Week in Review

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Week in Review

03/22/2025

For the week 3/17-3/21

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,352

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump held their big phone call on Tuesday, and the Kremlin is still celebrating.  They gave Trump a concession that he could claim victory on, Putin’s pledge to halt attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for 30 days (though the promise lasted mere hours), and the Russian leader, a man indicted as a suspected war criminal, has been given a leg-up back to the top tier of global politics.

After three years as a pariah in the Western world, and hardly good relations long before that, Russia is back dealing directly with a U.S. administration that wants to engage.  Trump and Putin even discussed Middle East policy and “global security,” though on both, Russia has done nothing but try to disrupt any peace process in the Middle East, ditto the latter.

Putin is even piling on more conditions aimed at crippling Kyiv’s ability to resist, with zero real blowback from Trump, including one demand that the flow of both weapons and intelligence to Ukraine from its allies has to cease.

We don’t know, yet, whether the U.S. has stopped sending arms to Ukraine and sharing intelligence, after agreeing to restart both prior to the call following a pause by the United States.

We really don’t know anything, except that Russia’s readout of the call, covered below, certainly couldn’t have been well-received in Kyiv.  Further talks on the technical aspects of any potential ceasefire are to held in Saudi Arabia between the parties next week.

Bottom line, Ukraine can take no comfort from the week’s developments, and the end result of the call between Trump and Putin is that it presented further proof that Russia has no interest in ending its invasion.

So much for the idea of being able to settle the conflict in 24 hours.

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Trump, Elon, cont’d....

--Elon Musk was to receive a briefing Friday on the U.S. military’s top-secret war plans for China, according to multiple media reports (the New York Times, Washington Post, and Wall Street Journal), all citing their own sources and ‘U.S. officials,’ giving the businessman and presidential adviser extraordinary insight into one of the Pentagon’s most closely guarded operational blueprints.

Musk was apparently going to be briefed on how U.S. forces would fight in a potential war with China, including maritime tactics and targeting plans, the officials said.  Other topics would be addressed at the Defense Department.

But after the reporting, it appears this part of any meeting at the Pentagon was squelched, because Musk was only there for an hour.

Musk asked for the briefing, according to one report.  Another report said Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth invited Musk for a briefing.  Elon has a security clearance but isn’t in the military chain of command.  He obviously has some major conflicts of interest in his business dealings both with China and the Defense Department.

Hegseth said late Thursday that Musk would visit the Pentagon on Friday, but disputed that Musk would receive a sensitive China briefing, writing on X, “It’s an informal meeting about innovation, efficiencies & smarter production.”

In a post on Truth Social Thursday evening, President Trump said that “China will not even be mentioned or discussed” at the meeting. 

The New York Times had reported the briefing would include 20 to 30 slides that lay out how the United States would fight in a conflict with China, citing two officials it did not identify.

Obviously, if an enemy knew our war plans, it would reinforce its defenses and address its weaknesses, making the plans far less likely to succeed.

Michael Sobolik, a senior fellow for U.S.-China competition at the Hudson Institute in Washington, told the Wall Street Journal that “Pentagon leadership might be trying to protect themselves against Musk cutting sensitive military programs.  ‘But they don’t need to give Musk the full briefing to avoid that outcome,’ Sobolik said.”

On the other hand, if Musk and his DOGE team want to trim the Pentagon budget in a responsible way, they may need to know what weapons systems the Pentagon plans to use in a fight with China, as the Times observed.

--Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Americans won’t miss the Venezuelan and MS-13 gang members dispatched by the Trump Administration to El Salvador on the weekend.  Most of them are criminals who were in the U.S. illegally.  But it’s still troubling to see U.S. officials appear to disdain the law in the name of upholding it.

“President Trump ordered the deportation of nearly 300 alleged members of Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua gang, as well as several from MS-13, the ruthless Salvadoran gang.  They were apparently deported without a hearing in an immigration court, much less a criminal conviction.

“The Administration didn’t release their names or their offenses. They were flown to El Salvador, where strongman Nayib Bukele had them sent immediately to his notorious gang prison.  News reports say they have no access to phones or the ability to contact families.

“The Administration invoked the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to justify the deportations without need for due process.  That law has rarely been used in U.S. history and not since World War II.  Mr. Trump says we’re at war with the gangs so the law is appropriate, but there has been no declaration of war or resolution from Congress to that effect.

“Mr. Trump may be right about the law, but he didn’t wait to find out.  He reportedly invoked the law Friday and the flights to Salvador took off Saturday.  Federal Judge James Boasberg issued an order temporarily blocking the deportations to consider their legality under the Alien Enemies Act, but the Administration said the aircraft were already in the air.

“The judge then verbally ordered that the planes be turned around, and the chronology of who wrote or knew what and when isn’t clear. But White House press secretary Karolin Leavitt insisted on Sunday in a statement to Fox News that the Administration ‘did not ‘refuse to comply’ with a court order.’

“To hear others in the Administration talk, however, such a refusal may be coming.  ‘They’re not gonna stop us,’ Tom Homan, Mr. Trump’s immigration czar, told Fox News on Monday.  ‘We’re not stopping.  I don’t care what the judges think, I don’t care what the left thinks, we’re coming.’

“Elon Musk threatened Judge Boasberg with impeachment, and the MAGA-sphere chanted that Mr. Trump should ignore the courts.  Are we already arriving at a constitutional impasse when the Administration thinks it can ignore court orders? ....

“In any event, the Administration can appeal whatever ruling Judge Boasberg hands down, and the case will go up the appellate chain, perhaps as far as the Supreme Court. What the Administration can’t do is defy a court order without being lawless itself.

“Also troubling is the U.S. reliance on Mr. Bukele, the Salvadoran president who has trampled due process in his war against crime. Gang violence is down and he’s popular, but his methods border on the barbaric....

“It isn’t clear why Mr. Trump had to get in a prison bed with Mr. Bukele when he could have sent the gang members to Guantanamo for immigration hearings and American due process.

“Mr. Trump won the election on a promise to deport illegal migrants, especially criminals and Tren de Aragua.  His voters will be happy he is fulfilling that promise. But he has to do it within the bounds of American law, or he will take the country down a dangerous road that echoes the way the Biden Administration abused the justice system.  Mr. Trump was elected to stop that, not imitate it.”

Trump posted on Truth Social: “I’m just doing what the VOTERS wanted me to do.  This judge, like many of the Crooked Judges’ I am forced to appear before, should be IMPEACHED!!!”

Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts Jr. then issued a rare public statement, without naming the president.

“For more than two centuries,” the chief justice said, “it has been established that impeachment is not an appropriate response to disagreement concerning a judicial decision. The normal appellate review process exists for that purpose.”

Back in 2018, after Trump called a judge who had ruled against his administration’s asylum policy “an Obama judge,” Roberts weighed in, saying it was a profound misunderstanding of the judicial role.

“We do not have Obama judges or Trump judges, Bush judges or Clinton judges. What we have is an extraordinary group of dedicated judges doing their level best to do equal right to those appearing before them.  That independent judiciary is something we should all be thankful for.”

Judge Boasberg then edged closer on Thursday to holding the Trump administration in contempt for possibly having violated the order he issued last weekend pausing the deportations.

Boasberg told the administration to explain to hm by Tuesday why officials had not violated his instructions, he then extended the deadline to Wednesday...and then Thursday, and he called out the Justice Department for repeatedly stonewalling his attempts to get information about the timing of the flights, calling their most recent filing “woefully insufficient.”

--Thursday, President Trump signed a long-anticipated executive order that aims to shut down the Department of Education, acting on a key campaign pledge.

Even before it was signed, the order was being challenged by a group of Democratic state attorneys general, who filed a lawsuit seeking to block Trump from dismantling the department and halt the layoffs of nearly half of its staff announced last week.

Trump cannot shutter the agency without congressional legislation, and such a bill would need 60 votes in the Senate and thus the support of seven Democrats to pass.  Highly unlikely.

--Elon Musk’s DOGE cuts at the top-secret National Nuclear Security Administration could not have come at a worse time, costing the agency scientists, engineers, safety experts, project officers, accountants and lawyers, as the New York Times put it, “in the midst of its most ambitious endeavors in a generation.”

The agency and its workers “not only manage the nation’s 3,748 nuclear bombs and warheads, it is modernizing that arsenal – a $20-billion-a-year effort that will arm a new fleet of nuclear submarines, bomber jets and land-based missiles,” the Times reports.

Why it matters: “Since the last year of the first Trump administration, the agency has been desperately trying to build up its staff to handle the added workload.  Though it was still hundreds of employees short of what it had said it needed, it had edged up to about 2,000 workers by January.  Now, with the Trump administration’s buyouts and firings, the agency’s trajectory has gone from one of painstaking growth to retraction.” [Defense One]

--From the Washington Post: “The Trump administration has moved to reinstate at least 24,000 federal probationary employees fired in the president’s push to shrink the government, according to filings in one of two cases in which a federal judge ruled the terminations illegal.

“The records filed in federal court in Maryland late Monday span 18 agencies and mark the most comprehensive accounting to date of sweeping firings in recent months, which the administration has repeatedly declined to detail....

“The officials asserted that offering all of the employees their jobs back would sow chaos, particularly when an appeals court might later allow the terminations to move forward. But they indicated they were nonetheless trying to comply with judicial orders.”

A lawsuit brought by 20 Democratic attorneys general in early March alleged the administration had illegally terminated tens of thousands of probationary workers across the 18 agencies; the states arguing the firings were conducted in such a way that it overwhelmed state government support systems for unemployed workers and caused economic harm.

But the harm would have been mitigated, the states argue, if the administration had given them a 60-day notice – a warning they said in court papers is required of the federal government during mass layoffs.

--Judge Theodore D. Chuang of U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland ruled that Elon Musk and his team likely violated the Constitution “in multiple ways” and robbed Congress of its authority to oversee the dissolution of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), an agency it created.  Judge Chuang’s ruling was based on the finding that Musk had acted as an officer of the United States without being properly appointed to that role by President Trump.

Judge Chuang wrote that a group of unnamed aid workers who had sued to stop the demolition of USAID and its programs were likely to succeed in the lawsuit. He agreed with their contention that Musk’s rapid assertion of power over executive agencies was likely in violation of the Constitution’s appointments clause.

The judge also ordered that agency operations be partially restored – though that reprieve is likely temporary.  He ordered Musk’s team to reinstate email access to all current USAID employees, including those on paid leave.  He also ordered them to submit a plan for employees to reoccupy a federal office from which they were evicted last month, and he barred Musk’s team from engaging in any further work “related to the shutdown of USAID.”

But given that much of the agency’s work force and contracts have already been terminated, it was not immediately clear what effect the judge’s ruling would have.

--President Trump fired the Federal Trade Commission’s two Democratic commissioners on Tuesday, the latest move in his campaign to exert more control over independent government agencies.  The two were informed of their dismissals on Tuesday.

The move runs counter to current Supreme Court precedent that says the FTC commissioners can only be removed for cause. The administration has been clear that it is eager to see that precedent revisited.

--In an effort to limit fraudulent claims, the Social Security Administration will impose tighter identity-proofing measures.  Millions of recipients and applicants will be required to visit agency field offices rather than interact with the agency over the phone.

Beginning March 31st, people will no longer be able to verify their identity to the SSA over the phone. Those who cannot properly verify their identity over the agency’s “my Social Security” online service will be required to visit an agency field office in person to complete the verification process, agency leadership told reporters Tuesday.

Retiree advocates warn that the change will negatively impact older Americans in rural areas, including those with disabilities, mobility limitations, those who live far from SSA offices and have limited internet access.

The plan also comes as the agency plans to shutter dozens of Social Security offices throughout the country and has already set out plans to lay off thousands of workers.

Meanwhile, The Hill reports that Senate Republicans want Elon Musk to stop talking about the SSA.  GOP lawmakers warn that it’s known as the “third rail” of politics for a reason and that it’s too easy for Democrats to use it as political ammunition.  They are worried about longer wait times for their constituents who have problems with benefits, and they say that talk about Social Security as a “Ponzi scheme” makes their voters nervous, even hard-core Trump supporters.

One Republican senator warned that “when you start making it sound like you’re questioning the foundation of the Social Security system, that’s not helpful.”

One Republican congressman unafraid to speak out was Rep. Mike Lawler (NY).

“The decision to close the only Social Security hearing office in the Hudson Valley is a slap in the face to thousands of my constituents who rely on these services,” he posted on social media.  “Telling my constituents that they now have to travel to Lower Manhattan, New Haven, the Bronx or Goshen is completely unacceptable.”

--The Pentagon has deployed a Navy destroyer on an unusual mission to bolster security at the southern U.S. border, defense officials said, dispatching a warship in waters typically covered by the Coast Guard.

The USS Gravely, a guided-missile destroyer, is the administration’s latest effort to fend off what the president has claimed is an “invasion” at the border.

Gen. Gregory Guillot, who oversees U.S. Northern Command, said in a statement the Gravely will improve abilities “to protect the United States’ territorial integrity, sovereignty and security.”  Defense officials added in the same statement that the deployment will contribute to “a coordinated and robust response to combating maritime related terrorism, weapons proliferation, transnational crime, piracy, environmental destruction, and illegal seaborne immigration.”

The Pentagon did not signal if the presence of the destroyer is intended to send a signal to drug cartels in the region, President Trump having voiced a desire to launch military strikes against them.

Trump has also repeatedly said in recent weeks that he wants to “take back” the Panama Canal.  Pentagon spokesman John Ullyot said the Defense Department is “fully prepared to support the President’s national security priorities including those surrounding the Panama Canal.”

--President Trump signed an executive order seeking to eliminate several additional federal agencies, including one that oversees the federally funded media outlet Voice of America (VOA), testing the limits of his authoritative power as he seeks to shrink the size of the federal bureaucracy.

The U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM) – the parent of VOA, Office of Cuba Broadcasting, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and Radio Free Asia – is an independent agency established by Congress.  In 2020, Congress passed a law intended to limit the power of the agency’s presidentially appointed chief executive.  More than 1,300 journalists, producers and staff at VOA received an email saying they were placed on administrative leave Saturday.

The targeting of the agency, USAGM, is not new, but concerns grew after Trump appointed Kari Lake, a loyalist and crackpot, to serve as a special adviser to the agency.

Trump and other Republicans have long criticized VOA, whose mission is to counter authoritarian propaganda for foreign audiences with independent news.  During his first administration, Trump chastised VOA’s coverage of the coronavirus pandemic, derisively called the outlet the “voice of the Soviet Union” and accused the independent news service of promoting Chinese government propaganda in its reporting about the outbreak.

In early February, Elon Musk called for the closure of VOA and other outlets at USAGM.

The Agency of Global Media provides news in 64 languages to more than 427 million people, according to its website.

Dana Milbank / Washington Post

“Voice of America went on the air eight weeks after Pearl Harbor.  ‘We bring you voices from America,’ journalist William Harlan Hale said in German on Feb. 1, 1942, in VOA’s first broadcast.  ‘Today, and daily from now on, we shall speak to you about America and the war. The news may be good for us. The news may be bad. But we shall tell you the truth.’

“In the 83 years since then, VOA has been the voice of freedom across the globe, a constant force countering totalitarianism during World War II, the Cold War and the decades since.

“Adolf Hitler couldn’t silence it.  Joseph Stalin and his successors, right up through Vladimir Putin, couldn’t silence it.  Mao Zedong and his successors, through Xi Jinping, couldn’t silence it.  Ruhollah Khomeini and the ayatollahs couldn’t silence it.

“But Donald Trump has just silenced the voice of freedom....

“The world’s autocrats are doing somersaults.

“ ‘The so-called beacon of freedom, VIA, has now been discarded by its own government like a dirty rag,’ the Chinese Communist Party’s international media outlet, Global Times, wrote on Monday about the demise of what it calls a ‘lie factory.’  It celebrated the silencing of this lone voice of truth in China: ‘From smearing human rights in China’s Xinjiang to hyping up disputes in the South China Sea, from supporting ‘Taiwan independence’ forces to backing Hong Kong rioters, from fabricating the so-called China virus narrative to promoting the claim of China’s ‘overcapacity,’ almost every malicious falsehood about China has VOA’s fingerprints all over it.’ And it concurred with Elon Musk’s view that VOA is ‘just radical left crazy people talking to themselves.’”

Reaction in Iran and Russia was the same.

Younger folk just have no idea how important VOA / Radio Free Europe was in the days of the Cold War.  I know how...my relatives behind the Iron Curtain listened to it.  Unless you are of a certain age, you’ll find it hard to believe but often on the nightly news in the 1960s and early 70s, Walter Cronkite or the other anchors of the day would have a clip from East Berlin, and another attempt by a courageous individual to scale the Wall and get to freedom on the other side, only to be shot in the back.  It was stark...they were very dark times.

Radio Free Europe/Radio Free Asia were voices of inspiration and hope.

Sally Jenkins of the Washington Post had an interview with tennis great Martina Navratilova after the VOA decision.  Navratilova used to listen to Radio Free Europe on a red plastic radio in her small Czech country village.  “It was our lifeline,” she said.

State radio was a buzzing wall of bland polkas and waltzes punctuated by the drone of the regime, “Long live our working class and its fighting vanguard, the Communist Party!”

It was “all propaganda, a total joke,” Navratilova recalls, but it was nonetheless deadening because it relentlessly drummed into listeners that there could be no individual aspiration, only work for the state machine.

Voice of America broke through the wall.  “It couldn’t be censored or blocked, though they tried,” Navratilova remembers.

Every evening at 5:30, her parents turned on the red plastic radio and found the Voice of America signal.

Navratilova heard the moon landing on Voice of America, and she heard the names of beautiful-sounding places that might as well have been the moon: “Philadelphia,” “California,” “Florida.”

“It was what we listened to, to find out what was really going on around the world,” she recalls.

--Going back to last Friday’s grievance-laden campaign speech delivered inside the U.S. Department of Justice, it was remarkable how Donald Trump seeks personal control over the country’s federal law enforcement apparatus, which is normally run by appointees who seek to keep at least an arm’s length from the president to avoid the appearance of political pressure on prosecutorial decisions.  Instead, Trump embraced the notion of the agency as his own personal tool of vengeance.

“As the chief law enforcement officer in our country, I will insist upon and demand full and complete accountability for the wrongs and abuses that have occurred,” Trump told the audience, that included Attorney General Pam Bondi and FBI Director Kash Patel.

Among Trump’s other statements: “I believe that CNN and MSDNC, who literally write 97.6% bad about me, are political arms of the Democrat Party. And in my opinion, they are really corrupt and they are illegal.  What they do is illegal.”

Yes, the president of the United States is telling the Justice Department that he believes the media are illegal because they write bad things about him. 

“What a difference a rigged and crooked election had on our country, when you think about it. And the people who did this to us should go to jail.  They should go to jail.”

[The president, in one of his pressers from the Oval Office today, called the New York Times “the enemy of the people.”  I guess I am too, by his way of thinking.]

--David Brooks / New York Times...on how in less than two months, America’s reputation is shot.

“President Trump does not seem to notice or care that if you betray people, or jerk them around, they will revile you.  Over the last few weeks, the Europeans have gone from shock to bewilderment to revulsion. This period was for them what 9/11 was for us – the stripping away of illusions, the exposure of an existential threat.  The Europeans have realized that America, the nation they thought was their friend, is actually a rogue superpower.

“In Canada and Mexico you win popularity by treating America as your foe.  Over the next few years, I predict, Trump will cut a deal with China, doing to Taiwan some version of what he has already done to Ukraine – betray the little guy to suck up to the big guy.  Nations across Asia will come to the same conclusion the Europeans have already reached: America is a Judas.

“This is not just a Trump problem; America’s whole reputation is shot.  I don’t care if Abraham Lincoln himself walked into the White House in 2029, no foreign leader can responsibly trust a nation that is perpetually four years away from electing another authoritarian nihilist....

“The West is (temporarily) over.  What we call ‘the West’ is a centuries-long conversation – Socrates searching for truth, Rembrandt embodying compassion, Locke developing enlightenment liberalism, Francis Bacon pioneering the scientific method.  This is our heritage. For all of our history America understood itself as the culmination of the great Western project.  The idea of the West was reified in all the alliances and exchanges between Europe and North America.

“But the category ‘the West’ does not seem to be in Donald Trump’s head. Trump is cutting America off from its spiritual and intellectual roots.  He has completed the project that Jesse Jackson started in 1987 when he and a bunch of progressive activists at Stanford chanted, ‘Hey, hey, ho, ho, Western Civ has got to go.’

“The new civilizational struggle is between hard and soft. Don’t overthink this. Trump is not playing four-dimensional chess and trying to pry Russia from its alliance with China. American foreign policy is now oriented to whatever gets Trump’s hormones surging.  He has a lifelong thing for manly virility.  In the MAGA mind, Vladimir Putin codes as hard; Western Europe codes as soft.  Elon Musk codes as hard; USAID codes as soft.  WWE is hard; universities are soft.  Struggles for dominance are hard; alliances are soft.

“Europe will either revive or become a museum. It’s possible Europe will become a low-fertility, low-innovation, slow-growth vacation destination for the world. But Europeans know that this is their moment to cut the security cord with America and revive their own might. Germany is increasing its borrowing capacity so it can build weapons. The former Italian prime minister Mario Draghi jolted the continent by arguing that market fragmentation was killing innovation in tech.

“Many conservatives are convinced that Europe is too secular and decadent to ever recover.  Maybe. But Germany is a serious nation. France has an unsurpassed Civil Service.  History has shown that the British people can be trusted when times are hard.

“A new age of nuclear proliferation. As American withdraws its security umbrella, nations around the world, from Poland to even Japan, will conclude that they need nuclear weapons.  What could go wrong?

“China will fill the gap. As America betrays its friends, China will seek to make them....

“Trumpian incompetence will provoke a counterreaction, which will prove to be an opportunity and rebirth. When that happens people will be ready to hear the truth that Trump will never understand – that when you turn America into a vast extortion machine, you get some short-term wins as weaker powers bend to your gangsterism, but you will burn the relationships, at home and abroad, that are actually the source of America’s long-term might.”

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Wall Street and the Economy

The Federal Reserve held the line on interest rates, as expected, at its Open Market Committee meeting, Tues.-Wed., with the Trump administration’s policies appearing to have tilted the U.S. economy toward slower growth and at least temporarily higher inflation, Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday at his post-meeting press conference, drawing the ire of the president, as we’ll see below.

The Fed’s formal statement started out:

“Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

“The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased.  [Emphasis mine.]  The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

Powell described the current environment as one where “uncertainty is remarkably high,” and “There may be a delay in further progress” bringing inflation down, he said.

Powell, who had so far steered mostly clear of commenting on Trump’s policies, said that the risks to inflation exist because of the president’s tariffs, which he said “tend to bring growth down” and “inflation up.”

With overall sentiment sliding due to policy “turmoil,” prices are projected to rise faster than previously expected at least in part, and perhaps largely, because of Trump’s plans to impose duties on imports from our trading partners. So the Fed held its benchmark funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%.

But in its Summary of Economic Projections, Fed policymakers are still looking for two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year, largely due to weakened growth prospects offsetting higher than earlier forecast inflation, as spelled out in the following....

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“President Trump likes to blame Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for any trouble in the economy, but on Wednesday Mr. Powell was able to blame Mr. Trump’s tariffs for at least some of an anticipated inflation rebound.

“The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday held short-term interest rates steady, but the bigger news concerned the Fed’s updated economic projections.  Policy makers now expect GDP growth of 1.7% this year, down from the 2.1% they estimated in December, and they think their preferred measure of core inflation [Ed. PCE, personal consumption expenditures index] will hover at 2.8% instead of 2.5% as they predicted three months ago.

“Under any other circumstance, investors might have spent the rest of the afternoon fretting about stagflation, especially given persistent concerns in markets about a possible recession.  Instead, Mr. Powell shifted the focus to the tariffs Mr. Trump keeps threatening against all and sundry as an explanation for whatever might ail the economy this year.  This provides Mr. Powell convenient cover as it becomes clearer that last autumn’s series of interest-rate cuts, totaling one percentage point, were premature....

“The biggest theme Wednesday was Mr. Powell’s uncertainty about where the economy goes now under Mr. Trump’s stewardship.  Amen.  But one thing the Fed has figured out for sure is that at last it has a political foil for inflation.”

The market is pricing in, for now, a Fed rate cut in June, which would be set up by Chair Powell in his presser following the May 6-7 meeting.

President Trump was not happy, saying the Fed should cut interest rates now, posting on Truth Social:

“The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S. Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy,” Trump said.  “Do the right thing. April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!!!”

And indeed, we all await April 2nd and Trump’s next moves on the tariff front.

But wait...there’s more! Another post from the president Friday morning.

“April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!!! For DECADES we have been ripped off and abused by every nation in the World, both friend and foe.  Now it is finally time for the Good Ol’ USA to get some of that MONEY, and RESPECT, BACK. GOD BLESS AMERICA!!!”

The markets reacted negatively again after seeing this.  But then later, addressing reporters from the Oval Office, Trump said there was “flexibility,” and the market rallied back.

Separately, the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) cut its global economic outlook and warned that a broader trade war would sap growth further.

Global growth is on course to slow slightly from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, the Paris-based policy forum said, cutting its projections from 3.3% for both this year and next in its previous outlook from December.

U.S. economic growth was seen slowing this year to 2.2% before losing more steam next year to only 1.6%, the OECD said, cutting its forecasts from 2.4% and 2.1% previously.

The Mexican economy is now projected to contract 1.3% this year after a prior forecast for 1.2% growth.  Canada’s growth rate would slow to 0.7% this year and next, well below the 2% previously forecast for both years.

The euro area economy was seen gaining momentum this year with 1.0% growth and 1.2% in 2026, though that was down from previous forecasts for 1.3% and 1.5% respectively.

For China, the OECD forecast 4.8% growth in 2025, before slowing to 4.4% in 2026.

However, the OECD said the global outlook would be much worse if Washington escalates the trade war by raising tariffs on all non-commodity imports and its trade partners do the same.

Back to the U.S. economy, in other economic news, February retail sales rose only 0.2%, far less than expected, while February industrial production was better than forecast, up 0.7%.

February housing starts were better than expected, 1.501 million annualized units, with existing home sales for the month also exceeding expectations, a 4.26 million pace, up 4.2% month-over-month, but down 1.2% year-over-year.  The median home price of $398,400 is up 3.8% from a year ago, as well as a record for February.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for first-quarter growth is -1.8%, an improvement from -2.4% the week before.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.67%.

Next Friday, we have the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer, the PCE, which will impact any decision they may make in June.

Europe and Asia

We had the final February inflation data for the euro area on Wednesday, courtesy of Eurostat, just 2.3%, down from 2.5% in January. A year earlier, the rate was 2.6%. Ex-food and energy, the figure was 2.6%, down from 3.3% a year ago, more good news for the European Central Bank.

Headline inflation:

Germany 2.6%, France 0.9%, Italy 1.7%, Spain 2.9%, Ireland 1.4%, Greece 3.0%, Netherlands 3.5%.

Britain: The Bank of England matched the Federal Reserve’s decision a day earlier, leaving its key interest rate unchanged, with major economies on both sides of the Atlantic facing faltering economic growth, rising inflation and President Trump’s trade threats.

“There’s a lot of economic uncertainty,” said BOE Gov. Andrew Bailey.  “We still think that interest rates are on a gradually declining path. We’ll be looking very closely at how the global and domestic economies are evolving.”

Germany: German lawmakers passed a landmark spending package, taking a major step toward unlocking 1 trillion euros ($1.08 trillion) in debt financing for defense and infrastructure and heralding the end of decades of budget austerity.

The controversial legislation – pushed by conservative Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz – was approved Tuesday in the lower house of parliament with 512 votes out of a total of 733, comfortably clearing the two-thirds threshold required for changes to the country’s constitutional borrowing rules.

The bill was also backed by the Social Democrats and the Greens.

“This is possibly the biggest spending package in the history of our country,” Lars Klingbeil, the co-leader of the Social Democrats and a likely cabinet member in the next governing coalition, said during the debate in Berlin. “Germany must take on its leadership role in Europe.”

This is a big victory for Merz.  

Turning to Asia...China combines its January and February data on some key metrics due to the changing date for the Lunar New Year, and industrial production for the two months was up 5.9% year-over-year, retail sales up 4.0%, and fixed asset investment 4.1% (YTD); all three in line or better than expected. 

But the unemployment rate came in at 5.4%, vs. a consensus of 5.1%, so a surprise.

Japan reported on February inflation, up 3.7% vs. 4% prior, though ex-food and energy it was 2.6% vs. 2.5% in January.

February exports rose 11.4% year-over-year, a bit less than consensus, while imports fell 0.7%.

January industrial production rose 2.2% Y/Y.

Street Bytes

--Stocks finished up on the week, with Nasdaq breaking a brutal four-week losing streak that saw the average fall a whopping 11.3%, Nasdaq up 0.2%.  The Dow Jones finished up 1.2% to 41985, and the S&P 500 rose 0.5%.

Earnings season is around the corner and the commentary from CEOs is not likely to be rosy, given the uncertainty over tariffs, and a clear slowdown of some kind.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 4.22%  2-yr. 3.94%  10-yr. 4.24%  30-yr. 4.59%

The 2-year has declined from 4.42% in mid-January amid the growth slowdown concerns.  It was trading at 4.13% prior to the Fed’s statement and Chair Powell’s presser on Wednesday.

--Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang tried to quell investor concerns about the artificial intelligence boom Tuesday at an event he dubbed “the Super Bowl of AI.”

The world will need 100 times more computing power for advanced AI than it considered necessary a year ago, he said at a conference that has grown from a sleepy chip developer gathering in Silicon Valley into a rock-concert-like event that filled a hockey arena.

AI expansions into models that can “reason” and act as “agents” to carry out tasks for humans will require far greater computational firepower, which comes from the kinds of chips that Nvidia manufactures.

“This last year, this is where almost the entire world got it wrong,” he said.  Nvidia shares have been volatile since the release of DeepSeek in January, a model released by a Chinese startup that said it had built sophisticated AI models that required fewer of Nvidia’s chips.  That led some investors to question whether future AI systems will need fewer Nvidia chips for training and day-to-day operations.

So-called reasoning models spend more time “thinking” about a problem before delivering an answer. They break each prompt down into steps, a process that is best used for complex problems, according to companies building those models. They might generate so much data that computing speeds will need to increase to process the data quickly for users.  Users won’t want to wait 10 times longer to get an answer that relies on 10 times more data, he said.

Huang also spent time hyping AI agents, which are designed to complete tasks – such as booking a flight or making a dinner reservation – for humans.  Agents, which often rely on reasoning models, require a lot more computational power, which means sustained or even higher demand for Nvidia’s chips, Huang said.

“The amount of computation needed is easily 100 times more than we thought we needed at this time last year,” Huang said, reiterating a point he has made in recent months.

--Alphabet is on track to close a $32 billion deal for cybersecurity company Wiz after failing to acquire the company last year.  The deal has the potential to significantly strengthen its cloud business – in which growth decelerated during the last quarter.

Barring any last-minute setbacks this would be Alphabet’s most expensive acquisition to data.

Last year, a $23 billion deal failed amid concerns about the time it would take to overcome regulatory hurdles and disagreement on whether Wiz would become part of Alphabet’s cloud-computing business or remain its own unit.

But that was when Lina Khan was chair of the Federal Trade Commission, and now it’s under Andrew Ferguson.  His response will set the tone for dealmaking in the future.

--Foxconn Technology Group reported weaker-than-expected quarterly results but forecast a strong 2025 as the world’s largest contract electronics maker diversifies its business, moving into growth areas such as artificial intelligence and electric vehicles.

The Taiwanese company said over the weekend it expects revenue to grow strongly this year, supported by its cloud and networking business.

Foxconn, best known for assembling Apple’s iPhones, now plays an increasingly important role in building AI servers for U.S. tech giants such as Amazon and Nvidia.

Cloud and networking products, which include AI servers, made up 26% of its fourth-quarter revenue and formed its second-biggest revenue stream, behind smart consumer-electronics products.

Fourth-quarter net profit dropped 13% to the equivalent of $1.4 billion, missing estimates.  But Q4 revenue rose 15% from a year earlier.

Earlier, Foxconn said it has developed its own artificial-intelligence model called FoxBrain. The company said its large language model with reasoning capabilities was built in-house and trained in four weeks.

The company has also expressed interest in teaming up with Nissan Motor after the Japanese automaker ended merger talks with Honda Motor.

--Chinese smartphone and electronics maker Xiaomi announced its net profit nearly doubled in the fourth quarter on record revenue, thanks to the strong performance across its business segments.

The Beijing-based company said Tuesday that fourth-quarter net profit rose 90% from a year earlier to the equivalent of $1.24 billion. Revenue rose 49% to $15.1 billion, with sales from its smartphone business rising 16%.

For the full year net profit increased 35%.

Xiaomi began manufacturing EVs last year with the launch of the SU7 sedan after selling smartphones, household appliances and smart gadgets for most of its 15-year history.  It delivered more than 135,000 cars in 2024.

Xiaomi’s fourth-quarter global smartphone shipments rose 5% from a year earlier to 42.7 million handsets, ranking it third globally, with a market share of 13%, according to researcher Canalys.

In China, it has a market share of 16%.

Xiaomi aims to ship 180 million smartphones this year, versus 168.5 million in 2024.

--Memory-maker Micron Technologies reported strong second-quarter earnings results Thursday afternoon. 

Adjusted earnings per share were $1.56, above the Street’s consensus of $1.43, and up from 42 cents last year. Revenue for the quarter reached $8.05 billion, above expectations of $7.90 billion, and up 38% on the year.  The out-performance was driven by NAND storage.

Micron’s adjusted EPS outlook for the second quarter came in at $1.57 at the midpoint of its range, compared to analysts’ $1.52 estimate.  Guidance for revenue was also strong at $8.8 billion at the midpoint, up 51% on the year, but the shares dropped as investors seemingly didn’t like the revenue mix and falling margins.

--FedEx lowered its outlook for the year, as uncertainty is weighing on demand for shipping services between businesses, as are inflation and rapidly evolving trade policies. CFO John Dietrich said following the release of earnings after the close on Thursday that it was reasonable to assume things aren’t going to improve through the first half of its fiscal 2026.

It now expects fiscal 2025 revenue to be slightly down from last year, versus its previous forecast for flat sales.  Adjusted earnings are expected to be between $18 and $18.60 a share, also lower than previous forecasts.

Adjusted fiscal third quarter earnings of $4.51 per share were a nickel short of consensus, but revenue of $22.2 billion beat expectations.

The shares fell 11% at the open Friday morning.

--What a [blankshow] last night and today, Friday, at London’s Heathrow Airport.  A major fire at a sub-station near the airport was described as “catastrophic’ by Britain’s energy minister, who said that a back-up generator had also been affected by the blaze.  The airport was shut down, impacting some 1,300 flights...of which 850+ were outright cancelled at Heathrow, others diverted.

The airport is a major hub for transatlantic travel and the ripple effects are expected to continue for several days.  Authorities then announced Friday afternoon that flights would resume later in the evening, but far from normal operations for a while.  Counter-terrorism police are investigating the incident, though there is no indication of foul play.

--The Transportation Safety Board of Canada released a preliminary report on the Delta Air Lines jet that flipped upside down and burst into flames as it tried to land in Toronto last month.  The alert system indicated a high rate of descent less than three seconds before touchdown.

When the plane’s ground proximity warning system sounded 2.6 seconds before touchdown, the airspeed was approximately 250 kph (155 mph).  It says the plane’s landing gear folded into the retracted position at touchdown and the wing detached from the fuselage, releasing a cloud of jet fuel, which caught fire as the plane slid along the runway.

The fuselage rolled upside down and a large portion of the tail came off in the process.  All 76 passengers and four crew members survived. A final report could take a year or more.

--TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2024

3/20...115 percent of 2024 levels
3/19...109
3/18...88
3/17...99
3/16...116
3/15...91
3/14...108
3/13...113

--Nike topped earnings and sales expectations for the fiscal third quarter, but the athletic apparel maker warned that its efforts to overhaul the business would take a toll on revenue and profitability growth and the stock fell 8% early Friday.  CEO Elliott Hill said they weren’t satisfied with their overall results and could and would do better.

The company reported adjusted earnings of 54 cents a share, and revenue of $11.3 billion, which was down 9% from a year ago. For the current quarter, it expects revenue to be down in the low mid-teens range, in line with the 12% decline analysts expect.  This estimate includes the effects of newly implemented tariffs from Chinese imports, and reflects the uncertainty in the operating environment, including geopolitical dynamics and withering consumer confidence.

CFO Matthew Friend said the fiscal fourth quarter will also see the biggest effects of its overhaul, which it calls “Win Now,” adding that the headwinds to revenue and gross margin will begin to moderate after that.

Nike is focused on marketing and product innovation, while clearing out old styles by increasing markdowns, which has dragged on profitability.

[Note to self...go to Dick’s Sporting Goods looking for sales on Nikeware.]

--General Mills forecast a sharp decline in annual sales and profit on Wednesday, hit by increased competition from cheaper private label brands amid a still high cost of living in an uncertain macro environment.

The shares fell a bit.

Consumers, who are burdened with the still high inflationary prices, are on the lookout for cheaper alternatives for their day-to-day needs despite General Mills cutting prices of its products including refrigerated baked goods.

Chairman CEO Jeff Harmening noted that “greater-than-expected retailer inventory headwinds and a slowdown in snacking categories” hurt third-quarter sales.

The company expects full-year organic sales to be down 1.5% to 2%, compared with a prior forecast of flat to up 1%.

GIS also sees full-year adjusted profit declining in the range of 7% to 8%, compared with a prior forecast of down between 3% to 1%.

--Tesla shares continued to fall, a ninth consecutive week, though a rally Thursday and Friday reduced the losses. Elon Musk’s political activities aren’t helping.

The company, in an unsigned letter addressed to the U.S. trade representative, warned it and other U.S. exporters could be harmed by countries retaliating to Trump’s trade tariffs.

Tesla, in the letter, said that while it “supports” fair trade it was concerned U.S. exporters were “exposed to disproportionate impacts” if other countries retaliated to tariffs.

The letter was dated the same day that President Trump hosted an event at the White House where he promised to buy a Tesla in a show of support for Musk.

It is unclear if Musk was aware who wrote the letter.

In the letter, Tesla said it was making changes to its supply chains to find as many local suppliers for its cars and batteries so it was less reliant on foreign markets.

“None the less,” it warned, “even with aggressive localization of the supply chain, certain parts and components are difficult or impossible to source within the U.S.”

Tesla announced Thursday it was recalling 46,000 Cybertruck vehicles in the U.S. – nearly all made up to February – to fix an exterior panel that could detach while driving, adding to a series of call-backs for the pickup truck since last year.

That would kind of suck if you were driving behind one and there was detachment.

One more...Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick appeared on Fox News and urged viewers Wednesday night to buy Tesla stock, an apparent violation of federal ethics rules that prohibit officials from endorsing products or businesses.

“I think if you want to learn something on this show tonight, buy Tesla. It’s unbelievable that this guy’s stock is this cheap.  It’ll never be this cheap again,” Lutnick said.

--BYD shares rose to an all-time high on Tuesday after the Chinese electric-vehicle company unveiled its new fast-charging technology and announced an employee share incentive plan.

BYD unveiled its new charging technology, which it said is capable of providing 400 kilometers of range in five minutes of charging time.  That means users can charge their EVs as quickly as it takes conventional cars to refuel, BYD said.

The charging will be available on the company’s new sedan and SUV models, which will go on sale next month, BYD said.

In other words, this company is an existential threat worldwide, depending on how restrictive countries are in allowing it to enter their markets.  BYD is the top EV seller in China with deliveries of 318,233 units for February, as Tesla has seen its market share erode there, the world’s largest EV market, with February sales of just 30,688 units.

--Audi said it will cut 7,500 jobs by 2029 as the automaker looks to improve its future competitiveness.

Audi – part of the Volkswagen Group – said the measures will help it achieve medium-term savings of more than 1 billion euros ($1.08 billion) annually.

“Economic conditions are becoming increasingly tougher, competitive pressure and political uncertainties are presenting the company with immense challenges,” Audi said.

The carmaker employs more than 87,000 people worldwide, with 54,000 in Germany, according to its website.

--Siemens said it will cut more than 6,000 jobs in it automation and electric-vehicle charging businesses as part of its plans to boost competitiveness.

The German industrial conglomerate on Tuesday said the measures will affect around 5,600 jobs worldwide in the automation segment and around 450 jobs globally in its electric-vehicle charging business.

Germany will see 2,850 of the job losses, which will be implemented by the end of fiscal 2025.

The company employs 312,000 people worldwide, with 86,000 in Germany.

--Brad K., steel pool manufacturer, told me that the Canadian mill he buys from gave him second-quarter pricing, up 19.5% over first quarter, but that based on his agreement, he should have been allowed to place his order at Q1 pricing for shipping during Q2.  “They politely declined to do that.”  U.S. mills are raising price by a like amount.

--Morgan Stanley is planning to cut about 2,000 employees by month’s end in the first major workforce reduction under CEO Ted Pick.  The cuts will take place across the firm, with the exception of its roughly 15,000 financial advisers.  The bank has about 80,000 employees overall.

The move is aimed at keeping a lid on costs as executives grapple with minimal attrition in their ranks.

--California approved a 22% rate increase by State Farm General Insurance, its largest home insurer, in response to the devastating wildfires that swept Los Angeles in January.

State Farm grew rapidly in recent years to cover 2.8 million homeowners, with more than 20% of California’s market.

California’s insurance commissioner, Ricardo Lara, said his approval was conditioned on State Farm justifying its need for the increase by bringing data to a public hearing on April 8, as well as calling on the insurer to pursue a $500 million capital infusion from its parent.

State Farm’s California insurance business was already in the hole, with $5.6 billion in insurance losses from 2016 to 2024.

In seeking its 22% rate hike, State Farm said its California unit faces insolvency and threatened to pull out of the state, leaving Lara with little choice but to approve the request.

--Forever 21’s operator in the United States filed for bankruptcy on Sunday, as the apparel company, which helped popularize fast fashion in the United States, struggled to compete with online retailers.

The company listed assets of between $100 million and $500 million, and liabilities of $1 billion to $5 billion. Forever 21 also filed for bankruptcy in 2019.

At its peak, the chain had more than $4 billion in annual sales and employed more than 43,000 people worldwide in hundreds of stores.

--The Wall Street Journal’s James R. Hagerty had a fascinating obituary on Bob Kierlin, 85, the co-founder and CEO of Fastenal, an international seller of nuts, bolts and other supplies for manufacturing and construction firms.

As in Kierlin took a salary of $120,000 a year at the company’s peak in the 1990s, with no bonuses or stock options, which was less than some Fastenal store managers earned.  He clipped grocery coupons and bought secondhand suits.  On business trips he stayed in discount motels and often shared a room.  He paid for his own meals on the road.

Granted, he was worth hundreds of millions from his original stake, but when the board offered him a higher salary, he said he didn’t need it.

Kierlin didn’t have a personal secretary or even his own parking place outside the “drab concrete head office in his hometown of Winona, Minn.  Much of the furniture inside that headquarters was used.”

But this is a great story.

“Shortly after Dan Florness joined Fastenal as chief financial officer in 1996, Kierlin invited him on a trip from Winona to the West Coast to meet investors.  Florness was surprised to learn they didn’t need to book airline tickets.  They would be driving – starting around dawn and continuing up to 16 hours a day.  That saved money and allowed for more store visits.

“Along the way, Kierlin stopped for lunch at Burger King and chose Super 8 or comparable motels.  Driving down lonely highways in Nebraska and Wyoming, Florness learned the Kierlin creed of extreme cost control and decentralized management.”

Florness, who worked for KPMG, “found Kierlin’s thriftiness refreshing and now serves as CEO of the company.”

Kierlin was generous in donating to educational, fine arts and other causes.  In June 2006, the St. Paul Pioneer Press reported that his shares in Fastenal were worth $440 million and that he had distributed about $100 million to charities and nonprofits and to Fastenal employees through gifts of his own stock.

Kierlin founded Fastenal in 1967 with three high-school friends, after he had earned engineering and MBA degrees at the University of Minnesota, served as a teacher in the Peace Corps in Venezuela, and worked for IBM, disliking this last one for what he saw as a top-down management style.

He wanted his store managers to figure out things on their own. They were allowed to change their product mix to suit local demand, without waiting for permission from headquarters.  “There’s a confidence that comes with making decisions, messing some things up and fixing them,” Florness said.

--Following his well-reviewed turn as host for the Oscars the other week, Conan O’Brien was named host for next year, a very early renewal for an Oscar host.

“The only reason I’m hosting the Oscars next year is I want to hear Adrien Brody finish his speech,” O’Brien said in a statement.

Foreign Affairs

Russia/Ukraine: President Trump accepted Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s counteroffer on Ukraine as the two men spoke by phone Tuesday.  Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had been seeking a comprehensive, 30-day ceasefire to begin moving Putin’s Ukraine invasion toward some kind of more peaceful state.  But Putin made it clear Russia is not eager to halt its invasion or attacks on Ukraine just yet.

Putin would only agree to pause attacks against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which Russia has often targeted over winter months to increase the misery of not just the military but the wider Ukrainian population.  Ukraine was also to cease targeting Russian energy infrastructure, though observers noted the precise terms of the selective truce remain a mystery.

“It is unclear which targets are explicitly prohibited under the 30-day moratorium given the difference in language between the two readouts of the call,” analysts at the Institute for the Study of War noted in their Tuesday assessment.

The White House celebrated the Trump-Putin deal as “movement to peace,” more than three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion.  The White House also said that the “technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea” would be coming soon in negotiations somewhere in the Middle East.

The White House statement after the call said:

“Today, President Trump and President Putin spoke about the need for peace and a ceasefire in the Ukraine war. Both leaders agreed this conflict needs to end with a lasting peace. They also stressed the need for improved bilateral relations between the United States and Russia.  The blood and treasure that both Ukraine and Russia have been spending in this war would be better spent on the needs of their people.

“This conflict should never have started and should have been ended long ago with sincere and good faith peace efforts.  The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace.  These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East.”

The Kremlin said:

“The leaders spoke broadly about the Middle East as a region of potential cooperation to prevent future conflicts. They further discussed the need to stop proliferation of strategic weapons and will engage with others to ensure the broadest possible application. The two leaders shared the view that Iran should never be in a position to destroy Israel.

“The two leaders agreed that a future with an improved bilateral relationship between the United States and Russia has huge upside.  This includes enormous economic deals and geopolitical stability when peace has been achieved.

“The leaders continued a detailed and frank exchange of views on the situation around Ukraine. Vladimir Putin expressed gratitude to Donald Trump for his desire to help achieve the noble goal of ending hostilities and human losses.

“Having confirmed his fundamental commitment to a peaceful resolution of the conflict, the Russian President declared his readiness to thoroughly work out possible ways to resolve the conflict together with his American partners, which should be comprehensive, sustainable and long-term.  And, of course, to take into account the absolute need to eliminate the root causes of the crisis [Ed. emphasis mine...this is a killer line] and ensure Russia’s legitimate interests in the field of security....

“Attention was drawn to the barbaric terrorist crimes committed by Ukrainian fighters against the civilian population of the Kursk region.  It was emphasized that the key condition for preventing the escalation of the conflict and working toward its resolution through political and diplomatic means should be a complete cessation of foreign military aid and the provision of intelligence information to Kyiv....

“During the conversation, Donald Trump put forward a proposal for the parties to the conflict to mutually refrain from attacks on energy infrastructure facilities for 30 days. Vladimir Putin responded positively to this initiative and immediately gave the Russian military the appropriate command.”

The Kremlin readout continued on and on....

“Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump also touched upon other issues on the international agenda, including the situation in the Middle East and the Red Sea region.  Joint efforts will be made to stabilize the situation in crisis areas, establish cooperation on nuclear non-proliferation and global security. This, in turn, will contribute to improving the overall atmosphere of Russian-American relations.  One of the positive examples is the vote made in solidarity in the UN on the resolution regarding the Ukrainian conflict.

“Mutual interest in normalizing bilateral relations was expressed in light of the special responsibility of Russia and the United States for ensuring security and stability in the world.  In this context, a wide range of areas in which our countries could establish interaction was considered.

“A number of ideas were discussed that are moving toward the development of mutually beneficial cooperation in the economy and energy sector.

“Donald Trump supported Vladimir Putin’s idea to organize hockey matches in the United States and Russia between Russian and American players playing in the NHL and KHL (Kontinental Hockey League). The presidents agreed to remain in contact on all issues raised.”

Putin did agree to a prisoner exchange – 175 for 175 people – which was carried out Wednesday.

But “shortly after the [Putin-Trump phone] call ended, air raid alerts sounded in Kyiv, followed by explosions in the city,” the Associated Press reported. Russia, too, claimed to have been attacked by Ukrainian drones after the phone call.

“Kyiv’s air force said it destroyed 72 of 145 drones launched by Russia overnight, while Russia’s defense ministry said its units downed 57 Ukrainian drones,” Reuters reported.

President Zelensky said: “It cannot be that Russia will hit our infrastructure and we will keep silent,” he said.  “We will respond.”

Putin didn’t concede anything in the talks with Trump, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War wrote.  “Putin demanded on March 18 that Ukraine stop mobilizing (i.e, recruiting and training) forces during a potential temporary ceasefire,” and he “called for a halt to all foreign military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine but did not discuss Russia’s military support from North Korea, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and Iran,” ISW noted.

ISW’s bottom line: “The persistence of Putin’s demands for Ukraine’s capitulation demonstrates that Putin is not interested in good-faith negotiations to pursue Trump’s stated goal of achieving a lasting peace in Ukraine.”

Wednesday, prior to speaking with President Trump, President Zelensky said a vow by Putin not to attack energy infrastructure was “very much at odds with reality” following the overnight barrage of drone strikes across the country.

“Even last night, after Putin’s conversation with Trump, when Putin said that he was allegedly giving orders to stop strikes on Ukrainian energy, there were 150 drones launched overnight, including on energy facilities,” Zelensky said at a news conference in Helsinki with Finnish President Alexander Stubb.

Zelensky said that one of the most difficult issues in future negotiations would be the issue of territorial concessions.

“For us, the red line is the recognition of the Ukrainian temporarily occupied territories as Russian,” he said.  “We will not go for it.”

Zelensky and Trump then held their phone call, and the Ukrainian leader agreed with Trump to accept Russia’s offer for a mutual pause in attacks on energy targets as a step toward a broader cease-fire.

During the call, Trump also floated the idea of the United States taking control of Ukrainian power plants – an idea that Ukrainian energy experts said was unworkable.

It was not immediately clear how or when a pause in strikes would take hold. As the statements were issued, alarms sounded in Kyiv, again, to warn of Russian drones in the sky.

Even a narrow agreement between Zelensky and Putin would leave a wide chasm between their positions on how the war could end.  And Zelensky has characterized some of the Russian leader’s proposals as stalling tactics as he maneuvers for military advantage and the best possible deal from the American president.

In a social media post, Zelensky said that Trump had debriefed him on his conversation the day before with Putin.

“President Trump shared details of his conversation with Putin and the key issues discussed.  One of the first steps toward fully ending the war could be ending strikes on energy and other civilian infrastructure,” Zelensky wrote.  “I supported this step, and Ukraine confirmed that we are ready to implement it.”

The Trump administration revealed that technical teams would meet in Saudi Arabia “in the coming days” to discuss broadening the cease-fire on energy sites to one covering activity in the Black Sea, “on the way to a full cease-fire.”

President Trump on Truth Social Wednesday afternoon:

“Just completed a very good telephone call with President Zelensky of Ukraine. It lasted approximately one hour.  Much of the discussion was based on the call made yesterday with President Putin in order to align both Russia and Ukraine in terms of their requests and needs. We are very much on track, and I will ask Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and National Security Adviser Michael Waltz, to give an accurate description of the points discussed. That statement will be put out shortly.”

A joint statement from Rubio and Waltz said the talk “significantly helped in moving toward ending the war.”

--David Ignatius / Washington Post

“Any negotiation usually begins with the two sides far apart.  A mediator’s job is to coax a process of mutual concessions.  But so far, the squeeze from Trump has been one-sided.  He applied a chokehold to Zelensky after a disastrous meeting last month in the Oval Office, pausing U.S. military and intelligence assistance and demanding a share of Ukraine’s mineral and energy wealth.

“Will Trump place a similar tourniquet on Putin?  It seems unlikely, given his historical approach to the Russian leader.  But by taking on Putin, Trump could give himself a reset in global public opinion, showing that he’s no patsy against a strong counterpart.

“Trump has put himself on the diplomatic hot seat. He has promised the world a peace agreement.  But the path toward that laudable goal has a sharp fork ahead.  Trump will either confront Putin and get concessions that could frame a lasting deal, or he’ll back off and risk a bad deal that might be only a temporary pause in this terrible war.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“President Trump and Vladimir Putin talked on the phone on Tuesday, and neither side is divulging many details of their chat. But strip away the diplomatic pieties and the main result is that Mr. Putin didn’t agree to Mr. Trump’s 30-day cease-fire, while Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky did.  Have we figured out yet who’s the real obstacle to peace?

“ ‘Both leaders agreed this conflict needs to end with a lasting peace,’ the White House readout of the call said.  Mr. Putin made minor concessions, including a breather from targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.  [Ed. which hours later was a sham.]....

“Yet it’s clear the Kremlin is demanding major concessions even for a short-term cease-fire, much less for a broader peace deal.  The Russian readout repeated its demand for a ‘complete cessation of foreign military aid’ and intelligence sharing for Ukraine.  Mr. Putin also wants Ukraine cut out of the talks and deal only with the President – oh, and sanctions relief.

“These are terms Ukraine can’t accept, except at the end of a bludgeon.  A peace deal that disarms Ukraine won’t produce a long peace that lets Mr. Trump focus on his priorities.  Mr. Putin has been insisting on swallowing entire provinces in Ukraine, including territory his troops aren’t even occupying today....

“Mr. Putin is unlikely to budge from his core demands unless the President and Europe are willing to turn the screws on him with tougher sanctions and arming Ukraine to the hilt.  Mr. Putin is betting Mr. Trump won’t do that, and based on the mood music so far from this Administration, it isn’t a bad bet....

“Mr. Trump’s legacy would be permanently damaged by an outcome that the world perceives as a victory for Mr. Putin.  U.S. public opinion isn’t sold on Mr. Trump’s bent, with more than 75% of Americans saying in a survey this month they’re concerned that Mr. Putin wouldn’t honor a peace deal, including 69% of Republicans.

“For all the noise of negotiations, what matters are the terms of a peace deal.  Mr. Trump might want to keep a note card reminding him that roughly seven in 10 Americans wanted out of Afghanistan in 2021.  President Biden thought he’d be a hero for wrapping up that war.  We know how that turned out.”

--President Putin last Friday called for beleaguered Ukrainian troops in Kursk to “surrender.”  “If they lay down their arms and surrender, they will be guaranteed life and dignified treatment,” Putin said.

This was after President Trump urged Putin to spare the lives of the Ukrainian troops, which I noted last time.

Ukraine’s military leadership denied the claims.  “There is no threat of our units being encircled,” Ukraine’s General Staff posted on social media.

President Zelensky gave a somber assessment in comments to reporters in Kyiv. “The situation in the Kursk region is obviously very difficult,” while insisting the campaign still had value.

Russia, he said, had been forced to pull troops from other areas on the front line, easing pressure on Ukrainian forces fighting to keep control of the eastern logistics hub of Pokrovsk.

And according to a Reuters report, while Ukrainian soldiers have lost ground in Kursk, they are not encircled by Russian forces, per three U.S. and European officials familiar with their governments’ intelligence assessments.

That said, the situation is not good, and Ukrainian forces are in retreat.  But one of them, “Artem,” told the BBC that when it came to the phone call between Trump and Putin:

“To me these calls...are just surreal.  Trump wants to end the war because he promised to do it – and Putin wants to deceive Trump to continue his war.  I can’t take their conversations seriously.”

Artem, whose home is in the now Russian-occupied Luhansk region, tells the BBC he feels disappointed with the U.S. and Trump.  “What can I feel when they just want to give away my home?”

--Russia pounded Ukraine’s Black Sea city of Odesa late on Thursday with one of its biggest drone attacks, injuring three teenagers and sparking fires as the Czech president visited, Ukrainian officials said.  Ukraine’s air force said 214 drones were launched at the country in total.

Czech President Petr Pavel, a vocal backer of Kyiv, has led an effort to source more than one million artillery shells for Ukraine’s war effort.  He was in the port city for talks with regional officials at the time of the strikes.

Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military analyst, told Reuters that Russia used new tactics for the attack, having its drones descend from a higher altitude than usual and at high speeds to make it harder for Ukraine’s air defenses.

Separately on Friday, Russia and Ukraine accused each other of attacking a major Russian gas pumping and measuring station in the Kursk region.

--President Trump last Friday night in an interview said that he was “being a little bit sarcastic” when he repeatedly claimed as a candidate that he would have the Russia-Ukraine war solved within 24 hours – and even before he even took office.  “What I really mean is I’d like to get it settled, and I think I’ll be successful.”

Trump then said on Saturday that General Keith Kellogg’s role has been narrowed from special envoy for Ukraine and Russia to only Ukraine, after Russian officials had sought to exclude him from talks aiming to end the war.

Some high-ranking Russian officials have complained that Kellogg was, in their view, too sympathetic to Kyiv.

Kellogg has been personally absent from high-level discussions in recent weeks.

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Israel/Gaza: Israel launched extensive strikes against Hamas across Gaza on Tuesday, shattering a ceasefire and following a breakdown in talks to release the remaining hostages.

Citing frustration with the lack of progress in talks, Israel resumed airstrikes on the Gaza Strip before dawn Tuesday with a barrage that killed more than 400 people, according to Palestinian health authorities, who didn’t say how many were combatants.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the strikes after Hamas refused Israeli demands to free half of the remaining hostages as a precondition for extending the ceasefire.

Netanyahu said the attack was “only the beginning” and that Israel would press ahead until it achieves all of its war aims – destroying Hamas and freeing all hostages held by the militant group.

Hamas said at least six senior officials were killed in Tuesday’s strikes.

A senior Hamas official said the prime minister’s decision to return to war amounts to a “death sentence” for the remaining hostages.

Israel ordered Palestinians to evacuate from a number of locations across the Gaza Strip.

The attacks continued Wednesday. Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that further evacuations could be ordered and that attacks could be stepped up significantly.

“Gaza residents, this is a final warning,” Katz said on X. “It will become much more difficult and you will pay the full price.”

Also Wednesday, Israel said it sent ground troops back into the center and south of the Gaza Strip, expanding the military operation after the wave of airstrikes the day before.

Israel said its forces were moving into a key corridor (“Netzarim Corridor”) that bisects the Gaza Strip across its center line, aiming to split the northern and southern halves of the territory.  It said other forces would be positioned in the south and ready to operate in Gaza.

The troop movements further roll back gains Hamas made under a two-month cease-fire and are part of a strategy of gradually ramping up pressure on the terrorist group.  They came as Egypt floated a proposal for Hamas to release a limited number of hostages in exchange for an immediate halt to the strikes.

Arab mediators said the proposal, which was presented to Israel and Hamas late Tuesday, called for the return of 21-year-old American-Israeli hostage Edan Alexander along with the bodies of four other U.S. hostages in exchange for a cease-fire that would last at least a month and the commencement of negotiations to end the war.

Israel’s return to a military campaign came as Netanyahu faces mounting domestic pressure, with mass protests planned over his handling of the hostage crisis and his decision to fire the head of Israel’s internal security agency (Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar).  His latest testimony in a long-running corruption trial was canceled after the strikes.

The strikes appeared to give Netanyahu a political boost. A far-right party led by Itamar Ben-Gvir that had bolted the government over the ceasefire announced Tuesday it was rejoining.

Wednesday night into Thursday, further Israeli strikes killed at least 85 Palestinians across the Strip, bringing the total to nearly 600.  Hours later, the Israeli military restored a blockade on northern Gaza, including Gaza City, that it had maintained for most of the war.  It warned residents against using the main highway to enter or leave the north and said only passage to the south would be allowed on the coastal road.

Expect massive protests this weekend across Israel over Netanyahu’s moves.  Today, Israel’s Supreme Court ordered a temporary halt to the dismissal of Ronen Bar.

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Iran/Yemen:  The Houthi militia in Yemen vowed to retaliate after President Trump ordered large-scale military strikes on targets controlled by the group that it says killed at least 53 people, Saturday.

For more than a year, the Houthis have launched attacks against Israel and threatened commercial shipping in the Red Sea in solidarity with their ally Hamas. The Houthis suspended the campaign after a cease-fire was reached in Gaza but have vowed to step up attacks again after Israel instituted a blockade on aid to the enclave this month.  And this statement of theirs was prior to Israel renewing its attack on Gaza.

Trump on Truth Social, Wednesday:

“Reports are coming in that while Iran has lessened its intensity on Military Equipment and General Support to the Houthis, they are still sending large levels of Supplies. Iran must stop the sending of these Supplies IMMEDIATELY.  Let the Houthis fight it out themselves.  Either way they lose, but this way they lose quickly.  Tremendous damage has been inflicted upon the Houthi barbarians, and watch how it will get progressively worse – it’s not even a fair fight, and never will be.  They will be completely annihilated!”

Turkey:  Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, the main rival of President Tayyip Erdogan, was detained Wednesday on charges of corruption and aiding a terrorist group in what the main opposition party called “a coup against our next president.”

The move against the two-term mayor caps a months-long legal crackdown on opposition figures across the country which has been criticized as a politicized attempt to hurt their electoral prospects.

Turkey’s lira currency crashed as much as 12% to an all-time low of 42 to the dollar in response, underscoring worries over the eroding rule of law in the major emerging market and NATO member country that Erdogan has run for 22 years.

Imamoglu, 54, who leads Erdogan in some opinion polls, was to be named his Republican People’s Party (CHP) official presidential candidate within days.  He now faces two separate investigations that also include charges of leading a crime organization, bribery and tender rigging.

Large protests were planned in what could test authorities’ willingness to expand a legal blitz that already includes numerous indictments, the ousting of several elected opposition mayors and the jailing of a nationalist party leader.

CHP Ozgur Ozel urged opposition party unity and said his party will go ahead and select Imamoglu as presidential candidate on Sunday irrespective.

“Turkey is going through a coup against the next President. We are facing a coup attempt here,” Ozel said.

The next election is set for 2028, but Erdogan, 71, has reached his two-term limit as president after having earlier served as prime minister. If he wishes to run again, he must call an early election before his term ends or change the constitution.

Last year, Imamoglu’s CHP dealt Erdogan his worst electoral defeat in nationwide municipal elections, the CHP sweeping Turkey’s major cities and defeating Erdogan’s AK Party in former strongholds.

China: Walter Russell Mead wrote his global opinion piece for the Wall Street Journal this week, titled “Trump Doesn’t Faze Xi Jinping.”   Mr. Mead talks about the growing threats to Taiwan, as I’ve discussed recently, beyond what has been normal, and the emergence of a new landing barge specifically built for an invasion, as well as pressure on Australia, India and the entire region.

He concludes:

“That so much Chinese activity hasn’t drawn stronger responses or more attention from the West is good news for Mr. Xi.  In the old days of Deng Xiaoping’s ‘hide and bide’ strategy, a smaller, weaker China sought to evade hostile international scrutiny by pursuing an unambitious foreign policy. It played down threats against its neighbors, spoke of common efforts to solve territorial disputes, and muted its rhetoric against countries like Japan and the U.S.

“But these days China can have it all.  Because the world has become so disorderly, and because policymakers in Washington and elsewhere are caught up in addressing the burning issues of the day, Beijing can take dramatic steps that would have provoked international crises in Deng’s time, and today’s West hardly seems to notice.

“What this means for the Trump administration foreign policy is simple: China isn’t going to play nice.  From China’s perspective, American power is in rapid retreat.  Our alliances are fraying, our social cohesion is weakening, and as China sees it, President Trump’s style of apparently impulsive leadership, while capable of delivering an occasional unwelcome surprise, is amateurish and likely to fail.

“Team Trump wants to break up the alignment among China, Russia and Iran by intimidating Iran and seducing Vladimir Putin. China will use assets it can muster to keep the axis united and to keep its fellow revisionists pushing back against America’s international position.  China’s steady progress toward key goals in the Indo-Pacific reminds both Russia and Iran of the limits of American power, and will encourage revisionists everywhere to stay the course.”

Meanwhile, Chinese authorities have been putting immense pressure on CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd. over its plan to sell its Panama Ports stake by sharing a second newspaper commentary attacking the deal.

The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office last weekend reposted a commentary originally published in Ta Kung Pao, saying the planned sale of the ports by the Hong Kong company had triggered deep concerns among Chinese people and questioned whether the deal was harming China and aiding evil.

“Why were so many important ports transferred to ill-intentioned U.S. forces so easily?  What kind of political calculations are hidden in the so-called commercial behavior on the surface? Great entrepreneurs are never cold-blooded and speculating profit-seekers, but passionate and proud patriots!”  said the opinion piece in the newspaper, a publication that tends to support Beijing’s policies.

The conglomerate founded by Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing, 96, this month agreed to sell the bulk of its global ports business to a consortium led by BlackRock Inc; including a controlling share in ports near the Panama Canal, an apparent victory for President Trump after he had raised concerns over the ownership of same.

The increasing attacks on the deal have stoked concerns that China might somehow try to intervene.

Random Musings

--Presidential approval ratings....

Gallup: 45% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 51% disapprove.  37% of independents approve (Feb. 3-16).

Rasmussen: 51% approve, 47% disapprove (March 21).

A new NBC News poll has President Trump’s approval rating at 47%, equaling his best-ever mark as president, with 51% disapproving of his performance.  Among independents, 30% approve and 67% disapprove of Trump’s performance in office.  A large gender gap still persists, with men approving of Trump’s job performance 55%-43%, while women split the other way, 40%-58%.

Majorities of voters disapprove of Trump’s early performance on the economy (54% disapprove, 44% approve) and how he’s handling inflation and the cost of living (55% disapprove, 42% approve).

Fifty-five percent of voters approve of his handling of border security and immigration, while 43% disapprove.  A similar share, 56%, say he’s bringing the “right kind of change” on the issue, while 25% say he’s bringing the wrong change and 18% say he isn’t bringing change.

As for DOGE, 41% hold positive views of the effort and 47% hold negative views.

Elon Musk is unpopular, with 51% holding negative views and 39% viewing him positively.  Half of voters (49%) say they have positive views about federal workers, while 21% view them negatively and 29% feel neutral about them.

A new Fox News poll has 49% approving of the job President Trump is doing, 51% disapproving.  The 49% matches his high from April 2020, per Fox News.

Among independents, however, Trump receives only a 38% approval rating, 61% disapproval.

Elon Musk was unpopular in this one as well.  Forty percent “approve of the job he is doing working with DOGE, while 58% disapprove.” [70% of independents and 20% of Republicans disapprove.]

--A new CNN poll conducted by SSRS has the Democratic Party’s favorability rating at a record low of 29% for CNN polling dating back to 1992 and a drop of 20 points since January 2021, when Trump exited his first term under the shadow of Jan. 6.  The Republican Party’s rating currently stands at 36% favorability.

Democratic-aligned adults say, 52% to 48%, that the leadership of the Democratic Party is currently taking the party in the wrong direction. 

Democrats and Democratic-aligned independents say, 57% to 42%, that Democrats should mainly work to stop the Republican agenda, rather than working with the GOP majority to get some Democratic ideas into legislation.

Back in September 2017, a broad 74% majority of Democrats and Democratic leaners said their party should work with Republicans in an attempt to advance their own priorities, and just 23% advocated for a more combative approach.

Separately, joining Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in voting to move funding legislation forward that avoided a government shutdown last week were Senators Dick Durbin (Ill.) Brian Schatz (HI), Catherine Cortez Masto (NV), Gary Peters (MI), Jeanne Shaheen (NH), John Fetterman (PA), Kirsten Gillibrand (NY), Maggie Hassan (NH), and Angus King (ME).

That was for the key procedural matter, effectively thwarting a filibuster by their own party.  The actual vote was then 54-46, nearly along party lines.

House Democrats were furious, with Schumer the lighting rod absorbing the party’s anger.

“I knew when I made this decision, I’d get a lot of criticism from a lot of quarters,” Schumer said in an interview.  “Let’s face it, the House was in a much easier position.  They could vote no on the [funding bill] without shutting down the government. The Senate, we can’t do that.”

After House Republicans passed a continuing resolution to fund the government with just one Democratic vote a week ago Tuesday, Schumer and Senate Democrats were torn between two awful options.  They could back a Republican funding plan crafted without their input, or trigger the first government shutdown since 2019, potentially handing Trump the power to determine which government employees are essential and nonessential, which could help Trump further cut the federal workforce and dismantle government agencies.

But Schumer was criticized within the party for not having a coherent, caucus-wide strategy on how to approach the funding battle.

President Trump trolled Schumer: “Congratulations to Chuck Schumer for doing the right thing – Took ‘guts’ and courage!” he posted on Truth Social.

--Environmental group Greenpeace was ordered Wednesday to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in damages to a Texas-based pipeline company for its role in protests against the Dakota Access Pipeline’s construction in North Dakota.

A nine-person jury in south-central North Dakota awarded more than $660 million in damages to Energy Transfer and its subsidiary Dakota Access.  The company accused Greenpeace USA, parent group of Greenpeace International, and funding arm Greenpeace Fund Inc. of paying protesters to disrupt the pipeline’s construction and spreading misinformation about the controversial project.

The jury awarded more than $400 million in punitive damages.

Greenpeace said it would appeal.

Energy Transfer said the verdict was a “win for all law-abiding Americans who understand the difference between the right to free speech and breaking the law.”

The project began in 2016 and was completed the following year. The pipeline transports roughly 49% of the oil produced in North Dakota’s Bakken region.  Protests against the project began in April 2016 and ended in February 2017 when authorities cleared out the last holdouts from the protest camp.

--A New York Times investigation found that at least 274 Kenyan workers, mostly women, have died in Saudi Arabia in the past five years – women serving as housekeepers or nannies. An untold number of Ugandans have died, too, but their government releases no data.  The cause of death is physical or sexual abuse.

--At least 59 people were killed and more than 150 others injured (18 critically) in a fire that erupted during a concert at a nightclub in Kocani, North Macedonia, the country’s interior minister said in a news conference Sunday.

The fire broke out during a performance by a local pop group around 2:35 a.m., the blaze apparently being ignited by pyrotechnics that were used as part of the performance, the interior minister said, causing the roof to catch fire while concertgoers were still inside.  Video on social media shows sparklers onstage causing the ‘low’ ceiling to ignite while the musicians performed.

Imagine the impact this tragedy had on the country, a small, landlocked nation of 2.1 million in southeastern Europe that gained its independence from Yugoslavia in 1991.  Kocani is about 60 miles east of the capital, Skopje. 

This is shades of the ‘Great White’ concert fire at The Station nightclub in West Warwick, Rhode Island, Feb. 20, 2003, that killed 100 and injured 230.  That too was caused by pyrotechnics.

Every time I see pyrotechnics used at an indoor event, including like at The Grammys, or MTV Music Awards, I think that it is so senseless, and so needlessly dangerous.

--Harvard announced Monday that it plans to offer free tuition for students whose families make $200,000 or less per year.  Previously the university – where the annual cost to attend is about $83,000 – had waived tuition for families with incomes under $85,000.

The change will make Harvard the latest in a series of elite schools that have expanded financial aid after the Supreme Court banned the use of racial preferences in college admissions.

--More than 300 measles cases have now been confirmed in Texas and New Mexico, surpassing the total number of American cases seen all last year.

As of Friday, the Texas Department of State Health Services reported 309 cases in the state, with 40 in New Mexico, totaling 349 across both states, which compared with 285 cases in 2024 nationally, per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

While the death toll in Texas and New Mexico remains at two, 40 have been hospitalized in the former, two in the latter.

--The storm system that ripped through the southern half of the country and parts of the Midwest killed at least 42 people last weekend.  There were real fears, especially in the Birmingham, Ala., area, that the damage and toll could be far higher than the already catastrophic levels in many communities, but Birmingham largely dodged a bullet.

Missouri had at least 12 deaths in twisters.

Powerful winds in Texas and Kansas whipped up dust storms that resulted in vehicle pile-ups and a dozen deaths.

The extreme weather fanned nearly 150 deadly wildfires in Oklahoma and Texas.  Fatalities were also recorded in Arkansas, Alabama and Mississippi.

--Sinkholes in a portion of Interstate 80 forced closure of the entire highway for a section in northern New Jersey, about 25 minutes from me.  This is a huge deal for the area, I-80 a heavily trafficked roadway from New York out west to the Pennsylvania border, the Poconos, and then all the way across the country.

Three sinkholes have appeared in the same area of the roadway since December, all where at least three abandoned iron mines existed.

The highway will remain closed for two months as repairs are completed and officials test the area for more potential collapses.

--A report from the World Meteorological Organization, released this week, shows the rate of change of glaciers is the worst on record.  The largest three-year loss of glacier mass on record occurred in the past three years, the study found, with Norway, Sweden, Svalbard and the tropical Andes among the worst-affected areas.  Rather depressing.

--Astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams undocked from the International Space Station early Tuesday morning and were all set to splash down near Florida later the same day.

And exactly as planned, at 5:57 p.m. eastern time, the two along with a fellow astronaut and cosmonaut from the ISS floated down spectacularly into the Gulf in their spiffy SpaceX Dragon capsule.

Eventually, Butch and Suni, when they are physically able, will travel to the White House for a photo op with the president.  Their comments, and his, will be parsed greatly as the very future of NASA is at stake, amid Elon’s DOGE efforts to downsize government, which in this case redounds to him and SpaceX.

Astronauts are recruited in part for their PR skills, being promoters of NASA, which is always in need of funding.

---

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces...and all the fallen. 

I was furious to learn that Arlington National Cemetery had scrubbed from its website information and educational materials on black, female, and Native American service members in a pathetic DEI-related purge.  Some of the content has been restored after initial protests, but Thursday I was looking for a link to Lawrence Joel, a Medal of Honor recipient from Winston-Salem, N.C., and it was still missing.

Joel, who earned the MOH in combat in Vietnam, has his name attached to the Coliseum that Wake Forest basketball plays in.

Joel saved 13 soldiers during a Viet Cong attack north of Saigon in November 1965.  Suffering from gunshot wounds to his legs, Joel crawled through a battlefield over a 24-hour period to aid his fellow soldiers.

Joel is buried in Section 46, Grave 15-1 at Arlington.

The Defense Department spokesman who made some stupid comments on the removal (since restored) of pages on Jackie Robinson, John Ullyot, was removed from his post but he is expected to take another role within the DOD.

Slava Ukraini.

God bless America.

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Gold $3026...hit an intraday record high of 3056...
Oil $68.32...another up week, but just a buck.

Bitcoin: $83,950 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]

Returns for the week 3/17-3/21

Dow Jones  +1.2%  [41985]
S&P 500  +0.5%  [5667]
S&P MidCap  +0.6%
Russell 2000  +0.6%
Nasdaq  +0.2% [17784]

Returns for the period 1/1/25-3/21/25

Dow Jones  -1.3%
S&P 500  -3.6%
S&P MidCap  -5.6%
Russell 2000  -7.8%
Nasdaq  -7.9%

Bulls 28.3
Bears 31.7

Hang in there.

Brian Trumbore

 

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