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03/16/2024

For the week 3/11-3/15

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,300

Russians are going to the polls, Friday through Sunday, in a preordained, manipulated vote ensuring another six years for Vladimir Putin.  If he completes the term he would overtake Josef Stalin to become Russia’s longest-serving ruler since Empress Catherine the Great in the 18th century.

Thus far, the election is not going as smoothly as Putin would like it to, as he’s accused Ukraine of aiming to disrupt the vote by shelling Russia’s (self-declared) western regions as well as an attempt by Ukrainian proxies to cross into two other Russian regions, as I describe further below.

“These enemy strikes will not remain unpunished,” a visibly angry Putin said at a meeting of Russia’s Security Council, which includes military and spy chiefs. [Reuters]

There are also reports of dye being poured into ballot boxes, according to Russian media.

Yulia Navalnaya / Washington Post

“On Feb. 16, one month before the scheduled ‘presidential elections’ in Russia, my husband, Alexei Navalny, was murdered in prison on Vladimir Putin’s direct order. I never wanted to be a politician, I never wanted to speak from the rostrum or write for international media. But Putin left me no other choice. Therefore, I want to tell you a few important things that Alexei had been trying to say all these years.

“To defeat Putin, or at least seriously punish him, one must realize who he is.  Unfortunately, too many people in the West still see him as a legitimate political leader, argue about his ideology and look for political logic in his actions.  This is a big mistake that breeds new mistakes and helps Putin to deceive his opponents again and again.

“Putin is not a politician, he’s a gangster. Alexei Navalny became famous in Russia and hated by Putin precisely because, from the beginning of his fight, he openly described Putin and his allies as gangsters who had seized and used power only for their own enrichment and to fulfill their personal ambitions.

“Look at Putin as the leader of a mafia group. You will grasp his brutality, cynicism, penchant for violence, fondness for ostentatious luxury – and his willingness to lie and kill.  All his talks about religion, history, culture and politics might mislead Westerners.   But in Russia, everyone knows that gangsters have always loved to flaunt large crosses, pose in churches, and present themselves as fighters for higher justice and traditional values, which in their understanding boil down to a professional criminal’s ruthless code of conduct.

“Look at Putin as a mafia boss and you will understand how to punish him and hasten his end. Status is very important to criminal leaders – both within their gangs and in the outside world. Putin seized power in Russia, where he can declare himself the legitimate president or even crown himself as heir to the Russian czars. But why do democratic countries continue to recognize his criminal authority as legitimate?  Why do fairly elected world leaders put themselves on the same level as a criminal who has for decades falsified elections, killed, imprisoned or forced out of the country all his critics, and now has unleashed a bloody war in Europe by attacking Ukraine?

“I’m not promising that refusing to recognize the results of the Russian presidential elections this weekend would lead to the instant collapse of the Putin government.  But it would be an important signal to civil society in Russia and the elites still loyal to Putin, as well as to the world, that Russia is ruled not by a president recognized by all, but by someone who is despised and publicly condemned.  Only then will those who remain loyal to Putin start to see that the one way to return to normal economic and political life is to get rid of him.

“To criminal leaders, money is crucial.  Putin is indifferent to the suffering of ordinary people both in Ukraine and in Russia.  He doesn’t care about Russia’s economy – as long as there is money enough to sustain the army and the security services and to fill his own pockets and those of his associates. The only thing that truly hurts Putin is loss of income.  Though it might be difficult to target him directly at this point, it’s possible to deprive his inner circle, his representatives and decision-makers, of their ill-gotten gains.

“Deprive gangsters of their wealth, and they will lose their loyalty to their leader.  This is why I call for the maximum expansion and careful enforcement of sanctions against all more or less prominent Putin-allied politicians, so-called businessmen, civil servants and law enforcement officials.  By depriving thousands of influential figures of their capital and assets, you lay the groundwork for internal divisions – and ultimately the collapse of the regime.

“Extensive support for Ukraine and its army in the fight against Putin’s unjustified aggression has become the natural moral choice for Western countries. A military defeat for Putin in Ukraine should push his government to the brink of collapse.  However, there have been cases in history where defeat hasn’t led to a dictator’s fall.  Saddam Hussein’s defeat in Kuwait, for instance, did not end his rule; Hussein and his gang terrorized the people of Iraq and neighboring countries for another decade.  To ensure that Putin’s rule doesn’t survive another crisis, including those caused by military setbacks in Ukraine, it is essential to support the forces that continue to resist from within Russia....

“My husband’s most recent appeal to Russians was to participate in the ‘Noon Against Putin’ campaign. He asked all of Putin’s opponents to come to polling stations at noon on March 17, election day.  The goal is not to influence the voting results, which will be falsified anyway, and it is not to support any of Putin’s puppets allowed on the ballot.  Alexei wanted this to be a nationwide protest, emphasizing the illegitimacy of Putin’s election and the resistance of Russian civil society.

“I call on political leaders of the West to help all Russian citizens who stand up against Putin’s gang. I urge you to finally hear the voice of free Russia and take a principled stand against him – to not recognize the results of the falsified elections, to not recognize Putin as the legitimate president of Russia.

“The world must finally realize that Putin is not who he wants to appear to be. He is a usurper, a tyrant, a war criminal – and a murderer.”

---

FBI Director Christopher Wray, testifying before the House Intelligence Committee on Tuesday, said terrorist threats toward the U.S. have reached a “whole other level” since the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas on Israel and the war that followed. 

Wray told Congress: “You’ve seen a veritable rogue’s gallery of foreign terrorist organizations calling for terrorist attacks against us in a way that we haven’t seen in a long, long time.”

---

Israel and Hamas....

--President Joe Biden said Saturday in an interview with MSNBC that he believes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is “hurting Israel more than helping Israel” in how he is approaching the war against Hamas in Gaza.

Biden expressed support for Israel’s right to pursue Hamas after the Oct. 7 attack but said of Netanyahu that “he must pay more attention to the innocent lives being lost as a consequence of the actions taken.”

Biden has been warning for months that Israel is losing international support over the mounting civilian casualties, noting in the interview that “it’s contrary to what Israel stands for.  And I think it’s a big mistake.”  The president also said an Israeli invasion of Rafah, where more than 1.3 million Palestinians are sheltering, is a “red line” for him, but he didn’t say he’d cut off weapons like the Iron Dome missile interceptors.

“It is a red line,” he said, when asked about Rafah, “but I’m never going to leave Israel. The defense of Israel is still critical, so there’s no red line where I’m going to cut off all weapons so they don’t have the Iron Dome to protect them.”

Israel has said that, barring a total surrender by Hamas, it has to launch an assault on Rafah because it’s the last bastion of the Iran-backed group.  Israeli military officials estimate 5,000 to 8,000 Hamas fighters are holed up there.  Israel indicated it would be prepared to move in the city during Ramadan if there’s no truce.

--So, Sunday, Netanyahu said Israelis overwhelmingly support his policies and rejected President Biden’s assertion that the war in Gaza was hurting Israel.

“If he meant by that that I’m pursuing private policies against the majority, the wish of the majority of Israelis, and that this is hurting the interests of Israel, then he’s wrong on both counts,” the prime minister said in a social media post Sunday.  “The vast majority are united as never before.”

Netanyahu said Israelis believe that if the country doesn’t fight, it will see a repetition of the Oct. 7 attack.  That, he said, would be “bad for Israel, bad for the Palestinians, bad for the future of peace in the Middle East.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Mr. Biden’s vocal criticism of Israel can’t be separated from his desire to appease his party’s increasingly insistent anti-Israel wing.  He wants to avoid a protest spectacle at the Democratic convention in August, and he’s worried about losing Michigan as young people and Arab-Americans defect.  It sounds like his Israel policy increasingly runs through Dearborn, Michigan....

“There are costs to this Dearborn strategy toward Israel – not least its message to Hamas and its backers in Iran that their strategy of putting civilians in harm’s way is working politically.  Why agree to a hostage swap if their current strategy is driving a wedge between Israel and the U.S.?

“Mr. Biden’s red-line threats don’t help Israel or his political standing at home.  The best way he can help himself politically is to let Israel win the war as rapidly as possible.”

--A ship taking almost 200 tons of food to Gaza left a port in Cyprus early on Tuesday, in a pilot project to open a new sea route of aid to a population on the brink of famine.  The charity ship Open Arms was towing a barge containing flour, rice and protein. The ship belongs to a Spanish charity of the same name. 

This is a long process.  Some have said because of the heavy barge, it could take three days to arrive at a location not disclosed, and at a dock not exactly built.

The mission, mostly funded by the UAE, is being organized by World Central Kitchen, while the Spanish charity supplies the ship.

“Our goal is to establish a maritime highway of boats and barges stocked with millions of meals continuously headed towards Gaza,” said WCK founder Jose Andres and CEO Erin Gore in a statement.

The ship got to the coast of Gaza Friday.

--Hezbollah fired about 100 Katyusha rockets at northern Israel on Tuesday, the heaviest barrage since October.  The Lebanese militia group said its rockets were a response to an Israeli airstrike Monday night in Baalbek in northeastern Lebanon.  I’ve been to Baalbek (and got out of there as quickly as I entered), a major Hezbollah stronghold.  Israel then retaliated later Tuesday with more strikes against two Hezbollah military command centers and weapons depots, also in Baalbek, which residents of the area say had been used to support its war efforts in Syria.  Israel said the Monday strike in Baalbek was retaliation for drones dispatched to the Golan Heights.

My friend in Beirut, Michael Young, told me last fall the conflict wouldn’t spread, but this week’s action wasn’t a good sign.

--David Ignatius / Washington Post...on the Biden-Netanyahu rift:

“A deeper disagreement [than the prospects for an invasion of Rafah] is about whether Netanyahu and his right-wing government really have united the country behind a clear endgame for the conflict.  U.S. intelligence analysts were openly skeptical of Netanyahu’s leadership prospects in their annual threat assessment, delivered to Congress this week.

“‘Netanyahu’s viability as a leader as well as his governing coalition of far-right and ultraorthodox parties that pursued hardline policies on Palestinian and security issues may be in jeopardy,’ the threat assessment noted.  ‘Distrust of Netanyahu’s ability to rule has deepened and broadened. ...A different, more moderate government is a possibility.’

“That’s unusually blunt language for a public intelligence report, and Israeli officials protested what they saw as an effort to meddle in Israeli internal politics by, in effect, ‘weaponizing’ the intelligence reporting.  Netanyahu’s team was already peeved about what it saw as an attempt by Vice President Harris to drive a wedge into Israeli politics when she said on CBS News on Sunday: ‘It’s important to distinguish and to not conflate the Israeli government with the Israeli people.’

“What’s happening here is that long-standing private disputes are becoming public.  For months, administration officials have explored ways they might prod other Israeli leaders, such as former army chief of staff Benny Gantz, to challenge Netanyahu, who polls show is deeply unpopular at home.  But trying to steer political outcomes with a democratic ally can easily backfire.

“The most fundamental disagreement is about the state of the war itself.  Netanyahu speaks as though victory is close. That’s why he wants to take Rafah soon and, in his mind, be done with it.  But U.S. officials think Israel is overestimating the damage it has done to Hamas, and doubt that Netanyahu still has a pathway for securing Gaza and stabilizing the region, even if he demolishes the four battalions in Rafah.

“Here, again, the U.S. intelligence community offered a pointed assessment in Monday’s testimony: ‘Israel probably will face lingering armed resistance from Hamas for years to come, and the military will struggle to neutralize Hamas’ underground infrastructure.’

“Israeli officials offer detailed statistics to back their claim that the war has been effective.  When the fighting began, Hamas and other militias had about 35,000 fighters; of those, more than 25,000 have been killed, captured or injured, the officials said. Of the smaller subset of Hamas regular fighters, they said 12,000 have been taken off the battlefield, including about 60 percent of battalion commanders.

“U.S. intelligence estimates project ‘far fewer’ Hamas casualties, a U.S. official said.  That’s in part because the United States counts battlefield casualties differently.  But there’s a stark difference between Israeli and American evaluations of the campaign.

“The tunnel war has been the most vexing part of the Gaza assault.  Israeli officials say they spent weeks devising tactics to attack a vast network of zigs and zags that they estimate is 380 miles long, all within a territory just 25 miles long and up to 7 ½ miles wide.  Israeli officials say they’ve destroyed about 60 percent of Hamas’ command-and-control facilities in the tunnels and 90 percent of its buried arsenal of rockets, which totaled 15,000 to 20,000 when the war began.

“But Israel officials concede they’ve only begun destroying Hamas’ underground empire.  Less than 30 percent of the tunnels have been captured, several officials said.  And even now, Hamas still is operating smuggling tunnels into Egypt.

“Finally, on the baseline question of what Gaza will look like ‘the day after,’ the U.S. and Israeli officials agree there is still no clear answer. That’s one reason Biden mistrusts Netanyahu. The White House doubts the Israeli leader has a sound strategy for ending a conflict that has brutalized Israel, has had a shattering effect on Palestinian civilians and is increasingly harmful to U.S. interests around the world.”

Thursday, Senate Majority Leader Schumer delivered a pointed speech on the Senate floor excoriating Benjamin Netanyahu as a major obstacle to peace in the Middle East and calling for new leadership in Israel.  A rather extraordinary statement by an American politician against a duly elected democratic leader, and ally.

“I believe in his heart, his highest priority is the security of Israel,” said Schumer, the highest-ranking Jewish elected official in the U.S.  “However, I also believe Prime Minister Netanyahu has lost his way by allowing his political survival to take precedence over the best interests of Israel.”

Schumer added: “He has been too willing to tolerate the civilian toll in Gaza, which is pushing support for Israel worldwide to historic lows.  Israel cannot survive if it becomes a pariah.”

And: “At this critical juncture, I believe a new election is the only way to allow for a healthy and open decision-making process about the future of Israel, at a time when so many Israelis have lost their confidence in the vision and direction of their government,” Schumer said, noting that a majority of the Israeli public “will recognize the need for change.”

While the Majority Leader’s speech was the latest reflection of the growing dissatisfaction among Democrats, it was totally inappropriate for Schumer to make such a statement, in his position, so publicly. 

Schumer asserted he wasn’t trying to dictate any electoral outcome in Israel, but that’s hardly how it sounded.

--Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell lashed out at Schumer immediately on the Senate floor, saying, “Either we respect their decisions or we disrespect their democracy.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) called Schumer’s speech “inappropriate.”

“It’s just plain wrong for an American leader to play such a divisive role in Israeli politics while our closest ally in the region is in an existential battle for its very survival,” Johnson said.

Netanyahu’s Likud party rejected Schumer’s call for new elections, saying Israel was “not a banana republic” and that Netanyahu’s policy had wide public support.

“Contrary to Schumer’s words, the Israeli public supports a total victory over Hamas, rejects any international dictates to establish a Palestinian terrorist state, and opposes the return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza,” the Likud statement said.

“Senator Schumer is expected to respect Israel’s elected government and not undermine it. This is always true, and even more so in wartime.”

--Friday, Israel described the latest proposals for a hostage deal by Hamas as unrealistic but said a delegation would leave for Qatar to discuss Israel’s position on a potential agreement.  A statement from the prime minister’s office said Netanyahu had approved plans for a military operation in Rafah and was preparing operational issues and the evacuation of the civilian population.

--A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll has nearly half of American voters (45%) believing President Biden should pressure Israel to ease the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, with 49% of those between the ages of 18 to 34 holding this opinion, and 48% of those between ages 35 to 49.

Views that Biden should do more to help the Palestinians are more widespread among Democrats (69%) and those who identify as independent/other (49%).  Just 18% of Republicans share that belief. 

---

This Week in Ukraine....

--President Zelensky said on Monday that the situation along the front of Ukraine’s war with Russia was the best it had been in three months, with Moscow’s troops no longer advancing after their capture last month of the eastern city of Avdiivka.  Zelensky, in an interview with French media, said Ukraine had improved its strategic position despite shortages of weaponry, but suggested the situation could change again if new supplies were not forthcoming.

“We have had some difficulties because of shortages of artillery shells, an air blockade, Russian long range weapons and the great intensity of Russian drone attacks.  We have worked in very efficient fashion... against Russian aviation.  We have recovered in our situation in the east.  The advance of Russian troops has been stopped,” he said.

After Russia captured Avdiivka and some surrounding villages, it gave the Kremlin’s forces breathing room in defending the Russia-held regional center of Donetsk to the east.

But in the past week, Ukrainian military spokespeople have said that Russian forces were no longer advancing and Ukrainian troops had improved their position.

Russian troops had levelled everything in months of bombardments of Avdiivka, Zelensky said. “We can no longer speak of a city as everything has been destroyed in Avdiivka.”  Russian forces enjoyed superiority in terms of long range weapons.  But Zelensky said Ukrainian forces had downed large numbers of Russian aircraft and “continue to act in a strong manner in the Black Sea.”

The president also said he believed a Russian missile strike on Odesa while he was visiting there with Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis showed that Vladimir Putin had “taken leave of the real world.”  “Was he aiming at me? That’s not what matters now,” Zelensky said.  “When you make a cruise missile strike a few hundred meters from a European leader, I think you have to be truly ill.”

--And then there is the issue of Pope Francis and a rather unhappy Kyiv, after Francis’ comments that Ukraine should “show the courage of the white flag” and open talks with Russia to end the two-year-old war.

Specifically, an advance transcript of the interview has Francis saying some of the following:

“But I think that the strongest one is the one who looks at the situation, thinks about the people and has the courage of the white flag, and negotiates,” Francis said, adding that talks should take place with the help of international powers.  “The word negotiate is a courageous word.  When you see that you are defeated, that things are not going well, you have to have the courage to negotiate,” Francis said.  [Reuters]

The pontiff made the comments in an interview, recorded last month, with Swiss broadcaster RSI that is due to be aired on March 20.  The papal ambassador to Ukraine was told the pope should refrain from statements that “legalize the right of might and encourage further disregard for the norms of international law,” a statement on the foreign ministry’s website said.

The statement said the pope “would be expected to send signals to the world community about the need to immediately join forces to ensure the victory of good over evil.”  Ukraine, it said, “seeks peace like no other state.  This peace, however, must be fair and based on the principles of the UN Charter and the peace formula proposed by the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky.”

Zelensky rebuffed the pope’s comments on Sunday.  He said distant religious figures should not get involved in “virtual mediation between someone who wants to live and someone who wants to destroy you.”

Zelensky praised the work of Ukrainian chaplains on the frontline.  “They are on the frontline, protecting life and humanity, supporting with prayer, conversation, and deeds.

“This is what the church is – it is together with people, not two-and-a-half thousand kilometers away somewhere, virtually mediating between someone who wants to live and someone who wants to destroy you.”

Earlier on Sunday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on social media: “Our flag is a yellow and blue one.  This is the flag by which we live, die, and prevail. We shall never raise any other flags.”

Ukraine’s ambassador to the Vatican compared the Pope’s comments to those who advocated talks with Adolf Hitler during World War II.  [BBC News]

Zelensky’s peace plan calls for a withdrawal of Russian troops, a return to Ukraine’s 1991 borders, and due process to hold Russia accountable for its actions.  Russia says it cannot hold any talks under such a premise.

--The Biden administration announced another package of military aid to Ukraine worth up to $300 million on Tuesday after months of warning there was no money left, with officials saying the new funding became available as a result of savings made in weapons contracts.

National security adviser Jake Sullivan announced the package in a briefing at the White House Tuesday.

“When Russian troops advance, and its guns fire, Ukraine does not have enough ammunition to fire back. That’s costing terrain.  It’s costing lives. And it’s costing us, the United States and the NATO alliance, strategically,” Sullivan said.

The new package includes much-needed artillery ammunition, anti-aircraft missiles, anti-armor systems and more.

The European Union agreed on Wednesday to provide 5 billion euro ($5.47bn) for military aid to Ukraine as part of a revamp of an EU-run assistance fund.  The fund operates as a giant cashback scheme, giving EU members refunds for sending munitions to other countries.

--Ukrainian drones attacked eight regions across Russia, knocking out at least one oil refinery in what Reuters described as a “major attack” early Tuesday with more than two dozen drones.  A refinery in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod region, which is about 480 miles from the Ukrainian border, erupted in flames; a second depot that was attacked, in the Oryol region, is almost 100 miles from Ukraine.

--A Russian Il-76 military transport plane crashed shortly after take-off Tuesday, state-run TASS reported.  No word on the fate of the reported 15 on board (8 crew, 7 passengers).

--Tuesday, Polish President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Donald Tusk visited the White House Tuesday, a day after Duda warned in the Washington Post, “NATO members must raise their defense spending to 3 percent of GDP” (from 2 percent).

“The war in Ukraine has clearly shown that the United States is and should remain the leader in security issues in Europe and the world,” the Polish president said in televised remarks Monday.  “However, other NATO countries must also take greater responsibility for the security of the entire alliance and intensively modernize and strengthen their troops,” he added.

Tusk had a message for Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, who has refused to take up bipartisan legislation passed in the Senate that would send another $60 billion in military aid to Ukraine.  The House last passed a supplemental funding bill for Ukraine in December 2022.

“This is not some political skirmish that [only] matters on the American political scene,” Tusk told reporters.  “Mr. Johnson’s failure to make a positive decision will cost thousands of lives,” he said, and added, “He takes personal responsibility for that.”

Johnson “must be aware,” said Tusk, that “the fate of millions of people depends on his individual decisions. And thousands of lives in Ukraine today and tomorrow depend on his decisions.”

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski also pleaded with Johnson to authorize a vote.  Russia “persecutes religious minorities, including Baptists” in occupied Ukraine, Sikorski said.  [Defense One]

--President Vladimir Putin said that Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons if there is a threat to its statehood, sovereignty or independence, voicing hope that the U.S. would refrain from actions that could trigger a nuclear conflict.

Putin’s statement was another blunt warning to the West ahead of a presidential vote this week in which he’s all but certain to win another six-year term.

In an interview with Russian state television released early Wednesday, Putin described U.S. President Joe Biden as a veteran politician who fully understands possible dangers of escalation, and said that he doesn’t think that the world is heading to a nuclear war.

At the same time, he emphasized that Russia’s nuclear forces are in full readiness and “from the military-technical viewpoint, we’re prepared.”

Putin said that in line with the country’s security doctrine, Moscow is ready to use nuclear weapons in case of a threat to “the existence of the Russian state, our sovereignty and independence.”

Putin has talked about his readiness to use nukes since launching the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Asked in the interview if he has ever considered using battlefield nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Putin responded that there has been no need for that.

He also voiced confidence that Moscow will achieve its goals in Ukraine and issued a blunt warning to Western allies, declaring that “the nations that say they have no red lines regarding Russia should realize that Russia won’t have any red lines regarding them either.”

And, while holding open the door for talks, Putin emphasized that Russia will hold onto its gains and would seek firm guarantees from the West.

[Foreign Policy magazine reported that Western officials confirmed that Russia has moved tactical nuclear weapons from its own borders into neighboring Belarus, a move intended to scare the West into paring back its support for Ukraine, while ramping up pressure on NATO’s eastern flank.]

--Russian authorities reported another major attack by Ukrainian drones early Wednesday.  The Defense Ministry said air defenses downed 58 drones over six regions. One of the drones hit an oil refinery in the Ryazan region.

Ukraine reported more Russian attacks early Wednesday, with a strike killing two people in the town of Myrnohrad in the eastern Donetsk region.  A five-story building in the northern city of Sumy was also struck by a Russian drone, with eight injured.

In President Zelensky’s hometown of Kryvyi Rih, in the central Dnipropetrovsk region, at least four were killed by a Russian missile, according to the regional governor.

“Every day our cities and villages suffer similar attacks.  Every day Ukraine loses people because of Russian evil,” Zelensky said.

--Russia claimed that its military and security forces killed 234 fighters while thwarting a cross-border ground assault by Ukraine-based Russian opponents.  The Defense Ministry blamed the attack on the “Kyiv regime” and “Ukraine’s terrorist formations,” insisting that the Russian military and border forces were able to stop the attackers, who it said also lost seven tanks and five armored vehicles.   It’s not possible to verify any of this, but cross-border attacks in Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions have occurred since the war began and have been the subject of claims and counterclaims.

A senior Ukrainian intelligence official said on Thursday that armed groups he described as Russians opposed to the Kremlin were pressing an incursion into Russian territory and had turned two border regions into “active combat zones.”

The governor of the Belgorod region did say there were a number of casualties in the village of Kozinka and that “damage is very serious.”

Then today, Friday, Vladimir Putin, as I alluded to in my opening, claimed armed Ukrainian proxies numbering about 2,500, with 35 tanks and 40 armored vehicles, had entered Russia and that “60% of the soldiers were killed,” which seems to be an impossibility.  Ukrainian officials did confirm armed groups carried out attacks in Belgorod and Kursk regions.

--Russian drones and missiles struck communications infrastructure in northeastern Ukraine on Thursday, knocking out television and radio signals in five cities and towns, in an apparent attempt to cut people from information, officials in Kyiv said.  The overnight attack, which involved 36 drones, could indicate another pattern of Russian aerial attacks more than two years into the full-scale invasion that has seen Moscow mostly target energy and military production at different junctures, aside from slaughtering civilians in their apartment buildings and markets.

--Two people were killed after Russia unleashed a third overnight mass drone attack on Ukraine in two days, authorities said on Friday.

Kyiv’s air force said 27 Iranian-made drones had been shot down by air defenses over seven regions across the country, including around the capital.

Two people were killed in the central Ukrainian city of Vinnytsia when a residential building was damaged.

The air force said Russian forces had fired eight missiles in eastern and central Ukraine, but offered no further details.

And then we learned of another Russian missile strike today, Friday, on Odesa that killed at least 20 people and injured more than 70 at last count (that was 70 that were ‘hospitalized’ according to the BBC).

A first missile struck houses and when emergency crews arrived at the scene a second missile landed (known as a “double tap”), authorities said.  Emergency services workers were among the dead.  As heinous as it gets. Sickening.

President Zelensky vowed revenge.

It was just March 2 that a Russian drone struck a multi-story building in Odesa, killing 12, including five children.

--French President Emmanuel Macron warned that the European Union would face an “existential” threat of a Russian invasion unless Vladimir Putin’s forces are defeated in Ukraine.

“Who can think for a second that President Putin, who hasn’t respected any of his limits or commitments, would stop there?” Macron asked during a joint interview with TF1 and France 2 television channels on Thursday.  “The security of Europe and French people are at stake.”

And: “If Russia wins this war, Europe’s credibility will be reduced to zero,” Macron said.  “Deciding to abstain or vote against support to Ukraine, it’s not choosing peace, it’s choosing defeat.  It’s different.”

--The UN human rights expert on Russia said on Monday that the death of opposition politician Alexei Navalny was Moscow’s responsibility as he was either killed in prison or died from detention conditions that amounted to torture.

“So the Russian government is responsible, one way or another, for his death,” Mariana Katzarova told Reuters on the sidelines of an event on Russian political prisoners at the United Nations in Geneva.  She cited long periods of solitary confinement which she said amounted to about 300 days, which could have caused “a slow death over several years.”

Katzarova was “very worried” about opposition politician Vladimir Kara-Murza.  “Ever since the death of Alexei Navalny, there is no day passing without asking myself, who is the next Navalny?” she said.  “And there will be a next Navalny, for sure, with this level of repression.”

Katzarova, a Bulgarian former investigator for Amnesty International, is one of dozens of independent human rights experts mandated by the United Nations to report on specific themes or crises, though the only one reporting on one of the five states with a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.  Civil society groups say that around 600-1,000 political prisoners are being detained in Russia for voicing opposition to the Russian invasion of Ukraine or refusing to fight in it.

--Navalny’s longtime aide, Leonid Volkov, was assaulted with a hammer in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius on Tuesday, former Navalny spokesperson Kira Yarmysh said.

“Volkov has just been attacked outside his house. Someone broke a car window and sprayed tear gas in his eyes, after which the attacker started hitting Leonid with a hammer,” she wrote on X.  Yarmysh posted images showing Volkov with a bruise on his forehead, blood coming from a leg wound and vehicle damage.

A large part of Navalny’s political vehicle, the Anti-Corruption Foundation, which includes Volkov, live in Vilnius after fleeing Russia.

Volkov himself then said the attack was politically motivated.

He said it was “an obvious, typical, gangster greeting from Putin, from bandit St. Petersburg,” but gave no more details about his attacker.

Volkov’s wife, Anna Biryukova, posted on X: “We will all work even more. And with even greater anger.”

Volkov said his attacker used a meat hammer and “literally wanted to make a schnitzel out of me.”

He urged Russians to head for polling stations at the same time on Sunday for a peaceful protest that supporters are calling “midday against Putin.”

Thursday, the head of Lithuania’s State Security Department, Darius Jauniskis, told reporters the attack on Volkov was the work of Russian special services.  “We need to pay more attention to the security of the Russian opposition (based in Lithuania),” he added.

---

Wall Street and the Economy

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the Fed needs “just a bit more evidence” inflation is headed toward its 2% target before lowering borrowing costs.  “We’re not far from it,” he said.

According to a Reuters poll of 108 economists, taken March 5-11, the Fed will cut its benchmark rate in June.  [72 said it would come in June, 17 in May and 19 July or later.]  The Fed’s upcoming dot plot is likely to show three cuts in 2024, which to me, fully understanding the political calendar and the Fed’s reluctance to be seen influencing the vote, would mean June, July and then a pause, as they’ve talked about, prior to the Sept. 17-18 meeting, the November FOMC gathering coming in the days after the Election, Nov. 5, and then a meeting in December.

If they cut rates in June and pause, that means possibly cutting rates in September, which I just don’t see.

Well, I wrote the above Monday, prior to this week’s crucial inflation data, and February consumer and producer prices came in hotter-than-expected, a la January, which means the Fed certainly isn’t going to act before June, and maybe June is in question.

The CPI rose 0.4%, ditto ex-food and energy, and for the 12 months, headline CPI was 3.2% vs. 3.1% prior, and the core rate was 3.8% vs. the prior month’s 3.9%, but above expectations for 3.7%.

Producer prices surged...0.6% on headline, 0.3% core over January, and 1.6% year-over-year, 2.0% ex-food and energy.  The 1.6% headline figure was expected to be 0.9%.

Bottom line...inflation is sticky and stubbornly high.

None of this is good for the upcoming personal consumption expenditures index, PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer, as core CPI of 3.8% is not exactly the targeted 2%.  [January’s core PCE was 2.8%, the next reading for this one March 29.]

So now we wait for next week’s Federal Open Market Committee confab and Chair Powell’s words of wisdom, and market guidance, if any, at his press conference.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said the Fed needs to wait longer before cutting interest rates.  Dimon said he wouldn’t start lowering rates until after June.

Two other economic notes...February retail sales were up 0.6%, vs. a prior revised decline of 1.1%, with the number ex-autos, 0.3%.  February industrial production was up 0.1%.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for first-quarter growth is at 2.3%.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.74%, down 14 basis points on the week, but this will spike back up next week with the rise in Treasury yields.

On a different topic, late last Friday, after I posted, the Senate narrowly averted a partial government shutdown, as it approved spending legislation for several government agencies just hours before current funding was due to expire.  The bipartisan vote was 75-22, the Senate approving a $467.5 billion spending package that will fund agriculture, transportation, housing, energy, veterans and other programs through the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30.  President Biden then signed it into law.  The House had handily approved it earlier in the week.

But action in the Senate was delayed as some conservative pressed for votes on immigration and other topics, which all failed.  Congress has until March 22 to work on a much larger package of spending bills, covering the military, homeland security, health care and other services.  Taken together, the two packages would cost $1.66 trillion.

Far-right Republicans have pushed for deeper spending cuts to tame a $34.5 trillion national debt.

As usual, all these measures were to have been enacted last Oct. 1st, the start of the 2024 fiscal year.

And this next package will get testy as it gets wrapped up in talks surrounding U.S. aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, on top of the security issue at the U.S.-Mexico border.

House Speaker Mike Johnson and Republicans say they want to pass border and immigration legislation before sending aid to allies, and some of those policy pushes, lawmakers say, have clouded the government funding picture.

President Biden’s proposed $7.3 trillion budget for the next fiscal year beginning Oct. 1, is dead on arrival, as all budgets from the White House are initially in a divided Congress, but in raising taxes on the wealthy and large corporations, and proposing to lower the costs of prescription drugs, child care and housing, he now has his campaign talking points.

Europe and Asia

Just one broad economic indicator of note this week, with Eurostat reporting that January industrial production in the eurozone fell 3.1% over December, and was down 6.7% year-over-year, befitting the lousy manufacturing PMI data we’ve been seeing in the region.

Netherlands: Dutch anti-Islam populist leader Geert Wilders abandoned his bid to become prime minister, despite his party’s big win in the 2023 elections.

“I can only become prime minister if ALL parties in the coalition support it. That was not the case,” he wrote on X.

Wilders’ Freedom Party won the most votes last year, but needed the support of other parties to form a coalition and no one wanted to be with him.  So talks continue with three other parties on the shape of a new government.

Turning to Asia...China reported on February inflation after I posted last Friday night and it was 0.7% year-over-year vs. -0.8% prior, but prices, which were up after six consecutive months of decline, were helped by a holiday-driven consumption boom, i.e., this was an anomaly.  Producer prices in the month fell 2.7% Y/Y.

Japan’s final Q4 GDP figure came in at 0.4% annualized, better than the initial estimate for a 0.4% contraction, government data showed on Monday. The revised figure, which was less than economists’ median forecast for a 1.1% uptick, meant Japan’s economy – now the world’s fourth-largest behind Germany – avoided a technical recession thanks to companies’ stronger-than-expected spending on plants and equipment.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP grew 0.1% compared with the initial 0.1% drop reading. The upward revision came amid growing market expectations that the Bank of Japan could ditch negative interest rates as early as this month. The BOJ holds a two-day policy meeting on March 18-19.

And related to the meeting, Japan’s largest union group announced stronger-than-expected annual wage deals Friday, with Rengo, a federation of unions, saying its members have so far secured deals averaging 5.28%, a figure that far outpaces the initial 3.8% tally of a year ago – itself the biggest in 30 years.

Separately, February producer prices in Japan rose 0.6% year-over-year.

Street Bytes

--Stocks initially ignored the inflation data and the prospect that Fed rate cuts could be further pushed out, as it’s been more about the strong economy, and what that foretells for earnings expectations.  But by week’s end, the markets couldn’t ignore the highest yields of the month and the implications of the Fed needing to wait even further.

Overall, stocks finished down but just fractionally.  The Dow Jones lost a mere 8 points to 38714, -0.02%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.1% and Nasdaq 0.7%. The S&P did hit a new record closing high of 5175 on Tuesday.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 5.33%  2-yr. 4.73%  10-yr. 4.31%  30-yr. 4.43%

We started the week with the 2-yr. at 4.48% and the 10-yr. at 4.08%, and then the inflation figures Tuesday and Thursday abruptly ended what had been a strong March rally in Treasuries.

--Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil giant Aramco boosted its dividend despite falling profit on lower oil prices and volumes, showing the state’s continued dependence on oil revenue as it seeks to diversify.  The profit of $121.3 billion in 2023 was down from $161.1 billion in 2022, but still the second highest on record, Aramco said last Sunday as it reported dividends of $97.8 billion, up 30%.

The Saudi government owns 82.2% of Aramco and heavily relies on the dividends, which made up 62% of total state revenues last year.

CEO Amin Nasser said he expects global oil demand for 2024 at 104 million barrels a day, up from an average of 102.4 million barrels in 2023.  The state’s economic agenda, known as Vision 2030, is spearheaded by the sovereign Public Investment Fund, which owns 16% of Aramco, after a fresh transfer by the government of 8% to companies PIF owns last week.

Aramco said capital investments were at $49.7 billion in 2023, up from $38.8 billion in 2022.  It forecast capital investments between $48 billion and $58 billion this year, growing until the middle of the decade.

The International Energy Agency on Thursday raised its view on 2024 oil demand growth for a fourth time since November, though it remains less bullish than OPEC.  The IEA in its latest report sees global demand rising 1.3 million bpd vs. OPEC’s 2.25 million bpd, a big gap.  [Amin Nasser’s view above is Aramco’s, not OPEC’s.]

The IEA had initially forecast 2024 demand growth of 860,000 barrels per day in June 2023.  Demand rose by 2.3 million bpd last year.

--A former Boeing employee who raised quality-control and safety concerns over the company’s aircraft production was found dead last week, according to authorities in South Carolina.

John Barnett, 62, was a quality manager with Boeing who retired in 2017 after several decades with the company.  He died March 9 from what appeared to be a self-inflicted gunshot wound, the Charleston County coroner’s office said in a statement.

“We are saddened by Mr. Barnett’s passing, and our thoughts are with his family and friends,” Boeing said in a statement.

In a 2019 New York Times story, Barnett was one of several whistleblowers who raised quality issues at Boeing’s South Carolina plant where the company builds its 787 Dreamliner aircraft. Barnett said he had discovered clusters of metal shavings left near electrical systems for flight controls, which he said could have “catastrophic” results if the shavings penetrated the wiring.

Word of Barnett’s death didn’t become news until late Monday night.

--New Zealand’s Transport Accident Investigation Committee said Tuesday that it was seizing the cockpit voice and flight data recorders of a LATAM Airlines Boeing 787 jet as part of an investigation into a mid-flight accident that injured more than 50 passengers and crew.

The Sydney-Auckland flight dropped mid-air on Monday without warning and essentially, anyone not wearing a seat belt hit the ceiling. 

But we then learned a flight attendant may have inadvertently pushed a switch on the pilot’s seat during meal service that sent the pilot straight into the controls, which pushed down the plane’s nose, according to the Wall Street Journal.  The pilot then recovered control and landed the plane safely.

--The New York Times reported Tuesday that Boeing failed 33 of 89 audits by the Federal Aviation Administration on the manufacturing process for the 737 MAX, the plane involved in a door panel blowout mid-air in January.

In a statement, Boeing said: “We continue to implement immediate changes and develop a comprehensive action plan to strengthen safety and quality and build the confidence of our customers and their passengers.

Monday, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said that Boeing needs to make “a serious transformation” around its safety and manufacturing quality.

Over the weekend the Wall Street Journal reported that the Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into the Jan. 5 blowout on the Alaska Airlines jet.  That followed the company’s admission it couldn’t find records that the National Transportation Safety Board sought for work done on the panel at a Boeing factory.

Boeing then said Tuesday it would work with employees found to have violated company manufacturing procedures to make sure they understand instructions for their jobs, which is pathetic that the company has to say this!

“The vast majority of violations found by the FAA involved workers not following Boeing’s approved procedures,” Stan Deal, president of Boeing’s commercial plane division, said in a memo to employees.

--Boeing said on Tuesday it had delivered 27 airplanes in February, down one unit from the same month a year ago, as the planemaker faces curbs on production growth, owing to the Jan. 5 accident involving a door plug on the Alaska Air flight that became detached during flight. In response, the FAA grounded the MAX 9 for several weeks and has temporarily capped Boeing’s production of the MAX.

In line with the above, shares of Southwest Airlines fell heavily on Tuesday as the company said it plans to reduce capacity and reevaluate its full-year financial outlook because of fewer expected aircraft deliveries from Boeing.

Southwest said in a regulatory filing that Boeing expects to deliver 46 737-8 planes this year, after the company previously anticipated 79 737 MAX aircraft deliveries, which included 58 737-8 planes, but CEO Bob Jordan said he “would not be surprised” if the latest forecast changed again, after the company highlighted the need to reduce capacity and “re-optimize schedules” for the second half of 2024.

Alaska Air Group also said its 2024 capacity plans were still in flux due to the Boeing crisis.  The airline does not expect to get all of the 47 planned aircraft deliveries from Boeing over the next two years, CEO Ben Minicucci said on Tuesday.

United Airlines on Tuesday asked Boeing to start building MAX 9 jets instead of MAX 10s while waiting for the MAX 10 to get certified, CEO Scott Kirby said at an investor conference.

United will opt back to the MAX 10 after the plane gets certified, although “it’s impossible to say” when a certification would be issued, Kirby said.  “Boeing’s deliveries are going to be way behind this year.”

UAL is considering replacing part of its order for 277 MAX 10s with A321s from Airbus, Kirby added.

Airbus, while not facing regulatory issues, is having trouble keeping up with a huge backlog of orders for its narrow body jets, and it faces labor strife.

--TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2023

3/14...103 percent of 2023 levels
3/13...105
3/12...108
3/11...107
3/10...107
3/9...103
3/8...106
3/7...106

--House Republican leaders moved this week to pass legislation that would force the Chinese owners of TikTok to sell the platform or face being barred in the United States, even after former President Trump came out on Monday in an interview on CNBC against targeting the popular social media app he once vowed to ban.

Both parties in this election year are eager to show they can be tough on China.  Majority Leader Steve Scalise said: “We must ensure the Chinese government cannot weaponize TikTok against American users and our government through data collection and propaganda.”

The 13-page bill is the product of the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, which has been an island of bipartisanship, chaired by Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher.  The House Energy and Commerce Committee voted unanimously last week to advance the legislation, which would remove TikTok from app stores in the U.S. by Sept. 30 unless its Beijing-based parent company ByteDance, sold its stake.

Trump as president issued an executive order that did exactly that, but now he has changed his mind.  He told CNBC Monday morning that he still considered TikTok a national security threat, but that banning it would make young people “go crazy.”  He added that any action harming the platform would benefit Facebook, which he called an “enemy of the people.”

“Frankly, there are a lot of people on TikTok that love it,” Trump said.  “There are a lot of young kids on TikTok who will go crazy without it.”

“There’s a lot of good and there’s a lot of bad with TikTok,” he added, “but the thing I don’t like is that without TikTok, you can make Facebook bigger, and I consider Facebook to be an enemy of the people, along with a lot of the media.”

So, will Trump’s reversal erode the bill’s broad base of support in the House?  Many members were irate last week when TikTok dispatched its users to flood congressional telephone lines with calls urging lawmakers not to shut down the platform.

Chairman Gallagher and his Democratic counterpart, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, have used similar language in describing the risks of TikTok.

“America’s foremost adversary has no business controlling a dominant media platform in the United States,” said Gallagher.  Krishnamoorthi said TikTok “poses critical threats to our national security” as long as it is owned by ByteDance.

Gallagher also expressed concern that TikTok has become the “primary news source for 17-year-olds.”  Oh brother.  Yup, they aren’t reading StocksandNews.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Banning TikTok should be a last resort, but ByteDance and Beijing have demonstrated that they can’t be trusted.  Reams of evidence show how the Chinese government can use the platform for cyber-espionage and political influence campaigns in the U.S.

“Numerous reports have found that posts about Uyghur forced labor in Xinjiang province, the Tiananmen Square massacre, Hong Kong protests, Tibet and other politically sensitive content in China are suppressed on TikTok.  A December study by the Network Contagion Research Institute found significant disparities between hashtags on Instagram and TikTok.  The site also appears to amplify content that sows discord and ignorance in America.  Pro-Hamas videos trend more than pro-Israel ones.  Videos promoting Osama bin Laden’s 2002 ‘letter to America’ went viral on TikTok last autumn.

“How has TikTok responded to allegations that its algorithms are controlled by the Chinese government?  In January it restricted researcher access to its hashtag data to make it harder to study.  ‘Some individuals and organizations have misused the Center’s search function to draw inaccurate conclusions, so we are changing some of the features to ensure it is used for its intended purpose,’ a TikTok spokesperson said.

“Yet TikTok can’t explain why posts that are divisive in America go viral, while those that are sensitive for the CCP get few views.  TikTok tried to ameliorate concerns about CCP wizards behind the screen with its Project Texas, which houses American user data on Oracle servers and gives the U.S. software company access to its algorithms.

“But TikTok’s algorithms are still controlled by ByteDance engineers in China.  The Journal reported in January that TikTok executives have said internally that they sometimes need to share protected U.S. data with ByteDance to train the algorithms and keep problematic content off the site.  Like protests for democracy in Hong Kong?

“TikTok’s other major security risk is cyber-espionage.  The app vacuums up sensitive American user information, including searches, browsing histories and locations. This data can and does flow back to China.  ‘Everything is seen in China,’ a TikTok official said in a leaked internal recording reported by Buzzfeed....

“(The) House bill doesn’t restrict First Amendment rights.  It regulates national security. It also has ample precedent since U.S. law restricts foreign ownership of broadcast stations.  The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States forced the Chinese owners of Grindr, the gay dating app, to give up control of the company.

“China has blocked U.S. social-media companies that don’t comply with its censorship regime, and the House bill would prevent Beijing from applying its political speech controls and surveillance in the U.S.  Despite America’s political divisions, this ought to be a shared goal.”

Wednesday, the legislation then passed in the House, 352 to 65, with 50 Democrats and 15 Republicans voting in opposition.

In a statement on the vote, TikTok said its attention would now shift to the Senate, where the fate of the bill is unclear.

“This process was secret and the bill was jammed through for one reason: it’s a ban,” a TikTok spokesperson said in a statement.  “We are hopeful that the Senate will consider the facts, listen to their constituents, and realize the impact on the economy, 7 million small businesses, and the 170 million Americans who use our service.”

Senate Majority Leader Schumer said, “The Senate will review the legislation when it comes over from the House.”

Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat, and the panel’s top Republican, Marco Rubio of Florida, urged support for the House bill, citing the strong showing in Wednesday’s vote.

“We are united in our concern about the national security threat posed by TikTok – a platform with enormous power to influence and divide Americans whose parent company ByteDance remains legally required to do the bidding of the Chinese Communist Party,” the pair said in their joint statement.

China then criticized America for “unjustly suppressing foreign companies,” while Shou Chew, TikTok’s boss, urged American users to “protect” their “constitutional rights.”

Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Thursday on CNBC that he’s building a team of investors to potentially buy TikTok.

Mnuchin downplayed concerns that the Chinese government would step in to block a sale – and asserted that the app would need to be “rebuilt in the U.S.” after an acquisition.

“I think the Chinese will be fine selling it so long as there’s not a technology transfer along the way.”

TikTok users, however, need not worry their app is about to be taken away anytime soon as not only does the Senate have to act, and it won’t do anything imminently, but then if the Senate passed the bill, TikTok has six months to find a buyer, and there will be court cases and you get the idea.

Meanwhile, shares in Meta Platforms fell 4% after Donald Trump’s comment describing Facebook as “an enemy of the people,” and that he didn’t want Facebook to get “bigger” if TikTok was banned.  Trump also told CNBC, “I think Facebook has been very bad for our country, especially when it comes to elections.”

--Oracle reported stronger-than-expected fiscal third-quarter earnings after the market close on Monday and the shares rose 11% Tuesday as cloud demand continued to grow.

Adjusted per-share earnings rose to $1.41 in the three months ended Feb. 29 from $1.22 a year earlier, beating expectations for $1.38.  Revenue advanced 7% from a year earlier to $13.28 billion, essentially in line with the Street.

Oracle’s total remaining performance obligations surged 29% to an all-time high of more than $80 billion, driven by “large new cloud infrastructure contracts,” CEO Safra Catz said in a statement.

“We expect to continue receiving large contracts reserving cloud infrastructure capacity because the demand for our Gen2 (artificial intelligence) infrastructure substantially exceeds supply – despite the fact we are opening new and expanding existing cloud datacenters very, very rapidly,” Catz said.

Cloud services and license support sales gained 12% to $9.96 billion, while the cloud and on-premise license segment fell 3% to $1.26 billion. Both hardware and services logged declines, according to Oracle.

Catz added that the company’s “Gen2 cloud infrastructure business will remain in a hyper-growth phase – up 53% in (the third quarter) – for the foreseeable future.”

--Apple supplier Foxconn said on Thursday it expects revenue to increase significantly in 2024 following a slow start to the year amid booming demand for AI servers, after it posted fourth-quarte profit that beat market estimates.

The outlook has turned rosier since Foxconn chairman Young Liu said in November the world’s largest contract electronics maker had “relatively conservative and neutral” expectations for 2024.

In the fourth quarter, consumer electronics including smartphones accounted for 58 percent of revenue while cloud and networking products, including servers, contributed 20 percent.

The company expects first quarter revenue to decline slightly from a year earlier, but it sees 2024 revenue increasing significantly year-on-year.

--Shares in U.S. Steel fell sharply after the Washington Post reported that “President Biden is preparing to issue a statement of veiled opposition to Nippon Steel’s proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel before Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida arrives in Washington for a planned state visit April 10, according to three people familiar with he matter.

“White House lawyers are drafting the expression of presidential concern even as the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) reviews the proposed takeover.

Donald Trump has previously said he would “block it instantaneously” if he returned to the White House.

It’s all about winning over the United Steelworkers union, which is also ill-advised in seeking to block the merger, a merger that will only help the company!  And the United States.  This topic really pisses me off.

Biden, in a statement, Thursday, said the United States needs to “maintain strong American steel companies powered by American steel workers.”

“U.S. Steel has been an iconic American steel company for more than a century, and it is vital for it to remain an American steel company that is domestically owned and operated,” the president added.

Nippon Steel has promised to honor all existing union contracts!  And to expand operations, in the United States...and Japan is our ally, Mr. President, and Donald Trump.

As I noted back on 12/30/23 in this space, quoting a Washington Post editorial:

“It is no longer 1943, when U.S. Steel’s employment peaked at 340,000, as it helped arm the Allies to defeat the Axis power, including Imperial Japan.  Now, the firm has fewer than 15,000 workers, and Japan is one of the United States’ best friends, whose companies already employ tens of thousands of U.S. workers at auto plants across the country – and should be welcome in steel, too.”

--The National Association of Realtors will drop the long-held policy on broker commissions that has been the target of several lawsuits, the Chicago-based association announced today.

It’s the end of a Chicago-born standard of real estate sales, where the agents for buyer and seller agree to split in half a commission of around 5% to 6%. Lawsuits seeking to kill the standard have argued the sharing rule amounts to collusion to jack up prices.

--Kohl’s topped quarterly estimates but the shares fell over 6%, after same-store sales declined more than expected.

For the fiscal fourth quarter ended Feb. 3, Kohl’s posted per-share earnings of $1.67, beating the Street’s estimate for $1.28.  Net sales of $5.7 billion missed consensus of $5.8bn, and same-store sales fell 4.3% vs. a year ago, wider than expected.

The company is expecting fiscal-year per-share EPS of $2.10 to $2.70, while analysts are at $2.62.  And, aside from expansion of its partnership with Sephora, Kohl’s said it will partner with Babies ‘R’ Us.

--Dollar Tree announced it will close nearly 1,000 stores as it swung to a surprise fourth quarter loss as the discount retailer took a related $1.07 billion goodwill impairment charge.  The shares fell 14% in response.

Dollar Tree plans to close about 600 Family Dollar stores in the first half of this year and 370 Family Dollar and 30 Dollar Tree stores over the next several years.

Dollar Tree acquired Family Dollar for more than $8 billion almost a decade ago after a bidding war with rival Dollar General, but it’s been a mess absorbing the chain.

Adjusted earnings were $2.55 per share, short of the Street’s estimate of $2.67, while revenue climbed to $8.64 billion from $7.72 billion, a bit below consensus of $8.67bn.

DLTR has been attracting consumers that have been stung by inflation as they seek to cut spending.  During the quarter, sales at Dollar Tree stores open at least a year climbed 6.3%, with traffic up 7.1%. 

The company expects first-quarter earnings of $1.33 to $1.48 per share on revenue in a range of $7.6 billion to $7.9 billion, with current consensus of $1.70 on revenue of $7.68 billion.  Another reason for the sharp fall in the share price.

--Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. on Thursday reported fiscal fourth-quarter profit of $296.4 million, with adjusted earnings of $3.85 per share, beating Wall Street expectations for $3.36 and the shares surged 14%.

The sporting goods retailer posted revenue of $3.88 billion in the period, also beating the Street, and compared with $3.60 billion a year earlier.  Analysts were at $3.79 billion.

For the year, the company reported a profit of $1.05 billion, or $12.18 per share, with revenue at $12.98 billion.

Dick’s expects full-year earnings to be $12.85 to $13.25 per share, with revenue in the range of $13 billion to $13.13 billion. Analysts are expecting EPS of $12.79 on revenue of $13.1 billion.

--Manhattan apartment rents rose in February as a strong economy and tough sales market translated into a busy month for leasing.

The median rent on new leases signed last month was $4,230, up 3.3% from a year earlier, according to appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate.  The record $4,400 was reached last summer.

--Bitcoin hit $72,881 on Monday, and then $73,400 Thursday, as a record $2.7 billion flowed into crypto assets last week, with the bulk of that going to Bitcoin.

At 4:00 p.m. ET the price was $68,600.

--Germans have been dealing with some serious travel issues this week, as train drivers from rail company Deutsche Bahn announced a sixth round of strikes Monday until Wednesday in a long-running pay dispute.

And Lufthansa’s cabin crew union called on its members to strike at Lufthansa and short-haul carrier CityLine on Tuesday and Wednesday across two of Germany’s busiest airports, Frankfurt and Munich, to press their demands for higher pay.

Some 560 Lufthansa and CityLine flights were canceled Tuesday and another 360 on Wednesday as a result of the job action.

[Unrelated, some 800+ flights were canceled at Denver’s International Airport as a result of Thursday’s huge snowstorm in the region, though the airport itself didn’t receive much white stuff.]

--The 96th Academy Awards ceremony Sunday was watched on ABC by an average audience of 19.5 million viewers, a 4% increase over 2023, according to Nielsen data, and the third consecutive year the Oscars has grown since hitting an all-time low of 10.5 million viewers in 2021 during the pandemic.

The Oscars telecast is typically the highest rated non-sports program of the year, but it used to score 30 million viewers or more.

Meanwhile, “Oppenheimer” won seven Oscars, including for best picture, and best director (Christopher Nolan), along with best actor (Cillian Murphy), and supporting actor (Robert Downey Jr.).

Universal Pictures was not only responsible for “Oppenheimer,” but also for “Kung Fu Panda 4,” which won the box office last weekend with a solid $58.3 million opening domestically.  The film added $22 million internationally.

“Dune: Part Two” raked in an additional $46 million in its second week, bringing its domestic cumulative total to $157 million.

Foreign Affairs, Part II

China: China criticized India for opening a tunnel near the countries’ shared border.  Last week Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the tunnel in a part of the northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh that is claimed by China. India said the tunnel would be used by its army.  But China said India “has no right” to build infrastructure in what it called the “southern region of Tibet.”

Meanwhile, the National People’s Congress wrapped up, with President Xi Jinping gaining even more control with the theme being a deeper focus on national security.

Nearly 3,000 delegates met over the past week in Beijing for the highly choreographed event, with delegates enacting bills to “modernize China’s system and capacity for national security,” while revising laws on national defense education and broadening state secrets laws to include work secrets in restricted sensitive information.

And as I noted last week, China also broke with 30 years of tradition by scrapping one of the most widely followed events on the policy calendar, the premier’s annual post-parliament news conference.

Thomas Kellogg, a professor of Asian law at Georgetown University, told Reuters the Communist Party under Xi “reverts in so many ways to a pre-1978 mode of governance.”

The NPC approved a revised State Council law that directs China’s version of the cabinet to follow Xi’s vision by 2,883 to eight, with nine abstentions.  Other measures passed by similarly wide margins.

In brief closing remarks, Zhao Leji, the legislature’s top official, urged the people to unite more closely under the Communist Party’s leadership “with comrade Xi Jinping at its core.”

Neil Thomas, a Chinese politics fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told the Associated Press that the party leaders who run the State Council used to have a much freer hand in setting economic policy.  But not today.

“Xi has been astonishingly successful in consolidating his personal hold over the party, which has allowed him to become the key decisionmaker in all policy domains,” he said.

North Korea: Seong-Hyon Lee is a senior fellow at the George H.W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations. The following excerpts are from an op-ed in Barron’s.

“Many in Washington now appear to have reached the conclusion that the recent war warnings from North Korea, amidst a series of missile tests, are merely routine and part of Pyongyang’s standard strategy.  However, it is time for a reassessment.

“Recent policy shifts and statements by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, coupled with the escalation of missile tests and threats by North Korea, signify a profound change in North Korea’s stance toward inter-Korean relations.  They render the security outlook of the Korean Peninsula uncertain.

“North Korea has officially forsaken its long-held policy of peaceful reunification with South Korea.  On Jan. 15, Kim Jong-un mandated a constitutional amendment that calls for the complete occupation, subjugation, and annexation of South Korea ‘in the event of war.’  At the same time, North Korea’s Supreme People’s Assembly, a parliament that unconditionally supports the decisions of the supreme leader, resolved to dismantle government agencies that foster inter-Korean exchanges and cooperation.  Kim declared, ‘The bitter history of inter-Korean relations has led us to the definitive conclusion that national restoration and reunification with South Korea are unattainable.’

“Some Western analysts erroneously believe that North Korea’s elimination of references to ‘peaceful reunification’ and the portrayal of inter-Korean relations as those between ‘two states’ resemble Kim’s approach to a ‘two-state’ solution in the Israeli-Palestinian context.  They incorrectly infer that this reflects Kim’s acknowledgement of his inability to enforce a unification agenda with the economically superior South, which boasts a nominal gross domestic product approximately 98% larger than that of North Korea, as per Statistics Korea, South Korea’s official statistics agency.

“Nonetheless, North Korea’s mid-January parliamentary decision also characterizes the state of inter-Korean relations as ‘at war.’...It is crucial to note that the parliament also formally identifies South Korea as ‘the state most hostile toward the DPRK.’ [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea]

“The portrayal of South Korea as the ‘most hostile state’ and the abolition of inter-Korean governmental bodies indicates a more rigid stance by North Korea.  The North Korean version of the ‘two-state solution’ does not imply the recognition of two separate sovereignties on the Korean Peninsula with each pursuing its own interests.  Instead, it officially labels South Korea as the North’s primary adversary.  The underlying question then becomes: How does one deal with an enemy? The objective becomes to undermine, sabotage, and ultimately, to annihilate.  This perspective is notably absent in some of the interpretations emanating from Washington....

“Based on North Korea’s history of provocations, its attacks often occur when the likelihood of such attacks is perceived to be low.  The Korean War commenced on a tranquil Sunday morning in June 1950, catching many off guard, with numerous South Korean soldiers away for the weekend.

“An in-depth analysis of Kim’s recent speeches and declarations, particularly his 20,000-word discourse at the 10th Session of the 14th Supreme People’s Assembly, offers invaluable insights into his mindset.  While the speech is laden with North Korea’s customary propaganda and arrogance, it also conveys considerable anger, hostility, and strategic ambiguity, yet with nuances.  Significantly, it vividly reflects Kim’s frustration and his sense of being encircled....

“Cornering a desperate adversary may inadvertently heighten the aggression of that nation.  History has shown that the greatest military strategists have consistently employed a combination of coercion and inducement.’

Iran: U.S., French and British forces downed dozens of drones in the Red Sea over the weekend after Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis targeted bulk carrier Propel Fortune and U.S. destroyers in the region, the U.S. military said in a statement.

A Houthi spokesman in a speech Saturday said they targeted the cargo vessel and “a umber of U.S. war destroyers at the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden with 37 drones.”

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said the U.S. military and coalition forces had downed at least 28 uncrewed aerial vehicles over the Red Sea.

Haiti: Prime Minister Ariel Henry said he will resign once a transitional presidential council is created, capitulating to international pressure that seeks to save the country overwhelmed by violent gangs.

But the gangs just intensified their efforts to take over the country, while there is a true humanitarian crisis, with millions in desperate need of food and water.  Stands and stores that used to sell to impoverished Haitians have run out of goods, the airport closed, the main port in Port-au-Prince closed, stranding tons of containers with critical supplies.

The U.S. military on Sunday carried out an operation to airlift non-essential embassy personnel from the country and added ‘anti-terrorism’ forces to bolster embassy security.

Needless to say, there are risks of another mass migration of Haitians to the United States and the region as nearby countries bolster their border security and withdraw staff from embassies, while plans to send a long-awaited international security force remain uncertain.

Random Musing

--Presidential approval ratings....

Gallup: 38% approve of President Biden’s job performance, 59% disapprove; 32% of independents approve (Feb. 1-20).

Rasmussen: 45% approve, 54% disapprove (March 15).

--President Biden and Donald Trump formally wrapped up their party nominations on Tuesday in primaries held in the likes of Georgia, Mississippi and Washington State, and so we’re off and running, though the two got a start last weekend after Super Tuesday’s results.

Biden issued a statement Tuesday night declaring himself “honored” to have earned the nomination and noting that the country was making progress, but also warning:

“Amid this progress we face a sobering reality. Freedom and democracy are at risk here in a way they have not been since the civil war.  Donald Trump is running a campaign of resentment, revenge and retribution that threaten the very idea of America.  Voters have a choice to make about the very future of this country. Are we going to stand up and defend our democracy or let others tear it down?”

Monday night, Trump announced on Truth Social his first steps if he returns to the Oval Office.

“My first acts as your next President will be to Close the Border, DRILL, BABY, DRILL, and Free the January 6 hostages being wrongfully imprisoned!”

Just a reminder...the U.S. is producing oil at all-time high today!  But President Biden is loath to talk about it for fear of offending his far-left base.

Trump, in a video Tuesday night, called it a “really great day of victory.”

Looking forward to November, he said, “We now have to go on to victory because our country’s in serious trouble,” complaining about the border and the economy and claiming the U.S. has “no respect on the world stage.”

Last Saturday, the two candidates had dueling rallies in Georgia.  Biden, addressing supporters in Atlanta, said:

“Donald Trump has a different constituency.  Here’s a guy who’s kicking off his general election campaign on the road up with Marjorie Taylore Greene.  It can tell you a lot about a person who he keeps company with.”  Biden also noted that Trump hosted Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on Friday night in Mar-a-Lago, a man who Biden says “doesn’t think democracy works.”

Trump, with Greene in Rome, made the border crisis a central focus of his speech, ratcheting up his anti-immigrant rhetoric as he spoke about the murder of Laken Riley, the Georgia nursing student who was killed while jogging.

“I will stop the killing. I will stop the bloodshed. I will end the agony of our people, the plunder of our cities, the sacking of our towns, the violation of our citizens and the conquest of our country. These people are conquering our country.”

Trump also continued to falsely claim that the 2020 election was “rigged” and reiterated his suggestion that his domestic opponents posed a bigger threat than the foreign countries.

“The biggest threat we have, it’s the threat from within,” he said.  “It’s the radical left lunatics that we have in this country. That’s a much bigger threat than outside threats.”

A Fox News poll conducted in January found that in a matchup between Biden and Trump, 51% of registered voters in Georgia said they would vote for Trump, while 43% said they would vote for Biden.

--The Republican senator who gave the party’s response to President Biden’s State of the Union address, Katie Britt of Alabama, used a harrowing account of a young woman’s sexual abuse to attack his border policies, but the rapes did not happen in the U.S. or during the Biden administration, as was the clear insinuation.

Britt described how she had met a woman at the U.S.-Mexico border who told of being raped thousands of times in a sex trafficking operation run by cartels, starting at age 12.

The victim has previously spoken publicly about the abuse happening in her home country of Mexico from 2004 to 2008 – not in the United States during the Biden administration.  Yet Britt said:

“We wouldn’t be OK with this happening in a third-world country.  This is the United States of America, and its past time we start acting like it,” Britt said in the speech from her kitchen at home in Alabama.  “President Biden’s border crisis is a disgrace.”

She was appropriately then skewered on “Saturday Night Live.”

--Back to Hungary’s Viktor Orban, after meeting with Trump, he posted on X: “We need leaders in the world who are respected and can bring peace. He is one of them!  Come back and bring us peace, Mr. President!”  Trump, in a room full of attendees honoring Orban, called the prime minister a “fantastic leader.”

--The New York Times reported that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. recently approached NFL star Aaron Rodgers and former Minnesota governor and professional wrestler Jesse Ventura about serving as his running mate on an independent presidential ticket, and that both had welcomed the overtures.

Just how Aaron Rodgers would balance playing for the Jets, training camp and all, with  campaigning isn’t exactly clear.  Yes, it is totally laughable.  Ventura, on the other hand, is realistic, at least as these things go.

CNN’s Jake Tapper then reported Wednesday that CNN correspondent Pamela Brown met Rodgers at the Kentucky Derby in 2013 and when he learned she was with CNN, he began spouting the Sandy Hook conspiracy theories.  Rodgers claimed it was a government inside job designed to help pass gun-control laws and that there were no victims.  [Twenty children and six adults were gunned down.]

Reminder: Alex Jones was sued by victims’ families for promoting these falsehoods and was hit with a $1.5 billion judgment in civil court.

Rodgers then posted on social media, in part: “As I’m on the record saying in the past, what happened in Sandy Hook was an absolute tragedy.  I am not and have never been of the opinion that the events did not take place.”

But he didn’t refute the CNN piece.

RFK needs to select a running mate ahead of deadlines in states that stipulate the requirement of a vice-presidential candidate in order to petition for ballot access.  He said he’s announcing his pick March 26.

--House lawmakers grilled former special counsel Robert Hur for hours about his decision not to seek charges against President Biden for mishandling classified materials.  Democrats focused on Hur’s decision to include disparaging details about Biden’s memory.  “You made a choice. It was a political choice. It was the wrong choice,” said Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) who is running for the Senate.  Republicans used their five minutes to question why Hur opted not to recommend charges after finding evidence that Biden willfully retained government materials after his vice presidency.

Hur managed to tick off both sides, which means he did his job well.  In defending his report, he argued that the details about memory were necessary to explain his decision.  He also said his conclusions do not exonerate Biden, hard as Democrats tried to do just that, but rather determine there was not enough proof to meet federal prosecution thresholds.

“I did not exonerate him; that word does not appear in my report,” Hur told Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) as she read sections of the report that the congresswoman repeatedly said showed Biden was exonerated.

--The judge overseeing the Geogia election interference case on Wednesday dismissed some of the charges against former President Trump, but many other counts in the indictment remain and Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee wrote that prosecutors could seek a new indictment on the charges he dismissed.

The ruling came as McAfee was also considering a bid by defendants to have Fulton County DA Fani Willis removed from the case.

And today, Friday, McAfee said Willis can remain on the case, so long as she removes her deputy, Nathan Wade, with whom Willis had a romantic relationship.

In a devastating statement as part of his ruling, McAfee said “the established record now highlights a significant appearance of impropriety that infects the current structure of the prosecution team.”

Wade then resigned.

It seems highly unlikely that this case will go to trial before the election.

--And in a shocking development in the Stormy Daniels hush-money case that was due to go to trial March 25, the Manhattan district attorney’s office, which is accusing Donald Trump of covering up a sex scandal during and after the 2016 presidential campaign, asked for a delay of 30 days to give Trump’s lawyers time to review a new batch of records that were only recently received from federal prosecutors, who years ago investigated the hush-money payments at the center of the case.

--The Princess of Wales apologized Monday for releasing a doctored family photo of her and her children, blaming it on amateur editing fails.

Kate Middletown tweeted her apologies after leading photo agencies – including Reuters, the Associated Press, Getty and AFP – all yanked the photo over numerous signs it had been altered.

“Like many amateur photographers, I do occasionally experiment with editing,” the princess wrote.  “I wanted to express my apologies for any confusion the family photograph we shared yesterday caused.”

She ended by saying that “I hope everyone celebrating had a very happy Mother’s Day” – which was Sunday in the UK – and ending casually with “C,” for her first name, Catherine.

The palace said the photo was taken by Prince William. Issued by Kensington Palace on Sunday, it was the first official photo of Kate since her abdominal surgery nearly two months ago.

The photo shows an inconsistency in the alignment of Princess Charlotte’s left hand and that some of Charlotte’s arm appears to be missing, which would really be a story, and that Kate’s arms appear to be extra long to be able to wrap around Charlotte and Louis.

This story is indeed a big deal in the UK, and rightfully so.  Princess Anne is the only Royal left with any credibility.  She should stage a coup.  ‘You guys all suck, I’m taking over.”

--SpaceX’s Starship rocket, designed to eventually send astronauts to the moon and beyond, completed nearly an entire test flight to space on its third try on Thursday but was destroyed during its return to Earth after making it farther than ever before.

During a live webcast of the flight, SpaceX commentators said mission control lost communications with the spacecraft during its atmospheric re-entry at hypersonic speed.  The vehicle was nearing a planned splashdown in the Indian Ocean about an hour after launch from south Texas.  SpaceX then confirmed that the spacecraft had been “lost,” presumably either burning up or coming apart during re-entry or crashing into the sea.

In all, though, a highly successful test, far surpassing its first two performances, both of which were cut short by explosions minutes after launch, but, it wasn’t known why one of the key objectives, an attempt to re-ignite one of Starship’s Raptor engines while it coasted in a shallow orbit, was skipped.

SpaceX plans to conduct at least six more test flights of Starship this year, subject to regulatory approval.

--While California doesn’t have to worry about going back into drought until 2025 at the earliest, the giant reservoirs of the Colorado River Basin, Lakes Mead and Powell, which provide water to 40 million Americans, are still only about one-third full, despite the back-to-back wet winters.  Historically, they were normally at about 95% prior to decades of megadrought, according to Jay Famiglietti, a hydrologist at Arizona State University, in an interview with USA TODAY.

--Parts of Kansas and Missouri were hit by “gorilla hail” on Wednesday, a term coined by Reed Timmer, a storm chaser.  Some of the reported hail was as big as a baseball.

“When you get up to tennis ball, baseball-sized or God forbid softball-sized, that can do a tremendous amount of damage, and if you get hit in the head, that could be fatal,” said Alex Sosnowski, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather.

The National Weather Service reported one storm Wednesday indeed produced “softball-sized hail,” or 3.5-inch chunks.

Sadly, parts of Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky were then hit by fatal tornadoes Thursday night, killing at least three in Ohio at last report.

--Finally, as a proud Wake Forest alum, I note the passing, Wednesday, of “Mr. Wake Forest,” Ed Wilson, 101.

After graduating from Wake Forest in 1943, he joined the Navy, where he served on a destroyer escort in the Pacific theatre, seeing action in the battles of Iwo Jima and Okinawa and in the Philippines.

After then receiving his master’s and doctorate degrees at Harvard, Wilson returned to Wake Forest to teach “Poets of the English Romantic Period.”  Wake was in the process of moving to a new campus in Winston-Salem, and in a time of great change in the South, Wilson chaired the faculty committee that voted to end racial segregation at the University, Wake’s first black student enrolling in 1962.

In 1967, President James Ralph Scales named Wilson the University’s first provost, a roll he maintained for 16 years during Scales’ presidency and for the first part of the tenure of his successor, and he was provost, and Scales president, when I was at Wake in the late 1970s.

There is a ton of stuff I wish I would have done differently during my college years, like I wish I had taken Wilson’s class, but I loved the school, and Wilson was a constant presence on campus, always with a smile.

This was a great, beloved figure. Ed Wilson once said this of the school:

“Treasure this moment, treasure Wake Forest.  To me, one of the happy facts about Wake Forest is that on that day, way back when I heard about the new school for the first time (in 1939), the two words that leaped out were ‘Wake’ and ‘Forest.’  There is something wonderful about that name, Wake Forest. It suggests waking up to life itself at its best and suggests something green and verdant that lasts as far as the years to come.”

Ed Wilson handed me my diploma and he has a warm smile in the photo from that day as well, as do I.  RIP, Professor.

---

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces...and all the fallen.

Pray for Ukraine and the innocent in Gaza.

God bless America.

---

Gold $2161
Oil $81.01

Bitcoin: $68,600 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]

Regular Gas: $3.43; Diesel: $4.03 [$3.46 / $4.33 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 3/11-3/15

Dow Jones  -0.02%  [38714]
S&P 500  -0.1%  [5117]
S&P MidCap  -1.0%
Russell 2000  -2.1%
Nasdaq  -0.7%  [15973]

Returns for the period 1/1/24-3/15/24

Dow Jones  +2.7%
S&P 500  +7.3%
S&P MidCap  +5.1%
Russell 2000  +0.6%
Nasdaq  +6.4%

Bulls 60.9
Bear 14.5 [Investors Intelligence...reminder, and for new readers, this is a contrarian indicator and such a wide spread, and with a bull reading of 60, sometimes spells danger.  [Granted, this indicator worked better in the old days than it does today.]

Hang in there.

Happy St. Patrick’s Day! Slainte....

Brian Trumbore



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Week in Review

03/16/2024

For the week 3/11-3/15

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

Note: StocksandNews has significant ongoing costs and your support is greatly appreciated.  Please click on the gofundme link or send a check to PO Box 990, New Providence, NJ 07974.

Edition 1,300

Russians are going to the polls, Friday through Sunday, in a preordained, manipulated vote ensuring another six years for Vladimir Putin.  If he completes the term he would overtake Josef Stalin to become Russia’s longest-serving ruler since Empress Catherine the Great in the 18th century.

Thus far, the election is not going as smoothly as Putin would like it to, as he’s accused Ukraine of aiming to disrupt the vote by shelling Russia’s (self-declared) western regions as well as an attempt by Ukrainian proxies to cross into two other Russian regions, as I describe further below.

“These enemy strikes will not remain unpunished,” a visibly angry Putin said at a meeting of Russia’s Security Council, which includes military and spy chiefs. [Reuters]

There are also reports of dye being poured into ballot boxes, according to Russian media.

Yulia Navalnaya / Washington Post

“On Feb. 16, one month before the scheduled ‘presidential elections’ in Russia, my husband, Alexei Navalny, was murdered in prison on Vladimir Putin’s direct order. I never wanted to be a politician, I never wanted to speak from the rostrum or write for international media. But Putin left me no other choice. Therefore, I want to tell you a few important things that Alexei had been trying to say all these years.

“To defeat Putin, or at least seriously punish him, one must realize who he is.  Unfortunately, too many people in the West still see him as a legitimate political leader, argue about his ideology and look for political logic in his actions.  This is a big mistake that breeds new mistakes and helps Putin to deceive his opponents again and again.

“Putin is not a politician, he’s a gangster. Alexei Navalny became famous in Russia and hated by Putin precisely because, from the beginning of his fight, he openly described Putin and his allies as gangsters who had seized and used power only for their own enrichment and to fulfill their personal ambitions.

“Look at Putin as the leader of a mafia group. You will grasp his brutality, cynicism, penchant for violence, fondness for ostentatious luxury – and his willingness to lie and kill.  All his talks about religion, history, culture and politics might mislead Westerners.   But in Russia, everyone knows that gangsters have always loved to flaunt large crosses, pose in churches, and present themselves as fighters for higher justice and traditional values, which in their understanding boil down to a professional criminal’s ruthless code of conduct.

“Look at Putin as a mafia boss and you will understand how to punish him and hasten his end. Status is very important to criminal leaders – both within their gangs and in the outside world. Putin seized power in Russia, where he can declare himself the legitimate president or even crown himself as heir to the Russian czars. But why do democratic countries continue to recognize his criminal authority as legitimate?  Why do fairly elected world leaders put themselves on the same level as a criminal who has for decades falsified elections, killed, imprisoned or forced out of the country all his critics, and now has unleashed a bloody war in Europe by attacking Ukraine?

“I’m not promising that refusing to recognize the results of the Russian presidential elections this weekend would lead to the instant collapse of the Putin government.  But it would be an important signal to civil society in Russia and the elites still loyal to Putin, as well as to the world, that Russia is ruled not by a president recognized by all, but by someone who is despised and publicly condemned.  Only then will those who remain loyal to Putin start to see that the one way to return to normal economic and political life is to get rid of him.

“To criminal leaders, money is crucial.  Putin is indifferent to the suffering of ordinary people both in Ukraine and in Russia.  He doesn’t care about Russia’s economy – as long as there is money enough to sustain the army and the security services and to fill his own pockets and those of his associates. The only thing that truly hurts Putin is loss of income.  Though it might be difficult to target him directly at this point, it’s possible to deprive his inner circle, his representatives and decision-makers, of their ill-gotten gains.

“Deprive gangsters of their wealth, and they will lose their loyalty to their leader.  This is why I call for the maximum expansion and careful enforcement of sanctions against all more or less prominent Putin-allied politicians, so-called businessmen, civil servants and law enforcement officials.  By depriving thousands of influential figures of their capital and assets, you lay the groundwork for internal divisions – and ultimately the collapse of the regime.

“Extensive support for Ukraine and its army in the fight against Putin’s unjustified aggression has become the natural moral choice for Western countries. A military defeat for Putin in Ukraine should push his government to the brink of collapse.  However, there have been cases in history where defeat hasn’t led to a dictator’s fall.  Saddam Hussein’s defeat in Kuwait, for instance, did not end his rule; Hussein and his gang terrorized the people of Iraq and neighboring countries for another decade.  To ensure that Putin’s rule doesn’t survive another crisis, including those caused by military setbacks in Ukraine, it is essential to support the forces that continue to resist from within Russia....

“My husband’s most recent appeal to Russians was to participate in the ‘Noon Against Putin’ campaign. He asked all of Putin’s opponents to come to polling stations at noon on March 17, election day.  The goal is not to influence the voting results, which will be falsified anyway, and it is not to support any of Putin’s puppets allowed on the ballot.  Alexei wanted this to be a nationwide protest, emphasizing the illegitimacy of Putin’s election and the resistance of Russian civil society.

“I call on political leaders of the West to help all Russian citizens who stand up against Putin’s gang. I urge you to finally hear the voice of free Russia and take a principled stand against him – to not recognize the results of the falsified elections, to not recognize Putin as the legitimate president of Russia.

“The world must finally realize that Putin is not who he wants to appear to be. He is a usurper, a tyrant, a war criminal – and a murderer.”

---

FBI Director Christopher Wray, testifying before the House Intelligence Committee on Tuesday, said terrorist threats toward the U.S. have reached a “whole other level” since the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas on Israel and the war that followed. 

Wray told Congress: “You’ve seen a veritable rogue’s gallery of foreign terrorist organizations calling for terrorist attacks against us in a way that we haven’t seen in a long, long time.”

---

Israel and Hamas....

--President Joe Biden said Saturday in an interview with MSNBC that he believes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is “hurting Israel more than helping Israel” in how he is approaching the war against Hamas in Gaza.

Biden expressed support for Israel’s right to pursue Hamas after the Oct. 7 attack but said of Netanyahu that “he must pay more attention to the innocent lives being lost as a consequence of the actions taken.”

Biden has been warning for months that Israel is losing international support over the mounting civilian casualties, noting in the interview that “it’s contrary to what Israel stands for.  And I think it’s a big mistake.”  The president also said an Israeli invasion of Rafah, where more than 1.3 million Palestinians are sheltering, is a “red line” for him, but he didn’t say he’d cut off weapons like the Iron Dome missile interceptors.

“It is a red line,” he said, when asked about Rafah, “but I’m never going to leave Israel. The defense of Israel is still critical, so there’s no red line where I’m going to cut off all weapons so they don’t have the Iron Dome to protect them.”

Israel has said that, barring a total surrender by Hamas, it has to launch an assault on Rafah because it’s the last bastion of the Iran-backed group.  Israeli military officials estimate 5,000 to 8,000 Hamas fighters are holed up there.  Israel indicated it would be prepared to move in the city during Ramadan if there’s no truce.

--So, Sunday, Netanyahu said Israelis overwhelmingly support his policies and rejected President Biden’s assertion that the war in Gaza was hurting Israel.

“If he meant by that that I’m pursuing private policies against the majority, the wish of the majority of Israelis, and that this is hurting the interests of Israel, then he’s wrong on both counts,” the prime minister said in a social media post Sunday.  “The vast majority are united as never before.”

Netanyahu said Israelis believe that if the country doesn’t fight, it will see a repetition of the Oct. 7 attack.  That, he said, would be “bad for Israel, bad for the Palestinians, bad for the future of peace in the Middle East.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Mr. Biden’s vocal criticism of Israel can’t be separated from his desire to appease his party’s increasingly insistent anti-Israel wing.  He wants to avoid a protest spectacle at the Democratic convention in August, and he’s worried about losing Michigan as young people and Arab-Americans defect.  It sounds like his Israel policy increasingly runs through Dearborn, Michigan....

“There are costs to this Dearborn strategy toward Israel – not least its message to Hamas and its backers in Iran that their strategy of putting civilians in harm’s way is working politically.  Why agree to a hostage swap if their current strategy is driving a wedge between Israel and the U.S.?

“Mr. Biden’s red-line threats don’t help Israel or his political standing at home.  The best way he can help himself politically is to let Israel win the war as rapidly as possible.”

--A ship taking almost 200 tons of food to Gaza left a port in Cyprus early on Tuesday, in a pilot project to open a new sea route of aid to a population on the brink of famine.  The charity ship Open Arms was towing a barge containing flour, rice and protein. The ship belongs to a Spanish charity of the same name. 

This is a long process.  Some have said because of the heavy barge, it could take three days to arrive at a location not disclosed, and at a dock not exactly built.

The mission, mostly funded by the UAE, is being organized by World Central Kitchen, while the Spanish charity supplies the ship.

“Our goal is to establish a maritime highway of boats and barges stocked with millions of meals continuously headed towards Gaza,” said WCK founder Jose Andres and CEO Erin Gore in a statement.

The ship got to the coast of Gaza Friday.

--Hezbollah fired about 100 Katyusha rockets at northern Israel on Tuesday, the heaviest barrage since October.  The Lebanese militia group said its rockets were a response to an Israeli airstrike Monday night in Baalbek in northeastern Lebanon.  I’ve been to Baalbek (and got out of there as quickly as I entered), a major Hezbollah stronghold.  Israel then retaliated later Tuesday with more strikes against two Hezbollah military command centers and weapons depots, also in Baalbek, which residents of the area say had been used to support its war efforts in Syria.  Israel said the Monday strike in Baalbek was retaliation for drones dispatched to the Golan Heights.

My friend in Beirut, Michael Young, told me last fall the conflict wouldn’t spread, but this week’s action wasn’t a good sign.

--David Ignatius / Washington Post...on the Biden-Netanyahu rift:

“A deeper disagreement [than the prospects for an invasion of Rafah] is about whether Netanyahu and his right-wing government really have united the country behind a clear endgame for the conflict.  U.S. intelligence analysts were openly skeptical of Netanyahu’s leadership prospects in their annual threat assessment, delivered to Congress this week.

“‘Netanyahu’s viability as a leader as well as his governing coalition of far-right and ultraorthodox parties that pursued hardline policies on Palestinian and security issues may be in jeopardy,’ the threat assessment noted.  ‘Distrust of Netanyahu’s ability to rule has deepened and broadened. ...A different, more moderate government is a possibility.’

“That’s unusually blunt language for a public intelligence report, and Israeli officials protested what they saw as an effort to meddle in Israeli internal politics by, in effect, ‘weaponizing’ the intelligence reporting.  Netanyahu’s team was already peeved about what it saw as an attempt by Vice President Harris to drive a wedge into Israeli politics when she said on CBS News on Sunday: ‘It’s important to distinguish and to not conflate the Israeli government with the Israeli people.’

“What’s happening here is that long-standing private disputes are becoming public.  For months, administration officials have explored ways they might prod other Israeli leaders, such as former army chief of staff Benny Gantz, to challenge Netanyahu, who polls show is deeply unpopular at home.  But trying to steer political outcomes with a democratic ally can easily backfire.

“The most fundamental disagreement is about the state of the war itself.  Netanyahu speaks as though victory is close. That’s why he wants to take Rafah soon and, in his mind, be done with it.  But U.S. officials think Israel is overestimating the damage it has done to Hamas, and doubt that Netanyahu still has a pathway for securing Gaza and stabilizing the region, even if he demolishes the four battalions in Rafah.

“Here, again, the U.S. intelligence community offered a pointed assessment in Monday’s testimony: ‘Israel probably will face lingering armed resistance from Hamas for years to come, and the military will struggle to neutralize Hamas’ underground infrastructure.’

“Israeli officials offer detailed statistics to back their claim that the war has been effective.  When the fighting began, Hamas and other militias had about 35,000 fighters; of those, more than 25,000 have been killed, captured or injured, the officials said. Of the smaller subset of Hamas regular fighters, they said 12,000 have been taken off the battlefield, including about 60 percent of battalion commanders.

“U.S. intelligence estimates project ‘far fewer’ Hamas casualties, a U.S. official said.  That’s in part because the United States counts battlefield casualties differently.  But there’s a stark difference between Israeli and American evaluations of the campaign.

“The tunnel war has been the most vexing part of the Gaza assault.  Israeli officials say they spent weeks devising tactics to attack a vast network of zigs and zags that they estimate is 380 miles long, all within a territory just 25 miles long and up to 7 ½ miles wide.  Israeli officials say they’ve destroyed about 60 percent of Hamas’ command-and-control facilities in the tunnels and 90 percent of its buried arsenal of rockets, which totaled 15,000 to 20,000 when the war began.

“But Israel officials concede they’ve only begun destroying Hamas’ underground empire.  Less than 30 percent of the tunnels have been captured, several officials said.  And even now, Hamas still is operating smuggling tunnels into Egypt.

“Finally, on the baseline question of what Gaza will look like ‘the day after,’ the U.S. and Israeli officials agree there is still no clear answer. That’s one reason Biden mistrusts Netanyahu. The White House doubts the Israeli leader has a sound strategy for ending a conflict that has brutalized Israel, has had a shattering effect on Palestinian civilians and is increasingly harmful to U.S. interests around the world.”

Thursday, Senate Majority Leader Schumer delivered a pointed speech on the Senate floor excoriating Benjamin Netanyahu as a major obstacle to peace in the Middle East and calling for new leadership in Israel.  A rather extraordinary statement by an American politician against a duly elected democratic leader, and ally.

“I believe in his heart, his highest priority is the security of Israel,” said Schumer, the highest-ranking Jewish elected official in the U.S.  “However, I also believe Prime Minister Netanyahu has lost his way by allowing his political survival to take precedence over the best interests of Israel.”

Schumer added: “He has been too willing to tolerate the civilian toll in Gaza, which is pushing support for Israel worldwide to historic lows.  Israel cannot survive if it becomes a pariah.”

And: “At this critical juncture, I believe a new election is the only way to allow for a healthy and open decision-making process about the future of Israel, at a time when so many Israelis have lost their confidence in the vision and direction of their government,” Schumer said, noting that a majority of the Israeli public “will recognize the need for change.”

While the Majority Leader’s speech was the latest reflection of the growing dissatisfaction among Democrats, it was totally inappropriate for Schumer to make such a statement, in his position, so publicly. 

Schumer asserted he wasn’t trying to dictate any electoral outcome in Israel, but that’s hardly how it sounded.

--Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell lashed out at Schumer immediately on the Senate floor, saying, “Either we respect their decisions or we disrespect their democracy.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) called Schumer’s speech “inappropriate.”

“It’s just plain wrong for an American leader to play such a divisive role in Israeli politics while our closest ally in the region is in an existential battle for its very survival,” Johnson said.

Netanyahu’s Likud party rejected Schumer’s call for new elections, saying Israel was “not a banana republic” and that Netanyahu’s policy had wide public support.

“Contrary to Schumer’s words, the Israeli public supports a total victory over Hamas, rejects any international dictates to establish a Palestinian terrorist state, and opposes the return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza,” the Likud statement said.

“Senator Schumer is expected to respect Israel’s elected government and not undermine it. This is always true, and even more so in wartime.”

--Friday, Israel described the latest proposals for a hostage deal by Hamas as unrealistic but said a delegation would leave for Qatar to discuss Israel’s position on a potential agreement.  A statement from the prime minister’s office said Netanyahu had approved plans for a military operation in Rafah and was preparing operational issues and the evacuation of the civilian population.

--A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll has nearly half of American voters (45%) believing President Biden should pressure Israel to ease the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, with 49% of those between the ages of 18 to 34 holding this opinion, and 48% of those between ages 35 to 49.

Views that Biden should do more to help the Palestinians are more widespread among Democrats (69%) and those who identify as independent/other (49%).  Just 18% of Republicans share that belief. 

---

This Week in Ukraine....

--President Zelensky said on Monday that the situation along the front of Ukraine’s war with Russia was the best it had been in three months, with Moscow’s troops no longer advancing after their capture last month of the eastern city of Avdiivka.  Zelensky, in an interview with French media, said Ukraine had improved its strategic position despite shortages of weaponry, but suggested the situation could change again if new supplies were not forthcoming.

“We have had some difficulties because of shortages of artillery shells, an air blockade, Russian long range weapons and the great intensity of Russian drone attacks.  We have worked in very efficient fashion... against Russian aviation.  We have recovered in our situation in the east.  The advance of Russian troops has been stopped,” he said.

After Russia captured Avdiivka and some surrounding villages, it gave the Kremlin’s forces breathing room in defending the Russia-held regional center of Donetsk to the east.

But in the past week, Ukrainian military spokespeople have said that Russian forces were no longer advancing and Ukrainian troops had improved their position.

Russian troops had levelled everything in months of bombardments of Avdiivka, Zelensky said. “We can no longer speak of a city as everything has been destroyed in Avdiivka.”  Russian forces enjoyed superiority in terms of long range weapons.  But Zelensky said Ukrainian forces had downed large numbers of Russian aircraft and “continue to act in a strong manner in the Black Sea.”

The president also said he believed a Russian missile strike on Odesa while he was visiting there with Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis showed that Vladimir Putin had “taken leave of the real world.”  “Was he aiming at me? That’s not what matters now,” Zelensky said.  “When you make a cruise missile strike a few hundred meters from a European leader, I think you have to be truly ill.”

--And then there is the issue of Pope Francis and a rather unhappy Kyiv, after Francis’ comments that Ukraine should “show the courage of the white flag” and open talks with Russia to end the two-year-old war.

Specifically, an advance transcript of the interview has Francis saying some of the following:

“But I think that the strongest one is the one who looks at the situation, thinks about the people and has the courage of the white flag, and negotiates,” Francis said, adding that talks should take place with the help of international powers.  “The word negotiate is a courageous word.  When you see that you are defeated, that things are not going well, you have to have the courage to negotiate,” Francis said.  [Reuters]

The pontiff made the comments in an interview, recorded last month, with Swiss broadcaster RSI that is due to be aired on March 20.  The papal ambassador to Ukraine was told the pope should refrain from statements that “legalize the right of might and encourage further disregard for the norms of international law,” a statement on the foreign ministry’s website said.

The statement said the pope “would be expected to send signals to the world community about the need to immediately join forces to ensure the victory of good over evil.”  Ukraine, it said, “seeks peace like no other state.  This peace, however, must be fair and based on the principles of the UN Charter and the peace formula proposed by the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky.”

Zelensky rebuffed the pope’s comments on Sunday.  He said distant religious figures should not get involved in “virtual mediation between someone who wants to live and someone who wants to destroy you.”

Zelensky praised the work of Ukrainian chaplains on the frontline.  “They are on the frontline, protecting life and humanity, supporting with prayer, conversation, and deeds.

“This is what the church is – it is together with people, not two-and-a-half thousand kilometers away somewhere, virtually mediating between someone who wants to live and someone who wants to destroy you.”

Earlier on Sunday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on social media: “Our flag is a yellow and blue one.  This is the flag by which we live, die, and prevail. We shall never raise any other flags.”

Ukraine’s ambassador to the Vatican compared the Pope’s comments to those who advocated talks with Adolf Hitler during World War II.  [BBC News]

Zelensky’s peace plan calls for a withdrawal of Russian troops, a return to Ukraine’s 1991 borders, and due process to hold Russia accountable for its actions.  Russia says it cannot hold any talks under such a premise.

--The Biden administration announced another package of military aid to Ukraine worth up to $300 million on Tuesday after months of warning there was no money left, with officials saying the new funding became available as a result of savings made in weapons contracts.

National security adviser Jake Sullivan announced the package in a briefing at the White House Tuesday.

“When Russian troops advance, and its guns fire, Ukraine does not have enough ammunition to fire back. That’s costing terrain.  It’s costing lives. And it’s costing us, the United States and the NATO alliance, strategically,” Sullivan said.

The new package includes much-needed artillery ammunition, anti-aircraft missiles, anti-armor systems and more.

The European Union agreed on Wednesday to provide 5 billion euro ($5.47bn) for military aid to Ukraine as part of a revamp of an EU-run assistance fund.  The fund operates as a giant cashback scheme, giving EU members refunds for sending munitions to other countries.

--Ukrainian drones attacked eight regions across Russia, knocking out at least one oil refinery in what Reuters described as a “major attack” early Tuesday with more than two dozen drones.  A refinery in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod region, which is about 480 miles from the Ukrainian border, erupted in flames; a second depot that was attacked, in the Oryol region, is almost 100 miles from Ukraine.

--A Russian Il-76 military transport plane crashed shortly after take-off Tuesday, state-run TASS reported.  No word on the fate of the reported 15 on board (8 crew, 7 passengers).

--Tuesday, Polish President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Donald Tusk visited the White House Tuesday, a day after Duda warned in the Washington Post, “NATO members must raise their defense spending to 3 percent of GDP” (from 2 percent).

“The war in Ukraine has clearly shown that the United States is and should remain the leader in security issues in Europe and the world,” the Polish president said in televised remarks Monday.  “However, other NATO countries must also take greater responsibility for the security of the entire alliance and intensively modernize and strengthen their troops,” he added.

Tusk had a message for Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, who has refused to take up bipartisan legislation passed in the Senate that would send another $60 billion in military aid to Ukraine.  The House last passed a supplemental funding bill for Ukraine in December 2022.

“This is not some political skirmish that [only] matters on the American political scene,” Tusk told reporters.  “Mr. Johnson’s failure to make a positive decision will cost thousands of lives,” he said, and added, “He takes personal responsibility for that.”

Johnson “must be aware,” said Tusk, that “the fate of millions of people depends on his individual decisions. And thousands of lives in Ukraine today and tomorrow depend on his decisions.”

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski also pleaded with Johnson to authorize a vote.  Russia “persecutes religious minorities, including Baptists” in occupied Ukraine, Sikorski said.  [Defense One]

--President Vladimir Putin said that Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons if there is a threat to its statehood, sovereignty or independence, voicing hope that the U.S. would refrain from actions that could trigger a nuclear conflict.

Putin’s statement was another blunt warning to the West ahead of a presidential vote this week in which he’s all but certain to win another six-year term.

In an interview with Russian state television released early Wednesday, Putin described U.S. President Joe Biden as a veteran politician who fully understands possible dangers of escalation, and said that he doesn’t think that the world is heading to a nuclear war.

At the same time, he emphasized that Russia’s nuclear forces are in full readiness and “from the military-technical viewpoint, we’re prepared.”

Putin said that in line with the country’s security doctrine, Moscow is ready to use nuclear weapons in case of a threat to “the existence of the Russian state, our sovereignty and independence.”

Putin has talked about his readiness to use nukes since launching the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Asked in the interview if he has ever considered using battlefield nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Putin responded that there has been no need for that.

He also voiced confidence that Moscow will achieve its goals in Ukraine and issued a blunt warning to Western allies, declaring that “the nations that say they have no red lines regarding Russia should realize that Russia won’t have any red lines regarding them either.”

And, while holding open the door for talks, Putin emphasized that Russia will hold onto its gains and would seek firm guarantees from the West.

[Foreign Policy magazine reported that Western officials confirmed that Russia has moved tactical nuclear weapons from its own borders into neighboring Belarus, a move intended to scare the West into paring back its support for Ukraine, while ramping up pressure on NATO’s eastern flank.]

--Russian authorities reported another major attack by Ukrainian drones early Wednesday.  The Defense Ministry said air defenses downed 58 drones over six regions. One of the drones hit an oil refinery in the Ryazan region.

Ukraine reported more Russian attacks early Wednesday, with a strike killing two people in the town of Myrnohrad in the eastern Donetsk region.  A five-story building in the northern city of Sumy was also struck by a Russian drone, with eight injured.

In President Zelensky’s hometown of Kryvyi Rih, in the central Dnipropetrovsk region, at least four were killed by a Russian missile, according to the regional governor.

“Every day our cities and villages suffer similar attacks.  Every day Ukraine loses people because of Russian evil,” Zelensky said.

--Russia claimed that its military and security forces killed 234 fighters while thwarting a cross-border ground assault by Ukraine-based Russian opponents.  The Defense Ministry blamed the attack on the “Kyiv regime” and “Ukraine’s terrorist formations,” insisting that the Russian military and border forces were able to stop the attackers, who it said also lost seven tanks and five armored vehicles.   It’s not possible to verify any of this, but cross-border attacks in Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions have occurred since the war began and have been the subject of claims and counterclaims.

A senior Ukrainian intelligence official said on Thursday that armed groups he described as Russians opposed to the Kremlin were pressing an incursion into Russian territory and had turned two border regions into “active combat zones.”

The governor of the Belgorod region did say there were a number of casualties in the village of Kozinka and that “damage is very serious.”

Then today, Friday, Vladimir Putin, as I alluded to in my opening, claimed armed Ukrainian proxies numbering about 2,500, with 35 tanks and 40 armored vehicles, had entered Russia and that “60% of the soldiers were killed,” which seems to be an impossibility.  Ukrainian officials did confirm armed groups carried out attacks in Belgorod and Kursk regions.

--Russian drones and missiles struck communications infrastructure in northeastern Ukraine on Thursday, knocking out television and radio signals in five cities and towns, in an apparent attempt to cut people from information, officials in Kyiv said.  The overnight attack, which involved 36 drones, could indicate another pattern of Russian aerial attacks more than two years into the full-scale invasion that has seen Moscow mostly target energy and military production at different junctures, aside from slaughtering civilians in their apartment buildings and markets.

--Two people were killed after Russia unleashed a third overnight mass drone attack on Ukraine in two days, authorities said on Friday.

Kyiv’s air force said 27 Iranian-made drones had been shot down by air defenses over seven regions across the country, including around the capital.

Two people were killed in the central Ukrainian city of Vinnytsia when a residential building was damaged.

The air force said Russian forces had fired eight missiles in eastern and central Ukraine, but offered no further details.

And then we learned of another Russian missile strike today, Friday, on Odesa that killed at least 20 people and injured more than 70 at last count (that was 70 that were ‘hospitalized’ according to the BBC).

A first missile struck houses and when emergency crews arrived at the scene a second missile landed (known as a “double tap”), authorities said.  Emergency services workers were among the dead.  As heinous as it gets. Sickening.

President Zelensky vowed revenge.

It was just March 2 that a Russian drone struck a multi-story building in Odesa, killing 12, including five children.

--French President Emmanuel Macron warned that the European Union would face an “existential” threat of a Russian invasion unless Vladimir Putin’s forces are defeated in Ukraine.

“Who can think for a second that President Putin, who hasn’t respected any of his limits or commitments, would stop there?” Macron asked during a joint interview with TF1 and France 2 television channels on Thursday.  “The security of Europe and French people are at stake.”

And: “If Russia wins this war, Europe’s credibility will be reduced to zero,” Macron said.  “Deciding to abstain or vote against support to Ukraine, it’s not choosing peace, it’s choosing defeat.  It’s different.”

--The UN human rights expert on Russia said on Monday that the death of opposition politician Alexei Navalny was Moscow’s responsibility as he was either killed in prison or died from detention conditions that amounted to torture.

“So the Russian government is responsible, one way or another, for his death,” Mariana Katzarova told Reuters on the sidelines of an event on Russian political prisoners at the United Nations in Geneva.  She cited long periods of solitary confinement which she said amounted to about 300 days, which could have caused “a slow death over several years.”

Katzarova was “very worried” about opposition politician Vladimir Kara-Murza.  “Ever since the death of Alexei Navalny, there is no day passing without asking myself, who is the next Navalny?” she said.  “And there will be a next Navalny, for sure, with this level of repression.”

Katzarova, a Bulgarian former investigator for Amnesty International, is one of dozens of independent human rights experts mandated by the United Nations to report on specific themes or crises, though the only one reporting on one of the five states with a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.  Civil society groups say that around 600-1,000 political prisoners are being detained in Russia for voicing opposition to the Russian invasion of Ukraine or refusing to fight in it.

--Navalny’s longtime aide, Leonid Volkov, was assaulted with a hammer in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius on Tuesday, former Navalny spokesperson Kira Yarmysh said.

“Volkov has just been attacked outside his house. Someone broke a car window and sprayed tear gas in his eyes, after which the attacker started hitting Leonid with a hammer,” she wrote on X.  Yarmysh posted images showing Volkov with a bruise on his forehead, blood coming from a leg wound and vehicle damage.

A large part of Navalny’s political vehicle, the Anti-Corruption Foundation, which includes Volkov, live in Vilnius after fleeing Russia.

Volkov himself then said the attack was politically motivated.

He said it was “an obvious, typical, gangster greeting from Putin, from bandit St. Petersburg,” but gave no more details about his attacker.

Volkov’s wife, Anna Biryukova, posted on X: “We will all work even more. And with even greater anger.”

Volkov said his attacker used a meat hammer and “literally wanted to make a schnitzel out of me.”

He urged Russians to head for polling stations at the same time on Sunday for a peaceful protest that supporters are calling “midday against Putin.”

Thursday, the head of Lithuania’s State Security Department, Darius Jauniskis, told reporters the attack on Volkov was the work of Russian special services.  “We need to pay more attention to the security of the Russian opposition (based in Lithuania),” he added.

---

Wall Street and the Economy

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the Fed needs “just a bit more evidence” inflation is headed toward its 2% target before lowering borrowing costs.  “We’re not far from it,” he said.

According to a Reuters poll of 108 economists, taken March 5-11, the Fed will cut its benchmark rate in June.  [72 said it would come in June, 17 in May and 19 July or later.]  The Fed’s upcoming dot plot is likely to show three cuts in 2024, which to me, fully understanding the political calendar and the Fed’s reluctance to be seen influencing the vote, would mean June, July and then a pause, as they’ve talked about, prior to the Sept. 17-18 meeting, the November FOMC gathering coming in the days after the Election, Nov. 5, and then a meeting in December.

If they cut rates in June and pause, that means possibly cutting rates in September, which I just don’t see.

Well, I wrote the above Monday, prior to this week’s crucial inflation data, and February consumer and producer prices came in hotter-than-expected, a la January, which means the Fed certainly isn’t going to act before June, and maybe June is in question.

The CPI rose 0.4%, ditto ex-food and energy, and for the 12 months, headline CPI was 3.2% vs. 3.1% prior, and the core rate was 3.8% vs. the prior month’s 3.9%, but above expectations for 3.7%.

Producer prices surged...0.6% on headline, 0.3% core over January, and 1.6% year-over-year, 2.0% ex-food and energy.  The 1.6% headline figure was expected to be 0.9%.

Bottom line...inflation is sticky and stubbornly high.

None of this is good for the upcoming personal consumption expenditures index, PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer, as core CPI of 3.8% is not exactly the targeted 2%.  [January’s core PCE was 2.8%, the next reading for this one March 29.]

So now we wait for next week’s Federal Open Market Committee confab and Chair Powell’s words of wisdom, and market guidance, if any, at his press conference.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said the Fed needs to wait longer before cutting interest rates.  Dimon said he wouldn’t start lowering rates until after June.

Two other economic notes...February retail sales were up 0.6%, vs. a prior revised decline of 1.1%, with the number ex-autos, 0.3%.  February industrial production was up 0.1%.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for first-quarter growth is at 2.3%.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.74%, down 14 basis points on the week, but this will spike back up next week with the rise in Treasury yields.

On a different topic, late last Friday, after I posted, the Senate narrowly averted a partial government shutdown, as it approved spending legislation for several government agencies just hours before current funding was due to expire.  The bipartisan vote was 75-22, the Senate approving a $467.5 billion spending package that will fund agriculture, transportation, housing, energy, veterans and other programs through the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30.  President Biden then signed it into law.  The House had handily approved it earlier in the week.

But action in the Senate was delayed as some conservative pressed for votes on immigration and other topics, which all failed.  Congress has until March 22 to work on a much larger package of spending bills, covering the military, homeland security, health care and other services.  Taken together, the two packages would cost $1.66 trillion.

Far-right Republicans have pushed for deeper spending cuts to tame a $34.5 trillion national debt.

As usual, all these measures were to have been enacted last Oct. 1st, the start of the 2024 fiscal year.

And this next package will get testy as it gets wrapped up in talks surrounding U.S. aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, on top of the security issue at the U.S.-Mexico border.

House Speaker Mike Johnson and Republicans say they want to pass border and immigration legislation before sending aid to allies, and some of those policy pushes, lawmakers say, have clouded the government funding picture.

President Biden’s proposed $7.3 trillion budget for the next fiscal year beginning Oct. 1, is dead on arrival, as all budgets from the White House are initially in a divided Congress, but in raising taxes on the wealthy and large corporations, and proposing to lower the costs of prescription drugs, child care and housing, he now has his campaign talking points.

Europe and Asia

Just one broad economic indicator of note this week, with Eurostat reporting that January industrial production in the eurozone fell 3.1% over December, and was down 6.7% year-over-year, befitting the lousy manufacturing PMI data we’ve been seeing in the region.

Netherlands: Dutch anti-Islam populist leader Geert Wilders abandoned his bid to become prime minister, despite his party’s big win in the 2023 elections.

“I can only become prime minister if ALL parties in the coalition support it. That was not the case,” he wrote on X.

Wilders’ Freedom Party won the most votes last year, but needed the support of other parties to form a coalition and no one wanted to be with him.  So talks continue with three other parties on the shape of a new government.

Turning to Asia...China reported on February inflation after I posted last Friday night and it was 0.7% year-over-year vs. -0.8% prior, but prices, which were up after six consecutive months of decline, were helped by a holiday-driven consumption boom, i.e., this was an anomaly.  Producer prices in the month fell 2.7% Y/Y.

Japan’s final Q4 GDP figure came in at 0.4% annualized, better than the initial estimate for a 0.4% contraction, government data showed on Monday. The revised figure, which was less than economists’ median forecast for a 1.1% uptick, meant Japan’s economy – now the world’s fourth-largest behind Germany – avoided a technical recession thanks to companies’ stronger-than-expected spending on plants and equipment.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP grew 0.1% compared with the initial 0.1% drop reading. The upward revision came amid growing market expectations that the Bank of Japan could ditch negative interest rates as early as this month. The BOJ holds a two-day policy meeting on March 18-19.

And related to the meeting, Japan’s largest union group announced stronger-than-expected annual wage deals Friday, with Rengo, a federation of unions, saying its members have so far secured deals averaging 5.28%, a figure that far outpaces the initial 3.8% tally of a year ago – itself the biggest in 30 years.

Separately, February producer prices in Japan rose 0.6% year-over-year.

Street Bytes

--Stocks initially ignored the inflation data and the prospect that Fed rate cuts could be further pushed out, as it’s been more about the strong economy, and what that foretells for earnings expectations.  But by week’s end, the markets couldn’t ignore the highest yields of the month and the implications of the Fed needing to wait even further.

Overall, stocks finished down but just fractionally.  The Dow Jones lost a mere 8 points to 38714, -0.02%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.1% and Nasdaq 0.7%. The S&P did hit a new record closing high of 5175 on Tuesday.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 5.33%  2-yr. 4.73%  10-yr. 4.31%  30-yr. 4.43%

We started the week with the 2-yr. at 4.48% and the 10-yr. at 4.08%, and then the inflation figures Tuesday and Thursday abruptly ended what had been a strong March rally in Treasuries.

--Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil giant Aramco boosted its dividend despite falling profit on lower oil prices and volumes, showing the state’s continued dependence on oil revenue as it seeks to diversify.  The profit of $121.3 billion in 2023 was down from $161.1 billion in 2022, but still the second highest on record, Aramco said last Sunday as it reported dividends of $97.8 billion, up 30%.

The Saudi government owns 82.2% of Aramco and heavily relies on the dividends, which made up 62% of total state revenues last year.

CEO Amin Nasser said he expects global oil demand for 2024 at 104 million barrels a day, up from an average of 102.4 million barrels in 2023.  The state’s economic agenda, known as Vision 2030, is spearheaded by the sovereign Public Investment Fund, which owns 16% of Aramco, after a fresh transfer by the government of 8% to companies PIF owns last week.

Aramco said capital investments were at $49.7 billion in 2023, up from $38.8 billion in 2022.  It forecast capital investments between $48 billion and $58 billion this year, growing until the middle of the decade.

The International Energy Agency on Thursday raised its view on 2024 oil demand growth for a fourth time since November, though it remains less bullish than OPEC.  The IEA in its latest report sees global demand rising 1.3 million bpd vs. OPEC’s 2.25 million bpd, a big gap.  [Amin Nasser’s view above is Aramco’s, not OPEC’s.]

The IEA had initially forecast 2024 demand growth of 860,000 barrels per day in June 2023.  Demand rose by 2.3 million bpd last year.

--A former Boeing employee who raised quality-control and safety concerns over the company’s aircraft production was found dead last week, according to authorities in South Carolina.

John Barnett, 62, was a quality manager with Boeing who retired in 2017 after several decades with the company.  He died March 9 from what appeared to be a self-inflicted gunshot wound, the Charleston County coroner’s office said in a statement.

“We are saddened by Mr. Barnett’s passing, and our thoughts are with his family and friends,” Boeing said in a statement.

In a 2019 New York Times story, Barnett was one of several whistleblowers who raised quality issues at Boeing’s South Carolina plant where the company builds its 787 Dreamliner aircraft. Barnett said he had discovered clusters of metal shavings left near electrical systems for flight controls, which he said could have “catastrophic” results if the shavings penetrated the wiring.

Word of Barnett’s death didn’t become news until late Monday night.

--New Zealand’s Transport Accident Investigation Committee said Tuesday that it was seizing the cockpit voice and flight data recorders of a LATAM Airlines Boeing 787 jet as part of an investigation into a mid-flight accident that injured more than 50 passengers and crew.

The Sydney-Auckland flight dropped mid-air on Monday without warning and essentially, anyone not wearing a seat belt hit the ceiling. 

But we then learned a flight attendant may have inadvertently pushed a switch on the pilot’s seat during meal service that sent the pilot straight into the controls, which pushed down the plane’s nose, according to the Wall Street Journal.  The pilot then recovered control and landed the plane safely.

--The New York Times reported Tuesday that Boeing failed 33 of 89 audits by the Federal Aviation Administration on the manufacturing process for the 737 MAX, the plane involved in a door panel blowout mid-air in January.

In a statement, Boeing said: “We continue to implement immediate changes and develop a comprehensive action plan to strengthen safety and quality and build the confidence of our customers and their passengers.

Monday, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said that Boeing needs to make “a serious transformation” around its safety and manufacturing quality.

Over the weekend the Wall Street Journal reported that the Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into the Jan. 5 blowout on the Alaska Airlines jet.  That followed the company’s admission it couldn’t find records that the National Transportation Safety Board sought for work done on the panel at a Boeing factory.

Boeing then said Tuesday it would work with employees found to have violated company manufacturing procedures to make sure they understand instructions for their jobs, which is pathetic that the company has to say this!

“The vast majority of violations found by the FAA involved workers not following Boeing’s approved procedures,” Stan Deal, president of Boeing’s commercial plane division, said in a memo to employees.

--Boeing said on Tuesday it had delivered 27 airplanes in February, down one unit from the same month a year ago, as the planemaker faces curbs on production growth, owing to the Jan. 5 accident involving a door plug on the Alaska Air flight that became detached during flight. In response, the FAA grounded the MAX 9 for several weeks and has temporarily capped Boeing’s production of the MAX.

In line with the above, shares of Southwest Airlines fell heavily on Tuesday as the company said it plans to reduce capacity and reevaluate its full-year financial outlook because of fewer expected aircraft deliveries from Boeing.

Southwest said in a regulatory filing that Boeing expects to deliver 46 737-8 planes this year, after the company previously anticipated 79 737 MAX aircraft deliveries, which included 58 737-8 planes, but CEO Bob Jordan said he “would not be surprised” if the latest forecast changed again, after the company highlighted the need to reduce capacity and “re-optimize schedules” for the second half of 2024.

Alaska Air Group also said its 2024 capacity plans were still in flux due to the Boeing crisis.  The airline does not expect to get all of the 47 planned aircraft deliveries from Boeing over the next two years, CEO Ben Minicucci said on Tuesday.

United Airlines on Tuesday asked Boeing to start building MAX 9 jets instead of MAX 10s while waiting for the MAX 10 to get certified, CEO Scott Kirby said at an investor conference.

United will opt back to the MAX 10 after the plane gets certified, although “it’s impossible to say” when a certification would be issued, Kirby said.  “Boeing’s deliveries are going to be way behind this year.”

UAL is considering replacing part of its order for 277 MAX 10s with A321s from Airbus, Kirby added.

Airbus, while not facing regulatory issues, is having trouble keeping up with a huge backlog of orders for its narrow body jets, and it faces labor strife.

--TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2023

3/14...103 percent of 2023 levels
3/13...105
3/12...108
3/11...107
3/10...107
3/9...103
3/8...106
3/7...106

--House Republican leaders moved this week to pass legislation that would force the Chinese owners of TikTok to sell the platform or face being barred in the United States, even after former President Trump came out on Monday in an interview on CNBC against targeting the popular social media app he once vowed to ban.

Both parties in this election year are eager to show they can be tough on China.  Majority Leader Steve Scalise said: “We must ensure the Chinese government cannot weaponize TikTok against American users and our government through data collection and propaganda.”

The 13-page bill is the product of the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, which has been an island of bipartisanship, chaired by Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher.  The House Energy and Commerce Committee voted unanimously last week to advance the legislation, which would remove TikTok from app stores in the U.S. by Sept. 30 unless its Beijing-based parent company ByteDance, sold its stake.

Trump as president issued an executive order that did exactly that, but now he has changed his mind.  He told CNBC Monday morning that he still considered TikTok a national security threat, but that banning it would make young people “go crazy.”  He added that any action harming the platform would benefit Facebook, which he called an “enemy of the people.”

“Frankly, there are a lot of people on TikTok that love it,” Trump said.  “There are a lot of young kids on TikTok who will go crazy without it.”

“There’s a lot of good and there’s a lot of bad with TikTok,” he added, “but the thing I don’t like is that without TikTok, you can make Facebook bigger, and I consider Facebook to be an enemy of the people, along with a lot of the media.”

So, will Trump’s reversal erode the bill’s broad base of support in the House?  Many members were irate last week when TikTok dispatched its users to flood congressional telephone lines with calls urging lawmakers not to shut down the platform.

Chairman Gallagher and his Democratic counterpart, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, have used similar language in describing the risks of TikTok.

“America’s foremost adversary has no business controlling a dominant media platform in the United States,” said Gallagher.  Krishnamoorthi said TikTok “poses critical threats to our national security” as long as it is owned by ByteDance.

Gallagher also expressed concern that TikTok has become the “primary news source for 17-year-olds.”  Oh brother.  Yup, they aren’t reading StocksandNews.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Banning TikTok should be a last resort, but ByteDance and Beijing have demonstrated that they can’t be trusted.  Reams of evidence show how the Chinese government can use the platform for cyber-espionage and political influence campaigns in the U.S.

“Numerous reports have found that posts about Uyghur forced labor in Xinjiang province, the Tiananmen Square massacre, Hong Kong protests, Tibet and other politically sensitive content in China are suppressed on TikTok.  A December study by the Network Contagion Research Institute found significant disparities between hashtags on Instagram and TikTok.  The site also appears to amplify content that sows discord and ignorance in America.  Pro-Hamas videos trend more than pro-Israel ones.  Videos promoting Osama bin Laden’s 2002 ‘letter to America’ went viral on TikTok last autumn.

“How has TikTok responded to allegations that its algorithms are controlled by the Chinese government?  In January it restricted researcher access to its hashtag data to make it harder to study.  ‘Some individuals and organizations have misused the Center’s search function to draw inaccurate conclusions, so we are changing some of the features to ensure it is used for its intended purpose,’ a TikTok spokesperson said.

“Yet TikTok can’t explain why posts that are divisive in America go viral, while those that are sensitive for the CCP get few views.  TikTok tried to ameliorate concerns about CCP wizards behind the screen with its Project Texas, which houses American user data on Oracle servers and gives the U.S. software company access to its algorithms.

“But TikTok’s algorithms are still controlled by ByteDance engineers in China.  The Journal reported in January that TikTok executives have said internally that they sometimes need to share protected U.S. data with ByteDance to train the algorithms and keep problematic content off the site.  Like protests for democracy in Hong Kong?

“TikTok’s other major security risk is cyber-espionage.  The app vacuums up sensitive American user information, including searches, browsing histories and locations. This data can and does flow back to China.  ‘Everything is seen in China,’ a TikTok official said in a leaked internal recording reported by Buzzfeed....

“(The) House bill doesn’t restrict First Amendment rights.  It regulates national security. It also has ample precedent since U.S. law restricts foreign ownership of broadcast stations.  The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States forced the Chinese owners of Grindr, the gay dating app, to give up control of the company.

“China has blocked U.S. social-media companies that don’t comply with its censorship regime, and the House bill would prevent Beijing from applying its political speech controls and surveillance in the U.S.  Despite America’s political divisions, this ought to be a shared goal.”

Wednesday, the legislation then passed in the House, 352 to 65, with 50 Democrats and 15 Republicans voting in opposition.

In a statement on the vote, TikTok said its attention would now shift to the Senate, where the fate of the bill is unclear.

“This process was secret and the bill was jammed through for one reason: it’s a ban,” a TikTok spokesperson said in a statement.  “We are hopeful that the Senate will consider the facts, listen to their constituents, and realize the impact on the economy, 7 million small businesses, and the 170 million Americans who use our service.”

Senate Majority Leader Schumer said, “The Senate will review the legislation when it comes over from the House.”

Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat, and the panel’s top Republican, Marco Rubio of Florida, urged support for the House bill, citing the strong showing in Wednesday’s vote.

“We are united in our concern about the national security threat posed by TikTok – a platform with enormous power to influence and divide Americans whose parent company ByteDance remains legally required to do the bidding of the Chinese Communist Party,” the pair said in their joint statement.

China then criticized America for “unjustly suppressing foreign companies,” while Shou Chew, TikTok’s boss, urged American users to “protect” their “constitutional rights.”

Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Thursday on CNBC that he’s building a team of investors to potentially buy TikTok.

Mnuchin downplayed concerns that the Chinese government would step in to block a sale – and asserted that the app would need to be “rebuilt in the U.S.” after an acquisition.

“I think the Chinese will be fine selling it so long as there’s not a technology transfer along the way.”

TikTok users, however, need not worry their app is about to be taken away anytime soon as not only does the Senate have to act, and it won’t do anything imminently, but then if the Senate passed the bill, TikTok has six months to find a buyer, and there will be court cases and you get the idea.

Meanwhile, shares in Meta Platforms fell 4% after Donald Trump’s comment describing Facebook as “an enemy of the people,” and that he didn’t want Facebook to get “bigger” if TikTok was banned.  Trump also told CNBC, “I think Facebook has been very bad for our country, especially when it comes to elections.”

--Oracle reported stronger-than-expected fiscal third-quarter earnings after the market close on Monday and the shares rose 11% Tuesday as cloud demand continued to grow.

Adjusted per-share earnings rose to $1.41 in the three months ended Feb. 29 from $1.22 a year earlier, beating expectations for $1.38.  Revenue advanced 7% from a year earlier to $13.28 billion, essentially in line with the Street.

Oracle’s total remaining performance obligations surged 29% to an all-time high of more than $80 billion, driven by “large new cloud infrastructure contracts,” CEO Safra Catz said in a statement.

“We expect to continue receiving large contracts reserving cloud infrastructure capacity because the demand for our Gen2 (artificial intelligence) infrastructure substantially exceeds supply – despite the fact we are opening new and expanding existing cloud datacenters very, very rapidly,” Catz said.

Cloud services and license support sales gained 12% to $9.96 billion, while the cloud and on-premise license segment fell 3% to $1.26 billion. Both hardware and services logged declines, according to Oracle.

Catz added that the company’s “Gen2 cloud infrastructure business will remain in a hyper-growth phase – up 53% in (the third quarter) – for the foreseeable future.”

--Apple supplier Foxconn said on Thursday it expects revenue to increase significantly in 2024 following a slow start to the year amid booming demand for AI servers, after it posted fourth-quarte profit that beat market estimates.

The outlook has turned rosier since Foxconn chairman Young Liu said in November the world’s largest contract electronics maker had “relatively conservative and neutral” expectations for 2024.

In the fourth quarter, consumer electronics including smartphones accounted for 58 percent of revenue while cloud and networking products, including servers, contributed 20 percent.

The company expects first quarter revenue to decline slightly from a year earlier, but it sees 2024 revenue increasing significantly year-on-year.

--Shares in U.S. Steel fell sharply after the Washington Post reported that “President Biden is preparing to issue a statement of veiled opposition to Nippon Steel’s proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel before Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida arrives in Washington for a planned state visit April 10, according to three people familiar with he matter.

“White House lawyers are drafting the expression of presidential concern even as the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) reviews the proposed takeover.

Donald Trump has previously said he would “block it instantaneously” if he returned to the White House.

It’s all about winning over the United Steelworkers union, which is also ill-advised in seeking to block the merger, a merger that will only help the company!  And the United States.  This topic really pisses me off.

Biden, in a statement, Thursday, said the United States needs to “maintain strong American steel companies powered by American steel workers.”

“U.S. Steel has been an iconic American steel company for more than a century, and it is vital for it to remain an American steel company that is domestically owned and operated,” the president added.

Nippon Steel has promised to honor all existing union contracts!  And to expand operations, in the United States...and Japan is our ally, Mr. President, and Donald Trump.

As I noted back on 12/30/23 in this space, quoting a Washington Post editorial:

“It is no longer 1943, when U.S. Steel’s employment peaked at 340,000, as it helped arm the Allies to defeat the Axis power, including Imperial Japan.  Now, the firm has fewer than 15,000 workers, and Japan is one of the United States’ best friends, whose companies already employ tens of thousands of U.S. workers at auto plants across the country – and should be welcome in steel, too.”

--The National Association of Realtors will drop the long-held policy on broker commissions that has been the target of several lawsuits, the Chicago-based association announced today.

It’s the end of a Chicago-born standard of real estate sales, where the agents for buyer and seller agree to split in half a commission of around 5% to 6%. Lawsuits seeking to kill the standard have argued the sharing rule amounts to collusion to jack up prices.

--Kohl’s topped quarterly estimates but the shares fell over 6%, after same-store sales declined more than expected.

For the fiscal fourth quarter ended Feb. 3, Kohl’s posted per-share earnings of $1.67, beating the Street’s estimate for $1.28.  Net sales of $5.7 billion missed consensus of $5.8bn, and same-store sales fell 4.3% vs. a year ago, wider than expected.

The company is expecting fiscal-year per-share EPS of $2.10 to $2.70, while analysts are at $2.62.  And, aside from expansion of its partnership with Sephora, Kohl’s said it will partner with Babies ‘R’ Us.

--Dollar Tree announced it will close nearly 1,000 stores as it swung to a surprise fourth quarter loss as the discount retailer took a related $1.07 billion goodwill impairment charge.  The shares fell 14% in response.

Dollar Tree plans to close about 600 Family Dollar stores in the first half of this year and 370 Family Dollar and 30 Dollar Tree stores over the next several years.

Dollar Tree acquired Family Dollar for more than $8 billion almost a decade ago after a bidding war with rival Dollar General, but it’s been a mess absorbing the chain.

Adjusted earnings were $2.55 per share, short of the Street’s estimate of $2.67, while revenue climbed to $8.64 billion from $7.72 billion, a bit below consensus of $8.67bn.

DLTR has been attracting consumers that have been stung by inflation as they seek to cut spending.  During the quarter, sales at Dollar Tree stores open at least a year climbed 6.3%, with traffic up 7.1%. 

The company expects first-quarter earnings of $1.33 to $1.48 per share on revenue in a range of $7.6 billion to $7.9 billion, with current consensus of $1.70 on revenue of $7.68 billion.  Another reason for the sharp fall in the share price.

--Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. on Thursday reported fiscal fourth-quarter profit of $296.4 million, with adjusted earnings of $3.85 per share, beating Wall Street expectations for $3.36 and the shares surged 14%.

The sporting goods retailer posted revenue of $3.88 billion in the period, also beating the Street, and compared with $3.60 billion a year earlier.  Analysts were at $3.79 billion.

For the year, the company reported a profit of $1.05 billion, or $12.18 per share, with revenue at $12.98 billion.

Dick’s expects full-year earnings to be $12.85 to $13.25 per share, with revenue in the range of $13 billion to $13.13 billion. Analysts are expecting EPS of $12.79 on revenue of $13.1 billion.

--Manhattan apartment rents rose in February as a strong economy and tough sales market translated into a busy month for leasing.

The median rent on new leases signed last month was $4,230, up 3.3% from a year earlier, according to appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate.  The record $4,400 was reached last summer.

--Bitcoin hit $72,881 on Monday, and then $73,400 Thursday, as a record $2.7 billion flowed into crypto assets last week, with the bulk of that going to Bitcoin.

At 4:00 p.m. ET the price was $68,600.

--Germans have been dealing with some serious travel issues this week, as train drivers from rail company Deutsche Bahn announced a sixth round of strikes Monday until Wednesday in a long-running pay dispute.

And Lufthansa’s cabin crew union called on its members to strike at Lufthansa and short-haul carrier CityLine on Tuesday and Wednesday across two of Germany’s busiest airports, Frankfurt and Munich, to press their demands for higher pay.

Some 560 Lufthansa and CityLine flights were canceled Tuesday and another 360 on Wednesday as a result of the job action.

[Unrelated, some 800+ flights were canceled at Denver’s International Airport as a result of Thursday’s huge snowstorm in the region, though the airport itself didn’t receive much white stuff.]

--The 96th Academy Awards ceremony Sunday was watched on ABC by an average audience of 19.5 million viewers, a 4% increase over 2023, according to Nielsen data, and the third consecutive year the Oscars has grown since hitting an all-time low of 10.5 million viewers in 2021 during the pandemic.

The Oscars telecast is typically the highest rated non-sports program of the year, but it used to score 30 million viewers or more.

Meanwhile, “Oppenheimer” won seven Oscars, including for best picture, and best director (Christopher Nolan), along with best actor (Cillian Murphy), and supporting actor (Robert Downey Jr.).

Universal Pictures was not only responsible for “Oppenheimer,” but also for “Kung Fu Panda 4,” which won the box office last weekend with a solid $58.3 million opening domestically.  The film added $22 million internationally.

“Dune: Part Two” raked in an additional $46 million in its second week, bringing its domestic cumulative total to $157 million.

Foreign Affairs, Part II

China: China criticized India for opening a tunnel near the countries’ shared border.  Last week Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the tunnel in a part of the northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh that is claimed by China. India said the tunnel would be used by its army.  But China said India “has no right” to build infrastructure in what it called the “southern region of Tibet.”

Meanwhile, the National People’s Congress wrapped up, with President Xi Jinping gaining even more control with the theme being a deeper focus on national security.

Nearly 3,000 delegates met over the past week in Beijing for the highly choreographed event, with delegates enacting bills to “modernize China’s system and capacity for national security,” while revising laws on national defense education and broadening state secrets laws to include work secrets in restricted sensitive information.

And as I noted last week, China also broke with 30 years of tradition by scrapping one of the most widely followed events on the policy calendar, the premier’s annual post-parliament news conference.

Thomas Kellogg, a professor of Asian law at Georgetown University, told Reuters the Communist Party under Xi “reverts in so many ways to a pre-1978 mode of governance.”

The NPC approved a revised State Council law that directs China’s version of the cabinet to follow Xi’s vision by 2,883 to eight, with nine abstentions.  Other measures passed by similarly wide margins.

In brief closing remarks, Zhao Leji, the legislature’s top official, urged the people to unite more closely under the Communist Party’s leadership “with comrade Xi Jinping at its core.”

Neil Thomas, a Chinese politics fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told the Associated Press that the party leaders who run the State Council used to have a much freer hand in setting economic policy.  But not today.

“Xi has been astonishingly successful in consolidating his personal hold over the party, which has allowed him to become the key decisionmaker in all policy domains,” he said.

North Korea: Seong-Hyon Lee is a senior fellow at the George H.W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations. The following excerpts are from an op-ed in Barron’s.

“Many in Washington now appear to have reached the conclusion that the recent war warnings from North Korea, amidst a series of missile tests, are merely routine and part of Pyongyang’s standard strategy.  However, it is time for a reassessment.

“Recent policy shifts and statements by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, coupled with the escalation of missile tests and threats by North Korea, signify a profound change in North Korea’s stance toward inter-Korean relations.  They render the security outlook of the Korean Peninsula uncertain.

“North Korea has officially forsaken its long-held policy of peaceful reunification with South Korea.  On Jan. 15, Kim Jong-un mandated a constitutional amendment that calls for the complete occupation, subjugation, and annexation of South Korea ‘in the event of war.’  At the same time, North Korea’s Supreme People’s Assembly, a parliament that unconditionally supports the decisions of the supreme leader, resolved to dismantle government agencies that foster inter-Korean exchanges and cooperation.  Kim declared, ‘The bitter history of inter-Korean relations has led us to the definitive conclusion that national restoration and reunification with South Korea are unattainable.’

“Some Western analysts erroneously believe that North Korea’s elimination of references to ‘peaceful reunification’ and the portrayal of inter-Korean relations as those between ‘two states’ resemble Kim’s approach to a ‘two-state’ solution in the Israeli-Palestinian context.  They incorrectly infer that this reflects Kim’s acknowledgement of his inability to enforce a unification agenda with the economically superior South, which boasts a nominal gross domestic product approximately 98% larger than that of North Korea, as per Statistics Korea, South Korea’s official statistics agency.

“Nonetheless, North Korea’s mid-January parliamentary decision also characterizes the state of inter-Korean relations as ‘at war.’...It is crucial to note that the parliament also formally identifies South Korea as ‘the state most hostile toward the DPRK.’ [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea]

“The portrayal of South Korea as the ‘most hostile state’ and the abolition of inter-Korean governmental bodies indicates a more rigid stance by North Korea.  The North Korean version of the ‘two-state solution’ does not imply the recognition of two separate sovereignties on the Korean Peninsula with each pursuing its own interests.  Instead, it officially labels South Korea as the North’s primary adversary.  The underlying question then becomes: How does one deal with an enemy? The objective becomes to undermine, sabotage, and ultimately, to annihilate.  This perspective is notably absent in some of the interpretations emanating from Washington....

“Based on North Korea’s history of provocations, its attacks often occur when the likelihood of such attacks is perceived to be low.  The Korean War commenced on a tranquil Sunday morning in June 1950, catching many off guard, with numerous South Korean soldiers away for the weekend.

“An in-depth analysis of Kim’s recent speeches and declarations, particularly his 20,000-word discourse at the 10th Session of the 14th Supreme People’s Assembly, offers invaluable insights into his mindset.  While the speech is laden with North Korea’s customary propaganda and arrogance, it also conveys considerable anger, hostility, and strategic ambiguity, yet with nuances.  Significantly, it vividly reflects Kim’s frustration and his sense of being encircled....

“Cornering a desperate adversary may inadvertently heighten the aggression of that nation.  History has shown that the greatest military strategists have consistently employed a combination of coercion and inducement.’

Iran: U.S., French and British forces downed dozens of drones in the Red Sea over the weekend after Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis targeted bulk carrier Propel Fortune and U.S. destroyers in the region, the U.S. military said in a statement.

A Houthi spokesman in a speech Saturday said they targeted the cargo vessel and “a umber of U.S. war destroyers at the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden with 37 drones.”

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said the U.S. military and coalition forces had downed at least 28 uncrewed aerial vehicles over the Red Sea.

Haiti: Prime Minister Ariel Henry said he will resign once a transitional presidential council is created, capitulating to international pressure that seeks to save the country overwhelmed by violent gangs.

But the gangs just intensified their efforts to take over the country, while there is a true humanitarian crisis, with millions in desperate need of food and water.  Stands and stores that used to sell to impoverished Haitians have run out of goods, the airport closed, the main port in Port-au-Prince closed, stranding tons of containers with critical supplies.

The U.S. military on Sunday carried out an operation to airlift non-essential embassy personnel from the country and added ‘anti-terrorism’ forces to bolster embassy security.

Needless to say, there are risks of another mass migration of Haitians to the United States and the region as nearby countries bolster their border security and withdraw staff from embassies, while plans to send a long-awaited international security force remain uncertain.

Random Musing

--Presidential approval ratings....

Gallup: 38% approve of President Biden’s job performance, 59% disapprove; 32% of independents approve (Feb. 1-20).

Rasmussen: 45% approve, 54% disapprove (March 15).

--President Biden and Donald Trump formally wrapped up their party nominations on Tuesday in primaries held in the likes of Georgia, Mississippi and Washington State, and so we’re off and running, though the two got a start last weekend after Super Tuesday’s results.

Biden issued a statement Tuesday night declaring himself “honored” to have earned the nomination and noting that the country was making progress, but also warning:

“Amid this progress we face a sobering reality. Freedom and democracy are at risk here in a way they have not been since the civil war.  Donald Trump is running a campaign of resentment, revenge and retribution that threaten the very idea of America.  Voters have a choice to make about the very future of this country. Are we going to stand up and defend our democracy or let others tear it down?”

Monday night, Trump announced on Truth Social his first steps if he returns to the Oval Office.

“My first acts as your next President will be to Close the Border, DRILL, BABY, DRILL, and Free the January 6 hostages being wrongfully imprisoned!”

Just a reminder...the U.S. is producing oil at all-time high today!  But President Biden is loath to talk about it for fear of offending his far-left base.

Trump, in a video Tuesday night, called it a “really great day of victory.”

Looking forward to November, he said, “We now have to go on to victory because our country’s in serious trouble,” complaining about the border and the economy and claiming the U.S. has “no respect on the world stage.”

Last Saturday, the two candidates had dueling rallies in Georgia.  Biden, addressing supporters in Atlanta, said:

“Donald Trump has a different constituency.  Here’s a guy who’s kicking off his general election campaign on the road up with Marjorie Taylore Greene.  It can tell you a lot about a person who he keeps company with.”  Biden also noted that Trump hosted Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on Friday night in Mar-a-Lago, a man who Biden says “doesn’t think democracy works.”

Trump, with Greene in Rome, made the border crisis a central focus of his speech, ratcheting up his anti-immigrant rhetoric as he spoke about the murder of Laken Riley, the Georgia nursing student who was killed while jogging.

“I will stop the killing. I will stop the bloodshed. I will end the agony of our people, the plunder of our cities, the sacking of our towns, the violation of our citizens and the conquest of our country. These people are conquering our country.”

Trump also continued to falsely claim that the 2020 election was “rigged” and reiterated his suggestion that his domestic opponents posed a bigger threat than the foreign countries.

“The biggest threat we have, it’s the threat from within,” he said.  “It’s the radical left lunatics that we have in this country. That’s a much bigger threat than outside threats.”

A Fox News poll conducted in January found that in a matchup between Biden and Trump, 51% of registered voters in Georgia said they would vote for Trump, while 43% said they would vote for Biden.

--The Republican senator who gave the party’s response to President Biden’s State of the Union address, Katie Britt of Alabama, used a harrowing account of a young woman’s sexual abuse to attack his border policies, but the rapes did not happen in the U.S. or during the Biden administration, as was the clear insinuation.

Britt described how she had met a woman at the U.S.-Mexico border who told of being raped thousands of times in a sex trafficking operation run by cartels, starting at age 12.

The victim has previously spoken publicly about the abuse happening in her home country of Mexico from 2004 to 2008 – not in the United States during the Biden administration.  Yet Britt said:

“We wouldn’t be OK with this happening in a third-world country.  This is the United States of America, and its past time we start acting like it,” Britt said in the speech from her kitchen at home in Alabama.  “President Biden’s border crisis is a disgrace.”

She was appropriately then skewered on “Saturday Night Live.”

--Back to Hungary’s Viktor Orban, after meeting with Trump, he posted on X: “We need leaders in the world who are respected and can bring peace. He is one of them!  Come back and bring us peace, Mr. President!”  Trump, in a room full of attendees honoring Orban, called the prime minister a “fantastic leader.”

--The New York Times reported that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. recently approached NFL star Aaron Rodgers and former Minnesota governor and professional wrestler Jesse Ventura about serving as his running mate on an independent presidential ticket, and that both had welcomed the overtures.

Just how Aaron Rodgers would balance playing for the Jets, training camp and all, with  campaigning isn’t exactly clear.  Yes, it is totally laughable.  Ventura, on the other hand, is realistic, at least as these things go.

CNN’s Jake Tapper then reported Wednesday that CNN correspondent Pamela Brown met Rodgers at the Kentucky Derby in 2013 and when he learned she was with CNN, he began spouting the Sandy Hook conspiracy theories.  Rodgers claimed it was a government inside job designed to help pass gun-control laws and that there were no victims.  [Twenty children and six adults were gunned down.]

Reminder: Alex Jones was sued by victims’ families for promoting these falsehoods and was hit with a $1.5 billion judgment in civil court.

Rodgers then posted on social media, in part: “As I’m on the record saying in the past, what happened in Sandy Hook was an absolute tragedy.  I am not and have never been of the opinion that the events did not take place.”

But he didn’t refute the CNN piece.

RFK needs to select a running mate ahead of deadlines in states that stipulate the requirement of a vice-presidential candidate in order to petition for ballot access.  He said he’s announcing his pick March 26.

--House lawmakers grilled former special counsel Robert Hur for hours about his decision not to seek charges against President Biden for mishandling classified materials.  Democrats focused on Hur’s decision to include disparaging details about Biden’s memory.  “You made a choice. It was a political choice. It was the wrong choice,” said Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) who is running for the Senate.  Republicans used their five minutes to question why Hur opted not to recommend charges after finding evidence that Biden willfully retained government materials after his vice presidency.

Hur managed to tick off both sides, which means he did his job well.  In defending his report, he argued that the details about memory were necessary to explain his decision.  He also said his conclusions do not exonerate Biden, hard as Democrats tried to do just that, but rather determine there was not enough proof to meet federal prosecution thresholds.

“I did not exonerate him; that word does not appear in my report,” Hur told Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) as she read sections of the report that the congresswoman repeatedly said showed Biden was exonerated.

--The judge overseeing the Geogia election interference case on Wednesday dismissed some of the charges against former President Trump, but many other counts in the indictment remain and Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee wrote that prosecutors could seek a new indictment on the charges he dismissed.

The ruling came as McAfee was also considering a bid by defendants to have Fulton County DA Fani Willis removed from the case.

And today, Friday, McAfee said Willis can remain on the case, so long as she removes her deputy, Nathan Wade, with whom Willis had a romantic relationship.

In a devastating statement as part of his ruling, McAfee said “the established record now highlights a significant appearance of impropriety that infects the current structure of the prosecution team.”

Wade then resigned.

It seems highly unlikely that this case will go to trial before the election.

--And in a shocking development in the Stormy Daniels hush-money case that was due to go to trial March 25, the Manhattan district attorney’s office, which is accusing Donald Trump of covering up a sex scandal during and after the 2016 presidential campaign, asked for a delay of 30 days to give Trump’s lawyers time to review a new batch of records that were only recently received from federal prosecutors, who years ago investigated the hush-money payments at the center of the case.

--The Princess of Wales apologized Monday for releasing a doctored family photo of her and her children, blaming it on amateur editing fails.

Kate Middletown tweeted her apologies after leading photo agencies – including Reuters, the Associated Press, Getty and AFP – all yanked the photo over numerous signs it had been altered.

“Like many amateur photographers, I do occasionally experiment with editing,” the princess wrote.  “I wanted to express my apologies for any confusion the family photograph we shared yesterday caused.”

She ended by saying that “I hope everyone celebrating had a very happy Mother’s Day” – which was Sunday in the UK – and ending casually with “C,” for her first name, Catherine.

The palace said the photo was taken by Prince William. Issued by Kensington Palace on Sunday, it was the first official photo of Kate since her abdominal surgery nearly two months ago.

The photo shows an inconsistency in the alignment of Princess Charlotte’s left hand and that some of Charlotte’s arm appears to be missing, which would really be a story, and that Kate’s arms appear to be extra long to be able to wrap around Charlotte and Louis.

This story is indeed a big deal in the UK, and rightfully so.  Princess Anne is the only Royal left with any credibility.  She should stage a coup.  ‘You guys all suck, I’m taking over.”

--SpaceX’s Starship rocket, designed to eventually send astronauts to the moon and beyond, completed nearly an entire test flight to space on its third try on Thursday but was destroyed during its return to Earth after making it farther than ever before.

During a live webcast of the flight, SpaceX commentators said mission control lost communications with the spacecraft during its atmospheric re-entry at hypersonic speed.  The vehicle was nearing a planned splashdown in the Indian Ocean about an hour after launch from south Texas.  SpaceX then confirmed that the spacecraft had been “lost,” presumably either burning up or coming apart during re-entry or crashing into the sea.

In all, though, a highly successful test, far surpassing its first two performances, both of which were cut short by explosions minutes after launch, but, it wasn’t known why one of the key objectives, an attempt to re-ignite one of Starship’s Raptor engines while it coasted in a shallow orbit, was skipped.

SpaceX plans to conduct at least six more test flights of Starship this year, subject to regulatory approval.

--While California doesn’t have to worry about going back into drought until 2025 at the earliest, the giant reservoirs of the Colorado River Basin, Lakes Mead and Powell, which provide water to 40 million Americans, are still only about one-third full, despite the back-to-back wet winters.  Historically, they were normally at about 95% prior to decades of megadrought, according to Jay Famiglietti, a hydrologist at Arizona State University, in an interview with USA TODAY.

--Parts of Kansas and Missouri were hit by “gorilla hail” on Wednesday, a term coined by Reed Timmer, a storm chaser.  Some of the reported hail was as big as a baseball.

“When you get up to tennis ball, baseball-sized or God forbid softball-sized, that can do a tremendous amount of damage, and if you get hit in the head, that could be fatal,” said Alex Sosnowski, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather.

The National Weather Service reported one storm Wednesday indeed produced “softball-sized hail,” or 3.5-inch chunks.

Sadly, parts of Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky were then hit by fatal tornadoes Thursday night, killing at least three in Ohio at last report.

--Finally, as a proud Wake Forest alum, I note the passing, Wednesday, of “Mr. Wake Forest,” Ed Wilson, 101.

After graduating from Wake Forest in 1943, he joined the Navy, where he served on a destroyer escort in the Pacific theatre, seeing action in the battles of Iwo Jima and Okinawa and in the Philippines.

After then receiving his master’s and doctorate degrees at Harvard, Wilson returned to Wake Forest to teach “Poets of the English Romantic Period.”  Wake was in the process of moving to a new campus in Winston-Salem, and in a time of great change in the South, Wilson chaired the faculty committee that voted to end racial segregation at the University, Wake’s first black student enrolling in 1962.

In 1967, President James Ralph Scales named Wilson the University’s first provost, a roll he maintained for 16 years during Scales’ presidency and for the first part of the tenure of his successor, and he was provost, and Scales president, when I was at Wake in the late 1970s.

There is a ton of stuff I wish I would have done differently during my college years, like I wish I had taken Wilson’s class, but I loved the school, and Wilson was a constant presence on campus, always with a smile.

This was a great, beloved figure. Ed Wilson once said this of the school:

“Treasure this moment, treasure Wake Forest.  To me, one of the happy facts about Wake Forest is that on that day, way back when I heard about the new school for the first time (in 1939), the two words that leaped out were ‘Wake’ and ‘Forest.’  There is something wonderful about that name, Wake Forest. It suggests waking up to life itself at its best and suggests something green and verdant that lasts as far as the years to come.”

Ed Wilson handed me my diploma and he has a warm smile in the photo from that day as well, as do I.  RIP, Professor.

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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces...and all the fallen.

Pray for Ukraine and the innocent in Gaza.

God bless America.

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Gold $2161
Oil $81.01

Bitcoin: $68,600 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]

Regular Gas: $3.43; Diesel: $4.03 [$3.46 / $4.33 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 3/11-3/15

Dow Jones  -0.02%  [38714]
S&P 500  -0.1%  [5117]
S&P MidCap  -1.0%
Russell 2000  -2.1%
Nasdaq  -0.7%  [15973]

Returns for the period 1/1/24-3/15/24

Dow Jones  +2.7%
S&P 500  +7.3%
S&P MidCap  +5.1%
Russell 2000  +0.6%
Nasdaq  +6.4%

Bulls 60.9
Bear 14.5 [Investors Intelligence...reminder, and for new readers, this is a contrarian indicator and such a wide spread, and with a bull reading of 60, sometimes spells danger.  [Granted, this indicator worked better in the old days than it does today.]

Hang in there.

Happy St. Patrick’s Day! Slainte....

Brian Trumbore