Week in Review

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Week in Review

08/28/2021

For the week 8/23-8/27

[Posted 9:00 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,167…The Afghan Debacle, Part II…

Thursday was a dark, sickening day for America, as we lost 13 U.S. service members in a suicide bomb attack outside the Kabul airport…170 Afghans also dying in the heinous act carried out by a lone member of ISIS-K.  Some may have died in gunfire that erupted after.

Of the 13 U.S. victims, we know the names of eight thus far as I go to post….

Maxton Soviak, Kareem Nikoui, David Lee Espinoza, Rylee McCollum, Jared Schmitz, Hunter Lopez, Daegan Page and Ryan Knauss.

They are all amazing heroes, who were carrying out their mission to save lives and get as many Americans and their Afghan allies out as possible in the airlift precipitated by President Joe Biden’s ill-conceived withdrawal from Afghanistan.

We pray for all the victims and their families.

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In a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll, 3 of 4 predict the Taliban-led country will once again become a haven for terrorists targeting the United States.

Biden’s decision to pull the troops out was backed by most Americans, 53%-38%.  But almost two-thirds, 62%, disapproved of the way his administration has handled that withdrawal, the poll taken Thursday through Monday, prior to the attack.

While most of those surveyed say Biden mishandled the exit in Afghanistan, few blame him for what went wrong in the war itself.  Among those who say the war wasn’t worth it – a view held by 60%-28% - just 7% identify Biden as the president who is most responsible for that.  Fifteen percent cite Barack Obama, who vowed to end U.S. participation in the war and didn’t.

Nearly two-thirds, 62%, put the responsibility on George W. Bush, the president who ordered the invasion in 2001.

But now 73% of Americans believe Afghanistan will once again become a base for terrorists who want to attack the United States.

On one issue, nearly everyone agreed, and across party lines: By 84%-10%, those surveyed said the Afghans who had worked as translators for the U.S. military – and as a result may now be targeted for retribution – should be eligible for special refugee visas.  Their admission to the United States with their immediate family members was supported by 79% of Republicans and 90% of Democrats.

In an NBC News poll, just 25% approve of Biden’s handling of Afghanistan, while 60% disapprove.

Sixty-one percent believe the war was not worth it, compared with 29 percent who say it was – numbers that are virtually identical to when this question was last asked, in 2014.

I get it…Americans have long grown tired of Afghanistan.  I told you last week that this was because our leaders never did a good job of explaining to the nation not only why we’ve been there, but all the good we were doing, including preventing another 9/11 the past 20 years.  That’s no small feat.

What does America stand for, I’ve pleaded?  I know…but why has everyone else, including President Biden, suddenly forgotten, even as he has touted such a message as recently as just the other week?

I thought Washington Post editorial page editor Fred Hiatt summed it up perfectly the other day.

“ ‘Look, let’s put this thing in perspective here,’ (Biden) said last week.  ‘What interests do we have in Afghanistan at this point with al-Qaeda gone?’

“Some answers: The 39 million people who may now be subjected to brutal, fundamentalist rule.  The little girls barred from school and imprisoned in forced marriages.  The people of the wrong faith prevented from worshiping, or killed for it.  Are they not an American interest?

“Biden may believe this cold-bloodedness serves his political interests.  Republicans are exploiting his troubles, unabashed by hypocrisy after so many of them stayed silent when President Donald Trump initiated the withdrawal. Polls show that Americans agree with Biden’s fundamental argument that withdrawal was long overdue.

“But if preventing a terrorist attack on the United States is ‘our only vital national interest in Afghanistan,’ as Biden said, then why should people in Taiwan or Cuba or Poland think Biden cares any more about their freedom?

“A few months ago, addressing a joint session of Congress, Biden said that he had told Chinese President Xi Jinping ‘what I’ve said to many world leaders – that America won’t back away from our commitment to human rights and fundamental freedoms.’

“Indeed, he continued, ‘No responsible American president can remain silent when basic human rights are violated….We cannot walk away from that principle.’

“Biden might argue there is no contradiction.  He will still speak up for the rights of Afghan women, he has said, but the United States can’t be defending them – or the rights of women abused in many other parts of the world – with U.S. troops.

“But that’s not the message the world hears when Biden asks what interest we have in Afghanistan.

“The United States did not invade Afghanistan to promote democracy any more than it did so in Iraq.  But once it had dislodged the Taliban, it decided – with broad partisan support, including from Biden – that the smartest, safest and most just strategy was to help keep the Taliban away while Afghan girls went to school and Afghans of all ages gradually developed the habits of self-rule.

“I believe Trump and Biden were wrong to give up on that project.  In recent years, the United States had achieved the low-risk, small-footprint, counterterrorism-and-training posture that Biden had advocated as vice president. The American people would have accepted such a mission indefinitely if Biden had explained its importance, and even long-term stalemate would have been preferable to what we will see now….

“The president has summoned leaders and activists to a virtual democracy summit in December.  If he insists now that preventing terrorism is our only national interest in Afghanistan, what can he possibly say then that will not sound hollow?”

Again, what does America stand for?  The fact that a vast majority of Americans have seemingly forgotten is infuriating.

I know that all of about 100 people in the country understand why I say Barack Obama’s failure to work with Turkish President Erdogan on a no-fly zone for Syria in 2012, because Obama was too wrapped up in his reelection fight, is the single-greatest foreign policy mistake of the century.

If you forgot, there were 25,000 dead in the Syrian civil war at that time. The toll is now well over 300,000…perhaps far higher than this commonly reported figure.

Millions of refugees then flooded Europe.  ISIS grew up.  Nine million more were displaced in Syria.  I could go on.  Inaction changed the world for the worse, forever.

And what’s even more infuriating is that it was a no-brainer.

What we had in Afghanistan was also a no-brainer. 

But we’re brain dead.  God help us.

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Speaking from the East Room of the White House late Thursday, President Biden said “It’s been a tough day.”  He stressed that it was always clear the mission would be dangerous, and he acknowledged that there might be further attacks.  But the Aug. 31 deadline would stand, even while many Republicans and Democrats are urging him to extend the deadline.

Under questioning from reporters, Biden reiterated his rationale for pulling U.S. troops out of Afghanistan after 20 years.

“I have never been of the view that we should be sacrificing American lives to try to establish a democratic government in Afghanistan, a country that has never once in its entire history been a united country and is made up…of different tribes who have never, ever, ever gotten along with one another,” Biden said.

“Ladies and gentlemen, it was time to end a 20-year war,” he added.

House Foreign Affairs Committee ranking member Michael McCaul (R-TX) called President Biden’s decision to pull all U.S. troops out of Afghanistan by the end of this month the “worst presidential foreign policy decision in my lifetime and an unconditional surrender to the Taliban.”

McCaul added that viewing Aug. 31 as a “red line” date beyond which no U.S. troops could remain in the country was “an outright disgrace.”

The most vocal criticism on the Democratic side came from Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who wondered whether Taliban guards had failed by allowing the ISIS bombers to get so close to the airport.  “One thing is clear: We can’t trust the Taliban with Americans’ security,” Menendez said.

In comments to Fox News’ Sean Hannity Thursday evening, former President Trump sought to defend the cease-fire deal his administration forged with the Taliban in February of 2020.  He argued that it did not commit the U.S. to a firm withdrawal date, contrary to Biden’s claims.

“We had plenty of time. They [the Taliban] weren’t gonna move.  We had them under total control,” he said.  “There was no reason to expedite.  I could have taken two years, three years to get [U.S. forces] out.  We were gonna get ‘em out fast, but…we were in no rush.  We controlled everything, and they were afraid to move.”

This was more than a bit disingenuous.

Former Trump administration national security adviser H.R. McMaster called on President Biden to “reverse course” in the aftermath of the bombing in Kabul.

“What we saw today is just the beginning,” McMaster said in an interview with Yahoo News.  “We are going to see horrible image after horrible image. …We’re going to confront the steady drumbeat of horrors inflicted on the Afghan people. What are we going to do about it?  Are we going to give a damn?  Or is this going to be like Rwanda?”  [Referring to the 1994 genocide, when ethnic extremists slaughtered 800,000 people.]

McMaster said Biden should scrap the troop withdrawal, extend the perimeter around the airport, create other safe areas in Afghanistan where civilians can be protected from the Taliban and even “engage” with anti-Taliban resistance groups that have begun fighting in the northern regions of the country.

And he called for a renewed and more robust war on terrorism in the region.

“We have to redouble counterterrorism efforts broadly across the region, with Central Asian states,” he said.

McMaster’s harshest criticism, however, was for his former boss, President Trump, and then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who conducted their negotiations with the Taliban.  The president and secretary in effect decided, McMaster said, “Hey, we’re going to sit down with the Taliban and essentially negotiate our withdrawal.  Afghan government, stay on the sidelines.  What did that do for the legitimacy of the Afghan government? …Then what did we do? We forced them to release 5,000 prisoners – for noting.”

Prior to the attack, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair said last weekend that the Taliban “will give protection and succor to al-Qaeda – you’ve got ISIS trying to operate in the country at the same time.”

“You look ‘round the world and the only people really cheering the U.S. withdrawal are the people hostile to Western interests,” he added. 

Blair added the decision to withdraw was made “in obedience to an imbecilic political slogan about ending ‘the forever wars.’”

So then the G7 held a virtual meeting on Tuesday and European leaders failed to persuade President Biden to keep troops at Kabul airport beyond his August 31 deadline.  The same day, the Taliban declared that Afghans would no longer be allowed to reach the airport on Tuesday, saying that this was necessary to prevent a repeat of fatal crushes but also accusing the U.S. of removing skilled people whose expertise was needed in the country, the Taliban desperately trying to avoid a ‘brain drain’.

Opinion…prior to the attack….

Editorial / USA TODAY…Wed. p.m.

“There are moments in American history when the hopes of a nation turn on the next critical move a president makes.

“Dwight Eisenhower’s decision in 1957 to federalize the Arkansas National Guard so Black teenagers, the Little Rock Nine, could survive a trip to school was one such instance.  John F. Kennedy’s deft handling of the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, which prevented a nuclear war, was another.  As was George W. Bush’s success in rallying the nation from atop the rubble of 9/11.

“It’s now Joe Biden’s turn.

“The lives of an estimated 1,500 American citizens are at stake in Afghanistan, according to what Secretary of State Antony Blinken reported Wednesday….

“Mr. President, you must bring all of our fellow Americans home safely.  And you must not abandon those thousands of Afghans who risked their lives to aid our nation and who now face capture and even death at the hands of the Taliban.

“It’s America’s moral duty as a nation – and yours as commander in chief – to complete this rescue mission successfully.  Mr. President, you must do all that you can to get them all out now….

“To Biden’s credit, since the collapse of the Afghan government, the president has orchestrated one of the largest airlifts of refugees in American history.  Some 4,500 U.S. citizens and their families are among 82,300 airlifted out since Aug. 14.

“But that success illustrates how much of this frenzied exit could have been accomplished sooner, under safer conditions, if undertaken in the weeks after Biden’s decision in April to pull U.S. forces out of Afghanistan….

“And as the time for the last flight out draws near, travel to the airport becomes even more perilous as Taliban soldiers block roads and fears of suicide bombers emerge.

“Mr. President, you will bear responsibility for their fate.  Like presidents before you, this is your moment to lead with conviction and courage.  History will be your judge.”

Marc A. Thiessen / Washington Post…Tues. p.m.

“Remember ‘Baghdad Bob,’ the Iraqi information minister who, as U.S. forces entered the capital, insisted that there were no Americans in Baghdad?  That’s what President Biden is beginning to sound like with his delusional insistence that no Americans were having trouble getting to the Kabul airport, no allies were calling into question the United States’ credibility, and that the United States had no interest in Afghanistan because al-Qaeda was ‘gone.’

“Really?  If that last claim were true, then how did the Afghan military manage to kill al-Qaeda’s second-in-command, Abu Muhsin al-Masri, in Afghanistan’s Ghazni province last October?  Al-Masri was on the FBI’s most wanted list for conspiracy to kill Americans.  If al-Qaeda poses no threat to the United States in Afghanistan, as Biden claims, what was a senior al-Qaeda leader focused on external operations doing there?  And why is Sirajuddin Haqqani, an al-Qaeda-linked U.S.-designated terrorist with a $5 million reward for information leading to his capture, serving as the Taliban’s second-in-command?  His network was recently placed in charge of security in Kabul.  The fact al-Qaeda is not only present in Afghanistan, but deeply embedded within the Taliban.  According to the New Yorker’s Robin Wright, there are actually more al-Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan now than there were before 9/11, and al-Qaeda ‘was pivotal in the Taliban’s sweep across Afghanistan.’

“Yet on Fox News Sunday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken dismissed al-Qaeda’s Afghan presence as nothing more than ‘remnants’ posing no serious danger to the homeland.  It’s not the first time he’s minimized a terrorist threat, only to be proved disastrously wrong.  In December 2011, there were only about 700 Islamic State ‘remnants’ in Iraq when Biden presided over the disastrous U.S. withdrawal there – but by 2014, a CIA analysis found that the Islamic State had grown to as many as 31,500 fighters.  Yet Blinken – who was then serving as deputy national security adviser – continued to underestimate the anger these terrorists posed.  In an August 2014 interview, he insisted that the Islamic State’s ‘focus is not on attacking the U.S. homeland or attacking our interests here in the United States or abroad.  It’s focused intently on trying to create a caliphate now in Iraq.’

“Soon after he spoke those words, the Islamic State and those inspired by it launched a wave of attacks on the West – including January 2015 attacks on the Charlie Hebdo magazine offices and  Jewish deli in Paris; November 2015 attacks on a night club, soccer stadium and restaurants in Paris that killed 130 people; March 2016 bombings of the Brussels airport and subway station; and a July 2016 attack in Nice in which an Islamic State terrorist drove a truck into crowds celebrating Bastille Day, killing 84 people.  According to CNN, by July 2016, the Islamic State had carried out 143 attacks in 29 countries that killed more than 2,000 people.  It was only after the group began to attack the West that the Obama administration finally sent U.S. forces back to Iraq to deal with the debacle it created.

“Now, Biden and Blinken are underestimating the terrorist threat once again.  But this time, the disaster they created in Afghanistan will be far more difficult to clean up.  In Iraq, we left behind a friendly government and bases to which U.S. forces could return to from which to take on the terrorists.  In Afghanistan, the Taliban is in full control, and we have no bases to which we can return when the terrorist danger inevitably reemerges.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal…Tues. p.m.

“The Afghan withdrawal is one of the sorriest American failures in decades.  Its consequences will play out for years, if not decades, as friends and foes recalibrate their views of U.S. political will in general, and Mr. Biden’s in particular.  The President may want Americans to forget the last two weeks, but the world will remember.  The Taliban and al-Qaeda will use it as a recruiting ad for young jihadists.  China, Russia and Iran are already considering how they can exploit a weak America.

“Mr. Biden’s bloody-minded refusal to adapt to the collapse of the Afghan government and military is another reminder that electing a U.S. President is a fateful choice.  Character matters, but character has many parts.  One is judgment, and another is the courage to admit a mistake and regroup.  Mr. Biden is failing on both counts.  With three-and-a-half years to go in his Presidency, the world is going to become much more dangerous.”

And Opinion…after the attack, Thursday….

Editorial / New York Post

“It was the darkest day in U.S. military history in over a decade: at least 12 Marines and one Navy medic slain alongside dozens of civilians in a terrible twin terror attack outside Kabul airport. [Ed. later revised to one suicide bomber, one attack.]

“The nation must mourn these heroes even as it prays for the safety of the remaining 5,000 U.S. forces and for the unknown thousands of U.S. citizens, green-card holders and Afghan allies still desperately trying to get out of Afghanistan.

“We welcome President Joe Biden’s vow to the ISIS-K murderers who took credit for the attack: ‘We will not forgive, we will not forget, we will hunt you down and make you pay…at a moment of our choosing.”

“But dark hours and days still lie ahead, with more sick opportunist attacks likely and far more innocent lives still hanging in the balance.  The nation should unite in resolve to get everyone we can out safely – though it’s now plain that some citizens will be left behind ahead on Aug. 31.  We can only hope they can be evacuated by other means in coming weeks.

“Hard questions remain, about Thursday and the path to it.  Pressed on the question, the president said, ‘I bear responsibility for fundamentally all that’s happened to date.’

“Those were words – along with his vow of justice for the terrorists, his recognition of our ‘sacred obligation…to families of those heroes’ and his praise for those who fight on as ‘the best America has to offer’ – we all needed to hear.

“But some of his remarks rankle.

“He still insists that his course was the only alternative to sending tens of thousands of U.S. troops back to Afghanistan, to keep fighting endlessly.  He will still not address the serious concerns around his execution of the withdrawal, instead repeating that any withdrawal would have been ‘messy’ – a word that now rings especially cold and dismissive in light of the tragic scenes in Kabul.

“Biden claims his military advisers, from the Joint Chiefs of Staff down to the commanders in the field, offered no other options: There was ‘complete unanimity.’

“That seems impossible – and if so, damning of the entire chain of command.

“He keeps saying his hands were tied by then-President Donald Trump’s agreement because ‘What America says matters.’  What of America’s promises to hundreds of thousands of Afghan allies that we wouldn’t leave them behind?  More: Biden has broken many other such Trump accords, nor did much of that four-page deal with the Taliban ever come to fruition.

“But, again, those are questions for days and weeks ahead.  For now, the overwhelming priority is to end this carnage.  And on that, the final words of the president’s prepared remarks are spot on: ‘We have so much to do.  It’s within our capacity to do it, we just have to remain steadfast.’

“Indeed: Stay steadfast, we must.”

Josh Rogin / Washington Post

“(It) was clear before the attack that extremist groups in Afghanistan and other places are organized, capable and continue to wish us harm.  That means the important question is not whether we have ended ‘the forever wars.’  The premier consideration in national security decision-making should still be: What’s the best way to keep our country and our people safe?

“Some will say that Thursday’s attack was possible only because our troops were there in the first place. But that is too easy. The Islamist militants have shown before that they will strike us wherever they can.  Unfortunately, leaving Afghanistan will not diminish their willingness to attack us.  All it does is weaken our ability to protect ourselves.

“The attacks also throw into sharp relief the reality that we can’t depend on the Taliban to bring stability and security to Afghanistan or help us keep a lid on other terrorist groups such as the Islamic State.  Now that we’ve withdrawn virtually all of our troops from Afghanistan, our ability to monitor and stage operations against terrorists there is greatly diminished.  Indeed, that’s what President Biden himself believed, until recently.

“In October 2019, after President Donald Trump approved a mission that killed Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, then-candidate Biden told me in an interview he believed national security decisions must not be made based on abstract phrases such as ‘the forever wars.’  He also said that withdrawing troops precipitously was unwise.

“ ‘The death of [Baghdadi] is proof in the wisdom of the strategy, that without committing our troops to endless wars, you can still in fact protect our interests and the interests of friends and allies,’ Biden said.  ‘You need people on the ground.  You need allies on the ground.’

“For Biden, who has decades of foreign policy experience, the true measure of a decision like pulling out troops from a dangerous place was how it affected U.S. national security.  He told me there was a crucial difference between small counterterrorism forces and large troop deployments aimed at nation-building.

“Biden told me he had worked hard to keep some U.S. troops in Iraq in 2011 and later felt vindicated when we had to return in 2014 when the Islamic State took over.  Biden said that, if elected, he intended to continue negotiating with the Taliban in Afghanistan (as Trump did), aiming to secure real commitments if he drew down.

“ ‘But I would not be just unilaterally at this point pulling everybody out and announcing it ahead of time,’ Biden told me.

“Biden appears to have discarded that view.  These days he sounds much more like a strong opponent of ‘forever wars,’ embracing the support of a previously marginalized sector of the D.C. foreign policy establishment.

“Biden got fed up, rightly, with a Washington establishment that perennially asked for more money and more time to achieve an overly ambitious goal in Afghanistan, Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.) told me.  The political case for leaving was sound. The national security case for staying was unpopular.

“ ‘We were going to do something important but not satisfying: maintain a long-term project with a problematic government to maintain a fragile progress and avoid a catastrophe,’ Malinowski said.  ‘But this was never presented in honest terms.’

“But if we cast aside all the abstract language about endless wars, hubris and imperial overreach, Malinowski said, we should be able to do a simple cost-benefit analysis of our current security position.  The troops the United States withdrew from Afghanistan aren’t coming home – they’re just moving to other foreign bases in the region.  They will retain the mission to fight terrorism in Afghanistan, he said, just from farther away and with no local partner.

“Yes, the United States will save billions by not arming the Afghan National Army (problematic partner that it was).  But now we face the costs of dealing with the fallout, which already includes caring for tens of thousands of new refugees.  The United States undermined its credibility with its allies, damaged its ability to earn the trust of future local partners and abandoned millions of innocent people it professed to care about to a cruel fate.  Meanwhile, Taliban-ruled Afghanistan is already becoming a haven for terrorist groups of all stripes.

“ ‘There’s no good way to lose a war,’ Biden’s new progressive foreign policy supporters say.  True, our side lost the Afghan civil war.  But the larger war, the terrorists’ war on us, is not over.  The enemy is determined to go on fighting.  And now we have to fight back from a weaker position.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“The jihadist attack on Kabul airport that everyone feared finally happened on Thursday… The suicide bomber is responsible for the deaths.  President Biden spoke for the country Thursday in his expression of empathy and loss, but he can’t duck responsibility for the failure to provide enough force to execute a safe evacuation….

“Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, head of Central Command that is supervising the evacuation, said Thursday that the U.S. has depended on the Taliban for security screening outside the airport since mid-August.

“ ‘We thought his would happen sooner or later,’ Gen. McKenzie added.  He said the U.S. had no choice other than to interact with Afghans moving through the airport gate to be evacuated, and one of them was probably the suicide bomber who made it past whatever screening the Taliban did.

“What a position for the U.S. to be in: Relying on the victorious enemy that has spent years trying to kill Americans to detect jihadists bent on killing Americans.

“The Taliban may be enemies of ISIS, as they compete for jihadist supremacy, but they may also believe they benefit from the airport attack.  The bomb didn’t kill them.  It killed Americans and Afghans attempting to leave the country, and the result will be that fewer Afghans who were allies of the U.S. and NATO will be able to make it out.

“Americans have a right to be angry over these deaths. The obligation of a President is to provide adequate force to execute a mission and protect the troops carrying it out.  Even after the collapse of the Afghan military, Mr. Biden could have introduced enough force to retake the large Bagram air base, which is further from Kabul and has two runways and a larger security perimeter.

“Mr. Biden said Thursday his military advisers told him that Bagram didn’t provide much advantage over the Kabul airfield with its single runway.  But even if that’s true, he could have provided more force protection for the airport and an evacuation that wasn’t rushed to meet the Taliban’s timetable.

“Mr. Biden has said over the last two weeks that he chose to withdraw from Afghanistan to avoid more casualties.  Yet the 13 American deaths – 12 Marines and a Navy medic – are more American deaths in Afghanistan than in all of 2020 when thousands of U.S. troops were in the country advising Afghan forces.  By one count they are the most U.S. troops killed in a day since 2011.

“The risks also aren’t over, as Gen. McKenzie made clear on Thursday. The active threats include truck bombs, RPGs and rockets against aircraft with evacuees….

“Thursday’s attack all but guarantees that thousands of Afghan allies and some Americans will be left behind when the evacuation ends.  Some European countries are ending flights Friday.  The U.S. had already warned Americans to stay away from the airport on Wednesday amid security threats. An estimated 1,000 or so Americans are still in the country.  Some of them may have to rely on diplomacy with the Taliban to get out once all American troops leave on Aug. 31.  In other words, they will essentially be hostages.

“On Aug. 20, Mr. Biden stood at the White House and declared: ‘We’ve made clear to the Taliban that any attack – any attack – on our forces or disruption of our operations at the airport will be met with a swift and forceful response.’

“Such a threat might work against the Taliban but it was never going to deter ISIS, whose core ideology is to die for Islam.  Mr. Biden is still dependent on the goodwill of the Taliban to complete the U.S. evacuation, so he can’t retaliate against them. He said he’ll find the ISIS plotters and ‘make you pay,’ and he will try.

“But the Kabul airport massacre compounds the humiliation of the botched Afghan withdrawal and will further embolden jihadists.  Mr. Biden is telling Americans that Afghanistan won’t again become a terror haven, but it already is.  The hundreds of jihadists released from prisons with the Taliban victory are already on the attack.  More Americans will become targets – and far beyond the borders of Afghanistan.”

Susan Page / USA TODAY

“In time, Biden and his top national-security aides will face scrutiny about why they so misjudged the strength of Afghan forces, which collapsed in 11 days, not in the months or more the White House had expected. Why the effort to extract Americans and vulnerable Afghans wasn’t more carefully planned.  Why the United States found itself so isolated from allies in Great Britain, Germany and elsewhere about the suddenness of the pullout.

“For Biden, most of the criticism didn’t center on his fundamental decision to withdraw U.S. forces. He was delivering on a promise that both of his predecessors, Barack Obama and Trump, had made and then failed to fulfill before they left the White House….

“It was his administration’s implementation of that policy that has come under withering review.  During the campaign, Biden had emphasized his long experience on foreign policy… He vowed to rebuild foreign alliances and put the U.S. back on a steady course after the tumult of the Trump presidency. 

“In the USA TODAY (Suffolk University) survey, just 26% of those surveyed approved of the job Biden has done handling the withdrawal….

“And that was before the horrific cellphone footage was aired on American television channels that showed bodies floating in a canal, survivors running for cover and frantic children weeping.”

Biden’s Agenda

--House Democrats on Tuesday approved a roughly $3.5 trillion budget that could enable sweeping changes to the nation’s healthcare, education and tax laws, as they overcame their internal divisions to take the next step toward enacting President Biden’s broader economic agenda.

The 220-212 party-line vote came after days of delays as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi scrambled to stave off a revolt from the party’s moderate-leaning lawmakers.

We have a long ways to go before anything is enacted.  What passed was just a blueprint that has to be transformed in coming months into a fuller legislative product, but the procedure did unlock for Democrats the process known as reconciliation – a tactic that allows them to write a tax-and-spending bill that can bypass a Republican filibuster.

The House approved the $3.5 trillion plan Tuesday only after a protracted debate the exposed the fractious and fragile nature of the Democratic caucus.

At the center of the battle were nine moderate lawmakers, led by New Jersey’s Josh Gottheimer.  For weeks the group had threatened to vote against the budget, arguing the bipartisan, $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill that passed the Senate last month should be passed first.  Pelosi was being pressured by the liberal faction of the party to do the big stuff first.

In the end, moderates received a commitment that the House would consider the infrastructure proposal by Sept. 27.

But Republicans lined up unanimously against the budget in the House.  And in the Senate, Democrats Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema have already signaled they won’t support the $3.5 trillion monstrosity.

So lots of fun and games this fall.

--A divided U.S. Supreme Court lifted the Biden administration’s moratorium on evictions, ending protections for millions of people who have fallen behind on their rent during the pandemic.

Saying landlords were suffering “irreparable harm,” the conservative-controlled court ruled late Thursday that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lacked authority to impose the moratorium under the decades-old federal law the agency was invoking. 

“It would be one thing if Congress had specifically authorized the action that the CDC has taken.  But that has not happened,” the court said in an unsigned opinion.  “It strains credulity to believe that this statute grants the CDC the sweeping authority that it asserts.”

The Pandemic

--There are more than 100,000 people hospitalized with Covid-19 in the United States, a level not seen since Jan. 30 – when vaccines were not widely available – as the country grapples with the Delta variant.

Hospitalizations are highest across the South.  More than 17,000 people are currently hospitalized with Covid in Florida, which has the most of any state in the country, followed by Texas with more than 14,000.

Amid a raging debate over mask requirements in schools, current pediatric hospitalizations have reached 2,100 nationally, topping 2,000 for the first time since August 2020.

New cases of coronavirus are being reported across the country at levels not seen since January as well, but overall deaths are far lower today…an average of 1,100 as of Wednesday vs. 3,100 at the end of January.

--Separately, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Monday granted full approval to Pfizer-BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine, the first to move beyond emergency authorization status since the pandemic began.

The highly anticipated announcement is expected to boost confidence in the vaccine, and hopefully a substantial number of the 85 million who are unvaccinated in the country will now get the shots.  It will also lead to a wave of new vaccine mandates by employers and schools.

Covid-19 death tolls, as of tonight….

World…4,497,646
USA…653,405
Brazil…578,326
India…437,403
Mexico…256,287
Peru…198,064
Russia…180,041
UK…132,243
Indonesia…130,781
Italy…129,002
Colombia…124,648
France…114,083
Argentina…111,270
Iran…105,287
Germany…92,260
Spain…84,000
South Africa…81,187
Poland…75,335
Turkey…55,713
Ukraine…53,632
Chile…36,807
Romania…34,490
Philippines…32,841
Ecuador…32,166
Czechia…30,399
Hungary…30,057
Canada…26,881
Bangladesh…25,846
Pakistan…25,415
Belgium…25,354
Tunisia…23,030
Iraq…20,559

U.S. daily death tolls…Sun. 198; Mon. 406; Tues. 1,134; Wed. 1,371; Thurs. 1,289; Fri. 1,304.

Covid Bytes

--An NBC News poll finds 53 percent of Americans approve of President Biden’s handling of the pandemic (a 16-point drop from April).   37 percent say the worst is behind us, while 42 percent say the worst is yet to come.  Back in April, 61 percent of Americans said the worst was behind us, versus 19 percent who said the worst was yet to come.

In the same poll, Dr. Anthony Fauci receives divided marks, with 40 percent viewing him positively and 36 percent viewing him negatively.  A year ago, it was 50 percent positive, 13 percent negative.

--Johnson & Johnson said a booster of its Covid-19 vaccine provided a rapid and strong increase in antibodies, supporting use of a second shot among people who previously received its single-dose immunization.

A second dose of the J&J vaccine led to a ninefold increase in Covid-19 fighting antibodies compared with the levels participants had 28 days after getting their first shot, the healthcare giant said Wednesday, citing interim data from an early-stage trial.

Trial participants were given the booster six months after the first shot, according to Johnson & Johnson.  Significant increases in antibody responses were seen in subjects ages 18 to 55 years old, and among those 65 or older who were given a lower dose of the booster.

Earlier, Pfizer said fresh data out of Israel provided encouraging news about the effectiveness of coronavirus boosters in seniors.  A study by the Israeli health ministry found that a third dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine provided four times as much protection against infection as two doses in people 60 and older.

The level of protection was five to six times higher against serious illness and hospitalization, according to the study published Sunday.

--A new study from Columbia University estimates that nearly one-third of the U.S. population – 103 million Americans – may have contracted Covid-19 by the end of 2020, with only a fraction of those cases correctly reported in public health reports.

Researchers found that those with mild to no symptoms were not likely to report their infections and exacerbated the spread of the virus, the study published Thursday in Nature magazine.

“The vast majority of infections were not accounted for by the number of confirmed cases,” Jeffrey Shaman, professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health said in a press release.  “It is these undocumented cases, which are often mild or asymptomatic infections, that allow the virus to spread quickly through the broader population.”

--Japan suspended use of about 1.63 million doses of Moderna vaccine Thursday after contamination was found in unused vials, raising concern of a supply shortage as the country tries to accelerate vaccinations amid a Covid-19 surge.

The health ministry said contamination was reported from multiple vaccination sites.  Some doses might have been administered, but no adverse health effects have been reported so far, officials said.

By week’s end the story was that metal particles had found their way into the vaccines, which did not pose a safety or efficacy risk.  New Moderna vaccines are being shipped.

About 43% of the Japanese population have been fully vaccinated.

Separately, Japan expanded its state of emergency for a second week in a row, adding several more prefectures as the ongoing surge in infections further strains the health care system.

--The latest U.S. intelligence report on the origins of Covid-19 is inconclusive, according to early reports – an outcome that will do little to quell debate about whether the virus spread to humans directly from animals or leaked from a research lab in Wuhan, China.

President Biden received the report this week after asking for a deeper examination of the pandemic’s origins.  The White House is preparing to release an unclassified version in the coming days.

The report doesn’t point squarely to one source as the likely origin of the outbreak, echoing previous intelligence assessments.

--During the Woodstock festival in 1969, master of ceremonies Edward “Chip” Monck famously issued this warning: “Uh, to get back to the warning that I’ve received, you might take it with however many grains of salt you wish, that the brown acid that is circulating around us is not specifically too good.  It’s suggested that you do stay away from that.  Of course it’s your own trip, so be my guest.  But please be advised that there’s a warning on that one, okay?”

Well, as Covid-19 surges in parts of the nation, some state health officials, and the FDA, are being forced to issue warnings on the drug ivermectin – a drug intended for treating worms in livestock – that some are taking to prevent or treat the coronavirus.

Mississippi State Health Officer Thomas Dobbs was left baffled this week after one person was hospitalized for ingesting the horse dewormer medication to treat the virus.

“Please don’t do that,” he said.

Last weekend, the FDA re-upped its warning, tweeting: “You are not a horse.  You are not a cow.  Seriously, y’all.  Stop it.”

But Fox News hosts Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham have promoted the use of ivermectin as an alternative Covid treatment to millions of viewers.

Merck, an ivermectin manufacturer, has said it did not support the drug’s safety and efficacy for use as a Covid remedy.

Wall Street and the Economy

At the virtual annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium this morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the U.S. economy is advancing toward the point where tapering asset purchases will be feasible, but he offered no time frame for the expected policy change.

“My view is that the ‘substantial further progress’ test has been met for inflation,” Powell said.  “There has also been clear progress toward maximum employment.”

Powell said the rise in the Delta variant and issues with childcare have held back employment, but he said those factors are fading, and that “the prospects are good for continued progress toward maximum employment.”

More hawkish Fed policymakers have indicated in recent days that the central bank should soon set a timetable for tapering its $120 billion in monthly government and debt purchases, and complete the process quickly so that it can begin to focus on interest rate increases.

The Fed’s policymaking Federal Open Market Committee next meets Sept. 21-22.

“At the FOMC’s recent July meeting, I was of the view, as were most participants, that if the economy evolved broadly as anticipated, it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year,” Powell said.  “The intervening month has brought more progress in the form of a strong employment report for July, but also the further spread of the Delta variant.”

The August employment report on Sept. 3 could help determine the effect that these factors have had on employment more recently, though I’d argue Powell will try to convince the FOMC to wait until the September jobs report, in early October, as that would be a more accurate reflection of the labor situation after the nation’s schools have reopened.

Were this to be the case, then it would be the November FOMC meeting when the formal taper announcement would come.

On the other hand, the September jobs report will only be for a survey taken the first two weeks of the month….just musing, sports fans!

As for the inflation issue, I totally concur with Chair Powell that it is transitory, and that will be seen in the coming months with the data as we “wash out of” the early numbers from the pandemic and lockdowns, when prices on many products and for sectors collapsed.

Finally, when it comes to hiking interest rates, Powell sought to make it crystal clear…tapering is one issue…beginning to raise rates is a totally different one, and don’t look for any move in this sphere until late 2022 at the earliest, unless the chairman is way off on his optimism concerning prices.

On the economic data front this week….

Inflation hawks will point to a component in today’s release of July figures on personal income, up 1.1% (better than expected), and consumption 0.3% (slightly less so).  More importantly, in terms of the Fed, the personal consumption expenditures index for July, the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer, came in hot…up 0.4%, 4.2% year-over-year, the highest since Nov. 1990.

The core PCE was 0.3%, 3.6% Y/Y, the hottest since Feb. 1991.  It’s this latter number in particular that Chair Powell expects to begin to rollover in the coming months.

Meanwhile, July existing home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.99 million, slightly above forecasts and 2% higher than the prior month, according to the National Association of Realtors, with the median existing-home price in July easing to $359,900 from a revised record high of $362,800 the prior month, NAR said.  The median price was still up 18% from July 2020.

July new home sales were in line, 708,000 ann.

July durable goods were -0.1%, but up 0.7% ex-transportation.

And we had a second reading on second-quarter GDP, up a tick from the first estimate at 6.6% annualized, stronger that the 6.3% pace in the first quarter, and 4.5% in Q4 2020.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for the third quarter is down to 5.1%.

Lastly, there is no doubt that the supply chain crunch continues and this presents a fly in the ointment of some of the Fed’s forecasts. What was meant to be a temporary issue will now last well into next year and it’s about Covid…the Delta variant, which has significantly reduced production in many parts of Southeast Asia and China.

Manufacturers, reeling from shortages of key components and higher raw material and energy costs, are being forced into bidding wars to get space on vessels, pushing freight rates to records and prompting some exporters to raise prices or simply cancel shipments altogether.

The cost of sending a container from Asia to Europe is about 10 times higher than in May 2020, while the cost from Shanghai to Los Angeles has grown more than sixfold, according to the Drewry World Container Index.  A single small accident “could easily have its effects compounded,” HSBC Holdings Plc. said in a note.  Think last year’s Suez Canal debacle.

Europe and Asia

As Europeans snap up their final vacations of the summer, including Euro bureaucrats, similar to Washington’s, we did have flash August PMI readings for the eurozone.

The EA 19 composite was 59.5, with manufacturing at 61.5 and services at 59.7 (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction).  All robust, but down slightly from prior months.

Germany: Manufacturing 62.7, services 61.5
France: Mfg. 57.3, services 56.4

UK: Mfg. 60.1, services 55.5

Chris Williamson / IHS Markit

“Th eurozone’s recovery retained impressive momentum in August, with the PMI dipping only slightly from July’s recent high to put its average in the third quarter so far at the highest for 21 years.

“Although the spread of the Delta variant caused widespread problems across the region, curbing demand and causing further supply issues, firms benefited from virus containment measures easing to the lowest since the pandemic began.

“Supply chain delays continue to wreak havoc, however, leaving companies frequently unable to meet demand and pushing firms’ costs higher. These costs, combined with surging demand, led to another near-record increase in average selling prices for goods and services, though there are some welcome signs that these inflationary pressures may have peaked for now.

“Encouragement comes from a second month of job creation at the strongest for 21 years, which reflects efforts by firms to boost operating capacity and meet demand, which should ultimately further help bring price pressures down. The concern is that we are seeing some upward movement on wage growth as a result of the job market gain, which could feed through to higher inflation and supply delays from Asia in particular look likely to persist for some time to come.”

Turning to Asia, there was little economic news.

We had flash August PMI data for Japan…51.0 for manufacturing, 43.5 services (vs. July’s 47.4, as further Covid-19 related restrictions hit the sector).

Lots of economic news next week.

Street Bytes

--Stocks continued to hit new highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ending the week at record levels, Friday’s strong rally on the back of Fed Chair Powell’s dovish remarks and reassurances no one has to worry about any sudden moves on the rate front…for a long time to come.  Bond tapering, yes…before year end.  But the markets are now accepting of this.

For the week, the Dow Jones rose 1% to 35455, while the S&P was up 1.5% to a record 4509, and Nasdaq gained 2.8% to a new closing high of 15129.

The Russell 2000 small-cap index, which has been underperforming recently, surged 5.1% on the week.

Next week we get a key jobs report for August, as well as readings on manufacturing and the service sector.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 0.05%  2-yr. 0.22%  10-yr. 1.31%  30-yr. 1.92%

The yield on the 10-year was rising this week on taper fears, but they were largely quelled by Powell’s speech today and the increase for the week was held down to 5 basis points.

--Bloomberg reported that Joe Biden’s advisers are considering a recommendation to the president that would pair a second term for Jerome Powell as Fed chair with the nomination of Lael Brainard as the central bank’s chief regulator, a plan that could placate progressives resistant to Powell.

Brainard is also a contender for the Fed chair position, but her elevation to vice chair for supervision, replacing Randall Quarles, could soothe progressive Democrats who have raised concerns about Powell’s record on regulation.

Powell maintains broad support inside the White House and from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, to remain as chair.

Biden is not expected to decide on the fate of Powell until the fall.

--Inventories of commercial crude in the U.S. fell for the third consecutive week as oil prices bounced back from recent declines, partly driven by recovering oil demand in India, as Covid restrictions have been lifted there.

According to data from the Energy Information Administration, stockpiles are about 6% lower than the five-year average for this time of year.

Crude, as measured by West Texas Intermediate, rallied back $6 on the week to close at $68.67.

--Best Buy Co. shares surged as the company reported better than expected results for the fiscal second quarter and raised its comparable sales growth guidance for the full year on the back of increased appetite for technology products amid hybrid work arrangements.

The electronics retailer on Tuesday reported adjusted earnings of $2.98 per share for the three months to July 31, up from $1.71 a year ago.  Revenue rose to $11.85 billion from $9.91bn, vs. the Street’s forecast of $11.54bn.

Comparable store sales advanced about 20% vs. a year ago, when operations were partially limited to curbside service or in-store appointments.

“Customer demand for technology products and services during the quarter remained very strong,” CEO Corie Barry said.  “The demand was also bolstered by the overall strong consumer spending ability, aided by government stimulus, improving wages and high savings levels.”

Domestic revenue climbed 21%, while international sales increased more than 7%.

Comparable sales are projected to decline 1% to 3% in the current quarter, but this is less than analysts have been forecasting.

Best Buy expects fiscal 2022 comp store sales growth of between 9% and 11% from the prior guidance of 3% to 6%.

“We now serve a much larger install base of consumer electronics with customers who have an elevated appetite to upgrade due to constant technology innovation and needs that reflect permanent life changes, like hybrid work and streaming entertainment content,” Barry said.

Best Buy shares were also helped by the statement that the company has stocked up on enough goods to handle holiday sales demand this year despite supply-chain disruptions that have undercut the retail sector’s inventory restocking efforts.

--Luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc. reported fiscal third-quarter profit of $234.9 million, topping expectations.  The company posted revenue of $2.26 billion in the period, also surpassing Street forecasts.

Quarter-end backlog, in both dollars and units, were all-time records…10,661 for the latter, up 47%.

For its current fiscal quarter, Toll sees deliveries of 3,450 units, with an average delivered price per home of $840,000.

--The world’s largest contract chip maker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., is raising prices by as much as 20%, a move that could result in consumers paying more for electronics.

TSM plans to increase the price of its most advanced chips by roughly 10%, while less advanced chips used by customers like auto makers will cost about 20% more.  The higher prices will generally take effect late this year or next year, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The price increases come in the wake of a global semiconductor shortage that has affected Apple and most car makers.  Longer term, TSM will be able to increase capacity with the higher income.  Recently, the company started construction on a $12 billion facility in Arizona.

--The Federal Aviation Administration is looking into Boeing’s corporate culture, which an agency official said “appears to hamper” Boeing employees responsible for providing oversight, raising safety concerns and otherwise representing the agency’s interests.

In a letter to the company last week, the official, Ian Won, said that the F.A.A.’s review was based on a recent survey of a few dozen of the 1,400 Boeing employees who work on the agency’s behalf through a program called Organization Designation Authorization.  Boeing’s structure appears “to provide a strong influence” over how those employees are appointed, managed and allowed to work, he said, providing “ample opportunity for interference rather than independence.”

--Chinese regulators are considering pressing data-rich companies to hand over management and supervision of their data to third-party firms if they want U.S. stock listings, sources said, as part of Beijing’s unprecedented scrutiny of private sector firms.

The regulators believe bringing in third-party information security firms, ideally state-backed, to manage and monitor IPO hopefuls’ data could effectively limit their ability to transfer Chinese onshore data overseas.

Beijing claims it has growing concerns that a foreign listed Chinese company might force some of them to hand over data to foreign entities and undermine national security.

“This is one more piece of evidence that private companies do not exist in the People’s Republic of China, they are all under the control of the Chinese Communist Party,” U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs committee, said in a statement.

“Any company that does business in the PRC must answer to the CCP, threatening investor transparency, consumer privacy, and national security,” he added.

--Delta Air Lines on Wednesday said employees will have to pay $200 more every month for their company-sponsored healthcare plan if they choose not to be vaccinated against Covid-19.  The move to add a surcharge to health insurance contributions is the latest tactic by corporate America to push employees to get the shots to fight the pandemic, though United Airlines has mandated shots for their employees to protect their operations from the highly contagious Delta variant. 

Delta CEO Ed Bastian said the monthly surcharge would take effect on Nov. 1.  He said the surcharge is necessary to address the financial risk the airline faces from the decision to not vaccinate.

American Airlines and Southwest are “strongly encouraging” their employees to get vaccinated, offering various incentives to do so.

--Meanwhile, American joined other U.S. carriers in warning that the Delta variant is slowing sales and leading travelers to cancel flight reservations, pushing August revenue below the company’s expectations.

American is also preparing for a more “muted” uptick in business travel into the fourth quarter, but isn’t yet ready to change its financial guidance.  [I warned you of this weeks and weeks ago.]

--Southwest, which last week warned on slowing traffic, said it is cutting some flights this fall as it tries to fix operational problems that have caused flight delays and cancellations to mount this summer.

The trims are intended to help the airline better align staffing with operations and allow hiring to catch up following a difficult summer, the company said.

--Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary warned the Irish aviation and tourism industries are facing “four to five years” of difficulties.

He also said Ryanair, Europe’s biggest discount airliner, is moving “10-20 percent” of its Irish capacity to other European countries where aviation is recovering faster.

O’Leary sharply criticized the Irish government’s handling of aviation during the pandemic and accused the Minister for Transport Eamon Ryan of doing “nothing for the sector for 13 months.”

O’Leary added that the idea that domestic holidaymakers could save Irish tourism was “bizarre” and claimed the sector would face serious trouble unless the State fought to win back routes to boost inbound tourism.

Being rather connected to the Irish golfing industry, picture having two summers in-a-row with zero traffic from the United States and Canada.  The clubs are booked solid with locals playing, but at drastically reduced revenues, and with severe restrictions on clubhouse activities, i.e., further revenues lost.  And, of course, the hotel and B&B sector is suffering mightily.  It’s sad.

--TSA checkpoint travel numbers vs. 2019

8/26…71 percent of 2019 level
8/25…70
8/24…73
8/23…77
8/22…79
8/21…83
8/20…78
8/19…77

*8/1 remains top day post-pandemic with 2,238,462 travelers.

**There have been no days with 2 million travelers since 8/15.  All about the Delta variant.

--Salesforce.com reported a boost in quarterly sales and again lifted its full-year outlook in a sign that companies continue their bet on cloud computing for business applications.

The business-software provider has been a big beneficiary of the pandemic, as companies embrace the enterprise tools Salesforce offers.  Its shares have jumped more than 75% since the start of the coronavirus crisis.

Salesforce posted revenue of $6.34 billion, up 23% from the same quarter a year ago.

The company is seeing a workplace response to the Delta variant that has only reinforced the adoption of digital tools.  Salesforce had opened half of its offices after pandemic lockdowns, but since the new strain appeared people are showing up less frequently.

Salesforce completed its $27.7 billion acquisition of chat-based business communication company Slack Technologies Inc. last month, as Salesforce pushes to become a more formidable rival to Microsoft Corp.

--Shares in Nordstrom plummeted 17% on Wednesday after the department store chain reported revenue rose to $3.66 billion during the three months ended July 31, up from $1.86bn a year ago as spending recovered.  But while that result beat expectations, it was still below $3.78 billion reported in the same period in the pandemic-free 2019, which is how retailers should be measured these days.

Nordstrom’s second-quarter earnings per share of $0.49, was less than the corresponding period of 2019, when earnings stood at $0.90.

Nordstrom also sees expense pressures, primarily related to freight and labor costs, continuing in the second half, as it only expects to be in a position to return cash to shareholders by the end of 2021.

“We are anticipating a continued global supply chain backlog for the balance of the year, and we are proactively managing our receipt flows to mitigate potential disruption and continue to meet customer demand,” CFO Anne Bramman said on a call with analysts.

--Among the latest companies to issue vaccine mandates of one sort or another, General Motors Co. said it would require all U.S. salaried employees to report if they have received Covid-19 vaccinations.

“GM earlier this month implemented an expanded vaccination status reporting process that was mandatory for all U.S. salaried employees.  We gathered this information via a confidential online tool,” the company said in a statement.

Tyson Foods said it is offering U.S. chicken plant workers the chance to win $10,000 once a week for the next five weeks if they have received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine. The lottery is the latest attempt to encourage vaccinations by the country’s biggest meat company by sales, as the contagious Delta variant drives an increase in cases.

--Shares in fitness bike maker Peloton fell 8% after the company slashed the price of its flagship bike as people head back to the gym and do less exercise at home.

The company is cutting the price of its less expensive Bike machine by about 20% to $1.495 as of Thursday.  The move comes as losses widened at the firm in the fourth quarter of the year and revenue growth began to slow.

Peloton has also had to shoulder costs associated with a treadmill it recalled in May, following the death of a child and dozens of injuries before the company yanked them from the market.

As more people exercised at home during the pandemic, sales of Peloton products surged, more than doubling to $4 billion in the year to June 30.

However, the New York-based firm said it only expected revenue of $800 million in the first quarter of the financial year, far below market estimates of $1bn.

Peloton then revealed in a filing today that the Department of Justice and Department of Homeland Security are demanding documents on how Peloton reported the injuries for its treadmill products.

--Dollar Tree shares fell after the discount retailer lowered its full-year earnings outlook amid increased freight costs driven by supply constraints.

The company now forecasts full-year earnings of $5.40-$5.60 per share from the previous $5.80-$6.05.  Dollar Tree also now just sees full-year same-store sales growth of 1.3%.

The company said full-year profits are being adversely impacted by surging transportation costs, with DLTR warning of a potential hit to inventories.

Rival Dollar General said its full-year profits will also take a hit as it expects its ocean carriers to fulfill only 60%-65% of their freight commitments, down from a previous outlook of 85%.

--There were conflicting reports on crop conditions in the U.S., with soybean and corn futures declining as traders weighed potentially higher crop yields against tight global supplies and prospects for more purchases by top importer China.

Pro Farmer estimates following a crop tour last week show bigger soy and corn yields than predicted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, with harvesting set to begin soon.  Recent rains in dry areas of the U.S. Midwest could also help yields, particularly for soy.

The Agriculture Department had said some 63% of the U.S. spring wheat crop is in poor or very poor condition, versus 6% at this time last year.

Any improvement in crop yields would benefit consumers because U.S. stockpiles of soybeans and corn are at their lowest in around eight years.  Traders are also waiting for any sign of further buying from China.  But corn prices in China are at their lowest level since October, signaling ample supply.

--Separately, some of the largest U.S. food distributors are reporting difficulties in fulfilling orders as a lack of workers weighs on the supply chain.

Sysco Corp., North America’s largest wholesale food distributor, is turning away customers in some areas where demand is exceeding capacity.

--Heck, McDonald’s locations in England, Wales and Scotland temporarily had to stop selling milkshakes and bottled drinks due to supply chain and logistic issues.

All over the UK, there is a shortage in heavy goods vehicle truck drivers, who are critical to delivering supplies to restaurants and chains for meal preparation.

Most of this is Covid related, including drivers notified by health authorities to isolate after a potential Covid exposure.  Plus Brexit led thousands of EU truck drivers to return to their home countries, according to both the BBC and the Financial Times.

Supermarket chains in the UK like Tesco are offering bonuses over $1,000 to incentivize truck drivers to continue delivering goods.

--Lastly, Politico, the Washington news site that has become a Beltway professionals’ staple with its scoops and inside-baseball reporting, is being acquired by German publishing giant Axel Springer in a deal that could shake up the Washington media scene.

Springer will take control of Politico and its sister site, Politico Europe, in a deal valued at more than $1 billion.

Foreign Affairs

Afghanistan, cont’d: Prior to Thursday’s attack, as G7 leaders discussed ways to get as many people as possible out of Afghanistan this week, the EU and NATO nations most likely to receive Afghans, Greece and Turkey, were building border walls to keep them out.

The G7 virtual meeting of leaders on Tuesday faced a fundamental reality, that Western operations at the airport remain dependent on the Taliban, effectively allowing them to dictate who gets out.  But it largely ignored another reality, that more of Afghanistan’s 39 million population may want to leave, and few countries will want them. 

Many Afghans have been making their way to Europe, but the journey has new border walls intended to make it as difficult as possible.  [Even Pakistan, home to an estimated 1.7 million registered Afghan refugees, said it can take no more.]

Following the 2015 migrant surge, European Union officials were highly critical of nations such as Hungary that followed President Trump in building high-profile border walls.  But that rhetoric has changed since European Commissioner for Home Affairs Yiva Johansson defended the right of both Greece and Lithuania to build new border fences (in the case of Lithuania, to keep out refugees from the border with Belarus, where more than 4,000 migrants, mainly from the Middle East, have crossed over).

French President Emmanuel Macron has said for weeks that Europe needed to protect itself against a potential surge in Afghan refugees, but France has committed itself to continuing to evacuate those who worked with its forces as long as possible from Kabul.

But once again, Turkey finds itself in the eye of the storm.  The nation is already home to 4 million Syrian refugees, and has rarely been shy of using migrants as an issue with which to win leverage with Western states.  As well as controlling what is likely to be the main path to Europe for Afghan migrants, Turkey is also under international pressure to secure a deal allowing it to keep Kabul airport open once Western forces withdraw.

So for now, in these final days the West’s priority is getting Afghans out. But that could shift, immediately, to keeping the remainder trapped in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, or some other grim hinterland.

Meanwhile, the Taliban, trying to prove they can govern, have asked all women healthcare workers to return to work, after so many trained and educated Afghans have fled the country.  “They will face no impediment to performing their duties from the Islamic Emirate,” a statement from a spokesman said.

Israel: President Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in talks at the White House today that he was putting “diplomacy first” to try to rein in Iran’s nuclear program but if negotiations fail, he would be prepared to turn to other unspecified options.

Biden and Bennett held their first meeting seeking to reset U.S.-Israeli relations and narrow differences over how to deal with Iran’s nuclear developments.  The meeting was delayed a day due to the deadly suicide bombing in Kabul.

U.S.-Iran negotiations have stalled as Washington awaits the next move by Iran’s new hardline president.

“I was happy to hear your clear words that Iran will never be able to acquire a nuclear weapon,” Bennett told Biden.  “You emphasized that you’ll try the diplomatic route but there’s other options if that doesn’t work out,” he added, also stopping short of identifying the possibilities.

Bennett told reporters at the White House that Israel has developed a “comprehensive strategy” to keep Iran away from nuclear breakout and stop its “regional aggression.”

On the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Biden and Bennett remain far apart.  Biden has renewed backing for a two-state solution after Trump distanced himself from that longstanding tenet of U.S. policy. Bennett opposes Palestinian statehood.

China: Vice President Kamala Harris delivered a sharp rebuke to China for its incursions in the South China Sea, warning its actions there amount to “coercion” and “intimidation” and affirming that the U.S. will support its allies in the region against Beijing’s advances.

“We know that Beijing continues to coerce, to intimidate and to make claims to the vast majority of the South China Sea,” she said in a major foreign policy speech Tuesday in Singapore in which she laid out the Biden administration’s vision for the Indo-Pacific.  “Beijing’s actions continue to undermine the rules-based order and threaten the sovereignty of nations.”

The administration has been seeking to solidify its pivot towards Asia while America’s decades-long focus on the Middle East comes to a messy end with the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Harris underscored this shift, calling the Indo-Pacific “critically important to our nation’s security and prosperity,” while “it is also imperative that as we address developments in one region, we continue to advance our interests in other regions, including this region.”

Harris was careful to emphasize that the U.S. is seeking engagement in the region, not just to counter China, but to advance an “optimistic vision that we have for our participation and partnership in the region.”

But after the speech in Singapore, Harris traveled to Vietnam, and the Vietnamese clearly said they will not be pressured into choosing sides.

And Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece the Global Times recently carried an editorial urging Taiwan to stop “bonding themselves to the anti-Chinese mainland chariot of the U.S.,” arguing that the U.S. would not bother waging a costly war with China over Taiwan.

Random Musings

--Presidential approval ratings….

Gallup: New figures (survey conducted Aug. 2-17)…49% approve of President Biden’s job performance, 48% disapprove, down from a 50-45 split for July 6-21.  The 49% approval rating is down from a high of 57% for Biden.

Only 43% of independents approve of Biden’s performance, down from 48% last survey, and a high of 61% after the inauguration.  This is the one number that should concern Democrats the most in terms of 2022.

Only 7% approve of Biden’s job performance among Republicans, 93% of Democrats do.

Rasmussen: 45% approve of Biden’s performance, 53% disapprove (Aug. 27).

A new CBS News/YouGov poll (Aug. 18-20), gave Biden a 50% approval rating, down from 58% in July and 62% in March.  50% disapprove, up from 38% in March.

A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll, conducted Aug. 19-23, has Biden’s overall job approval rating all the way down to 41%, versus 55% who disapprove.  Only 32% of independents say he’s doing a good job.

And in a new NBC News survey, Biden’s job approval was 49%, 48% disapproving, down from April when the same poll had 53% approving of Biden’s performance, while 39% disapproved – with some of the biggest declines for the president coming from independents, rural residents and white respondents.  [This poll was conducted Aug. 14-17.]

--New York’s first female governor, Kathy Hochul, was sworn into office on Tuesday, promising to change the state’s political culture and work to ensure that New Yorkers “believe in their government again.”

Hochul takes over the governor’s office in the wake of a sexual harassment scandal that drove her predecessor, Andrew Cuomo, from power.

But Monday afternoon, Cuomo gave his final address, taped, and after allegations from 11 women that he had sexually harassed them, his message was clear: He’s not sorry.

“The attorney general’s report was designed to be a political firecracker on an explosive topic, and it worked,” he said.  “There was a political and media stampede.  But the truth will out in time – of that, I am confident.”

At another point, Cuomo called the investigation led by state Attorney General Letitia James “unjust” and “unfair.”

To hear Cuomo tell it, he was resigning his office solely because he didn’t want a fight over the allegations to dominate the state’s business.  “Prolonging this situation could only cause governmental paralysis,” he said at one point.

So Cuomo exits the stage without acknowledging in any fashion that what he did was wrong or to show any remorse for his behavior.  With this performance, any idea he may have had about a political comeback in the future was thrown out the window.

--A Quinnipiac University poll spells trouble for Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, as his state struggles with one of the highest rates of Covid-19 in the country.  Fifty-one percent of voters in the state disapprove of his handling of the response to the pandemic, while 46 percent approve.  However, back in July 2020, 57 percent disapproved and 38 percent approved.

In the new survey, Republicans approve 85-9 percent of the way the governor is handling the response, while Democrats disapprove 93-6 percent and independents disapprove 55-43 percent.

When it comes to the way DeSantis is handling the public schools, voters give DeSantis a negative 44-51 percent approval rating.

But today, Leon County Circuit Judge John Cooper said DeSantis overstepped his authority when he issued an executive order prohibiting school officials from mandating the use of masks in their districts.  The order was unconstitutional and cannot be enforced, Cooper said.

The ruling came after at least 10 districts voted to ignore DeSantis’ order.

Voters in Florida give President Biden a negative 40-53 percent job approval rating.  On his handling of the response to the coronavirus, they give him a mixed grade, with 47 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving.

Florida voters give Senator Rick Scott (R) a mixed job approval rating, as 42 percent approve, 40 percent disapproving.

Senator Marco Rubio (R) receives a positive approval rating, as 49 percent approve, 38 percent disapprove.

Gov. DeSantis and Sen. Rubio are up for reelection in 2022.

--The House of Representatives Select Committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol issued its first demands for documents from government agencies on Wednesday, including communications involving some of former President Donald Trump’s closest advisers and family.

The panel also made extensive requests for material from the departments of Defense, Homeland Security, Interior and Justice, FBI, National Counterterrorism Center and Office of the Director of National Intelligence.  The committee’s Democratic chairman, Rep. Bennie Thompson, gave the agencies two weeks – until Sept. 9 – to produce the materials.

Among the requests were documents and communications about Trump’s allegations of election fraud involving Trump’s former chief of staff, Mark Meadows, and the members of his legal team including Rudy Giuliani, Sidney Powell and Kurt Olsen.  The letters also ask for documents and communications related to members of his family, some of whom had official roles at the White House. 

--Attorney General Merrick Garland urged state and local election officials on Thursday to immediately provide the FBI any threatening communications they received following a rise in threats against U.S. election administrators.

“To help us help you, I urge that you preserve and immediately provide to the FBI any threatening communications you received in any form,” Garland told a meeting of election officials that was also attended by the director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation and senior Justice Department officials. 

“Our attention to his issue will not wane,” said Garland.  “The Department is committed to investigating and prosecuting violations of federal law against election officials and election workers, and to supporting your safety and security.”

The intimidation has been particularly severe in Georgia, where Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and other Republican election officials refuted Donald Trump’s stolen-election claims.

--Nearly 1.3 billion people globally suffer from hypertension, a silent killer often driven by obesity that increases the risk of heart disease, stroke and kidney disease, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Wednesday.  Hypertension can be easily diagnosed by monitoring blood pressure, and treated with low-cost drugs, but half of affected people are unaware of their condition which is left untreated, the WHO and Imperial College London said in a joint study published in The Lancet.

It's sad, as this is so treatable, but in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa, parts of Southeast Asia, Pacific island nations like my beloved island of Yap, they just aren’t getting the treatments that are needed.

Some 17.9 million people died in 2019 from cardiovascular diseases, accounting for one in three global deaths, with hypertension a major factor, according to the WHO.

--Sen. Robert F, Kennedy’s assassin, Sirhan Sirhan, was granted parole today after two of RFK’s sons spoke in favor of his release and prosecutors declined to argue he should be kept behind bars.

Sirhan, now 77, still must wait while the parole is reviewed over the next 90 days by the California Parole Board’s staff.  Then it is sent to the governor, who has 30 days to decide whether to grant it, reverse it or modify it.

Speaking of California Gov. Gavin Newsom, voting is underway in the effort to recall him on Sept. 14.

--Finally, Hurricane Ida is taking direct aim at the Louisiana/Mississippi coast this weekend, potentially Sunday afternoon, and it’s not looking good.  We pray for the region.

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And pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.  Remember all the good they’ve done…truly, the Best of America.

We thank our first responders and healthcare workers.

God bless America. 

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Gold $1820
Oil $68.67

Returns for the week 8/23-8/27

Dow Jones  +1.0%  [35455]
S&P 500  +1.5%  [4509]
S&P MidCap  +3.4%
Russell 2000  +5.1%
Nasdaq  +2.8%  [15129]

Returns for the period 1/1/21-8/27/21

Dow Jones  +15.8%
S&P 500  +20.1%
S&P MidCap  +20.0%
Russell 2000  +15.3%
Nasdaq  +17.4%

Bulls 50.0
Bears 18.5…prior week’s split 51.1 / 18.5

Hang in there.

Brian Trumbore

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