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05/15/2003

Britain's Defense Strategy Report, Part II

Continuing with our report on future trends and threats, as
identified by Britain’s Ministry of Defence and its Joint Doctrine
and Concepts Centre, following are some of the conclusions:

--“Overall, the developing world will not significantly close the
gap with the developed world. The extent of the disparity will
become ever clearer through the global media, potentially
exacerbating internal tensions, and encouraging dissatisfaction,
resentment, migration and even terrorism.”

--The USA will remain the key economic power, underpinning
continued military pre-eminence.”

--“China and India are likely to emerge as significant economic
powers (although great internal inequalities will remain),
increasing their military potential should they choose to develop
it.”

--“The US action following 11 September 2001 and its emerging
grand strategic doctrine have strengthened the claim to a right to
pre-emptive self-defence. Anticipatory action against other
states will remain more contentious than against non-state actors.
Other states may use US precedents to justify their own actions.”

--“The concept of what constitutes ‘threats to international peace
and security’ is likely to widen further to encompass extreme
humanitarian crises and terrorism. This, in turn, is likely to
provide greater opportunity for the legitimate use of force than
hitherto.”

--“NATO will remain the most enduring political/military
alliance, but in broadening its membership and co-operating with
Russia it will inevitably become more political and less military
in its orientation.”

--“The US will largely dictate the nature of international
relations. Even under pressure, the US will not be isolationist
but it will have the power to go it alone. It will be tempted to use
its predominance to act unilaterally, especially if its power
attracts further attacks. The US may foster a more multilateral
approach depending on the persuasiveness and usefulness of its
allies. Europe will remain important to US security and
prosperity, although Asia will increase in relative significance.”

--“Russia is likely to remain inwardly focused until at least 2015
and collapse will be a more significant security risk to the West
than resurgence. It will need ongoing Western economic
assistance to maintain economic growth and internal stability. Its
strategic weapons will be relied upon more than conventional
capabilities to guarantee against external threats.”

--“China will increase its political and military power in line with
its blossoming economy but is unlikely to exercise this globally
before 2015, remaining focused on domestic security and
regional threats.”

--“Japan may become increasingly autonomous from the US in
terms of its security policy, and more regionally assertive.”

--“India is likely to seek a more influential role as a regional
power on the back of economic growth, the political influence of
the second largest population, and its increasing military
capability.”

--“Organized crime is likely to widen in scope and increase in
scale, exploiting the slowness and disjointed nature of national
and international responses .Its perpetrators are likely to access
increasingly sophisticated weaponry to contest state attempts to
close down their operations.”

--“Terrorism is likely to become more widespread, extreme,
international and autonomous. It will remain a key challenge to
state power, particularly through its ability to use asymmetric
attacks to by-pass military security and attack states ‘at home.’”

--“Non-state actors are likely to acquire weapons of mass effect
before 2015 and will be much harder to deter than state
proliferators, making this a key security threat.”

--“Delayed-lethality and non-lethal weapons such as
electromagnetic pulse weapons, radiological and carcinogenic
chemical weapons are likely to offer new mass effect threats by
2015.”

--“Combat after 2015 may increasingly be shaped by the
implications of remote and autonomous systems. It is likely to
take place over a wider number of environments more frequently
including space, cyberspace and the electromagnetic spectrum.”

Those were but a few of the conclusions reached by the JDCC.
The panel also took a look at “shocks.”

“The benefit of strategic futures work is not that it predicts the
future, which is unpredictable, or enables organizations to
control it. It is about rehearsing possibilities so one is better able
to respond if they happen.”

“We need to expect the unexpected. We need to plan to be
shocked.”

So what are just a few of the JDCC’s potential shocks? Even I
hadn’t thought of some of these.

--“The Gulf Stream could be switched off dramatically cooling
the UK.”

--“A breakthrough in energy technology such as fusion power
would transform the world economy.”

--“Outbreak of a new virulent infectious disease quickly kills
millions.”

--“Christian revival in the West prompts a reverse of
secularization.”

--“A biomedical breakthrough slows human aging, leading to
almost unmanageable social consequences.”

--“Solar activity disrupting or destroying US/NATO space
systems during key operations.”

--“Global collapse of financial system undermines confidence in
capitalism.”

--“A prolonged economic downturn reverses globalization
through a new wave of protectionism.”

--“Deflation replaces inflation as the primary economic demon.”

--“Significant and prolonged disruption to the City of London
would have a catastrophic impact on the UK economy.”

--“Action by the EU to protect national defence industries could
provoke retaliation by USA, threatening UK access to US
technology and equipment.”

--“International convention declares nuclear weapons to be
unlawful.”

--“UK and France lose seats as Permanent Members of the UN
Security Council.”

--“Future US administration withdraws co-operation from
international bodies such as the UN and NATO.”

--“A Russia-China-India alliance to counter what they perceive
to be a hegemonic USA.”

--“A long term strongly unilateralist US posture would
significantly alter the international order, potentially splitting the
EU from America, and causing others to form new coalitions to
oppose US power.”

--“China becomes a democracy.”

--“Arab states unite to invade Israel and ‘liberate’ Palestine.”

--“Israel uses weapons of mass effect.”

“Hott Spotts” will return next week.

Brian Trumbore



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05/15/2003

Britain's Defense Strategy Report, Part II

Continuing with our report on future trends and threats, as
identified by Britain’s Ministry of Defence and its Joint Doctrine
and Concepts Centre, following are some of the conclusions:

--“Overall, the developing world will not significantly close the
gap with the developed world. The extent of the disparity will
become ever clearer through the global media, potentially
exacerbating internal tensions, and encouraging dissatisfaction,
resentment, migration and even terrorism.”

--The USA will remain the key economic power, underpinning
continued military pre-eminence.”

--“China and India are likely to emerge as significant economic
powers (although great internal inequalities will remain),
increasing their military potential should they choose to develop
it.”

--“The US action following 11 September 2001 and its emerging
grand strategic doctrine have strengthened the claim to a right to
pre-emptive self-defence. Anticipatory action against other
states will remain more contentious than against non-state actors.
Other states may use US precedents to justify their own actions.”

--“The concept of what constitutes ‘threats to international peace
and security’ is likely to widen further to encompass extreme
humanitarian crises and terrorism. This, in turn, is likely to
provide greater opportunity for the legitimate use of force than
hitherto.”

--“NATO will remain the most enduring political/military
alliance, but in broadening its membership and co-operating with
Russia it will inevitably become more political and less military
in its orientation.”

--“The US will largely dictate the nature of international
relations. Even under pressure, the US will not be isolationist
but it will have the power to go it alone. It will be tempted to use
its predominance to act unilaterally, especially if its power
attracts further attacks. The US may foster a more multilateral
approach depending on the persuasiveness and usefulness of its
allies. Europe will remain important to US security and
prosperity, although Asia will increase in relative significance.”

--“Russia is likely to remain inwardly focused until at least 2015
and collapse will be a more significant security risk to the West
than resurgence. It will need ongoing Western economic
assistance to maintain economic growth and internal stability. Its
strategic weapons will be relied upon more than conventional
capabilities to guarantee against external threats.”

--“China will increase its political and military power in line with
its blossoming economy but is unlikely to exercise this globally
before 2015, remaining focused on domestic security and
regional threats.”

--“Japan may become increasingly autonomous from the US in
terms of its security policy, and more regionally assertive.”

--“India is likely to seek a more influential role as a regional
power on the back of economic growth, the political influence of
the second largest population, and its increasing military
capability.”

--“Organized crime is likely to widen in scope and increase in
scale, exploiting the slowness and disjointed nature of national
and international responses .Its perpetrators are likely to access
increasingly sophisticated weaponry to contest state attempts to
close down their operations.”

--“Terrorism is likely to become more widespread, extreme,
international and autonomous. It will remain a key challenge to
state power, particularly through its ability to use asymmetric
attacks to by-pass military security and attack states ‘at home.’”

--“Non-state actors are likely to acquire weapons of mass effect
before 2015 and will be much harder to deter than state
proliferators, making this a key security threat.”

--“Delayed-lethality and non-lethal weapons such as
electromagnetic pulse weapons, radiological and carcinogenic
chemical weapons are likely to offer new mass effect threats by
2015.”

--“Combat after 2015 may increasingly be shaped by the
implications of remote and autonomous systems. It is likely to
take place over a wider number of environments more frequently
including space, cyberspace and the electromagnetic spectrum.”

Those were but a few of the conclusions reached by the JDCC.
The panel also took a look at “shocks.”

“The benefit of strategic futures work is not that it predicts the
future, which is unpredictable, or enables organizations to
control it. It is about rehearsing possibilities so one is better able
to respond if they happen.”

“We need to expect the unexpected. We need to plan to be
shocked.”

So what are just a few of the JDCC’s potential shocks? Even I
hadn’t thought of some of these.

--“The Gulf Stream could be switched off dramatically cooling
the UK.”

--“A breakthrough in energy technology such as fusion power
would transform the world economy.”

--“Outbreak of a new virulent infectious disease quickly kills
millions.”

--“Christian revival in the West prompts a reverse of
secularization.”

--“A biomedical breakthrough slows human aging, leading to
almost unmanageable social consequences.”

--“Solar activity disrupting or destroying US/NATO space
systems during key operations.”

--“Global collapse of financial system undermines confidence in
capitalism.”

--“A prolonged economic downturn reverses globalization
through a new wave of protectionism.”

--“Deflation replaces inflation as the primary economic demon.”

--“Significant and prolonged disruption to the City of London
would have a catastrophic impact on the UK economy.”

--“Action by the EU to protect national defence industries could
provoke retaliation by USA, threatening UK access to US
technology and equipment.”

--“International convention declares nuclear weapons to be
unlawful.”

--“UK and France lose seats as Permanent Members of the UN
Security Council.”

--“Future US administration withdraws co-operation from
international bodies such as the UN and NATO.”

--“A Russia-China-India alliance to counter what they perceive
to be a hegemonic USA.”

--“A long term strongly unilateralist US posture would
significantly alter the international order, potentially splitting the
EU from America, and causing others to form new coalitions to
oppose US power.”

--“China becomes a democracy.”

--“Arab states unite to invade Israel and ‘liberate’ Palestine.”

--“Israel uses weapons of mass effect.”

“Hott Spotts” will return next week.

Brian Trumbore