Week in Review

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Week in Review

12/11/2021

For the week 12/6-12/10

[Posted 9:00 PM ET, Friday]

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Special thanks to Mark R. for his longtime support.

Edition 1,182

I ended up watching the entire funeral service for Bob Dole today and in doing so, a few items ended up on the cutting room floor.

It was a fitting tribute to a great American.  Much more on Dole down below.

As for the agonizing pandemic, approaching a staggering two years in the Western World, Omicron is in at least 57 countries thus far.  But in the United States, only 60% are vaccinated, which is pathetic when measured against the levels of other developing countries.  Heck, 80% in Cambodia are fully vaccinated.

Dr. Anthony Fauci said on Tuesday that preliminary evidence indicates that the Omicron variant has a higher degree of transmissibility but is less severe.  Experts in South Africa are echoing the sentiments, though they say the variant is better at evading virus-fighting antibodies, as produced by the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, for example.

And while early reports show no spike in hospitalizations or deaths as a result of Omicron, these categories always lag infections, though there is cause for some optimism thus far.

What we do know, as I spell out below, is everyone needs to get a booster shot as soon as they are eligible.

Meanwhile, we have the gathering gloom.

Gerald F. Seib / Wall Street Journal

“In Washington, President Biden this week convenes a summit of the world’s democracies.  But the real drama for the democratic world is unfolding elsewhere around the globe.

“Three potential crises are proceeding in tandem: a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, continuing Chinese pressure on Taiwan and the potential collapse of Iran nuclear talks.

“Any one of these standoffs has the potential to shake the world order and produce wider conflict. Taken together, they signal that the U.S. and its allies are at a dangerous moment – perhaps more dangerous than many Americans realize. The challenge for President Biden and the democratic leaders he’ll be consulting with this week is to find a way to show firmness on each front without provoking a crisis….

“Three decades ago, after the Berlin Wall fell and communism collapsed in the Soviet Union, the question of which model was prevailing wouldn’t even have seemed relevant. Democracy’s rise seemed inevitable.

“In the years since, though, the authoritarian model has become resurgent. China openly presents its economic power as a sign that the ruthless efficiency of autocracy is superior to the messiness of democracy.

“Democracies haven’t done themselves any favors in this competition.  Political divisions, in the U.S. and elsewhere, have become almost paralyzing.  The U.S. has struggled to make the kinds of investments in infrastructure and its own people that would ensure a free-market system will prevail. Their own undemocratic impulses have risen to the surface, sometimes violently, and never more so than in the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol by Trump supporters intent on stopping the transfer of power to President Biden.”

Seib talks about America’s leaders also giving ample reasons to doubt America’s resolve.

“President Barack Obama once declared Syria’s use of chemical weapons against its own people would represent a red line that would bring U.S. action, and then didn’t respond when the red line was crossed.  President Donald Trump declared he wanted out of both Iraq and Afghanistan, and essentially abandoned America’s Kurdish allies when he pulled troops out of Syria.  President Biden oversaw an ugly and tragic withdrawal from Afghanistan that seemed to merely confirm America’s desire to turn away from a country where it had invested two decades of blood and money.

“Meantime, the U.S. did little to dissuade China from imposing its will on Hong Kong, and was either unwilling or unable to stop the outright Russian takeover of Crimea from Ukraine.

“It’s impossible to know whether that recent record has emboldened Russia, China and Iran into their current confrontational positions.  In any case, the challenges are now under way, and the stakes are high.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“The American press has forgotten about Afghanistan, but the rest of the world hasn’t. Direct cause and effect are hard to know, but it seems increasingly likely that Mr. Biden’s catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan has raised doubts among adversaries about U.S. commitments and the President’s judgment. They aim to take advantage.

“The world is entering a dangerous period.  The hard men in Moscow, Tehran and Beijing are going to test Mr. Biden to expand their power and spheres of influence, and it isn’t at all clear if or how Mr. Biden will respond.”

Walter Russell Mead / Wall Street Journal

“President Biden, scheduled to have a video call with the Russian leader as this column goes to press, seems committed to a so-called peaceful-measures-only approach.  Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned of ‘high-impact sanctions,’ and other administration officials have spoken of increased military aid to Ukraine. This sounds robust, but one of Mr. Putin’s favorite diplomatic strategies is to tempt American officials into pompous declarations and then humiliate them by exposing the hollow nature of their pretentious rhetoric.  He ran this play repeatedly against the Obama administration, most spectacularly when President Obama told the United Nations General Assembly that Bashar al-Assad must leave power in Syria and Mr. Putin rallied to Mr. Assad’s defense, significantly undermining American power and prestige.  He would like nothing better than to fillet Team Biden with the same knife.”

President Biden made a huge mistake on Wednesday when he said the use of U.S. ground troops in Ukraine was “off the table.”  You just don’t take anything off the table.  Yes, the U.S. is, in all likelihood, never putting ground troops in non-NATO Ukraine unless it was part of a massive NATO effort to eject the Russians, which would happen if Putin also lashed out against a fellow NATO ally.

But why say it?

Bottom line, the invasion is coming.  Vlad the Impaler will claim Russia was provoked.  Light a candle for Ukraine.

Biden Agenda

--The Senate on Thursday cleared away the last major hurdle to raising the debt ceiling, approving legislation that would all but guarantee that Congress will move quickly in the coming days to avoid a first-ever federal default.

The breakthrough came after 14 Republicans joined every Democrat to effectively end their party’s monthslong blockade of debt-limit legislation, allowing the bill to advance in the 50-50 Senate.

In the end, the way is paved for a separate vote to raise the debt limit by as much as $2.5 trillion early next week.

--A Wall Street Journal poll provided a bit of potential good news for Biden.  Among all registered voters surveyed, 45% said they supported and an equal 45% opposed the Build Back Better bill.   Separately, 48% of voters said they supported the bipartisan infrastructure bill that the president recently signed into law, with 43% opposing it.

In a hypothetical 2024 rematch, Biden draws 46% to Donald Trump’s 45%.

But there is simply no way Biden is running.  Period.

--Speaking of Build Back Better, the Christmas deadline Biden et al are racing to meet is going to extend into January, for sure, because West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin is not going to vote for the roughly $2 trillion social-policy and climate package in anywhere near its current form.

Manchin continued to express, multiple times this week, his concern about the bill’s impact on inflation and the deficit.

“The unknown we’re facing today is much greater than the need that people believe in this aspirational bill that we’re looking at,” Manchin said in remarks during a Wall Street Journal CEO summit.  “We’ve gotta make sure we get this right.  We just can’t continue to flood the market, as we’ve done.”

Manchin will no doubt talk about today’s latest budget deficit update from the Treasury Department in upcoming floor debates.  The November deficit was $191.34 billion, with October’s at $165.06 billion.

So for the first two months of the fiscal year, we have a budget gap of $356.39 billion, which is smaller than the $429.38 billion in the same period a year ago, but still exceedingly high.

Revenues aren’t the issue. They were up 28% last month from a year ago.  Spending is.

--White House press secretary Jen Psaki really stepped in it on Monday.

NPR’s Mara Liasson pressed Psaki on the continued hurdles Americans face in getting rapid, at-home coronavirus tests. The administration recently announced people with private health insurance would be reimbursed for the tests, which often cost between $20 and $30 for a pair.

“That’s kind of complicated, though,” Liasson noted.  “Why not just make them free and give them out to – and have them available everywhere?”

Psaki shot back sarcastically: “Should we just send one to every American?”

I wrote last week, Yes!!!

After Liasson suggested that maybe this was actually a good idea, Psaki responded, “Then what happens if you – if every American has one test?  How much does that cost, and then what happens after that?”

Incredibly stupid, insensitive answer.

As I told you, if you don’t have insurance, the administration will send out a rapid test.  If you do have insurance, you have to freakin’ submit the receipt to your insurance company!!!  How f’n stupid is that at a time you are trying to not only fend off Delta and Omicron, you want to keep the economy operating at some semblance of normalcy and testing (and boosters) is a way to keep things no worse than they are now.

So Psaki gets my irregular “Jerk of the Week” award.

--The Washington Post had a scathing piece on Kamala Harris this week, where she is described as a “bully” and the “common denominator” behind a recent exodus of high-level staffers.

Harris’ allegedly “soul-destroying” management style was revealed by staffers to the Post just days after spokesperson and longtime aide Symone Sanders announced her departure.

One former staffer claimed the vice president fails to read briefing materials, then lashes out at others when she’s unprepared.

“It’s clear that you’re not working with somebody who is willing to do the prep and the work,” the staffer said.  “With Kamala you have to put up with a constant amount of soul-destroying criticism and also her own lack of confidence. So you’re constantly sort of propping up a bully, and it’s not really clear why.”

Others, however, have defended Harris.

Peggy Noonan / Wall Street Journal

“President Biden’s poll numbers are bad and Vice President Kamala Harris’s are worse. A survey this week from conservative-leaning Rasmussen had her at 39% favorable, 57% unfavorable.  The number that stuck in the public’s mind came last month from a USA TODAY/ Suffolk poll that put her approval at 28%, disapproval at 51%.

“The past few weeks she’s been hammered by bad news….

“All this leaves people uneasy. The president is old and his judgment questionable; she seems out of her depth.  We will have another three years of this?  It is also dangerous: We don’t want their weakness to become America’s weakness….

“First, the good news.  The Harris Is Incompetent stories are played out, at least for the next few months.  More would be overkill.  The good thing about having been killed is nobody expects anything from you because you’re dead.  Expectations are low.  Ms. Harris can use the time of her deadness to focus on why she’s failing.  Those who know her doubt she is capable of deep change, and a reset would have to deal not with surface matters but those more fundamental.  Still, she’d be staring into the abyss right now, and perhaps seeing this is her last chance to correct a bad impression….

“Her supporters grouse that she is criticized because she is a woman of color.  Axios’ Jonathan Swann quoted some in August. They see ‘sexist overtones’ and ‘gendered dynamics in press coverage.’  This was echoed in this week’s Washington Post piece: her defenders say criticism is steeped in ‘racism and sexism’; she faces a double standard ‘for women who are ambitious, powerful or simply unafraid to appear strong in public.’

“But she doesn’t seem strong in public; she seems scattered and unprepared….

“Her real problems look more like this: She loves the politics of politics too much, and not the meaning.  When people meet with her they come away saying that what she cares about is the politics of the issue, not the issue itself.  But even as she’s obsessed with the game of politics she’s not so far particularly good at it.  When she sought the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020, she spectacularly flamed out….

“The reason people watch Ms. Harris so closely isn’t that she’s a woman of color or a breakthrough figure, but that she could become president at any moment the next three years.

“They want to have some confidence.  They don’t want to have to worry about it.”

Wall Street and the Economy

There was only a little economic news on the week, but it was important.  Weekly jobless claims hit a 52-year low, Sept. 6, 1969, at 184,000, another post-Covid low as well.  I can’t help but add for New York Mets fans that on that day in 1969, our soon-to-be “Miracle Mets” were 4 ½ games back of the Cubs, but about to embark on a 10-game winning streak that would propel them into a 5-game lead, as Chicago was losing 9 of 10 over the same period.  But I digress.

While the weekly claims number was good news, you still had the incongruity of a report for October that showed a whopping 11.033 million job openings vs. a revised 10.602 million for September.  The number of those quitting the job market did fall from 4.4 million to 4.2 million according to the Labor Department and its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

So while it’s easy to find a new job, with 1.5 available jobs for each unemployed person (7.4 million Americans in October), employers continue to struggle to fill an unprecedented number of vacancies.

Nineteen percent of workers said they’re unhappy with how employers treated them during the pandemic.  This could include those who burned out after being forced to work long hours while colleagues were out or are in stressful industries such as health care.

This is but one of the issues facing the Federal Reserve when it gathers for a critical meeting of the Open Market Committee.  How to truly assess the job market?

The other issue is of course inflation.  As expected, today’s consumer price report for November was ugly, up 0.8% for the month, 0.5% ex-food and energy, with the year-over-year figures 6.8%, and 4.9% on core.  For the former, the worst since June 1982, ex-food and energy the highest since June 1991.

When Chair Powell and his gang gets together for one of its FOMC meetings, market participants like to say “all eyes will be on the Fed.”  Often it’s a throwaway line, but not this time.  Literally, all eyes will be on Jerome Powell as the market is anxious to see the messaging of both the accompanying statement from the FOMC, as well as Powell’s comments in a press conference after.

What will the Fed say about speeding up the tapering of its bond buying program, which would allow it to begin raising interest rates in perhaps April or May rather than June or July, and will Powell hint at the number of possible rate hikes in 2022.

If the Fed signals even deeper concern about inflation than Powell did in recent congressional testimony, the markets will be spooked.  After all, he said inflation can no longer be described as “transitory.”

But Powell knows it’s hard to weigh the impact of the coronavirus.  On one hand the economics are good.  Fourth-quarter GDP is going to be strong (the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for Q4 is at 8.7%), but of the nearly 50 million people infected with Covid-19, many continue to suffer from some persistent symptoms, with a smaller subset suffering so much they can’t work, forcing them to drop out of the workforce.

Several medical specialists have estimated 750,000 to 1.3 million patients likely remain so sick from long Covid (the “long haulers”) that they can’t return to the workforce full time.  This has all kinds of economic consequences Chair Powell has long commented on.  Employers are being tested for one.

But the market is most interested in the Fed’s comments on inflation, which I believe we’ll soon learn peaked with the November data.

Nearly three in ten Americans say their top concern is paying for basic needs or the cost of goods due to inflation, according to a new poll from Monmouth University.

Overall, the number of respondents who said it is easy for them to pay grocery bills dropped by 13 points in the past two years, the Monmouth researchers said.

Almost one in five Americans, 18%, cited the coronavirus as their top worry in daily life.  Yet about a third of respondents named paying for everyday bills, at 15%, or inflation, at 14%, as the top issues they’re facing right now.

Europe and Asia

--GDP for the third quarter in the eurozone rose 2.2% compared with the previous quarter, the same rate as in the second quarter.  When compared with Q3 2020, growth was 3.9%.

Germany 2.6% (over Q3 2020), France 3.3%, Italy 3.9%, Spain 2.7%, Netherlands 5.0%, Ireland 11.4%.

Brexit…not really: Three government parties last Christmas are now under investigation by the UK’s top civil servant, Simon Case, for possible breaches of Covid rules.

But the opposition Labour Party is saying Case’s inquiry is a “sham,” citing then deputy director of communications Jack Doyle giving a speech to 20-30 people at the gathering on December 18, where there were food, drinks and games.

At the same time, there is an investigation into reported excessive funding for refurbishments to the Downing Street flat, so the opposition is looking for heads to roll.

Downing Street said: “There is an ongoing review, and we won’t be commenting further while that is the case.”

So Prime Minister Boris Johnson is on the hot seat again over Covid-19, forced by the Omicron variant to tighten restrictions, even as he struggles to contain the fallout over the allegations his staff broke lockdown rules.  His poll numbers are plummeting.  The whole issue is the height of hypocrisy and the people, who had to live under entirely different rules than government insiders seemingly did, are pissed.

Brexit issues have taken a back seat for now.

Germany: Olaf Scholz was sworn in as German chancellor on Wednesday, leading a three-party government that takes over from Angela Merkel after 16 years in office.

His new government is formed of Social Democrats, Greens and Free Democrats.

Scholz is a softspoken 63-year-old who steered the Social Democrats to election victory in late September.

Since the vote, Scholz has worked with the Greens and business-friendly Free Democrats on a coalition deal, signed Tuesday.

Quite a change for Europe, which is without one giant leader at a most critical time.

Turning to Asia…China reported its export figures for November, up 22% year-over-year, vs. a 27.1% rise in October. Imports surged 31.7%.

In the first 11 months of the year, China’s exports rose by 31.1% year on year, while imports were up 31.4%.

China’s imports from the U.S. rose by 22.1% in November, while exports increased 5.3%.

China’s exports to the European Union rose by 33.5% from a year earlier, while imports were up by 4.2%.

The inflation rate for November was 2.3% annualized vs. 1.5% October.  Producer prices were up 12.9% Y/Y, but this is an improvement from October’s 13.5%.

A measure of vehicle sales was down 9.1% year-over-year owing to the ongoing global semiconductor shortage issue.

Japan issued its final report on third-quarter GDP, -3.6% annualized. [Think Covid restrictions and global supply chain issues.]

Household spending in October fell 0.6% Y/Y.

And we just had a reading on November producer prices, up 9% year-on-year, though the monthly rise of 0.6% was an improvement on October’s 1.2% M/M increase.

Street Bytes

--Stocks made up for the losses of the past few weeks, for the most part, as investors grew more hopeful that the Omicron variant of Covid-19 may have smaller effects on the U.S. economy than initially feared.

The S&P 500 closed at a new record high, 4712, up 3.8%, while the Dow Jones surged 4.0% to 35970 (about 500 points shy of its record mark) and Nasdaq gained 3.6%.

Equities were up across the globe, with the Stoxx Europe 600 (the S&P 500 equivalent across the pond) up 2.8%.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 0.11%  2-yr. 0.65%  10-yr. 1.48%  30-yr. 1.88%

The short end of the curve continues to rise in anticipation of Fed rate hikes next year, but the long end remains well behaved.

--Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said on Monday he would probably end up supporting Fed Chair Powell’s nomination for a second four-year term.  Speaking at an event, McConnell said: “We don’t have a president who is likely to nominate somebody for the Fed that would be my first choice and I’m probably going to end up supporting Powell.”

Powell must be approved by the 50-50 Senate.

--Oil rallied early this week largely on hopes the Omicron variant would have a less damaging economic impact if its symptoms proved mostly mild.  Crude was also buoyed by diminishing prospects of a rise in Iranian oil exports after indirect U.S.-Iran talks on saving the 2015 nuclear deal hit an impasse.

But then the rally stalled out after measures by some governments to slow the spread of Omicron and issues with the following in China, thus stoking fears over the economic health of the world’s biggest oil consumer.

Nonetheless, crude held its early gains to finish the week at $71.96 on WTI, up $5.76 on the week but well off the recent weekly closing high of $83.98.

--No holders of two bonds issued by China Evergrande Group’s unit Scenery Journey Ltd. had received overdue coupon payments Tuesday. The embattled property giant was due to make semi-annual coupon payments on Monday worth a combined $82.49 million on its 13% November 2022 and 13.75% November 2023 bonds.

Ergo, default, and Fitch cut Evergrande’s rating to restricted default (as well as that of another developer, Kaisa Group) over its failure to meet these payments.  People’s Bank of China head Yi Gang said the company’s inability to pay its debt is a market event and should be dealt with in a market-oriented way.

Chinese authorities stepped up their involvement in the company’s affairs as the developer moved closer to a reorganization.  Last weekend, Evergrande said it planned to work with offshore creditors on a restructuring, after which Chinese regulators issued a statement saying they would work to keep the broader property market stable.

The PBOC freed up $190 billion for banks to lend by reducing the amount of money they must hold as reserves.

Evergrande shares fell to their lowest level since 2010, with the company’s 8.75% bonds due 2025 quoted at about 18 cents on the dollar, a record low.

As of the end of June, Evergrande had total debts of the equivalent of roughly $89 billion, out of a broader set of liabilities topping more than $300 billion.

--The Federal Aviation Administration on Tuesday warned interference from planned use of 5G wireless spectrum poses an air safety risk and could result in flight diversions.  The aviation industry and the FAA have raised concerns about potential interference of 5G with sensitive aircraft electronics like radio altimeters.

AT&T and Verizon in November agreed to delay the commercial launch of C-Band wireless service until Jan. 5 after the FAA raised concerns.  The FAA issued a pair of airworthiness directives that orders the revision of airplane manuals to prohibit some operations requiring radio altimeter data when in the presence of 5G C-Band wireless broadband signals.

The FAA directive Tuesday said the “unsafe condition” posed by the planned use requires immediate action before the Jan. 5 deployment “because radio altimeter anomalies that are undetected by the aircraft automation or pilot, particularly close to the ground…could lead to loss of continued safe flight and landing.”

The FAA reiterated in a statement Tuesday it believes the “expansion of 5G and aviation will safely co-exist.”

Wireless groups argue that there have been no C-Band aviation safety issues in other countries using the spectrum.

--American Airlines Group Inc. CEO Doug Parker is retiring from the job next year after two decades running airlines, handing the reins to a longtime lieutenant, Robert Isom, as the company begins to emerge from the pandemic.  Parker will continue to serve as chairman of American’s board.

Parker took the helm at America West Airlines in 2001, just ten days before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.  And now he leaves as the industry tries to move past Covid-19.

Parker was one of the vocal advocates for federal help last year to avoid catastrophe and $54 billion in government payroll support followed.  American was particularly vulnerable because of its debt load heading into the pandemic.

The aid helped avoid thousands of layoffs, but now the program has come under fire as airlines like American struggle with staffing issues.

Parker’s career has been marked by mergers with bigger rivals in moments of financial weakness.  In 2005, he led a merger between America West and US Airways, with the latter in Chapter 11.

A few years later, with American in bankruptcy proceedings, Parker combined two airlines to create an industry giant.  American and US Airways merged in 2013, creating the world’s largest airline by traffic, with Parker at the helm.  But through Tuesday, the stock price had fallen about 27% since the merged company’s first day of trading.

--Separately, American said it would trim international flights next summer because of Boeing Co.’s delays in delivering new 787 Dreamliners.

A schedule cut is the latest sign of broader fallout for Boeing’s prolonged Dreamliner production problems that have largely prevented it from handing over the popular wide-body jets to airlines for more than a year.

American now won’t fly to Edinburgh; Shannon, Ireland; or Hong Kong next summer, and will reduce the frequency of flights to Shanghai, Beijing and Sydney.  The carrier also isn’t bringing back seasonal flights to Prague or Dubrovnik, Croatia, and is delaying the launch of certain routes.

Deliveries of the 787 aren’t expected to resume until April 1, 2022, at the earliest.

--TSA checkpoint travel numbers vs. 2019….

12/9…83 percent of 2019 levels
12/8…80
12/7…77
12/6…83
12/5…89
12/4…89
12/3…86
12/2…82

*Post-pandemic high of 2,451,300 travelers set on 11/28 (Sun. after Thanksgiving).

--Apple Inc. rose sharply on Wednesday after winning a U.S. appeals court reprieve in rolling out changes to the App Store ordered by a federal judge as part of the big tech company’s antitrust battle with Epic Games Inc.

The court granted the iPhone maker’s request to delay implementation of a federal judge’s order to force Apple to allow developers to communicate with users inside their apps about alternative payment methods outside of the App Store.

The order means Apple will be able to delay, perhaps for years, putting in place some of the most significant changes ever to how it operates its lucrative App Store as the company and Epic seek broader appeals.

“Apple has demonstrated, at minimum, that its appeal raises serious questions on the merits of the district court’s determination that Epic Games, Inc. failed to show Apple’s conduct violated any antitrust laws but did show that the same conduct violated California’s Unfair Competition Law,” the appeals court order said.

The case began in August 2020 when Epic filed suit against Apple claiming the company had improper monopolies in controlling software distribution on its devices and forcing developers to use its in-app payment system, which takes a fee of as much as 30%.

Apple shares finished at a record $179.89 today.  At $182.86 it would have a market cap of $3 trillion.  Goodness gracious.

--Tesla shares nosedived early in the week after regulators opened an investigation into the company over a whistleblower complaint that the company failed to properly notify its shareholders and the public of fire risks associated with solar panel system defects over several years, according to a letter from the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The probe raises regulatory pressure on the world’s most valuable automaker, which already faces a federal safety probe into accidents involving its driver assist systems.

Concerns about fires from Tesla solar systems have been published previously, but this is the first report of investigation by the securities regulator.

--Toyota Motor Corp. is investing $1.25 billion and creating 1,750 jobs with a new electric-vehicle battery plant in rural North Carolina – Randolph County (25 miles south of Greensboro) – a big boon to the state, which has been the rare exception among Southern states without a major auto production or electric-vehicle battery facility.  The state has lagged behind neighboring South Carolina.

Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and Kentucky have become major players in a region of the U.S. that increasingly dominates auto production at the expense of traditional strongholds such as Detroit.

State and local economic-development groups in North Carolina have spent a decade preparing a shovel-ready site.

Toyota, long an electric-vehicle skeptic, said earlier this fall that it would spend $9 billion to build battery factories as it ramps up to sell two million electric vehicles annually by the end of the decade.  Toyota, like Ford Motor, is opting to build its batteries in-house, a bet on the merits of controlling its own supply rather than relying on an outside supplier.

--Canada threatened on Friday to impose tariffs on a range of American exports if U.S. legislators approve a plan to grant an electric-vehicle tax credit for domestic manufacturers, a measure Ottawa strongly opposes.

I totally agree with Canada on this one.  Why do we keep insisting on sticking it to our neighbor!

--The shell company that is facilitating former President Trump’s return to Wall Street disclosed Monday that federal regulators are investigating the deal.

In October, Trump announced a new media venture that would “stand up to the tyranny of Big Tech.”  That new entity, chaired by the former president, agreed to go public through a merger with Digital World, a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC.

Shares of Digital World skyrocketed as much as 1,657% in the days after the deal was announced, achieving meme stock status even though little is known about the venture.

The thing is Trump began discussing a merger with Digital World long before the blank-check company went public and before such talks were disclosed to investors, the New York Times first reported in late October.

Digital World was repeatedly telling shareholders that it had not held substantive talks with a target company, which is just a lie.

The SEC is seeking documents relating to meetings of the board of directors, for starters.

Meanwhile, Digital World said it has entered into subscription agreements to raise about $1 billion from a group of unnamed investors, though it appears the shares are being sold to hedge funds and family offices.

--Athletic apparel chain Lululemon Athletica Inc. raised its full-year revenue forecast on Thursday, as demand for athleisure clothing during the pandemic showed little signs of slowing.

The company said it now expects annual revenue to be between $6.25 billion and $6.30 billion, compared with a prior forecast of $6.19bn to $6.26bn. Revenue in the third quarter rose to $1.45 billion, from $1.12 billion a year earlier.

--Starbucks workers in Buffalo won a pathbreaking bid to form a union after votes were counted Thursday, part of a wave of labor activism sweeping the country in the midst of the pandemic.

The café in Elmwood Village will become the only unionized location among the coffee giant’s 9,000 corporate-owned stores in the United States.

Baristas at the store voted 19-8 to unionize despite months of opposition from the Seattle-based company.  Senior executives and teams of managers spent weeks in Buffalo and held repeated meetings urging workers to reject the step.

The employees will join Workers United, an arm of the Service Employees International Union.

Baristas at three stores in Buffalo cast votes in a mail-in election conducted by the National Labor Relations Board. A second store rejected the union drive, while balloting in a third is inconclusive.

According to a Gallup survey conducted in August, nearly 70 percent of Americans now approve of unions, the highest such figure in more than 50 years.

Howard Schultz, the man who built Starbucks into a global giant, traveled to Buffalo last month for a meeting with company baristas.  He told them that the company had given workers pioneering benefits – including health insurance, stock options and online college tuition – without being pushed to do so.

--Shares of BuzzFeed plunged as much as 17 percent in their Nasdaq debut on Monday, after its merger with a blank-check company was hit by a flurry of investor withdrawals last week, closing the first week at $6.00, down from the IPO of $10.

After shareholders redeemed a majority of their stake, BuzzFeed said last week it would receive only 6 percent, or nearly $16 million, of proceeds from the trust account of the blank-check company 890 Fifth Avenue Partners Inc., named after the fictional Avengers mansion.

BuzzFeed’s deal is a barometer of investor interest for peers like Vox Media, which is reportedly considering a SPAC merger.  Magnum Opus Acquisition, the SPAC merging with Forbes, has been trading below its issue price of $10.

BuzzFeed also secured $150 million through a convertible note financing.

--Shares in GameStop cratered 10% on Thursday after the gaming and consumer electronics merchandiser reported a wider-than-expected loss in the fiscal third quarter and said its focus was on scaling up the business and growing sales, which would take care of profitability in the long run.

Revenue jumped to $1.3 billion during the 13-week period ended Oct. 30 from $1.01 billion a year ago, with analysts expecting $1.19 billion.

But the adjusted loss grew to $1.39 per share vs. estimates of a loss of $0.52.

In the quarter just ended, the firm said it has made investments in infrastructure, talent and technology. It has been exploring emerging opportunities in blockchain, non-fungible tokens and Web 3.0 gaming in its pursuit of becoming a much larger business that it is now.

--The Quebec Maple Syrup Producers – the so-called OPEC of maple syrup – has released about 22m kg (48 million pounds, I think) from its emergency larder, nearly half the total in reserve.

Booming demand and a shortened harvest had caused the shortfall, QMSP said.

“That’s why the reserve is made, to never miss maple syrup.  And we won’t miss maple syrup!” Helene Normandin of QMSP told U.S. public radio.

We thank our friends from the Great White North, who are already planning ahead to next year’s harvest, where it will tap an extra 7 million trees.

The Pandemic

Pfizer/BioNTech have said that a three-shot course of their Covid-19 vaccine was able to neutralize the new Omicron variant in a laboratory test.

According to the partners, two doses of their Covid vaccine resulted in significantly lower neutralizing antibodies but could still be protective against severe disease.

BioNTech’s chief medical officer, Ozlem Tuereci, said at a press conference: “The first line of defense, with two doses of vaccination, might be compromised and three doses of vaccination are required to restore protection.”

The companies also said they could deliver an upgraded vaccine targeted specifically at the Omicron variant in March 2022 if one is needed.

But Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said Wednesday that people might need a fourth Covid-19 shot sooner than expected after preliminary research shows the new Omicron variant can undermine protective antibodies generated by the vaccine.

“When we see real-world data, we will determine if the Omicron is well covered by the third dose and for how long.  And the second point, I think we will need a fourth dose,” Bourla said on CNBC.

Bourla previously projected that a fourth shot would be needed 12 months after the third dose.  “With Omicron we need to wait and see because we have very little information. We may need it faster,” he said.

Again, it’s still mostly lab work.  As I noted last week, Israel, the leader in early data, is already administering fourth shots.

But this afternoon we did get real-world findings of the kind Dr. Bourla is speaking of from the UK Health Security Agency, which said booster shots significantly restore protection against mild disease cause by the Omicron variant, in part reversing an otherwise steep drop in vaccine effectiveness.

Separately, the Food and Drug Administration signed off on all Americans ages 16 and up to receive a booster shot of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.  Previously, only adults aged 18 and up were eligible.

“Vaccination and getting a booster when eligible, along with other preventive measures like masking and avoiding large crowds and poorly ventilated spaces, remain our most effective methods for fighting Covid-19,” Dr. Janet Woodcock of the FDA said Thursday.

The CDC must still sign off on the recommendation, though some states aren’t waiting for permission.

Covid-19 death tolls, as of tonight….

World…5,310,991
USA…817,326
Brazil…616,733
India…474,875
Mexico…296,186
Russia…287,180
Peru…201,527
UK…146,255
Indonesia…143,923
Italy…134,669
Iran…130,603
Colombia…129,011
France…120,168
Argentina…116,748
Germany…105,931
Ukraine…90,343
South Africa…90,080
Spain…88,381
Poland…87,928
Turkey…78,788
Romania…57,531
Philippines…49,961
Chile…38,638
Hungary…36,429
Czechia…34,242
Ecuador…33,498
Malaysia…30,831
Canada…29,897
Bulgaria…29,459
Pakistan…28,812
Bangladesh…28,017
Belgium…27,463
Vietnam…27,402
Tunisia…25,419
Iraq…23,959
Thailand…21,110
Egypt…20,966
Netherlands…20,004

[Source: worldometers.info]

U.S. daily death tolls…Mon. 633; Tue. 1,722; Wed. 1,324; Thurs. 1,416; Fri. 1,574.

Covid Bytes

--A Japanese study found Omicron is 4.2 times more transmissible in its early stage than Delta.

--New coronavirus infections in South Korea exceeded 7,000 for the third consecutive day on Friday in a record-breaking surge that has crushed hospitals and threatens the country’s goals to weather the pandemic without lockdowns.

Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum said during a virus meeting that the country could be forced to take “extraordinary” measures if the virus doesn’t slow soon.  The government is speeding up the administration of booster shots by shortening the interval between the second and third vaccine injections from the current four or five months to three months starting next week.

Eighty-one percent of the population of over 51 million has been fully vaccinated, but only 10% have received booster shots.

--The British government warned that Covid-19 infections caused by the Omicron variant are doubling every two or three days, as it imposed new restrictions in England, including a work from home order and a requirement for proof of vaccination for indoor venues such as nightclubs.

British authorities say Omicron could crowd out the currently dominant Delta variant within weeks.

--Hospitalizations in my state of New Jersey are at their highest level since May 2 and higher than any day during the summer when the highly-contagious Delta variant propelled an unexpected surge.

As of Tuesday, there were 1,409 hospitalizations in the Garden State vs. 644 on Nov. 7, not exactly a great trend.

--New York Gov. Kathy Hochul issued a statewide mask mandate today, ordering face coverings in all New York businesses that do not require proof of vaccination, as the state grapples with a winter wave that continues to stretch hospitals thin.

The mandate will enter force on Monday and last for at least a month and impact all public indoor spaces that lack the proof-of-jab measures.

Since Thanksgiving, the state’s seven-day average of cases has spiked by more than 40%, and hospitalizations have climbed by almost one-third, according to state data.

--In Italy, starting Monday through Jan. 15, those who are unvaccinated are being excluded from indoor restaurants, theaters and museums to reduce the spread of coronavirus and encourage vaccine skeptics to get their shots.

--Covax, the UN-led initiative to get vaccine doses to low- and middle-income nations has been a failure.  The initial pledge was to deliver more than 2 billion shots (2.3bn) worldwide by the end of the year.  Now the goal has been reduced to 800 million by year end.

--Lyft delayed its office return for all of 2022.

Wall Street investment bank Jefferies Financial Group Inc. said late Wednesday that its asking employees to work from home for a spell, while canceling holiday client events and corporate travel, following an outbreak of Covid infections in its New York office.

Jefferies said it has seen forty new Covid cases this month – around a quarter of them on Tuesday alone – even as it issued mask and booster shot mandates for all its 4,500 global employees by the end of next month.

Not a good sign for Wall Street’s hoped for full reopening.

--Brazil’s Supreme Court has opened an inquiry into comments made by President Jair Bolsonaro wrongly claiming that Covid-19 vaccines may increase the chance of contracting AIDs.

The comments, made during a social media livestream in October, saw him temporarily banned from Facebook and YouTube under their fake news policies.  The assertion was strongly rejected by scientists and medical experts.

He is already facing a separate inquiry into his handling of the pandemic.

Foreign Affairs

Iran: Tehran’s top negotiator in the nuclear talks said on Thursday that he had insisted Iran was serious in the negotiations, underlining that Iran was continuing talks based on its previous positions.

“Iran underlined that it seriously continues the talks based on its previous position,” Ali Bagheri Kani told reporters after talks resumed in Vienna.  “Iran is serious about reaching an agreement if the ground is paved.  The fact that all sides want the talks to continue shows that all parties want to narrow the gaps.”

U.S. special envoy for Iran Robert Malley told Al Jazeera TV on Thursday that the United States was ready to hold direct negotiations with the Iranians on Tehran’s nuclear program, calling it the best solution to such a complicated issue.  Malley added that Iran did not present constructive proposals during previous negotiations and even retracted compromises it had made before.

So while Malley said the U.S. was ready to hold direct negotiations, the administration is moving to tighten enforcement of sanctions against Iran, particularly on the banking and flow of money sides.  U.S. officials are reportedly going to meet with companies and banks in the United Arab Emirates that do substantial business with Iran.

Early in the week, in a joint statement from Britain, France and Germany, the three warned there is little possibility of a successful negotiation.

“Over five months ago, Iran interrupted negotiations, and since then, Iran has fast-forwarded its nuclear program,” the statement read.  “This week, it has backtracked on diplomatic progress made.  Iran is breaking with almost all of the difficult compromises crafted in months of tough negotiations and is demanding substantial changes to the text” that undermines the draft, which was between 70 and 80 percent finished, they said.

The German foreign ministry said it was unacceptable that Iran was advancing its nuclear capacity in parallel with the talks.

Editorial / Washington Post

“Under the circumstances, it appears increasingly likely that Iran is treating the Vienna sessions as an opportunity to air grievances against the United States, and make demands it knows the Biden administration cannot meet, as a prelude to definitive repudiation of the deal.  Of all the problems the Trump administration created for its successor, the prospect of confrontation with an Iran pursuing ramped-up nuclear weapons and missile development ranks as one of the most difficult.  Imperfect and risky as it was, the 2015 deal at least bought time to avoid that scenario.  Now, however, Israel is watching nervously, reserving the right to strike Iran militarily.  Iranian retaliation could trigger a regional war, drawing in neighboring Arab countries and, ultimately, the United States.

“If diplomacy fails at Vienna, it must be pursued in other venues: specifically, the United States will have to forge a common approach among its European and Middle Eastern allies, one that simultaneously deters Iran, punishes aggression and dangles rewards for peaceful behavior.  Russia and China – which endorsed the original 2015 deal due to their own concerns about a nuclear-armed Iran – will be in a position either to spoil U.S. strategy or, quietly, enable it.  There are no good options.  The skill with which the Biden administration managed the limited alternatives available could make or break its foreign policy, and the stability of the Middle East.”

Israel has told President Biden that the U.S. should end the talks and not succumb to Tehran’s “nuclear blackmail.”

There was a mysterious explosion last Saturday over the central Iranian town of Natanz, which houses nuclear installations.  Iran, according to state TV, said Iranian air defenses fired a missile as part of an exercise. Iranian news agencies earlier reported a large explosion in the sky above Natanz, accompanies by an intense light in the sky.

Israel has attacked the base at Natanz before through various means.

China: Monday, the United States said it would not send diplomats to the Winter Olympics in Beijing over concerns about China’s human rights record.

Australia then said it will join the U.S. in a diplomatic boycott of the Winter Games.  Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the decision was in response to “human rights abuses” in Xinjiang province and “many other issues that Australia has consistently raised.”

Canada and Britain also announced diplomatic boycotts of the Games, with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau saying his government was “deeply troubled” by Chinese rights violations.

China’s embassy in Canada issued a statement late Wednesday saying the actions of Ottawa and its allies were based on “ideological prejudice…lies and rumors.”

The embassy condemned what it called systemic racism that left Canada unqualified to judge China’s human rights situation, which it said was enjoying the best period in the nation’s history.

Editorial / Global Times…the Communist Party mouthpiece, offered without comment…

“The U.S. announced Monday that the Biden administration will not send an official U.S. delegation to the Beijing 2022 Winter Games, although both the White House and the State Department avoided using the term “diplomatic boycott.”  The statement, issued only three days before the so-called Summit for Democracy, apparently serves as ballyhoos for that gang-like summit.

“U.S. athletes will participate in the Beijing Games as normal, so will those from other countries and regions.  The big picture of a successful Winter Olympics is set, and the Olympic spirit and tradition will be further promoted.  The absence of an official delegation was formally announced by Washington, showing a high level of narcissism as well as the fact that they have taken themselves too seriously.  Chinese people will respond to them with a single ‘Huh? So what?’

“The U.S. statement came with a repeated smear on China of ‘human rights abuses’ and ‘ongoing genocide’ in Xinjiang, which is too outdated in the internet age to stir up much imagination or concern. The only message people get from the statement is that the U.S., once again, is turning on China when the Beijing Winter Olympics are just around the corner.

“The U.S. tactic is known to all – it attempts to find fault with China and make anti-China stunts internationally. It would be strange if they keep quiet on the upcoming Winter Olympics.  The U.S. regards the absence of an official U.S. delegation to Beijing as a ‘trump card’ and tries to make a ‘straight flush’ with its allies at the cost of the Olympic spirit, showing an unpromising and malicious diplomacy of Washington….

“The Chinese people will no longer be shocked by whatever tricks the U.S. plays.  On the one hand, we are fully aware of the hostility from Washington.  On the other, the U.S. has lost its halo in Chinese society.  We witness how the U.S. has become a country with no bottom line.  It could talk nonsense and mess up all things.  Our expectation toward Washington has been lowered to the level of ‘OK, we have encountered a hooligan!’  This has greatly boosted our ability to withstand ‘disgusting’ issues in China-U.S. ties.

“In the future, Chinese people will no longer consider cooperation from the U.S. as something supplementary.  On the contrary, through the U.S. entanglement with China, and the fact that U.S. officials do not know how to speak without naming China, we have sensed China’s success and its unprecedented importance in the eyes of major powers worldwide.  China is getting stronger.  Our success needs no certificate from any external force.  Our confidence has made us no longer being bothered in trifle issues or we simply lose interest in them.

“Let the U.S. live the wrong way; let the U.S. officials entertain themselves by not attending the Winter Olympics as a much-too-heavy chip.  One day they may become so arrogant to ask for a fee for using public toilets in foreign cities.

“What the U.S. needs most now is to get back its lost understanding of its own. It should know that its performance over the Winter Olympics is almost like streaking, which is by no means art.”

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi took aim at Washington after Beijing established formal ties with Nicaragua, which switched its formal recognition from Taipei to Beijing.

In a meeting with his Nicaraguan counterpart in Tianjin, Wang said few countries remained allies of Taiwan because of the island’s “money diplomacy” and pressure from the U.S.

Wang said Nicaragua’s decision to switch sides put it on “the right side of history” and mainland China must eventually reunite with Taiwan.

He also accused the U.S. of having “outside standards” on the issue.

“The U.S. itself established diplomatic relations with China some 40 years ago.  What right do they have to prevent other sovereign countries from making their own choices?”

Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen said today that Taiwan was unbowed in its determination to uphold democracy, after Nicaragua ditched its ties with Taipei.

“The more successful Taiwan’s democracy is, the stronger the international support, and the greater the pressure from the authoritarian camp,” she told reporters.  No matter the pressure, it will not change Taiwan’s determination to uphold democracy and freedom and “march towards the world,” she added.

As for the Chinese military threat against Taiwan, speaking at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the many planes flying through Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone represent an opportunity for China to get a sense of potential operations.

“I don’t want to speculate, but certainly, it looks like a lot of them are exploring their true capabilities, and sure, it looks a lot like rehearsing” for operations against Taiwan, Austin said.

Former and present U.S. military leaders who addressed the forum also conceded that supplying Guam with an appropriate air defense network is way behind schedule, like 2026, at best.

Lastly, after five weeks of concern about the safety of tennis player Peng Shuai in China, the International Olympic Committee said Tuesday it cannot give any certainties about her case.

The IOC’s two video calls with Peng are the only reported contacts she has had with people outside China since Nov. 2 when she sent a social media post alleging she was sexually assaulted by a former top Communist Party official.

The IOC had no good answers when asked at a press conference why Peng has not spoken with tennis players or Women’s Tennis Association leaders.

Russia/Ukraine: Thursday, Russia accused the Ukrainian government of moving heavy artillery towards the conflict zone in eastern Ukraine and of pretending to negotiate to resolve tensions there, RIA and Interfax news agencies reported.

And then the Russian foreign ministry accused Ukraine today of a “provocation” over an incident involving a Ukrainian warship near the Kerch Strait.  Ukraine has dismissed the Russian complaints as part of a Russian “information attack” on Kyiv.

Russia’s Federal Security Service said on Thursday that a Ukrainian vessel had headed towards the Kerch Strait that separates Russia and its annexed peninsula of Crimea, and did not react to a Russian request to change its course.  The Ukrainian vessel later headed back, it said.

So Tuesday, Putin and Biden held a high-stakes virtual summit in hopes of easing tensions, but although the Kremlin described the two-hour discussion as “frank and businesslike,” the path forward for both sides remains unclear.

“President Biden voiced the deep concerns of the United States and our European allies about Russia’s escalation of forces surrounding Ukraine,” the White House said in a statement.

Biden “made clear that the U.S. and our allies would respond with strong economic and other measures in the event of military escalation.”  The president also “called for de-escalation and a return to diplomacy,” the statement said.

Following the call, U.S. officials made clear that if the Russian leader does take military action against Ukraine, freezing the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline and its money-earning potential would be a key mode of retaliation.

The $12 billion pipeline, majority-owned by Russian giant Gazprom, was completed in September, just around the time the Russian buildup of some 100,000 troops near the border with Ukraine began.

“It is leverage for the West, because if Vladimir Putin wants to see gas flow through that pipeline, he may not want to take the risk of invading Ukraine,” said White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.

The Kremlin said Putin blamed NATO for tensions with Ukraine and insisted on “legal guarantees” against the Western military alliance expanding its forces any closer to Russia.

Putin says he sees Ukraine’s growing alliance with Western nations as a threat to Russian security – and that any move by Ukraine to join NATO or to host NATO missiles would be unacceptable.

“Russia is seriously interested in obtaining reliable legal guarantees that will exclude NATO’s eastward expansion and the deployment of offensive strike weapons in countries adjacent to Russia,” the Kremlin said.

Putin and Biden did not discuss the poisoning and jailing of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, the banning of his groups as “extremist” or the controversial results of this year’s parliamentary elections.  While Washington has criticized Russia over these issues, Moscow views such criticisms as interference in its domestic affairs.

Washington’s accusations of Russian meddling in its presidential elections were also absent from the conversation.

In the end, there were no significant breakthroughs.

Biden then spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday and Zelensky told
Biden that the extreme sanctions Biden talked about with Putin should be announced ahead of time, in public, though not applied if certain conditions were met. Needless to say, Zelensky also called for more weaponry, which has been flowing into Ukraine, though probably not in time to avoid what will be a bloodbath.

Editorial / Washington Post

“ ‘Appeasement’ and the Munich analogy can be overused. Yet Mr. Putin’s trumped-up demand for security guarantees – at the point of a gun – is one that Mr. Biden cannot, indeed, dare not meet, lest he destabilize all of Europe to autocratic Russia’s advantage.  The region’s actual security already rests upon ‘reliable, legally fixed guarantees,’ the most important of which is the sanctity of international borders.  Ukraine is not some wayward territorial sibling, rightfully belonging with its big Russia brother, as Mr. Putin portrays it in the propaganda he has been spreading as his legions gather in Russia’s western regions.  As of 1991 – 30 years ago – Ukraine is a sovereign, independent, member state of the United Nations, fully entitled to decide its own future, up to and including joining NATO or the European Union.  That is black-letter international law.  In December 1994, Russia itself signed the Budapest Memorandum, pledging to ‘refrain from the threat or use of force’ against Ukraine as the latter gave up its Soviet-era nuclear deterrent.

“What’s not lawful, therefore, is Mr. Putin’s purported annexation, by force, of Ukraine’s Crimea region and his de facto occupation of a slice of eastern Ukraine known as the Donbas in 2014.  To be sure, both have been grudgingly tolerated by the United States and its European allies, possibly leading Mr. Putin to believe he can get away with more bullying now.  Nothing Mr. Biden does in the next few weeks will be more important than disabusing Mr. Putin of this idea.”

David Ignatius / Washington Post

“Russian President Vladimir Putin’s path toward threatening an invasion of Ukraine is marked by reckless actions.  In this move toward defiance of international norms, Putin has been subtly encouraged by former president Donald Trump, a fellow traveler in recklessness.

“We don’t need any conspiratorial analysis of Trump’s links with Russia to make this case.  We just need look at the facts.  Trump has been sympathetic to Putin in public statements for nearly a decade.  As for Ukraine, Trump was so heedless of its security that he conditioned U.S. military aid on political favors in the famous 2019 phone call that resulted in his first impeachment.

“If Putin does march into Ukraine, one consequence ought to be severe damage for Trump’s political future.  Yet it probably won’t work out that way.  Trump’s supporters seem ready to forgive him anything, including cheerleading for dictators.  But before it’s too late, we should examine how Putin has broken through the guardrails with Trump’s silent acquiescence or outright approval.

“The record of Trump’s fawning comments is embarrassingly long. In March 2014, he tweeted: ‘I believe Putin will continue to re-build the Russian Empire.’  In August 2015, he told Fox News: ‘Frankly, I’d get along great with him.’  In April 2016, he enthused: ‘We’re going to have a great relationship with Putin and Russia.’  Most egregiously, Trump encouraged Russia’s meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.  (’Russia, if you’re listening…’)  Even after the U.S. intelligence community presented him with hard intelligence about Russia’s sabotage in January 2017, Trump publicly minimized it.

“At the Helsinki summit in 2018, Trump actually took Putin’s side on the election-meddling issue – over that of his intelligence advisers. (‘I have President Putin; he just said it’s not Russia.  I will say this: I don’t see any reason why it would be.’)  Daniel Coats, then director of national intelligence, rebuffed Trump.

“Trump has been doing Putin’s work of destabilization for him.  Russia historically has dreamed of strengthening polarization in the United States and weakening our democracy. That turned out to be Trump’s approach to governing – to the point of trying to overturn the 2020 presidential election results. Now, as Putin contemplates a move into Ukraine, he beholds an America weakened by political divisions bordering on dysfunction.  He sees a moment of opportunity.

“Putin tests the limits, not just under Trump, but with all recent U.S. presidents.  Moscow has tried to destabilize elections across Europe.  Russian intelligence operatives twice tried to murder defectors in Britain, and intelligence sources tell me they even considered a hit job in the United States.  When U.S. forces were challenged in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, Russia stayed on the sidelines.

“Trump’s response to Putin’s defiance of norms has often been to normalize Russian behavior.  When Bill O’Reilly, then with Fox News, called Putin a killer during a February 2017 interview [Ed. the Super Bowl interview], Trump responded, ‘There are a lot of killers. …Do you think our country is so innocent?’….

“Now Putin takes his defiance to the Ukraine border.  Biden has mobilized a coalition to punish Putin with severe economic sanctions if he crosses the line, while also seeking a diplomatic solution.  That’s a path to de-escalation, but the Kremlin wants to keep the world on edge.  Asked Thursday if the Ukraine standoff could become another Cuban missile crisis, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov answered, ‘You know, it really could come to that.’

“Trump supporters blame Biden for making Putin think America is in retreat.  There’s no question that the world is worried about U.S. resolve after the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal, but in the Ukraine crisis Biden has behaved with the right mix of firmness and diplomacy.

“Putin and Trump share the same playbook.  Defy and disrupt; plead innocence when confronted; negotiate through intimidation. They act like pro wrestlers with fake theatrical blunder, but the danger is all too real.  The rule of law is a noble concept, but it needs to be enforced.”

In a separate op-ed, David Ignatius notes that if Putin invades, he would face “a prolonged guerrilla war from Ukrainian militias. Knowledgeable sources estimate that more than 400,000 pro-Kyiv Ukrainians have received at least some training since Russia’s 2014 incursion and that there are at least 1 million weapons in private hands, including AK-47s and other automatic weapons looted from government stores.  As many as 15 militia groups are spread throughout the country – some virulently right-wing, but all capable of causing havoc for Moscow (and probably Kyiv, too).

“ ‘Beyond the response from the U.S. and allies, the Ukrainians will fight fiercely,’ says William B. Taylor, a former U.S. ambassador to Kyiv.  He predicts ‘guerrilla war for sure if the Russians invade and try to stay.’”

Putin also needs to be wary of blowback.  According to private polling, a campaign to suppress Ukraine does not have public support and the political pressures would mount with the rising body count.

Myanmar: The United States criticized Myanmar’s conviction of deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi as an affront to democracy and justice, and demanded the immediate release of the Nobel laureate and other elected officials detained in a Feb. 1 coup.

“The Burmese military regime’s unjust conviction of Aung San Suu Kyi and the repression of other democratically elected officials are yet further affronts to democracy and justice in Burma,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement.

A court in military-ruled Myanmar sentenced Suu Kyi to four years in detention on Monday on charges of incitement and breaching coronavirus restrictions.  State television later said the sentence had been reduced to two years in a partial pardon.

Leaders from around the world condemned Suu Kyi’s conviction.

Ming Yu Hah, Deputy Regional Director of Campaigns for rights group Amnesty International’s statement was emblematic: “The court’s farcical and corrupt decision is part of a devastating pattern of arbitrary punishment that has seen more than 1,300 people killed and thousands arrested since the military coup in February. 

“There are many detainees without the profile of Aung San Suu Kyi who currently face the terrifying prospect of years behind bars simply for peacefully exercising their human rights.  They must not be forgotten and left to their fate.”

Random Musings

--Presidential approval ratings….

Gallup: 42% approve of President Biden’s job performance, 55% disapprove, 37% of independents approve (Nov. 1-16)…new one next week.

Rasmussen: 43% approve, 56% disapprove (Dec. 10).

A new Wall Street Journal poll has Biden with a 41% approval rating, 57% disapproval.  Only 30% of independents approve, 66% disapprove.

On the question of the 2022 midterm elections, 41% would support a Democratic candidate for Congress, 44% a Republican.

Twenty-seven percent believe the country is on the right track, 63% say the country is headed in the wrong direction.

--Republican Gov. Charlie Baker of Massachusetts announced he would not seek reelection in 2022, despite winning the 2018 election with 67% of the vote in one of the most Democratic states in the country.

Clearly, this is in response to the fact Baker publicly acknowledged that he did not vote for Donald Trump in 2016 or 2020 (leaving both ballots blank) and by saying the president should be removed from office following January 6.

At the same time, Trump has endorsed Geoff Diehl, who would be running against Baker in the 2022 primary.

So this is yet another example of the current state of the Republican Party.  It’s pathetic.

--In a surprise move, Rep. Devin Nunes announced his 10th term in Congress will be his last, the California Republican opting to retire at the end of the year to lead the media company being started by former President Trump.

Nunes will leave the House after being “presented with a new opportunity to fight for the most important issues I believe in,” he said in a statement on Instagram.

In a release from the Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), Donald Trump said: “Devin understands that we must stop the liberal media and Big Tech from destroying the freedoms that make America great.  America is ready for TRUTH Social and the end to censorship and political discrimination.”

Nunes said in his own statement: “The time has come to reopen the Internet and allow for the free flow of ideas and expression without censorship.  The United States of America made the dream of the Internet a reality, and it will be an American company that restores the dream.”

Oh brother.

Nunes’ close relationship with Trump has cut into his popularity in the district.  While Trump won Nunes’ district in 2016, 53% to 41% over Hillary Clinton, Nunes faced tough challenges in 2018 and 2020, cutting his wins to single digits.  A proposed California redistricting plan would not be helpful to him as well.

--Former Senator David Perdue is challenging Georgia Governor Brian Kemp in next year’s election, opening a new Republican Party rift in the battleground state that handed Democrats their current Senate majority.

Perdue was recruited to run for governor by Donald Trump after Kemp refused to help block November 2020 election results in the state that contributed to Joe Biden’s victory.  Perdue now says he wouldn’t have certified the election.

The Kemp-Perdue primary winner could face off against Stacey Abrams, who announced last week she would run for the Democratic Party’s nomination, in her second bid for office; Abrams having lost a close election to Brian Kemp.

Perdue was defeated by Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff in a runoff last January, with fellow Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler losing her runoff to Democrat Raphael Warnock and suddenly the Senate was 50-50, Vice President Harris the tiebreaker.

--Bob Dole, RIP

Leaders from across the political spectrum offered tributes this week to Bob Dole, hailing him as a war hero and statesman who dedicated his life to public service.

Dole died from lung cancer on Sunday, age 98.

President Biden said on Twitter: “He had an unerring sense of integrity and honor.”  The president cited Dole’s “legacy of decency, dignity, good humor, and patriotism.”

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said in a statement that Dole’s “lifetime of service was rooted in a simple mission: looking out for his neighbors.” McConnell added: “Bob Dole lived the kind of full, rich, and deeply honorable American life that will be impossible for any tribute today to fully capture.”

Growing up in Russell, Kansas, during the Dust Bowl and Great Depression, Dole served customers at a soda fountain and his service continued as part of the Army’s 10th Mountain Division during World War II, suffering grievous wounds in Italy shortly before the end of the war, earning two Purple Hearts and a Bronze Star.  He needed nine operations and 39 months to recover from injuries that destroyed his right shoulder, paralyzed his arm, broke vertebrae, riddled his body with shrapnel and cost him a kidney.

Dole represented Kansas in the House of Representatives from 1961 to 1969, and then the U.S. Senate from 1969 to 1996, including as Senate Republican leader.  He lost the 1996 presidential election to incumbent Bill Clinton badly, 49.2% to 40.7% (8.4% to Ross Perot), and in the Electoral College, 379-159.

After losing to Clinton, Dole made a series of appearances, including on David Letterman’s late-night comedy show, then Jay Leno’s, a bit on “Saturday Night Live” and “Murphy Brown, and television commercials for Pepsi, Dunkin’ Donuts and Viagra.  Dole said he made the appearances to show that there is life after politics and that “losing an election does not mean losing your sense of humor.”

During a sentimental tour of Kansas in 2014, Dole said: “My main concern about those (2016) elections is that, well, I just hope I’m still around to vote then. If not…I plan to vote absentee.”

George F. Will / Washington Post

“His voice, flat as the prairie from which he rose to prominence, proclaimed what Bob Dole was: a Midwesterner, a man of the middle of the country and of the political spectrum. Like another Midwesterner – a contemporary – Hubert Humphrey, Dole was a senator who came agonizingly close to seizing the presidential brass ring of politics….

“If he had won the Republicans’ 1988 nomination, he almost certainly would have won the White House because Americans then wanted something more like a third Ronald Reagan term than a first Michael Dukakis term. Dole probably would have won that nomination if he had won New Hampshire’s primary.  And he could have, if he had campaigned as what he really wasn’t – a fervent conservative. He might have won anti-tax New Hampshire if he had made a ‘no new taxes’ pledge, the making of which later helped his opponent, George H.W. Bush, win the presidency, and the breaking of which helped Bush lose it. 

“Dole finally won a Republican nomination too late, in 1996.  He then would have been the oldest person – 73 – ever elected to a first term.

“Dole was never one of those puffed-up politicians who constantly act as though they are unveiling statues of themselves. He had a Midwestern cheerfulness – see Ronald Reagan, of Dixon, Ill. – about the United States’ possibilities, but his mordant, sometimes acidic wit fit a man with some grievances against life’s close calls.

“If he had been a few yards away from where he was on that Italian hill on April 14, 1945, or if the war in Europe had ended 25 years earlier, he would have escaped the severe wound that left him in pain the rest of his years.  A few thousand more Ohio and Mississippi votes in 1976 would have made Dole vice president….

“In one of his three campaigns for the Republican presidential nomination, an earnest grade school pupil asked him a question about acid rain.  Dole’s full answer was: ‘That bill’s in markup.’  The child must have looked dazed, but Dole could not help himself.  Long acculturation in the legislative branch rendered him fluent in, but only in, Senate-speak, a dialect unintelligible to normal Americans.  Uncomfortable with a text, he spoke easily only in the conversational, sometimes cryptic discourse by which colleagues in a small, face-to-face legislative setting communicate with each other.

“List the most important American public servants who never became president.  Two, perhaps the top two, were named Marshall: John, the chief justice for 34 years, and George, soldier and diplomat. Others were jurists – Roger Taney and Earl Warren, were, Lord knows, consequential – as were some legislators, such as the Great Triumvirate: Henry Clay, Daniel Webster and John Calhoun.

“But few congressional careers loom large.  This is because legislative accomplishments are collaborative, the result of blurry compromises presented in pastels rather than sharp pictures painted in bold strokes of primary colors.  Dole’s legislative life was the political life as Plutarch described it:

“ ‘They are wrong who think that politics is like an ocean voyage or a military campaign, something to be done with some particular end in view, something which leaves us as soon as that end is reached.  It is not a public chore, to be got over with.  It is a way of life.  It is the life of a domesticated political and social creature who is born with a love for public life, with a desire for honor, with a feeling for his fellows.’

“The melancholy dimension of Dole’s life was not that he failed to attain the presidency, for which he was not well-suited, but that in 1996 in quest of it, he left the Senate he loved and where he excelled.  When Democrats considered offering their 1948 presidential nomination to Eisenhower, taciturn Sam Rayburn, House speaker, said of him: ‘Good man, but wrong business.’  Rayburn’s words were wrong about Ike but would have been right about Dole the presidential aspirant.  Two of those words are especially apposite: good man.”

Former Democratic Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey said of his colleague when Dole left the chamber in June 1996: “The Senate does not reward extremes.” (Dole), Bradley continued, “knew how to use power because he understood how to make things happen in the center of this institution.  And that is ultimately built on a couple of personal facts.  I mean, he always kept his word.  He listened very carefully.  He never held a grudge.”

Such praise from political rivals is seldom found today.

The Wall Street Journal editorialized:

“Dole well represented the generation of Americans who won World War II, defeated Soviet Communism during the Cold War, and maintained a steady, constraining hand on government that made the last half of the 20th century the most prosperous in world history.

“Bob Dole spent his later years championing veterans’ interests and raising money for the World War II Memorial in Washington.  A good soldier and a good man.”

You saw “good man” a lot in all the tributes to Bob Dole.

In his own words….

Bob Dole / Washington Post…written early in 2021, to be published around the time of his death….

“Shortly after I was elected Senate majority leader in November 1984, a friend stopped by the Capitol to offer his congratulations.  We toured my office, reviewing pictures of past majority leaders and admiring two portraits of personal heroes: Abraham Lincoln and Dwight D. Eisenhower.

“Something about the place, steeped in such distinguished history, touched a common nerve in us. We fell silent for a time, when a smile crossed my friend’s face.  With wonder, he said, ‘Imagine a kid from Russell, Kansas, having an office like this.’

“My home at birth was a three-room house.  I grew up during the Dust Bowl, when so many of us helplessly watched our livelihoods blow away with the wind.  I have always felt humbled to live in a nation that would allow my unlikely story to unfold.

“Many nights during my time as majority leader, I would step out on my office balcony overlooking the National Mall and be reminded of what made my journey possible.  Facing me were monuments to our nation’s first commander in chief, the author of our Declaration of Independence, and the president who held our union together.  In the distance were the countless graves of those who gave their lives so that we could live free.

“That inspiring view came back to me as I watched the Jan. 6 riots at the Capitol.  I imagined the view of those monuments and headstones obscured by clouds of tear gas.  I thought about the symbol of our democracy consumed by anger, hatred and violence.

“There has been a lot of talk about what it will take to heal our country.  We have heard many of our leaders profess ‘bipartisanship.’  But we must remember that bipartisanship is the minimum we should expect from ourselves.

“America has never achieved greatness when Republicans and Democrats simply managed to work together or tolerate each other. We have overcome our biggest challenges only when we focused on our shared values and experiences.  These common ties form much stronger bonds than political parties.

“I cannot pretend that I have not been a loyal champion for my party, but I always served my country best when I did so first and foremost as an American. I fought for veterans benefits not as a Republican but as someone who witnessed the heroism of our service members firsthand.  I advocated for those with disabilities not as a member of the GOP but as someone who personally understood the limitations of a world without basic accommodations.  I stood up for those going hungry not as a leader in my party but as someone who had seen too many folks sweat through a hard day’s work without being able to put dinner on the table.

“When we prioritize principles over party and humanity over personal legacy, we accomplish far more as a nation.  By leading with a shared faith in each other, we become America at its best; a beacon of hope, a source of comfort in crisis, a shield against those who threaten freedom.

“Our nation’s recent political challenges remind us that our standing as the leader of the free world is not simply destiny.  It is a deliberate choice that every generation must make and work toward.  We cannot do it divided.

“I do have hope that our country will rediscover its greatness.  Perhaps it is the optimism that comes from spending 98 years as a proud American. I grew up in what others have called the Greatest Generation.  Together, we put an end to Nazi tyranny.  Our nation confronted Jim Crow, split the atom, eliminated the anguish of polio, planted our flag on the moon and tore down the Berlin Wall.  Rising above partisanship, we made historic gains in feeding the hungry and housing the homeless.  To make a more perfect union, we swung open the doors of economic opportunity for women who were ready to rise to their fullest potential and shattered glass ceilings behind them.

“Our nation has certainly faced periods of division.  But at the end of the day, we have always found ways to come together.

“We can find that unity again.

“In 1951, when I was newly elected to the Kansas House of Representatives, a reporter asked me what I had on my agenda.  I said, ‘Well, I’m going to sit back and watch for a few days, and then I’ll stand up for what I think is right.’  In 1996, when I left public office for the final time, I announced the same plans, to sit back for a few days, then start standing up for what I thought was right.

“After sharing these thoughts, I plan to once again return to my seat to sit back and watch. Though this time, I will count on tomorrow’s leaders to stand up for what is right for America.  With full optimism and faith in our nation’s humanity, I know they will.”

Dole then drafted a final op-ed for USA TODAY, which he began drafting in October and finishing Nov. 3.

“Dwight Eisenhower said America is best described by the word ‘freedom.’  It’s an all-purpose sort of word, one that we salute like the flag on the Fourth of July, even if no two of us define it in exactly the same way.  This gives rise to a perpetual tug of war between those on the left who look to an activist government to broker economic security and a level playing field without which democratic capitalism can degenerate into mere survival of the fittest, and those on the right who pursue freedom from – especially from heavy-handed dictation, stifling taxes or overregulation that can smother individual initiative and discourage social mobility.

“Conservatives put their faith in the marketplace, even while conceding its imperfections….

“And that is why teamwork is needed in Washington now more than ever.  During my years in Congress, Democrats and Republicans were political combatants, but we were also friends. I learned that it is difficult to get anything done unless you can compromise – not your principles but your willingness to see the other side.  Those who suggest that compromise is a sign of weakness misunderstand the fundamental strength of our democracy….

“During my early years in the Senate, eager to demonstrate that conservatives could be legislative innovators, I supported Richard Nixon’s small government approach to national health insurance and welfare reform.  Later I worked across the aisle and with the George H.W. Bush White House to pass the Americans with Disabilities Act.  Finally, nothing in public life gave me more satisfaction than teaming up with my Democratic colleague, Sen. George McGovern, to combat hunger in this country and abroad.  We set aside past political battles because putting food on the table is the least partisan act imaginable….

“President Harry Truman famously observed that the chief function of the modern presidency is persuasion.  But what if our leaders, whatever their politics, find themselves shouting into the wind in a culture incapable of working across a partisan political divide?

“Meaningful change comes to the country when everyone puts aside their party label and works for the good of the country….

“In Congress, as in life, it always helps to have an eye for the big picture.  These deep-seeded political divisions are playing out within each party, but with the Democrats now in control, it is especially evident as I watch from the sidelines of this tug of war between progressives and more moderates.  I can speak from experience on this as well.  When votes came and we lost, we did not have time for hard feelings. The next day needed to be business as usual as we moved on to the next battle….

“None of this is easy – any more than finding a definition of freedom with which 330 million Americans can agree.  This much we know.  Too many of us sacrificed too much in defending that freedom from foreign adversaries to allow our democracy to crumble under a state of infighting that grows more unacceptable by the day.  Take it from Eisenhower and the dwindling band of brothers who fought under his command.  ‘Together we must learn how to compose differences, not with arms, but with intellect and decent purpose.’

“And take it from me: Our history is rich with political debate and deep divisions, but collectively we share a common purpose for a better America.  We cannot let political differences stand in the way of that common good.”

---

--CNN anchor Chris Cuomo was fired on Saturday, four days after being suspended over information contained in a trove of documents released by New York State Attorney General Letitia James from her investigation into the sexual harassment allegations that forced brother Andrew Cuomo to resign in August.

Lawyers representing CNN told the network that the documents gave it legal grounds to fire the “Cuomo Prime Time” star for contacting “sources” about planned news reports regarding his brother, as well as trying to dig up dirt on at least one of Andrew’s accusers, sources said.

Tuesday, CNN President Jeff Zucker said the network won’t pay Cuomo a severance.  Zucker added he wished Cuomo had taken a leave of absence in May when allegations that he participated in strategy sessions with his brother first surfaced.

Cuomo also lost a publishing deal for a coming book.

Cuomo will no doubt now sue over the remainder of his four-year contract, which was reportedly worth $6 million annually, leaving between $18 million and $20 million that he would be owed.

But CNN reportedly has “no intention of paying Chris Cuomo a penny.” An insider told CNN that “If he gets a settlement, there would be an uproar.”

Another source said, “CNN has a standard morality clause in their contract that says if the employee does anything of disrepute, they can be immediately fired.”

--Speaking of Letitia James, the New York AG announced she was seeking former President Trump’s deposition as part of the state’s civil fraud investigation into his business and its practices.

James is seeking his testimony on Jan. 7, according to the Washington Post, as James is looking into whether widespread fraud “permeated the Trump Organization,” a source told the paper.

James, along with Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance, are jointly investigating the Trump Organization’s business practices.  Earlier this year, authorities indicted the Trump Organization and its chief financial officer Allen Weisselberg.

Trump, who has not personally been accused of any crimes or wrongdoing, has called the charges politically motivated.

So then after AG James made this announcement Thursday, she said she is suspending her run for governor to run for reelection as AG.

“I have come to the conclusion that I must continue my work as attorney general,” she wrote on Twitter. “There are a number of important investigations and cases that are underway, and I intend to finish the job.”

--Well then (channeling the voice of Burl Ives in narrating the adventures of Rudolph the Red-Nosed Trumpster, err, Reindeer), Republican Rep. Liz Cheney tweeted the following Thursday:

“Thread for those interested in the @January6thCmte’s progress: The Committee has already met with nearly 300 witnesses; we hear from four more key figures in the investigation today. We are conducting multiple depositions and interviews every week.

“We have received exceptionally interesting and important documents from a number of witnesses, including Mark Meadows. He has turned over many texts from his private cell phone from January 6th.

“We have litigated and won Trump’s executive privilege case in Federal District Court. The Federal appellate Court has expedited the appeal, and we anticipate a ruling regarding many more Trump White House documents soon.

“The investigation is firing on all cylinders.

“Do not be misled: President Trump is trying to hide what happened on January 6th and to delay and obstruct.  We will not let that happen.

“The truth will come out.”

--Meanwhile, Trump suffered a major defeat on Thursday when a federal appeals court ruled against his effort to block the release of documents related to the January 6th attack.

Trump is going to appeal to the Supreme Court and this is going to be very interesting.

Trump and a clique of his close advisers have repeatedly engaged in legal action over the House Select Committee’s investigations, including refusing to cooperate with it.

But in a 3-0 decision, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia said there was a “unique legislative need” for documents the committee has requested but whose release Trump has sought to keep secret through executive privilege.

The appeals court ruled an injunction that has prevented the National Archives from turning over the documents will expire in two weeks, or when the Supreme Court rules on appeal from Trump, whichever is later.

President Biden had waved Trump’s executive privilege claims as the current officeholder.

In a 68-page ruling, Judge Patricia Ann Millett wrote: “On the record before us, former president Trump has provided no basis for this court to override President Biden’s judgment and the agreement and accommodations worked out between the political branches over these documents.”

The opinion continued: “Both branches agree that there is a unique legislative need for these documents, and that they are directly relevant to the committee’s inquiry into an attack on the legislative branch and its constitutional role in the peaceful transfer of power.”

The National Archives has said the records Trump wants to block include presidential diaries, visitor logs, speech drafts, handwritten notes “concerning the events of January 6th” from the files of his former chief of staff Mark Meadows, and “a draft executive order on the topic of election integrity.”

The Supreme Court, with the three justices appointed by Trump, would be asked to weigh the views of a former president versus those of the incumbent on the scope of executive privilege.

--The parents of a teenager suspected of a deadly school shooting in Michigan were arrested hours after going on the run.

James and Jennifer Crumbley were found unarmed hiding in a warehouse after a tip-off from someone who saw their car.

Their 15-year-old son, Ethan Crumbley, faces multiple counts of murder as an adult.

The three now sit in the same jail, the parents on suicide watch.

I’m biting my tongue again.

--Former “Empire” actor Jussie Smollett was convicted Thursday on five of six charges he staged an anti-gay, racist attack on himself nearly three years ago and then lied to Chicago police about it.

He was acquitted on one count.

The verdict came after a roughly one-week trial in which two brothers testified that Smollett recruited them to fake an attack on him near his home in downtown Chicago in January 2019.  Smollett repeatedly denied the claims. The brothers said Smollett orchestrated the hoax, telling them to put a noose around his neck and rough him up in view of a surveillance camera, and that he said he wanted video of the hoax made public via social media.

Smollett called the brothers “liars” and testified over two days about being the victim of what he said was a hate crime, telling the jury “there was no hoax.”

The brothers also testified that Smollett paid them $3,500 for faking the attack.

Smollett is a lying dirtball, and he’ll lose on appeal.

--What an awful tragedy in Mexico as a freight truck jammed with as many as 160 migrants tipped over and crashed into the base of a steel pedestrian bridge in southern Mexico.

The migrants inside the cargo trailer were flipped, tossed and crushed into a pile that mingled the living and the dead.

At least 53 died at last report.

--Fred Hiatt, a longtime foreign correspondent who in 2000 became the Washington Post’s editorial page editor and greatly expanded the global reach of the newspaper’s opinion writers in the era of 9/11, the election of Barack Obama and the destabilizing presidency of Donald Trump, died Dec. 6 at a hospital in New York City after suffering sudden cardiac arrest two weeks earlier.  He never regained consciousness but had been treated for heart ailments in the past.

Hiatt was one of my favorite opinion writers…balanced.  He didn’t write as much in recent years given his editorial page editor duties, but when he did I always made a point to read it.

--Denver shattered its 87-year-old record for the latest measurable snowfall set on Nov. 21, 1934, while Salt Lake City went snowless through November for only the second time since 1976.

Thankfully, both are receiving some snow, yesterday and today, the Rockies getting a decent amount, while southern California’s mountains received a bit of snow.

But La Nina is pushing storm tracks farther north into the Pacific Northwest and Canada.

California could, however, receive a big storm early next week.

---

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

We remember those who died on Pearl Harbor, 80 years ago, Dec. 7.

RIP, Bob Dole.

And God bless America.

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Gold $1783
Oil $71.96

Returns for the week 12/6-12/10

Dow Jones  +4.0%  [35970]
S&P 500  +3.8%  [4712]
S&P MidCap  +2.9%
Russell 2000  +2.4%
Nasdaq  +3.6%  [15630]

Returns for the period 1/1/21-12/10/21

Dow Jones  +17.5%
S&P 500  +25.5%
S&P MidCap  +20.5%
Russell 2000  +12.0%
Nasdaq  +21.3%

Bulls 39.8…sharp decline over two weeks, and a classic contrarian indicator.
Bears 25.3

Hang in there.  Get your booster.

Brian Trumbore

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