold $1840
Oil $46.09

Returns for the week 11/30-12/4

Dow Jones  +1.0%  [30218]
S&P 500  +1.7%  [3699]
S&P MidCap  +1.8%
Russell 2000  +2.0%
Nasdaq  +2.1%  [12464]

Returns for the period 1/1/20-12/4/20

Dow Jones  +5.9%
S&P 500  +14.5%
S&P MidCap  +8.8%
Russell 2000  +13.4%
Nasdaq  +38.9%

Bulls 64.7
Bears
16.7…64.6 / 17.2 split prior week…any ‘Bull’ reading over 60 is a major warning sign.

Hang in there.  Mask up…wash your hands.

Brian Trumbore

 

 



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Week in Review

12/05/2020

For the week 11/30-12/4

[Posted 10:00 p.m. ET, Friday]

NOTE: StocksandNews has significant ongoing costs and your support is greatly appreciated.  Please click on the gofundme link or send a check to PO Box 990, New Providence, NJ 07974.

Edition 1,129

President Trump started out today with a few tweets:

“GET TOUGH REPUBLICANS!”

“RIGGED ELECTION!”

“MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

Trump is traveling to Georgia tomorrow, Saturday, to campaign for Republican Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, who face Jan. 5 runoffs that will determine control of the Senate.  Perdue is facing Democrat Jon Ossoff, and Loeffler is running against Democrat Raphael Warnock.

It is likely the president will go wildly off script to criticize GOP Gov. Brian Kemp and other Republican officials at the rally in Valdosta.  And White House officials and Trump campaign aides know he will fixate on his complaints that the election was rigged, even though Georgia has certified President-elect Joe Biden as the winner of the state’s 16 electoral votes.  No evidence of widespread voter fraud, in Georgia or elsewhere, has emerged.

It could be rather explosive.  Wednesday, attorneys Lin Wood and Sidney Powell told a crowd of Trump loyalists in Georgia not to vote for either Perdue or Loeffler.  Wood said: “Do not be fooled twice. This is Georgia. We ain’t dumb. You’re not going to vote on Jan. 5 on another machine made by China.  You’re not going to fool Georgians again.  If Kelly Loeffler wants your vote, if David Perdue wants your vote, they’ve got to earn it.”

Wood said the Georgia senators must “demand publicly, repeatedly, consistently” for Gov. Kemp to call a special legislative session to address the election.

“And if they do not do it, they have not earned your vote.  Don’t you give it to them. Why would you go back and vote in another rigged election?”

If you’re thinking this line of reasoning is rather non-sensical, you’re right.  Tuesday, Gabriel Sterling, a Republican election official in Georgia, lashed out at President Trump for failing to condemn threats of violence against people overseeing the voting system in the state.

“It has to stop,” Sterling said at a news conference.  “Mr. President, you have not condemned these actions or this language.”

He added: “This is elections. This is the backbone of democracy, and all of you who have not said a damn word are complicit in this. It’s too much.”

Sterling said the president needed to “step up,” saying, “Stop inspiring people to commit potential acts of violence. Someone is going to get hurt, someone is going to get shot, someone is going to get killed. And it’s not right.”

Wednesday, Trump ranted for 46 minutes in an astonishing video filled with baseless allegations of voter fraud and outright falsehoods in which he declared the nation’s election system “under coordinated assault and siege” and argued that it was “statistically impossible” for him to have lost to President-elect Joe Biden.

Having sworn an oath to uphold the Constitution, Trump tried to lever the power of the presidency to subvert the vote and overturn the election results.

Saying it “may be the most important speech I’ve ever made,” Trump delivered it to the camera, with no audience, as he desperately tries to reverse the outcome of his election loss after a month of failed legal challenges and as key states have certified Biden’s victory.

Trump called on the Supreme Court to “do what’s right for our country,” which he suggested entailed terminating hundreds of thousands of votes so that “I easily win in all states.”

“This election was rigged. Everybody knows it,” Trump said. He added, “Our country needs someone to say, ‘You’re right.’ …If we don’t root out the fraud, the tremendous and horrible fraud that’s taken place in our 2020 election, we don’t have a country anymore.”

This came a day after his attorney general, William Barr, who has been doing the president’s bidding throughout his tenure, said in an interview with the Associated Press that the Justice Department had found no evidence of voting fraud that could have changed the outcome of the election.

“To date, we have not seen fraud on a scale that could have affected a different outcome in the election.”

Barr last month told federal prosecutors to pursue investigations into credible allegations of election fraud, but warned them to avoid probes into “fanciful or far-fetched claims.”

President Trump was livid with Barr after, as you can imagine.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“No, Pennsylvania didn’t count more mail votes than it sent out.  No, Wisconsin didn’t have 89% turnout.  No, several states didn’t simultaneously quit counting ballots on election night. No, ballots in Arizona filled out with Sharpie markers weren’t discounted. In an election with 155 million votes, there are no doubt irregularities and maybe some fraud. But for Mr. Trump to win the Electoral College, he’d need to flip tens of thousands of votes in multiple states.

“We’re open to evidence of major fraud, but we haven’t seen claims that are credible.  Now comes Mr. Barr, who has no reason to join a coverup.  He likes his job.  He wanted Mr. Trump to win. As the election timetable closes, Mr. Trump should focus on preserving his legacy rather than diminishing it by alleging fraud he can’t prove.”

Philip Bump / Washington Post

“For all of the reporting about how Trump understands that he lost the race and is discussing a potential run in 2024, the speech released Wednesday did not convey any calculated assessment of the situation.  It was a cri de Coeur which, given the season, begs comparisons to the Festivus airing of grievances from George Costanza’s father on ‘Seinfeld’ – another older Queens man unable to gracefully accept the nature of the world around him.

“Introducing that comparison, though, risks diminishing the danger of Trump’s commentary.

“Again, there wasn’t anything new to it. It was a pastiche of so much that we’ve heard so often.  It presented no coherent case for the existence of fraud, instead substituting a volume of accusations for an abundance of proof.  Having hundreds of people make unfounded allegations isn’t proof of wrongdoing, as any review of those sheaves of affidavits collected by Trump’s campaign from various supporters makes clear.  Having one person make hundreds of unfounded allegations isn’t proof either – but Trump’s goal isn’t proving each point. It’s getting Americans to accept maybe just one or two, so that they’re receptive to his broader point: Something Must Be Done….

“In the speech, Trump made vague demands that someone – anyone – intervene.

“ ‘This election was rigged.  Everybody knows it,’ he said.  ‘I don’t mind if I lose an election, but I want to lose an election fair and square. What I don’t want to do is have it stolen from the American people.  That’s what we’re fighting for, and we have no choice but to be doing that.’

“ ‘We already have the proof.  We already have the evidence, and it’s very clear,’ he continued.  ‘Many people in the media – and even judges – so far have refused to accept it.  They know it’s true.  They know it’s there.  They know who won the election, but they refuse to say you’re right.  Our country needs somebody to say, ‘You’re right.’’

“He’s not right.  His purported evidence is nothing more than a dusting of allegations from motivated parties claiming that something unprovably wrong occurred.  The media does know who won the election: Joe Biden.  But, for whatever reason, Trump cannot bring himself to say that.

“There’s a new burbling among Trump’s supporters that follows his claims to their logical endpoint.  His former national security adviser, Michael Flynn, and his former attorney general have endorsed the idea that Trump should somehow try to step outside the boundaries of the Constitution to force some sort of re-vote supervised by the military: an overt coup to supplant Trump’s lazier attempt. Trump didn’t endorse that idea in his speech, but, given what he’s already endorsed, we shouldn’t assume the thought hasn’t crossed his mind.

“The essential question of the moment is how far Trump wants to go.  Was this his way of sulking? Was the speech a lengthy vent, an airing of grievances without peer in American history?  Or was it a sign Trump will continue to want to push the understood boundaries of what our electoral system allows?

“The second most important question is whether his enthusiastic base of supporters will recognize the difference between those two motivations.”

Republican Senator Mitt Romney (Utah) said on CNN Thursday: “If (Trump) doesn’t have evidence that could convince a court, and if he doesn’t have evidence to convince the American people of widespread voter fraud, then making these accusations is only damaging the cause of freedom and putting people’s lives at risk….(The president’s actions) strike at the very foundation of our democracy…Russia and China are laughing.”

The other week, the Washington Post’s David Ignatius pointed out that we are approaching a key date, Dec. 12, two days before the Electoral College meets, in terms of a way President Trump could disrupt the transfer of power.

That day: “Trump supporters plan to gather for a mass rally at the Lincoln Memorial. The National Park Service has already granted them a permit, according to local reports. The last such rally, touted as a ‘Million MAGA March’ on Nov. 14, drew only several thousand Trump supporters. But they were confronted by a few hundred counterprotesters, and when night fell, the anti-Trump forces ‘triggered…mayhem as they harassed Trump’s advocates,’ according to The Post.

“The Dec. 12 rally will probably draw a larger pro-Trump crowd, and if counter-protests become violent again, that could give Trump the excuse he may want to claim his opponents have staged a rebellion. The Biden team should be thinking now how to convey a firm message: Keep cool.  Don’t take the bait.

“Let’s imagine the grimmest scenario. Trump claims that violent protests are ‘insurrection, or obstruction to the laws [Ed. as an 1807 statute puts it]…and orders active-duty troops to intervene.”

Well, that’s a week off.  We’ll see what happens this coming week, starting tomorrow in Georgia.

---

Mitt Romney, in noting the president has gone AWOL on the coronavirus, called it a “Great human tragedy…in some respects unnecessary.  Unless you take this as a matter of safety and public health” people will die.  “It’s’ unacceptable.”

Covid deaths hit a new daily high in the U.S. on Thursday (and a new case count high today), leaving hospitals in some regions of the country without enough beds in intensive-care units to meet their patients’ needs.  Nationwide, more than 100,000 were hospitalized with Covid-19, including a record number of people in intensive care.

California Gov. Gavin Newsome said most of the state would face stay-at-home orders in coming days under a new mandate that would close some businesses and restrict others when hospital ICUs have less than 15% capacity.  The restrictions would last for three weeks.

“The bottom line is if we don’t act now, our hospital system will be overwhelmed,” he said.

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti issued an order for residents to stay at home, warning that the city is approaching a “devastating tipping point.”

Then today, San Francisco imposed new lockdown orders and business restrictions.  “What we’re seeing now is a spike unlike anything we’ve seen so far in the pandemic,” said Mayor London Breed.

Hospital administrators say they are racing to hire more nurses, squeezing extra beds onto floors and, in some cases, moving patients across state lines to find room for the critically ill.  In some overrun pockets of the country, these emergency measures are no longer enough, doctors and nurses say.

The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned on Wednesday that the nation is facing a devastating winter, predicting that total deaths from Covid-19 could reach “close to 450,000” by February unless a large percentage of Americans follow precautions like mask-wearing.

“The reality is, December and January and February are going to be rough times,” said Dr. Robert Redfield, the head of the CDC, in an address to the Chamber of Commerce Foundation. “I actually believe they’re going to be the most difficult times in the public health history of this nation.”

“It’s not a fait accompli,” he said.  “We’re not defenseless.  The truth is that mitigation works.  But it’s not going to work if half of us do what we need to do.  Probably not even if three-quarters do.”

In an indirect shot at President Trump and Scott Atlas, Trump’s most recently departed coronavirus adviser, Redfield said: “When you really want to get everybody on board, you’ve got to have clear, unified, reinforced messaging. The fact that we were still arguing in the summer about whether masks work was a problem.

“The time for debating whether or not masks work or not is over. We clearly have scientific evidence,” he said, pointing specifically to a CDC study in Kansas that showed areas with mask mandates saw a decline in virus transmission, while those without a mandate saw a 100 percent increase.

Late today, the CDC expanded its mask recommendation, urging “universal mask use” indoors anywhere outside your house.

We’ll see what happens after the Thanksgiving holiday, as we head into Christmas.  Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told ABC’s “This Week” last Sunday, “When you have the kind of infection that we have, it doesn’t all of a sudden turn around like that. So clearly in the next few weeks, we’re going to have the same sort of thing.  And perhaps even two or three weeks down the line…we may see a surge upon a surge.”

Yes, vaccines are coming, with FDA approval on the Pfizer and BioNTech version likely soon, Moderna’s to follow.  It is amazing that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, ditto Moderna’s, essentially took 10 months to go from concept to distribution.  But it’s going to take months and months to distribute around the country, let alone around the world, and in the interim, the looming death tolls are beyond sickening.

President-elect Joe Biden has said he will ask Americans to wear masks for his first 100 days in office to curtail the spread.  In an interview with CNN, Biden said he believed there would be a “significant reduction” in Covid cases if every American wore a face covering.  He also said he would order masks to be worn in all government buildings.

“The first day I’m inaugurated I’m going to ask the public for 100 days to mask.  Just 100 days to mask, not forever.  One hundred days.

“And I think we’ll see a significant reduction if we do that, if that occurs with vaccinations and masking to drive down the numbers considerably.”

Constitutional experts say a president has no legal authority to order Americans to wear masks, but Biden said during the interview he and Vice President Kamala Harris would set an example.

But back to the travel numbers, after a little spike over the Thanksgiving holiday, the TSA checkpoint figures are back in the dumper; 38, 34, 31 and 33 percent of 2019 levels, Monday through Thursday.  The Wednesday through Sunday numbers (11/25-11/29) were 41, 35, 42, 36, 41.

But it’s kind of interesting how we traveled this Thanksgiving vs. 2019.  If you match up the corresponding days of the week, 2020’s levels were 54, 21, 28, 37 and 52 percent of 2019.  As in last year a lot of folks flew to see Grandma for just a day or two, while many Americans this time left Wednesday and came back Sunday.  I’d be shocked if we see a similar pattern over Christmas and New Year’s.  As one friend told me who flew from Newark to Florida to visit family, she said it was the most uncomfortable travel experience of her life and she’ll never do it again.

And now we wait for the impact on case numbers.

Covid-19 death tolls, as of tonight….

World…1,524,255
USA…285,550
Brazil…175,981
India…139,736
Mexico…108,863
UK…60,617
Italy…58,852
France…54,767
Iran…49,695
Spain…46,252
Russia…42,176
Argentina…39,512
Colombia…37,467
Peru…36,195
South Africa…21,963

Source: worldometers.info

U.S. daily death tolls…Sun. 819; Mon. 1,238; Tues. 2,611; Wed. 2,831; Thurs. 2,918; Fri. 2,718.

Essentially, each day, Tuesday thru Friday, was a 9/11.

Covid Bytes

--A government advisory panel said Tuesday that healthcare workers and nursing home residents should be at the front of the line when the first vaccine shots become available.  The panel voted 13-1 to recommend that those groups get priority in the first days of any coming vaccination program, when doses are expected to be limited.  The two groups account for about 24 million people out of a U.S. population of around 330 million.

--The European Union criticized Britain’s rapid approval of Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine on Wednesday, saying its own procedure was more thorough, after Britain became the first western country to endorse a Covid shot.

The move to grant emergency authorization to the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has been seen by many as a political coup for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has led his country out of the EU and faced criticism for his handling of the pandemic. The decision was made under an ultra-fast, emergency approval process, which allowed the British drugs regulator to temporarily authorize the vaccine only ten days after it began examining data from large-scale trials.

The EU said it will decide by Dec. 29 whether to provisionally authorize the vaccine.

Johnson warned that it will be some months before the most vulnerable are protected and that the country couldn’t let down its guard.  “We must first navigate a hard winter” of restrictions to try to curb the virus until there’s enough vaccine to go around.

--Pfizer announced cuts to the number of Covid-19 vaccine doses to be distributed this year, 50 million, down from a forecast of 100 million.  The company did not lower its expected distribution of over 1 billion doses by the end of 2021.

--Moderna said its interim durability data from a Phase I study for its Covid-19 vaccine mRNA-1273 showed that neutralizing antibody levels remained high 119 days after recipients received their first dose and 90 days after their second.

Moderna said the high antibody count was consistent across all age groups, from 18 to 71 and older.  No serious adverse events were noted.

Moderna hopes to have 20 million doses available in the U.S. by the end of the year.  It also anticipates having 100 million to 125 million doses available worldwide during the first quarter of 2021, with 85 million to 100 million of those available in the U.S. and 15 million to 25 million outside of the U.S.

--CVS Health Corp. and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. are preparing to bring Covid-19 shots to long-term care facilities, but the effort will need to navigate rollout details that may vary by state, vaccines that require more than one dose and potential reluctance by staffers to get the novel shots.

CVS and Walgreens will deliver most vaccine doses for the nation’s approximately 15,600 nursing homes and 29,000 assisted-living communities.

--Italy approved new restrictions on Thursday to avoid a surge in novel coronavirus infections over Christmas and the New Year, banning midnight Mass and halting movement between towns, as the country posted its highest daily death toll of the pandemic on Thursday, 993.  Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said that from Dec. 21 to Jan. 6 movement between Italy’s 20 regions will only be allowed for work, medical reasons or emergencies.  On Christmas Day, Boxing Day and New Year’s Day, Italians cannot even leave their towns.

Italy is seeing its case numbers come down due to restrictions already in place, but the Christmas holidays threaten to cause a new spike.  It’s the same message around the world.

--Germany is extending restrictive measures designed to slow the spread until Jan. 10.

--According to a trove of newly-leaked documents obtained by CNN, China bungled its handling of the pandemic’s early days – including lowballing Covid-19 data and taking weeks to diagnose new cases.  The documents outline how health officials in Hubei, where the virus was first detected, were hampered by chronic underfunding, leading to gaps in staffing and testing equipment.

“It was clear they did make mistakes – and not just mistakes that happen when you’re dealing with a novel virus – also bureaucratic and politically-motivated errors in how they handled it,” Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, told CNN.

Chinese officials “seemed actually to minimize the impact of the epidemic at any moment in time,” including by not including the number of suspected cases in its total at first, said William Schaffner, professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University.

For example, a report from Hubei marked “internal document, please keep confidential” shows how local health officials on Feb. 10 reported 5,918 new coronavirus cases – while the publicly reported number was just 2,478, according to CNN.

“China had an image to protect internationally, and lower-ranking officials had a clear incentive to under-report – or to show their superiors that they were under-reporting – to outside eyes,” said Andrew Mertha, director of the China Studies Program at Johns Hopkins University.

--Former Presidents George W. Bush, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama have all said they would publicly take a Covid-19 vaccine once one is approved to help promote the drug’s safety, as did President-elect Biden.

Trump World

--Trump’s campaign and the Republican National Committee have raised a combined $207.5 million since Election Day, according to a statement released on Thursday.  The president and campaign have sent out just as many emails post-election as they did before, seeking to raise money to fund legal challenges over alleged irregularities and fraud.  But most of the money will be directed into the president’s PAC for his own future messaging.

--Former Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale says the president would have “won by a landslide” if he showed empathy during the pandemic.  Appearing on Fox News, Parscale, who was fired from the campaign in July and later arrested in September in a video that quickly went viral, said that Trump’s attitude toward Covid-19 is to blame for his loss.

“One, two percent possibly we lost of suburban families, right? The men and women in the suburbs.  Philly suburbs.  Atlanta suburbs.  I think that goes to one thing, and I think it was the decision on Covid to go for opening the economy versus public empathy,” Parscale said.  “And I think a young family with a young child who were scared to take them back to school wanted to see an empathetic president and an empathetic Republican Party.  And I think that – and I said this multiple times, and he chose a different path.”

“I think people were scared,” Parscale added, “And I think if he would have been publicly empathetic, he would have won by a landslide. I think he could have leaned into it instead of run away from it.”

Parscale is spot on.

--President Trump said he would veto the $740 billion National Defense Authorization Act unless it includes a measure eliminating a federal law protecting tech companies such as Facebook and Twitter.

Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act protects tech companies from liability over content posted by users and has been under attack from Trump and Republican lawmakers, who have criticized internet platforms’ content moderation decisions, accusing them of stifling conservative voices.

The Internet Association, which includes Facebook, Amazon.com, Alphabet’s Google and Twitter, blasted Trump.

“Repealing Section 230 is itself a threat to national security. The law empowers online platforms to remove harmful and dangerous content, including terrorist content and misinformation,” the group said.

--Dr. Scott Atlas resigned, saying in a letter to the president, “I worked hard with a singular focus – to save lives and help Americans through this pandemic.

“As you know, I always relied on the latest science and evidence, without any political consideration or influence.”

You can stop laughing. This guy’s reputation is in tatters.

--After Arizona Republican Gov. Doug Ducey certified his state’s election results that showed Joe Biden had defeated Donald Trump, Ducey said, “We do elections well here in Arizona.  The system is strong, and that’s why I have bragged on it so much.”

The president then ripped into Ducey for “rushing to sign” the papers certifying the result.

“We’re going to win this,” said Trump, speaking to a crowd via cellphone.  “Arizona won’t forget what Ducey just did.”

--Trump tweets:

“The ‘Republican’ Governor of Georgia, @BrianKempGA, and the Secretary of State, MUST immediately allow a signature verification match on the Presidential Election.  If that happens, we quickly and easily win the State and importantly, pave the way for a big David and Kelly WIN!”

“Rigged Election. Show signatures and envelopes. Expose the massive voter fraud in Georgia. What is Secretary of State and @BrianKempGA afraid of. They know what we’ll find!!!”

“Looks like certain Republican Senators are getting cold feet with respect to the termination of Big Tech’s Section 230, a National Security and Election Integrity MUST.  For years, all talk, no action. Termination must be put in Defense Bill!”

“Very sadly for our Nation, it looks like Senator @JimInhofe will not be putting the Section 230 termination clause into the Defense Bill.  So bad for our National Security and Election Integrity.  Last chance to ever get it done.  I will VETO!”

“@60Minutes never asked us for a comment about their ridiculous, one sided story on election security, which is an international joke.  Our 2020 Election, from poorly rated Dominion to a Country FLOODED with unaccounted for Mail-In ballots, was probably our least secure EVER!”

“We have some big things happening in our various litigations on the Election Hoax. Everybody knows it was Rigged. They know Biden didn’t get more votes from the Black community than Obama, & certainly didn’t get 80,000,000 votes.  Look what happened in Detroit, Philadelphia, plus!”

“I’m not fighting for me, I’m fighting for the 74,000,000 million people (not including the many Trump ballots that were ‘tossed’), a record for a sitting President, who voted for me!”

“ ‘Democrats suffered crushing down-ballot loss across America.’ @nytimes. This is true. All statehouses won, and in Washington we did great. So I led this great charge, and I’m the only one that lost? No, it doesn’t work that way. This was a massive fraud, a RIGGED ELECTION!”

The Biden Administration

--President-elect Joe Biden nominated a team of liberal and centrist economic advisers to serve alongside Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen, though one pick, Neera Tanden, head of the Center for American Progress, a center-left think tank, to serve as director of the Office of Management and Budget, will face fierce opposition in the Senate.  The others aren’t controversial, with three of them, Cecelia Rouse, Jared Bernstein and Wally Adeyemo having served in the Obama administration.

--Biden has tapped Vivek H. Murthy, a former U.S. surgeon general in the Obama administration, to serve in the same capacity in an expanded version,   Biden also announced that Anthony Fauci would serve as a chief medical adviser and help his administration with its coronavirus response plan.

--But now Biden has to appease the NAACP, Congressional Black Caucus and Hispanic groups with his remaining cabinet picks.  I just want Michele Flournoy at Defense.

--Biden will not remove Christopher Wray as FBI director, if he is still in the job when the president-elect takes office, the New York Times reported.  President Trump may still fire him, however.

Wall Street and the Economy

As I detail below, stocks continued to hit new records on vaccine hopes and renewed stimulus talk, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell communicating again.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said the prospect of coronavirus vaccines has boosted hopes of an end to the pandemic-wrought downturn – but the global economy faces a long and difficult winter first.

When the world’s economy does come back, China will emerge as the big winner, according to the OECD, accounting for as much as one-third of next year’s recovery, with GDP forecast to grow 8%.

The OECD sees the global economy growing by 4.2% in 2021, after contracting by the same degree this year.  In September, when it last released quarterly forecasts, it expected the economy to grow by 5% next year.

The OECD cut its forecast for growth in the U.S. in 2021 to 3.2% from 4%, while it now sees the eurozone economy rising 3.6% next year, down from an earlier estimate of 5.1%.

Meanwhile, the latest “Beige Book” from the Federal Reserve, a look at economic activity across the country, revealed “little or no growth” in four of the 12 regional districts and only modest growth in the others amidst the rapidly spreading health crisis and ongoing recession in large sectors of the economy.  Fed officials have been signaling they feared a winter slowdown following a new wave of Covid and it’s here.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday repeated his plea for Congress to provide more aid to “get us through the winter” and support businesses and households until a vaccine allows for a broader resumption of commerce. 

In keeping with the above, there are real signs the economic recovery is petering out.  Consumer spending has been slowing, fewer are going into restaurants (sit-down), and today the November employment report showed the economy added 245,000 jobs, well below consensus of 500,000-600,000, and a big drop from October’s 610,000.  What makes it worse is that the report captures data for the first two weeks in November and the huge surge in coronavirus cases and deaths has come after, ditto renewed restrictions, so no one is going to be surprised if the December or January reading is negative.

The unemployment rate did tick down to 6.7% from 6.9%, but the government says many are still misclassifying their job status and the figure is really 7.1%.  The number of long-term unemployed also jumped 385,000 to 3.9 million out of a total of 10.7 million who are jobless overall.  [The weekly jobless claims figure did come down to 712,000 after rising the two prior weeks, and the Government Accountability Office says the jobless claims figures are somewhat inflated, though how much isn’t known.]

Average hourly earnings did rise at a solid 4.4% annual rate.

In other economic news, we had the Chicago ISM reading on manufacturing for November which came in at a solid 58.2 (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction), though this is down from a prior 61.1.

The November national ISM reading for the manufacturing sector was 57.5 vs. a prior 59.3, while a reading on the service sector was in line with expectations, 55.9.

A reading on October construction spending was 1.3%, while factory orders for the month rose 1.0%.

Europe and Asia

We had the final November PMIs for the eurozone (courtesy of IHS Markit)  with the EA19 composite at 45.3, down from October’s 50.0; manufacturing 53.8 and services 41.7, the latter down sharply from 46.9 the prior month.

Germany 57.8 manufacturing, services 46.0
France 49.6 mfg., services 38.8 (down from 46.5)
Italy 51.5 mfg., 39.4 services (down from 46.7)
Spain 49.8 mfg., 39.5 services
Ireland 52.2 mfg., 45.4 services
Greece 42.3 mfg.
Netherlands 54.4 mfg.

UK 55.6 mfg., 47.6 services (better than expected).  Regarding manufacturing, there is a lot of stockpiling of raw materials ahead of Brexit.

Chris Williamson / IHS Markit

“The eurozone economy slipped back into a downturn in November as governments stepped up the fight against Covid-19, with business activity hit once again by new restrictions to fight off second waves of virus infections.

“However, this is a decline of far smaller magnitude than seen in the spring.  Unlike earlier in the year, manufacturing has so far continued to expand, buoyed in party by recovering export demand, and the service sector is also seeing a much shallower downturn than during the first lockdowns.

“The relative resilience of services in part reflects spill-over demand from the manufacturing sector for transport and other industrial support services, but also reflects the looser lockdown measures compared to those seen earlier in the year.

“The fourth quarter will nevertheless likely see the eurozone economy take another major step backwards, with especially steep downturns suffered in France, Spain and Italy.

“Encouragingly, growth expectations have lifted higher, as vaccine developments fuel optimism that life can start to return to normal in 2021. It’s anticipated that business and consumer spending will start to rise as the outlook brightens, though a high degree of caution is expected to persist for some time to come.”

Separately, October unemployment for the eurozone came in at 8.4% vs. 8.5% in September, the rate a year earlier 7.4%.  [Eurostat]

Germany 4.5%, France 8.6%, Italy 9.8%, Spain 16.2%, Ireland 7.3%, Netherlands 4.3%.

And retail trade for the EA19 was up 1.5% in October compared with September; up 4.3% from Oct. 2019.

Lastly, a flash November inflation reading came in at -0.3% annualized, 0.4% ex-food and energy.

Brexit:  The week began with both Britain and the European Union cautioning each other that time was running out for a trade deal as negotiators sparred over state aid, how to resolve future disputes and fishing in a last bid to avoid a tumultuous exit come Jan. 1.

The fishing issue is kind of funny, as in fishing alone contributed just 0.03% of British economic output in 2019, while the combination of fishing and shellfish processing makes up 0.1% of UK GDP.

But many Brexit supporters see it as a symbol of the regained sovereignty they hope leaving the EU will bring.  British Environment Secretary George Eustice said, “All we’re asking for…is there to be annual negotiations based on the science and also for there to be a move towards a fairer, more scientific sharing methodology, which is called zonal attachment, which is broadly where the fish are to be found.”

Ireland’s Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said, “Ironically…fish is a more difficult thing to get agreement on…because it is in some ways a more real issue.  You know: ‘How many fish can we catch now?’”

Well, by Thursday evening, talks had gone backwards and the expectations that the bloc’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, would be returning to London are up in the air.

Sky News reported: “Despite intense negotiations over the past 24 hours (fueled by pizza and sandwiches)… ‘talks have gone backwards a bit today.’”  It had been speculated Barnier would return to Brussels, and then head back to London to seal a deal.

The BBC said the EU introduced new elements to the talks.  “A senior (British) government source says ‘at the eleventh hour, the EU is bringing new elements into the negotiation.  A breakthrough is still possible in the next few days, but that prospect is receding.”

Today, a spokesman for Boris Johnson said talks are at a “very difficult point,” underlining that time was running out and that any agreement must respect British sovereignty.  Thursday night, Britain accused the EU of bringing new demands to the table, which the EU denied, describing the charge as spin to extract more concessions.

And then tonight we learned negotiators had called for a pause in talks, with Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen slated to hold a call on Saturday to try to break the impasse, which is supposedly over, you guessed it…fishing rights.  The French, specifically, with issues over the current shape of a potential deal and maintaining access to British waters.

Turning to Asia…China’s official manufacturing PMI was 52.1 in November vs. 51.4 in October, while non-manufacturing was a strong 56.4 vs. 56.2.

The private Caixin manufacturing figure was 54.9 vs. 53.6, the sharpest improvement since Nov. 2010 as China continues to rebound from the coronavirus-induced recession of earlier in the year.  And the service sector reading, 57.8 vs. 56.8, was the quickest rise in activity since April 2010.

Japan had a manufacturing PMI of 49.0 in November vs. 48.7 the prior month.  The service sector came in at 47.8.

October industrial production was up 3.8% over September, but down 3.2% from a year ago.  October retail sales were up 0.4% month-on-month, up 6.4% year-over-year.

Separately, the postponement of the Tokyo Games until next year cost Japanese organizers an additional $2.8 billion, the organizing committee said on Friday.  The estimated cost of the Games before they were canceled ran to as high as $25 billion, while the official figure was given as $12.6 billion.

South Korea reported its manufacturing PMI for November rose to a solid 52.9 from 51.2 in October.  A revised look at third-quarter GDP was also better than expected, up 2.1% over the second quarter, Q1 and Q2 both contracting.  Year-over-year GDP fell 1.1%.

Exports rose 16% in the third quarter after falling 16% in Q2.  In November exports rose 4% over a year ago.

Taiwan reported a manufacturing PMI in November of 56.9.

Street Bytes

--All three of the major indices closed at record highs today, with the Dow Jones up 1.0% for the week to 30218, while the S&P 500 gained 1.7% and Nasdaq 2.1%.  Nasdaq is up a whopping 38.9% for the year.

We closed out the month of November on Monday and what a month it was. The Dow Jones’ 12% gain was its best since Jan. 1987, while the S&P gained 11% and Nasdaq 12%.  Phenomenal.  Again, mostly on talk of vaccines.  The Street is totally ignoring the rising Covid case and death counts, which are impacting economic growth.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 0.09%  2-yr. 0.15%  10-yr. 0.97%  30-yr. 1.74%

The yield on the 10-year is now at its highest level since before the pandemic hit, and the Fed moved in.  Now it’s about a bet that a stimulus deal is on the way.

--Oil inventories decreased for a second consecutive week, the Energy Information Administration reported, though stockpiles remained about 7% above the five-year average for this time of year.

OPEC+ (OPEC plus Russia and others) then agreed to a modest output increase from January of 500,000 barrels per day.  The increase means OPEC+ would move to cutting production by 7.2 million bpd, or 7% of global demand from January, compared with current cuts of 7.7m bpd.

With U.S. producers boosting output for three weeks in a row with rising prices, OPEC+ couldn’t allow them to gain market share.  The price of West Texas Intermediate finished the week at $46.09, its best level since right before the pandemic crushed the energy sector.

Meanwhile, ExxonMobil Corp. is retreating from a plan to increase spending to boost its oil and gas production by 2025 and preparing the slash the book value of its assets by up to $20 billion, as the struggling company reassesses its next decade.

Exxon now plans to spend $19 billion or less next year and $20-$25 billion a year between 2022 and 2025, after previously planning to spend more than $30 billion a year in capital expenditures through 2025.

Exxon also said it would stop investing in certain natural-gas assets and telegraphed a massive write-down of between $17 billion and $20 billion to come in the fourth quarter.

Exxon is focusing its development portfolio on projects with high potential returns, including in Guyana, the U.S. Permian Basin and Brazil.  “Assets removed include certain dry gas resources in the Appalachian and Rocky Mountains, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas in the United States, and in western Canada and Argentina,” the company said.

Chevron announced Thursday that its capital and exploratory budget for 2022 to 2025 is $14bn to $16bn annually, significantly lower than its previous guidance of $19bn to $22bn.

--Cyber Monday was the biggest online shopping day in history as hunkered-down consumers increasingly turned to the web for holiday gift purchases, but it really wasn’t the bump many expected, up 15.1% over  a year ago, or $10.8 billion, according to Adobe Analytics, which tracks online purchases at the top 80 retailers.  In 2019, Cyber Monday spending rose by 19.7%.  Adobe had expected shoppers to spend as much as $12.7 billion or 35% more than in 2019.

Black Friday online sales rose 21.6%, according to Adobe, but of course you had relatively sparse crowds at the malls and shopping districts as Covid cases surged.  Preliminary data from Sensormatic Solutions showed in-store Black Friday traffic dropped by 52.1%.

Separately, a survey by the National Retail Federation found that the Thanksgiving weekend was underwhelming when accounting for both sales online and at stores.

The number of people who shopped online and in stores during the five-day period actually dropped by 3.6 million to 189.6 million, even as the amount they spent shrunk to an average of $311.75 from $361.90 a year earlier, according to the NRF.

Adobe cut its overall online estimate for the holiday season to a 30% increase, down from an earlier 33% forecast.

But a reason for the relatively lighter holiday sales pace, both in-store and online, was simply because a ton of folks have been shopping since October; retailers trying to manage the holiday crunch to avoid shipping delays.

--Boeing received a boost from budget giant Ryanair, which is placing a hefty order for up to 75 additional 737 MAX jets, throwing a commercial lifeline to the embattled planemaker after regulators lifted a 20-month ban, industry sources told Reuters.

Europe’s largest low-cost carrier has been negotiating for months with Boeing over whether to exercise an option for 75 jets, lifting its total MAX order as high as 210 aircraft, as part of a compensation deal for delays caused by the grounding.  Such a deal became possible only after both U.S. and European regulators lifted the almost two-year flight ban.

Each MAX is worth about $125 million at list prices, so a deal for 75 jets helps Boeing stem a hemorrhage in cash caused by a stockpile of 460 undelivered MAX jets outside its factories.  Discounts are generally half catalogue value, however, traders say, and no doubt Ryanair got a good deal.

Boeing continues to negotiate with Southwest and Delta.

United said it would take delivery of a MAX next week and expects to receive eight new MAX aircraft this month.

--Norwegian Air, which has filed for bankruptcy protection, reported a 95 percent collapse in passenger  numbers in November.  The airline is flying just six of its aircraft, as the pandemic has grounded the remaining 134.  CEO Jacob Schram said, “The development of vaccines is great news for the airline industry, and we look forward to welcoming more customers on board as travel restrictions are lifted.”

--Southwest Airlines said on Thursday it had issued notices to 6,828 employees warning them that they could be furloughed, amid the slump in demand.  The involuntary furloughs will happen on March 15 or April 1, unless Southwest reaches cost-saving agreements or the government enacts a satisfactory Payroll Support Program extension.

--The U.S. passenger and cargo airline industry saw total employment fall by nearly 29,000 workers through the month ending in mid-October as government restrictions on laying off workers expired.  The U.S. Transportation Department said U.S. airlines employed 673,278 workers in mid-October, which was 81,749 fewer than in March when U.S. travel demand started falling dramatically due to the pandemic.  The department said that since March, United has reduced its workforce by 32%, or 29,243 employees, while Delta eliminated 32% of its jobs, or 28,751 workers.

--Salesforce.com Inc. agreed to buy Slack Technologies Inc. for $27.7 billion in cash and stock, giving the corporate software giant a popular workplace-communications platform in one of the biggest technology deals of the year.

It is also Salesforce’s largest acquisition, as CEO Marc Benioff has taken his company from a dot-com-era upstart to a titan of cloud computing, orchestrating more than 60 acquisitions in 21 years.  The Slack deal gives Salesforce, the leader in programs for managing customer relationships, another angle of attack against Microsoft Corp., which has become a force in internet-based computing, through Microsoft’s Teams product, which offers a workplace chatroom, automation tools and videoconference hosting, is a top arrival to Slack.

“Together, Salesforce and Slack will shape the future of enterprise software and transform the way everyone works in the all-digital, work-from-anywhere world,” Benioff said in a statement.

--In a blockbuster move that marks the biggest challenge yet to Hollywood’s traditional way of doing business, Warner Bros. announced that 17 movies – its entire 2021 slate – would arrive simultaneously in theaters and on its sibling streaming service, HBO Max.

Normally studios give theaters 90 days to play films exclusively, but HBO Max subscribers will receive instant access to big-budget extravaganzas like a “Suicide Squad” sequel, “Dune” and “The Matrix 4.”  Among the others is a “Sopranos” prequel called “The Many Saints of Newark” that I can’t wait to see.

HBO Max has struggled to attract subscribers since its introduction in May for $15 a month, but the Warner move is also a comment on the future of movie theaters.   Even if a vaccine became widely available in the coming months, WarnerMedia does not believe that moviegoing in the United States will recover until at least next fall, an assessment that stands in sharp contrast with what other major movie studios and multiplex chains have signaled.

Warner’s movies will continue to have traditional theatrical releases outside of the United States, where HBO Max does not currently exist.

This story is just beginning.

--Zoom Video Communications Inc. forecast fourth-quarter revenue above expectations on Monday, as the pandemic-induced switch to work from home encouraged more users of its video conferencing service to sign up for paid subscriptions.

The company expects fourth-quarter revenue of between $806 million and $811 million, above estimates.  Revenue for the third-quarter ended Oct. 31 surged 367% to $777.2 million, beating  analysts’ average estimate of about $694 million.  Net income jumped to $198.4 million, from $2.2 million a year ago.

But the shares fell sharply simply because investors were looking for even more to legitimize the spectacular run the stock has had more a 52-week of $62 to $588! at one point.  It closed the week at $409.

--Meanwhile, Tesla shares jumped anew after Dow Jones Indices said it would add the company to the S&P 500 index all at once on Dec. 21, forcing index funds to buy about $73 billion worth of its shares.  The stock has run from $408 to $600 since the announcement was made on Nov. 16 that it was being added to the index.  Totally insane.  Thursday, Goldman Sachs raised its price target on the company to $850.

--Shares in electric-truck maker Nikola Corp. cratered about 30% after General Motors Co. said it will no longer take an equity stake in the company under a stripped-down agreement revealed Monday, a significant retrenchment from an earlier pact that fueled investor enthusiasm for both companies.

GM still intends to provide Nikola with fuel-cell technology but it has squelched plans to take an 11% stake in the Phoenix-based startup in exchange for supplying engineering work and other services.

GM also scrapped plans to build an electric pickup truck called the Badger for Nikola, a key part of September’s agreement.  That deal got delayed after a short-seller raised questions about the readiness of certain aspects of Nikola’s operation, allegations the company denied.  GM’s initial support was seen as a validation of Nikola’s business model and growth prospects.

--Kohl’s shares surged Tuesday after the department-store operator and Sephora said the beauty company, a unit of French luxury goods company LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton, would open mini stores of about 2,500 square feet that would largely be located in the front of Kohl’s stores.

“The Kohl’s and Sephora partnership will bring a transformational, elevated beauty experience to Kohl’s from the top global name in beauty,” said Kohl’s CEO Michelle Gass. 

According to the companies, Sephora at Kohl’s shops will replace the stores’ current in-store beauty departments with locations based on the proximity of existing Sephora stores, market opportunities, and insights from customers.

Sephora will also become the exclusive beauty partner on Kohl’s website.

This deal totally makes sense, never having stepped into a Sephora store, but always observing it has heavy traffic.

--Kroger Co. saw sales slow during its latest quarter despite people mostly eating at home, highlighting the mounting competition among food sellers to reach consumers during the pandemic.

Sales rose 10.9% at stores open at least 15 months vs. a year ago, which is great, but the nation’s biggest supermarket operator posted 14.6% growth in same-store sales during the prior quarter.

Other food sellers have also indicated similar trends, big sales though lower, like Walmart, whose comp sales rose 6.4% in their latest quarter compared with 9.3% the quarter prior.

Kroger also said that doing business during the pandemic is costly.  The company has spent nearly $1.3 billion on pay raises, bonuses and safety measures since March.

--3M said it is eliminating some 2,900 jobs across its global operations as part of a restructuring drive that will see the industrial conglomerate streamline its business and focus on new business trends to propel sustainable growth.

--The House unanimously approved legislation on Wednesday that threatens a trading ban of shares of Chinese companies such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. over concerns that their audits aren’t sufficiently regulated.

The Senate passed the measure in May and could quickly become law with President Trump’s signature.

The fight is over China’s resistance to allowing overseas inspections of its companies’ audits, and under the measure, Chinese companies and their auditors would have three years to comply with the inspections before a trading prohibition could take effect.

--Macau gaming revenue plunged 70.5% in November from a year ago, according to data from the Gaming Bureau.  The rate of decline was actually the smallest since February, when revenue slumped 87.8%.  The worst decline was April, -96.8%, as travel restrictions due to Covid-19 slammed the casinos.

--Brazil’s economy grew in the third quarter by the most on record as the easing of anti-coronavirus lockdown measures triggered a strong rebound in activity across most sectors, especially industry and services.  GDP rebounded 7.7% from the prior quarter, though Latin America’s largest economy shrank 3.9% from the same three-month period a year ago  The Q3 gain meant the economy overall is now the size it was in late 2016, due to a record second-quarter plunge that had shrunk the economy to its size over a decade ago, in 2009.

--S&P Global Inc. is nearing a deal to acquire IHS Markit Ltd. for about $44 billion, a landmark deal that would combine two of the largest providers of data to Wall Street.

S&P traces its roots to 1860, while IHS Markit was formed in 2016 by the merger of two smaller players that track millions of data points in financial markets, such as the PMI readings up above.

--Carnival Cruise Line said on Thursday it has cancelled select itineraries for next year, including cruise operations in February from Miami, Port Canaveral, and Galveston while moving the inaugural sailing of Mardi Gras to April 24, 2021, as it plans its resumption of operations.

Marid Gras will operate from Port Canaveral, and will be the first liquefied natural gas powered ship in the Americas.  It was built in Finland.

If you book a berth on the Mardi Gras you get beads on your pillow each night in lieu of chocolates.

--Working from home is here to stay, especially for white-collar workers, and that is doing a number on the dry-cleaning business.  I’ve seen a few close in my area, and according to the National Cleaners Association, one in six dry cleaners have closed or gone bankrupt in the U.S. already.   That’s sad.

The slump is particularly tough on Asian American entrepreneurs, as they own at least 40% of dry-cleaning businesses, according to the NCA. 

--Finally, we note the passing of Tony Hsieh, the former CEO of online shoe retailer Zappos, who died last weekend from injuries suffered in a house fire in New London, Conn. on Nov. 18.  The cause was smoke inhalation.

The Harvard graduate joined Zappos in 1999 when it was still called ShoeSite.com, and the company was sold ten years later to Amazon for $1.2 billion.  Hsieh remained as CEO until his recent retirement.

The tech visionary was well-known for his philanthropic endeavors, including playing a leading role in the revitalization of downtown Las Vegas.  In 2013, he pledged $350 million for projects there, and relocated Zappos’ headquarters into the former Las Vegas City Hall building.

Former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang praised his fellow entrepreneur.

“I am stunned,” Yang tweeted.  “Tony Hsieh touched so many lives and inspired so many entrepreneurs.  His impact and legacy will go on and on.  I met his family in Las Vegas – and am thinking of them today.  RIP Tony.  You will be missed.”

Foreign Affairs

Iran: Responding to the assassination of its top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran ordered an immediate ramping up of its enrichment of uranium to levels closer to weapons-grade fuel.  The measure that was enacted also requires the expulsion of international nuclear inspectors if American sanctions are not lifted by early February, posing a direct challenge to President-elect Biden.

The new law orders Iran’s Atomic Energy Agency to resume enriching uranium to a level of 20 percent immediately, returning Iran’s program to the maximum level that existed before the 2015 nuclear agreement reached with the Obama administration.

Uranium enriched to that level would give Iran the ability to convert its entire stockpile to bomb-grade levels within six months.  The move could be seen as a provocation by the Trump administration; the president having previously asked his advisers about military options to stop the country from producing the fuel.

Iran’s Parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, a former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps commander, said the measure was meant to send the West a message in the aftermath of the assassination that the “one-way game is over.”

And tonight, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran told the group that it planned to install hundreds more advanced uranium-enriching centrifuges at its underground plant at Natanz, in breach of the nuclear accord.

Under the deal, Iran was only allowed to use first-generation centrifuges, which are less efficient, but Iran recently brought in the advanced IR-2m machines and is enriching with them.  So this is yet another issue a Biden administration will be faced with.  He has said he wanted to bring the U.S. back into the deal if Iran resumes full compliance with its nuclear restrictions.

Regarding the killing of Fakhrizadeh, the UAE condemned it and called on all parties to exercise self-restraint.  Syria accused Israel and “those who supported it” of being behind the killing, an act that would fuel more tensions in the region.

Israel: The state edged closer this week towards a fourth national election in two years after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s main governing partner, Benny Gantz, backed an opposition move to dissolve parliament.  Parliament gave preliminary approval to a dissolution bill, but the legislation needs to pass three as yet unscheduled votes to become law, giving Netanyahu and Gantz, the defense minister, more time to work out differences over a national budget.

The coalition crisis could plunge Israel into more political uncertainty as it prepares for a Biden presidency, deals with the coronavirus and awaits Iran’s next moves after the assassination of Fakhrizadeh.

Under law, if a budget isn’t passed by a Dec. 23 deadline, Israel would go to the polls in March.  Under the “unity” government, a looming “rotation” arrangement would have Gantz, head of the centrist Blue and White party, take over from Israel’s longest-serving leader in November 2021.  Few believe that Netanyahu, on trial for alleged corruption which he denies, would relinquish his post.  He has alleged that Gantz had pursued partisan policies violating the spirit of their unity agreement.

Afghanistan: The Pentagon has approved drawdown plans in the country as officials carry out President Trump’s orders to slash troop levels to 2,500 by Jan. 15, Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, offered on Thursday at a virtual event.  Milley did not disclose which bases would be shuttered or say what capabilities would be lost as the U.S. removes 2,000 troops from the country. 

Looking back, Milley said the United States had “achieved a modicum of success” in Afghanistan. He stressed the importance of peace talks, noting that as “odious” as this is to some people (negotiating with the Taliban), the fact is “the most common way that insurgencies end, is through a power-sharing negotiated settlement.”

So regarding negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban, the two sides reached a preliminary deal on Wednesday to press on with peace talks, their first written agreement in 19 years of war and welcomed by the United States as a chance to halt the violence.  The agreement lays out the way forward for discussion but is considered a breakthrough because it will allow negotiators to move on to more substantive issues, including talks on a ceasefire, even as Taliban attacks on Afghan government forces have continued unabated.  Secretary of State Mike Pompeo congratulated the two sides for their “perseverance and willingness to find common ground,” and added that the U.S. would “work hard with all sides in pursuit of a serious reduction of violence and ceasefire.”

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas on Tuesday warned NATO against withdrawing troops prematurely and said it should “ensure that we tie further troop reductions in Afghanistan to clear conditions.”

“The biggest obstacle remaining is the current unacceptable level of violence: this must stop,” the UK’s mission in Kabul said on Twitter after the agreement.

As in last Sunday, when a car bombing in the central province of Ghazni killed at least 30 Afghan security force members.  It was most likely the work of the Taliban.

[Related to the above, President Trump ordered the Pentagon to pull nearly all U.S. troops out of Somalia, roughly 700, in another move that goes against the wishes of former defense secretary Mark Esper, who favored keeping both 4,500 troops in Afghanistan and the 700 in Somalia, the latter fighting a low-intensity battle against the local al-Qaeda affiliate, al-Shabaab.]

China: Hong Kong media tycoon and pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai was denied bail on Thursday on a charge of fraud related to the lease of a building that houses his Apple Daily, an anti-government tabloid.  Hong Kong authorities have intensified a crackdown on key opposition figures since Beijing circumvented the territory’s legislature and imposed sweeping national security legislation on the global financial center on June 30.

Critics say the law crushes freedoms enshrined under the “one country, two systems” formula, while supporters say it will bring stability after prolonged anti-China, pro-democracy protests last year.

On Wednesday, one of Hong Kong’s most prominent democracy activists, Joshua Wong, was jailed for more than 13 months for his role in an anti-government rally in 2019, the toughest and most high-profile sentencing of an opposition figure this year.  Wong’s long-time colleagues Agnes Chow, 23, and Ivan Lam, 26, were jailed for a total of 10 and seven months, respectively.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Washington was “appalled” by the persecution of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy advocates.  “We stand with Joshua Wong, Agnes Chow, Ivan Lam, Jimmy Lai, the people of Hong Kong, and all the people of China,” he said in a statement.  “The use of courts to silence peaceful dissent is a hallmark of authoritarian regimes and underscores once again that the Chinese Communist Party’s greatest fear is the free speech and free thinking of its own people.”

Japan voiced “grave concerns” about the jailing of Wong et al.

Ted Hui, one of 15 opposition lawmakers who quit the Legislative Council last month and faces criminal charges in Hong Kong, told Danish media he will seek exile in Britain, as he risks jail if he goes home.

“There is no word to explain my pain and it’s hard to hold back tears,” Hui said on Thursday.  “Since the national security law, we have fallen into the darkness of tyranny and it breaks my heart to hear the fate of many of my friends.”

Hui said he would make it his “life mission to widen Hong Kong’s international battle front” with activists living there, including Nathan Law Kwun-chung, who earlier fled to London.

Hui, who faces nine criminal charges in Hong Kong, including offenses relating to last year’s anti-government protests, was on bail and received permission from the court to travel abroad.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“No one is better known across the world for advocating democracy in Hong Kong than Jimmy Lai. So when Hong Kong police picked him up Wednesday on dubious fraud charges, China was sending a clear message: If you oppose us anywhere in the world, we will crush you.

“In Mr. Lai’s case the decision to arrest him over the terms of a business lease sends the additional message that any charges will do. Though the fraud charge is not as serious as some of the others he already faces, especially on national security, its purpose is to dirty him up before he goes to trial on the others.

“It’s no coincidence he was detained the same day three other pro-democracy champions – Joshua Wong, Agnes Chow and Ivan Lam – pleaded guilty and were sentenced to prison for participating in 2019 protests against a proposed extradition law.  House Speaker Nancy Pelosi rightly denounced the sentences as ‘appalling.’

“We trust Joe Biden is paying attention.  No doubt he’s not eager to start trouble with China. But Chinese leader Xi Jinping has his own priorities.  He is testing whether a Biden Administration – especially one seeking a climate accord – will look the other way on China’s behavior in Hong Kong and elsewhere….

“The most powerful message the U.S. can send to China is moral.  In his famous 1974 essay ‘Live Not By Lies,’ Alexander Solzhenitsyn said the best way to resist was to refuse to participate in the everyday lies all Communist regimes depend on. This is particularly true with regard to Mr. Xi, who demands that the world accept China’s lies about everything from the origins of the coronavirus to his incarceration of more than a million Uighurs.

“China is now claiming that Jimmy Lai, Hoshua Wong, Agnes Chow and Ivan Lam are criminals for taking a stand for democracy. Insisting on the truth may not immediately set them free.  But the lack of moral credibility is the regime’s biggest vulnerability, and refusing to accept its lies must be the starting point of any U.S. China policy.”

Editorial / Washington Post

“The sentencing of activists Joshua Wong, Agnes Chow and Ivan Lam in Hong Kong for taking part in pro-democracy demonstrations last year should alarm everyone concerned about the retreat of democracy and rule of law.  China is rapidly drowning Hong Kong in the mainland’s intolerant authoritarianism.  As the prison cell doors clang shut on these three, another piece of Hong Kong’s treasured liberty will be lost…

“Would China be a bit more careful if President Trump had been less erratic and more forceful in standing up for democracy?  Would Mr. Wong be free if the president hadn’t signaled to Chinese leader Xi Jinping privately at the Osaka, Japan, summit in 2019 that the United States would tone down criticism on Hong Kong to revive trade talks?  Would Mr. Xi have been deterred if Mr. Trump had given a speech saying China ‘runs against the tide of history by denying human freedom and human dignity to its citizens,’ which it does – and is how President Ronald Reagan described the Soviet Union in 1982? We won’t know because Mr. Trump chose to favor dictators over democracy.

“President-elect Joe Biden has a golden opportunity when he takes office in January to show China that in the multiple channels of its relationship with the United States, democracy and human rights will remain central, not just be trotted out for an election year. Whether Mr. Xi likes it or not, Mr. Biden should repeat the names – Joshua Wong, Agnes Chow and Ivan Lam – from the very start of his engagement with China.

“Mr. Biden might also remind Mr. Xi of the wise and enduring message in Mr. Wong’s first letter from prison: ‘Cages cannot lock up souls.’”

Ethiopia: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed lauded his troops on Monday for ousting a rebellious northern movement, but the leader of Tigrayan forces said they were still resisting amid fears of a protracted guerrilla conflict.  The nearly month-long war killed hundreds and probably thousands of people, sent refugees into Sudan, enmeshed Eritrea, and stirred rivalries among Ethiopia’s myriad ethnic groups.

Federal forces captured the regional capital of Mekelle at the weekend and declared victory over the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, a guerrilla movement-turned-political party that dominated national government for nearly three decades until 2018.

“Our constitution was attacked but it didn’t take us three years, it took us three weeks,’ Abiy told parliament, comparing his offensive with the American Civil War.  Abiy claimed his troops had not killed a single civilian in Tigray since starting an offensive in response to an attack on an army base on Nov. 4. 

There were atrocities committed by both sides, it would appear, but getting the truth out of the region has been hard.

Azerbaijan and Armenia: Azerbaijan said Thursday that it lost nearly 2,800 soldiers in 44 days of fighting with Armenian forces over the separatist territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, the first time it disclosed its military casualties.  The government also said 94 of its civilians were killed and more than 400 wounded in shelling.

Armenia’s Health Ministry said Wednesday that at least 2,718 Armenian servicemen were killed in the fighting.  Scores of Armenian civilians were also killed.

A Moscow-brokered peace agreement saw the return to Azerbaijan of a significant part of Nagorno-Karabakh and also required Armenia to hand over all of the regions it held outside the separatist territory.

Russia is deploying nearly 2,000 peacekeepers for a period of at least five years to monitor the deal and facilitate the return of refugees. 

France:  Former French President Valery Giscard d’Estaing, a key architect of European integration in the early 1970s, died at the age of 94.  Giscard was France’s leader from 1974 to 1981.  He was known for steering a modernization of French society during his presidency, including allowing divorce by mutual consent and legalizing abortion.

Elected president at 48, he came to power after years of Gaullist rule and sought to liberalize the economy and social attitudes.  He lost his re-election bid, however, to Socialist Francois Mitterand.

Giscard worked with former West German chancellor Helmut Schmidt to lay the foundations for the euro single currency, setting up the European Monetary System.

Random Musings

--2020 Presidential Election…still counting…as of tonight:

Joe Biden…81,283,735 (51.3%)
Donald Trump…74,222,580 (46.9%)

2016

Hillary Clinton…65,853,514 (48.2%)
Donald Trump…62,984,828 (46.1%)

[Gary Johnson (3.3%) and Jill Stein (1.1%)]

2020 Battleground States vs. 2016

Wisconsin 49.5-48.8…Biden / 47.2-46.5…Trump
Michigan 50.6-47.8…Biden / 47.5-47.3…Trump
Pennsylvania 50.0-48.8…Biden / 48.2-47.5…Trump
Florida 51.2-47.9…Trump / 49.0-47.8…Trump
North Carolina 49.9-48.6…Trump / 49.8-46.2…Trump
Georgia…49.5-49.25…Biden / 50.8-45.6…Trump
Arizona…49.4-49.1…Biden / 48.7-45.1…Trump
Nevada…50.1-47.7…Biden / 47.5-46.0…Clinton
New Hampshire…52.8-45.5…Biden / 47.0-46.6…Clinton
Minnesota…52.4-45.3…Biden / 46.4-44.9…Clinton
Texas…52.0-46.5…Trump / 52.2-43.2…Trump
Ohio…53.3-45.2…Trump / 51.7-43.6…Trump
Iowa…53.1-44.9…Trump / 51.1-41.7…Trump

--Fred Hiatt / Washington Post

“Let’s say you’re a Republican senator who claims to support democracy and U.S. leadership in the world.

“Let’s imagine, too, that you’ve spent four years excusing and supporting a president who fawned over North Korea’s odious dictator, encouraged China’s ruling tyrant to build his concentration camps, took the word of Russia’s strongman over U.S. intelligence agencies and celebrated the Saudi despot who orchestrated the dismemberment of a dissident journalist.

“And let’s posit that, on top of all that, you’ve been a profile in cowardice as your president tried to nullify a democratic election here at home.

“Now the president-elect appoints a team of seasoned, moderate foreign policy experts who support democracy and American leadership in the world.

“How do you respond?

“Like this, maybe? ‘I’m sure I will have my differences with President-elect Joe Biden and his team over the coming years. But we share many fundamental principles. His nominees are beyond well-qualified.

“ ‘For the good of our country, I wish them every success.’

“In our dreams.

“Here is the way Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) actually greeted the new team: ‘Biden’s cabinet picks went to Ivy League schools, have strong resumes, attend all the right conferences & will be polite & orderly caretakers of America’s decline.’

“I suppose this sour, graceless tweet shouldn’t surprise us.  It shouldn’t surprise us to see Rubio, along with Tom Cotton (Ark.), Josh Hawley (Mo.) and other Republican senators, disparaging the incoming Biden team.  They are now in the opposition, after all.  In an ideal world, constructive criticism from the opposition might help keep an administration sharp and focused.  In a USA TODAY op-ed following the tweet, Rubio said his main concern is the new team will be too soft on China.

“But there is something particularly galling about this instant pivot to attack mode from senators who couldn’t even bring themselves to acknowledge the results of the election – who have stood by or cheered as President Trump has attempted to overturn those results.

“Rubio obviously knows that Trump lost clearly and convincingly, in the electoral college as well as the popular vote. Rubio has been silent as the president claims, with no basis, that the election was stolen. He applauded as Trump attempted to make that case in court, where his lawyers were turned away again and again because they had no evidence.

“And when Trump then pressed state and local officials – the secretary of state in Georgia, legislators in Pennsylvania, the Board of State Canvassers in Michigan – to nullify the results, Rubio offered no objection.

“If Trump’s coup attempt has failed, it is because his defeat was so decisive – and because those state and local officials had the integrity and courage to resist Trump’s pressure.

“But here’s the essential point: Almost no Republicans on the national stage had the integrity or courage to offer backup for these local officials.  Almost none of them gave the public any reason to hope that if Trump’s effort to steal the election state by state had gained traction, they would have stood against it….

“After such a near-miss of a constitutional crisis, you might hope Rubio would opt for a few days of quiet self-reflection – or at least abashed silence.

“You might hope that he would reach out with an offer of cooperation to Secretary of State-designate Antony Blinken – a man with a long record of bipartisanship and commitment to human rights and free speech, values Rubio claims to champion.

“You might hope Rubio would at least wait until the current president had the decency to concede before pronouncing the next one a failure.

“But no.  Rubio is already suiting up for the politics of destruction, already certain that this new team will preside over America’s decline.

“It’s enough to make you despair that he may be right, though not for the reasons he would have us believe.”

--I’ve followed Maria Bartiromo’s career since day one.  She did a lot as a pioneer on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.  Then she moved from CNBC to Fox News and, well, she drank the Kool-Aid. 

So Sunday she had the first interview with President Trump since he lost re-election and her lengthy phone conversation focused almost entirely on Trump’s claims that the election was stolen through fraud.

Trump levied a dizzying series of false claims and conspiracy theories, from allegations that the FBI and Justice Department were involved in the stolen election to claims the election was rigged through voting machines, and Bartiromo largely nodded her head in affirmation.

Trump also repeatedly claimed that Biden could not have won more votes than former President Barack Obama, citing this hunch as evidence the election was rigged.

“We won the election easily. There’s no way Joe Biden got 80 million votes. There’s no way Joe Biden beat Barack Obama in the Black communities of various cities,” Trump said.  “This election was a fraud. It was a rigged election.”

“This is disgusting!” Bartiromo exclaimed in response.  “And we cannot allow America’s election to be corrupted.”

Trump told Bartiromo his complaints might last past the Dec. 14 vote of the Electoral College and even the Jan. 20 inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden.

“My mind will not change in six months,” he said.

Sorry, Maria…whatever reputation you had for integrity went up in flames.  And so much for your legacy.

--The House on Friday passed a sweeping reform bill that would decriminalize marijuana at the federal level and expunge many non-violent criminal records, the final vote 228-164.

But the bill is likely to stall in the Republican-controlled Senate, though passage in the House could push President-elect Biden to take executive action after he takes office.  Vice President-elect Harris is the key sponsor of the parallel bill in the Senate.

Harris said that Congress “must act to remove the burden of marijuana convictions,” adding that the criminal records act is a roadblock to job and housing opportunities.

--2020 is on track to be the second hottest on record, behind 2016, the World Meteorological Organization said on Wednesday.  Stoked by extreme heat, wildfires flared across Australia, Siberia and the United States this year, sending smoke plumes around the globe.  UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a speech that human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are to blame and policies have yet to rise to the challenge.  “To put it simply the state of the planet is broken.  Humanity is waging war on nature.  This is suicidal.”

A less visible sign of change was a surge in marine heat to record levels, with more than 80% of the global ocean experiencing a marine heatwave, the WMO said.

Hot years have typically been associated with El Nino, a natural event that releases heat from the Pacific Ocean.  But this year coincides with La Nina, which has the opposite effect and cools temperatures. 

The WMO will confirm the data next March. 

--I failed to write something earlier that’s been on my mind, but it’s too late.  I was going to say I was worried about Joe Biden and his dogs in the White House, because it’s a little known fact Arnold Palmer had a bad fall when he tripped over his beloved Lab and friends say it was a steady deterioration in his condition after.  That’s now forever in the back of my mind when it comes to dogs and the elderly.

So that’s what I wanted to write regarding Biden. It’s great to have dogs back in the White House, but we’ll see how this is handled, especially now that he suffered a fractured foot while playing with Major, one of his two German shepherds.

--This is pretty cool.  This year’s winter solstice will bring a rare sight to our night skies, as reported by USA TODAY.  Jupiter and Saturn will appear closer to one another on Dec. 21 than they have been since the Middle Ages.  If you can gaze into the southwestern horizon at the right time, the two gas giants will look like neighboring points of light, almost a “double planet,” said Rice University astronomer Patrick Hartigan.

“Alignments between these two planets are rather rare, occurring once every 20 years or so, but this conjunction is exceptionally rare because of how close the planets will appear to one another,” Hartigan explained.

“You’d have to go all the way back to just before dawn on March 4, 1226, to see a closer alignment between these objects visible in the night sky.”

No doubt copious amounts of grog were being consumed by villagers as they observed the phenomenon back then.

---

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

We pray for our healthcare workers and first responders.

God bless America.

---

Gold $1840
Oil $46.09

Returns for the week 11/30-12/4

Dow Jones  +1.0%  [30218]
S&P 500  +1.7%  [3699]
S&P MidCap  +1.8%
Russell 2000  +2.0%
Nasdaq  +2.1%  [12464]

Returns for the period 1/1/20-12/4/20

Dow Jones  +5.9%
S&P 500  +14.5%
S&P MidCap  +8.8%
Russell 2000  +13.4%
Nasdaq  +38.9%

Bulls 64.7
Bears
16.7…64.6 / 17.2 split prior week…any ‘Bull’ reading over 60 is a major warning sign.

Hang in there.  Mask up…wash your hands.

Brian Trumbore