Week in Review

---

Week in Review

06/26/2021

For the week 6/21-6/25

[Posted 9:30 PM ET, Friday]

Note: StocksandNews has significant ongoing costs and your support is greatly appreciated.  Please click on the gofundme link or send a check to PO Box 990, New Providence, NJ 07974.

Edition 1,158

StocksandNews lost one of its major contributors this week, Dr. Bortrum, ‘Allen F. Bortrum,’ as he liked to say.  He’s also my father, known to his family as Forrest Allen Trumbore.

When I gave Dad the opportunity to write a column for this site, he said he always wanted a ‘nom de plume,’ a pen name, and Bortrum it was.

It’s no big secret that Dr. Bortrum was the best thing on StocksandNews.  I may have received a few more readers, but his column exuded the brain power I could never provide.  I’d like to think we both have a sense of humor and the same edict.  Try not to take yourself too seriously, though Bortrum did serious work.

Back in 1994, ‘Dr. Trumbore,’ was written up in a local paper here in Summit, New Jersey, for a rather unique occurrence.

Dad was born in Denver, Colorado, December 1927, but his family, including his younger brother, Conrad, ended up settling in Mechanicsburg, Pa.  Just to digress quickly, my Uncle Conrad, who survives my father, is a brilliant scientist (physical chemist) in his own right, having set up shop at the University of Delaware, with which he still has an affiliation.

Once, when I was national sales manager at PIMCO Funds, I interviewed a young man, Tim A., and noticed he went to Delaware.  “My Uncle Conrad is a professor there,” I observed. “I took a class from him. He was great!” said Tim. 

Tim was hired.  I was the easiest interview on Wall Street.

Anyway, Bortrum was a rather smart kid growing up and his mother, who ran the household, let him skip his last year or so of high school and Dad went directly to Dickinson College in next door Carlisle, Pa.  He was 15 years old!  He graduated from Dickinson when he was 18.  He then received a Ph.D. in physical chemistry from the University of Pittsburgh (where he met my mother, a nursing school student) at age 22! 

But he didn’t have a high school diploma.  So, at the conclusion of the reunion dinner of the Mechanicsburg High School Class of 1944, it was announced that there was some unfinished business, and Dad was escorted to another room to don a cap and gown.  Then, to the strains of “Pomp and Circumstance,” he was led to the podium to be presented with his high school diploma by Mechanicsburg’s assistant superintendent of schools.

The next evening, at the general alumni association dinner, Dr. Bortrum was inducted into the Mechanicsburg High School Alumni Association Hall of Fame for “achievement in a chosen profession.”

Dad remarked that it took precisely three times as long to graduate from high school as to get his Ph.D., and that some people are just slow learners.

By the way, the superintendent of schools for Mechanicsburg back in 1944 declined to give my father a diploma because he, himself, had done the same thing and always regretted it.

So after getting the doctorate at Pitt, Bortrum worked as an aeronautical research scientist at NACA (National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics), or Lewis Flight Propulsion Laboratory (a forerunner of NASA).  He then joined the Research Department at Bell Labs in Murray Hill, N.J.

At Bell Labs, Dad worked initially in the materials aspects of semiconductor devices. This work dealt primarily with impurities in germanium, silicon and gallium phosphide, with emphasis on crystal growth, and a lot of stuff I never had any idea about.  But I do recall his work on light emitting diodes, as in that which lights up, or used to light up, the numbers on your old Princess telephones.  That was my father’s work.  He was supervisor of this group, which ultimately led to the manufacture of such diodes by the Western Electric Co. 

Dad then joined the Battery Development Department of Bell Labs in 1972.  It was a tumultuous time.  He was a brilliant researcher, but maybe not a good ‘supervisor,’ being the greatest guy on the planet, so he was reassigned.  And he ends up being a co-inventor of the “niobium trisenlenide” rechargeable lithium battery, later developed as the AT&T Faraday cell.

Understand that at this time, I was generally in my high school years, my brother, six years older, was off to Dickinson College (a legacy), and conversation around the dinner table was centering on Dad getting his battery life from 60 to 70 minutes, if I recall correctly.  Yours truly, not understanding the true greatness that was taking place, would let out a derisive cheer.  [I really can be an idiot.]

But old Dad was doing great things for all of us and the future.  Even, whether you want to believe it or not, for someone like Elon Musk, down the road.  There was AWESOME stuff going on at Bell Labs in Murray Hill, and a related facility in Holmdel, N.J.  All of this is chronicled in our Dr. Bortrum’s own columns, which is the best history of Bell Labs, period.  Others have written good ‘books,’ but my father knew, and/or worked with, some of the greatest scientists of our time.  Multiple Nobel Prize winners.

It was funny, how in his last few years, when I’d go up to his office and he’d show me an obituary or technical paper he was reading on the computer from one of his former colleagues, that for the first time, Dad was rather disappointed he didn’t win a Nobel Prize himself.

What you learn, like with a lot of stuff in life, is it’s political.  Dad was never one to make sure he received credit for the work he had done, while others attached their names to certain ‘papers’ that were key to the Nobel process.

His paper on gallium phosphide, at least as of like ten years ago, was still the definitive work in physical chemistry textbooks.

Anyway, to get more technical, and from one of his bios, “(Dad’s) work on rechargeable lithium batteries included studies on various cathode materials, lithium cycling efficiency studies, and the design and software for automated battery test facilities.  Trumbore also was involved in testing, evaluation and specification writing for the use of primary lithium batteries in the old Bell System.”

Meanwhile, during this time I was a middling cross-country runner and ‘decent’ student at Summit High School who went on to card one of the worst academic records in the history of Wake Forest…but I got out in four years!

‘Dr. Trumbore’ served as Secretary of The Electrochemical Society (ECS), as Vice-Chairman of the Electronics Division and as chairman or member of numerous committees of the ECS.  He was the first recipient of the Electronics Division Award for his work on semiconductors.  He was an Honorary Member of the ECS, and a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.  I’m leaving out tons of stuff.  The other day, as I was going through same at the house, I came across a copy of the History of the ECS that he co-wrote.

After Dad retired from Bell Labs, he worked as a consultant with a few startups, including SAGE Electrochromatics, now owned by Saint-Gobain, that was involved in the manufacture of ‘smart glass.’ 

I bring this up because Dad was a shareholder, and for a spell chief chemist, and Saint-Gobain acquired the company in 2010.  Dad gave a few shares to my brother and I, which we duly spent on beer, my brother of the craft variety, me Coors Light.

So a few weeks ago the three of us get this letter from the ‘escrow agents’ for the merger.  Eleven years later, we had to fill out a document to receive whatever proceeds were left over.  I mean, c’mon…eleven years!

I got poor Dad to scribble something, in his weakened state, and my brother and I are guessing it’s enough for perhaps a six-pack.

But Dad was also an Adjunct Professor in the Bioengineering Section of the Department of Surgery at the University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey-Robert Wood Johnson (RWJ) Medical School.

For over ten years, I’ve known he was donating his body to medical research at RWJ, and for this reason, I have had their 800# plastered all over my place and in my wallet.  I learned this week that his brother, Conrad, is also donating his body.  And you know what, I’m thinking of doing the same.  It’s much easier on the family, for starters.

But I have a quick, important tip, for the one or two readers who are also giving their bodies to science.  Let’s say you signed up for it ten years ago.  I happened to call Rutgers about six weeks ago just to confirm Dad was still on the list, which he was, but I had no idea he needed new paperwork because of Covid!  My brother and I quickly signed off.  If we hadn’t done so, we wouldn’t have fulfilled his last wish!  I would have never been able to live with myself.  When I advised my uncle of this this week, he thanked me.

So when I received the death call at 4:35 a.m. Monday morning, my first call was not to my brother (he understands) but to Rutgers and within two minutes, a guy from RWJ was telling me when they would be picking up his body from the hospice.  I’ve heard the medical students treat such bodies with reverence, and that they have some kind of background on their subject.

They will treat Dad with respect.  My brother and I, and Dad’s brother, always did the same.

This was a great man.  The most humble person you’d ever meet.  He was loved by all who came in contact with him.  Forrest Allen Trumbore, or as he might prefer, Allen F. Bortrum, leaves this earth having made a tremendous contribution to society and the scientific world.

I’ll have a final comment below.

---

Biden’s Agenda

--President Biden signed off Thursday on a bipartisan agreement crafted by 10 senators that would pump $973 billion over five years, $1.2 trillion over eight.

“We have a deal,” Biden said alongside the five Democrats and five Republicans who had negotiated for weeks on a package to revitalize the nation’s roads, bridges and transit systems, while upgrading broadband and investing in other public-works projects.

And then the president blew it up.

Biden spoke with Democratic Senator Krysten Sinema today and reiterated his support for a “two-track” legislation process that includes a second reconciliation bill.   We always knew the Democrats would go for more, in a second package, but after announcing the bipartisan deal, suddenly, in a separate appearance, the president was adamant both packages, the second under reconciliation requiring just 50 votes, had to be on his desk simultaneously.

“The president reiterated strong support for both the Bipartisan Infrastructure bill and a reconciliation bill containing the American Families Plan moving forward on a two-track system, as he said yesterday when meeting the press with the bipartisan group of ten Senators,” the White House said in a statement.

After House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said early on Thursday her chamber would not vote on the first infrastructure package unless the second reconciliation bill passed the Senate, Biden publicly seconded the idea.

“I expect that in the coming months this summer, before the fiscal year is over, that we will have voted on this bill, the infrastructure bill, as well as voted on the budget resolution,” Biden told reporters on Thursday.  “But if only one comes to me, I’m not signing it.  It’s in tandem.”

Immediately, some Republicans who were previously part of the bipartisan deal then said they will not vote for it if it is brought up alongside the reconciliation bill, feeling blindsided.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell accused Biden of bad-faith negotiations.  Republicans involved in Thursday’s White House meeting said the topic of reconciliation came up only briefly and without administration pressure on either the Republican or Democratic lawmakers present.

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki told reporters: “You have all heard the president say multiple times publicly that he wanted to move these bills forward in parallel paths, and that’s exactly what’s happening.  That hasn’t been a secret… He said it very much aloud.”

Biden was trying to have it both ways…appear bipartisan but also appease the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, only now, as of tonight, he’d get neither.

So the White House is furiously attempting to walk back Biden’s comments.  What a s---show.  A total unforced error, Mr. President.

--The Justice Department announced Friday it will sue Georgia over the state’s new voting law, saying it violates federal voting rights legislation.

Georgia passed the sweeping Senate Bill 202 in March that imposes voter ID requirements, limits ballot drop boxes and allows the state to take over local elections.

Attorney General Merrick Garland said Friday that law, along with others filed by Republican-led states after Donald Trump was defeated in November, illegally interferes with voting rights.

“This lawsuit is the first of many steps we are taking to ensure that all eligible voters can cast a vote, that all lawful votes are counted and that every voter has access to accurate information,” Garland said today.

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who drew Trump’s anger for not overturning the Georgia election but supported the new state voting changes, fired back at the Justice Department.  He accused them of caving to Democrats and former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, who has led a nationwide voting rights campaign.

“The Biden administration continues to do the bidding of Stacey Abrams and spreads more lies about Georgia’s election law,” Raffensperger said, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.  “I look forward to meeting them, and beating them, in court.”

Biden won Georgia by fewer than 12,000 votes. Trump accused the state of allowing thousands of illegal ballots but a recount and audit confirmed Biden’s narrow win.

Earlier, Senate Republicans banded together Tuesday to block a sweeping Democratic bill that would revamp voting rights, dealing a grave blow to efforts to federally override dozens of GOP-passed state voting laws such as that in Georgia.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) did not lay out specific next steps after the vote Tuesday but called it “the starting gun, not the finish line” and vowed to “explore every last one of our options.”

But for now, this is dead.

--Vice President Kamala Harris finally went to the U.S.-Mexico border today as head of the Biden administration’s response to the crisis there and she asserted that progress tackling the migration spike has been made, though said the situation at the border is “tough” and said more work is needed.

“We inherited a tough situation,” Harris said during a meeting with faith-based organizations, as well as shelter and legal service providers.

She added: “In five months we’ve made progress, but there’s still more work to be done, but we’ve made progress.”

But Harris has faced increasing criticism from members of both parties for deferring the trip until now and for her muddied explanations as to why.

Republicans have seized on the absence of Harris and President Biden from the border to paint the administration as weak on border security, seeking to revive a potent political weapon against Democrats for the 2022 midterm elections.

The absence of the president and Veep has left some Democrats worried that damage already has been done, and that the administration ceded the border security debate to Republicans.

“The administration is making Democrats look weak,” said Texas Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar in an interview with the Associated Press.  “I’ve heard, from Democrats and Republicans in my area, what the heck is going on with this administration?”

Cuellar’s district spans from south of San Antonio to the border, and last year he won reelection by the slimmest margin of his nearly two-decade-long career.  While he says he’s not worried about his own reelection, he adds, “I worry about my colleagues.”

--President Biden unveiled a plan to fight a nationwide surge in homicides that includes funding more police.  He said officials in high crime areas can hire more law-enforcement personnel using coronavirus relief funding.

Biden’s crime-fighting strategy calls for curtailing rogue gun dealers and firearms trafficking.

Republicans have depicted Democrats as weak on crime, amid calls by left-wingers to defund the police, though the president himself has resisted the slogan, which is unpopular with most voters.

During his presentation after meeting with several big city mayors at the White House on the topic, Biden was noticeably slurring his words and was clearly tired.  It was kind of pathetic.

But when he took a few questions after, he was fine.

The Pandemic

Some 90 percent of Covid infections across Europe will be caused by the aggressive Delta strain of coronavirus by the end of August, European health authorities have warned, in a forecast that will put pressure on Euro governments’ reopening plans.

Health officials are concerned another wave of disease, caused by the variant, is likely across the continent, but the impact can be reduced by the vaccine rollout and some lingering restrictions on social life.

Meanwhile, on the vaccination front, the White House acknowledged this week that President Biden will fall shy of his 70% goal and an associated aim of fully vaccinating 165 million adults in the same time frame.  The missed milestones are notable in a White House that from the outset has been organized around a strategy of underperforming and overdelivering for the American public.

A drop-off in vaccination rates was always expected, but not as sharp as has proved to be the case.

Covid-19 death tolls, as of tonight….

World…3,924,553
USA…619,147
Brazil…511,272
India…394,524
Mexico…232,068
Peru…191,286
Russia…132,064
UK…128,066
Italy…127,418
France…110,939
Colombia…103,321
Argentina…91,979
Germany…91,247
Iran…83,588
Spain…80,779
Poland…74,953
South Africa…59,621
Indonesia…56,371
Ukraine…52,234
Turkey…49,473
Romania…32,911
Chile…32,012
Czechia…30,292
Hungary…29,980
Canada…26,197
Belgium…25,152
Philippines…24,152
Pakistan…22,152
Ecuador…21,433

Source: worldometers.info

U.S. daily death tolls…Sun. 132; Mon. 237; Tues. 423; Wed. 346; Thurs. 329; Fri. 382.

Covid Bytes

--Nearly all Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. now are in people who weren’t vaccinated, a staggering demonstration of how effective the shots have been and an indication that deaths per day – way down as you’ve seen week-to-week above – could be practically zero if everyone eligible got the vaccine.

An Associated Press analysis of available government data from May shows that “breakthrough” infections in fully vaccinated people accounted for fewer than 1,200 of more than 853,000 Covid-19 hospitalizations, or about 0.1%.

And only about 150 of the more than 18,000 Covid-19 deaths in May were in fully vaccinated people, or five deaths per day on average.

--Details of the genetic makeup of some of the earliest samples of coronavirus in China were removed from an American database where they were initially stored at the request of Chinese researchers, U.S. officials confirmed, adding to concerns over secrecy surrounding the outbreak and its origins.

The data, first submitted to the U.S.-based Sequence Read Archive in March 2020, were “requested to be withdrawn” by the same researcher three months later in June, the U.S. National Institutes of Health said in a statement Wednesday. The genetic sequences came from the Chinese city of Wuhan where the Covid-19 outbreak was initially concentrated.

The reason cited at the time for withdrawal was that the sequence information ha been updated and was being submitted to another database, the agency said.  The researcher asked that the data be removed “to avoid version control issues,” it said.

“Submitting investigators hold the rights to their data and can request withdrawal of the data,” the agency said.  “NIH can’t speculate on motive beyond the investigator’s stated intentions.”

The disappearance of the genetic sequences from the database raises questions about what else from the Wuhan outbreak has been shielded, said American virologist Jesse Bloom, who publicized his discovery that they were missing earlier this week. Bloom, who subsequently recovered the information, said it didn’t provide definitive details on where or how the virus originated.

Politicians and scientists around the world have grown increasingly frustrated by China’s efforts to deflect an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus, especially the possibility that it leaked from a Wuhan laboratory.  A World Health Organization team, visiting China earlier this year for an investigation, was not allowed access to raw data and their conclusion – that the virus likely crossed over from animals – has been widely criticized as being premature.

--Hong Kong is banning passenger flights from Indonesia as of today, deeming the country’s arrivals “extremely high risk” for the coronavirus.  Hong Kong has already banned arrivals from India, Nepal, Pakistan and the Philippines, using a flight suspension rule triggered when there are five or more passengers who test positive for one of the variant Covid-19 cases on arrival, or 10 or more passengers found to have any strain of the disease while in quarantine.  Cases have been surging in Indonesia.

--South Africa’s daily Covid-19 infections rose to new daily highs this week in the country’s third resurgence of the virus.  It’s also apparent South Africa is vastly undercounting its death toll.

--South America, which has just 5% of the world’s population now accounts for a quarter of the global Covid death toll, as the coronavirus continues to rage in the likes of Brazil, Colombia and Argentina.

Several factors are at play: a slow rate of vaccination, the spread of new Covid-19 variants, crowded cities, weak healthcare systems, far higher rates of obesity than in Africa and Asia, and some governments that largely gave up trying to control the virus.

As anger builds over governments’ handling of the crisis, signs of political upheaval are multiplying.

--Many South American countries, such as Chile, have been using China’s Sinovac vaccine, predominantly, and a major Hong Kong study has found “substantially higher” levels of antibodies in people vaccinated against Covid with the German-made BioNTech vaccine, compared with those who received Sinovac shots.

The BioNTech shot (of which Pfizer is a partner) has been reported to have a 95 percent efficacy rate, while the mark for Sinovac is 50.7 percent.

--According to a new Monmouth University poll, only 23% of Americans said they were “very concerned” about a family member experiencing severe illness due to Covid-19, compared to 60% in January.

At the same time, four in 10 Americans haven’t changed their mask-wearing habits since the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention dropped mask requirements for vaccinated people in mid-May.

This week I finally stopped wearing a mask in some grocery stores, but in more confined establishments might wear one.  With Dr. Bortrum gone, I don’t have to worry about protecting him, as I have been.

If the Delta variant kicks in this fall, I may put a mask back on in some places, even though I am fully vaccinated. 

Among the 1 in 5 Americans who said they won’t get vaccinated, nearly half reported wearing a mask only rarely during the pandemic.

Nearly three-quarters of those who have been vaccinated expressed concern over another surge.

Among the 1 in 5 who say they won’t get the vaccine, 69% either lean or identify with the Republican Party.

--Nine months after the declaration of a national emergency due to the emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. births fell by 8% in a month.  For the full year, the number of babies born in the country fell 4% to about 3.6 million, the largest decline since 1973, according to a report from the CDC.

--According to the New Jersey state Department of Education, the pandemic left 1-in-3 students “below grade level” in math and English, according to local assessments results reported to the DoE.  That’s not good.

Wall Street and the Economy

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the price increases seen in the economy recently are bigger than expected but reiterated that they will likely wane.

“A pretty substantial part, or perhaps all of the overshoot in inflation comes from categories that are directly affected by the re-opening of the economy such as used cars and trucks,” Powell said Tuesday in response to a question before the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis.  “Those are things that we would look to to stop going up and ultimately to start to decline.”

But Powell acknowledged the uncertainty around that view.

“I will say that these effects have been larger than we expected and they may turn out to be more persistent than we expected.”

Powell said the Fed would be patient in waiting to lift borrowing costs.

“We will not raise interest rates preemptively because we think employment is too high, because we feared the possible onset of inflation,” he said.  “We will wait for actual evidence of actual inflation or other imbalances.”

On the data front this week, May existing home sales fell for a fourth straight month in May to an annualized pace of 5.8 million units as record-high prices amid low inventory frustrated potential buyers, a trend that could persist for a while, with builders unable to deliver more houses because of expensive lumber.  [Though I hasten to add, Lumber has come down from a high of $1670 on May 7 to $837 Thursday, a 50% retracement!  As I noted last week, historically it’s around $350.]

The median existing house price accelerated a record 23.6% from a year ago to an all-time high of $350,300 in May, with sales remaining skewed towards bigger and more expensive homes.

There were 1.23 million previously owned homes on the market in May, up 7% from April and down 20.6% from one year ago. While the monthly improvement in inventory is welcome, the supply gap could take a long time to close.

May new home sales also came in less than expected, 769,000 annualized, with the median price at $374,400, up 18.1% from a year ago.

Durable goods in May, up 2.3%, logged the best monthly performance since the start of the year as the transportation component returned to positive territory after two months of negative prints amid supply constraints, i.e., chip shortages. 

The transportation segment jumped 7.6%, while nondefense aircraft orders surged more than 27%.

Today, we had important data on personal income and consumption for May; the former down 2.0%, better than expected, while the latter was worse than forecast, unchanged.  We are still normalizing from the big stimulus boost in March.

The Fed’s key inflation barometer, the core personal consumption expenditures index (PCE) rose 3.4% year-over-year, highest since April 1992.

We also had our final revision to first-quarter GDP this week, unchanged at 6.4% annualized, which was up from the fourth quarter’s 4.3%.

Weekly jobless claims came in at 411,000.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for the second quarter is down to 8.3%.

Europe and Asia

We had flash PMI readings for June for the eurozone, courtesy of IHS Markit.  The composite reading for the region was 59.2 vs. 57.1 in May (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction), a 180-month high; manufacturing 62.4, services 58.0, a 41-month high. 

Rather robust.

The flash readings also break out Germany and France.

Germany: 65.1 manufacturing in June vs. May’s 62.8; 58.1 on services, a 123-month high.

France: 55.5 manufacturing, down from May’s 58.7; services 57.4.

The UK had strong figures: 62.0 manufacturing, 61.7 services.

Chris Williamson / IHS Markit

“The eurozone economy is booming at a pace not seen for 15 years as businesses report surging demand, with the upturn becoming increasingly broad-based, spreading from manufacturing to encompass more service sectors, especially consumer-facing firms.

“Virus containment measures have been eased to the lowest since last September and are set to be reduced further in July to the lowest since the pandemic began. Vaccination programs are also making impressive progress.  This has not only facilitated greater activity in the service sector in particular, but the brightening prospect of life increasingly returning to normal has also pushed confidence to an all-time high, fueled greater spending and encouraged hiring.

“The data set the scene for an impressive expansion of GDP in the second quarter to be followed by even stronger growth in the third quarter.

“However, the strength of the upturn – both within Europe and globally – means firms are struggling to meet demand, suffering shortages of both raw materials and staff.  Under these conditions, firms’ pricing power will continue to build, inevitably putting further upward pressure on inflation in the coming months.”

--The Bank of England said inflation would surpass 3% as Britain’s locked-down economy reopens, but the climb further above its 2% target would only be “temporary” and most policymakers favored keeping stimulus at full throttle.

Investors are expecting a rate hike in about 12 months’ time.

Brexit: Five years ago, Wednesday, Britons voted in a referendum that was meant to bring certainty to the UK’s unsettled relationship with the European Union.

The result was 52% choosing to leave the EU, 48% wanted to remain.  It then took over four years to actually make the break and the former partners are still bickering over money and trust.

According to polling expert John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde, voters are also still split about 50-50 between “remain” and “leave” supporters, and relatively few have changed their minds since 2016.

And far from bringing the UK together, Brexit has frayed the bonds between the different parts of the United Kingdom.

It has increased support for independence in Scotland, which voted in 2016 to remain in the EU but had to leave the bloc when the rest of the UK did.  It also has destabilized Northern Ireland, which borders EU member Ireland, by imposing new trade barriers between it and the rest of the UK that have angered Northern Ireland’s pro-British unionist community.

Turning to Asia…nothing of note in China.

In Japan, we had flash PMI readings for June.  Manufacturing 49.1 vs. 53.7 in May, services 47.2 vs. 46.5 prior.

Covid restrictions, coupled with severe supply chain pressure, notably for manufacturers, were the prime culprits for the poor numbers.

But when it comes to the Tokyo Olympics, the public’s opposition to holding the Games is losing some steam, according to a series of media polls published a month before the opening ceremony.

A survey by broadcaster Fuji Television found 30.5% of respondents said the event should be canceled, compared with 56.6% the previous month.  About 35.3% said the competition should be held without spectators, while 33.1% said a limited number of people should be admitted to the venues, which the government has announced it will do.

A separate poll by TV Asahi found about two-thirds of respondents didn’t think the government’s pledge of a “safe and secure” games would be fulfilled.  The Asahi survey showed 37% of respondents saying that the Olympics should be canceled, compared with 30% who said it should go ahead.

But a third poll by Kyodo News found 86.7% of respondents saying they were concerned about another surge in virus cases resulting from the Olympics.

Street Bytes

--Investors grew more comfortable with the Federal Reserve’s warnings last week that it may raise interest rates a little sooner than anticipated and erased all of last week’s losses, the S&P 500 closing at a new record high today, up 2.7% on the week to 4280.

Nasdaq rose 2.4%, having hit a new high on Thursday of 14369, while the Dow Jones surged 3.4% to 34433, about 345 points shy of a new mark for the blue-chip index.

With oil rising again, the energy sector had the largest percentage gain of the week.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 0.05%  2-yr. 0.27%  10-yr.  1.52%  30-yr.  2.15%

Yields rose on the long end of the curve, but hardly to worrisome levels, including from a technical standpoint.

--OPEC+ is discussing a further gradual increase of oil output from August, but no decision has been taken on the exact volume yet.  OPEC and allies are returning 2.1 million barrels per day to the market from May through July as part of a plan to gradually unwind last year’s record oil output curbs, as demand recovers from the pandemic.  OPEC+ next meets on July 1.

Oil, as measured by West Texas Intermediate, closed the week at $74.00, up $2.50, helped by a report showing U.S. inventories fell by 7.6 million barrels last week to their lowest level since March 2020, while gasoline inventories also dropped.  The larger-than-expected drop also marks the fifth consecutive decline and was seen as an indication that demand is continuing to improve from pandemic lows, including a near-doubling of aviation fuel demand from a year earlier.

--Meanwhile, Exxon Mobil is preparing to cut its U.S. office staff by between 5% and 10% annually for the next three to five years.  The plan is separate from the oil giant’s announcement last year that it will slash 14,000 jobs worldwide by 2022.

The new cuts will target the lowest-rated employees relative to peers, and for that reason will not be characterized as layoffs, according to sources who told Bloomberg News.  Many such employees in the past were expected to eventually leave on their own.

--Morgan Stanley has told its employees they must get Covid-19 vaccines before returning to its New York offices.  Staff are required to disclose their vaccination status to the bank by July 1, the firm said in a memo to employees. Starting July 12, employees, contingent workers, clients and visitors will be required to confirm that they were vaccinated before entering Morgan Stanley buildings in New York City and Westchester County.

Unvaccinated employees will work remotely, sources told the Wall Street Journal.  Last week, CEO James Gorman said that well over 90% of employees in its offices were vaccinated.

Companies are pressuring employees to get vaccinated before their offices fully reopen, but few have gone so far as to require it.  The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission last month said U.S. employers can require staffers entering a workplace to be vaccinated against Covid-19, although they must accommodate those who are unvaccinated for disability or religious reasons.

Wall Street firms are particularly eager to end the work-from-home era.  JPMorgan Chase is expected to make a similar announcement for its New York employees, but will follow more closely the EEOC language.

--Nearly every corporate giant is bringing workers back to the office – but a return to business travel is shaping up to be a more sluggish affair.

Online domestic flight bookings totaled $5.1 billion in May, according to data released on Monday by Adobe Analytics. That’s off 4 percent from April and down 20 percent from the same month two years ago – and the big culprit is a stubborn lack of business travel, the firm said.

Only 11 percent of workers are planning on traveling for business in the next six months, according to the firm – and 29 percent of those surveyed still don’t feel safe traveling.

“An increase in vaccinations and consumer confidence have unleashed some pent-up demand, but the lack of business travel is beginning to slow the comeback,” the data firm said.  “The lack of business travel (as companies take a careful approach to re-opening) and lingering customer hesitation are prolonging the road to recovery.”

The Global Business Travel Association doesn’t see a full recovery in work travel until 2025.

--American Airlines Group Inc. dropped about 1% of its scheduled daily flights for July after a faster-than-expected surge in summer travel led to crew shortages.

The airline will cancel 950 flights during the first 13 days of July, after it scrapped about 775 flights over the weekend and into Monday on what it cited as poor weather conditions at its Miami and Chicago hubs that exacerbated a shortfall in pilots.

A big issue is that pilots who took leave and those who were switched to new types of planes have had to be retrained as flight demand has recovered to near-2019 levels.

American added flights back faster than its primary competitors and is operating about 10% below its 2019 seat capacity.  Delta Air Lines is more than 20% below pre-pandemic capacity, and United Airlines is more than 30% below.

--Southwest Airlines Co. CEO Gary Kelly announced he will step down in February after nearly 17 years, handing the reins to a company veteran as the carrier plots its path out of the pandemic.

Bob Jordan, 60, currently the airline’s executive vice president of corporate services, will take Kelly’s place as CEO.  Kelly, 66, will become executive chairman and plans to serve in that role through at least 2026 at the discretion of the company’s board.

Unlike major rivals, Southwest has avoided bankruptcies and layoffs.  But Covid-19 halted LUV’s 47-year streak of annual profits.  Like its competitors, Southwest took on billions of dollars of additional debt to survive – something that is Jordan’s job now to manage.

After a nearly $3.1 billion loss in 2020, Southwest was the first U.S. carrier to return to profitability in the first quarter of this year, due to an influx of government aid.  It has embarked on an aggressive growth trajectory, with 18 new destinations announced since early 2020.

Jordan has been with the company since 1988 and said he plans to pursue the growth course.

Gary Kelly, having taken over for the larger-than-life Herb Kelleher, Southwest’s co-founder, presided over a period of transformative growth, roughly doubling the number of airports Southwest flies to and pushing into international markets.

--Aer Lingus needs another few hundred million euros in extra liquidity due to ongoing Covid-19 disruptions and does not expect the easing of Irish travel curbs next month to provide a significant near-term bounce, its new CEO said on Tuesday.

The Irish airline, which recently announced company-wide layoffs and the closure of one of its main domestic cabin crew bases, is losing more than 1 million euros ($1.2 million) a day.

The closure of Shannon Airport in the west of Ireland, was a big blow to the region.

Ireland’s airlines have been highly critical of the government’s Covid-19 travel curbs which for months have been the strictest in the European Union.  The country will now adopt the EU’s Covid certificate to help citizens move more freely across the bloc from July 19, as well as broadly applying the same approach to Britain and the U.S.

“It is looking too little too late to have a significant bounce that will get us on the right path to restoring connectivity, and supporting jobs in the near term,” said CEO Lynne Embleton, citing curbs for unvaccinated travelers from Britain and the U.S.  “We will be smaller for some time to come, unfortunately, and it will take a long time to fully recover.”

Golf tourism is a huge industry for Ireland and it’s been decimated.  Having been there 21 times, and being a member of a club in the west, I’m plugged in and when you get the big picture, those I feel most sorry for are the caddies, getting zero business (because locals all have their own carts), and the food workers, let alone local businesses, such as in the towns of Lahinch and Ballybunion.

--TSA checkpoint travel numbers vs. 2019

6/24…77 percent of 2019 level
6/23…69
6/22…72
6/21…75
6/20…77…pandemic high of 2,100,761 travelers
6/19…79
6/18…75
6/17…75

--China expanded its clampdown on cryptocurrencies, telling banks and payments platforms to stop supporting digital currency transactions.  That follows an order last Friday to shut down Bitcoin mining operations in Sichuan province.

The price of Bitcoin then slumped by more than 10% on Monday but stabilized the rest of the week.

Concerns about the environmental impact of the energy-hungry computers that underpin Bitcoin also continue to swirl. Chinese officials are already trying to root out crypto mining operations.

--Ant Group Co. is in talks with Chinese state-owned enterprises to create a credit-scoring company that will put the fintech giant’s proprietary consumer data under regulators’ purview, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The new entity could result in Ant ceding some control over the voluminous data it has on the financial habits of Chinese citizens.  More than one billion individuals use Ant’s Alipay app to spend, borrow or invest their money, and the information that Ant has collected and used has been the secret sauce behind the company’s success in recent years.

Ant, controlled by billionaire Jack Ma, has been in talks with the Chinese state-owned companies over forming a joint venture that would be licensed as a credit-scoring company. There are questions as to who would run this new operation, Ant or the state, according to the Journal.  But clearly regulators are pushing for state-owned shareholders to have the greater role.

Bottom line is the Chinese Communist Party sees a goldmine of personal data it can mine for evil purposes, under the guise of keeping the financial system secure, no doubt.

This is also just the beginning for China’s overhaul of the finance operations of the likes of Tencent Holdings Ltd., JD.com, TikTok owner ByteDance Ltd. and ride-hailing giant Didi Chuxing.  U.S. and European officials have been wondering for years what to do with the big tech companies that have amassed so much power. China’s answer is to assert control.

--FedEx Corp. shares fell over 3% after the company said it would boost capital spending by 22% this year to add capacity to its network, after a surge in e-commerce packages caused ground delivery delays and left some freight customers without service.

The package giant plans to spend $7.2 billion on capacity expansion, modernize its fleet and facilities, and increase use of automation.

The company said it’s had difficulty finding enough workers, which has impacted its ability to keep deliveries on-time this year.

FedEx suspended about 1,400 customers from its Freight shipping service, a move that surprised and angered customers and was aimed at easing a congested network taxed by relentless package volume.  It resumed service to some of them this week.

As for the financials, FedEx reported $22.6 billion in sales, better than the Street forecast, while earnings were just in line with consensus at an adjusted $5.01 per share.

--Darden Restaurants swung to a profit in the fiscal fourth quarter as same-store sales nearly reached 2019 levels amid the easing of Covid-19 dining restrictions.

The Orlando, Florida-based parent of Olive Garden reported adjusted earnings of $2.03 per share in the quarter ended May 30, compared with a loss of $1.24 per share a year ago, better than expected.  Revenue totaled $2.28 billion, well above the $1.27bn of a year prior and higher than consensus as well.

“We had a strong quarter that exceeded our expectations as sales improved throughout the quarter,” Darden CEO Gene Lee said in a statement. “We are well positioned to thrive in this operating environment.”

Same-restaurant sales surged 90% year-over-year, and were only 0.5% down from the fiscal fourth quarter of 2019.  That’s amazing.  By May alone, the sales were up 2.4% from 2019. Same-restaurant sales of Olive Garden grew 62% while those of LongHorn Steakhouse soared 108%.

The company also issued a rosy outlook and added it plans to open about 35 to 40 new restaurants in fiscal 2022, having opened 30 new ones in the fiscal fourth quarter.

--Nike Inc. shares soared 15% Friday after the company reported fourth-quarter net income of $1.51 billion, following a loss of $790 million in the same period a year earlier, blowing away Wall Street’s forecast.

The athletic apparel maker posted revenue of $12.34 billion in the period, also surpassing consensus.  It was the first time in its 50-year history Nike exceeded the $12 billion mark.

Sales were also better than expected in the Greater China region, up 17% to $1.9bn in the quarter, after comments on alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang.

For the year, the company reported profit of $5.73 billion.  Revenue came in at $44.54 billion.

--BuzzFeed Inc. is going public, announcing Thursday it plans to merge with a special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC), part of a plan to consolidate with other players in digital media.

As part of the transaction, said to put a valuation on BuzzFeed of $1.5 billion, it will acquire New York-based Complex Networks, a youth network that features fashion, food, music and sports content, for $300 million.

The merger deal, with 890 5th Avenue Partners Inc. – a blank-check company named after the headquarters of Marvel’s Avengers superheroes and founded by investor Adam Rothstein – would generate capital to pursue additional acquisitions, particularly those involved in retail and music as BuzzFeed is vying for greater scale to better compete for online ad dollars with the giants, namely Google, Amazon.com, and Facebook.

890 5th Avenue Partners Inc.’s CEO, Jonah Peretti, is a 47-year-old former teacher, who parlayed some viral stunts on the internet into a career as a digital-media entrepreneur.  He helped found HuffPost alongside Arianna Huffington in 2005.

--John McAfee, the eccentric founder of the antivirus computer software bearing his name, was found dead inside a jail cell Wednesday shortly after Spain’s National Court approved his extradition to the U.S., according to Spanish government officials.

McAfee, whose history of legal troubles spanned from Tennessee to Central America to the Caribbean, was discovered lifeless at a penitentiary in northeastern Spain. Security personnel tried to revive him, but the jail’s medical team finally certified his death, a statement from the regional Catalan government said.

“A judicial delegation has arrived to investigate the causes of death,” it said, adding that “everything points to death by suicide.”

McAfee was awaiting extradition to the United States, Spain’s National Court on Monday ruling in favor of doing so.  He had argued in a hearing earlier this month that the charges against him by prosecutors in Tennessee were politically motivated and that he would spend the rest of his life in prison if returned to the U.S.

McAfee was arrested last October at Barcelona’s international airport and had been in jail since then awaiting the outcome of extradition proceedings.  The arrest followed charges the same month in Tennessee for evading taxes after failing to report income from promoting cryptocurrencies while he did consulting work, made speaking engagements and sold the rights to his life story for a documentary.  The criminal charges carried a prison sentence of up to 30 years.

Tennessee prosecutors had argued that McAfee owed the U.S. government $4,214,105 in taxes before fines or interests for undeclared income in the five fiscal years from 2014 to 2018, according to a Spanish court document seen by the Associated Press.

Born in England’s Gloucestershire in 1945 as John David McAfee, he started McAfee Associates in 1987 and led an eccentric life after selling his stake in the antivirus software company named after him in the early 1990s.

McAfee twice made long-shot runs for the U.S. presidency and was a participant in Libertarian Party presidential debates in 2016.

In 2012 he was wanted for questioning in connection with the death of Gregory Viant Faull, who was shot to death in early November 2012 on the Belize island where the men lived.  McAfee said he was being persecuted by the Belizean government.  Belizean police denied that, saying they were simply investigating a crime about which McAfee may have had information. Then-Prime Minister Dean Barrow expressed doubts about McAfee’s mental state, saying, “I don’t want to be unkind to the gentleman, but I believe he is extremely paranoid, even bonkers.”

A Florida court ordered McAfee in 2019 to pay $25 million to Faull’s estate in a wrongful death claim.

In July of that year he was released from detention in the Dominican Republic after he and five others were suspected of traveling on a yacht carrying high-caliber weapons, ammunition and military-style gear.

McAfee used to say he only felt comfortable when armed.

--Poor Subway.  It can’t escape scrutiny with its tuna fish sandwich.  A lab test set up by the New York Times reportedly detected no tuna DNA in 60 inches of tuna sandwiches that were examined.  The experiment included sandwiches from three Subway shops in Los Angeles.  But there’s a catch.

According to a spokesperson from the unidentified lab that conducted the testing, there are two possibilities for their inability to detect tuna. The first explanation is that Subway’s tuna is so heavily processed that if there is tuna in their sandwiches, it couldn’t be clearly identified.  The second possibility is that there’s no tuna.

Subway’s tuna sandwiches have been tested in the past, netting different results.  When Inside Edition conducted a similar test using sandwiches from Queens, N.Y., and a lab in Florida called Applied Food Technologies, they reportedly discovered that Subway’s sandwiches did contain tuna.  The lab in the Times story was said to have asked that its name not be printed for fear of hurting future business opportunities. Wimps.

Previously, the Washington Post had reported in January that the world’s largest sandwich chain was facing a class-action lawsuit in California that claims Subway’s tuna sandwiches “are completely bereft of tuna as an ingredient.”

A Subway spokeswoman, in an email to the New York Times at the time, said: “There simply is no truth to the allegations in the complaint that was filed in California.  Subway delivers 100 percent cooked tuna to its restaurants, which is mixed with mayonnaise and used in freshly made sandwiches, wraps and salads that are served to and enjoyed by our guests.”

I like Subway…and it was Dr. Bortrum’s favorite.  This coming Fourth of July I would have been getting him a turkey and provolone, with all the works, his go-to meal.

Foreign Affairs

Afghanistan: Taliban insurgents have captured more than 50 of 370 districts in Afghanistan since May, the UN special envoy said on Tuesday, warning that increased conflict posed a risk of insecurity to many other countries.

Deborah Lyons told the UN Security Council that the announcement earlier this year that foreign troops would withdraw sent a ‘seismic tremor’ through Afghanistan.

“Those districts that have been taken surround provincial capitals, suggesting that the Taliban are positioning themselves to try and take these capitals once foreign forces are fully withdrawn,” Ms. Lyons said.

“All of the major trends – politics, security, the peace process, the economy, the humanitarian emergency, and of course Covid – all of these trends are negative or stagnate,” Lyons told the 15-member Security Council.  “The possible slide toward dire scenarios is undeniable.”

Lyons added: “Preserving the rights of women remains a paramount concern and must not be used as a bargaining chip at the negotiating table.  Men’s rights are not negotiable.  Women’s rights are not negotiable.  Human rights are not negotiable.”

Today, President Biden met in the Oval Office with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and his former political foe, Abdullah Abdullah, where he called on Afghans to decide the future of their country after 20 years of war and as government forces struggle to repel Taliban advances.

Biden called them “two old friends” and said U.S. support for Afghanistan was not ending but would be sustained despite the U.S. pullout.

“Afghans are going to have to decide their future, what they want,” said Biden, saying the “senseless violence has to stop.”

Ghani said he respected Biden’s decision and that the partnership between the two nations is entering a new phase.  He added after that Biden had clearly articulated the U.S. embassy would continue to operate and security aid would continue and in some cases move on an accelerated schedule.

David Ignatius / Washington Post

“As U.S. troops head toward the exit in Afghanistan, the menu of policy options to prevent another ruinous civil war is depressingly meager.  And vignettes from across the country offer a glimpse of the torment ahead.

“In northern Afghanistan, residents of shelters for battered or homeless women are fleeing in advance of the fighting between the Taliban and the government, says Annie Pforzheimer, a retired U.S. diplomat who served two tours in Kabul and is now a director of a group called Women for Afghan Women. She won’t discuss where the women are heading, for fear it could endanger them.

“In Kabul, young Afghan journalists remain ‘stoic and courageous’ as they cover the mayhem, says Saad Mohseni, whose Moby Group runs Tolo TV, the largest media operation in Afghanistan. ‘My journalists have the pain of the country written in their faces,’ he writes in a text.

“In the Afghan military, ‘the mood toward the U.S. is souring by the hour,’ as they watch the rapid retreat of American troops and contractors, says David Sedney, who spent much of the past two decades as a Pentagon official dealing with Afghanistan.  ‘As the full implications of the U.S. abandonment sink in, dynamics are in motion that could lead in many directions, almost all of them bad.’

“President Biden’s decision to withdraw U.S. troops after two decades of war is understandable, however dispiriting it is to these Afghans.  What’s harder for the Afghans to fathom is why Biden pulled the plug so quickly, with so little apparent planning for what’s next.  Leaving the modest remaining force of 2,500 U.S. troops there a while longer would have been a low-cost way of sustaining the shaky status quo.

“Instead, we have ‘rapid disintegration,’ according to Frederick W. Kagan, a former West Point military history professor who has advised three U.S. commanders in Kabul.  The Taliban, intoxicated with imminent victory, are advancing toward major provincial capitals.  The Afghan army is buckling in many areas.  And in the vacuum, ethnic militias and criminal gangs are becoming the only security for a terrified population.

“Biden has a last chance to salvage some of this wreckage when President Ashraf Ghani visits Washington on Friday.  He can’t offer Ghani U.S. military muscle – it’s too late for that. But he can pledge financial and diplomatic support that, perhaps, could allow Ghani’s government to avert total collapse. And he can mobilize the international consensus – which includes Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran – against a Taliban military takeover in Kabul.

“Biden had hoped for an intra-Afghan peace agreement before U.S. troops departed.  He won’t get that, largely because the triumphal Taliban have dragged their feet. Resolution of the conflict – on the battlefield or in negotiations – won’t come until after U.S. troops have left.  The Taliban appear startled by the speed of their advance; they have begun privately messaging Americans about the mundane realities of governing, such as operating dams or maintaining a power grid, U.S. officials say.

“ ‘I don’t think the president understood how precarious the situation would become’ as soon as he announced on April 14 that he planned to withdraw all troops by Sept. 11, says Kagan.  Biden’s pledge to remove U.S. military forces came as the Afghan fighting season was beginning.  Rampaging Taliban rebels seized about 50 district capitals after May 1.  But they’ve held back from capturing big provincial capitals such as Kandahar or Jalalabad, perhaps because they fear U.S. reprisals or maybe just because their forces are stretched.

“Although Pentagon civilian and military leaders widely opposed Biden’s decision, they have moved to implement it quickly and decisively. They don’t want scenes of last-minute chaos, with Taliban flags atop captured U.S. Army vehicles or American helicopters lifting desperate stragglers from rooftops.

“Every week, U.S. Central Command sends out a news release, as reliable as the Grim Reaper, counting the drawdown.  As of Tuesday, the Pentagon had removed the equivalent of 763 C-17 loads of materiel and disposed of 14,790 pieces of equipment.

“The Taliban is like the proverbial dog that caught the car.  It has achieved its dream of forcing American withdrawal, but now what?  Afghanistan is a much more urban and modern nation than when the Taliban were driven from power 20 years ago.  Kabul and other major cities may not fall easily; even if the army crumbles, militias will keep fighting.

“Americans grew tired of this war, but they won’t like scenes of our departure, either.  What Biden owes Afghanistan and America both is a frank explanation of what he’s doing – and how he plans to keep faith with the Afghan people to provide as honorable a retreat as possible. But for Afghanistan, and perhaps Biden, too, this will be a summer of pain.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“President Biden meets his Afghan counterpart Friday, and the White House says it is committed to providing Afghanistan ‘diplomatic, economic and humanitarian assistance.’  That’s cold comfort as emboldened Taliban militants advance across the country.

“Mr. Biden said in April that U.S. troops would leave Afghanistan by Sept. 11, and coalition forces have been departing faster than expected.  Since May the Taliban have taken more than 50 of the country’s roughly 400 districts, a United Nations official said this week.  Fighting continues in many districts, which are comparable to American counties.

“Some 8.5 million Afghans already live under Taliban control, the Long War Journal estimates, with more than 13 million in contested zones.  These numbers will keep rising absent a policy reversal from Mr. Biden.  Most of the newly captured districts surround provincial capitals, which the group will move on once U.S. and allies forces are gone.  The intelligence community believes Kabul could fall six months after the U.S. withdrawal has finished….

“Mr. Ghani wants the U.S. to keep providing air support for his troops, but Washington is committing only to limited counterterrorism operations. Either way, there aren’t realistic options for air bases outside Afghanistan. The U.S. has significant assets in the Gulf states, but the lengthy flight time erodes their usefulness.  Using aircraft carriers needed in the Pacific for these missions is strategic malpractice.

“The U.S. invaded Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks to take out al Qaeda and its Taliban sponsors.  The two groups still ‘remain closely aligned and show no indication of breaking ties,’ according to a recent U.N. report.  Islamic State also will take advantage of the security vacuum. All this threatens the American homeland.

“Some argue that terrorism should be deprioritized in favor of great power competition with China. But as China builds up its air power in the region, Mr. Biden is abandoning useful air bases in Afghanistan, especially Bagram near Kabul.  No one is arguing for a massive troop commitment.  A few thousand troops in the country is manageable, and next best is enough troops to defend a residual force of private contractors to maintain Afghan air support for its forces.

“The abrupt pullout has undermined NATO unity as some Europeans are unhappy with Mr. Biden’s decision.  And what are the Taiwanese thinking as the U.S. walks away from this commitment?  News reports say Mr. Biden has finally agreed to move thousands of Afghan translators to third countries as they await the U.S. visas they were promised. But this will have to be done fast to avoid a slaughter.

“A Pentagon spokesman said this week that the pace of the retreat could change but that all U.S. forces would be gone by September.  By completing the withdrawal that Donald Trump started, Mr. Biden shares responsibility for the bloody consequences.”

Editorial / Washington Post

“An avoidable tragedy is looming in Afghanistan for the interpreters, translators and others who served shoulder-to-shoulder with U.S. and NATO forces.  President Biden has very little time remaining to avert it.  The United States should immediately begin preparations for an orderly evacuation of the Afghan allies so they can’t be hunted down by the Taliban. To leave them behind would be a sorry betrayal….

“Previously, our hope for these Afghan allies was a congressionally approved visa path to enter the United States.  But the special immigrant visas (SIV) have been plagued by delays and carry strict requirements that have left applicants waiting years for approval.  According to the International Refugee Assistance Project, about 18,000 Afghan interpreters and others are in the pipeline.  The total SIV program cap is currently 26,500 visas, of which, as of December, 15,507 had been issued and 10,993 remained.  If families are included at an estimated rate of four per visa, the total number of people needing processing could be closer to 70,000.

“While Secretary of State Antony Blinken has asked Congress to raise the visa ceiling by 8,000 and has pledged to surge staff into visa processing, that is no longer enough.  Waiting for visas in country will put people at risk.  Moreover, the pandemic has made the situation worse; the U.S. Embassy in Kabul has suspended visa operations because of a wave of coronavirus infections in the country and among embassy staff.

“Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.) and others have called on the administration to actively plan for an evacuation to Guam, where the Afghans could then continue to be processed for visas without fear for their lives.  Guam Gov. Lou Leon Guerrero has written to Mr. Biden expressing a willingness to be part of the planning.  In the final days of the Vietnam War, more than 111,000 South Vietnamese were evacuated on ships and planes by the United States to Guam, where they were housed in tent cities while being processed for resettlement….

“The United States has a profound obligation to take care of those who risked their lives to serve alongside its troops.  It cannot leave their fate to chance or ill-prepared afterthought.”

Iran: Amid the lowest turnout in the Islamic Republic’s history, Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline judge who is under U.S. sanctions for human rights abuses, secured a landslide victory on Saturday in Iran’s presidential election, capturing 62% of the vote in a four-man race. Raisi had been widely expected to win, having been endorsed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.  The new government takes over in early August.

Millions of Iranians stayed home in defiance of a vote they saw as tipped in Raisi’s favor.

Raisi has promised to create millions of jobs and tackle inflation, without offering a detailed political or economic program.

He also said Monday he wouldn’t meet with President Joe Biden nor negotiate over Tehran’s ballistic missile program and its support of regional militias, sticking to a hardline position, and thus rebuffing a key goal of the Biden administration as it negotiates a revival of the 2015 nuclear deal.

“Regional and missiles issues are not negotiable,” said the 60-year-old senior cleric.

Raisi also described himself as a “defender of human rights” when asked about his involvement in the 1988 mass execution of some 5,000 people.

In his first press conference in Tehran, Raisi said, “The U.S. is obliged to lift all oppressive sanctions against Iran.”

Biden has said he wants any fresh agreement on Iran’s nuclear activities to lead to broader discussions on how to reduce its military footprint in the Middle East.  But in his first press conference, Raisi ruled out such an approach.

As a central part of its military strategy in the Middle East, Iran funds and arms militias that help it exert influence and threaten its foes.  It also has built up a formidable missile arsenal.

Raisi, a veteran judge but a foreign-policy neophyte, is expected to hew to the views of Ayatollah Khamenei, including a more adversarial attitude toward the West than departing President Hassan Rouhani.

As for the nuclear talks in Vienna, they were adjourned Sunday as remaining differences cannot be easily overcome, Tehran’s delegation chief said.

“We are now closer than ever to an agreement but the distance that exists between us and an agreement remains and bridging it is not an easy job,” Abbas Araqchi told Iranian state TV. 

U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday, “There is still a fair distance to travel on some of the key issues, including on sanctions and on the nuclear commitments that Iran has to make,” Sullivan said on ABC’s “This Week with George Stephanopoulos.”

“We will see if the Iranian negotiators come to the next round of talks prepared to make hard choices that they have to make,” Sullivan added.

The election of Raisi is not expected to disrupt Iran’s effort under Ayatollah Khamenei, who has final say on all major policy, to restore the nuclear pact and be rid of tough U.S. oil and financial sanctions.

Iran has breached the nuclear accord’s strict limits on uranium enrichment and has said its moves would be reversed if the United States rescinded the sanctions.

New Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett condemned Raisi’s election and said it would be a “regime of brutal hangmen” with which world powers should not negotiate a new nuclear deal.

“(Raisi’s) election is, I would say, the last chance for world powers to wake up before returning to the nuclear agreement, and understand who they are doing business with,” Bennett said in a statement.

Syria: Editorial / Washington Post

“ ‘We’ll find out within the next six months to a year whether or not we actually have a strategic dialogue that matters,’ President Biden said last week following his first summit meeting with Vladimir Putin.  In fact, the answer may be known much sooner than that.  Among the issues Mr. Biden raised with the Russian ruler was Syria – and in particular, the reauthorization of a humanitarian aid corridor run by the United Nations that is crucial to providing food, medicine and coronavirus vaccinations to 2.8 million people, most of them women and children.  Moscow is hinting it may block the UN Security Council resolution needed to keep the aid flowing after July 10, triggering a dire humanitarian crisis.  If he is interested in cooperation with Mr. Biden, one of the simplest and easiest things Mr. Putin could do is relax that position.  So far, he hasn’t.

“Sustaining the flow of more than 1,000 UN trucks a month through the Bab al-Hawa border crossing between Turkey and northwestern Syria ought to be an easy decision for the Security Council.  Senior UN officials and aid organization representatives told the council Wednesday that without it, 1.4 million people, many of them refugees from other parts of Syria living in camps, would lose the food boxes they depend on for survival.  In addition, a UN program to vaccinate people – including front-line aid workers – against the coronavirus would cease, at a moment when infection rates in the region are spiking.  The likely results would be an uncontainable epidemic, the quick spread of other diseases and, quite possibly, famine.  UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres appeared before the council to warn of ‘devastating consequences’ if the border crossing did not remain open, and most of the council’s members strongly agreed.

“Not, however, Russia, which has been seeking to shut off UN aid corridors into northern Syria so that its ally, the blood-soaked Damascus regime of Bashar al-Assad, can starve into submission areas of the country it does not control… Last year, the Russians forced the closure of three of the four cross-border humanitarian delivery routes to Syria; they argue that the United Nations should deliver aid only under the Assad government’s auspices.  Yet the regime has demonstrated that it will use food as a weapon.  It previously blocked UN aid deliveries to rebel-held areas around Damascus to the point of famine….

“(Russia’s) UN ambassador, Vasily Nebenzya, was unmoved (by the pleas of the international community).  He claimed that the UN corridor was being used ‘for the benefit of terrorists holed up in Idlib’ and that shipments from Assad-controlled territory were ‘the only legitimate way of delivering humanitarian assistance.’ If Russia sticks to that position through the next two weeks, Mr. Biden will have his answer about Mr. Putin.”

China: Hong Kong’s 26-year-old Apple Daily tabloid-style newspaper was forced to fold at midnight on Wednesday, with its online platforms – including its Facebook and Twitter accounts – ceasing operations, hours after national security police detained its lead editorial writer that morning as part of an ongoing crackdown.

Less than a week earlier, the paper’s editor-in-chief, publisher and three other executives were arrested by national security police, accused of collusion with foreign forces by running articles calling for sanctions against the city and mainland China.

“Hong Kongers Bid a Painful Farewell in the Rain,” the final edition’s front page read, with a photograph from the newsroom’s vantage point.  The issue had the day’s news, and also reflected on its past coverage, its insubordinate character and its shared fate with the city.  “The apple was buried in the mud, but its seeds grew into a tree with bigger, even more beautiful apples,” the paper said in a goodbye letter to readers titled “Until We Meet Again.”

Across the city, people of all ages formed lines from around midnight and through the morning to buy copies from convenience stores and newsstands before the paper disappeared forever.

Just a reminder.  China imposed a sweeping national security law on Hong Kong in June 2020 that punishes what authorities broadly refer to as secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign forces with up to life in prison.  Government officials in Beijing and Hong Kong said the law would target only a small number of “troublemakers” who threaten national security, and that the rights and freedoms of ordinary Hong Kong people would be protected.

Of course that has hardly been the case.  The government is using the law to crush dissent, period, despite Beijing’s denials.

In a statement, President Biden called on Beijing to stop targeting the independent press and to release detained journalists and media executives.

“People in Hong Kong have the right to freedom of the press.  Instead, Beijing is denying basic liberties and assaulting Hong Kong’s autonomy and democratic institutions,” the president said.

Taiwan condemned the closure of the Apple Daily on Thursday as “political oppression,” saying it sounded the death knell for freedom of speech and the media.

Taiwan’s China policy-making Mainland Affairs Council said in a statement:

“This unfortunate incident has not only sounded the death knell for freedom of press, publication, and speech in Hong Kong, but has also allowed the international community to see for themselves the Communist Party regime’s totalitarianism and autocracy.

“The human pursuit of freedom and democracy and other universal values will not be ended by history, but history will always record the ugly face of those in power suppressing freedom.”

North Korea: Kim Yo Jong, Kim Jong Un’s sister, has ridiculed the United States’ hopes for an early resumption of diplomacy, saying Washington’s expectations for talks would only “plunge them into a greater disappointment.”

She was responding on Tuesday to national security adviser Jake Sullivan, who said on Sunday he saw as an “interesting signal” in a recent speech by Kim Jong Un on preparing for both confrontation and diplomacy with the U.S.

“A Korean proverb says; ‘In a dream, what counts most is to read it, not to have it,’” said Kim Yo Jong in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.

“It seems that the U.S. may interpret the situation in such a way as to seek a comfort for itself. The expectation, which they chose to harbor the wrong way, would plunge them into a greater disappointment.”

France: The far-right party topped the first round in Sunday’s regional elections in Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur, a key battleground that Marine Le Pen wants to win to boost her credibility ahead of the 2022 presidential election.  The exit polls showed The Rassemblement National winning the southern region with a narrower than expected margin over the center-right’s Renaud Muselier, who had struck an alliance with President Emmanuel Macron’s party.

The regional elections are a taste of voter mood ahead of next year and a test of the credentials of Le Pen, who has made a concerted push to detoxify her party’s image and erode the mainstream right’s vote with a less inflammatory brand of eurosceptic, anti-immigration populist politics.

A second round is being held Sunday.

Le Pen will almost certainly be Macron’s number one challenger next year, propelled by a support base fed up with crime, the threat to jobs from globalization and a distant ruling elite.  If she wins a region it would send a message that a Le Pen victory in 2022 cannot be ruled out.

But in the northern Hauts-de-France region, the center-right Les Republicains party performed stronger than expected, polling ahead of the far-right by a wider margin than expected.

Turnout was at a record low for the elections.

Canada: Leaders of a First Nation in Canada said Thursday they have found indications of at least 751 unmarked graves near the site of a former residential school in Saskatchewan, the second such announcement here in less than a month as the country reckons with the devastating legacy of one of the darkest chapters of its history.

Cowessess First Nation Chief Cadmus Delorme said the discovery was made near the grounds of the former Marieval Indian Residential School in the southeastern corner of the prairie province, confirming the stories of Indigenous elders and residential school survivors who long told of a burial site there.

“All we ask of all of you listening is that you stand by us as we heal and get stronger,” Delorme said during a virtual news conference.  “We all must put down our ignorance and accidental racism of not addressing the truth that this country has with Indigenous people.  We are not asking for pity, but we are asking for understanding.”

The announcement came a month after the discovery of unmarked graves containing the remains of 215 Indigenous children on the grounds of a former residential school in Kamloops, British Columbia.

Nearly 150,000 Indigenous children were sent to the government-funded and Catholic church-run boarding schools, which were set up in the 19th century to assimilate them and operated until the late 1990s.  Many children were forcibly separated from their families to be placed in the schools. [Amanda Coletta and Michael E. Miller / Washington Post]

Random Musings

--Presidential approval ratings….

New Gallup survey: 56% approve of President Biden’s job performance, 42% disapprove; 55% of Independents (June 1-18).  The prior split for May 3-18 was 54-40, 54 Ind.

Rasmussen: 51% approve, 47% disapprove (June 25).

A new Fox News poll released Wednesday had Biden’s approval rating at 56%, same as Gallup, with 43% disapproving.

The poll also asked voters about life in this stage of the pandemic.  Half of respondents said they believe the coronavirus has permanently changed the way Americans live, while 42% said the changes are temporary, but 70% said the shift to people working from home has been a positive development.  A healthy 65% said they have gotten the vaccine, and by a 51-42 margin, they said employers should be able to require workers to get inoculated.

--They held the New York City Mayoral primary and, thanks to the new ranked-choice voting system, we may not have a result for the Democratic primary until mid-July.  Voters will need to be patient.

Eric Adams captured round one, the first choice of 32% of those who voted in person on Tuesday or during the early voting period.

Maya Wiley, who would be literally catastrophic for the City if she was mayor, was second at 22%, Kathryn Garcia was in third at 20%, and Andrew Yang, who literally crashed and burned after being an early front-runner, was fourth at 13% and conceded.

Adams led in every borough except Manhattan, where Garcia, a former sanitation commissioner, held a commanding edge.

But here’s the thing.  There are about 200,000 absentee ballots yet to be counted and then you go through the ranked-choice process.

New Yorkers on Tuesday could rank up to five candidates in order of preference, and just picture that votes are going to be reapportioned through computerized rounds, with the person in last place getting eliminated each round, and ballots cast for that person getting redistributed to the surviving candidates based on voter rankings.  The process continues until only two candidates are left.  The one with the most votes wins.

The winner of the Democratic nomination will face Curtis Sliwa, the founder of the Guardian Angels, who handily defeated his opponent in the Republican primary but has zero chance of winning in November.

--Thomas L. Friedman / New York Times

“Like everyone else, I look forward to a summer of reconnecting with family and friends and relishing a good ole Fourth of July barbecue – unmasked! But I will be doing so with a pit in my stomach, because just beneath the surface calm in America, volcanic forces are gathering that could blow the lid off our democracy. We are living in a fool’s paradise. Enjoy it while it lasts.

“Three recent news stories have me terrified:

“First are the unfolding reports about how Donald Trump’s Justice Department secretly seized the personal data of journalists and Democrats in Congress from phone and tech companies while investigating leaks, and even secured Trump’s own White House counsel’s data.  Now imagine what would happen if Trump was re-elected in 2024 by his cultlike following and he didn’t have to worry about facing voters again?  He’d be out of control.

“Second are the efforts by Republican-dominated state legislatures to pass voter-suppression measures to retain power and reinstall Trump and his imitators – laws that in some cases just make it harder to vote and in other cases, as Vox noted in an in-depth assessment, ‘might disqualify voters for no valid reason. Or allow partisan officials to refuse to certify an election, even if there are no legitimate questions about who won.’

“And third, as The Times just reported, ‘homicide rates in large cities’ – many of them run by Democrats – were ‘up more than 30 percent on average last year, and another 24 percent for the beginning of this year.’ Soaring murder rates and policing are becoming huge Republican and right-wing-media talking points. Democrats are vulnerable.  That’s why President Biden plans to lay out a forceful anti-crime strategy on Wednesday.

“For the future of our democracy, we need to make sure that until the G.O.P. stops being a Trump cult, its power is limited. That will require many strategies but two for sure: Democrats need to block Republican efforts to decertify elections and resist efforts from their own base to defund/dismantle the police.

“Maybe Congress will pass voter-protection laws to nullify what the Trump cult is up to, but I won’t bank on it.  So, when G.O.P. lawmakers pass these voter-suppression measures and insist that they’re just trying to ensure fair elections and not targeting anyone, I hope Democrats in general and minority voters in particular (they are absolutely being targeted) respond with a massive get-out-the-vote campaign under the banner, ‘You talkin’ to me?’….

“That’s what every targeted Democratic and minority voter needs to ask the Trump-cult G.O.P. every day, everywhere: ‘You talkin’ to me?  You don’t want me to vote? Who the hell else could you be talkin’ to? Well, now I’m talking to you.  I will vote. …I will crawl, slide, slither, walk, run, wait, stand, sweat or freeze – whatever it takes, baby, but I will vote….

“(And) what do you think the response will be if your election officials or legislatures, empowered by your new anti-democratic (and anti-Democrat) election laws, actually decertify Democratic victories?  You think Democrats will just say: ‘Oh, shucks, that was too bad. The Republicans gamed the system, but, hey, what can you do?  Let’s try harder in 2026 and 2028’?

“No, they and other true Americans will see it as a big step toward unraveling the American experiment, and they will not stand for it.  It could lead to civil war.  That’s where the Trump-cult G.O.P. is taking us….

“As for policing, this issue could really sink Democrats….

“This is political dynamite (for them). The Trump-cult G.O.P. will pound them on this policing issue. Biden needs to keep rallying his party tightly around his right answer: transformed policing and sufficient policing – not defunding the police.

“Because if people feel forced to choose security over democracy – concerns about stealing outside their door over stealing an election – beware: Way too many will choose Trump and his cult.”

--At hearing in D.C. federal court for a Trump supporter who spent 10 minutes inside the U.S. Capitol during the Jan. 6 insurrection, the individual was sentenced to probation, avoiding jail, becoming the first rioter to learn their punishment in the investigation.

But Judge Royce Lamberth said the insurrection was a “disgrace” and forcefully rebuked the “utter nonsense” coming from some Republican lawmakers and other right-wing figures who are whitewashing what happened.

“I don’t know what planet they were on,” Lamberth said of the GOP lawmakers, without mentioning any names.  Recent releases of videos from the attack “will show the attempt of some congressmen to rewrite history that these were tourists walking through the capitol is utter nonsense.”

--According to a new Hill-HarrisX poll, 30 percent of Republican voters say they believe former President Trump will “likely” be reinstated to office this year.  Seventy percent of Republican respondents said such a scenario is unlikely, along with 74 percent of independents and 87 percent of Democrats.

--A Manhattan appeals court stripped Rudy Giuliani of his license to practice law in New York on Thursday, ruling that he has violated his professional oath by peddling “demonstrably false and misleading” claims about the 2020 election on behalf of his most high-profile client, Donald Trump.

The order, issued by a five-judge panel on the State Supreme Court’s appellate division, found there’s “uncontroverted evidence” that Giuliani lied when he told courts, lawmakers and the public that President Biden’s election was facilitated by widespread Democratic voter fraud.

The judges also drew a damning parallel to Jan. 6, saying Giuliani’s election lies “directly inflamed the tensions” that paved the way for the deadly attack on the U.S. Capitol.

“The seriousness of respondent’s uncontroverted misconduct cannot be overstated. This country is being torn apart by continued attacks on the legitimacy of the 2020 election and of our current president, Joseph R. Biden,” the judges wrote.

Giuliani can request a hearing within 20 days.

--According to a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, fewer than a third of Iowa’s likely voters say they would vote to reelect Republican Chuck Grassley if the U.S. Senate elections were held today.

Grassley has not yet said whether he will seek an eighth term in 2022.  If he does, his near-universal name recognition and deep ties to the state would still make him the early favorite to win.  But the new poll shows an underlying feeling among Republicans and Democrats alike that he’s served long enough. 

Nearly two-thirds of likely voters, 64%, say they think it’s time for someone new to hold Grassley’s seat.  Only 27% said they would reelect him.  Grassley is 87.

--Former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin was sentenced to 22 ½ years in prison for the murder of George Floyd, whose dying gasps under Chauvin’s knee led to the biggest outcry against racial injustice in the U.S. in generations.

The punishment fell short of the 30 years sought by prosecutors.

With good behavior, Chauvin could be paroled after serving two-thirds of the sentence, of about 15 years.

--A better-than-projected economic recovery and a massive influx of federal aid have stuffed New York state’s once-bare coffers, a reversal of fortune that is leading some fiscal watchdogs to again question the state’s decision earlier this year to increase income taxes on high earners.

Basically, the state’s income-tax projections and the projections from the comptroller’s office just keep going up.  $4 billion, then another $4 billion….

“It’s just incredible,” said E.J. McMahon, research director for the Empire Center, a fiscally conservative think tank.  “I picture the governor’s budget office as being like a drug dealer’s kitchen, with bricks of $100 bills hidden in the microwave, under the sink, in the back of the freezer.”

The state received $30 billion from the federal American Rescue Plan Act approved in March, including $12.7 billion of general aid that lawmakers plan to use over the next four fiscal years.

So, again, Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s income-tax increase this year, his first in three terms in office, was totally unnecessary.

On the other hand, there is no excuse now not to take care of priorities like funding schools that are in desperate need of help, things of that sort.

--A major U.S. government report on UFOs released today said defense and intelligence analysts lack sufficient data to determine the nature of mysterious flying objects observed by military pilots including whether they are advanced earthly technologies, atmospherics or of an extraterrestrial nature.

The report, submitted to Congress and released to the public, encompasses 144 observations of what the government officially refers to as “unidentified aerial phenomenon,” or UAP, dating back to 2004.  It was issued by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence in conjunction with a U.S. Navy-led UAP task force.

The report includes some UAP cases that previously came to light in the Pentagon’s release of video from U.S. naval aviators showing enigmatic aircraft off the U.S. East and West Coasts exhibiting speed and maneuverability exceeding known aviation technologies and lacking any visible means of propulsion or flight-control surfaces.

A senior U.S. official, asked about the possibility of extraterrestrial explanations for the observations, said: “That’s not the purpose of the task force,” but “of the 144 reports we are dealing with here, we have no clear indications that there is any non-terrestrial explanation for them, but we will go wherever the data takes us.”

All but one of them, an instance attributed to “airborne clutter,” remain unexplained, U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters during a briefing describing the findings.  For the remaining 143 cases, the government has yet to rule in or out whether the sightings might be of extraterrestrial origin, the officials said.  Nor can it say whether they were developed by a U.S. government or commercial entity, or by a foreign power.

Well, I’d say this is rather unsatisfying.

--You’ve seen the role rescue dogs have played in the tragic building collapse in Surfside, Florida.  Another example of man’s best friend.

For now, we just don’t have any facts for me to comment further.  It’s beyond awful.

--For eight straight days, June 13-20, the high temperature in Phoenix, AZ, was 114 or higher.

--Lastly, some final thoughts on Dr. Bortrum.  My father was a terrific dad growing up.  He was always there to play catch and shoot baskets.  For a while we had a routine where right after dinner when it was just the three of us, my brother off to college, I’d get out the basketball in the back driveway and invariably Dad would join me.  I know Mom was saying, ‘I’ll do the dishes.’  He was pretty good.  I was pleased when for a spell when he was in his mid-40s, he’d play at the YMCA in pickup games with much younger guys.  I know he loved the camaraderie, and the competition.

There was also a period in the ‘70s when Dad and I would open up Madison Plaza Lanes on Sunday mornings and we’d bowl three quick games and get home in time for Mom and I to go to church.

Dad would get some New York Rangers tickets annually through a work group and it was a big moment when we learned what games we had.  We’d get a playoff game here and there as well which was awesome.

Mom and Dad also had a Metropolitan Opera subscription and my brother and I were given one performance for our shot of culture each year.  We hit the wine bar with vigor at the intermission, and didn’t always stay for the second act, though that was our secret, opting for a favorite watering hole in the Village, where I’d spend the night at Harry’s place.

But Dad’s real love was golf.  I learned the game under him, not real well, to be sure, but wonderful lasting memories.  He had an excruciatingly slow backswing, due to his analytic self, which I always gave him grief about.  In his latter years, he loved playing the local par-3 with his Old Guard buddies and I heard about every round.  I was able to play with him a fair amount in that time before his balance was such he couldn’t walk on the bumpy grounds of the course.  So he then lived vicariously through my rounds with friends. 

The toughest phone calls I made this week were with his golf partners.  While they didn’t play in recent years, they were always on the phone with each other, which was great.

I talked to Dad every day and went over to check on him six days a week (every day except Fridays, folks).  I did his shopping and would wait to go over when I knew he was downstairs, eating breakfast, reading the paper.   I’d catch him up to speed on world events, and come the weekend’s golf tournament, update him on what he should be looking for.  We then talked to each other once the tournament was over.

And then Covid hit.  I was doing all the running around, exposing myself to the virus, as he was safely ensconced in the house, as long as I didn’t screw up.  We were very careful to keep our distance when I’d go over, and in the end it paid off.

But then in mid-April, there was a cascading series of health events and his idyllic final years turned into a living hell.  In a flash, a once-vibrant man, mentally, was reduced to nothing, after an initial few weeks where he could occasionally complete a sentence.  It was nine weeks of knowing the end was near, me often not knowing what was going through his mind as I visited him in the various facilities he was sent to.  It was truly heartbreaking.  It also wasn’t fair, and as I intimated the other day, I blamed myself for perhaps not acting quickly enough at a key moment, but also blaming the hospital for releasing him without any real testing the first time, which impacted my response when he suffered a second episode two days later that effectively finished him off.

Dad was wistful in his final years.  Sometimes he’d wonder if he had been a good dad.

“You kidding me?” I’d respond.  “You were a great father.”

The best.

---

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

We thank our first responders and healthcare workers. 

We pray for the Surfside community, the victims and their families.

God bless America.

---

Gold $1781
Oil $74.00

Returns for the week 6/21-6/25

Dow Jones  +3.4%  [34433]
S&P 500  +2.7%  [4280]
S&P MidCap  +4.4%
Russell 2000  +4.3%
Nasdaq  +2.4%  [14360]

Returns for the period 1/1/21-6/25/21

Dow Jones  +12.5%
S&P 500  +14.0%
S&P MidCap  +18.2%
Russell 2000  +18.2%
Nasdaq  +11.4%

Bulls 54.1
Bears 16.3…no updated figures this week

Hang in there.  Get vaccinated.  We can’t let the Delta variant get too much of a hold, or we’re going to have real problems in the fall, as much political as anything else. 

And we remember the life, and legacy, of Allen F. Bortrum.

Brian Trumbore

---