Week in Review

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Week in Review

03/27/2021

For the week 3/22-3/26

[Posted 9:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,145

Biden’s Agenda…First Press Conference…

Finally holding his first formal press conference 64 days after taking office, President Biden announced that his administration was increasing his vaccination goal to 200 million doses administered by his 100th day in the office.  And he announced that 100 million Americans had or will receive $1,400 stimulus checks from the latest Covid relief bill.

Then he took questions, and strangely not one question on Covid, despite the fact it continues to dominate our lives.

Biden was asked repeated questions about the situation on the southern border, which he downplayed, saying the current surge has happened before while dismissing the notion that those from other countries feel more comfortable attempting to migrate because Biden is in office, and not Trump.

“Does anybody suggest that there was a 31 percent increase under Trump because he was a nice guy and he was doing good things at the border? That’s not the reason they’re coming,” Biden told reporters.  “The reason they’re coming is that it’s the time they can travel with the least likelihood of dying on the way because of the heat in the desert.”

Biden admitted the current situation with the children in overcrowded facilities was unacceptable and that he is working on opening up more of them, including military bases.  He also repeated that no child will be turned away.

On the issue of transparency at the border, however, the president vowed he would be, though the administration hasn’t been in the least.

But while he has hinted earlier that he was open to changes in the Senate filibuster, with his agenda stalled because of the need for 60 votes, yesterday he appeared like he would like to keep the filibuster in some form.  That said, he did offer: “If we have to, if there is complete lockdown and chaos as a consequence of the filibuster, then we’ll have to go beyond what I’m talking about.”

On the foreign policy front, he made news on Afghanistan, North Korea and China.  On the first topic, the president said he would not be able to keep an agreement to withdraw troops by a May 1 deadline the Trump administration made. [More below on Afghanistan, ditto the other two.]

Biden referred to notes on foreign policy issues, which was immediately the source of ridicule, but he said the right things, especially on North Korea and China, as all the experts I watched after agreed.  Nonetheless, as Fox News’ Chris Wallace commented, he had never seen a president read notes directly at a press conference in all his years covering the White House.

And the president said he would run for reelection, which was a dumb topic because everyone knew what he would say.

Speaking on Fox News Thursday night, former President Trump blasted what he called “softball” questions, saying Biden’s presser was like a “different world” compared to when he faced questions from the Washington press corps.

But then Trump took the opportunity to perpetuate the Big Lie.  Saying the Capitol rioters were “zero threat…and that they were hugging and kissing police and the guards.  They had great relationships.”

So in continuing to create this false reality and the big lie of election fraud, he encourages states like Georgia to change their election laws, and it could impact their ability to sway the certification of results.  Some of the measures being enacted could clear the way for partisan actors to take control of election administration, as Trump unsuccessfully urged Republicans to do in the fall.  State officials in some states will be given unprecedented influence over all manner of election decisions, including the acceptance and rejection of mail ballots, early-voting hours, poll-worker hiring and the number of polling locations, critics say.

Meanwhile, today, Dominion Voting Systems filed a $1.6 billion defamation lawsuit against Fox News, arguing the cable news giant falsely claimed in an effort to boost faltering ratings that the voting company had rigged the 2020 election.

Dominion argues that Fox News, which amplified inaccurate assertions that Dominion altered votes, “sold a false story of election fraud in order to serve its own commercial purposes, severely injuring Dominion in the process,” according to a copy of the lawsuit obtained by the AP.

Despite the fact there was no widespread fraud in the 2020 election, some Fox News employees elevated false charges that Dominion had changed votes through algorithms in its voting machines that had been created in Venezuela to rig elections for the late dictator Hugo Chavez.  On-air personalities brought on Trump allies Sidney Powell and Rudy Giuliani, who spread the claims and then amplified those claims on Fox News’ massive social media platforms.

Back to the Biden press conference….

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“President Biden finally held a formal press conference on Thursday and the answers pulled back the curtain on how he and White House chief of staff Ron Klain plan to govern.  The biggest if unsurprising news is that they are in sync with Democrats on Capitol Hill in pushing an agenda that has elated Bernie Sanders.

“One takeaway is that Mr. Biden has nothing on Donald Trump in claiming credit for the sun rising in the east.  The President boasted about achieving 100 million Covid vaccinations after 58 days, instead of his announced goal of 100 days. Anyone paying attention knew that production and distribution were on pace to meet that goal even when Mr. Trump was President.  On Thursday Mr. Biden set a new goal of 200 million doses by 100 days, which should be a layup.

“Mr. Biden also gave himself and his $1.9 trillion spending bill credit for growing economic optimism. But the 6% GDP growth estimate for 2021 that he touted was already the consensus weeks ago as vaccinations spread and state lockdowns eased.  A booming recovery and rapid job growth were teed up if Democrats did nothing.  The spending bill’s welfare incentives to stay home and not work may, if anything, slow the jobs recovery.

“The President was at his most dishonest in addressing the Senate legislative filibuster.  Asked if the 60-vote threshold is a legacy of racist Jim Crow, Mr. Biden said yes. But then what was Senator Biden doing in 2006 joining a filibuster attempt (which failed) against Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito?

“On Wednesday Sen. Ben Sasse, the Nebraska Republican, did the public service of reading Mr. Biden’s entire hour-long 2005 speech defending the filibuster on the Senate floor.

“ ‘If there is one thing this country stands for it’s fair play – not tilting the playing field in favor of one side or the other, not changing the rules unilaterally.  We play by the rules, and we win or lose by the rules,’ Mr. Sasse quoted Vintage Joe of 2005.  ‘That quintessentially American trait is abandoned in the ‘nuclear option.’ Republican Senators as well as Democratic ones have benefited from minority protections. Much more importantly, American citizens have benefited from the Senate’s check on the excesses of the majority.’

“But on Thursday Mr. Biden toed the new Democratic Party line that the filibuster is being ‘abused in a gigantic way,’ and he pointed to statistics from last year.  Readers may recall that in 2020 Democrats were in the minority and used the filibuster to block GOP proposals, including Sen. Tim Scott’s bipartisan police reform.  Were Democrats racists then, and was Mr. Biden in 2005?

“Mr. Biden’s flip-flop tells us that Democrats in Congress are preparing to break the 60-vote filibuster rule, and he’ll go along for the ride as he has on everything since Jan. 20.  He’s been less President than Prime Minister of the Pelosi-Schumer government.

“Democrats are waiting to lay the anti-filibuster groundwork politically, and Mr. Biden played his part by denouncing modest GOP state election reforms as ‘sick.’  Watch for Democrats to use the highly partisan H.R.1 to break the filibuster in the name of ‘democracy.’  That 800-page legislation would overrule 50 state election laws and reduce absentee-ballot verification and integrity.

“Mr. Biden was mildly encouraging on competition with China.  His explanation of the global conflict between democracies and autocracy is one way to frame that competition, though the U.S. will have to work with some anti-democratic governments (the Saudis, Vietnam) to counter Iran and China.

“The President’s mistake, and it could be a big one, was saying that he ‘can’t picture’ that U.S. troops will remain in Afghanistan into 2022.  That was a Trump-like play to his political base, but a minute earlier he had rightly said that Mr. Trump’s May 1 withdrawal deadline wasn’t realistic.

“The Taliban will take this as confirmation they can wait out the Yanks and NATO and start their siege of the Kabul government next year.  The White House may have to walk that back unless Mr. Biden wants to gamble on a bloodbath on his watch.

“The withdrawal message shows that Mr. Biden wants to keep the focus on his domestic agenda.  The White House is leaking that he now thinks he can ‘transform’ America, but he’ll need to break the filibuster to do it. On Thursday he all but told us what’s coming.”

Editorial / Washington Post

“In his first news conference since entering the White House, President Biden showed the most passion not on immigration, infrastructure or even the Covid-19 pandemic, but on this century’s overriding challenge: sustaining democracy against the illiberal forces that threaten it.  ‘Your children or grandchildren are going to be doing their doctoral thesis on the issue of who succeeded, autocracy or democracy,’ he declared on Thursday.  ‘That’s what’s at stake here. We’ve got to prove democracy works.’

“Unfortunately, the United States itself is a battleground in this fight.  The country – and, specifically, the Republican Party – does not appear to be as committed to democratic principles as it once was.  Following an election in which Republicans lost the presidency and the Senate, GOP state lawmakers across the country are proposing voting restrictions that will make it harder to cast ballots, particularly for Democratic constituencies, based on lies about voter fraud….

“With Republicans in total control of state government in battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia and Iowa, local Democrats have scant power to resist the onslaught.  But Congress could set national voting standards for federal elections – such as requiring all states to conduct early voting, mail-in voting, automatic voter registration or nonpartisan congressional district map-drawing.  House Democrats have already approved such a bill, known as H.R. 1.  But the bill faces a certain filibuster in the Senate, where many Republicans oppose even what should be uncontroversial measures to make voting simpler and fairer.

“So Mr. Biden argued that the filibuster, which he called a relic of the Jim Crow era, must be reformed….

“Democrats should not undertake filibuster reform lightly.  Mr. Biden rightly encouraged Senate Democrats to start cautiously, with adjustments that may reduce the ease of obstruction in the Senate.  But Mr. Biden’s plea for reform reflected a vision bigger than passing a single bill.  Filibuster reform may itself show that democracy can work.

“Chinese President Xi Jinping ‘thinks that autocracy is the wave of the future and democracy can’t function in an ever-complex world,’ Mr. Biden said.  Renovating and hardening the nation’s voting infrastructure and reforming the Senate so as to be more responsive to national challenges would show that the United States can respond to competition from Mr. Xi or any other despot who believes freedom is an unnecessary risk.”

David Mastio / USA TODAY

“It was an impressive display of something, all right.  Biden’s decades in office have given him time to practice a flip-flop disappearing act. Step 1, make what sounds like a bold promise – On Dec. 8 Biden announces that ‘my team will work to see that a majority of our schools can be opened by the end of my first 100 days.’ Step 2, when it looks like you can’t come through on that promise, pretend you didn’t make it – On Feb. 9 his press secretary says, we mean schools would have to be open ‘at least one day a week.’

“Step 3, when it turns out that schools are managing to open up on their own even before the Biden administration is able to do anything serious to help, pretend you didn’t flip-flop as he did at Thursday’s press conference saying, ‘I also set a goal before I took office of getting the majority of schools in K through eight fully open in the first 100 days.  (A) survey shows that nearly half of the K-through-eight schools are open now full time, five days a week.’

“The guy still has the political skills of a much younger man.  But that display still doesn’t change the fact that he delivered precious little leadership for the Democratic Party in the House and the Senate.

“Nancy Pelosi’s troops are delivering legislation to the Senate at a brisk clip, including on voting rights and immigration.  But the Senate is backed up by the reality that a Republican filibuster threat can derail any efforts Majority Leader Chuck Schumer might make to put those House bills into law.  Democrats are fuming, and an increasing number of them are ready to get rid of the filibuster, which allows only 40 senators to block legislation.

“What does Joe Biden offer them when offered the opportunity to put pressure on Republicans to back off?  Milquetoast support for reforms of the filibuster, sticking by his position as a senator in favor of the filibuster.  His progressive supporters are going to be furious.

“That’s another reason that this press conference will be regarded as a success in displaying Biden’s got all his faculties, but failed at advancing Democrats’ agenda.”

Editorial / New York Post

“It’s not the most popular sport, but there it was: television networks giving up afternoon airtime to a softball match.

“Stonewalled for 65 days by President Biden, reporters decided their first opportunity to question him should be used to let him monologue on his favorite topics.

“The Associated Press kicked things off by suggesting Republicans were obstructionists – how is Biden going to get around that?

“There were a number of questions about the filibuster, with the media basically begging the president to get rid of it. These weren’t inquiries; they were activism.

“Another question, paraphrased: ‘Republicans want to pass new election laws, would you like to tell us how terrible that is?’

“Most of the press couldn’t even say President Donald Trump’s name.  They called him ‘your predecessor.’

“One reporter, Yamiche Alcindor of PBS, asked a question about the border premised on the idea that ‘you’re a nice guy.’

“It’s shocking how low the bar has been set for President Biden. He seemed confused going from questioner to questioner, rambling to the point where he finally said, exhausted, ‘…anyway.’

“Biden was mostly monotone until weirdly, hitting his old stump speech, he suddenly raised his voice….

“ ‘I’m focused every day of putting one foot in front of the other.’  Dream big, man!

“Where’s Jim Acosta yelling and interrupting?

“Biden started off with a whopper, saying that the United States has performed better than any country in the world when it comes to vaccines, as if Israel doesn’t exist.

“He bragged about ‘200 million shots in 100 days, twice my original goal’ – not acknowledging that the nation was already on pace to more than meet that goal when he took office.

“ ‘Nearly half of K-8 students’ are back in in-person learning. But that’s because of Republican governors, not federal policy.  Biden has put no pressure on teachers’ unions.

“The discussion of the border that dominated the press conference was pure malarkey.  Biden took no responsibility, pretending it was a perennial problem.

“Yet Trump’s ‘remain in Mexico’ policy solved that issue, and Biden threw it out on Day 1.

“Biden’s other answers tried to have it both ways: No, we won’t be deporting poor, desperate people.  Yes, we’re not letting most people in. Which is it?

“But it didn’t matter to reporters, who were only interested in how people could be processed and let in faster – not anything about border security.

“Pull out of Afghanistan?  Punt.  Where’s your North Korea red line?  Punt. China?  Let me tell you a long, long story.

“Barely any news was made, and when it was, it was contradictory.  Biden said he’s running for reelection, then backtracked, ‘that’s my expectation.’

“There were no real changes in policy for the crisis at the border, for encouraging the economy after Covid, for getting kids back into school.  He said he was in it to create jobs, but no one asked about his cancellation of the Keystone pipeline, or restrictive regulations.

“Nor did the president dare call on any reporters who might ask a truly tough question.

“ ‘The fundamental problem is getting people some peace of mind,’ Biden said.

“This press conference did nothing to help.”

Biden Bits….

--Next week President Biden is to unveil a budget outline, as well as another massive spending plan, this one $3 trillion, which will be touted as an infrastructure program but will contain far more, much of which will never get passed in the Senate.

--The president called for tightening gun laws after a deadly shooting at a Boulder, Colorado, supermarket killed ten, but Biden knows nothing will happen in Congress, ditto on immigration reform, and he’ll focus on the Covid relief package and try to get through most of his infrastructure plan, and then hope the economy is sizzling hot come fall 2022.

Biden, asked if he had the political capital to move forward on gun-control measures said, “I hope so.  I don’t know.  I haven’t done any counting yet.” 

--Biden asked Vice President Harris to lead the administration’s diplomatic efforts with Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras to stem the surge of migrants at the southern border.

Harris said: “While we are clear that people should not come to the border now, we also understand that we will enforce the law and that we also – because we can chew gum and walk at the same time – must address the root causes that cause people to make the trek…to come here.”

Senior White House officials have been dispatched to Mexico and Guatemala this week in a bid to curtail the flow across the U.S.-Mexican border, including by leaning on the Mexican government to keep migrants from Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras, the three Northern Triangle countries, from getting to the U.S. border.

Biden played a similar role as vice president under President Obama as they faced an increase in migrants and unaccompanied minors at the border.

--Today, Biden invited 40 world leaders to a virtual summit on climate change he will host on April 22-23, including Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.   No word as yet on whether they will accept.

--Editorial / USA TODAY

“Under the Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed, longstanding research on vaccine development – including some exciting new science on using messenger RNA to train the immune system to block a virus – was turbocharged with a $14 billion federal investment to insulate six vaccine makers from financial risk.

“For all his anti-science divisiveness, Trump proved keen on throwing large sums of money at a possible solution.  And it worked. By December, emergency-use authorizations had been granted for Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.  While Pfizer didn’t take federal research-and-development funding, it was guaranteed $2 billion in vaccine sales.  Moderna’s efforts would have taken far longer without a $4.1 billion U.S. investment.

“None of this excuses Trump’s considerable failures in responding to the pandemic. There were his early deceptions about the severity of it and the botched creation and dissemination of tests.  His administration tossed out an urgent-response playbook from the previous administration.  He mocked the wearing of masks, agitated against states for following medical guidelines and undermined public health agencies for their thorough drug and vaccine reviews.  And, oh yes, he suggested looking into snake-oil remedies like injecting people with bleach.

“But the truth – straight from the shoulder – is that when this virus finally abates because of vaccinations, it will be to the credit of two presidents.

“Does President Biden need to declare a national holiday for his predecessor?

“No.

“It would be fair and honest at some point, and in keeping with Biden’s image as a straight shooter, to simply acknowledge Trump’s singular vaccine success.

“A good time might be during Biden’s rolling ‘Help is Here’ tour as he extolls the benefits of a $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief package.

“Trump’s self-aggrandizing character would never allow him to share credit with anyone.  But Biden would be the bigger man for doing so.”

The Pandemic

Fact…cases are heading back up, both in the United States and around the world. Today saw the highest death toll since February, globally, while the case count in the U.S. was the highest in a month.  Here in my state of New Jersey, we had the highest number of cases Friday since January.

What’s happening in much of Europe is scary as hell when you consider the continent has been in the grip of Covid for over a year now and you have the likes of Poland with their highest  daily death tolls since December.  It’s not just the massive failure on the part of the European Union to get the vaccines into arms.

Covid-19 death tolls, as of tonight….

World…2,778,819
USA…561,119
Brazil…307,326
Mexico…200,211
India…161,275
UK…126,515
Italy…107,526
Russia…97,017
France…94,275
Germany…76,303
Spain…75,010
Colombia…62,645
Iran…62,223
Argentina…55,235
South Africa…52,602
Poland…51,305
Peru…50,831
Indonesia…40,166
Ukraine…31,461
Turkey…30,772
Czechia…25,639
Romania…22,835
Canada…22,826
Belgium…22,816
Chile…22,587

Source: worldometers.info

U.S. daily death tolls…Sun. 455; Mon. 636; Tues. 939; Wed. 1,405; Thurs. 1,165; Fri. 1,266.

Covid Bytes

--The World Health Organization said global deaths are on the rise following weeks of steady increases in the number of new cases, owing to the more transmissible variants and the relaxation of restrictions.

More than three-quarters of all new cases and deaths were reported in Europe and the Americas.

--German Chancellor Angela Merkel extended the nation’s lockdown until April 18 and called on citizens to stay at home for five days over the Easter holidays to try to break the third wave of Covid-19.

“We are now in a very serious situation,” she told journalists at a news conference, adding that Germany was in a race against time to vaccinate its population against the coronavirus. 

Germany had started cautiously easing restrictions earlier this month, but the spread of more infectious variants has elevated the case count, prompting concerns that hospitals could soon be overstretched without further curbs.

“We are now in a very, very serious situation,” Merkel said.  “The case numbers are rising exponentially and intensive care beds are filling up again.”

--The president of the French hospital federation said on Tuesday the system could face an “unprecedented violent shock” in about three weeks if the country fails to curb its vertiginous rise in Covid cases.

“The epidemic is gathering pace, and the figures are exploding,” Frederic Valletoux, who leads the hospital group and is mayor of Fontainebleau just south of Paris.

--Fines of 5,000 pounds ($6,900) will be introduced from next week for people from England who try to travel abroad without good reason under new Covid-19 laws which last until the end of June.

In the UK, foreign holidays are currently banned under “Stay at Home” legislation which will be replaced by the new Covid-19 laws next week.  The government has said holidays could be allowed again from May 17 at the earliest.

But new warnings about a third wave of infections in Europe placed the peak holiday season in jeopardy.

The June 30 deadline, however, was for “legislative convenience” and does not pre-empt the government’s review on how and when to restart travel.  That is due on April 12.

--India is spiking anew and in Mumbai, officials have said they will roll out random rapid tests in crowded areas such as shopping centers and train stations.

Last week, India reported 100,000 more cases than the previous week.

--Brazil suffered a record 3,251 Covid deaths on Tuesday, as pot-banging protests erupted across the country during an address by President Jair Bolsonaro in which he defended his pandemic response and pledged to ramp up vaccinations. 

The new record number of daily deaths underlines the scale of Brazil’s outbreak, which is spiraling out of control thanks to a dismal vaccine rollout and a messy patchwork of public health restrictions that are pushing the country’s hospitals to the breaking point.

In Sao Paulo, I saw where 60% of those in ICUs are also between the ages of 30 and 50, to give you a sense of the power of the variants.

Bolsonaro is under mounting pressure to control the outbreak, after repeatedly playing down the virus, sowing doubts about vaccines and fighting state and local lockdown measures.

Today, Brazil set a new record for deaths…3,600!

--AstraZeneca claimed that its Covid vaccine was found to be 79% effective in a U.S. study, which was designed to help shore up global confidence in the vaccine, developed jointly by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford.  Many nations in Europe had temporarily suspended the use of the shot over concerns about possible rare side effects.

The trial, involving more than 32,000 participants, was the largest test of its kind.  All good.

Until it wasn’t.  The next day, Tuesday, U.S. health officials said AstraZeneca’s data was outdated and the Data and Safety Monitoring Board said it was concerned the company may have provided an incomplete view of the efficacy.

AstraZeneca has aimed to file an application with the Food and Drug Administration in the coming weeks.

So then on Wednesday, AstraZeneca reiterated its vaccine was very effective at preventing the disease, saying in a new release that the vaccine was 76 percent effective, based on more recent data.  It turns out the company had ignored dozens of recently confirmed Covid cases that had cropped up in trial volunteers before mid-February.

The monitoring board said in a letter to the company and federal officials: “Decision like this are what erode public trust in the scientific process.”  The board said its modeling showed the vaccine might have a lower efficacy rate – between 69 and 74 percent – if the Covid-19 cases in question were included in the analysis.

So while all this was going on, AstraZeneca was in the middle of a controversy between Britain and the European Union. The European Commission ruled that the company must deliver its contracted vaccines to the EU before it can export doses elsewhere in the world.

“Companies have to honor their contract to the European Union before they export to other regions in the world.  That is of course the case with AstraZeneca,” EC president Ursula von der Leyen told journalists following an online EU summit.

At issue, in part, is a stockpile of AstraZeneca vaccines, said to number up to 30 million doses, coveted by both the UK and EU.

The fact is the EU has totally botched its vaccine rollout, unlike the United States and Britain, who did all the right things in development and then procurement.  The two threw money at the project, hoping some companies would hit a home run, while the EU haggled over the price per dose.  Plus you have the Union’s bureaucracy to deal with.

--Shares in Rite Aid plunged over 20% on Thursday after the healthcare company said its fourth-quarter results were significantly affected by a weak cough, cold and flu season and the company continued to see the effects related to the pandemic.  It revised its full-year earnings forecast downward significantly as a result, with comp-store sales declining a sizable 5.6%.  The company saw a 37% decrease in its cough, cold and flu-related product categories.

So why am I discussing Rite Aid in this segment?  Because if you still don’t believe in the efficacy of masks, along with social distancing and the use of hand sanitizers and/or washing your hands frequently, this is Exhibit 1 and 1A, non-believers.

--According to research by Andrew Atkeson, economics professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, U.S. Covid-19 fatalities could have stayed under 300,000 if by last May the country had adopted widespread mask, social distancing, and testing protocols while awaiting a vaccine.

He likened the state-by-state, patchwork response to a car’s cruise control.  As the virus worsened people hunkered down, but when the situation improved restrictions were dropped and people were less careful, with the result that “the equilibrium level of daily deaths…remains in a relatively narrow band” until the vaccine arrived.

Atkeson projected a final fatality level of around 670,000 as vaccines spread and the crisis subsides.

Others, such as University of California, Berkeley economics professor Christine Romer, along with the likes of former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, criticized the spending authorized since last spring, including the Biden team’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan.

While Romer said the government’s more than $5 trillion in pandemic-related spending won’t likely trigger a fiscal crisis, she worries that higher-priority investments will be deferred because of allocations to initiatives like the Paycheck Protection Program.

“Spending on programs such as unemployment compensation and public health was exactly what was called for,” Romer wrote in her paper, but other aspects, particularly the generous one-time payments to families, were “largely ineffective and wasteful.”

--In an interview with CNN’s Sanjay Gupta, former CDC director Robert Redfield said he believes the coronavirus originated in a Wuhan lab and began spreading as early as September 2019.

The origin remains a matter of dispute.  Redfield’s view isn’t held by a majority of health officials.  The WHO releases its report on the virus’ origins this month.

Redfield offered zero proof and his ‘musings’ were incredibly irresponsible.

--Rutgers University is the first school to mandate its students all get vaccinated before coming back to campus in the fall (with a few exceptions).

Wall Street and the Economy

Today is day four of the great Suez Canal blockade, as a huge backlog of ships builds around the crucial waterway, blocked by one of the world’s largest container ships, Ever Given, that ran aground as a result of a sandstorm.

Work to refloat and free up oceangoing carriers hauling at least $10 billion of oil and consumer goods has been fruitless as I go to post, with tugs and diggers having so far failed to budge the vessel, with some experts saying the crisis could drag on for days, maybe weeks.

At about a quarter mile long and weighing in at 200,000 tons, the sheer size of the vessel is overwhelming efforts to dig it out.

There is a chance the ship could be dislodged on Sunday or Monday, when the tide will reach a peak, but this is increasingly unlikely.

In a joint appearance before a Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck an optimistic note on the economy.  “It is going to be a very, very strong year in the most likely case,” Powell said in response to a senator’s question on the economic outlook.

Tuesday, Powell had told the House Financial Services Committee: “The recovery has progressed more quickly than generally expected and looks to be strengthening.  But the recovery is far from complete, so, at the Fed, we will continue to provide the economy the support that it needs for as long as it takes.”

Powell added: “We welcome this progress but will not lose sight of the millions of Americans who are still hurting, including lower-wage workers in the services sector, African Americans, Hispanics and other minority groups that have been especially hard hit.”

Addressing the Senators, Powell also indicated he isn’t concerned about a recent rise in long-term bond yields, saying they appear to reflect growing optimism about the economy’s prospects.

“It seems that rates have responded to news about vaccination and ultimately about growth,” Powell said.  “And that has been an orderly process.”

Powell said he “would be concerned if it were not an orderly process or if conditions were to tighten to the point where they might threaten our recovery.”  But he reiterated the Fed’s view that the recent increase has come from “extraordinarily low levels…back up toward a level that we’re more likely to see.”

Republican Sen. Pat Toomey (Penn.) questioned the Fed’s plan to maintain easy-money policies until the recovery progresses further.

“The Fed has signaled that its dovish monetary policy is here indefinitely,” Toomey said, noting a recent uptick in commodity prices and a brightening outlook for economic growth.  “I worry that the Fed will be behind the curve when inflation picks up.”

Powell reiterated that he doesn’t expect supply-chain bottlenecks or an expected surge in consumer demand later this year as the economy reopens to change long-term price trends.

“In the near term, we do expect, as many forecasters do, that there will be some upward pressure on prices,” Powell said.  “Long term we think that the inflation dynamics that we’ve seen around the world for a quarter of a century are essentially intact. We’ve got a world that’s short of demand with very low inflation…and we think that those dynamics haven’t gone away overnight and won’t.”

But the massive stimulus package now beginning to find its ways into consumers and business owners pockets, including a $300 weekly supplement for unemployment aid, could keep jobless claims elevated as some people reapply for benefits.

A year after the pandemic crashed into the U.S., jobless claims remain above their 665,000 peak during the 2007-09 Great Recession, though this week coming in at a greatly improved 684,000 (the lowest in a year) vs. a revised 781,000 the week before.  Pre-pandemic, the claims figure was consistently in the 200,000-250,000 max range.  Employment remains 9.5 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.

But while it will take up to two years, by most estimates, to recover all the 22.4 million jobs lost last March and April, the monthly jobs numbers should soon start to pick up in a big way…with some months at 700,000 to one million.

We also had a final look at fourth-quarter GDP and it was revised upward to 4.3% from 4.1% the month before, though a sharp deceleration from the record 33.4% annualized rate logged in the third quarter.  The economy is forecast to grow by as much as 7.5% in the first quarter, and after all this week’s data, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for Q1 is at 4.7%.  Growth for all of 2021 is expected to top 7%, which would be the fastest pace since 1984 and would follow last year’s 3.5% contraction, the worst performance in 74 years.

GDP (annualized)

Q4 2020…4.3 percent
Q3 2020…33.4
Q2 2020… -31.4%
Q1 2020… -5.0%

Q4 2019… 2.4
Q3 2019… 2.6
Q2 2019… 1.5
Q1 2019… 2.9

Yup, 2020 was a helluva year if you like rollercoasters (which I don’t).

As for the other economic data of the week, February existing home sales fell 6.6% to 6.22 million (annualized), well below expectations, as were new home sales for the month, 775,000 vs. a consensus of 879,000.

“Despite the drop in home sales for February – which I would attribute to historically-low inventory – the market is still outperforming pre-pandemic levels,” said Lawrence Yun of  the National Association of Realtors.

But he cautioned of a possible slowdown in growth in the coming months as higher prices and rising mortgage rates cut into home affordability.

“I still expect this year’s sales to be ahead of last year’s, and with more Covid-19 vaccinations being distributed and available to larger shares of the population, the nation is on the cusp of returning to a sense of normalcy,” Yun said.  “Many Americans have been saving money and there’s a strong possibility that once the country fully reopens, those reserves will be unleashed on the economy.”

The median existing-home price for all housing types in February was $313,000, up 15.8% from February 2020, as prices rose in every region.  February’s national price jump marks 108 straight months of year-over-year gains.

In other developments, February durable goods orders fell unexpectedly, -1.1%, -0.9% ex-transportation; while today, we had important figures for personal income in February, -7.1%, vs. a prior +10.1%, which was due to the December stimulus checks; while consumption came in -1.0%.

These figures are highly volatile depending on the timing of the various relief packages and so you expect March and April to be up, most likely, significantly, as the checks hit most Americans.

But the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation barometer, the personal consumption expenditures index, was up only 1.4% on core year-over-year.

Finally, on the issue of the debt, Chairman Powell said in an interview Thursday with National Public Radio that the federal government can manage its debt at current levels but fiscal-policy makers should seek to slow its growth since the economy is stronger.

“Given the low level of interest rates, there’s no issue about the United States being able to service its debt at this time or in the foreseeable future.”

The budget deficit is expected to rise to 102.3% of GDP by the end of the current fiscal year (Sept. 30), up from 79.2% at the end of 2019.

“There will come a time – and that time will be when the economy is back to full employment, and taxes are rolling in, and we’re in a strong economy again – when it will be appropriate to return to the issue of getting back on a sustainable fiscal path,” Powell said.  “But that time is not now.”

Europe and Asia

We had flash PMI readings for March in the eurozone, with the composite for the EA19 at 52.5 (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction) vs. 48.8 in February, an 8-month high.  Manufacturing was a robust 63.0 vs. 57.6, a record high since IHS Markit started the series in 1997.  The service sector reading was 48.8 vs. 45.7, reflecting the ongoing Covid restrictions.

Germany had a manufacturing figure of 68.5! vs. 61.7 last month, with services at 50.8 vs. 45.7, though the survey was taken largely before the latest lockdown orders in the country.

France had a manufacturing reading of 57.6 vs. March’s 53.6, services 47.8 vs. 45.6.

Separately, the UK had a flash March manufacturing number of 55.6 vs. 50.5, with services a solid 56.8 vs. 49.5.

Chris Williamson / IHS Markit

“The eurozone economy beat expectations in March, showing a much better than anticipated expansion thanks mainly to a record surge in manufacturing output.

“The service sector remains the economy’s weak spot, but even here the rate of decline moderated in March as companies benefited from the manufacturing sector’s upturn, customers adapted to life during a pandemic and prospects remained relatively upbeat.

“The outlook has deteriorated, however, amid rising Covid-19 infection rates and new lockdown measures.  This two-speed nature of the economy will therefore likely persist for some time to come, as manufacturers benefit from a recovery in global demand but consumer-facing service companies remain constrained by social distancing restrictions.

“The surge in demand for manufactured goods is meanwhile stretching supply chains to an unprecedented extent, in turn pushing costs up at the fastest rate for a decade.  These cost pressures will likely feed through to higher consumer price inflation in coming months.”

Brexit:  Just a note on food delivery to Northern Ireland, post-Brexit.  It’s a mess.  A leading food services company, Lynas, told parliament that British suppliers are deciding that trading in Northern Ireland is not worth the hassles of extra Brexit bureaucracy.

Prior to the Northern Ireland protocol, Andrew Lynas, managing director of the company, said there were no checks on something like mozzarella cheese from a longstanding supplier in England, but there are eight separate processes under the protocol.

The movement of agri-food goods are particularly tightly regulated.

One Great Britain supplier Lynas uses to supply Northern Ireland schools is charging him $200 per load to cover administrative costs.  He’s lucky he has a fixed contract.

Mr. Lynas said, “If he’s got orders from a Welsh supplier, a Scottish supplier and someone in Birmingham, and he gets my order, what position do you think my order is going to go in?  Unfortunately, we know it’s going to come fourth.”  [Irish Times]

Turning to Asia…China may benefit to the tune of a $60 billion boost in exports to the United States over 2021-22 amid “rampant demand,” as Americans snap up computers, household equipment and clothing flush with stimulus checks, as one exporter headquartered in Nanjing told the South China Morning Post.

The U.S. fiscal boost will bring huge spillovers for the global economy, especially China, the world’s biggest exporter.  According to Allianz, overall, around $360bn of the stimulus package will be spent on imports.

Canada and Mexico will see the biggest impact relative to the size of their economies, but the stimulus could increase China’s GDP by 0.5 percent over the next year, according to the  Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

In Japan, we had flash PMI readings for March, with the composite at 48.3; manufacturing 52.0 and services 46.5…basically in line with February’s figures.

Street Bytes

--Stocks finished mixed on the week, though the Dow Jones and S&P 500 closed at all-time highs today, while Nasdaq finished down on the week.  The Dow rose 1.4% to 33072 and the S&P gained 1.6%, but Nasdaq lost 0.6%, making it five losing weeks in six amid the rotation out of tech and into cyclical stocks.

Optimism over the vaccine rollout, stimulus and reopening continues to outweigh any concerns, such as a surge in the coronavirus in much of Europe.  It also helped at week’s end that the Federal Reserve said temporary limits on dividend payments and share buybacks by the banks will end for most lenders after June 30.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 0.03%  2-yr. 0.14%  10-yr. 1.67%  30-yr. 2.37%

The bond market settled down, yields on the long end falling this week.  The core PCE figure noted above helped.  Yields overseas also fell.

--Crude oil was all over the map this week.

Saudi Aramco’s chief executive said on Monday the state-controlled energy company was optimistic about the oil market and bullish about the demand recovery.  “We are very bullish about oil demand going forward,” Chief Executive Amin Nasser told an analyst call.

Tuesday, oil cratered 6% as concerns over new pandemic curbs and slow vaccine rollouts in Europe compounded additional crude volumes.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ended down $3.80 to $57.75.  Extended lockdowns in Europe are being driven by the threat of a third wave.

We are awash in crude, inventories rising again this week, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.

Wednesday, crude rose 5% after word the large container ship was blocking the Suez Canal.  WTI added $3 to $60.75.

And with the Ever Given still wreaking chaos at week’s end, WTI closed today at $60.80.

--Discount air carrier behemoth Ryanair said it will run around 2,300 flights every day this summer, according to CEO Michael O’Leary, with passengers asked to wear face masks on all flights potentially until 2022.

The schedule will mean that Ryanair is running at about 80 percent of its usual capacity, with British people desperate to get back to European beaches, according to O’Leary.

The company has taken a massive hit over the last year, carrying only around 33 million in the year to February, compared to 154 million in the same period a year earlier.

The airline also said it expected to take delivery of 16 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft before the coming summer season, lower than the previous guidance of up to 24 it had given in February.

--But stocks involved in the travel industry, from airlines to cruise operators, took it on the chin this week amid renewed virus curbs in Europe, including an extended lockdown in Germany through April 18, after Chancellor Angela Merkel reversed course on having an extended Easter holiday.  It’s also not good when Paris is locked down anew, as well as parts of northern France.

Regarding the cruise industry, the “Big 3” – Carnival Corp., Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. – continue to take major financial hits.

The companies raised cash with huge bond and stock issues in 2020, revenue deeply depressed, and the big 3 has told investors it has enough cash to make it to the 2022 cruising season.  But it costs a lot of money to stand still – Carnival telling investors in February it expected to burn through an average of $600 million in cash a month just to keep vessels maintained, sustain corporate operations and invest in preparations to return to sea.

I was reading a story about the economic impact around the ports, like at Port Canaveral, with all the hotels and restaurants servicing the business basically closed.  For example, you have a baggage porter, who made $27-an-hour…now unemployed for a year…waiting in food lines.  It breaks your heart.

And when it comes to the airlines, domestic carriers in the United States say their cash burn rates are dwindling as travel picks up, plus they received another bailout to cover payrolls, so they’ll survive.  But overseas, the European airlines need a recovery in time for the third quarter, which as Air France-KLM CEO Ben Smith said is the critical quarter “for the majority of European carriers” in order to make it through the year.  European carriers are pressing for an end to quarantines it says crush demand.  They also want the rapid adoption of so-called vaccine passports.

The International Air Transport Association said carriers would need as much as $80 billion more in government money this year without a rapid recovery.

--TSA checkpoint travel numbers vs. 2019

3/25…64 percent of 2019 levels
3/24…54
3/23…44
3/22…54
3/21…69* …post-pandemic record 1,543,115 passengers
3/20…53
3/19…58
3/18…61
3/17…52

--Auto makers and dealers entered the year hoping to restock dealerships depleted by pandemic-related factory shutdowns last spring.  Instead, parts shortages and other factors disrupting production have extended the inventory crunch, and auto executives said it could be months before relief comes.

So for buyers, slimmer pickings, higher prices and longer waits.

With pent-up demand, continued low interest rates and a new round of stimulus checks, consumers were expected to flock to showrooms in the coming months as the industry’s prime selling season gets under way.

But a monthslong shortage of semiconductors has forced auto makers to cut production of even their most-lucrative vehicles.  Winter storms in Texas last month then disrupted plastics production, leading to shortages of seat foam and other materials, car makers and suppliers have said.  A backup at West Coast ports is delaying vehicle-parts shipments from Asia.  And now you have the Suez Canal situation, though that’s more about Europe and Asia.

As I noted recently, Honda Motor and Toyota are the latest to halt some production in North America.

--Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the company would accept Bitcoin as payment for cars in the United States.  Tesla will hold the digital currency, rather than convert payments to dollars, and handle the crypto transactions internally, Musk said.

That means when someone buys a Tesla with Bitcoin, the price of the car could well rise – or fall- over time.  In other words, Tesla is turning one-time payments into assets with shifting value, or, essentially, investments.

Separately, Tesla said it would never provide the U.S. government with data collected by its vehicles in China or other countries, Elon Musk told a high-level conference in China.

The comment came after the Chinese government’s decision to restrict the use of Tesla cars by military personnel or employees of key state-owned companies, as first reported by the Wall Street Journal last weekend.  Beijing had acted out of concern that sensitive data such as images taken by the cars’ multiple cameras could be sent to the U.S., according to people familiar with the matter.

So addressing the government-backed China Development Forum in Beijing, Musk said that no U.S. or Chinese company would risk gathering sensitive or private data and then sharing it with their home government.

“Whether it’s Chinese or U.S., the negative effects if a commercial company did engage in spying – the negative effects for that company would be extremely bad,” Musk said.  If Tesla used its cars to spy in any country, he said, it would shut down everywhere, which he called “a very strong incentive for us to be very confidential.”

--Anger with Nike Inc. erupted on Chinese social media late on Wednesday after China’s netizens spotted a statement from the sporting goods giant saying it was “concerned” about reports of forced labor in Xinjiang and it does not use cotton from the region.

Topics around the Nike statement were among the highest trending on China’s Twitter-like social media Weibo on Thursday, and the social media backlash had a wider fallout.

Popular Chinese actor Wang Yibo terminated his contract as a representative for Nike in response to social media criticism over the company’s Xinjiang statement, his agency said on Weibo on Thursday.

It was unclear when Nike had put out the statement, which did not have a date on it.

--Intel Corp. announced a sweeping restructuring effort to revive the semiconductor giant with a plan that mixes increased outsourcing with a commitment to spend $20 billion on new factories that could help address the chip shortage.

New CEO Pat Gelsinger said Tuesday that Intel would rely more heavily on third-party chip-making partners, including for some of its most cutting-edge processors, starting in 2023.

But he said Intel wasn’t abandoning its historic roots of being both a designer and manufacturer of chips and would retain most production in-house.  The company, he said, also is renewing efforts to make chips for others and targeting customers such as Apple Inc. and chip rival Qualcomm Inc.

Intel plans to build two new chip factories at existing facilities in Arizona, with production due to start in 2024.  Intel also said it would be detailing further expansion plans in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere.  [Separately, I saw in the Irish Times that Intel said it would create 1,600 jobs and more than double the manufacturing space at its Irish operation as part of its global plan.]

President Biden pledged last month to fix the chip shortage issue and ordered a review to identify ways to strengthen supply chains in critical fields such as semiconductors.

The U.S. now accounts for about 12% of global semiconductor-manufacturing capacity, down from 37% in 1990 as other countries got into the game.

Under its enhanced outsourcing plan, Intel would ask others – including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics – to make crucial components of its chips.

Intel is looking for sales in 2021 of $76.6 billion, above current Street forecasts, which would nonetheless be below 2020’s record level of $77.9bn.

--Southern California home prices reached an all-time high in February as buyers competed amid a shortage of homes for sale, adding to signs that pandemic home-buying trends are extending into 2021.

The six-county region’s median sales price jumped nearly 15% from a year earlier to $619,750, according to data from real estate firm DQNews.

Sales surged 17.6% from February 2020.

The data show that the increase in demand, however, has not been met by a surge in listings, leading to bidding wars and subsequent higher prices.

In Los Angeles County, the median sales price rose 14.3% to $708,500 in February vs. a year ago, while sales climbed 19.1%.

In Orange County, the median sales price rose 9.6% to a record $820,000, while sales climbed 13%.

In Riverside County, the median sales price rose 16.5% to a record $465,000, while sales climbed 18.3%.

And in San Diego County, the median sales price rose 14.6% to a record $672,750, while sales climbed 13.8%.  [Los Angeles Times]

--Canadian Pacific is acquiring Kansas City Southern for $25 billion in a cash-and-shares deal, creating a rail network from Canada to Mexico that farm groups say could smooth the flow of their goods to market.  The deal, subject to approval by the U.S. Surface Transportation Board, would combine CP’s cross-Canada network, which stretches as far south as Kansas City, Missouri, with its U.S. rival’s network, which extends south into Mexico.

Canadian Pacific CEO Keith Creel said in a statement: “This transaction will be transformative for North America, providing significant positive impacts for our respective employees, customers, communities and shareholders… This will create the first U.S.-Mexico-Canada railroad.”

Creel will continue to serve as CEO of the combined company, which will be headquartered in Calgary.

Mexico is a major buyer of U.S. corn and Canadian canola, so there is one example of how the deal opens up different opportunities.

Because there is no overlap in the networks, and with the combination increasing industry price competition, it is unlikely to face regulatory roadblocks.

Kansas City shares jumped 13% to $252.80, but were still well short of the offer price of $275, which is due to the fact the deal won’t close until mid-2022.  Shares of CP fell 5%.

--General Mills reported higher fiscal third-quarter earnings on Wednesday, with sales bolstered by pandemic-fueled demand, but the Cheerios and Pillsbury dough maker sees its 2021 adjusted operating profit margin being largely flat with that of 2020 due to rising costs and so the shares fell 4% on the news.

Revenue for the quarter ended Feb. 28 was $4.52 billion, up from $4.18 billion, ahead of expectations, as the company attributed the growth to increased demand for at-home food products.

North American sales rose 9% over last year’s quarter to $2.73 billion, while sales climbed 15% in Europe and Australia.  Latin America and Asia sales rose 12%.  Sales of pet products increased 14%, while sales of convenience store and food service products fell 10%.

The company said the pandemic will continue to drive consumer demand for its products through the end of the fiscal year, with GIS expecting full-year sales growth of approximately 3.5%.

But, again, the company expects the profit margin to be impacted by rising costs.

--Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Twitter’s Jack Dorsey and Google CEO Sundar Pichai were grilled by the House Energy and Commerce Committee on Thursday, with Zuckerberg making the case for updating Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act while defending his firm from criticism that it has failed to snuff out misinformation.

“We believe that connectivity and togetherness are more powerful ideals than division and discord and that technology can be part of the solution to the challenges our society is facing.  And we are ready to work with you to move beyond hearings and get started on real reform.”

Congressional Democrats are ramping up scrutiny on Silicon Valley in the wake of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, for which they say social media firms bear some responsibility.

Republicans are also calling for changes to Section 230, a 1996 law that protects online platforms from legal liability for content their users post.  And they raised concerns about Big Tech being biased against conservatives and social media fueling youth suicides.

“Self-regulation has come to the end of its road,” said Rep. Janice Schakowsky (D-Ill.).  “The regulation that we seek should not attempt to limit constitutionally protected freedom of speech, but it must hold platforms accountable when they are used to incite violence and hatred.”

--Postmaster General Louis DeJoy, among the most hated people in America, announced proposals to improve reliability, modernize operations and financially overhaul the cash-strapped agency.  The plan hinges on legislative relief long sought by the Postal Service to ease its financial burdens for retiree benefits as well as spending to build out the network to capitalize on the growth of e-commerce.

DeJoy projects the moves would help the agency break even over the next decade, through a combination of boosting its package business and reducing costs to account for the precipitous decline in mail volumes.  The agency has lost money in each of the past 14 years, including a $9.2 billion net loss in its latest fiscal year.

But most of us are going to see higher prices and a longer window to deliver first-class mail.

What I don’t understand is how mail delivery went from poor to worse after Christmas.  It was better last spring and summer, even with all the absences among employees due to Covid.

--Britain’s Nationwide Building Society has told all its 13,000 office-based staff to work from anywhere in the country, in one of the clearest signs yet firms are making permanent the remote working arrangements put in place during the pandemic.

The lender, Britain’s second-biggest provider of home loans, said on Thursday it will not renew the leases on its offices in its hometown of Swindon in the southwest of England but will retain its headquarters there along with other regional hubs.

Nationwide’s move goes even further than some British banks such as HSBC and Lloyds, which have said they will cut office space but are likely still to require staff to come in on some days.

A bad sign for America’s big cities in particular, even as in the case of New York, Goldman Sachs is pressing to bring its workers back sooner than later.

--The trend to move to Florida among the New York area’s business elite would appear to be ebbing.  Hedge fund titan David Tepper, for example, moved back to New Jersey awhile back, despite the fact he and his wife just bought a $73 million Palm Beach mansion.

“The main problem with moving to Florida is that you have to live in Florida,” said Jason Mudrick, who oversees $3 billion at Mudrick Capital Management and has resided in Manhattan for more than two decades.

“New York has the smartest, most driven people, the best culture, the best restaurants and the best theaters,” Mudrick said.  “Anyone moving to Florida to save a little money loses out on all of that.”

It’s the talk of vaccines and a return to normalcy that has stopped the exodus, and we’ll see if it truly reverses itself.

According to Crain’s New York Business and Bloomberg, U.S. Postal Service data paints a different picture: Last year 2,246 people filed for a permanent address change from Manhattan to Miami-Dade County, and 1,741 went to Palm Beach County. Together they account for 9% of the out-of-state moves from the borough, up from 6% in 2019.

Still, even a small number of departures by the ultrawealthy can have an outsize impact. The top 1% of New Yorkers earned a combined $133.3 billion in 2018 and accounted for 42.5% of local income taxes collected, according to the city’s Independent Budget Office.

More Manhattanites relocated to Jersey City and Hoboken in New Jersey, as well as Chicago, Los Angeles and Philadelphia, than they did to either Miami or Palm Beach.  Except for Philadelphia, the other destinations are in some of the highest-taxed states.

The main drivers for people to stay in New York are access to top private schools and a bigger pool of young professionals to fill jobs, according to interviews with several hedge fund executives.

Such as in a move by Alliance-Bernstein Holdings, which moved its headquarters to Nashville from Manhattan in 2018.  Although more than 1,000 jobs at the $688 billion money manager are transferring out of the city, high-profile positions such as private wealth and portfolio management stayed – a reflection of where the firm’s clients are.

So we’ll see where we are in a year or so.  I’ll say if Broadway makes a big splashy return next September (which Mayor Bill de Blasio said will be the case this week), that will play a major role in getting people back to New York.  More people on the streets is also a key to reducing crime.

--Brad K. passed along a note from a Pool Industry newsletter.

“The pool industry may be facing a dramatic reduction in products made from plastics. The aftermath of February’s brutal Texas storm and power outages resulted in widespread damage – crippling domestic plastic production.

“The power outages brought Texas’ petrochemical complex, America’s hub for the raw materials for plastic, to its knees.”

Various manufacturers, such as for pool ladders, steps and spa accessories, simply can’t secure enough plastic materials to make their products.  One New York-based manufacturer of same, which I don’t want to name, has been forced to lay off 40 employees.

Just a window into the supply chain issues increasingly felt across many sectors.  The shortages of plastics impact the production of items such as auto parts and computers.

My friend, in the steel pool business, said he was having to accept a 30% increase for the second quarter from his mill.  And demand is through the roof, but with the weak supply chain. 

--Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. has agreed to buy Investors Business Daily from O’Neil Capital Management for $275 million, continuing the legacy media company’s push into digital publishing.

News Corp. said it planned to fold the Los Angeles-based business, which includes the Investor’s website, into its Dow Jones subsidiary, which also publishes the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch and Barron’s.  IBD, which currently has about 130 employees, will remain a stand-alone brand within News Corp.

Founded in 1984 by entrepreneur William J. O’Neil, IBD developed proprietary data and research tools to identify top-performing stocks.

--We learned this week that Kent Taylor, founder and CEO of Louisville-based Texas Roadhouse, took his own life last Thursday after struggling with debilitating repercussions of Covid-19 his family said this week.

“After a battle with post-Covid related symptoms, including severe tinnitus, Kent Taylor took his own life,” the family said in a company-issued statement.  “Kent battled and fought hard like the former track champion that he was, but the suffering that greatly intensified in recent days became unbearable.”

Tinnitus is often described as a ringing in the ears that others usually can’t hear.

--Shares in GameStop Corp., the video game retailer at the center of this year’s Reddit-driven trading frenzy, returned to profitability in its fourth quarter and reported a 175% growth in e-commerce sales, initially sending shares up as much as 9% in extended trading on Tuesday.

The stock has become one of the hottest and most visible “meme stocks” followed on social media.

Net sales nonetheless fell to $2.12 billion in the fourth quarter, the ninth straight quarter of declines, missing expectations, ditto on earnings, though comparable sales growth at 6.5% marked the company’s return to positive quarterly like-for-like revenue growth amid Covid-19-mandated closures around the world, particularly in Europe.  But the company missed expectations on comps as well.  The company estimated 27% of stores in Europe were forced to close due to local government restrictions.

The company closed, permanently, a net 232 stores in the quarter which took the total to 693 in the year just ended.

The 175% surge in global e-commerce sales now represents 34% of group revenue versus 12% a year ago.

GameStop’s guidance for 2021 remains suspended.

But then the shares plummeted after the retailer said it might cash in on a meteoric rise in its share price to fund its e-commerce expansion, specifically, a possible $100 million share sales that it originally announced in December. 

The stock, which closed last Friday at $200, fell to $116 yesterday, and rocketed today up to $218, before closing the week at $180.

As Gen. Anthony McAuliffe said in defending Bastogne, during the Battle of the Bulge, “Nuts.”

Foreign Affairs

Israel:  After Israel’s fourth election in two years, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud has emerged as the largest party with most of the vote counted, but he still doesn’t have a clear path to a 61-seat majority needed to form a coalition.

The anti-Netanyahu bloc, an assortment of left, right and centrist factions, was also just shy of a majority.  The Islamist United Arab List party, headed by Mansour Abbas, and Naftali Bennett’s Yamina have not yet declared their support for either bloc.

Editorial / Washington Post

“Israel’s fourth election in two years is being widely described as having produced yet another political impasse, in which no stable governing coalition is possible.  From one perspective, that’s an odd way to describe an outcome that gave right-of-center parties more than 70 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, and that also made possible a center-right coalition excluding religious parties – the formula most Israelis say they favor.

“If Israel is headed for weeks or months of political uncertainty, and possibly a fifth election, it is because of the polarizing effect of one man, incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.  The longest-serving leader in Israel’s history has so alienated some of his own natural constituencies – in part through corrupt behavior for which he is currently on trial – that he is unable to unite the center-right majority that voters chose.  Yet he refuses to give up office, and his own cynical maneuvering may well prevent anyone else from doing so.

“Mr. Netanyahu, who bonded tightly with President Donald Trump, followed his example by claiming ‘a giant victory’ despite the failure of his Likud party and its allies to gain a majority.  And it could be that a politician who has survived numerous previous setbacks will again contrive a way to remain in power.  That might involve courting a new Islamist party representing Israeli Arabs, while simultaneously embracing openly racist and homophobic Jewish extremists.  Mr. Netanyahu has shown that he will do virtually anything to avoid leaving office at a time when he is being prosecuted on bribery charges – a rap he hopes to beat with legislation granting himself immunity.

“His supporters claim the country still needs him, pointing to his supervision of Israel’s world-beating coronavirus vaccination campaign, diplomatic breakthroughs with Arab states, containment of threats from Syria and Iran, and strong economic stewardship. All are real accomplishments, but Mr. Netanyahu also has compromised Israeli democracy with assaults on judicial independence, civil society and the media, and he has impeded for a decade the peace settlement Israel most needs, with the Palestinians.  He also politicized U.S.-Israeli relations by aligning himself so closely with Mr. Trump and the Republican Party; polls show that Mr. Netanyahu’s favorability rating among U.S. Democrats is abysmal.”

So we wait to see what emerges over the coming weeks.  Imagine Netanyahu staying in power with his Likud party winning only 30 of 120 seats, though this is the largest group in the fractured legislature.  It still gives him the upper hand in forming a coalition.

Some are rightfully concerned the chaos and uncertainty will impede the country’s recovery from the coronavirus crisis even as it rolled out the world’s most extensive vaccination program.  Israel’s unemployment rate is still 16.7%, down from a pandemic high of 27%.

Iran: China and the United States agreed at last week’s Alaska summit that Iran was an issue they could work on together, and this week, Beijing told Washington there have been “new developments” in the Iran nuclear situation and urged it to restart talks.

Chinese foreign vice-minister Ma Zhaoxu’s plea to the U.S. special envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, came with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi due to arrive in Iran.

“There are some new changes in the current Iranian nuclear situation.  All parties should increase their sense of urgency,” Ma was quoted as saying by a Chinese foreign ministry statement on Thursday.  “The United States should take practical actions as soon as possible.  The U.S. and Iran should meet each other halfway and re-enter the deal.”

Separately, U.S. intelligence officials have said that Iran has made threats against Fort McNair, an Army post in Washington, D.C., and against the Army’s vice chief of staff.

Communications intercepted by the National Security Agency in January showed that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard discussed mounting “USS Cole-style attacks” against the Army post, referring to the October 2000 suicide attack in which a small boat pulled up alongside the Navy destroyer in the Yemeni port of Aden and exploded, killing 17 sailors.

The intelligence also revealed threats to kill Gen. Joseph M. Martin and plans to infiltrate and surveil the installation, according to officials.

Afghanistan: As noted above, President Biden said the May 1 deadline for removing all U.S. troops from Afghanistan is not possible.  “We will leave. The question is when we leave,” the president said.

When asked if the United States will have troops in Afghanistan a year from now, Biden said, “I can’t picture that being the case.”

“It’s not my intention to stay there for a long time, the question is how and under what circumstance.

But removing troops by May 1, “just in terms of tactical reasons,” is unrealistic, with any final decision made in consultation with our allies.

This is not going to end well.

China: The U.S., European Union, UK and Canada banded together to sanction Chinese officials over alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang on Monday, a potentially dramatic escalation in tensions with Beijing and a clear sign that the Biden administration plans to wield its alliances as a powerful tool to counter an increasingly assertive China.

“Amid growing international condemnation, the PRC [People’s Republic of China] continues to commit genocide and crimes against humanity in Xinjiang,” said Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

“These actions demonstrate our ongoing commitments to working multilaterally to advance respect for human rights and shining a light on those in the PRC government and CCP responsible for these atrocities,” he said.

The EU announced its sanctions first, naming four officials and one entity in Xinjiang – the bloc’s first sanctions targeting Chinese officials since the aftermath of the bloody Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989.  China hit back almost immediately, slapping sanctions on 10 European individuals and four entities, including diplomats, officials, academics and politicians.

Britain’s Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said the sanctions were a result of “intense diplomacy” between the countries involved.

“The evidence of widespread human rights abuses in Xinjiang cannot be ignored – including mass detention and surveillance, reports of torture and forced sterilization,” Raab said.

China then sanctioned organizations and individuals in the United Kingdom over what it called “lies and disinformation,” after Britain imposed sanctions for human rights abuses in the region.

The Chinese foreign ministry said in a statement that it sanctioned four entities and nine individuals, including the former Conservative party leader Iain Duncan Smith.  Duncan Smith said he would wear the sanction like a “badge of honor.”

“It’s our duty to call out the Chinese Gov’t’s human rights abuses in #HongKong & the genocide of the #Uighurs,” he said on Twitter. “Those of us who live free lives under the rule of law must speak for those who have no voice.  If that brings the anger of China down on me, I’ll wear that badge of honor.”

Australia and New Zealand’s foreign ministers said on Tuesday there was clear evidence of human rights abuses in Xinjiang, and they welcomed the sanctions imposed on Chinese officials by other Western nations.

“In particular, there is clear evidence of severe human rights abuses that include restrictions on freedom of religion, mass surveillance, large-scale extra-judicial detentions, as well as forced labor and forced birth control, including sterilization,” the foreign ministers of the two countries said in a joint statement.

Meanwhile, Taiwan has begun mass production of a long-range missile and is developing three other models, a senior official said on Thursday, in a rare admission of efforts to develop strike capacity amid growing Chinese pressure.

China has stepped up military activity near the island, as it tries to force the government in Taipei to accept Beijing’s claims of sovereignty.

Taiwan’s armed forces, dwarfed by China’s, are in the midst of a modernization program to offer a more effective deterrent, including the ability to hit back at bases deep within China in the event of a conflict.

Taiwan Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng told parliament that developing a long-range attack capability was a priority.

North Korea: North Korea’s launching of a new type of tactical short-range ballistic missile (280 miles in the air) highlighted military advances by the nuclear-armed state and propelled it to the top of President Biden’s foreign policy agenda.

When asked at his press conference if he agreed that North Korea was the top foreign policy issue he faced, Biden replied: “Yes.”

Biden had previously left North Korea entirely out of his maiden foreign policy speech in February, and in outlining eight diplomatic priorities earlier in March, his secretary of state didn’t focus on North Korea except to list it as one of several countries that pose a challenge.

The launches, which were North Korea’s first ballistic missile tests in nearly a year, underscored steady progress in its weapons program since denuclearization talks with the United States floundered under President Trump.

Biden said the United States remained open to diplomacy with North Korea despite its missile tests, but warned there would be responses if Pyongyang escalates matters.

As I’ve been writing for weeks, the North was getting antsy, not receiving any attention from the new administration, so the launches, including last weekend’s firing of two short-range missiles, was totally expected.

The State Department condemned the ballistic missile launches as destabilizing.  “These launches violate multiple UN Security Council resolutions and threaten the region and the broader international community,” a spokesman said.

“The development of this weapon system is of great significance in bolstering up the military power of the country and deterring all sorts of military threats,” said Ri Pyong Chol, the senior leader who oversaw the test, according to official news agency KCNA.

One player who was very upset by the ballistic missile tests was Japan, with Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga saying, “The first launch in just less than a year represents a threat to peace and stability in Japan and the region and violates UN resolutions.”  Japan is due to host its delayed and pandemic-affected Olympic Games in less than four months.  Suga said he would ensure a safe and secure Olympics and “thoroughly discuss” North Korea issues including the launches with President Biden during a visit to Washington next month.

Tonight, Saturday, Pyongyang time, North Korea said Biden had revealed “his deep-seated hostility” toward the North and encroached its right to self-defense by criticizing its latest missile test, KCNA reported. Ri Pyong Chol warned Washington might face “something that is not good” if it continues to make “thoughtless remarks without thinking of the consequences.”

David Ignatius / Washington Post

“In North Korea and Taiwan, President Biden faces two of the world’s most dangerous problems.  His challenge is to convince potential adversaries that a politically divided United States is stronger than it looks.

“Biden sounded a firm note on both fronts Thursday during his first formal news conference.  He warned North Korea that ‘there will be a response’ if it continues its recent missile tests, but he also offered ‘some form of diplomacy’ with ‘the end result of denuclearization’ of North Korea.

“On China, Biden pledged ‘steep, steep competition,’ by reinvesting in science at home and U.S. alliances abroad. But he also affirmed his personal relationship with President Xi Jinping, whom he called ‘a smart, smart guy.’

“Biden’s performance on Thursday underlined that his priority, for now, is domestic reconstruction rather than foreign intervention.  On Afghanistan, for example, he came close to setting a year-end deadline for withdrawing all U.S. troops, even though a political framework for power sharing and a cease-fire aren’t yet in place. This position will disappoint some of Biden’s military advisers, who favor an open-ended, conditions-based approach.

“North Korea had delivered a fiery calling card over the past week by launching a series of short-range missiles.  Biden initially dismissed the tests as ‘business as usual,’ but he said yes when asked Thursday whether he agreed with former president Barack Obama that North Korea was the most important foreign policy issue.  The president’s aides are debating how to frame a peace initiative that would take up where the Trump administration’s showy diplomacy left off.

“North Korea offers a rare example of where President Donald Trump prepared carefully for a diplomatic pressure campaign. After just three months in office, Trump hosted Xi at his Mar-a-Lago Club – enlisting Xi as a diplomatic partner in squeezing North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.  In the end, Trump got little to show for his leverage, except three meetings with Kim.

“Biden has taken the opposite opening move with Xi’s China.  Instead of sunny Palm Beach, Fla., the initial venue was the deep freeze of Anchorage.  During the encounter last week between Secretary of State Antony Blinken, national security adviser Jake Sullivan and their Chinese counterparts, both sides sought to demonstrate resolve for what Chinese official media have called a period of ‘protracted struggle.’

“Taiwan is where Chinese overconfidence seems most likely to produce a dangerous miscalculation.  U.S. officials in Anchorage came away worried that Xi might be preparing to abandon the ambiguous but relatively stable status quo in Taiwan – described in the nearly 50-year-old formula of ‘one China’ but two governments – in favor of a risky push for reunification.

“Taiwan poses an interesting test of whether Chinese leaders really believe their rhetoric about American decline.  If Xi thinks the United States’ demise is permanent and irreversible, the wise course presumably would be to wait until America is even weaker.  But if Xi instead fears a U.S. rebound, then he might be tempted to act more quickly.

“ ‘China seems to be believing its own narrative about U.S. decline – thinking, ‘This is China’s moment.’  If they believe that, it raises the risk of miscalculation,’ Michele Flournoy, former undersecretary of defense in the Obama administration, warned this week….

“But Bonnie Glaser, a China scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, took a more sanguine view.  ‘Xi’s priority is to deter Taiwan’s independence, and China has achieved that objective, at least for the time being,’ Glaser argued.  ‘Reunification is a clear goal, but it isn’t an urgent priority. Xi is not willing to risk all his other domestic objectives to achieve it.’….

“Since Anchorage, Chinese think tanks have been using a phrase that means ‘hit, hit, talk, talk’ to describe what’s ahead with the United States, according to one Sinologist.  The ‘hit, hit’ part of that formula carries significant risks – especially if China continues to believe that a weakened America isn’t ready to fight back.”

Russia: Allies of jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny said on Thursday they wanted proof that he was healthy after his lawyers were denied access to him and the Russian prison service issued a sparse statement saying his health was satisfactory.

Leonid Volkov, a close Navalny ally, said that Navalny began to experience serious back pain last week, had felt a numbness in his leg and had been unable to stand on it.  He was given two Ibuprofen for the pain, Volkov said.

Nearly 160 cultural figures, including writers, musicians and film directors, published an open letter to the authorities on Thursday demanding Navalny’s lawyers be given access to him and that he be held in normal conditions.

Navalny’s allies announced plans for what they hope will be the biggest anti-Kremlin street protest in modern Russian history this spring, in a bid to have him released.

Myanmar: As of end of the week, at least 300 had now been killed since the Feb. 1 military coup.  The European Union on Monday imposed sanctions on 11 people linked to the takeover as the repression of pro-democracy protesters by security forces reached what Germany’s foreign minister called “an unbearable extent.”

Germany: Support for German Chancellor Merkel’s conservatives has slumped three percentage points in a week to its lowest in over a year, a poll released on Wednesday showed, with the Greens just four points behind them.

Facing a federal election in September without Merkel, who is standing down after four terms, her Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party (CSU) together have dropped to 26%, the Forsa poll showed.

The Greens are at 22%, while the left-leaning Social Democrats (SPD), currently in an awkward ‘grand coalition’ with the conservatives, were steady at 16%. The business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP) rose two points to 10%.  The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and far-left Linke were unchanged at 10% and 8%, respectively.

Australia: The nation has seen its worst flooding along the east coast in 50 years, forcing thousands to evacuate and damaging hundreds of homes.

New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian said at a briefing, “Yesterday, we were hoping it will only be a one-in-20-year event, now it looks like a one-in-50-year event.”

The flooding is in stark contrast with the devastating bushfires that struck Australia in late 2019 and early 2020, when nearly 7% of NSW land was scorched.

Random Musings

--Presidential approval rankings….

A Reuters/Ipsos poll this week had President Biden with a 53% approval rating, 41% disapprove.

Rasmussen: 48% approve of Biden’s performance, 51% disapprove (Mar. 26), down from a 52-47 split last week.

--Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL), a close ally of Donald Trump who helped lead Republican efforts to challenge the 2020 presidential election results in Congress, announced Monday that he will run for the Senate held by the retiring Republican Sen. Richard Shelby.  An endorsement from Trump would likely make Brooks the favorite.

At a rally launching his campaign, Brooks was joined by former Trump adviser Stephen Miller, who I absolutely loathe.

--Speaking of former, or current, Trump advisers, Jason Miller, no relation (but an amazing dirtball in his own right), said Trump would soon use “his own platform” to return to social media, months after he was banned from Twitter for inciting the Capitol riot, and then soon after Facebook and Instagram.

Speculation has been rife that Trump might seek to create his own TV network in an attempt to pry viewers from Fox News.

Miller, appearing on Fox News Media Buzz with host Howard Kurtz, didn’t say if Trump was going to create the platform himself or with a company.  Miller did say: “I can’t go much further than what I was able to just share, but I can say that it will be big once he starts.

“There have been a lot of high-power meetings he’s been having at Mar-a-Lago with some teams of folks who have been coming in, and it’s not just one company that’s approached the president, there have been numerous companies.

“But I think the president does know what direction he wants to head here and this new platform is going to be big and everyone wants him, he’s gonna bring million and millions, tens of millions of people to this new platform.”

--Senators clashed Wednesday over sweeping voting rights legislation that would set federal standards on early and mail-in voting and expand access to the polls.

S1, or the For the People Act, is being examined in the Senate Rules and Administration Committee after the bill, one of the most expansive election reform measures introduced in Congress in decades, was lauded by Democrats and slammed by Republicans.

The bill passed the House 220-210, with one Democrat joining all voting Republicans to oppose the bill.

Senate Rules Chair Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) said Wednesday the legislation aims to make “voting easier, getting big money out of politics and strengthening ethics rules.”

“These are not radical proposals.  These are ideas that nearly everyone in this country agrees with.  And this bill, we can make them a reality,” Klobuchar said.

But Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), the top Republican on the committee, said the legislation would be a “federal takeover of the election process” and “that would be an unmitigated disaster for our democracy.”

Among other things, the legislation seeks to increase voter turnout by expanding early voting, lessening identification requirements, allowing same-day registration and requiring states to set up automatic registration for federal elections for eligible voters.

It would also impact gerrymandering and require states to establish a bipartisan independent commission to redraw their congressional districts every 10 years.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) spoke at the hearing and said Republicans are trying to “disenfranchise” voters following losses in the 2020 election.

“Shame on them,” Schumer said. “I would like to ask my Republican colleagues: why are you so afraid of democracy? Why, instead of trying to win voters over that you lost in the last election, are you trying to prevent them from voting?”

“Shame, shame, shame.  This is not the usual political argument.  This goes to the core of our democracy,” he continued.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) accused Democrats of continuing a “partisan power grab.” 

“We should be finding ways to rebuild trust, not destroy it further. But that’s exactly what a partisan power grab would guarantee.  And that’s what S1 is all about.”

Friday, President Biden said he is “worried” about a set of sweeping new voting restrictions approved in the state of Georgia.  Among the provisions in the legislation are restrictions on the use of absentee ballots, a reduction in open hours at polling locations, and the absurd prohibition on bringing water to voters in line,

Republican Gov. Brian Kemp said he offered no apology for “taking another step to making our elections fair and secure,” while opponents describe the law as among the country’s most damaging attempts to limit access to the ballot box and designed to reduce the influence of Black voters.

Here’s where I come down.  If, for whatever reason, you are seeking to limit the number of early voting days, then you must ensure the sites are fully staffed, and a state judge needs the ability to extend the hours if necessary.

But there is no doubt some states restrict voting locations in poor communities.  Making people wait five hours in line is unacceptable.  And having one drop box in a place like Harris County, Texas, is outrageous.  As for ID restrictions, once everyone understands the rules, they have to accept them.

More importantly, the issue, whether in Congress or left to the states individually, must be decided, one way or the other, by the end of 2021…that should be the mandate…so that both parties can get the word out all through 2022 as to what the exact rules of the road are.  

This will backfire on Republicans.

--The June 22 New York City Democratic primary race for mayor is still anyone’s guess.  In a survey by Fontas Advisors/Core Decision Analytics, Andrew Yang is in the lead with 16 percent, followed by Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams at 10 percent.  Former Citigroup executive Ray McGuire has 4 percent, in fifth place.

But 50 percent is undecided!

Now I told you last week that McGuire had 27 percent in a Crain’s Business New York survey, but I was remiss in not adding, the average New Yorker sure as heck isn’t reading Crain’s, but to Crain’s readers, McGuire is a known quantity (and more in the Michael Bloomberg mold than any of the other candidates).

You can see in a broader poll, McGuire barely registers.

So, yes, who the heck knows.  Andrew Yang does have name recognition.

--Meanwhile, as Gov. Andrew Cuomo continues to stay in office, attempting to ride out the storm over the multiple allegations of sexual harassment, Republican Rep. Tom Reed, who looked like he would be running against Cuomo in 2022, instead said he would not run for reelection to the House or for governor after a woman accused him of inappropriate touching at a bar four years ago.

Instead, Reed said he would stick to a pledge he made when he was first elected in 2010 that he would only serve for six terms, which will finish at the end of 2022.

Reed apologized in a statement to former lobbyist Nicolette Davis after the Washington Post reported that an intoxicated Reed rubbed her back, moved his hand outside her shirt, unfastened her bra and continued to grope her in a bar in Minneapolis.  In part: “Simply put, my behavior caused her pain, showed her disrespect and was unprofessional. I was wrong, I am sorry, and I take full responsibility.”

Reed is known for reaching across the aisle as a co-leader of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus in Congress.  He acknowledged the incident, which occurred in 2017, was when he was struggling with alcoholism.

--U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday criticized the Justice Department for speaking to the media about the ongoing investigation into the deadly Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

Mehta said he was “surprised” by remarks prosecutor Michael Sherwin made to the CBS program “60 Minutes,” and “troubled” by a New York Times article that cited anonymous Justice Department sources.  Mehta said the news coverage could affect potential jurors and undermine the constitutional rights of defendants to a fair trial.  The judge said he would consider imposing a “gag order” if the pattern continues.

“The Justice Department needs to understand that these types of public statements can jeopardize the integrity of a criminal case and affect the rights of the defendants,” Mehta said.

During the hearings, Justice Department officials told the judge that Sherwin’s interview with “60 Minutes” was being referred for review to an internal watchdog, who would determine if department policies were violated.  In a brief written order earlier in the day, Mehta said he was scheduling the hearing to address “recent statements to the media.”

As I was watching the episode myself, I, like I’m sure the rest of you, was thinking, ‘Gee this guy is chatty.’  But Sherwin was telling “60 Minutes” that investigators have found evidence that would likely allow the government to file sedition charges against some of those involved in the Jan. 6 attack.  “I believe the facts do support those charges. And I think that, as we go forward, more facts will support that,” Sherwin said, without specifying which defendants could face a charge.

In unaired portions of the interview, Sherwin debunked claims about left-wing extremists posing as Trump supporters and discussed tours of the building that took place before Jan. 6.

Sherwin also said investigators are examining whether suspects who were on the tours were “casing or doing reconnaissance runs” or on “a basic tour.”  He called the possibility troubling.

--The numbers of attacks on Asian-Americans in New York have been sickeningly on the rise.  One 68-year-old man was punched in the face by a stranger on a subway train, leaving him in critical condition.  As told to the New York Daily News by a good Samaritan who witnessed it and attempted to help:

The victim was minding his business when the unhinged assailant, sporting a fedora, black leather jacket, pink hoodie and an elaborate gold necklace, boarded the train about 2:40 p.m. last Friday.

“ ‘You motherf---ing Asian,” the snazzily-dressed man yelled, according to the witness.

Without warning, the 6-foot-2 attacker walloped the victim in the face.  He got away.

--Prince Harry was awarded a new title that presumably he never gave a thought to, that of chief impact officer.

BetterUp, a San Francisco-based startup devoted to promoting psychological well-being, announced “with great pleasure” Tuesday that the prince had joined the company to help sharpen its vision and build awareness of the importance of “mental fitness.”  Harry has been a vocal advocate of mental health and spoken openly of the depression he suffered after the death of his mother, when he was just a boy.

So now this is funny, per a report in the New York Post.

“Alexi Robichaux, BetterUp’s CEO, said his new employee was already ‘doing fantastic,’ though it was unclear whether Queen Elizabeth II’s grandson had been on the job for more than a few hours.

“ ‘I have obviously never talked to royalty before in my life, and I think the most impressive thing has just been his focus singularly on how can he be of service, how can he advance his vision and this mission, and how can we make positive impact on the world together,’ Robichaux told the BBC.  ‘He’s got an incredible attitude and filled with energy and enthusiasm so I have a feeling that he’ll work out.’”

Oh brother.   No word on Harry’s compensation, or whether his duties include replacing the toner in the copy machine.

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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

We pray for our first responders and healthcare workers.

God bless America.

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Gold $1731
Oil $60.79

Returns for the week 3/22-3/26

Dow Jones  +1.4%  [33072]
S&P 500  +1.6%  [3974]
S&P MidCap  +0.5%
Russell 2000  -2.9%
Nasdaq  -0.6%  [13138]

Returns for the period 1/1/21-3/26/21

Dow Jones  +8.1%
S&P 500  +5.8%
S&P MidCap  +13.9%
Russell 2000  +12.5%
Nasdaq  +1.9%

Bulls  55.9
Bears 19.6…last week’s figures, no update

Hang in there.  Wear a mask where appropriate…wash your hands.

Brian Trumbore

 

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