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01/16/2021
For the week 1/11-1/15
[Posted 9:30 PM ET, Friday]
Note: StocksandNews has significant ongoing costs and your support is greatly appreciated. Please click on the gofundme link or send a check to PO Box 990, New Providence, NJ 07974.
*Special thanks to Ken P. for his ongoing support.
Edition 1,135
Facts
2020 Presidential Election
Joe Biden…81,283,485…51.4%
Donald Trump…74,223,744…46.9%
Electoral College
Joe Biden…306
Donald Trump…232
*All 50 states, many with Republican secretaries of state, certified the vote.
Unemployment Rate
Jan. 2017 (when Trump took office)…4.7%
Dec. 2020 (as Trump exits)…6.7% [bottomed at 3.5%...Barack Obama inherited the Great Recession and the unemployment rate peaked at 10.0% in Oct. 2009]
GDP in the Trump Presidency (he gets a pass for 2020)
2017…2.3%
2018…3.0%
2019…2.2%
2014…2.5%
2015…3.1%
2016…1.7%
But wait, I thought the Trump Economy was the greatest ever? And Trump and Larry Kudlow were talking of 4%, 5% growth! We only got to 3% because of the tax incentives for corporations and capital investment in 2018.
Let’s look at the facts….
2003…2.8%
2004…3.8%
2005…3.3%
2006…2.9%
1992…3.6%
1993…2.7%
1994…4.0%
1995…2.7%
1996…3.7%
1997…4.4%
1998…4.5%
1999…4.8%
2000…4.1%
1983…4.6%
1984…7.2%
1985…4.2%
1986…3.5%
1987…3.5%
1988…4.2%
1989…3.7%
But hourly wages went up in the Trump presidency….well, yes, but was that because of Republican policies passed in Congress? Hardly. A big reason for the increase was because over the last few years, some major employers, i.e., Walmart, Target, Amazon et al realized that they needed to start hiking their workers’ pay! … This was hardly a Republican proposal, as us elephants have always been against hiking the minimum wage…employers/small business would be forced to lay off workers, we argued.
Federal Budget Deficit
1999…($126) billion…surplus
2000…($236)
2008…$459
2009…$1,413…Great Recession relief/recovery spending
2010…$1,294
2011…$1,300
2014…$485
2015…$438
2016…$585…Trump inherits manageable deficit
2017…$665
2018…$779
2019…$984
2020…$1,083…before Covid
2020…$3,300…with Covid
But I thought we would have so much economic growth that the deficit would come down? Facing reality in 2019, President Trump began to say, ‘well that’s the agenda for the second term.’
Yes, thanks to the Federal Reserve and historically low, now zero percent, short-term interest rates, in the competition for the investment dollar, funds flowed into the stock market, bonds/cash hardly offering a great alternative…ergo, the markets are at historic highs. Great.
But where was the new Healthcare plan we were promised from the president on day one of his presidency, and then kept being told “in two weeks we’ll be unveiling a tremendous health plan.” Three months later, Mr. President, where is the healthcare plan? “We’re working on it. In two weeks we’ll have a tremendous new plan.”
And remember how on Infrastructure, we were told by the president back in Jan. 2017, that “no one knows infrastructure better than me.” Four years later, no infrastructure program.
And remember how the trade deficit with China was such a big deal and how the United States was “getting ripped off”? Today, the deficit with China is virtually identical to when Donald Trump took office. No wonder why you haven’t heard him talk about the topic in quite a while. Instead, he’s just been lashing out, one sanction, tariff after another. No comprehensive plan whatsoever. And thousands of farmers needlessly lost their farms during the trade war. Oh sure, China finally bought some corn and soybeans late this year, but it was too late for so many.
Oh, and Donald Trump lost the House, the Senate and the White House along the way.
But then there is Covid, which courses through much of the above, like employment.
The handling of the coronavirus by President Trump was a catastrophe. Remember back in early April, as deaths began to mount, about 20,000 in number, and Trump talked about a final toll of 40-60,000 being a great accomplishment? Remember how he wanted to open up by Easter?
By May 1, there were 67,196 deaths in the U.S.
By May it was also a universal fact that masks worked to slow the spread and prevent deaths. Trump refused to set an example. His supporters followed along. The country suffered unnecessarily as a result.
Then during the campaign, he kept talking about “rounding the corner” and how the media would stop talking about the pandemic once the election was over Nov. 3. That day we hit 238,511 deaths. Tonight, we are at over 401,000. 163,000 deaths just since Nov. 3rd. The president of course hasn’t said a word. He checked out in the summer. Historians will put this failure at the top of his sorry legacy.
Next week: Trump’s foreign policy, the story of which he and his secretary of state continue to write up until the last day, to the detriment of the incoming administration.
---
Reminder of what Donald Trump tweeted early on Jan. 6:
“The States want to redo their votes. They found out they voted on a FRAUD. Legislatures never approved. Let them do it. BE STRONG!”
And then Trump said at the rally later.
“We’re going to walk down to the Capitol, and we’re going to cheer on our brave senators and congressmen and women, and we’re probably not going to be cheering so much for some of them, because you’ll never take back our country with weakness. You have to show strength, and you have to be strong,” he told the crowd of thousands of supports. He also urged his supporters to “fight like hell” to stop the congressional certification of Biden’s election victory.
He said Mike Pence should have “the courage to do what he has to do,” claiming without foundation that Pence had the constitutional power to overturn the votes which were being formally tallied in Congress that day.
“I know that everyone here will soon be marching up to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard,” Trump said. But the fuse was lit.
In his warm-up act, Rudy Giuliani had told the crowd at the Ellipse: “If we are wrong, we will be made fools of. But if we’re right, a lot of them will go to jail. So let’s have trial by combat!”
After the Capitol had been ransacked, and five people had died, Trump refused to condemn the attack, instead posting a video on Twitter in which he professed his “love” for the rioters and called them “very special.”
This Tuesday, Jan. 12, in his first public appearance since the attack on the Capitol, Trump said his speech was “totally appropriate” and he dismissed as “ridiculous” efforts by Democrats to impeach him for inciting insurrection.
“For Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer to continue on this path, I think it’s [the impeachment procedure] causing tremendous danger to our country and it’s causing tremendous anger. I want no violence,” Trump said, as he prepared to go to Alamo, Texas to check on a section of the border wall.
Trump also told reporters that “people” had assured him there was nothing wrong with his rally language.
“It’s been analyzed and people thought that what I said was totally appropriate,” without saying who these “people” were. [We’ve learned over the years that anytime he says, ‘there are people who say…’ it’s a lie.]
“If you look at what other people have said, politicians at a high level, about the riots during the summer, the horrible riots in Portland and Seattle, in various other places. That was a real problem, what they said,” Trump said. “But they’ve analyzed my speech and words and my final paragraph, my final sentence, and everybody, to the T, thought it was totally appropriate.”
Then in Alamo, Texas, Trump said:
“The impeachment hoax is a continuation of the greatest and most vicious witch hunt in the history of our country and is causing tremendous anger and division and pain, far greater than most people will ever understand, which is very dangerous for the U.S.A., especially at this very tender time.”
Addressing the call from Democrats and even some Republicans for Pence and the Cabinet to invoke the 25th Amendment of the Constitution to remove him from office before his term expires.
“The 25th Amendment is of zero risk to me but will come back to haunt Joe Biden and the Biden administration,” Trump said. “As the expression goes, ‘Be careful what you wish for.’’
Trump expressed no remorse, no contrition, no apologies. The White House, on his orders, never lowered the flag to half-staff to honor Capitol Police officer Sicknick. He never offered his condolences to Sicknick’s family.
Pennsylvania Republican Senator Pat Toomey, a staunch conservative, said over the weekend, “I think the best way for our country is for the president to resign and go away as soon as possible,” calling Trump’s behavior since the election “outrageous.”
Alaska Republican Sen. Lisa Murdowski last Friday had called for Trump to resign, while Nebraska Republican Sen. Ben Sasse said he would “definitely consider” impeachment.
Illinois Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger tweeted: “I believe there is a huge burden now on Christian leaders, especially those who entertained the conspiracies, to lead the flock back into the truth.”
Then in a statement Tuesday, Kinzinger said in part:
“There is no doubt in my mind that the President of the United States broke his oath of office and incited this insurrection. He used his position in the Executive to attack the Legislative. So in assessing the articles of impeachment brought before the House, I must consider: if these actions – the Article II branch inciting a deadly insurrection against the Article I branch – are not worthy of impeachment, then what is an impeachable offense?
“I will vote in favor of impeachment.”
And in a statement released Tuesday afternoon, the No. 3 House GOP leader, Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) said: “There has never been a greater betrayal by a President of the United States of his office and his oath to the Constitution.”
Cheney wrote:
“On January 6, 2021 a violent mob attacked the United States Capitol to obstruct the process of our democracy and stop the counting of presidential electoral votes. This insurrection caused injury, death and destruction in the most sacred space in our Republic,” Cheney wrote.
“Much more will become clear in coming days and weeks, but what we know now is enough. The President of the United States summoned this mob, assembled the mob, and lit the flame of this attack. Everything that followed was his doing.”
She added: “None of this would have happened without the President. The President could have immediately and forcefully intervened to stop the violence. He did not. There has never been a greater betrayal by a President of the United States of his office and his oath to the Constitution.”
Trump denounced Cheney by name during the speech Jan. 6 before his supporters.
“We’ve got to get rid of the weak congresspeople, the ones that aren’t any good, the Liz Cheney’s of the world, we got to get rid of them. We got to get rid. You know, she never wants a soldier brought home,” Trump said, referring to their disagreements on Afghan war policy.
Around the same time, the New York Times reported that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell thought Trump committed an impeachable offense and is glad Democrats are moving against him. McConnell did not refute the story. Rather, he thinks Trump’s behavior cost Republicans their Senate majority in the two Georgia runoff elections, the Times reported.
Earlier, the Joint Chiefs of Staff issued a force-wide statement Tuesday condemning the riot at the Capitol as a “direct assault” on Congress and the constitutional process and affirming President-elect Joe Biden will become the nation’s 46th commander in chief.
It was a rare step for a U.S. military leadership that has always sought to keep the armed forces out of the nation’s rancorous partisan politics in recent years. It came after a number of the rioters turned out to be veterans of the U.S. military.
“The violent riot in Washington, D.C. on January 6, 2021 was a direct assault on the U.S. Congress, the Capitol Building and our Constitutional process,” the top officers said. “We mourn the deaths of the two Capitol policemen and others connected to these unprecedented events.”
The Joint Chiefs said that they witnessed actions inside the Capitol that were inconsistent with the rule of law and that the rights to freedom of speech and assembly “do not give anyone the right to resort to violence, sedition and insurrection.”
The Joint Chiefs also called on the force to embody the ideals of the nation.
“As service members, we must embody the values and ideals of the nation,” the Joint Chiefs said. “We support and defend the Constitution. Any act to disrupt the constitutional process is not only against our traditions, values, and oath; it is against the law.”
“To our men and women deployed and at home, safeguarding our country – stay ready, keep your eyes on the horizon, and remain focused on the mission,” the Joint Chiefs said. “We honor your continued service in defense of every American.”
The Justice Department and FBI finally stepped forward publicly on Tuesday to say they have created a sedition and conspiracy task force to pursue charges against participants in the storming of the Capitol and are investigating any links to domestic or foreign instigators. Over 70 individuals had been charged by Tuesday and the investigation had identified 170 suspects to date, acting U.S. attorney Michael R. Sherwin of D.C. said. Those arrest figures are expected to increase into the hundreds, if not “exponentially.”
“The gamut of cases is mind-blowing,” Sherwin said. “People are going to be shocked with the egregious activity in the Capitol. No resources of the FBI or the U.S. attorney’s office will be untapped to determine if there was command and control, how it operated and how it executed these activities.”
A New Jersey congresswoman, Democrat Mikie Sherrill, whose district starts one block from where I live, said in a Tuesday Facebook address to her constituents that she witnessed lawmakers leading groups around the Capitol for “reconnaissance” a day before the riot. Sherrill said she intends to see those lawmakers “are held accountable, and if necessary, ensure that they don’t serve in Congress.” Other Democratic lawmakers have been stepping forward echoing Sherrill’s observations. Speaker Nancy Pelosi said today any lawmakers who took part in the planning of the insurrection should be expelled from the House.
Wednesday, Jan. 13….
During the impeachment debate, President Trump issued a statement:
“In light of reports of more demonstrations, I urge that there must be NO violence, NO lawbreaking and NO vandalism of any kind. That is not what I stand for, and it is not what America stands for. I call on ALL Americans to help ease tensions and calm tempers. Thank you.”
This from a president who, until his Twitter account was turned off, issued nothing but threats.
In the end, lawmakers voted to approve a single impeachment article, accusing Donald Trump of “inciting violence against the government of the United States” in his quest to overturn the election results, and called for him to be removed and disqualified from ever holding public office again.
Donald Trump became the first American president to be impeached twice, 232-197, with ten Republicans…profiles in courage, though their numbers should have been far greater.
The 10: Representatives Liz Cheney (Wy.), Jaime Herrera Beutler (Wash.), John Katko (N.Y.), Adam Kinzinger (Ill.), Fred Upton (Mich.), Dan Newhouse (Wash.), Peter Meijer (Mich.), Anthony Gonzalez (Ohio), Tom Rice (S.C.), David Valadao (Calif.).
Following the vote, Senate Majority Leader McConnell said he would consider convicting Trump on inciting the attempted insurrection – a remarkable break with the president after the two worked in lockstep for four years, and even as McConnell continually deflected questions about Trump’s behavior and rhetoric.
“While the press has been full of speculation, I have not made a final decision on how I will vote and I intend to listen to the legal arguments when they are presented to the Senate,” McConnell said in a message to his colleagues.
But at the same time, the majority leader (for another few days), was not going to call the Senate back early.
To convict Trump, 17 of the 50 Republicans in the Senate would have to join the chamber’s 50 Democrats to meet the necessary two-thirds threshold. But only a few senators are currently considered likely to oppose Trump and twenty GOP-held seats are on the ballot in 2022.
We’ll see what develops over the weekend and early next week regarding the exact timetable for any trial. Joe Biden has some important business of his own he needs the Senate to focus on as well.
Editorial / USA TODAY
“President Donald Trump incited thousands to march on Capitol Hill last week, where they sacked America’s seat of government in an effort to stop confirmation of the presidential election.
“It was an insurrectional act that demands his prompt removal from office, if not by resignation or the 25th Amendment, then through the impeachment process.
“With Trump showing no inclination to resign – he insisted Tuesday that his remarks at the pre-riot rally were ‘totally appropriate’ – the Democratic-led House of Representatives was poised to approve a resolution demanding that Vice President Mike Pence invoke the 25th Amendment to strip Trump of his presidential powers by majority consensus of the Cabinet.
“That would be the quickest way to deal with the danger Trump poses in his remaining week in office. But Pence isn’t going there, even though rioters were calling for him to be hanged after Trump called his loyal vice president a coward for putting the Constitution above phony vote-fraud conspiracies.
“So short of the 25th Amendment being invoked, House leaders say that members will vote on impeachment Wednesday – as they should. This case does not require extensive hearings or questioning of witnesses. The evidence played out in real time on television last week for all of America, and all the world, to see.
“In the weeks leading up to that day, the 45th president trafficked in lies about being robbed of re-election, stoking powerful sentiments of anger and alienation from a constituency that includes QAnon conspiracists, white supremacists and other violent extremists.
“After a ham-fisted attempt to pressure Georgia officials to ‘find’ enough Trump votes to overturn Joe Biden’s victory there, Trump beckoned his followers to Washington, D.C., last Wednesday (‘be there, will be wild’) for a rally on the day Congress was to formally certify Biden as the next president.
“On the Ellipse, Trump exhorted followers with violent imagery to ‘walk down to the Capitol’ and force upon members of Congress ‘the kind of pride and boldness that they need to take back our country,’ and reject certifying Biden as president. Trump raged at his audience to ‘stop the steal…if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore.’
“What happened next was predictable.
“As Trump retreated to the White House to watch the mayhem on television, thousands of followers – many of them chanting ‘Stop the steal!’ – attacked the domed Capitol, overwhelming police, injuring officers and temporarily disrupting the proceedings in Congress as members fled into hiding. Five people died, including a woman shot by police and an officer who was hit with a fire extinguisher. Several lawmakers forced into hiding might have contracted Covid-19 in the process.
“Could there be any stronger proof that a president whose narcissism and impulsivity know no bounds is a clear and present danger to the United States?”
Bret Stephens / New York Times
“If there’s one thing Republicans in Congress ought to consider as they weigh the merits of impeaching Donald Trump, it’s the story of the president’s relationship with Mike Pence.
“In December 2015, then-Governor Pence tweeted, ‘Calls to ban Muslims from entering the U.S. are offensive and unconstitutional.’ In April 2016, Tim Alberta reported that Pence ‘loathes Trump, according to longtime friends.’ In July of the same year, Republican strategist Dan Senor tweeted, ‘It’s disorienting to have had commiserated w/someone re: Trump – about how he was unacceptable, & then to see that someone become Trump’s VP.’
“You know what came next. Pence turned himself into the most unfailingly servile sidekick in vice-presidential history. He delivered the evangelical vote to Trump. He stood by the president at every low point, from the ‘Access Hollywood’ tape to Charlottesville, Va., to Helsinki to the Ukraine call. He indulged Trump’s fantasies about a stolen election.
“He betrayed his principles. He abased himself. Then Trump insisted that he steal the election. When Pence refused – he had no legal choice – Trump stirred the mob to go after him….
“It isn’t just that Trump managed to lose the House, the presidency and the Senate for the party. Or that most if not all of Trump’s policy victories (as conservatives see them) will soon be erased by the new administration. Or that Trump transformed the G.O.P. brand from one of law and order, of federalism and originalism, into one of incitement and riot, of cult of personality and usurpation of power.
“It’s that Trump turned against the Republican Party, a predictable move that somehow took the party by surprise. If the party doesn’t now turn against him, it will be tainted and crippled for years to come….
“Senator Mitch McConnell was eloquent and right: ‘If this election were overturned by mere allegations from the losing side, our democracy would enter a death spiral. We’d never see the whole nation accept an election again. Every four years would be a scramble for power at any cost.’….
“Republicans in Congress spent four years prostrate to the lower mind. What, other than the judges who helped affirm the legitimacy of Joe Biden’s election, do they have to show for it? The president, whom they fear, despises them merely for failing to steal the election for him. They are verbally assaulted at airports by the same angry losers whose paranoid fantasies they did so much to stoke. And Republicans will continue to live in political fear of Trump if Congress doesn’t bar him from holding office ever again.
“Now they have a chance to make a break – not clean, but at least constructive – with the proven loser in the White House. Not many Republicans deserve this shot at redemption, but they still ought to take it. The G.O.P. came back after Watergate only after its party leaders – Howard Baker, George H.W. Bush, Barry Goldwater – broke unequivocally with Richard Nixon.
“You’ll hear Republicans like the House minority leader, Kevin McCarthy, talk about the need for healing. Fine. But this sort of healing first requires cauterizing the wound. It’s called impeachment. Republicans mustn’t shrink from it.”
Rick Santorum / Wall Street Journal
“Twenty sixteen seems like a lifetime ago, but it’s been fewer than five years since conservatives like me were struggling to accept Donald Trump as the Republican nominee for president. Mr. Trump was a thrice-married new York casino magnate, who had given thousands of dollars to liberal politicians including Chuck Schumer and Kamala Harris. Now he was poised to lead the Party of Regan?
“I had my own personal confrontations with Mr. Trump. In 2011 he called me a ‘loser.’ I immediately phoned to remind the not-always successful developer that not winning at everything doesn’t make you a loser – that learning from your defeats makes you a winner. He told me I was ‘too conservative’ and ‘too pro-life.’ A few months later he endorsed Mitt Romney.
“So when he was about to secure the 2016 nomination, conservatives like me needed reassurance that he would follow through on the campaign promises he was making. Much of that reassurance came in the form of Mike Pence.
“I have known Mr. Pence for 20 years. He is a trusted conservative and, more important, a good man. He served in the House while I was in the Senate. In 2010, when we were both considering 2012 presidential runs, Mike and I had several conversations about our visions, the issues that were driving us to run, and the family considerations we were struggling with. Not until he decided to run for governor of Indiana did I feel compelled to seek the presidency.
“We have seen the vice president’s hand in much of Mr. Trump’s accomplishments over the past four years. We saw the man who called me ‘too pro-life’ become the most pro-life president, the first to address the March for Life. We saw it in the nomination of committed constitutionalists like Justice Amy Coney Barrett. And we saw it in the regulatory reforms the administration has made to improve the economic climate.
“As a solid conservative, Mr. Pence believes in our Constitution. To him, constitutional conservatism is more than a campaign slogan. It is the foundation of our republic. If we abandon it when it means our side loses, we have lost more than an election – we have lost our country.
“Ironically, it was in holding true to his commitment to the Constitution and standing up to the man who elevated him to the vice presidency that Mr. Pence did his greatest service to conservatives, this administration and the nation.
“With the president 16 blocks away, threatening the vice president with retribution, Mr. Pence issued a statement that didn’t waver or attempt to appease his boss and the crowd demanding an unconstitutional solution. By clearly and firmly standing for and by our constitutional republic, he became the indispensable leader America needed.
“Vice President John Nance Garner famously said that the office wasn’t ‘worth a bucket of warm [spit].’ For much of our history, that was probably true. But Garner likely never imagined the situation Mr. Pence faced Wednesday, when the republic rested in the vice president’s hands and he protected it.”
Reaction from overseas….
The European Union’s top diplomat said on Sunday that last week’s siege at the Capitol exposed the dangers of allowing the degradation of democratic values to go unchecked and disinformation to spread on social media.
“What we saw on Wednesday was only the climax of very worrying developments happening globally in recent years. It must be a wake-up call for all democracy advocates,” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said in a blog post. “Everybody needs to understand that if we accept setbacks after setbacks, even if they seem minor, democracy and its values and institutions can eventually and irreversibly perish,” said Borrell, who speaks on behalf of the 27 EU member states.
“In case anyone had any doubts, the events in Washington also show that disinformation constitutes a real threat for democracies,” Borrell said. “If some believe that an election was fraudulent, because their leader has been once and again telling them, they will behave accordingly.”
Borrell called for better regulation on social networks and said this could not be carried out by the companies themselves.
Maureen Dowd / New York Times
“Donald Trump’s inhumanity, his sick torrent of lies and incitement, came to its inevitable, shameful end on Wednesday, when a mob smeared blood, excrement, hate and death all over the Capitol.
‘At least Trump put my conservative siblings and me on the same page for once. We agreed – seeing the mob crash in; seeing lawmakers fearing for their lives, crouching and hiding and making calls to plead for the cavalry to come from any of the myriad federal and local police forces here, as Confederate flags waved – that this was a heartbreaking disgrace….
“Not only was a Capitol policeman killed after being hit by a fire extinguisher, the entire security apparatus meant to protect our democracy failed. Was the pathetic response to the anarchy engineered by Trump? It would not be the first time he sabotaged the government he was running. He was not even moved to protect his own lickspittle, the vice president, who was in the chamber when it was attacked.
“In New York, Donald Trump was a corrupt Joker who took cudgels to the historic friezes on Bonwit Teller. In Washington, he became something evil. He took cudgels to history itself, to our institutions, decency and democracy.
“He draped his autocratic behavior in the American flag. Surrounded by Lincoln, Washington, Jefferson, F.D.R., M.L.K. and monuments to our war dead, this coward whipped up a horde of conspiracists, white supremacists, neo-Nazis and gullible acolytes to try to steal an election for him. He said he would march to the Capitol with them, but he didn’t, of course. He watched his insurrection on TV, like the bum that he is.
“Donald Trump is ruined, along with his repellant family. Even Twitter has finally had enough…
“Josh Hawley’s political future evaporated in a cloud of tear gas, and Ted Cruz reinforced why everyone hates him.
“Only two days after the Trump mob followed orders to engage in seditious ‘trial by combat,’ as the execrable Rudy Giuliani put it, the White House put out a statement: ‘As President Trump said yesterday, this is a time for healing and unity as one Nation.’
“We will heal, once the rough beast in the White House slouches off. Something wicked this way goes.”
Trump World
--I am ticked off over Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s late foreign policy moves, with a new administration coming in next week. This is the last thing a departing secretary of state should be doing. It’s reckless.
Editorial / Washington Post
“Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been engaged in an unseemly campaign of grandstanding on his way out of office, littering his official Twitter account with political slogans and boasts of his accomplishments. Now, his self-serving theatrics are threatening to turn lethal. Over the weekend, Mr. Pompeo unveiled a flurry of 11th-hour measures eliminating decades-old restrictions on diplomatic contacts with Taiwan and slapping terrorism designations on Cuba and Yemen’s Houthi rebels.
“All three actions will create messes for the incoming Biden administration to clean up – but none more so than the Yemen measure, which international aid offices say could tip the war-torn country into famine. The Houthis control the northern part of the country, including the capital of Sanaa and the port of Hodeidah. A disastrous intervention by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates beginning in 2015 has failed to dislodge them, while pushing the Houthis into alliance with Iran. Meanwhile, the invasion helped create what the United Nations says is the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Almost half of Yemen’s 28 million people are suffering high levels of food insecurity, and four-fifths are dependent on humanitarian aid. Pockets of famine already exist in the countryside.
“The U.S. designation of the Houthis could greatly complicate the delivery of aid, by threatening with sanctions organizations that do business with the group. Mr. Pompeo said waivers and licenses would be granted to those involved in aid delivery. But as The Post’s John Hudson and Missy Ryan reported, those exemptions have yet to be finalized. And they may not be enough for banks or other private companies that finance or supply the operations.
“Mr. Pompeo justified the Houthi designation by citing missile attacks on Saudi civilian targets, such as airports and oil facilities. But the Saudis prompted those strikes with the systematic bombing of schools, mosques and markets in Houthi areas – attacks that independent investigations have concluded may constitute war crimes. Far from faulting the Saudi regime, Mr. Pompeo circumvented congressional action meant to prevent U.S. support for the bombing campaign.
“The only way to end the war and the humanitarian emergency in Yemen is through a peace settlement, which the designation of the Houthis as terrorists will impede. It’s telling that Mr. Pompeo’s measures will take effect on Jan. 19, the day before he and the Trump administration leave office. Mr. Pompeo will not have to deal with its effects: He is explicitly leaving a land mine for the Biden administration, which does not share his zeal to indulge the Saudis.
“Mr. Pompeo’s other measures have a similar booby-trap quality. One would oblige the incoming administration to infuriate Beijing – and possibly trigger a crisis – by eliminating controls on contacts between U.S. and Taiwanese officials that have been in place for 40 years. Another would restore a designation of Cuba as a sponsor of terrorism that was lifted by the Obama administration – even though the regime of Raul Castro, while unyielding in its domestic tyranny has no recent record of aiding terrorists.
“If President-elect Joe Biden and incoming Secretary of State Antony Blinken move to reverse these measures, as they should, Mr. Pompeo, who has made no secret of his presidential ambitions, will rush to score political points, at the expense of U.S. interests. It’s a cheap and cynical strategy that only underlines the judgment history likely will make of him: that he has been one of the worst-ever secretaries of state.”
--President Trump lashed out at Silicon Valley on Tuesday in his first public comments since Twitter banned him from the site, saying the industry had done a “horrible thing for our country and to our country.”
The president told reporters that the social media sites had made a “catastrophic mistake” and acted in a politically “divisive” manner.
I fully support the moves of Twitter, Facebook et al. There are plenty of outlets for aggrieved conservatives to vent on. No one is obligated to post anything inciting violence. This is not a matter of free speech.
---
The Pandemic
The last weeks have been the deadliest of the pandemic in both the U.S. and around the world. So many hospitals are stretched to the max, in desperate need of staffing. I read about Ireland every day and its struggles and just since Christmas, 5,000 healthcare workers have gotten ill there. In states like California, the system has been cracking for weeks. It’s sickening.
Covid-19 death tolls, as of tonight….
World…2,017,757
USA…401,856
Brazil…208,291
India…152,130
Mexico…139,022
UK…87,295
Italy…81,325
France…69,949
Russia…64,495
Iran…56,621
Spain…53,314
Colombia…47,868
Germany…46,537
Argentina…45,227
Peru…38,654
South Africa…36,467
Poland…32,844
Indonesia…25,484
Turkey…23,664
Ukraine…20,542
Belgium…20,294
Source: worldometers.info
U.S. daily death tolls…Sun. 1,792; Mon. 1,964; Tues. 4,259; Wed. 4,098; Thurs. 4,069; Fri. 3,805.
Covid Bytes
--As of the last report I saw from the CDC, 12.279 million first doses of Covid vaccines had been administered in the country (Fri. morning) and 31.161 million distributed.
The Trump administration said this week it planned to release Covid vaccine doses it has been holding back for the second shots and will urge states to offer them to all Americans over age 65, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar* announced. This new policy is in line with President-elect Biden’s plan unveiled last week to accelerate distribution of Covid vaccines and jump-start lagging inoculations.
At the same time, anyone flying to the U.S. will need to show proof of a negative Covid test, expanding on a similar requirement announced late last month for passengers coming from the United Kingdom.
The CDC order is to take effect on Jan. 26 and requires air passengers to get a test within three days before their flight departs to the U.S.
*Azar resigned tonight. Earlier today it became clear he lied about the vaccine stockpile, as in it currently is basically non-existent, though Pfizer is saying that for its part, it has ample supply.
--European governments said today that the credibility of their vaccination programs was at risk after Pfizer announced a temporary slowdown of deliveries of its vaccines. Shots developed by Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech began being delivered in the EU at the end of December, but around nine of the 27 EU government complained of “insufficient” doses at a meeting this week. Pfizer initially said deliveries were proceeding on schedule, but then on Friday announced there would be a temporary impact on shipments in late January to early February caused by changes to manufacturing processes to boost output.
“This situation is unacceptable,” the health and social affairs ministers of six EU states said in a letter to the EU Commission about the Pfizer delays. “Not only does it impact the planned vaccination schedules, it also decreases the credibility of the vaccination process,” the ministers from Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia said.
Germany, Europe’s largest purchaser of the Pfizer vaccine, called the decision surprising and regrettable, while Canada said it was also affected, because its supplies come from a Pfizer factory in Belgium.
Pfizer and BioNTech have contracts with the EU to supply up to 600 million doses this year. They have agreed to deliver 75 million shots in the second quarter and more later in the year. Moderna has committed to delivering 10 million doses by the end of March and 35 million each in the second and third quarter.
--Johnson & Johnson announced that its vaccine seems to generate a solid immune response, with few if any side effects, and in a single dose, but the pharmaceutical giant also revealed it had hit a production snag and would not be able to deliver said vaccine as quickly as it had promised.
J&J said its vaccine, in a limited trial of about 800 people, was 90 percent effective.
--Two members of a World Health Organization mission to China to study the origins of the coronavirus failed to clear Beijing’s health-screening procedures and were blocked from traveling to the country on Thursday. The rest of the 15-member delegation arrived on Thursday as planned in Wuhan, the original center of the pandemic, but they will not be examining the lab at the center of the controversy and search for an origin.
The delegation will quarantine for two weeks before beginning their inquiries. Their arrival came after almost a year of negotiations with the WHO, and diplomatic spats between China and other countries who demanded it allow a “robust” independent investigation.
China did report its first Covid-19 death in eight months this week on Thursday, only saying the person was in Hebei province, the main site of China’s worst outbreak in months and where new lockdowns have been imposed on tens of millions of people.
China’s national health commission reported 138 new cases of confirmed Covid-19, and 78 new asymptomatic cases, which they count separately, the highest daily tally in China since March and comes just weeks before the start of the busy new year holiday period.
--An analysis of mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows how the pandemic is bringing with it unusual patterns of death.
Deaths nationwide were 18 percent higher than normal from March 15, 2020, to Dec. 26, 2020. As the New York Times reports, at least 400,000 more Americans have died than would have in a normal year. But the Times admits the numbers may be an undercount since recent death statistics are still being updated.
--As I go to post, at least four Democratic lawmakers had tested positive for Covid in what has become a partisan issue, with Democrats blaming Republicans for not wearing masks while sheltering in secure areas on Jan. 6. But only Democrats have reported testing positive as a result of the emergency so far.
--A study led by Public Health England shows that most people who have had Covid-19 are protected from catching it again for at least five months.
Past infection was linked to an 83% lower risk of getting the virus, compared with those who had never had Covid-19, scientists found.
But experts warn some people do catch Covid-19 again – and can infect others. Officials stress people should follow the stay-at-home rules – whether or not they have had the virus.
--German Chancellor Angela Merkel told lawmakers this week that she expects a lockdown in Germany to curb the spread of Covid to last until the start of April.
“If we don’t manage to stop this British virus, then we will have 10 times the number of cases by Easter. We need eight to 10 more weeks of tough measures,” Bild quoted Merkel as saying.
Germany has been reporting record daily case and death tolls the past few weeks. If you look at a chart of the nation it’s horrific. They had beaten down the virus throughout the summer.
--Pope Francis’ personal doctor, Fabrizio Soccorsi, died as a result of “complications due to Covid,” the Vatican’s newspaper announced on Sunday. Soccorsi was hospitalized in Rome on Dec. 26 and it’s unclear exactly when he was last in direct contact with Pope Francis. Francis was in line for a vaccination this week.
Wall Street and the Economy
President-elect Joe Biden unveiled his $1.9 trillion economic relief proposal Thursday night as the opening salvo of a legislative battle that will no doubt be prolonged by the price tag and the inclusion of proposals opposed by many Republicans.
“It’s not hard to see that we’re in a once-in-several-generations economic crisis,” Biden said. “We have to act and we have to act now.”
The plan has some elements that will appeal to moderate Republicans, and thus gain favor in the Senate, including a $400 billion effort to contain the coronavirus and speed the economy’s reopening, as well as $1,400 in additional direct stimulus payments. But the proposals to more than double the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour, provide large-scale aid for state governments and offer enhanced unemployment benefits through September will meet stiff opposition.
The Biden proposal dedicates $350 billion for state and local governments, well beyond the $160bn for such funding included in a bipartisan compromise that never made it into the December package.
So we’re headed to a scaled-down compromise, but Biden has said he would unveil a second major package at a joint session of Congress next month.
As for the week on Wall Street and economic data, stocks took a breather from their all-time highs of the week before. It’s pretty difficult to rationalize being super bullish after all the gains of the past year, following last spring’s market bottom, when you have 20,000 National Guard troops in the nation’s capital, guarding against an attack from within. It also doesn’t help that Covid deaths hit new highs, and the weekly jobless claim figure, an unexpected rise to 965,000, is a horrible sign in terms of the recovery.
On the other hand, industrial production rose a strong 1.6% in December, but retail sales fell more than forecast, 0.7%, and -1.4% ex-autos. Just further proof of two different economies in America these days. It’s a similar situation in Europe, I hasten to add. In both, the service sector continues to get hammered, but those with disposable income are shopping increasingly online and keeping suppliers hopping.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for the fourth quarter continues to slide, down to 7.4% as of today.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday that the U.S. is a long way from a strong job market, an indication that the central bank’s easy-money policies will remain in place for the foreseeable future.
“Now is not the time to be talking about exit” from easy money policies, Powell said in a webcast with Princeton University, adding, “The economy is far from our goals.” In addition to high unemployment, he noted inflation was nowhere close to reaching 2% on a sustained basis, though he concedes it could spike higher at some point this year.
Powell said the Fed is also committed to its bond-buying program until it sees “substantial progress” in the labor market.
The Street is expecting the economy to grow in the 4%-5% range this year with the unemployment rate falling to 5.3% from its current 6.7%.
Speaking of inflation, we had the December readings on same and they remained tame. The consumer price index rose 0.4%, 1.4% year-on-year, with the core reading, ex-food and energy, up 0.1%, 1.6% Y/Y. The producer price index rose 0.3%, 0.8% year-on-year, while the core was at 0.1%, 1.2% Y/Y, down from a prior 1.4%.
One last item. The Treasury reported the federal budget deficit for December was $144 billion, -145.3bn prior, and $573bn for the first three months of the 2021 fiscal year. Year-on-year, the deficit is $3.3 trillion, or 15.8% of GDP.
Europe and Asia
Just one item of note for the broad eurozone, November industrial production rose 2.5% over October, but was down 0.6% from a year ago.
Separately, Germany reported its economy shrank by 5% last year as a strong state response helped limit the havoc caused by the pandemic in Europe’s largest economy.
GDP fell 5.7% in 2009 during the global financial crisis.
Brexit: We have chaos already. Chaos at the ports. From the Irish Times:
“There has been no more frustrating a place than ‘T11’ at Dublin Port for lorry drivers, customs agents and businesses since Brexit kicked in just over a fortnight ago.
“The terminal at the State’s busiest port, manned by a strengthened team of customs officials from Revenue, is where ‘red-routed’ lorries are sent if their paperwork is not in order and checks are required. Since Brexit, a lot of paperwork has not been in order.
“The problem, for now, is mostly on trade from Britain to Ireland, as the UK has a six-month phase-in period following the Brexit trade deal. That will bring more issues when it ends.”
Customs declarations are expected to surge from about one million to 20 million this year, as goods crossing the Irish Sea are subject to checks for the first time since the EU single market opened in 1992. Businesses selling goods to the EU from the UK, and vice versa, must confirm the products’ origins. So companies must make import and security declarations. And truckers/haulers have to provide shipping companies with completed pre-boarding notifications, and then you have another layer of regulatory checks for food or plant or animal origin for which Department of Agriculture veterinary inspectors require 24-hour advance notice.
As the Irish Times put it: “Applying this across a highly-integrated supply chain is akin to unscrambling an egg, applying a Kafkaesque level of paperwork to the massive volumes of business developed between Ireland and Britain during a quarter century of frictionless trade.”
Understand you might have thousands of items in each trailer and each item requires a different code and customs entry. It’s a total shitshow.
The chairman of transport group Independent Express and the Pallet Network, Owen Cooke, said: “If nothing changes, the economy is going to be brought to its knees, Ireland will be totally closed.”
It’s going to get worse next week. I’ll be writing the same stories, and no doubt for weeks and months to come.
In the here and now, expect to hear some terrible stories coming out of Northern Ireland, where supermarket shelves are literally running bare already. It is part of the UK but remains aligned with the EU single market, so an Irish Sea customs border separates it from Britain.
Also, re Brexit, as I alluded to last time, Scotland’s fishing industry is in crisis, with some companies halting exports to the European Union due to IT issues, paperwork errors and a backlog of goods. The introduction of health certificates, customs declarations and other paperwork has added days to delivery times and hundreds of pounds to the cost of each load, undermining a system that used to put fresh seafood into French shops in just over a day after it was harvested.
Scotland harvests vast quantities of langoustines, scallops, oysters, lobsters and mussels from sea fisheries along the Atlantic coast which are rushed by truck to cater to European diners in Paris, Brussels and Madrid.
Lastly, recall that the Brexit trade agreement was for the manufacturing sector, not services, and in terms of London’s financial services firms, critical to the health of the British economy, the rules on the UK-EU relationship are still being worked out.
But as Bloomberg reported today, “Thousands of traders and salespeople have already moved out of London,” many going back to the 2016 referendum, but the “next wave is likely to include the high-flyers who advise on strategy, mergers and the raising of capital, according to more than a dozen officials at global institutions. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., for one, is moving senior London investment bankers to the continent.”
Italy: At the worst possible time, Italy has a major political problem after former premier Matteo Renzi plunged the country into political chaos when he withdrew his two ministers from the cabinet, presenting a long list of grievances to Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte over how Conte had handled the health emergency and the economy. Renzi left open the door to returning to the fold so long as a new policy pact could be worked out, but his one-time partners said they wanted nothing more to do with him.
Conte has resisted calls to resign, instead signaling he wanted to take his fight for survival to parliament, with his main coalition partners backing plans to try to find so-called ‘responsible’ lawmakers from among opposition ranks to prop up the administration.
Economy Minister Roberto Gualtieri told state broadcaster RAI, “Opening a government crisis was an unprecedented act of irresponsibility.”
Conte will address both houses of parliament on Monday and Tuesday and faces confidence votes in each chamber. Experts say he could muster a majority in the lower house, but not receive one in the Senate.
So guess who is burning up the phone lines today, and all weekend?
Turning to Asia…China reported its December export data and it was better than expected as global demand for Chinese goods remained solid, while import growth quickened, customs data showed on Thursday.
Exports rose 18.1% in December from a year earlier, after a 21.1% jump in November. Imports grew 6.5% year-over-year, against a gain of 4.5% in November. China posted a trade surplus of $78.17bn in December, also more than forecast.
Overall in 2020, China’s exports rose 3.6% compared to a year earlier, while imports dropped 1.1 percent. China’s trade surplus last year was $535.03 billion, the highest since 2015.
As for the U.S., imports rose 9.8 percent in 2020 to $134.9 billion, while exports increased 7.9% to $451.8bn, or a trade surplus of $316.9bn. [The trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed to $29.92bn in December from $37.42bn in November.]
China is expected to be the only Group of 20 nation to show positive economic growth in 2020, predicted to be 1.9% by the IMF and 2% by the World Bank. [We get the official government data on Monday.]
Street Bytes
--The major indices fell this week amid the D.C. chaos, terrible news on the Covid front, including an ineffective vaccine rollout, weak retail sales, and fears the Biden recovery plan will lead to higher taxes…which of course has always been in the cards.
The Dow Jones fell 0.9% to 30814, the S&P 500 lost 1.5% and Nasdaq 1.5% as well.
But the next two weeks, aside from the tumultuous inauguration of Joe Biden, will also see a flood of earnings reports.
--U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 0.08% 2-yr. 0.12% 10-yr. 1.08% 30-yr. 1.84%
Treasuries rallied a little after a big jump in yields the prior week.
--The International Energy Agency said oil producers face an unprecedented challenge to balance supply and demand as factors including the pace and response to Covid-19 vaccines cloud the outlook.
“Producers are grappling with huge uncertainty about where this goes from here,” Tim Gould, head of energy supply outlooks and investment, told the Gulf Intelligence forum. “That’s not just in terms of economic recovery but indicators we wouldn’t necessarily normally be looking at: (such as the) levels of trust in different countries about vaccines.”
OPEC and allied countries such as Russia agreed this month to cut crude production through March in a bid to match abundant supply with demand which has sagged amid surging Covid cases while vaccine programs get underway.
“Growth in the economy, recovery in the economy will sooner or later bring oil demand back, to 2019 levels. The 2020s in our view are the last decade in which you’re likely to see increasing oil demand,” he added.
This week crude closed at $52.04 on WTI.
--Shares in Exxon Mobil fell nearly 5% today after the Securities and Exchange Commission announced it had launched an investigation after an employee filed a whistleblower complaint last fall alleging XOM had overvalued a key asset in the Permian Basin, as first reported by the Wall Street Journal. Exxon shares had risen over 10% prior to this news, helped in part by a ‘buy’ recommendation from J.P. Morgan, the first such outright ‘buy’ in seven years.
--We had the first major bank earnings this week…
JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported a higher fourth-quarter profit, as strength in trading and investment banking offset the drag of low borrowing rates on interest income at the largest U.S. bank’s lending business.
Net income rose to $12.1 billion, or $3.79 per share, from $8.5 billion, or $2.57 per share. Revenue rose 3% to $30.2 billion, far above expectations. During the quarter, it released credit reserves of $2.9 billion, adding 72 cents to its earnings per share, so, ex-reserves, the bank reported net income of $9.9bn, or $3.07 per share, still well above the Street’s forecast of $2.62, according to Refinitiv.
In the fourth quarter, JPMorgan’s profit was boosted by lower loss provisions, while revenue from capital markets and investment banking also propped up its numbers. But the bank cautioned that demand for loans was likely to remain sluggish this year.
“You will have a better economy in the second half [of the year] because we have the vaccine coming, we have fiscal stimulus and people have saved up a lot of money,” CEO Jamie Dimon said. “There will be a lot of pent-up demand and, hopefully, optimism because of the fact that we are getting through this mess. By sometime this summer you could have a very heathy economy.”
Dimon also vowed to open branches in states where it has no street presence and said it would buy back $4.5 billion worth of stock starting this quarter.
“Our capital cup runneth over,” he said.
While the pandemic has caused a plunge in short and long-term interest rates that hurt interest income, the Wall Street arms of the biggest banks have benefited from volatility in global financial markets, a rush for stock market listings and emergency corporate fundraising.
Trading revenue rose 20% to $5.9 billion. Investment banking revenue surged 37%.
Citigroup reported earnings that fell 3% year-on-year in the fourth quarter to $4.63 billion, or $2.08 per share, which was well ahead of the $1.31 consensus. Revenue fell 10.2% to $16.5bn, generally in-line with expectations. Citi’s Global Consumer Banking segment was the main culprit for the revenue decline, with sales in the segment dropping 14% to $7.31 billion, driven by lower card volumes and lower interest rates across all regions.
Strong trading performance was more than offset by lower revenues in Treasury and Trading Solutions, Investment Banking, and Corporate Lending. Investors were spooked by the reduction in Citi’s expected credit losses, far less than expected, $25.0bn vs. $26.4bn at the end of Q3.
But Citi shares, like all bank stocks, have had quite a run since the Pfizer vaccine news and were up strongly early this year so a pullback was to be expected.
Wells Fargo & Co. reported a quarterly profit that beat Street estimates, as stabilizing credit costs helped offset the hit from low interest rates. The bank posted lower overall costs in the fourth quarter, in line with a broader long-term move to keep expenses tight as CEO Charles Scharf takes tough measures to shift the company’s fortunes.
Costs associated with bad loans decreased $823 million compared to last year and remained far below the level seen in the first half of the year when the bank racked up more than $14 billion in provision expenses.
Headcount in its consumer and commercial banks fell 7% and 6%, respectively. Cost-cutting plans are a top priority as Scharf carves out changes across the operation.
Net-interest income fell 17% to $9.28 billion, while total revenue fell 10% to $17.93 billion. But Wells reported net income of $2.99bn for the fourth quarter, compared with $2.87bn a year ago.
--Boeing Co. fell further behind in its five-decade rivalry with Airbus in the global plane-making business.
Airbus easily retained its No. 1 spot in 2020 as Boeing on Tuesday reported a big decline in orders and deliveries. It handed over just 84 passenger jets to airline customers, down almost 90% from a peak in 2018.
Boeing has become more reliant on sales of cargo and military jets to ease the strain on its finances caused by the prolonged grounding of the 737 MAX and manufacturing problems that have halted deliveries of the 787 Dreamliner.
The plane maker handed over 157 jets last year, including cargo and military planes, trailing the 566 deliveries at Airbus.
The European aerospace giant delivered its first jetliner in 1974 and ended last year with orders for 7,184 planes compared with 4,223 at Boeing.
Boeing could face compensation claims from 787 customers for delivery delays and may have to book a charge of as much as $3 billion against the long-term profits of the program, analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. recently said. All production is being moved to the Charleston, S.C. plant in March.
As for the crash of the Boeing 737-500 off the coast of Indonesia last Saturday, killing all 62 on board, there have been no real details. Shortly after takeoff from Jakarta, the aircraft plunged 10,000 feet in less than a minute. One of the two black boxes has been recovered. I did see a story that because of the pandemic and reduced air travel, it was the first flight for this particular aircraft in nine months, so you obviously wonder about the pre-flight maintenance.
--Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian expects 2021 to be “the year of recovery” after the coronavirus pandemic cut operating revenue by 64% and prompted its first annual loss in 11 years. “We don’t anticipate that by the summer travel will be back anywhere close to where it previously was, but it will be a meaningful improvement, sufficient to be able to drive profitability for us in the back half of the year,” Bastian told Reuters.
The strength of the recovery of course depends largely on the pace of vaccine rollouts and people’s appetite for flying after a year that nearly brought global travel to a halt.
In the first quarter, Delta expects revenue to fall by 60% to 65% from a year ago and its scheduled flight capacity to shrink by 35%. The airline is continuing to block middle seats at least through March 30, and expects the actual capacity it sells to fall by around 55%.
“When the demand for air travel picks up because of confidence, that’s going to be the indication that we start selling those middle seats,” Bastian said.
Business travel should pick up in the second half of the year but remain muted for a period of time, he said. But a recovery in international travel, which has been hit hard by travel bans, will take at least another year and Bastian said the airline would continue to burn through $10 million to $15 million a day in the first quarter.
Global airline industry body IATA believes a return to positive cash flow for the industry might not happen this year.
For 2020, Delta, the first U.S. airline to post results for the year, reported a $12.4 billion loss – its first since 2009. It recorded a $4.8 billion profit a year earlier. It lost $755 million in the fourth quarter.
Delta has avoided furloughs but said nearly 18,000 employees, or 20% of its workforce, decided to leave the company in 2020. It does not intend to furlough any employees once the second round of government payroll support for airlines expires in March.
Separately, Delta has put 880 people on its no-fly list for not complying with its mask requirements and has banned others from flying with the airline for harassing other passengers or unruly behavior related to the election results, a spokesman said. Last week, for example, supporters of Donald Trump heckled Utah Senator Mitt Romney on a Delta flight from Salt Lake City to Washington, D.C.
And related to this last item, the head of the Federal Aviation Administration, Steve Dickson, told CNBC on Thursday there has been an unsettling rise in disruptions on commercial flights in recent days related to the election and the rioting at the Capitol.
President-elect Biden plans to mandate facial coverings for all air passengers, which all the major U.S. airlines will endorse, though a group representing them wants Biden to lift it once the coronavirus pandemic ends and give them flexibilities in enforcing it.
As for the TSA checkpoint travel numbers, post-holidays, they have come crashing down.
1/14…36 percent of 2020 levels
1/13…30
1/12…31
1/11…36
1/10…41
1/9….42
1/8….37
1/7….38
1/6….37
1/5….42
1/4….49
--Twitter Inc. CEO Jack Dorsey said on Wednesday that banning President Trump from the social media platform after last week’s violence at the U.S. Capitol was the “right decision,” but said it sets a dangerous precedent.
Twitter removed Trump’s account, which had 88 million followers, citing the risks of further violence.
“Having to take these actions fragments the public conversation,” Dorsey said on Twitter. “They divide us. They limit the potential for clarification, redemption, and learning. And sets a precedent I feel is dangerous: the power an individual or corporation has over a part of the global public conversation.”
Republicans said the move quelled the president’s right to free speech. German Chancellor Angela Merkel also warned through a spokesman that legislators, not private companies, should decide on potential curbs to free expression.
In his Twitter thread, Dorsey said while he took no pride in the ban: “Offline harm as a result of online speech is demonstrably real, and what drives our policy and enforcement above all.”
Even so, he added: “While there are clear and obvious exceptions, I feel a ban is a failure of ours ultimately to promote healthy conversation.”
Both Twitter and Facebook banished President Trump, and then Instagram and Snap Chat, while Google, Amazon.com and Apple banned (suspended) social media app Parler from their mobile app stores, blocking Android and iPhone users from downloading it from their outlets.
--Administration policy on how to treat Chinese companies that publicly trade in the United States has been a friggin’ mess these last few weeks. Wednesday, the Treasury Department blocked a Pentagon effort to add Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd to a banned American investment list on grounds they aided the military.
The decision removes uncertainty hanging over Chinese social media and gaming leader Tencent and Alibaba, the latter founded by billionaire Jack Ma, that is under intense regulatory scrutiny by Beijing regulators.
But then Thursday, the administration imposed sanctions on officials and companies for alleged misdeeds in the South China Sea and imposed an investment ban on nine new firms.
The new CNOOC (Chinese National Offshore Oil Corporation) restrictions would not apply to crude, refined fuels and liquid natural gas and do not apply to existing joint ventures with CNOOC that do not operate in the South China Sea.
The nine added to the Pentagon’s list of companies with alleged ties to the Chinese military include planemaker Comac and phone maker Xiaomi Corp. Americans have to divest holdings of the blacklisted firms by Nov. 11, 2021.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said in Beijing on Friday that China firmly opposed the new sanctions. “This action is against the trend of the times and is against its self touted market competition and international economic trade rules,” he said.
The Commerce Department accused CNOOC of harassing and threatening offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction in the South China Sea to drive up the political risk for its rivals, including Vietnam.
--Intel Corp. ousted CEO Bob Swan in a surprise move to some, not a surprise to others, that pivots the semiconductor giant closer to its engineering roots after a period of technology missteps, market-share losses and pressure from a hedge fund. Swan is being succeeded by VMware Inc. chief Pat Gelsinger effective Feb. 15. Gelsinger had once been Intel’s technology chief, and has served as CEO of the business-software provider since 2012.
Swan was only in the top job two years, having joined Intel as chief financial officer in 2016, and then named interim CEO two years later, after which he was formally given the top job in January 2019. It was a disastrous tenure all around.
--Target Corp. said Wednesday that winter holiday sales rose solidly as more shoppers bought goods online, adding to a series of strong results from the retailer during the pandemic.
Comparable sales, those from stores or digital channels operating for at least 12 months, rose 17% in November and December from a year earlier. Store-based sales increased 4.2%, while digital sales more than doubled during that period, driven by same-day online pickup and delivery orders, the company said.
“The momentum in our business continued in the holiday season with notable market share gains across our entire product portfolio,” Target CEO Brian Cornell said in a statement.
The company will be reporting full quarterly earnings later.
--Albertsons Cos. reported stronger sales growth than some rival food sellers as consumers continue to buy more groceries than usual during the pandemic.
After booking strong sales to consumers who spent most of 2020 cooking at home, Albertsons and other grocers are working to keep sales momentum and hold on to customers who they hope will make some of their pandemic-era eating habits permanent. Many consumers are shopping for groceries less frequently, buying greater amounts of food when they do go out.
“We continue to see fewer trips per household but larger baskets,” Albertsons Chief Executive Vivek Sankaran said Tuesday on a call with analysts.
Boise, Idaho-based Albertsons said sales at stores open at least 15 months, excluding fuel, rose 12.3% for the quarter ended Dec. 5. The sales growth was a slight decline from the prior quarter, when the company posted a 13.8% increase, but it beat expectations and was higher than the sales growth at rivals Kroger Co. and Walmart.
Albertsons said digital sales more than tripled and that it has accelerated its rollout of pickup services.
--Chinese car sales declined 6.8% last year, as the world’s largest market for automobiles shrank for a third straight year. But this was viewed as a success in the context of 2020. Global car sales are estimated to have fallen 15% last year, according to research firm IHS Markit, while U.S. sales are also expected to have dropped about 15%.
Auto makers in China sold 19.29 million passenger vehicles last year, the China Passenger Car Association said Monday, down roughly a fifth on 2017, the market’s peak.
The association is calling for car sales in China to rise 7% in 2021. Sales were up 6.6% year-on-year in December.
One in six new cars are premium, according to IHS Markit.
Mercedes-Benz maker Daimler AG said its China sales increased 11.7% last year, even as its global sales declined 7.5%. Audi and BMW reported their sales were up in China 4.4% and 6.4% in the first nine months of 2020 respectively.
Tesla sold more than 138,000 China-made Model 3 sedans last year in China, according to the passenger-car association.
--Ford Motor Co. said it sold 190,916 vehicles in the Greater China region in the final quarter of 2020, representing 30% growth from the same period a year earlier. This is the third successive quarter of sales growth following a 25% increase in Q3 and a 3% rise in Q2.
Sales of Ford-branded vehicles rose 25% year-on-year in Q4, while sales of Lincoln- and JMC-branded vehicles climbed 75% and 28%, respectively.
The automaker said it sold 602,627 vehicles in mainland China, Macau, Hong Kong and Taiwan in 2020, which is up 6.1% from the previous year.
Separately, Ford said it will stop building vehicles in Brazil in an effort to shore up money-losing operations overseas, part of a broader turnaround effort under new Chief Executive Officer Jim Farley.
Ford said it will close all three of its factories in Brazil, eliminating about 5,000 jobs. Ford will continue to sell vehicles in Brazil and other South American markets with cars made at its remaining factories in Argentina and Uruguay, as well as other regions.
Ford said it would take $4.1 billion in charges related to the restructuring.
--The world’s largest money manager, BlackRock Inc., reported its fourth-quarter profit rose 19% to $1.5 billion, with revenue rising 13% to about $4.5 billion. Assets surged to $8.7 trillion.
Rising markets benefited BlackRock as pensions, endowments and investors took bullish bets on the prospect of a return to global growth after the devastations from the pandemic.
Money flowed into equity, fixed income and alternative investments, with the biggest chunk of the new money going into bond funds.
The $8.7 trillion “is huge, large, and eye popping,” BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said in an interview. “We’re still a very small component of the world’s capital markets.” He added, “I believe we have a huge opportunity going forward.”
--Shake Shack laid out plans to open almost twice as many restaurants this year as last.
“We believe there is pent-up demand for food and experiences,” CEO Randy Garutti said at an investor conference. “Adversity is a terrible thing to waste.”
The burger chain has $175 million in the bank, so it can afford to grow even though its financial chief acknowledged that the operating environment remains “extremely challenging.” Sales fell 28% last year at restaurants open at least 12 months and sank 49% in the fourth quarter in Manhattan, where restaurateur Danny Meyer started the company with a cart in Madison Square Park 20 years ago.
Underscoring the difficulties faced by full-service restaurants, Meyer closed Gramercy Tavern and his Union Square Hospitality Group’s other establishments when the pandemic struck in March, costing 2,000 jobs. The state comptroller’s office estimates 12,000 restaurants and bars in the city won’t survive the winter.
Their loss could be fast food’s gain.
Diminished competition is boosting the pricing power of fast-food operators, and now you’re seeing a surge in chicken sandwich innovation, from McDonald’s and Burger King, to match the offerings of Chick-fil-A and Popeye’s.
There are now 300 Shake Shacks, and Garutti said he plans to open up to 40 company-owned restaurants this year, up from 20 in 2020. He expects to add up to 20 new franchised locations, four more than last year, including one at the Vince Lombardi Travel Place on the New Jersey Turnpike, a famous rest stop for us locals. Somehow I can’t imagine this. It used to be incredibly disgusting, but then I haven’t been there in years and I know changes have been made.
--We note the passing of Sheldon Adelson, who was as famous for his luxury hotels, casinos and convention centers on the Las Vegas Strip as he was for the hundreds of millions he donated to the Republican Party. Adelson died Monday after a battle with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He was 87.
“Sheldon was the love of my life,” his wife, Miriam, said in a lengthy statement Tuesday. “He was my partner in romance, philanthropy, political activism and enterprise. He was my soulmate.”
Adelson was a Boston native and Korean War vet, who, along with business partners, bought the Sands Hotel and Casino in 1988 and, a year later, built the Sands Expo and Convention Center, a then-innovative collaboration that drew millions to the Strip for work, then play.
He continued expanding, tearing down the hotel in 1996 and raising the $1.5bn Venetian in its place, and expanding to Macau with another Sands hotel in 2004; the Ventia Macao opened in 2007 and the same year, he launched the Palazzo back home on the Strip.
Adelson was originally a Democrat and switched parties after his bank account began exploding and donated $82.5 million to Republican groups during the 2016 election cycle, as well as $5 million to Trump’s inauguration committee.
Between the 2018 and 2020 cycles, he donated an estimated $350 million to various GOP candidates and campaigns. By the time of his death, Adelson was considered the nation’s most influential GOP donor, at times setting records for individual contributions during a given election cycle. Politico once called him “the dominant pioneer of the super PAC era.” He also demanded uncritical support of Israel as part of the GOP platform.
Forbes recently ranked him as the 19th richest American with an estimated net worth of $35 billion.
“He was an American patriot: a U.S. Army veteran who gave generously to wounded warriors and, wherever he could, looked to the advancement of these great United States. He was the proudest of Jews, who saw in the state of Israel not only the realization of an historical promise to a unique and deserving people, but also a gift from the Almighty to all of humanity,” his wife wrote.
Adelson brought singing gondoliers to the Las Vegas Strip and foresaw correctly that Asia would be an even bigger market.
“If you do things differently, success will follow you like a shadow,” he said during a 2014 talk to the gambling industry in Las Vegas.
When asked what he hoped his legacy would be, Adelson said it was his impact in Israel. He donated $25 million to Israel’s Yad Vashem Holocaust Memorial and was closely aligned with the conservative Likud Party.
--Fox News and CNN announced substantial lineup changes Monday, as cable news channels look to capitalize on continued viewer interest in politics two months after the election.
Fox is expanding its opinion programming into the 7 p.m. hour with “Fox News Primetime,” a show that will feature a rotating group of opinion hosts. It will replace “The Story,” a news program anchored by Martha MacCallum.
CNN is adding another hour for anchor Jake Tapper, the 5 p.m. block currently occupied by “The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer,” while senior political correspondent Abby Phillip will host a Sunday program.
Pro-Trump channels like One America News and Newsmax are vying for the Fox News audience of conservative viewers. Fox News still draws more viewers than CNN or MSNBC in prime-time, when conservative opinion hosts like Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham attract big audiences.
Among the changes at Fox News, John Roberts and Sandra Smith will anchor a two-hour news program, “America reports,” beginning at 1 p.m. MacCallum will be paired with Bret Baier for a two-hour program beginning at 3 p.m. Bill Hemmer and Dana Perino will co-host “America’s Newsroom,” a two-hour program that begins at 9 a.m.
At CNN, Dana Bash and Tapper will co-host “State of the Union,” a weekend politics program that he currently anchors solo. CNN also said that Ms. Phillip will anchor an 8 a.m. show called “Inside Politics Sunday with Abby Phillip.” Kaitlan Collins (outstanding) will be CNN’s chief White House correspondent, replacing Jim Acosta, who will become the network’s chief domestic correspondent and a weekend anchor.
--Meanwhile, Cumulus Media, a talk radio company with a roster of popular right-wing personalities including Dan Bongino, Mark Levin and Ben Shapiro, has ordered its employees at 416 stations nationwide to steer clear of endorsing misinformation about election fraud or using language that promotes violent protest.
A memo from Brian Philips, an executive vice president of Cumulus, issued a stern directive.
“We need to help induce national calm NOW,” it began. “Cumulus and Westwood One will not tolerate any suggestion that the election has not ended,” the memo continued. “The election has resolved, there are no alternate acceptable ‘paths.’ Please inform your staffs that we have ZERO TOLERANCE for any suggestion otherwise. If you transgress this policy, you can expect to separate from the company immediately. There will be no dog-whistle talk about ‘stolen elections,’ ‘civil wars’ or any other language that infers violent public disobedience is warranted, ever.” [Tiffany Hsu / New York Times]
Foreign Affairs
China/Taiwan: Related to the above on the nine companies and executives that have new sanctions levied on them by the U.S., China accused Washington of trying to destabilize the region by sending warships and planes to the South China Sea.
“The United States stands with Southeast Asian claimant states seeking to defend their sovereign rights and interests, consistent with international law,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in announcing the sanctions.
The sanctions were directed against those “responsible for, or complicit in, either the large-scale reclamation, construction, or militarization of disputed outposts in the South China Sea, or use of coercion against Southeast Asian claimants to inhibit their access to offshore resources.”
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said CNOOC acted as “a bully for the People’s Liberation Army to intimidate China’s neighbors” and the Chinese military “continues to benefit from government civil-military fusion policies for malign purposes.”
Re: Taiwan, a cancellation of all travel by the U.S. State Department this week included a planned visit to Taiwan by U.S. Ambassador to the UN Kelly Craft. Craft had been due to visit Taiwan from Wednesday to Friday, prompting China to warn that Washington was playing with fire.
Secretary of State Pompeo said on Tuesday that all travel this week had been cancelled, including his own trip to Europe, as part of the transition to the incoming Biden administration. The fact is, no one in Europe wanted to see Pompeo!
Craft’s Taiwan trip appeared to be another part of an effort by Pompeo and Donald Trump to lock in a tough approach to China before Joe Biden takes office.
A Chinese representative to the UN said, “It’s time that the crazy, irrational behaviors of certain people come to a stop” in urging Washington to stop “creating obstacles” for the relationship between China and the United States.
But over the weekend, Secretary Pompeo announced he is lifting restrictions on meetings between U.S. and Taiwanese officials, which further enraged Beijing.
Walter Russell Mead / Wall Street Journal
“Ever since Henry Kissinger’s groundbreaking diplomacy in the early 1970s, Washington has embraced a one-China policy. The U.S. rejects the use of force to resolve the Taiwan issue, but under the policy of ‘strategic ambiguity,’ America declines to say what it would do if Beijing attempted forceful reunification.
“President-elect Biden, unfortunately, inherits a situation in which the basis of the old compromise is coming apart. For its part, China has launched one of the greatest military buildups in the history of the world across the straits from Taiwan. Coupled with the artificial islands and military buildup in the South China Sea, it’s clear Beijing has been systematically seeking to create the conditions for a successful invasion of Taiwan.
“China is closer to this goal than many Americans realize. Twenty years ago, Beijing had no prospect of conquering the island. The Chinese Communist Party could bluster about reunification all it wanted, but the Taiwanese, the Japanese and the mainlanders themselves understood that this was empty talk.
“It gets less empty every day. Increasingly the military balance has shifted from a clear U.S. advantage into a gray zone as China’s buildup accelerates. This is anything but a secret; the gradual decline of America’s ability to forestall an invasion of Taiwan is well understood by governments around the Pacific….
“It doesn’t take a war to change the politics of Asia. Already, signs that the strategic balance is drifting in Beijing’s favor undermine confidence in America and strengthen the arguments of Chinese appeasers from Tokyo to New Delhi.
“Restoring a stable power equation is possible but cannot be achieved overnight. It will require significant military spending and perhaps some difficult trade-offs elsewhere, but it also necessitates a renewal of U.S. diplomacy in the region. By coordinating military planning and burden sharing more closely with countries like Japan, India, Vietnam and Australia, the military balance can be stabilized and secured in less time and with less cost. And solidifying relationships with neighboring countries like the Philippines and Pacific Island nations to allow the allies to disperse their forces to more bases will make those forces harder for China to target….
“Selling high-profile arms to Taiwan, stepping up official contacts with the island, or even – as increasingly senior figures in the American foreign-policy establishment suggest – replacing ‘strategic ambiguity’ with an open U.S. guarantee of Taiwan’s security won’t help Taiwan all that much as long as the mainland is becoming more capable of invasion. But such moves do antagonize Beijing and deepen its commitment to the military buildup.
“It was American military strength that made the Kissinger compromise over Taiwan possible in the first place. That compromise remains, as it has been for the past 50 years, the cornerstone both of Taiwan’s security and of pragmatic and peaceful U.S.-China relations. While China’s rise makes that military edge harder to sustain in some ways, the accompanying ascent of regional allies makes it easier.
“Stabilizing U.S.-China relations and protecting the Pacific status quo require the same things from Mr. Biden’s administration: A hard-nosed understanding of the military facts of life, a sophisticated diplomacy that embraces the game-changing potential of both old and emerging American alliances, and a clearsighted approach to the economic and technological foundations of national power.”
Regarding the Trump administration’s removing decades-old restrictions on interactions with Taiwan, the Communist Party-backed Global Times warned that Secretary of State Pompeo’s moves were pushing the countries toward conflict. Hu Xijin, the newspaper’s editor-in-chief, said on Weibo China had a “previous window of opportunity for mainland China to teach a heavy lesson to the ‘Taiwan independence’ forces” and re-establish “strategic leverage” in the Taiwan Strait.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told a daily briefing in Beijing on Monday: “We will allow no attempt to obstruct China’s reunification process. We will allow no attempts to interfere in China’s internal affairs under the pretext of the Taiwan question.”
North Korea: The regime unveiled a new type of submarine-launched ballistic missile, described by state media as “the world’s most powerful weapon.”
Several of the missiles were displayed at a parade overseen by Kim Jong Un, reported state media.
The show of military strength comes days before the inauguration of Joe Biden and follows a rare political meeting (party congress) where Kim decried the U.S. as his country’s “biggest enemy.”
Analysts noted the missiles were previously unseen weapons.
Earlier, Kim gave himself the title of general secretary of the ruling Workers’ Party, taking over the title from his late father. Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated Kim. North Korean state media said Xi expressed his will to safeguard regional peace and stability, development and prosperity and provide the two countries and the two peoples with greater happiness by strengthening relations.
I love when everyone is happy, as is the case in America today.
Lastly, the name of Kim Jong Un’s sister was missing from a new list of the Workers’ Party’s politburo, state media reported on Monday, raising questions about her status after several years of increasing influence.
Kim Yo Jong remains a member of the Central Committee but not the politburo. In 2017, she became only the second woman in patriarchal North Korea to join the exclusive club after her aunt. Just this summer, South Korean intelligence reported Kim Yo Jong was her brother’s “de facto second-in-command.”
Some experts believe it’s not important she’s not part of the politburo…that she could easily hold other important posts not publicized.
But in Kim Jong Un being granted the title of general secretary, he is also leaving no doubt he alone is in charge.
Iran: The country took an important step in atomic-weapons production, starting work on an assembly line to manufacture a key material used at the core of nuclear warheads, the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency said in a report Wednesday, raising the stakes in Tehran’s standoff with Washington ahead of President-elect Biden’s inauguration.
The Wall Street Journal viewed the IAEA’s confidential report and Iran said it told the watchdog it has started manufacturing equipment it will use to produce uranium metal at a site in Isfahan in coming months.
Uranium metal can be used to construct the core of a nuclear weapon. Iran hasn’t made the metal previously and it gave the IAEA no timeline for when it would do so. But the development moves Iran closer to crossing the line between nuclear operations with a potential civilian use, i.e., enriching nuclear fuel for power-generating reactors, and nuclear-weapons work.
Making uranium metal is prohibited under the 2015 international nuclear accord.
Israel/Syria/Iran: Israel launched major airstrikes early Wednesday in eastern Syria, near the border with Iraq, that targeted Syrian government positions, weapons depots and pro-Iranian militias, according to Syrian state media.
Around 40 members of forces allied with Syrian President Bashar Assad were killed in the strikes.
Israel’s military declined to comment on the attack, instead saying through a spokesman, “Israel is determined to prevent Iranian military entrenchment in Syria.” Israel struck 50 targets in Syria in 2020, according to data released by Israel’s military last month.
Russia: Sunday is a big day. Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny said this week he would fly back to Russia on Jan. 17 from Germany where he has been recovering after being poisoned, shrugging off potential legal risks that could see him jailed.
“It was never a question of whether to return or not. Simply because I never left. I ended up in Germany after arriving in an intensive care box for one reason: they tried to kill me,” Navalny wrote on Instagram.
“(President Vladimir Putin’s) servants are acting as usual by fabricating new criminal cases against me. But I’m not interested in what they’re going to do to me. Russia is my country, Moscow is my city and I miss it,” he wrote.
His announcement came a day after court documents showed Russian authorities had asked a court to jail him for allegedly breaking the terms of a suspended sentence for what he says was a politically-motivated conviction.
Russia’s Federal Prison Service last month ordered Navalny to immediately fly back, and to report at a Moscow office or be jailed if he failed to return in time.
Russia has denied it tried to harm Navalny.
Boy, this is one gutty guy. We wish him luck.
Random Musings
--A new Quinnipiac University national poll of registered voters, taken from Jan. 7 to Jan. 10, shows President Trump’s approval number cratering to 33%, 60% disapproval, down from a 44-51 split in December. The 33% ties his all-time low, which he received in August 2017.
94% of Democrats disapprove of Trump’s job performance and 4% approve. 71% of Republicans approve, while 20% disapprove. Independent voters, by a margin of 65% to 28%, disapprove of his job performance.
The survey was taken post the storming of the U.S. Capitol, with 56% saying they hold Trump responsible, while 42% say they do not.
By a 52-45 margin, those polled say Trump should be removed from office. Voters also say 53-43 percent that he should resign as president.
45% say Trump is mentally stable, 48% say he is not mentally stable.
Voters say by a 60-34 margin that President Trump is undermining, not protecting, democracy.
58% say they believe there was no widespread voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election, while 37% believe there was widespread fraud. On this issue the spread is roughly the same as December.
Republicans say 73-21 percent that they believe there was widespread voter fraud. Democrats say 93-5 and independents by 60-36 that they do not believe there was widespread fraud.
Only 31 percent say they think Joe Biden will be able to unite the country and 56 percent say they expect partisan divisions to remain the same as they are today. Fourteen percent are unsure.
--President-elect Joe Biden made another quality pick, this one for CIA, in tapping career diplomat William Burns to lead the agency. Burns, who speaks Arabic and Russian, was ambassador to Moscow from 2005 to 2008 and led secret talks that paved the way to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
Burns has been president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace for nearly five years, and he will be advising Biden as well on where he can cooperate with China and where to confront them.
Burns has been confirmed by the Senate for five prior jobs over 33 years. He headed up the State Department’s Middle East division during the 2003 invasion of Iraq without much personal controversy.
Sir John Sawers, former head of Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service, MI6, praised the pick.
“Bill will bring fresh leadership to a CIA that has been marginalized during the Trump years.”
Senate Intelligence committee chair Mark Warner also praised the selection.
--Weeks before a mob of President Trump’s supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol, right-wing activist Ali Alexander told his followers he was planning something big for Jan. 6.
Alexander, who organized the ‘Stop the Steal’ movement, said he hatched the plan – coinciding with Congress’ vote to certify the electoral college votes – alongside three GOP lawmakers: Reps. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Paul Gosar (Ariz.) and Mo Brooks (Ala.).
“We four schemed up of putting maximum pressure on Congress while they were voting,” Alexander said in a since-deleted video on Periscope highlighted by the Project on Government Oversight, an investigative nonprofit. The plan, he said, was to “change the hearts and the minds of Republicans who were in that body, hearing our loud voice from outside.”
--Editorial / Houston Chronicle
“In Texas, we have our share of politicians who peddle wild conspiracy theories and reckless rhetoric aiming to inflame.
“Think U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert’s ‘terror baby’ diatribes or his nonsensical vow not to wear a face mask until after he got Covid, which he promptly did.
“This editorial board tries to hold such shameful specimens to account.
“But we reserve special condemnation for the perpetrators among them who are of sound mind and considerable intellect – those who should damn well know better.
“None more than U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz.
“A brilliant and frequent advocate before the U.S. Supreme Court and a former Texas solicitor general, Cruz knew exactly what he was doing, what he was risking and who he was inciting as he stood on the Senate floor Wednesday and passionately fed the farce of election fraud even as a seething crowd of believers was being whipped up by President Trump a short distance away.
“Cruz, it should also be noted, knew exactly whose presidency he was defending. That of a man he called in 2016 a ‘narcissist,’ a ‘pathological liar’ and ‘utterly amoral.’
“Cruz told senators that since nearly 40 percent of Americans believed the November election ‘was rigged’ that the only remedy was to form an emergency task force to review the results – and if warranted, allow states to overturn Joe Biden’s victory and put their electoral votes in Trump’s column.
“Cruz deemed people’s distrust in the election ‘a profound threat to the country and to the legitimacy of any administrations that will come in the future.’
“What he didn’t acknowledge was how that distrust, which he overstated anyway, was fueled by Trump’s torrent of fantastical claims of voter fraud that were shown again and again not to exist.
“Cruz had helped spin that web of deception and now he was feigning concern that millions of Americans had gotten caught up in it.
“Even as he peddled his phony concern for the integrity of our elections, he argued that senators who voted to certify Biden’s victory would be telling tens of millions of Americans to ‘jump in a lake’ and that their concerns don’t matter.
“Actually, senators who voted to certify the facts delivered the truth – something Americans haven’t been getting from a political climber whose own insatiable hunger for power led him to ride Trump’s bus to Crazy Town through 59 losing court challenges, past state counts and recounts and audits, and finally taking the wheel to drive it to the point of no return: trying to bully the U.S. Congress into rejecting tens of millions of lawfully cast votes in an election that even Trump’s Department of Homeland Security called the most secure in American history.
“The consequences of Cruz’s cynical gamble soon became clear and so did his true motivations. In the moments when enraged hordes of Trump supporters began storming the Capitol to stop a steal that never happened, desecrating the building, causing the evacuation of Congress and injuring dozens of police officers, including one who died, a fundraising message went out to Cruz supporters:
“ ‘Ted Cruz here,’ it read. ‘I’m leading the fight to reject electors from key states unless there is an emergency audit of the election results. Will you stand with me?’
“Cruz claims the message was automated. Even if that’s true, it’s revolting.
‘This is a man who lied, unflinchingly, on national television, claiming on Hannity’s show days after the election that Philadelphia votes were being counted under a ‘shroud of darkness’ in an attempted Democratic coup. As he spoke, the process was being livestreamed on YouTube.
“For two months, Cruz joined Trump in beating the drum of election fraud until Trump loyalists were deaf to anyone – Republican, Democrat or nonpartisan journalist, not to mention state and federal courts – telling them otherwise.
“And yet, Cruz insists he bears no responsibility for the deadly terror attack….
“We’re done with the drama. Done with the opportunism. Done with the cynical scheming that has now cost American lives.
“Resign, Mr. Cruz, and deliver Texas from the shame of calling you our senator.”
--How awful is today’s Republican Party? Cindy McCain, the widow of Sen. John McCain, was censured Saturday by the Maricopa County Republican Party in Arizona after she supported President-elect Joe Biden in the fall.
The resolution, which referred to her as a “troubled individual” who supported “leftist causes,” was passed by a committee vote, according to the Arizona Republic newspaper.
“I am a proud lifelong Republican and will continue to support candidates who put country over party and stand for the rule of law,” Cindy McCain, 66, tweeted in response to the reprimand.
Meghan McCain responded in classic Meghan fashion, tweeting:
“Oh how will she ever survive such a thing?!? And this is THE REAL problem facing the Arizona GOP, my mom! A few days after a domestic terror attack led by maniac Trump supporters.”
--Attorney Lin Wood, a recent member of President Trump’s legal team, should be in prison tonight. Among Wood’s recent statements was his call for Vice President Mike Pence to be executed by “firing squads.”
Wood then told CNN, “I made NO threat. I do not believe in violence. I do believe in the rule of law.”
“I have reliable evidence that Pence has engaged in acts of treason. My comments were rhetorical hyperbole. Any journalist should understand that concept. If my information is accurate, law enforcement will address what punishment, if any, should be administered to Pence as they do with all criminals,” Wood said.
Wood had posted on Parler on Thursday after the riot at the Capitol, “They let them in. Get the firing squads ready. Pence goes FIRST.” Parler removed the post.
The day after the presidential election, Wood drew the battle lines. “Country is on brink of civil war. Not North vs. South but Truth vs. Lies,” he posted on Parler. “Freedom Loving Americans are on side of truth. Socialists/Communists/Globalists are on side of lies.”
On Nov. 19 at a “Stop the Steal” rally in Alpharetta, Ga., Wood told the crowd: “We’re going to slay Goliath, the communists, the liberals, the phonies. Joe Biden will never set foot in the Oval Office of this country. It will not happen on our watch.”
As we saw at the Capitol two months later, many of Wood’s so-called ‘freedom loving Americans’ were nothing more than Fascists.
--My favorite New Jersey political leader, Republican Assembly leader Jon Bramnick, sent out a note the other day with some telling election results that quantify what I’ve always told you about the congressional districts in my area.
My district, 7, was lost by Republican Tom Kean by only 5,000 votes. Trump lost the same district by 43,000.
In Monmouth County, Republican Clerk Christine Hanlon won by 70,000 votes. Trump won by only 10,000.
In Morris County (next door), Republican Freeholder Selen won the county by 13,000 votes. Trump lost it by 12,000.
As Bramnick concluded his memo: “No evidence of fraud. But plenty of evidence on how we proceed forward as Republicans in New Jersey.”
--Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang officially jumped into the New York City mayoral race, joining a crowded, and rather unique, field of candidates.
Yang, in his launch video, outlines proposals for the city to take back control of its subway, which is currently operated by the state-run Metropolitan Transportation Authority. And he calls for the creation of a citywide universal basic income, which was a cornerstone of his presidential campaign.
The primary is being held in June, rather than the traditional September, so there is little time to gain traction but he obviously has name recognition.
Among the other candidates running are Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams, and former Citibank Vice Chairman Ray McGuire, who business leaders will no doubt endorse.
--The death rate from cancer in the U.S. dropped 2.4% from 2017 to 2018, the biggest single-year decline on record and a sign of the impact of new treatments on lung cancer especially, the American Cancer Society said.
It was the second year in a row with a record-setting drop, and the progress continues gains that have been made for more than a quarter-century, the cancer society said in a report published Tuesday. The researchers analyzed cancer mortality data from 1930 to 2018, before the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Overall, the cancer mortality rate has fallen 31% since its peak in 1991, according to the report, which was published online in the journal CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians.
Cancer death rates continue to drop, primarily because of reductions in smoking and better detection and treatment.
But cancer remains the second leading cause of deaths in the U.S., after heart disease. In 2018, it was responsible for more than 599,000 deaths, the report said. Lung cancer accounts for almost one-quarter of the country’s cancer deaths.
--Pope Francis urged Americans on Sunday to shun violence, seek reconciliation and protect democratic values, following the mob attack on the U.S. Capitol building by supporters of President Trump.
“I repeat that violence is self-destructive, always. Nothing is gained by violence and so much is lost,” the pope said in his Sunday address.
“I appeal to the authorities of the country and to the entire population to maintain a lofty sense of responsibility in order to calm things down, promote national reconciliation and protect democratic values that are rooted in American society,” Francis said.
Francis added that he prayed all Americans would “keep alive a culture of encounter, a culture of caring, as the master way to build together the common good.”
Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr:
“The truth matters in our country and anywhere in any circumstance because of the repercussions if we allow lies to spread and if we enable people in power to lie,” Kerr said. “All of a sudden you have millions of people who are doubting an election that was certified in every state. We had seven to eight more million people vote for Biden than for Trump. Every state has certified those results. Every court appeal has been turned down. A legitimate election is suddenly questioned by millions of people, including many of the people who are leading our government because we’ve decided to over the last few years allow lies to be told. This is who we are. You reap what you sow.”
--This one is crazy…police in South Korea have been scouring the country for leads in the disappearance of $13 million in cash from a casino on a popular holiday island, Jeju Shinhwa World.
At the Landing Casino, where gamblers typically play baccarat and other high-stakes card games, the cash went missing and police have been asked to look for a female employee from Malaysia who had been in charge of the cash but hadn’t returned to work after leaving for a vacation at the end of December.
Police say if all the money was in 50,000-won bills, the haul would have weighed nearly 620 pounds, making it difficult to pass undetected through airports or seaports.
--While the winter has been temperate thus far in the United States, Europe and Asia have been freezing, and Spain had a crazy, deadly snowstorm this week that wreaked havoc on the country. Madrid’s mayor said Thursday that damage caused by the storm would cost up to $2 billion to fix. The storm brought the heaviest snowfall Madrid has seen in almost 50 years, dropping more than a foot and a half of snow on the 6.6 million people who live in the city and the surrounding region.
Yes, the polar vortex plunged south. No telling if the U.S. will get its turn in February or early March.
Separately, in a new climate study from NASA, 2020 was ranked in a dead heat with 2016 as the warmest year since official record-keeping began in 1880, despite a cooling La Nina Pacific Ocean current, which tamped down global temperatures slightly in December.
Glen Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, said, “these long-term trends are very, very clear. This is another piece of evidence that tells us the planet is warming decade by decade by decade.
At times last year, the Arctic averaged 12 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.
The federal research follows independent assessments of 2020 that I have cited the last few weeks, including the Copernicus Climate Change Service, which also said 2020 was on par with the warmest ever recorded. Japan’s Meteorological Agency said global temperatures were the highest in their records last year.
--The late Alex Trebek opened his last week of shows (originally taped to be shown Christmas week), Monday, Jan. 4, with an entreaty for kindness to his audience.
“You’ll recall that about a month ago I asked all of you to take a moment to give thanks for all the blessings you enjoy in your lives. Now, today, a different kind of message: this is the season of giving. I know you want to be generous with your family, your friends, your loved ones, but today I’d like you to go one step further. I’d like you to open up your hands and open your heart to those who are still suffering because of Covid-19. People who are suffering through no fault of their own. We’re trying to build a gentler, kinder society and if we all pitch in just a little bit we’re going to get there.”
---
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen…
We pray for our first responders and healthcare workers.
God bless America.
---
Gold $1827
Oil $52.04
Returns for the week 1/11-1/15
Dow Jones -0.9% [30814]
S&P 500 -1.5% [3768]
S&P MidCap +0.3%
Russell 2000 +1.5%
Nasdaq -1.5% [12998]
Returns for the period 1/1/21-1/15/21
Dow Jones +0.7%
S&P 500 +0.3%
S&P MidCap +5.1%
Russell 2000 +7.5%
Nasdaq +0.9%
Bulls 63.7
Bears 16.7
Hang in there.
Mask up…wash your hands.
Brian Trumbore