Week in Review

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Week in Review

11/13/2021

For the week 11/8-11/12

[Posted 9:00 PM ET, Friday]

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Special thanks to Jeff B. for his longtime support.

Edition 1,178

Last week, I was holding off posting, waiting to see if the House would vote on the infrastructure bill, and about an hour after I did so, the House indeed passed the $1-$1.2 trillion package to modernize highways, rebuild water lines and provide billions for electric vehicle charging stations, the largest transportation spending package in U.S. history.

Thirteen Republicans pushed the bill to approval in a 228-206 vote after Democratic infighting threatened to sink the plan.  Six Democrats, members of “The Squad,” had voted against.

Among the items and dollars allocated:

$110 billion for roads and bridges.
$66 billion for Amtrak for passenger and freight rail.  One aim is to eliminate Amtrak’s maintenance backlog and modernize the Northeast Corridor.
$65 billion to expand broadband internet access.
$65 billion to rebuild the electric grid with renewable energy and thousands of miles of new power lines.
$55 billion to upgrade water systems.
$42 billion for airports, waterways and port infrastructure.
$39 billion for public transit.
$7.5 billion for charging stations for electric vehicles and $7.5 billion for electric buses.

It's a big win for President Biden, as the focus now turns to the “Build Back Better Act” (which is next week’s topic in this space).

Democrats only wish this had been approved prior to the election, especially in Virginia.  It would have made a difference, though just how much is indeterminable.

Former President Donald Trump then ripped the 13 congressional Republicans.

“Very sad that the RINOs in the House and Senate gave Biden and Democrats a victory on the ‘Non-Infrastructure’ Bill,” Trump said in a statement.  “All Republicans who voted for Democrat longevity should be ashamed of themselves.”

“I can’t believe Republicans just gave the Democrats their socialism bill,” Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) said.

“That 13 House Republicans provided the votes needed to pass this is absurd,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Tex.) said.

“RINOS just passed this wasteful $1.2 trillion dollar ‘infrastructure’ bill,” Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) wrote on Twitter. “Time to name names and hold these fake republicans accountable.”

Others threatened before the vote to target or launch primaries against the defectors in their midst.

“Vote for this infrastructure bill and I will primary the hell out of you,” Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.) said shortly before the vote; Cawthorn being the president of the POS club.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) warned last week that any Republican who voted for the bill would be “a traitor to our party, a traitor to their voters and a traitor to our donors.”  After the vote, she accused the 13 of having voted to “pass Joe Biden’s Communist takeover of America” and tweeted the phone numbers to their congressional offices.

To which Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), one of the 13 siding with Democrats, jabbed back at Greene for her claim about “communism.”

“Infrastructure=communism is a new one,” he tweeted.  “Eisenhower’s interstate system should be torn up or else the commies will be able to conveniently drive! Red Dawn in real life.”

I was also reminded why I no longer subscribe to the National Review, as it editorialized in part after the vote:

“Every Republican who voted for this monstrosity who is not already retiring should be primaried and defeated by candidates who will actually resist the Left-wing agenda.  Those who are retiring should be shamed for the rest of their lives. It also is not too soon to be asking whether Representative Kevin McCarthy should be ousted from leadership for his inability to keep his caucus together on such a crucial vote.”

The bill had passed the Senate in August, with 19 Republicans signing on, and has been repeatedly defended by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, as well as the likes of Sens. Lindsey Graham, Chuck Grassley and Mitt Romney.  It includes lots of popular projects and many of the same Republican congressmen who are blasting the 13, will be campaigning as if they voted for it….they’ll have to.

But we live in this crappy era where even an overall good piece of legislation, which past presidents, both Republicans and Democrats, failed to push through, yet finally gains bipartisan approval, is cause for bloodletting inside the GOP.

According to a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll, the infrastructure bill is backed by 2-1 (61%-32%) among those surveyed.  The supporters include a third of Republicans.

Editorial / New York Post

“Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, Republican from Staten Island, is an honorable politician who represents the interests of her district. She’s a conservative who has a common-sense approach to the problems facing our city and nation.

“In short, she does not deserve the abuse of former President Donald Trump, who bashed Malliotakis and 12 other Republicans who voted for the infrastructure bill.

“Is the legislation perfect?  Of course not.  But as Washington spendapaloozas go, it has the chance to do some good, upgrading the subways and buses of New York City and breaking ground on the much-needed new rail tunnel under the Hudson.  The bill also swayed 19 Republican senators.

“Some commentators believe the infrastructure passage paves the way for the Democrats’ massive, and terrible, $4 trillion social-welfare plan. That’s not necessarily the case.  By giving swing-vote Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) a win, it provides cover for them to vote against the monstrosity.

“Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-Bx./Queens) voted against the infrastructure bill for just this reason.  She thought its passage hurt the progressive cause. We hope it does.

“Malliotakis did what AOC would not do – think about the people of New York.  Malliotakis didn’t vote for the bill to give Democrats a ‘win.’  She voted for it because it’s good for the city.

“If you’re on the opposite side of an issue as AOC, you’re likely doing something right.

“Trump’s opposition to the bill is self-centered: He didn’t get an infrastructure bill, so Biden shouldn’t either.  But Trump never pursued it, never endorsed a proposal.  You’re not a RINO if you voted for the legislation.

“Trump needs to focus his ire on the Democrats, and Biden, and not on insulting Republicans who are looking out for their voters.”

As for Trump and 2024, he told Fox News, Monday, “I am certainly thinking about it and we’ll see.  I think a lot of people will be very happy, frankly, with the decision, and probably will announce that after the midterms.”

Malliotakis appeared visibly shaken as Trump railed against her and the other 12 House members voting for the legislation during the National Republican Congressional Committee dinner.

Another one of the 13, Long Island Republican Rep. Andrew Garbarino, not only has been threatened, but a 64-year-old local was arrested and accused of phoning in a death threat directed at Garbarino because, according to authorities, the dirtball didn’t agree with Garbarino’s vote.  The guy was charged with aggravated harassment, police said.

As for Trump, far more on him below.

New Yorkers, though, reacted with anger after Reps. Ocasio-Cortez and Jamaal Bowman voted against the infrastructure bill.  More than $100 billion will come into New York to help fix the city and state’s crumbling infrastructure.

“New York needs this money,” one business owner told the Daily News.  “The fact that [AOC] had her own community impacted by the floods, how are you going to go against an infrastructure bill? She should think about the people who voted for her.”

The other four Democrats who voted against the legislation were fellow “Squad” members Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) and Cori Bush (D-Mo.).

Biden Agenda, part deux…a ‘win’…and then what?

--As for the $1.7-$2 trillion “Build Back Better” legislation, it’s dead…certainly in its current form.  To stay alive it would have to be knocked down further to have a chance of winning over Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi seemed to doom the Act in terms of these two by adding funds and programs to the measure at the last minute that will draw Manchin’s ire, for starters, including four weeks of paid family and medical leave to millions of Americans, a widely supported program that the West Virginia senator previously has opposed as part of the package.

But we’ll see what happens. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has his own issues.

--I discuss the inflation situation below, but for the Biden administration it’s a potential killer come next November.  Prices are now at 30-year highs and persistently higher inflation is hitting consumers’ wallets.

The United States Department of Agriculture recently reported that for a family of four, groceries in October cost $849 vs. $674 a year ago.  That’s significant.

The latest consumer and producer price figures also helped renew GOP criticism of the Build Back Better Act and its huge costs.

--On the climate change front, and the COP26 summit in Glasgow, China and the U.S. vowed to work together to slow global warming, issuing a surprise joint statement Wednesday that injected some momentum into the final days of negotiations.

The deal marks a rare moment of cooperation between superpowers who seemed at odds for much of the two-week talks.

The two sides agreed to boost their efforts to cut emissions, including by tackling methane and illegal deforestation, China’s special climate envoy Xie Zhenhua told reporters.  They will establish a working group to increase action in the 2020s – the key decade – which will meet in the first half of next year.  The U.S. counterpart John Kerry said that the group will focus on “concrete” measures.

The two countries reaffirmed the temperature goals of the Paris accord, which has a stretch target of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and recognized there is a gap between current policies and what needs to be done, Xie said.

Still, China declined to join the global pledge being pushed by the U.S. and the European Union to cut methane emissions 30% by the end of the decade from 2020 levels.  Xie said China will develop its own national plan.  Kerry admitted that he had failed to get China to move its deadline for reaching peak emissions earlier from 2030.  “We’ve peaked out on peaking,” he said.

As the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, China can do more than any other country to help the world avoid the worst effects of global warming, but it argues that its plan to reach carbon neutrality by 2060 will already be the most ambitious emissions reduction ever attempted.

Separately, also at the climate summit, automakers, airlines and governments unveiled a raft of pledges to slash greenhouse gas emissions from global transport, albeit with some conspicuous absences.  Driving, flying and shipping contribute nearly a quarter of the world’s manmade emissions, making transport a valuable target in the effort to fight climate change.

But while Ford, General Motors and Germany’s Daimler were among a group committing to phasing out fossil-fuel vehicles by 2040, Toyota and Volkswagen AG did not sign up.  Nor did China, the United States and Germany, all major vehicle markets.

As I go to post, delegates are working overtime to reach a final deal and it looks like they will close things up tomorrow. One issue is that the low-lying island nations, like a Tuvalu, dealing with impacts from climate change, want rich countries responsible for most emissions to pay up.  Having been to Micronesia multiple times, which has its share of such nations, I don’t blame them.  Yes, we should pay up!

More next week when this has all wrapped up.

Wall Street and the Economy

As alluded to above, U.S. inflation hit a three-decade high in October, with the producer price index up 0.6% for the month, 0.4% ex-food and energy, while year-over-year, the PPI surged 8.6%, 6.8% on core.

The next day we had a reading on consumer prices and they were up a far greater than expected 0.9% in the month, 0.6% on core; 6.2% year-over-year, 4.6% ex-food and energy.

The headline number, 6.2%, was the highest since Oct. 1990, while the 4.6% core figure was its highest since July 1991.

Price increases were broad-based, with higher costs for new and used autos, gasoline and other energy costs, furniture, rent and medical care, the Labor Department said.  Food prices for both groceries and dining out rose by the most in decades.  Prices fell for airline fares and alcohol (though I didn’t personally see this in the cost of my six-packs of Coors Light).

The inflation surge is complicating the Federal Reserve’s strategy for unwinding its easy-money policies, with the Fed having announced a tapering of its bond purchase program last week, but there has been growing pressure in some quarters to start raising interest rates before the first expected hike in June or July (others say not until year end, 2022).

The Fed’s leadership continues to believe the run-up in inflation is ‘transitory,’ but the price increases are lasting longer than the Fed first thought they would, and now they admit the price surge will continue into next year.  I’ve been in the Fed’s camp.  November and December’s price reports will probably be ugly, but then I see swift improvement.  The price gains have largely been concentrated in goods that have been the most affected by the combination of supply constraints and rising demand.

The danger is rising prices have worked their way into consumer expectations, which wasn’t the case in the summer, and if the labor market tightness continues, rather than dissipates as the pandemic becomes less severe, then that’s a problem.

Meanwhile, an unprecedented number of Americans, 4.4 million, quit their jobs in September, as highlighted by the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, on Friday.

The number of people who quit their jobs in the leisure and hospitality, manufacturing and health care sectors rose to record highs, as many Americans seek out more attractive opportunities, given record wage gains, and employers, desperate for talent, offering better incentives.

Separately the Treasury Department reported the federal government ran a $165 billion budget deficit during October, a smaller gap when compared with a year earlier, as the government took in higher revenue from taxes and other receipts and pulled back on spending.

Government receipts for the month rose by 19% from a year ago to $284 billion.

Federal outlays in October fell 14% to $449 billion.  Spending by the Labor Department fell particularly sharply from last year, which Treasury officials said was in part due to the winding down of expanded unemployment programs put in place during the pandemic.

In October of the previous fiscal year, the government ran a deficit of $284 billion.

Europe and Asia

Minimal economic news this week with Eurostat releasing a reading on September industrial production in the eurozone, down by 0.2% compared with August, but up 5.2% vs. a year ago.

Brexit: At week’s end it appeared the parties were trying to lower tensions, but the European Union is preparing a package of retaliatory measures in case the UK triggers Article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol – the part of the Brexit deal that pertains to the region.  The stakes are high.

If the conflict is mishandled, it could easily stoke sectarian tensions in Northern Ireland and demolish the trade agreement the EU and UK signed last year. That could put Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government back on track for what would effectively be a “no-deal” Brexit.

Ireland has called the recent talk coming out of London as “reckless and irresponsible” and Prime Minister Michael Martin said his country is preparing for a possible EU-UK trade war.

The UK government has given the EU a December deadline to find a solution on the Northern Ireland protocol, which was agreed to as a way to maintain a free-flowing land border on the island of Ireland after Brexit.

The arrangement effectively keeps Northern Ireland inside the EU’s single market for goods, resulting in some checks for products crossing the Irish Sea from Great Britain.

Unionists argue that the protocol undermines Northern Ireland’s place in the UK.  The British government objects to the European Court of Justice being the final court of appeal.

At least the Anglo-French dispute over fish appears to be calming down, France praising the latest round of talks with the UK, though a compromise over fishing licenses is yet to be reached.

Turning to Asia…China reported its October inflation data, with the CPI up 1.5% year-over-year.  But producer (factory gate) prices surged 13.5% Y/Y, well above expectations.

China also posted a record monthly trade surplus in October as exports surged despite the global supply-chain disruptions.

Exports rose 27.1% in dollar terms last month from a year earlier to $300.2 billion, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.  That was the 13th straight month of double-digit growth.  Imports increased 20.6%, leaving a trade surplus of $84.54 billion.

China’s exports through October have already surpassed all of 2020.

The strong trade performance is providing support for a Chinese economy that’s slowed sharply in recent months due to weak domestic demand caused by a real estate downturn, electricity shortages, and weak consumer spending worsened by sporadic outbreaks of the coronavirus.

China’s trade surplus with the U.S. rose to $325 billion in the 10 months through October, partly because Chinese imports of U.S. soybeans slowed due to weather-related issues in recent months.

China’s imports from the U.S. rose by 4% to $13.02 billion in October, while exports grew 22.7% to $53.77 billion.

Machines and electrical products accounted for almost 60% of Chinese exports by value thus far this year.

Japan’s wholesale inflation hit a four-decade high in October, following China’s spike, as supply bottlenecks and rising commodity costs threatened Asian corporate profits.

The rising cost pressures, coupled with a weak yen that inflates the price of imported goods, adds to the pain for the world’s third-largest economy as it emerges from the consumer slump caused by the pandemic.

The corporate goods price index, which measures the prices companies charge each other for their goods and services, surged 8.0% in October from a year earlier, exceeding market expectations for a 7.0% gain, Bank of Japan data showed on Thursday.  The increase exceeded a revised 6.4% rise in September, and was the fastest pace since comparable data became available in January 1981.

Fuel spiked 44.5% in October from a year earlier, and timber goods saw prices surge 57.0%.

Street Bytes

--Stocks broke their five-week winning streak on inflation worries, after a string of better than expected earnings reports the prior few weeks.

The major indexes had hit new closing highs on Monday, but then it was rocky sledding the rest of the way, with the Dow Jones losing 0.6% to 36100, the S&P 500 0.3% and Nasdaq 0.7%.  Hardly a bloodbath.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 0.06%  2-yr.  0.52%  10-yr. 1.57%  30-yr. 1.94%

Yields rose at week’s end after the 10-year had fallen to 1.41% on Tuesday, on renewed fear that the inflation data will force the Fed’s hand sooner than they wanted to when it comes to raising rates.

Separately, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard was interviewed for the top job at the U.S. central bank when she visited the White House last week, signaling that Chair Jerome Powell has a serious rival as President Biden considers who will lead the Fed for the next four years.

Powell’s current term expires in February, and Biden has vowed to make his decision by Thanksgiving.

Monday, Fed Governor Randal Quarles announced he would step down before the end of the year.  Quarles’ tenure as vice chair for supervision expired in October, but he could have stayed on as a governor until 2032 and his exit hands Biden another slot to fill.

In addition to the seat vacated by Quarles, Vice Chair Richard Clarida’s term as a governor expires at the end of January and there is an open position on the seven-seat board.

--Oil has been soaring as rising global consumption drained stockpiles, including in the U.S.  President Biden has been urging OPEC and its allies to quicken the pace at which they are restoring supplies taken offline at the start of the pandemic. Their refusal to heed that call has put the focus back on Biden and the steps that he could now take to try and bring crude and gasoline prices back down.

So the president, and allies such as Japan, have talked of tapping their strategic petroleum reserves, which would reduce prices, but most likely just in the short term.

Meanwhile, the administration was closely following the Energy Information Administration’s latest Short Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday.

The EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 93.34 billion cubic feet per day in 2021 and 96.69 bcfd in 2022 from 91.49 bcfd in 2020.  That compares with an all-time high of 92.87 bcfd in 2019.

The agency also projected gas consumption would slide to 83.03 bcfd in 2021 before rising to 83.06 bcfd in 2022 from 83.25 bcfd in 2020. That compares with a record high of 85.29 bcfd in 2019.

If the outlook is correct, 2021 would mark the first time consumption falls for two years in a row since 2006.

On Thursday, OPEC cut its world oil demand forecast for the last quarter of 2021 due to high energy prices, although the group stuck to its prediction of robust growth to above pre-pandemic rates in 2022.

In the end, oil, as measured by West Texas Intermediate, actually fell a third consecutive week to $80.69.

And not for nothing, but nat gas has fallen from $6.20 on Oct. 27 to $4.80.  It’s a big reason why I remain in the transitory camp, albeit with a few more months of scary data.

--Tesla CEO Elon Musk sold about $1.1 billion worth of shares to cover tax obligations on options exercised, Musk reported in filings on Wednesday.

Musk exercised options to acquire nearly 2.2 million shares of Tesla and then sold about 934,000 shares – about 0.5% of his Tesla holdings.

The move gives him cash to pay for the tax bill associated with the exercising of the options, given that his wealth, pegged by Forbes at $281.6 billion, is tied to his stake in Tesla.  It also spares him the capital gains tax bill that he would have had to pay had he sold the shares without coupling their divestment with the exercising of the options.

Tesla shares plunged on his weekend Twitter poll, asking users about selling 10% of his stake, setting off worries that such a sale could hurt Tesla’s share price.  And indeed Musk lost $50 billion in two days, the biggest such decline in the history of the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.  The shares then rallied sharply, but fell back again on word he had sold more shares to finish the week at $1,033 ($1,030 in the aftermarket, last I checked), down from the prior week’s intraday high of $1,243.

Musk will seemingly be selling far more shares in the near future based on his pledge to unload 10% of his stock.

--So then we had the IPO for Rivian Automotive Inc, the electric-truck maker, which at the end of its first day of trading, Wednesday, was valued at almost $88 billion, more than tripling its last private valuation after investors piled into 2021’s biggest initial public offering (biggest since 2014).

That put the company on par with General Motors and more valuable than Ford Motor, one of its top investors.

Backed by deep-pocketed companies such as Amazon.com Inc. and Ford, Rivian sold 153 million shares Tuesday for $78 each after marketing 135 million for $72 to $74, a range it had earlier elevated from $57 to $62.

Rivian has been investing heavily to ramp up production, doubling down on its upscale all-electric R1T pickup truck, which was launched in September.  The Irvine, California-based company plans to build at least one million vehicles a year by the end of the decade, the company said on Tuesday.

Rivian closed at $129 today, giving it a market value of $127 billion.  Ford closed the day at $77.9bn…General Motors $92bn.  Tesla, even after a rough week, stands at $1.033 trillion.

--TSA checkpoint travel numbers vs. 2019….

11/11…87 percent of 2019 level
11/10…82
11/9…68
11/8…79
11/7…91
11/6…80
11/5…80
11/4…77

Aug. 1st remains the highest post-pandemic day with 2,238,462 travelers.

--Walt Disney Co. on Wednesday reported the smallest rise in Disney+ subscriptions since it launched the streaming video service to take on Netflix Inc., missing Wall Street targets and driving shares down nearly 5% after hours, and then further the next two days.

Profits from Disney’s theme park division fell well short of analyst projections, despite the quarter being the first time all parks were open since various pandemic closures.  Capacity limits remain in place.

The stumble in both the theme parks and streaming divisions highlights the challenges Disney faces in the pandemic.  Questions remain about how and when customers will return to public entertainment and whether that limits watching at home. Disney is banking on new programming next year to boost streaming subscribers.  Theme parks will benefit from the United States reopening its borders to many vaccinated international travelers and more children getting their Covid-19 vaccine.

During the just-ended quarter, Disney+ picked up 2.1 million customers, less than half the subscribers Netflix added in roughly the same period.  Analysts had projected Disney+ would add 10.2 million.

Speaking with analysts, CEO Bob Chapek stuck by the company’s previous forecast of 230 million to 260 million Disney+ subscribers by the end of fiscal 2024.

But investors are beginning to doubt this projection. As of early October, paying subscribers to Disney+ reached 118.1 million.  Including Hulu and ESPN+, the company’s streaming customers totaled 179 million.

The company previewed a wide-ranging slate of streaming programming in development.  Chapek said most of the marquee titles from the Disney, Marvel and Star Wars brands would arrive on Disney+ from July to September next year.

Overall, Disney posted diluted earnings per share of 37 cents, below analyst projections of 51 cents.  Theme park division income reached $640 million, short of the Street’s forecast of $942 million.

Disney also missed analysts’ estimates for quarterly revenue, which rose to $18.53 billion in the fourth quarter from $14.71 billion a year earlier.  Net income was $159 million, compared with a loss of $710 million last year.

--AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. reported a sharply narrowed loss as moviegoers returned to theaters during the September quarter, but the company’s chief executive said AMC is far from out of the woods.

The world’s biggest movie-theater company reported nearly 40 million attendees during the quarter, up from about 22 million in the June quarter but still behind pre-pandemic levels.

“We’d not normally be smiling at an attendance level that is half what it was two years ago,” said AMC CEO Adam Aron.  Higher vaccination rates and a more robust release schedule are helping AMC’s performance improve, he added, with movies like the James Bond installment “No Time to Die” and “Halloween Kills” driving ticket sales during the quarter.

The September quarter was the first three-month period since the pandemic began that essentially all AMC locations were reopened world-wide.  But AMC nonetheless finds itself facing considerable challenges as moviegoing slowly returns to levels that approach pre-pandemic levels and Hollywood studios continue to give priority to streaming services that allow consumers to watch movies at home.

And Aron has to deal with an investor base of opinionated shareholders who have lobbied him to incorporate changes to his corporate strategy.

Admissions revenues in October 2021, however, were almost 90% of that seen in October 2019, Aron said on a conference call following the earnings announcement.

“One can see and feel that our industry and our company are on a path of recovery and improvement,” Aron added. Still, he said, “we need to sell more tickets in future quarters than we did in the most recent quarter.”

--Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway reported a third-quarter profit that was roughly one-third the amount of last year’s because of much smaller paper gains on the value of its investments, but most of its businesses continue to recover from the effects of the pandemic.

Berkshire Hathaway reported $10.3 billion net income, vs. $30.1 billion a year ago, when it recorded a $24.8bn paper gain on its investments.  This year, Berkshire recorded only a $3.8bn gain on investments.

Most of Berkshire’s eclectic assortment of more than 90 businesses, which includes BNSF railroad, several major utilities, a number of manufacturers as well as furniture, jewelry and chocolate businesses, reported improved earnings this year.

But its insurance businesses recorded a $784 million loss in the third quarter because of $1.7 billion in claims related to catastrophes including Hurricane Ida.

Berkshire’s cash crept up to $149.2 billion during the quarter even though Buffett used $7.6 billion to repurchase the company’s shares.  Buffett has struggled to find major acquisitions for the company in the past several years, so cash has continued to pile up.

--Bitcoin and Ether hit all-time highs Tuesday in an ongoing cryptocurrency rally that some analysts attributed partly to the search for investments to hedge risks from inflation.

Bitcoin, the world’s largest digital token, jumped as much as 3.6% to $68,513, while Ether hit $4,840.

Bitcoin was up more than 130% this year as of Tuesday and Ether some 550%, though critics say the volatility inherent in digital tokens damages their claims to being a store of value.

--General Electric will divide itself into three public companies focused on aviation, healthcare, and energy.

The company said Tuesday that it will spin off its healthcare business in early 2023 and its energy segment – which includes its renewable energy, power, and digital businesses – in early 2024. GE will maintain a 19.9 percent stake in the healthcare unit.

“By creating three industry-leading, global public companies, each can benefit from greater focus, tailored capital allocation, and strategic flexibility to drive long-term growth and value for customers, investors, and employees, Chairman and CEO Lawrence Culp Jr. said in a statement.

Culp will become non-executive chairman of the healthcare company. He will continue to serve as chairman and CEO of GE until the energy business is spun off, then lead the aviation company.

--Toshiba Corp. said it planned to split into three companies by March 2024 in response to shareholder pressure for a more focused structure, following a similar path taken by fellow industrial conglomerate GE.

One of the three units will focus on infrastructure and another on electronic devices such as power semiconductors, Toshiba said.  The third, which will retain the Toshiba name, will manage the company’s stake in flash-memory company Kioxia Holdings Corp. and other assets, it said.

The decision may not fully satisfy foreign shareholders, some of whom have called for Toshiba to be sold to a private-equity firm that would probably be more aggressive about breaking up the conglomerate.

--Then this morning, Johnson & Johnson said it is planning to break up into two companies, splitting off its consumer health division that sells Band-Aids and Baby Powder from its large pharmaceuticals unit.

The healthcare conglomerate will separate its consumer health business into a new publicly traded company.  Rival Pfizer Inc. had in 2019 combined its consumer health unit with GlaxoSmithKline plc in a joint venture.

J&J said it is aiming to complete the planned separation in 18 to 24 months, sending its shares up 5% before the bell.

The company will retain its pharmaceuticals and medical device units, which sells drugs such as cancer treatment Darzalex.

--China’s troubled property behemoth, China Evergrande, made interest payments on at least two of its bonds on Wednesday, a sign that it yet again managed to head off default.

Evergrande owed investors interest payments totaling nearly $150 million on three bonds, with the grace periods for those payments set to expire on Wednesday.  Missing them would have triggered a default that could ripple through the overall Chinese economy.

--Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. said on Friday that sales during its annual Singles’ Day shopping frenzy grew 8.5%, the slowest rate ever since Alibaba founded the festival in 2009.  “Gross merchandise value” over the 11-day event came to $84.3 billion.

Sales had grown by double digits every year since the festival started and the performance underscores strong regulatory and supply chain headwinds for China’s tech firms.  Overall consumption in China has been slowing as well, amid Covid-19 lockdowns, supply shortages and power disruptions.

Alibaba has been toning down the marketing hype as authorities tighten regulations.

In previous years, Alibaba would tout Chinese consumers’ demand for washing machines, smartphones and makeup with a night-long presentation of statistics.  But this year it used its gala to highlight initiatives such as a program that assists disabled individuals in buying apparel and efforts to use more environmentally-friendly packaging.

The e-commerce giant was fined a record $2.8 billion for monopolistic behavior in April and its founder, Jack Ma, China’s highest-profile entrepreneur, has retreated from public view after criticizing Chinese regulators a year ago.

--Manhattan apartment rents surged by the most on record as workers committed to finding nicer digs in the city in anticipation of a return to the office.

The median rent rose 18% in October from a year earlier to $3,382, according to a report from Miller Samuel Inc. and Douglas Elliman Real Estate (via Crain’s).  It was the biggest annual increase in data going back a decade.

Apartment hunters who were shut out of the suburban homebuying market are discovering they can upgrade to a better city rental instead.  Others are securing units close to the office, anticipating they’ll eventually have to go back.

Rents in buildings with doormen jumped 25% to a median of $4,263.  In non-doorman properties, which tend to be cheaper, the increase was just 7.4%.

Remember to tip your doorman heavily at Christmas or your packages will mysteriously disappear (especially food packages).

“Paul, did you see a package for me from Harry & David?”

“No, Mrs. Taliobinski,” Doorman Paul replied, as he wiped pear juice off his chin.

Meanwhile, Manhattan’s office buildings are still largely empty and according to a survey published Wednesday by the Partnership for New York City, just 28% of Manhattan office workers toiled in-person on an average weekday last month.  Just 8% of them worked in-person five days a week.

The employers surveyed said they expect just 13% of office workers to come in five days a week by the end of February.  By that time, 21% of office workers will still be fully remote, the survey said.

Bad news for mass transit ridership and the finances of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, with New York City subway ridership slowly rebounding this year, but still down more than 40% from two years ago.  Subway turnstiles clocked about 3.2 million entries per weekday last week, compared with about 5.5 million in 2019.

--Shares in Beyond Meat Inc. tumbled 17% after the company forecast revenue for the fourth quarter was well short of Wall Street expectations, citing pandemic-related uncertainty and its potential impact on retail and food-service demand levels.

Beyond Meat projected $85 million to $110 million in revenue this quarter, compared with the $101.9 million it reported for the comparable year-ago period. This is awful.

As the summer wore on and the pandemic’s Delta variant took hold, Beyond Meat didn’t see the sustained recovery it had expected, CEO Ethan Brown said in a call with analysts, pointing to what he said was overall lumpiness and timing of sales.

The company was unable to fill some orders due to labor shortages, Brown added, also citing severe weather in Pennsylvania and an explosion at one of the company’s key suppliers.  Still, he said, Beyond Meat sees the current challenges as temporary.

On Wednesday, Beyond Meat reported $106.4 million in net revenue for the third quarter, short of analysts’ projected $109.2 million.

The Pandemic

Cases are surging in Europe again, with Germany hitting new case highs almost daily.  It’s a pandemic among the unvaccinated, with cases ticking up in the United States again as well, colder weather driving people indoors.

So the Biden administration is pressing urgently to offer vaccine booster shots to all adults, but Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky has expressed caution about making extra shots so broadly available now.

The debate is coming at a crucial time for the administration, fearful the country could slide backward into a fifth wave.  It wouldn’t help the push for his economic agenda, as aides see expanding booster access as a way to backstop progress against the still highly transmissible Delta variant.  Defeating the pandemic is critical to Democrats’ hopes in the midterms as well.

Pfizer and its partner BioNTech have requested authorization from the Food and Drug Administration for booster shots for everyone 18 and older who has gone at least six months since completing their vaccine regimen.  If the FDA granted the request, it then goes to the CDC’s advisory panel, and then Walensky.

But Walensky wants to scrutinize the drug companies’ data and it seems she is leaning against a broad recommendation.

Personally, I went to a vaccination center at a nearby mall I heard about on Monday (set up in a former Sears store) to see if I could get a booster.  I didn’t technically qualify, not being 65, and then I found out when I got to the place I wasn’t from the same county they were restricting it to.

But I got in (using my former PIMCO sales hat)!  I was so fired up…within minutes I had a Pfizer booster to go along with my two Moderna shots…it being exactly six months since my second dose of Moderna.  There were tons of staff, and only about 15 folks getting shots, not necessarily all boosters, and they had to get rid of the doses so Voila!  I was more excited over this than my first shot.  [I had a sore arm for about six hours the next morning, and this was after playing some golf hours after the booster.]

I’ll never understand the vaccine hesitancy, but it’s still there…worldwide.

In Germany, 55 million are fully vaccinated, but 22 percent of adults are not. And polls are showing a strong correlation between refusal to vaccinate and support for far-right parties like Alternative for Deutschland and Austria’s Freedom Party.

Despite being one of the wealthiest countries in the world, Switzerland has the lowest Covid-19 vaccination rate in Western Europe and polling ahead of November’s election shows strong vaccine skepticism particularly among supporters of the populist Swiss People’s party, the largest party, half of whose voters are unvaccinated.

Only 23 percent of Bulgaria’s nearly 7 million people are fully vaccinated, the lowest level in the EU, and it has the bloc’s highest pro rata death rate.  In Romania the figure is only 32 percent.

Netherlands is another hitting new daily highs in cases and they are instituting a 3-week partial lockdown, Western Europe’s first since the summer, ordering bars and restaurants to close early and sporting events to be held without audiences.

Lastly, go on worldometers and look at Russia’s chart.  It’s sickening.  Vladimir Putin needs a distraction, and that doesn’t bode well for Ukraine, or Poland, as noted further below.

Covid-19 death tolls, as of tonight….

World…5,103,690
USA…782,929
Brazil…610,935
India…462,893
Mexico…290,630
Russia…252,926
Peru…200,554
Indonesia…143,628
UK…142,678
Italy…132,686
Iran…127,918
Colombia…127,721
France…118,121
Argentina…116,222
Germany…98,050
South Africa…89,469
Spain…87,673
Poland…78,555
Ukraine…75,607
Turkey…73,127
Romania…52,513
Philippines…45,035
Chile…37,936
Ecuador…32,989
Hungary…31,867
Czechia…31,355
Malaysia…29,576
Canada…29,286
Pakistan…28,584
Bangladesh…27,912
Belgium…26,261
Bulgaria…26,126
Tunisia…25,306
Iraq…23,471
Vietnam…22,930

[Source: worldometers.info]

U.S. daily death tolls…Sun. 463; Mon. 537; Tues. 1,341; Wed. 1,493; Thurs. 539*; Fri. 983.

*#s held down by Veterans Day and lack of reporting from some states.

Covid Bytes

--So with growing infections in parts of Europe, the U.S. lifted restrictions Monday on travel from a long list of countries including Mexico, Canada and most of Europe.

The U.S. is accepting fully vaccinated travelers at airports and land borders, doing away with a Covid-19 restriction that dates back to the Trump administration.  Those coming from Europe also must have proof of a recent negative Covid test, while those coming by land from Mexico and Canada will require proof of vaccination but no test.

--At a time when high-profile Republican governors like Greg Abbott of Texas and Ron DeSantis of Florida vehemently oppose vaccine and mask mandates, a clear majority of Americans continue to favor them in schools.

A new Monmouth University poll shows 61% of the public supports mask requirements in schools for students, teachers and staff.  The number has decreased from 66% in September but still flies in the face of the heated protests against masks in some parts of the country.

The survey, conducted Nov. 4-8, also found support for vaccination of those in schools holding steady, with mandates for teachers and staff at 59% - down just one point from September – and requiring kids 12 and older to get the shots up to 53%, from 51% in September.

Biden’s general approval ratings are plummeting, but 53% of respondents still approve of how he is handling the pandemic.  Forty-one percent say he’s doing a poor job.

--Speaking of Gov. Abbott’s executive order that bans schools from imposing mask mandates, a federal judge ruled Wednesday it cannot be enforced because it violates federal law by putting students with disabilities at greater risk.

--But a U.S. appeals court today affirmed its decision to put on hold an order by President Biden for companies with 100 workers or more to require Covid-19 vaccines, rejecting a challenge by his administration.

The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans (known as “The Jello Shot Boys”) upheld the ruling despite the administration’s saying on Monday that halting implementation of the rule could lead to the deaths of dozens or even hundreds of workers.

--A North Dakota lawmaker who organized a rally against mandatory Covid-19 vaccinations was not able to attend his event because he contracted Covid.

The rally on the steps of the state’s capital building went on as planned, only without Rep. Jeff Hoverson, because he was sick in bed.

“Covid is real and like a really bad flu,” he wrote in a Facebook post on the day before the rally.

--President Biden today tapped former FDA commissioner Robert Califf to again lead the regulatory agency.

Califf’s nomination comes after months of concern that the agency near the center of the government’s Covid-19 response has lacked a permanent leader.

Califf served as FDA commissioner for the last 11 months of the Obama administration.  Before that he was the agency’s No. 2 official after more than 35 years as a researcher at Duke University.

Foreign Affairs

Iraq: Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi survived an assassination attempt with armed drones that targeted his residence early Sunday and officials said he was unharmed.  Seven of Kadhimi’s security guards were injured in the attack, which occurred in Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone area.  Kadhimi later addressed the nation on television after tweeting: “I am fine and among my people.  Thank God.” He called for calm and restraint, “for the sake of Iraq.”

Appearing on Iraqi television, he looked calm and composed.  “Cowardly rocket and drone attacks don’t build homelands and don’t build a future,” he said.

The attack was a major escalation amid tensions sparked by the refusal of Iran-backed militias to accept last month’s parliamentary election results, which international monitoring groups said was a well-run vote.

Afghanistan: The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan has left a majority of veterans with a lingering sense that America did not leave that war with honor, according to a new poll.

“Veterans are feeling an intense array of emotions regarding the end of the war, including humiliation, betrayal, anger, disappointment, and sadness,” and 70 percent of those polled do not feel like the U.S. departed Afghanistan with honor, the non-profit research group More in Common U.S. reported Wednesday.

Among Americans in general, 57 percent reported they did not feel the United States left Afghanistan with honor, the survey found.

More in Common U.S. had already been looking into how veterans and non-veterans relate to each other when the Taliban began their swift final push across Afghanistan last summer.

“We started to reach out to our partners in the veteran space to say, ‘We think this is a really important moment to try and understand how our veterans process this, how the average American processes this,’ said Dan Vallone, executive director of More in Common U.S. and a former Army captain who served in Afghanistan in 2010.  “Is it going to further divide the country, or is it an opportunity to come together?”

YouGov conducted the poll for the group.

China: On Thursday, China’s ruling Communist Party rewrote the history of the nation for just the third time…and a third leader…President Xi Jinping.

Xi has now been formally elevated to the status of Mao Zedong and economic reformer Deng Xiaoping.

Xi’s version of Chinese history is simple: The party is great, glorious and always right.  As long as people follow the party, China will rise to inevitable greatness.  Only one leader, Xi, will make that greatness a reality.

As in next spring he’ll receive an unprecedented third term.

The resolution “on major achievements and historical experiences in the party’s hundred years of struggle” was passed in Beijing yesterday by the CCP’s Central Committee.

The communique says the Communist Party has “walked through 100 years of glorious history” and “written the most magnificent epic in the Chinese nation’s thousands of years of history.”  But the declaration is also about the future: It lays the groundwork for Xi to serve a third term and underlines his political supremacy.

“The party’s establishment of Comrade Xi Jinping’s position as the core of the entire party and party center reflects the common wishes of the entire party, military, state and peoples of all ethnicities,” the communique says. [Ed. the Uighurs too?] “It has decisive meaning for the development of party and state affairs in the new era and the historical progress of the Chinese nation’s great rejuvenation.”

The resolutions according the other two, Mao and Deng, such special treatment, also consolidated the power of a single man who then steered the country through transformational decades.  Despite a slowing economy and growing tension with the United States, the resolution is a statement of confidence and party unity ahead of the 20th Party Congress next year, when Xi will get his third term.

In a section of the resolution dealing with the past, it makes no mention of the famine caused by the Great Leap Forward collectivization campaign or the brutalities of the Cultural Revolution.

As in it is a striking divergence form Deng’s 1981 resolution, which walked a fine line between affirming the ultimate correctness of Communist Party leadership and rejecting the Mao-era mistakes that ravaged the country.

A profile of Xi published by the official Xinhua News Agency this week praised him as “a man of determination and action, a man of profound thoughts and feelings, a man who inherited a legacy but dares to innovate, and a man who has forward-looking vision and is committed to working tirelessly.”  [Alice Su / Los Angeles Times]

But don’t ask him to travel during a pandemic.

So with the above in mind, Presidents Xi and Biden are planning to hold a virtual summit on Monday, though it’s being called a “meeting” because it is not over multiple days.

The two have pledged to work together on climate change, as noted above, but differences remain over Taiwan and other fronts.

The U.S. wants to work with Beijing on climate, trade and nuclear nonproliferation – as well as Taiwan and cybersecurity, but with the exception of climate and trade, you can forget the other topics in terms of Chinese cooperation.

Separately, China’s population could be shrinking, with data so far this year showing a continued drop in the number of births, an independent Chinese demographer has predicted.

He Yafu wrote on his personal social media account Thursday that there will be between 9.5 million to 10.5 million newborn babies this year, with an average of about 10 million deaths a year recently, he wrote.

China’s government has effectively done away with restrictions on the number of children a couple can have and has promised to boost support for families, including making it cheaper to raise a child, but the National Health Commission admitted in July that the number of newborns may decline this year from 12 million in 2020.

In a forum hosted by the New York Times on Wednesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the United States and its allies would “take action” if China used force to alter the status quo over Taiwan.

But Blinken did not say what sort of action he was referring to.

“There are many countries, both in the region and beyond, that would see any unilateral action to use force to disrupt the status quo as a significant threat to peace and security, and they too would take action in the event that happens.”

Russia/Belarus/Ukraine: At least 2,000 migrants are stuck at the Belarus-Poland border in freezing conditions, without food, with some trying to force their way through the barbed-wire border fence, while Polish guards fend them off with tear gas.

Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of being behind the migrant crisis.

Russia then deployed strategic bombers to Belarus’ airspace on Wednesday.  Poland now has 15,000 troops at the border.

Meanwhile, the United States is raising the alarm with European Union allies that Russia may be weighing a potential invasion of Ukraine amid the tensions over migrants and energy supplies.

Washington has been closely monitoring a buildup of Russian forces near the Ukrainian border.

Russian says military deployments on its territory are an internal matter and it denies any aggressive intentions, while accusing the U.S. of provocation by sailing warships in the Black Sea close to its territory this week.

Editorial / Washington Post

“The appearance of an estimated 2,000 or more migrants on the Belarus side of its border with Poland and Lithuania in recent days, huddled in the freezing forests without food, is a sign of reckless depravity. They were brought there in a choreographed and cynical attempt to provoke a crisis by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko.  The European Union is right to stand firm against this dangerous behavior.

“The migrants, who are mostly from the Middle East, were lured into thinking Belarus would provide a gateway to Europe.  They have been given Belarusian visas and flown on Belarus’ state-owned airline to Minsk. They have been bused to the Belarusian border, along with their children and belongings, and in many cases pushed to cross it by Belarusian security forces, even though Poland and Lithuania have stepped up patrols and built fencing to stop the tide.  A European Commission spokesperson said, accurately: ‘This is part of the inhuman and really gangster-style approach of the Lukashenko regime that he is lying to people, he is misusing people….and bringing them to Belarus under the false promise of having easy entry into the E.U.’

“The use of migrants in this way has been ongoing for months but dramatically escalated in recent days.  The gambit is right out of the playbook of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has approved if not instigated it.  Mr. Lukashenko may be hoping to create such a nasty fuss that European countries would beg or pay him to stop the flow of migrants – remembering the flood from Syria a few years ago – and hold off on further sanctions.

“Fortunately, the European Union shows no sign of rewarding this cruel ploy.  Mr. Lukashenko is engaging in state-sponsored human trafficking.  With desperate migrants attempting daily to breach the border – using shovels and logs against the barbed-wire fences – the confrontation could easily escalate to violence.  It is already a serious humanitarian predicament.  Many migrants in the current group are Iraqi Kurds….

“The European Union has imposed four rounds of sanctions on Mr. Lukashenko and his cronies for their actions to steal the 2020 election; a fifth round being discussed would target officials and entities who aid and abet the migrant crisis.  Airlines also are being warned that if they facilitate human trafficking, they could be barred from European airspace.

“The sanctions should come hard and swift.  The United States ought to press Iraq and other nations in the Middle East to cut off flights to Minsk.  Poland and Lithuania should allow humanitarian relief as needed for the unfortunate victims huddled along the border fence, but these countries must remain steadfast against Mr. Lukashenko’s thuggery.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Russia’s Vladimir Putin is causing trouble in Europe again, first by massing troops on the border with Ukraine and now with a refugee crisis and energy threats through his ally in Belarus.  Western Europe is upset but has itself to blame for being so vulnerable….

“Now Mr. Lukashenko is playing the energy supply card. ‘We are heating Europe, they are still threatening us that they will close the border.  And if we shut off natural gas there?’ Mr. Lukashenko said Thursday, according to Reuters.  ‘I would recommend that the Polish leadership, Lithuanians and other headless people think before speaking.’

“This has the look of a Putin-inspired hybrid political campaign.  The intention is to destabilize Poland and its neighbors while generating division within the EU.  So far the strategy has largely backfired.  Warsaw’s spat with Brussels over rule-of-law issues is now on the back burner, and Brussels rightly has laid blame for the humanitarian crisis on Belarus…

“Russia is controlling the marionette here.  Mr. Lukashenko once played Russia and the West off each other, but since the popular protests against him he has thrown in completely with Moscow.  Mr. Putin is taking advantage, flying Russian strategic bombers over Belarusian airspace this week.  The Kremlin has called on Europe to pay Minsk to halt the migrants while blaming Western intervention in the Middle East for the chaos.  This trolling is Mr. Putin’s specialty: Create or encourage a crisis, blame the victim, and demand concessions to resolve the issue.

“The larger strategic context is that Mr. Putin and his crony believe they can act with relative impunity because Europe is desperate for Russian gas amid an energy crunch.  European leaders – especially lame duck German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron – cling to the illusion that talking to Russia will improve ties.  Mr. Putin told Ms. Merkel in a phone call this week that Europe would have to negotiate directly with Minsk – giving a pariah state the legitimacy it craves.

“The best near-term approach is to impose harsher sanctions on items like potash exports and to pressure Middle Eastern countries to halt flights into Minsk.  In the long run, Europe will have to lessen its dependence on Russian energy.  Killing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline would be an important start, if anyone has the nerve.”

Ethiopia: The situation here grows worse as at least 16 United Nations staff and dependents have been detained in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa, amid reports of widespread arrests of ethnic Tigrayans.

The year-long conflict in northern Ethiopia between the government and Tigrayan forces loyal to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front has intensified, with Tigrayan forces and their allies threatening to march on the capital.

Both the United States and Britain have advised their citizens to leave the country while commercial flights are still available.

Nicaragua: President Daniel Ortega won a fourth consecutive term overwhelmingly in weekend elections, that both the opposition and the U.S. labeled a sham, Ortega completing his transformation from a 21st century version of the dynastic dictator he helped to overthrow over 40 years ago.

Ortega supposedly won 75% of the vote, according to Nicaragua’s electoral authority.  He ran with his wife, Vice President Rosario Murillo, as seven would-be candidates were imprisoned beforehand, along with 32 other leading businessmen, journalists, political foes, student and peasant leaders, decapitating all opposition.

In a statement issued before the results were announced, President Biden ripped into Ortega, saying that Ortega and Murillo were “no different from the Somoza family” and had orchestrated a “pantomime election that was neither free nor fair, and most certainly not democratic.”

Random Musings

--Presidential approval ratings….

Gallup: Another week or so before the next update; the last one at 42% approving of President Biden’s job performance, 52% disapproving; only 34% of independents approving (Oct. 1-19).

Rasmussen: 42% approve, 57% disapprove of Biden’s performance (Nov. 12)

A new national CNN/SSRS Poll gave Biden a 48% approval rating, 52% disapproving.

More than a third of Americans called the economy the most pressing problem facing the country (36%).  Among the group that sees it that way, 72% say Biden hasn’t been attentive to the right issues.

Registered voters do give Biden’s party a narrow edge in a generic congressional matchup, with 49% saying they would back the Democrat in their district in next year’s midterms and 44% the Republican, which was virtually the same breakdown as the Democratic advantage in CNN polling in November 2009 (49-43 Democrats).

About half (52% of registered voters) say their 2022 vote will not be about Biden, but those who do feel they are using their vote to say something about the President are more negative (26% sending a message to oppose Biden) than positive (19% sending a message to support him).

About two-thirds of Americans say they are confident that next year’s congressional elections will be conducted fairly (65%), which is pathetic.  The effects of repeated lies about the 2020 election’s validity are clear: Republicans express significantly less confidence than Democrats in the fairness of the coming contests.  Overall, just 40% of Republicans say they are confident the elections will be carried out fairly, compared with 84% of Democrats.  Among independents, 66% are confident that the elections will be fair.

A USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll has Biden’s approval rating at a new low of 38%, with 59% disapproving.

Nearly half of those surveyed, 46%, say Biden has done a worse job as president than they expected, including 16% of those who voted for him.  Independents, by 7-1 (44%-6%) say he’s done worse, not better, than they expected.

Nearly two-thirds of Americans, 64%, say they don’t want Biden to run for a second term in 2020 (don’t worry, he won’t), including 28% of Democrats.  Opposition to Trump running for another term in 2024 stands at 58%, including 24% of Republicans.

Vice President Kamala Harris’ approval rating is 28% - even worse than Biden’s.  51% disapprove.

And this is interesting.  As opposed to the CNN poll, if the election were held today, those surveyed say they would vote for their Republican congressional candidate over the Democratic one by 46%-38%.

Two-thirds of Americans (66%) say the country has gotten on the wrong track.

--Former President Trump failed to block the release of documents sought by a U.S. House panel investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.

U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan in Washington denied Trump’s request for an injunction on Tuesday, saying “public interest lies in permitting – not enjoining – the combined will of the legislative and executive branches to study the events that led to and occurred on Jan. 6.”

Trump immediately filed notice that he’ll appeal the ruling, and on Thursday, he asked an appeals court to stop release.

Trump had asked the court in October to stop the National Archives from releasing the documents to Congress, invoking executive privilege, which allows the president to keep certain records confidential.  Typically executive privilege is reserved for the current occupant of the White House, but in this case President Joe Biden has waved it.  Trump’s lawyers argued that a former president should maintain some ability to invoke it.

Chutkan rejected Trump’s argument that he’s entitled to keep the records secret from Congress.  “The privilege exists to protect the executive branch, not an individual,” she wrote.  “The incumbent President – not a former President – is best positioned to evaluate the long-term interests of the executive branch.”

“Presidents are not kings,” she continued, “and plaintiff is not president.”

The records that Trump is trying to keep secret from the committee include daily presidential diaries, schedules, appointments showing White House visitors, call logs and drafts of speeches or correspondence related to the insurrection.

The House committee – comprised of seven Democrats and two Republicans (Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger) – in addition to seeking records from the White House, has subpoenaed documents and testimony from former Trump advisers, including Steve Bannon and former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows.

Then on Monday, six more Trump advisers were subpoenaed, including Trump lawyer John Eastman, who issued a six-point plan to then-Vice President Pence on overturning certified election results, Michael Flynn, the loathsome Jason Miller, Bill Stepien, and Bernard Kerik.

Tuesday, others were then issued subpoenas to testify before the committee, including senior adviser Stephen Miller (one of the true dirtballs on the planet), and Kayleigh McEnany.

Attorney General Merrick Garland has declined to say where the case stood.

“This is a criminal matter, an ongoing examination of the referral,” Garland told USA TODAY.  “As you know, the Justice Department doesn’t comment on those.  We evaluate these in the normal ways we do – the facts and the law, and applying the principles of prosecution.”

But then Thursday, an appeals court temporarily denied the bid by investigators to access Trump’s White House records.

The U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington placed a temporary hold on the lower court’s order to hand over the trove by Friday.

The appeals court said it will schedule a hearing for November 30.  The case will be heard by three judges who were selected at random, all three appointed by Democratic presidents.

Assuming they then go along with the lower court, the legal battle will wind up at the Supreme Court.

--But wait…there’s more!  Much more!

It was revealed today that in a taped interview with Jonathan Karl of ABC News as part of Karl’s upcoming book, “Betrayal,” out on Tuesday, Trump defended, extensively, supporters who threatened to “hang” Mike Pence.

At no time in U.S. history has a former president openly said it was OK to threaten the life of his own vice president.

To wit:

Jonathan Karl: “Were you worried about (Pence) during that siege?  Were you worried about his safety?”

Trump: “No, I thought he was well-protected, and I had heard that he was in good shape.  No.  Because I had heard he was in very good shape.  But, but, no, I think – “

Karl: “Because you heard those chants – that was terrible.  I mean – “

Trump: “He could have – well, the people were very angry.”

Karl: “They were saying ‘hang Mike Pence.’”

Trump: “Because it’s common sense, Jon.  It’s common sense that you’re supposed to protect.  How can you – if you know a vote is fraudulent, right? – how can you pass on a fraudulent vote to Congress?  How can you do that?  And I’m telling you: 50/50, it’s right down the middle for the top constitutional scholars when I speak to them. Anybody I spoke to – almost all of them at least pretty much agree, and some very much agree with me – because he’s passing on a vote that he knows is fraudulent.  How can you pass a vote that you know is fraudulent?”

The former president goes on and on….

Meanwhile, Steve Bannon was indicted Friday on two counts of contempt of Congress after he defied a congressional subpoena from the House committee investigating the insurrection.

The indictment comes as a second witness, former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, defied a similar subpoena from the committee on Friday.  The chairman of the panel, Mississippi Rep. Bennie Thompson, said he will be recommending contempt charges against Meadows next week.

In August of last year, Bannon was pulled from a luxury yacht and arrested on allegations that he and three associates ripped off donors trying to fund a southern border wall.  Trump later pardoned Bannon in the final hours of his presidency.

If you feel dirty about now, go ahead and wash your hands, as I’m doing….

--According to a Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll of registered voters, 55% of respondents thought Trump should testify before the House committee investigating Jan. 6, compared with 38% who said he shouldn’t.

Sixty-two percent believed members of the Trump administration should testify, compared with 30% who said they should not.

Republicans opposed Trump testifying, 61%-31%.  Democrats favored Trump’s testimony 81%-14%.

Blacks said he should testify by a 74%-20% margin.  Whites favored his testimony only 51%-42%.

--Addressing some of the Republican Party’s most influential donors and bundlers Saturday in Las Vegas, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie said the only way for the party to continue building on the success of the vote Nov. 2 is to move beyond Donald Trump’s fixation with the 2020 election results – while showing voters they will listen and fight for them with a message “that doesn’t hurt their ears.”

While other potential candidates for 2024 have tip-toed around the former president, Christie was the only one to argue that the Republican gains the other day – namely winning Virginia’s gubernatorial race and keeping New Jersey’s much closer than expected – demonstrated that the party must chart a new path forward that advances beyond the grievance politics that have defined the Trump era.  If they do not, he warned, they will jeopardize the gains they made last week among women and suburban voters who fled the party during Trump’s presidency.

“We can no longer talk about the past and the past elections – no matter where you stand on that issue, no matter where you stand, it is over,” Christie said.  “Every minute that we spend talking about 2020 – while we’re wasting time doing that, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer are laying ruin to this country.  We better focus on that and take our eyes off the rearview mirror and start looking through the windshield again.”

In a subsequent interview with CNN, Christie said that with the 2022 elections looming, it is time for Trump to decide whether he wants to be “a leader for tomorrow or a figure of yesterday.”  He added that he believes Trump can be a “very positive force for Republican candidates” in 2022 if he will “begin talking about the future and tell the truth about the election and move on.”  But he acknowledged that he had “not a clue” about whether Trump would heed that advice.

Christie said he will wait to make his own decision about 2024 after the 2022 midterms.  But unlike potential contenders like former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who have said they will not run if Trump does, Christie said he would not stand aside if Trump vies for a second term.

“Absolutely not.  My decision will never be based on anybody’s else’s candidacy,” Christie told CNN. “It will be based on whether I believe I have the talent, the skill and the ability to be able to win.  And anybody who says that they’ll step aside for anybody else, I’d say to you, doesn’t belong being president. If you don’t believe in yourself enough to stand up to anyone, then you can’t possibly stand up for everyone.”

--I was proud to see New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli do the honorable thing and concede defeat today to incumbent Democrat Phil Murphy.

It was understandable Ciattarelli waited until more of the absentee ballots were counted but the handwriting was on the wall. 

Ciattarelli trails by 74,000, Murphy winning 51-48 percent.  He said he called the governor to congratulate him and wished him well in serving the people of New Jersey.

“I hate to lose,” he said, “but I am also someone who believes strongly in our republic and in our democratic process. Enough votes have been counted and there does not appear to be a path to victory or a basis for a recount.  Nor do we know of any systemic or widespread fraud.  So no, I see no proof that this election was stolen.”

Good for you, Jack.  This is the man I voted for, and you have preserved your future opportunities for elected office.

--With the prosecution having rested its case on Tuesday, teenager Kyle Rittenhouse testified in his own defense on Wednesday in his Wisconsin trial, saying one of the two men he is charged with murdering threatened to kill him while also telling jurors he was not looking for trouble.  He also sobbed in a way I have never seen before at one point, yet after a quick break, miraculously regained his composure the rest of the way.

Rittenhouse methodically described the events of the night of the killings, testifying that Joseph Rosenbaum threatened twice to kill him.  Rittenhouse said Rosenbaum, speaking to his group, said “I’m going to cut your fucking hearts out.”

Rittenhouse answered questions from his attorney, Mark Richards.  When Richards asked if he had come to Kenosha on that night looking for trouble, Rittenhouse said he had not.  He said he was asked to help guard a used car dealership along with other armed men.  He said his objective that night was to provide medical aid to anyone hurt, which is why he offered his bullet-proof vest to another person in his group.

During five days of testimony, prosecutors have tried to paint Rittenhouse as a vigilante killer who used deadly force without justification.

It’s come down to this.  Supporters of the angelic one say he was justified in defending himself, while critics say he was indeed a vigilante who inserted himself into a violent situation while illegally possessing a firearm.

The kid was living out a fantasy, talking on the stand of providing medical aid (while lying about his EMT status) and protection.  His mother, let alone Kyle, has now become a tool of Fox News.

Carli Pierson / USA TODAY

“Kyle Rittenhouse’s crocodile tears broke the internet Wednesday.

“In a nauseatingly melodramatic performance he choked back snot as he appeared to sob about how he feared for his life the day he shot and killed two people at a Black Lives Matter demonstration in Kenosha, Wisconsin.

“Defense attorney Mark Richards tried to paint Rittenhouse as a misunderstood honorable, patriotic Boy Scout who simply liked to shoot guns.

“Rittenhouse is anything but.

“ ‘I’m sorry, I don’t know much about ammo,’ Rittenhouse said, though he brought an AR-15 rifle and shot and killed two people.  During Wednesday’s testimony, Rittenhouse acknowledged he had not lent body armor to a friend, but also regularly drove around with body armor in the trunk of his vehicle.

“In a dramatic turn, Prosecutor Thomas Binger was scolded by Judge Bruce Schroeder after trying to impeach Rittenhouse’s contradictory testimony about what led to the events on the day of the killings.

“Regardless of how Rittenhouse tries to twist his story – or twist his sad face into tears – his innocent kid act shouldn’t fool anyone.  The facts speak for themselves.

“On Aug. 25, 2020, Rittenhouse drove from his home state of Illinois to a Black Lives Matter protest in Wisconsin.  Hundreds of people had taken to the streets to protest the police shooting of a 29-year old Black man, Jacob Blake, who was paralyzed from the waist down. Rittenhouse, then 17, fatally shot Joseph Bosenbaum, 36, and Anthony Huber, 26, and wounded Gaige Grosskreutz, 27.

“This case has caught the world’s attention, and rightfully so.  The fact that Rittenhouse shot and killed two people and lived to see trial is a testament to the racial violence and inequality that people in Kenosha were protesting the day this emboldened vigilante decided to come and play with real people’s lives.

“Rittenhouse faces homicide and reckless endangerment charges and has pleaded not guilty, saying he acted in self defense.  He could get life in prison if convicted, and that’s what he deserves.  His crocodile tears are fooling no one.”

Kenosha County Circuit Judge Bruce Schroeder has drawn attention, criticism and accusations of bias on behalf of the defense.  Frankly, he’s a jerk.

The case goes to the jury probably Monday, after closing arguments.  Schroeder is weighing lesser charges for the jury to consider, which would make it easier to actually convict the kid.

--Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Eric Adams won the race for New York mayor on a vow to reduce crime and homelessness, and he’s already facing a threat of ‘riots,’ ‘fire’ and worse if he follow through.

“That’s what happened Wednesday after the Mayor-elect hosted members of a local Black Lives Matter chapter to hear out their agenda. The harangue started almost immediately.  ‘Everybody talks about ‘good cops,’’ said group co-founder Hawk Newsome.  ‘We don’t believe in good cops.’  Mr. Adams spent 22 years as a cop before entering politics.

“Afterward the activists tore into Mr. Adams’ plans to increase street policing.  ‘There will be riots, there will be fire and there will be bloodshed,’ Mr. Newsome told the New York Daily News, referring to Mr. Adams’ proposal to reinstate plainclothes police units.  Mr. Newsome’s sister Chivona added that ‘We will give him hell and make it a nightmare.’

“This is no empty threat.  After an officer killed George Floyd in Minneapolis last year, rioters in New York damaged or looted about 450 businesses in a 12-day period, according to a New York Post tally.  Many protestors marched under the Black Lives Matter banner.

“Violent crime spiked in New York and other cities after the protest wave.  Yet under progressive pressure, Mayor Bill de Blasio and police commissioner Dermot Shea disbanded the NYPD’s plainclothes units. These officers had seized hundreds of illegal guns each year in dangerous neighborhoods.

“Mr. Adams was elected to clean up the mess.  ‘When I ran to become the mayor of the City of New York, I said I was going to reinstitute an antigun unit in plainclothes,’ Mr. Adams said Thursday.  ‘Voters voted on that.’  He vowed to move forward with the plan.

“The clash with Black Lives Matter is the first of many tests he’ll face in addressing crime.  Voters largely rejected the antipolice policies that Democrats advocated after the Floyd killing.  But left-wing activists continue to defend policies that weaken criminal enforcement, such as New York’s 2019 state law eliminating cash bail for many offenses.

“Mr. Adams brushed off his critics’ riot threat as ‘silly,’ and he’ll need all of that conviction to restore order to New York streets.”

--Regarding the stampede last weekend in Houston during rapper Travis Scott’s Astroworld music festival appearance that killed nine people and injured dozens, Harris County Judge Lina Hildago summed it up.

“Perhaps the (pre-concert) plans were inadequate.  Perhaps the plans were good but they weren’t followed. The families of those who died, everybody affected, deserves answers.”

Scott has a reputation for inciting violence at his concerts, saying in the past that it’s not a moshpit unless someone is hurt.

His girlfriend, Kylie Jenner, for good reason is laying low.  Why it’s hurting her brand!  [And last I saw, she and Scott are expecting their second child.]

--Finally, yesterday in New Jersey we heard on the local news of a small plane crash with victims about 30 miles from here, and then this morning the two were identified…Thomas Fischer and Glen de Vries.

It didn’t register when I first saw this that Mr. de Vries was the same man who traveled along with William Shatner in Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin flight in October.

It’s just not fair.

Fischer was the owner and chief flight instructor of Fischer Aviation at Essex County Airport in Caldwell, NJ, where de Vries had started as a student in 2016.

De Vries was co-founder of Medidata, a subsidiary of Dassault Systemes. 

Our thoughts and prayers go out to his family and friends.

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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.  We thank you all for your service.

God bless America.

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Gold $1867
Oil $80.69

Returns for the week 11/8-11/12

Dow Jones  -0.6%  [36100]
S&P 500  -0.3%  [4682]
S&P MidCap  -0.1%
Russell 2000  -1.0%
Nasdaq  -0.7%  [15860]

Returns for the period 1/1/21-11/12/21

Dow Jones  +18.0%
S&P 500  +24.7%
S&P MidCap  +25.8%
Russell 2000  +22.1%
Nasdaq  +23.1%

Bulls 54.0
Bears 24.1…no update this week.

Hang in there.  Pet a dog.

Brian Trumbore

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