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02/15/2025
For the week 2/10-2/14
[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]
Note: StocksandNews has significant ongoing costs and your support is greatly appreciated. Please click on the gofundme link or send a check to PO Box 990, New Providence, NJ 07974.
***This week marks 26 years! I have taken two weeks off. Really. Whether I was in Moscow, or Beirut, or even Paraguay, I got this column done. To all those who have supported me over the years, thank you. To the rest, please consider doing so.
Edition 1,347
This was not a good week for Ukraine (or U.S. government workers, for that matter). In his first major speech overseas, Wednesday, new Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth conceded that there will be no NATO membership for Ukraine, that returning to the pre-2014 borders wasn’t in the cards, and in securing a truce, there would be no U.S. troops.
It was pathetic, and as Republican Senator Roger Wicker, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee and a staunch supporter of Ukraine, said in an interview with Politico on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference:
“I don’t know who wrote the speech – it is the kind of thing Tucker Carlson could have written, and Carlson is a fool.”
Wicker added: “Everybody knows...and people in the administration know you don’t say before your first meeting what you will agree to and what you won’t agree to,” adding that he was “puzzled” and “disturbed” by Hegseth’s comments.
John Bolton, former ambassador and national security advisor in the first Trump administration, posted on X:
“It is unconscionable to allow Russia to assault Ukraine’s sovereignty, recruit enemies like North Korea to aid in their fight, and then sell out the Ukrainians by conceding the loss of their territory and NATO security guarantees or membership. By making these and other concessions before negotiations even started, Trump has effectively surrendered to Putin on Ukraine. [Emphasis mine]
“I warned many times that Trump will favor Russia in negotiations between Zelensky and Putin. Russia’s military performance has been miserable, but Trump is vindicating Putin’s decision to invade. The harm to U.S. security interests will extend well beyond Central Europe, as our adversaries in the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific can plainly see.”
Hegseth then attempted to walk back some of the comments on Thursday, but President Trump said he liked what Hegseth said originally.
I get into the president’s phone calls with Vladimir Putin, and then Zelensky, and the aftermath in detail below, but it wasn’t a great sign for Ukraine when Trump said of that country, and Zelensky, “that was not a good war to get into,” seeming to forget who invaded who.
As the Wall Street Journal editorial board opined:
“President Trump has begun his promised effort to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, and the initial signs are discouraging. He’s making concessions to Vladimir Putin without anything in return, and he’s informing Ukraine after the fact. Does Mr. Trump want to negotiate peace with honor that will last, or peace through weakness that will reward the Kremlin?”
---
In an extraordinary appearance in the Oval Office with President Trump on Tuesday, Elon Musk, joined by his 4-year-old son, X, called the federal bureaucracy an “unelected, fourth, unconstitutional branch of government” that must be held accountable. Musk said the “bureaucracy needs to be responsive to the people.”
“The people voted for major government reform and that’s what the people are going to get,” Musk said, responding to detractors who call his Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE) involvement a hostile takeover. “That’s what democracy is all about.” This coming from a South African.
“We’ve already found billions of dollars of abuse, incompetence and corruption,” Trump said of DOGE’s efforts, which both Trump and Musk repeatedly called “fraud.”
Musk did correctly say the interest on national debt was greater than spending on defense.
But Musk made many claims, such as that “quite a few people” in the bureaucracy somehow had “managed to accrue tens of millions of dollars in net worth while they are in that position,” without explaining how he had made that assessment. He later claimed that some recipients of Social Security checks were as old as 150.
“We are actually trying to be as transparent as possible,” Musk said, referring to postings by his team on X. “So all of our actions are maximally transparent.”
But the ‘team’ didn’t start posting anything until literally the last few days. Musk continued, “I don’t know of a case where an organization has been more transparent than the DOGE organization.”
Musk is deploying relatively inexperienced – largely unvetted – individuals, some with shaky backgrounds (see below), yet unprecedented visibility into the workings of government. Musk prioritized the hiring of software engineers for DOGE.
And its DOGE, not Congress, that decides what programs are best.
Trump talked about people inside government getting kickbacks, which was rich, coming from a guy who has gained billions in contracts for his sons and son-in-law.
Musk said, “Some of the things I say will be incorrect...and if they are, they should be corrected.”
This was amazing, coming from the “king of disinformation.” Once he posts a false statement, such as the Gaza condom claim, or reposts the blatant lies of others, to his 215 million followers, he’s not correcting it. It’s outrageous.
Regarding his myriads of conflicts of interest, Musk said, “All actions are fully public,” adding that observers won’t hesitate about flagging conflicts. Give me a break.
After reporters left the room, President Trump signed an executive order directing agencies to work with DOGE.
The agencies will be permitted to hire no more than one employee for every four workers leaving the government, the document said. Exceptions will be made for law enforcement, national security, immigration and public safety roles. It’s unclear if DOGE – an office within the White House – has the authority to enact mass dismissals.
Trump, in criticizing federal judges that have blocked several of his actions, did say he would “abide by the courts.” We’ll see.
---
Trump, Elon, continued....
As an extensive Washington Post report over the weekend best summed it up:
“Billionaire Elon Musk’s blitzkrieg on Washington has brought into focus his vision for a dramatically smaller and weaker government, as he and a coterie of aides move to control, automate – and substantially diminish – hundreds if not thousands of public functions....
“The DOGE campaign has generated chaos on a near-hourly basis across the nation’s capital. But it appears carefully choreographed in service of a broader agenda to gut the civilian workforce, assert power over the vast federal bureaucracy and shrink it to levels unseen in at least 20 years. The aim is a diminished government that exerts less oversight over private business, delivers fewer services and comprises a smaller share of the U.S. economy – but is far more responsive to the directives of the president....
“(While) resistance to Musk has emerged in the federal courts, among federal employee unions and in pockets of Congress, allies say his critics underestimate the billionaire’s talent for ripping apart and transforming institutions – as has been proved in the scant time since Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration.
“ ‘Chaos is often the birthplace of new orders, new systems and new paradigms. Washington doesn’t know how to deal with people who refuse to play the game by their rules,’ said investor Shervin Pishevar, a longtime friend of Musk’s. ‘Donald Trump and Elon Musk are two different storms backed by a majority of Americans – one political, one technological. But both are tearing through the same rotting structure.’....
“If Musk is successful, the federal workforce will be cut by at least 10 percent. A mass bid for voluntary resignations – blocked by a federal judge in Massachusetts who has scheduled a Monday hearing – is expected to be the first step before mass involuntary dismissals. Those are likely to include new hires or people with poor performance reviews, according to a plan laid out in memos issued over the last week by the Office of Personnel Management, which is now under Musk’s control. Unions this week advised workers to download their performance reviews and personnel files in preparation for having the information used against them.
“As much as half the government’s nonmilitary real estate holdings are set to be liquidated, a move aimed at closing offices and increasing commute times amid sharp new limits on remote and telework. That is intended to depress workforce morale and increase attrition, according to four officials with knowledge of internal conversations at the General Services Administration, another agency taken over by Musk.
“ ‘We’ve heard from them that they want to make the buildings so crappy that people will leave,’ said one senior official at GSA, which manages most federal property. ‘I think that’s the larger goal here, which is to bring everybody back, the buildings are going to suck, their commutes are going to suck.’
“To replace the existing civil service, Musk’s allies are looking to technology. DOGE associates have been feeding vast troves of government records and databases into artificial intelligence tools, looking for unwanted federal programs and trying to determine which human work can be replaced by AI, machine-learning tools or even robots....
“ ‘The end goal is replacing the human workforce with machines,’ said a U.S. official closely watching DOGE activity. ‘Everything that can be machine-automated will be. And the technocrats will replace the bureaucrats.’” [Emphasis mine.]
--President Trump, speaking to reporters on Air Force One Sunday, said he planned on announcing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the United States Monday.
Trump also said he planned to hold a separate news conference Tuesday or Wednesday to announce massive new reciprocal tariffs, which could match other countries’ tariffs on U.S. goods dollar-for-dollar.
“Very simply, it’s if they charge us, we charge them,” Trump said.
It wasn’t clear if the new steel and aluminum tariffs will be on top of the tariffs already in place on exports from countries like China.
Last week, Trump imposed a10% tariff on all Chinese goods imported into the United States on top of all existing tariffs already in place on China. After those tariffs went into effect Tuesday, China quickly retaliated by placing tariffs on some chips and metals and began investigating Google and the maker of the Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger brands.
But Trump began dialing back those tariffs, such as pausing taxes on any goods worth $800 or less imported into the United States until the Commerce Department can develop a system for imposing those hard-to-track items. Trump paused the 25% across-the-board tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports until at least March 1.
Canada and Mexico are the largest and third largest exporters of steel to the United States, respectively. Canada now accounts for nearly a quarter of steel imported by American businesses by weight, while Mexico accounts for about 12%, according to data provided by the American Iron and Steel Institute, an industry trade group.
The U.S. also gets about two-thirds of its primary aluminum from Canada, according to the Aluminum Association.
Trump then formally announced the tariffs on Monday afternoon.
“It’s a big deal. This is the beginning of making America rich again,” Trump said in the Oval Office. “No exceptions, no nothing.”
“It’s going to mean a lot of businesses are going to be opening in the United States,” Trump said.
The tariffs take effect March 4.
“Steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada, the United States’ closest ally, would be totally unjustified,” Francois-Philippe Champagne, Canada’s minister of Innovation, Science and Industry, said in a statement Monday night. “Canadian steel and aluminum support key industries in the U.S. from defense, shipbuilding, energy to automotive.”
Tuesday, European Union chief Ursula von der Leyen vowed that U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum “will not go unanswered,” adding that they will trigger tough countermeasures from the 27-nation bloc.
“The EU will act to safeguard its economic interests,” von der Leyen said in a statement in reaction to President Trump’s imposition of the tariffs.
“Tariffs are taxes – bad for business, worse for consumers,” von der Leyen said. “Unjustified tariffs on the EU will not go unanswered – they will trigger firm and proportionate countermeasures.”
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told parliament that “if the U.S. leaves us no other choice, then the European Union will react united,” adding that “ultimately, trade wars always cost both sides prosperity.”
Editorial / Wall Street Journal
“President Trump gave the economy another jolt of uncertainty on Monday when he signed executive orders imposing 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports. His advisers say these tariffs are economically ‘strategic’ rather than a bargaining chip for some other goals. Is the strategy to harm U.S. manufacturers and workers?
“That’s what his first-term tariffs did, and it’s worth revisiting the damage of that blunder as he threatens to repeat it. In March 2018, Mr. Trump announced 25% tariffs on steel and 10% on aluminum under the pretext of protecting national security. Then, as now, most U.S. metal imports came from allies including Canada, Mexico, Europe, South Korea and Japan.
“Mr. Trump said tariffs were needed to boost domestic steel and aluminum production. But U.S. production was already increasing amid a surge in capital investment unleashed by his deregulation and 2017 tax reform. U.S. steel capacity utilization climbed to 78.5% in March 2018 from 72.4% in December 2016.
“The real goal of U.S. steel and aluminum companies that wanted the tariffs was to boost their bottom lines. Raising prices on foreign imports allowed them to charge more. The price was paid by U.S. secondary metal producers and downstream manufactures....
“The tariffs also made U.S. manufacturers less globally competitive and prompted retaliation that hurt American businesses. Canada imposed tariffs on $12.8 billion in U.S. products, including 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum....
“Retaliation caused Mr. Trump to exempt Canada and Mexico as part of the renegotiated Nafta deal. His Administration also struck deals with some countries that exempted a certain amount of their steel and aluminum exports.
“Even so, the tariffs created uncertainty for U.S. manufacturers and boomeranged on steel and aluminum companies. Employment in durable goods manufacturing began to decline in early 2019, which reduced demand for steel and aluminum. Employment in fabricated metals manufacturing that used steel and aluminum plunged and is still some 35,000 lower than when the tariffs took effect.
“U.S. steel and aluminum firms enjoyed a surge in post-pandemic investment and consumer spending, and profits rolled in. But demand for the metals fell again as U.S. manufacturing struggled amid President Biden’s regulatory onslaught and higher interest rates. Domestic steel-making capacity utilization has fallen back to 70%, about the same as in 2016.
“Which is why U.S. steel and aluminum producers now want tariffs with no exemptions. They blame imports for reducing prices. But steel prices are about 50% higher than pre-pandemic levels and aluminum prices a third higher. Cleveland-Cliffs shares rose 17.9% Monday, and other steel makers by 5% or so in expectation of windfall tariff profits.
“This is political rent-seeking at its most brazen, and it benefits the few at the expense of the many. None of this matters to Mr. Trump, whose dogmatic views on tariffs can’t be turned by evidence. But we thought our readers would like to know the rest of the story.”
Thursday, Trump signed a memo on reciprocal trade, directing federal agencies to study how to adjust U.S. tariff rates to match existing duties and certain economic barriers enforced by other nations. But no action is imminent. Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick said the studies should be completed by April 1.
When it happens, it happens.
--President Trump insists he trusts Elon Musk to overhaul the federal government and expressed awe at the tech titan’s work ethic while reaffirming his next targets – the Education Department and Pentagon.
“I ran on this,” Trump told Fox News’ Bret Baier in his Super Bowl interview. “I’ve had a great help with Elon Musk, he’s been terrific.”
Baier pressed Trump on whether he trusted Musk.
“Trust Elon? Oh, he’s not gaining anything, In fact, how he can devote the time to it? He’s so into it.”
The president reaffirmed that he has two big assignments for Musk to take on next.
“I’m going to tell him very soon, like maybe in 24 hours, to go check the Department of Education; he’s going to find the same thing,” Trump said, referring to financial waste. “Then I’m going [to tell him] go to the military – let’s check the military. We’re going to find billions, hundreds of billions, of dollars of waste, fraud and abuse.”
“People elected me on that,” the president said.
Some of Musk’s efforts have faced setbacks in the courts. On Saturday, a New York-based judge temporarily blocked DOGE’s access to the Treasury Department’s payment systems that manage trillions of dollars’ worth of federal outlays.
Last Friday, a Washington, D.C., judge also halted plans to place 2,200 employees at USAID on administrative leave.
But National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, speaking about the USAID, told NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday, “The dollars aren’t being used wisely.
“We need to take a hard look at it. We need to move quickly. And that’s exactly what’s being done,” he said.
“We need to realign their mission and line it up with the president’s foreign policy vision.”
--About 75,000 federal employees signed up for a voluntary resignation program inspired by Elon Musk – falling short of the numbers the White House hoped for and increasing the likelihood of deeper mass firings.
The total makes up about 3% of the 2.4 million civilian federal workforce. The administration’s goal was 5% to 10%.
The deferred resignation plan allows workers to leave work in February but stay on the federal payroll through the end of September. It closed Wednesday night shortly after a federal judge in Boston lifted his order freezing the program.
The administration had repeatedly warned workers that the so-called “buyout” offer could be their best chance.
Thursday, the administration moved swiftly to fire thousands of workers and directed agency heads to terminate most trial and probationary staff – a move that could affect as many as 200,000 employees, according to reports.
Everett Kelley, president of the American Federation of Government Employees, the largest union representing federal workers, said in a statement his union would “fight these firings every step of the way,” including by pursuing “every legal challenge available.”
The Department of Veterans Affairs said it had let go of more than 1,000 employees who were in their probationary period, while the U.S. Forest Service was set to fire more than 3,000.
The federal workforce grew 6.3% under former President Joe Biden, fueled by pandemic spending programs. A 3% cut to the federal workforce would only bring the number down to 2023 levels.
In an executive order signed Tuesday, with Musk standing alongside him, Trump ordered agency heads to “promptly undertake preparations to initiate large-scale reductions in force.”
--In an appearance by video to the World Governments Summit in Dubai, Elon Musk said the United States needed to “delete entire agencies” from the federal government as part of his push under President Trump to radically cut spending and restructure its priorities.
“We really have here rule of the bureaucracy as opposed to rule of the people – democracy,” Musk said, wearing a black T-shirt that read: “Tech Support.” He also joked that he was the “White House’s tech support,” borrowing from his profile on X.
“I think we do need to delete entire agencies as opposed to leave a lot of them behind,” Musk said. “If we don’t remove the roots of the weed, then it’s easy for the weed to grow back.”
--Vice President JD Vance declared on Sunday that “judges aren’t allowed to control the executive’s legitimate power,” delivering a warning shot to the federal judiciary in the face of court rulings that have, for now, stymied aspects of President Trump’s agenda.
--Robert E. Rubin, Lawrence H. Summers, Timothy F. Geithner, Jacob J. Lew and Janet L. Yellen / New York Times
“When we had the honor of being sworn in as the 70th, 71st, 75th, 76th and 78th secretaries of the Treasury, we took an oath to support and defend the United States Constitution....
“(Our) most fundamental responsibility was the faithful execution of the laws and Constitution of the United States.
“We were fortunate that during our tenures in office no effort was made to unlawfully undermine the nation’s financial commitments. Regrettably, recent reporting gives substantial cause for concern that such efforts are underway today.
“The nation’s payment system has historically been operated by a very small group of nonpartisan career civil servants. In recent days, that norm has been upended, and the roles of these nonpartisan officials have been compromised by political actors from the so-called Department of Government Efficiency. One has been appointed fiscal assistant secretary – a post that for the prior eight decades had been reserved exclusively for civil servants to ensure impartiality and public confidence in the handling and payment of federal funds.
“These political actors have not been subject to the same rigorous ethics rules as civil servants, and one has explicitly retained his role in a private company, creating at best the appearance of financial conflicts of interest. They lack training and experience to handle private, personal data – like Social Security numbers and bank account information. Their power subjects America’s payments system and the highly sensitive data within it to the risk of failure if the code that underwrites it is not handled with due care. That is why a federal judge this past weekend blocked, at least temporarily, these individuals from the Treasury’s payments system, noting the risk of ‘irreparable harm.’
“While significant data privacy, cybersecurity and national security threats are gravely concerning, the constitutional issues are perhaps even more alarming....
“A key component of the rule of law is the executive branch’s commitment to respect Congress’ power of the purse: The legislative branch has the sole authority to pass laws that determine where and how federal dollars should be spent....
“As Justice Brett Kavanaugh of the Supreme Court previously wrote, ‘Even the president does not have unilateral authority to refuse to spend the funds.’ Chief Justice John Roberts agrees: He wrote that ‘no area seems more clearly the province of Congress than the power of the purse.’
“During our collective 18 years at the helm of the Treasury, we never were asked to stop congressionally appropriated funds from being paid out in full....
“The Trump administration may seek to change the law and alter what spending Congress appropriates, as administrations before it have done as well. And should the law change, it will be the role of the executive branch to execute those changes. But it is not for the Treasury Department or the administration to decide which of our congressionally approved commitments to fulfill and which to cast aside....
“Many people and entities depend on Treasury’s faithful disbursement of federal funds: Social Security checks arrive each month. Veterans receive their benefits. Medicare providers are reimbursed. Federal workers, members of the military and businesses that provide goods and services to the government are all paid on time and in full. Holders of outstanding federal debt receive interest payments.
“People often rely on these funds for survival, making any risk of their cutoff or delay existential. But even more than the importance of making good on particular commitments is the importance of making good on the principles that this country stands for. We have during our service in the Treasury Department faced moments of crisis, when the specter of an American default loomed. Any hint of the selective suspension of congressionally authorized payments will be a breach of trust and ultimately, a form of default. And our credibility, once lost, will prove difficult to regain.”
--Vittoria Elliott and Leah Feiger / WIRED
“Members of Elon Musk’s (DOGE) team have had access to the U.S. Treasury Department’s payment systems for over a week. On Thursday, the threat intelligence team at one of the department’s agencies recommended that DOGE members be monitored as an ‘insider threat.’
“Sources say members of the Bureau of the Fiscal Service’s IT division and others received an email detailing these concerns.
“ ‘There is ongoing litigation, congressional legislation, and widespread protests relating to DOGE’s access to Treasury and the Bureau of the Fiscal Service,’ reads a section of the email titled ‘Recommendations,’ reviewed by WIRED. ‘If DOGE members have any access to payment systems, we recommend suspending that access immediately and conducting a comprehensive review of all actions they may have taken on these systems.’
“Although Treasury and White House officials have repeatedly denied it, WIRED has reported that DOGE technologists had the ability to not only read the code of sensitive payments systems but also rewrite it. Marko Elez, one of a number of young men identified by WIRED who have little to no government experience but are associated with DOGE, was granted read and write privileges on two of the most sensitive systems in the U.S. government: the Payment Automation Manager and Secure Payment System at the BFS, an agency that according to Treasury records paid out $5.45 trillion in fiscal year 2024.
“ ‘There is reporting at other federal agencies indicating that DOGE members have performed unauthorized changes and locked civil servants out of the sensitive systems they gained access to,’ the ‘Recommendations’ portion of the email continues. ‘We further recommend that DOGE members be placed under insider threat monitoring and alerting after their access to payment systems is revoked. Continued access to any payment systems by DOGE members, even ‘read only,’ likely poses the single greatest insider threat risk the Bureau of the Fiscal Service has ever faced.’”
--Russell Vought, the acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, ordered staffers at the agency to stop all work in an email Saturday night. The administration cut off the funding and shut down the headquarters.
The agency “will not be taking its next draw of unappropriated funding because it is not ‘reasonably necessary’ to carry out its duties,” Vought wrote.
The CFPB, among other things, would have overseen Elon Musk’s efforts to initiate a new payment platform on X.
--Musk rehired the DOGE staffer with a history of racist tweets, the above-mentioned Marko Elez, and then Musk threatened the Wall Street Journal reporter who broke that story about Elez’ since-deleted social media account, saying she “should be fired immediately.” Musk also said of the reporter in one of his posts, “She’s a disgusting and cruel person.”
Remember, Elon is the guy who peddles racist and antisemitic views, and he’s endorsing the neo-Nazi political party Alternative for Germany (AfD) in that country’s upcoming election.
Another young DOGE worker, 19-year-old Edward Coristine, Bloomberg News reported, had been fired from an internship at a cybersecurity firm after being accused of leaking confidential information.
Coristine, who is known online as “Big Balls,” has taken on new roles as a senior adviser at the State Department and at the Department of Homeland Security, raising concerns among some diplomats and others about his potential access to sensitive information and the growing reach of his tech billionaire boss into America’s diplomatic apparatus, said U.S. officials familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.
Coristine’s new perch, the State Department’s Bureau of Diplomatic Technology, a critical hub for data both sensitive and nonsensitive, could give him visibility into far more than just tech. It’s dangerous.
Reuters reported another member of Musk’s Boys Club, Gavin Kliger, graduated in 2020 from Cal Berkeley, according to his LinkedIn profile, but in social media posts between October 2024 and January, Kliger has voiced controversial views and reposted content from white supremacist Nick Fuentes and others of his ilk, including British-American kickboxer Andrew Tate, who is being investigated by Romanian prosecutors for human trafficking, trafficking in minors, sexual intercourse with a minor and money laundering and has since founded a nativist British political party. Tate has denied wrongdoing.
We then learned Thursday that Kliger arrived at the IRS.
--Ali Swenson and Chris Megerian / Associated Press
“The emergence of X owner Elon Musk as the most influential figure around President Donald Trump has created an extraordinary dynamic – a White House adviser who’s using one of the world’s most powerful information platforms to sell the government’s talking points while intimidating its detractors.
“In recent days, Musk has used X to promote Trump’s positions to his 215 million followers, attack an agency he’s trying to shut down as ‘evil’ and claim a Treasury employee who resigned under pressure over payment system access committed a crime....
“(For) the world’s richest man to single-handedly control the levers of one of the most influential online communication channels while holding an office in the White House complex is ‘unthinkable’ in our current system of government, said Steven Levitsky, a political scientist at Harvard University and the author of ‘How Democracies Die.’
“ ‘This is a combination of economic, media and political power that I believe has never been seen before in any democracy on Earth,’ he said.....
“More recently, Musk has taken to X to advance DOGE’s efforts to shut down the U.S. Agency for International Development, or USAID, posting Sunday to label the agency as ‘evil’ and a ‘criminal organization.’
“Musk also has used the platform to insinuate that others may have committed crimes....
“The day after the Treasury Department’s acting deputy secretary, David Lebryk, resigned under pressure over payment system access, Musk posted that Lebryk had committed ‘crime on a scale that makes the mafia look like preschoolers stealing cookies.’ It’s unclear what law, if any, could have been broken....
“Steven Livingston, the founding director of the Institute for Data, Democracy & Politics at George Washington University, said Musk’s role shows how American democracy is already faltering.
“ ‘It’s bending to the will and the whim of a billionaire and not to Congress,’ he said. ‘Where does X and Elon Musk end and the government begin? I’m not sure where that line is anymore.’”
Separately, President Trump has been dismantling the federal government’s public integrity guardrails that he frequently tested in his first term but now wants to remove entirely.
“The end goal is to avoid accountability this time,” said Princeton University presidential historian Julian Zelizer. “Not just being protected by his party and counting on the public to move on when scandals or problems emerge, but this time by actually removing many of the key figures whose job it is to oversee” his administration.
--President Trump insisted he’d like to annex at least one sovereign country during his second term, and it’s starting to look like he prefers America’s ally Canada.
In his interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier, prerecorded ahead of the Super Bowl, Baier asked if Trump’s desire for Canada to become the 51st state of the U.S. is “a real thing,” as Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reportedly told a private meeting of business professionals last week. The president replied, “Yeah, it is. I think Canada would be much better off being a 51st state because we lose $250 billion a year with Canada and I’m not gonna let that happen,” he said. “It’s too much. Why are we paying $200 billion a year, essentially, in subsidies to Canada? Now if they’re a 51st state, I don’t mind doing it,” he said.
The U.S. trade deficit was $63 billion, not $250bn, with Canada last year, having just checked the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ release from last week. [Page 31 of 58, if you want to do the exercise yourself.] And that doesn’t include ‘services,’ which reduces the deficit to about $41 billion.
Trump again repeated this falsehood Thursday, while calling Prime Minister Trudeau “governor.”
--The White House fired the inspector general for the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) on Tuesday. The move came a day after the watchdog’s office warned that the administration’s dismantling of the agency had made it all but impossible to monitor $8.2 billion in humanitarian funds.
The administration’s dismantling of the USAID is stiffing American businesses on hundreds of millions of dollars in unpaid bills for work that has already been done, according to a lawsuit filed Tuesday. And many of America’s farmers are getting royally screwed.
--The Trump administration looks set to buy $400 million worth of armored vehicles from Tesla. According to multiple media accounts, “After reports circulated Wednesday night of the State Department’s intent to purchase Tesla vehicles, the document was edited at 9:12 p.m., and now says the federal contract is for $400 million worth of ‘armored electric vehicles,’ but the word ‘Tesla’ was removed.” [NPR]
Yes, Elon Musk runs six companies, some of which are under investigation by government authorities, and Musk’s Boys have gained access to nearly two dozen federal agencies that could become involved in investigations, if they aren’t already. And as you see an example of above, Musk’s companies, including Tesla and SpaceX, have multi-billion-dollar contracts with the federal government.
--In his pre-Super Bowl interview, taped Saturday with Fox News’ Bret Baier, President Trump made one rather scary statement.
“We owe $36 trillion. That’s because we let all these nations take advantage of us,” seeming to confuse the national debt with the trade deficit.
---
Wall Street and the Economy
We had major inflation news this week and it wasn’t good. Consumer prices for January were higher than expected, 0.5%, 3.0% year-over-year, with core (ex-food and energy) up 0.4%, and 3.3% from a year ago. All four figures were higher than consensus.
Headline, 3.0%, and core, 3.3%, is nowhere near the Fed’s target of 2%, so the Federal Reserve and the Open Market Committee will remain on hold for some time to come, this is much is certain.
Egg prices, which every American is focusing on these days, have increased 15% over the past year, the largest increase since June 2015.
Tuesday, at an appearance before the Senate Banking Committee, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said: “We’re in a pretty good place with this economy. We want to make more progress on inflation. And we think our policy rate is in a good place, and we don’t see any reason to be in a hurry to reduce it further.”
There is seasonality in the numbers, as businesses often choose January to raise prices.
President Trump, prior to the release of the CPI data, posted on Truth Social: “Interest Rates should be lowered, something which would go hand in hand with upcoming Tariffs!!! Lets Rock and Roll, America!!!”
The yield on the 10-year took the CPI data and rose... That was Wednesday....
Thursday, we had the producer price figures for last month, and they, too, were higher than expected...0.4%, 3.5% year-over-year on headline, and 0.3%, 3.6% on core.
Friday, we had retail sales data for January, a far worse than expected -0.9%, ditto ex-autos, -0.4%. January industrial production rose a better than forecast 0.5%.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for the first quarter is down to 2.3%.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.87%.
Meanwhile, Congress needs to come up with a budget and House Speaker Mike Johnson admitted Sunday that the chamber’s GOPers may face yet another delay in drafting President Trump’s “one big beautiful” bill on everything from tax reform to the border.
Last week, Senate Budget Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) rolled out a plan to effectively leapfrog the House and take the lead on the bill, but Johnson (R-La.) cautioned that doing so risks dooming the process.
“At the end of the day, the House has to drive this process, and we will,” Johnson told “Fox News Sunday.”
The Speaker was alluding to the fact that if the bill is to stay intact as opposed to becoming piecemeal legislation, it must go through the House first since major tax changes are required under the Constitution to originate in the lower chamber prior to getting taken up in the Senate.
Johnson insists the one-bill strategy is the only way to successfully deliver on all of Trump’s campaign promises. “We will get it done,” he said.
The House and Senate need to agree on a budget resolution to kick off the reconciliation process that will be needed to pass Trump’s agenda by sidestepping a Democratic filibuster.
House Republicans on Wednesday then released a plan that sets the stage for advancing many of Trump’s top domestic priorities, providing for up to $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and a $4 trillion increase in the debt limit so the U.S. can continue financing its bills.
The budget plan also directs a variety of House committees to cut spending by at least $1.5 trillion while stating that the goal is to reduce spending by $2 trillion over 10 years.
This is the first step in a lengthy legislative process that would allow Republicans to pass some of their top priorities in a simple majority vote.
I want it to be clear...I want to reduce the size of government as much as anyone. But I wrote last week, a hiring freeze for two years reduces the number of federal employees by 10-12 percent. That’s a fact. And zero chaos. Disruption for disruption’s sake is idiotic.
And I think what you see above in the House plan, while it’s lacking in detail, that’s how you do it. Tell various departments you need to cut costs “X” and they have to find a responsible way to get it done. And it is lawful.
I just don’t want unvetted kids with questionable ethics rummaging through everyone’s personal data!!! [Had to add three exclamation points, because that’s how Trump would do it, he typed with a smile.]
Europe and Asia
Eurostat released a flash estimate of fourth-quarter GDP in the eurozone, 0.1% compared with the previous quarter, and up 0.9% from Q4 2023. The latter figure compares with 2.5% in the United States.
Q4 2024 vs. Q4 2023
Germany -0.2%, France 0.7%, Italy 0.5%, Spain 3.5%, Netherlands 1.8%.
December industrial production in the euro area fell 1.1% over November, down 1.7% from a year ago.
Turning to Asia...China reported its January inflation data, consumer prices up 0.5% annualized vs. 0.1% prior. Producer prices fell 2.3% Y/Y.
Japan’s producer prices for January rose 0.3% over December, and 4.2% year-over-year.
Street Bytes
--The major averages finished up on the week, the Dow Jones gaining 0.6% to 44546, the S&P 500 up 1.5% to just shy of a new all-time high, and Nasdaq 2.6%, also a bit shy of a record. Tariff uncertainty continues to be a non-issue, thus far, for equities.
Meta’s (Facebook’s) winning streak hit a staggering 20 today...which is a record for a Nasdaq 100 stock. It’s up already about 25% this year!
--U.S. Treasury Yields
6-mo. 4.35% 2-yr. 4.26% 10-yr. 4.48% 30-yr. 4.70%
After the yield on the 10-year rose to 4.63% on Wednesday’s CPI news, by week’s end, the yield was down to 4.48%, essentially unchanged from last Friday, today’s weak retail sales figure fueling the rally.
--Crude oil finished the week down a bit, but was up until today as traders remained cautious amid escalating trade tensions and broader economic uncertainty. Trump’s recent steel and aluminum tariffs could disrupt U.S. oil drilling, which relies on specialty steel not produced domestically. And you have concerns over Russian and Iranian oil supply due to sanctions.
Russian data showed oil production in January slipped further below the nation’s OPEC+ quota, falling to 8.962 million barrels a day last month, according to Bloomberg’s reporting.
Russia has vowed to reduce crude output by 971,000 barrels a day from a baseline of 9.949 million barrels a day.
--Chevron Corp. plans to cut its global workforce by 15% to 20% by next year, as part of efforts to reduce costs and raise profits.
The oil giant employed 46,500 people globally at the end of 2023, meaning the cuts could affect as many as 9,000 employees. The company recently moved its headquarters from San Ramon, California, to Houston, Texas, and is targeting $2 billion to $3 billion of structural cost reductions by 2026.
Exxon Mobil has cut its global workforce by 17% since 2019 even as production boomed, helping its stock outperform Chevron’s over the past three years.
--Speaking of tariffs on steel imports, they could wreak havoc on auto manufacturing in the U.S., including the impact on domestic auto companies including Ford, GM and Stellantis – making the vehicles more expensive.
The basic rules of supply and demand could drive up costs.
“Steel producers have to find ways to increase capacity, and aluminum and steel might be in short supply in the short term,” said Sam Fiorani, an analyst at Auto Forecast Solutions, which studies the industry. “Producing vehicles has a lot of moving parts, and raising the price of what is among the most important components of the vehicle is only going to raise the price of an already expensive product.”
--A consortium of investors led by Elon Musk is offering $97.4 billion to buy the nonprofit that controls OpenAI, upping the stakes in his battle with Sam Altman over the company behind ChatGPT.
Musk’s attorney, Marc Toberoff, said he submitted the bid to OpenAI’s board of directors Monday.
The unsolicited offer adds a major complication to Altman’s carefully laid plans for OpenAI’s future, including converting it to a for-profit company and spending up to $500 billion on AI infrastructure through a joint venture called Stargate. Altman and Musk are already fighting in court over the direction of OpenAI.
“It’s time for OpenAI to return to the open-source, safety-focused force for good it once was,” Musk said in a statement provided by Toberoff. “We will make sure that happens.”
Altman and Musk co-founded OpenAI in 2015 as a charity. In 2019, after Musk left the company and Altman became chief executive, OpenAI created a for-profit subsidiary that has served as a vehicle for it to raise money from Microsoft and other investors. Altman is in the process of turning the subsidiary into a traditional company and spinning out the nonprofit.
The bid is being backed by Musk’s own artificial intelligence company xAI, which could merge with OpenAI following a deal.
Musk has filed a series of legal complaints accusing OpenAI of betraying its original nonprofit mission by creating a for-profit arm and colluding with Microsoft in a bid to dominate the development of AI. But that’s what Musk wants to do with his own xAI.
Separately, OpenAI is in talks to raise up to $40 billion in a new funding round that would value the company as high as $300 billion. It currently has a $157 billion valuation. The Wall Street Journal reported recently that Japanese conglomerate SoftBank would lead the round and is in discussions to invest between $15 billion and $25 billion.
OpenAI and SoftBank are also trying to raise billions for Stargate, which could be mucked up due to uncertainty about the company’s future sparked by Musk’s bid.
Altman responded to Musk’s offer by writing on X, “No thank you but we will buy Twitter for $9.74 billion if you want.” Musk bought X in 2022 for $44 billion.
Musk replied to Altman’s post with one word: “Swindler.”
OpenAI has repeatedly blasted Musk’s claims in the lawsuit as baseless and accused him of waging an “increasingly blusterous campaign to harass OpenAI for his own competitive advantage.”
Days later Musk said he would withdraw his bid for the nonprofit that controls OpenAI if the board stopped its conversion to a for-profit company.
--Apple and Google restored the TikTok app to their mobile app stares Thursday night, weeks after removing it to comply with a U.S. law requiring TikTok’s Chinese parent, ByteDance, to sell it or shut it down.
The two decided to restore the app after a letter from Attorney General Pam Bondi. President Trump is trying to arrange a deal to keep TikTok alive in the U.S.
--TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2024
2/13...146 percent of 2024 levels...Presidents’ Day holiday travel....
2/12...87
2/11...80
2/10...123
2/9...92
2/8...79
2/7...124
2/6...130
--BYD Co. opened a new front in China’s electric vehicle price war – adding advanced driver-assistance features across most of its lineup for no extra cost and sending its shares to a record.
At an event in Shenzhen, BYD said it will make its God’s Eye driver-assistance system standard in vehicles priced from 100,000 yuan ($13,700) and include it in several lower-cost models such as the popular Seagull hatchback.
Vehicles with similar features from rivals typically sell for 150,000 yuan.
“This is basically a non-price-cut price cut disguised as a smart-feature update on almost all BYD branded vehicles,” independent China auto analyst Lei Xing told Bloomberg.
The advanced driving features will help BYD widen the gap over Tesla and domestic rivals such as Xpeng Inc. and smartphone giant Xiaomi Corp., which haven’t been able to make such technology available on lower-cost vehicles.
--Honda Motor and Nissan Motor formally ended negotiations to combine, bringing to a swift end a partnership that in theory would have created one of the world’s biggest automakers.
Although plans to unite both brands under a holding company are dead, the two said Thursday that they will continue their strategic partnership with Mitsubishi Motors Corp. and collaborate on the in-house development of batteries, autonomous driving, software and electric vehicle technology.
The consequences of a failed tie-up are likely to be pivotal for all three but especially Nissan, considering the battered automaker will now have to look elsewhere for a lifeline to salvage its weak financial position. Honda, on the other hand, at least kept its annual profit guidance steady after third-quarter results that largely met expectations.
--Deere & Co. shares fell after the company reported better-than-expected earnings and maintained guidance. Investors appeared to be nervous over sales.
Deere reported fiscal first-quarter earnings of $3.19 per share from equipment sales of $6.8 billion. The Street, though, was looking for $3.11 and $7.7 billion, respectively. A year ago, Deere reported a profit of $6.23 a share from sales of $10.5 billion.
Earnings guidance from November was maintained, in line with the Street’s thinking, $5 billion and $5.5 billion.
Deere still expects large equipment sales – think big tractors and combines – to decline by 30% in the U.S. in fiscal 2025.
Large ag equipment accounted for about 45% of total first-quarter equipment sales. The outlook didn’t contemplate the impact of any of President Trump’s tariffs.
It has been tough for farmers these days. Net farm income in the U.S. was about $163 billion in 2024, down from $165 billion in 2023 and down from a record $228 billion in 2022, according to the USDA. Lower farm income translates to less money to spend on tractors and combines.
But the USDA does project income to rebound to $194 billion in 2025.
--Hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin on Tuesday called aggressive trade talk from the new administration a “huge mistake,” producing chaos that in Griffin’s view poses an “impediment” to economic growth.
“From my vantage point, the bombastic rhetoric, the damage has already been done, and it’s a huge mistake to resort to this form of rhetoric when you’re trying to drive a bargain, because it like imprints, it sears into the minds of CEOs, policymakers,” Griffin said during an appearance at a UBS conference in Miami.
The “uncertainty and chaos created by the tariff dynamics between us and our allies is an impediment to growth,” he added. “It makes it difficult for multinationals in particular to think about how to plan for the next five, 10, 15, 20 years.”
Griffin did applaud some of the administration’s efforts to grow the economy as “thoughtful.” He said efforts to loosen some regulations across corporate America have been “really inspiring to corporate CEOs who have been buried in an avalanche of red tape over the course of the last four years.”
--McDonald’s results missed the mark to end 2024 as the fast-food chain faced an underperforming stock, lackluster sales, and an E. coli outbreak in October, blamed on slivered onions served on McDonald’s Quarter Pounder burgers.
Revenue for the fourth quarter decreased 0.28% from a year ago to $6.39 billion, missing expectations of $6.45 billion. Adjusted earnings per share of $2.80 was also lower than Wall Street’s estimate of $2.84.
Global same store sales for the quarter ended Dec. 31 were up 0.4%, compared with an expected decline of 0.91%. But U.S. same-store sales were down 1.4% year over year, as the E. coli outbreak offset momentum in late October.
For 2024, revenue was $25.92 billion vs. the Street’s $25.99bn. Adjusted earnings per share of $11.39 fell short of consensus of $11.74.
Global same-store sales for the year fell 0.1%, while U.S. same-store sales rose 0.2%.
Net income fell 1% to $2.02 billion during the quarter and was down 3% for the year to $8.22 billion.
Many on the Street hope the fourth quarter results are the “low point in recent history for the brand,” as one analyst put it.
In 2025, McDonald’s aims to regain foot traffic with its McValue menu platform and new offerings in the form of chicken tenders, strips, and the return of snack wraps.
The company said consumers remain pressured, particularly low-income diners and families. U.S. sales were sluggish in January, reflecting a broader slump in the industry.
“The industry is still seeing a fair bit of headwind,” Chief Financial Officer Ian Border said.
McDonald’s said it expects to open 2,200 restaurants globally this year, up slightly from the total it projected last year. Around 600 of those locations would be in the U.S.
In the end, investors chose to look at the future and the stock rose 5% Monday after the earnings release. They were upbeat about the company’s recovery in many international markets.
--Coca-Cola beat Wall Street estimates for fourth-quarter profit and revenue, helped by resilient demand for its sodas and juices and higher prices, sending its shares higher on Tuesday.
The world’s top soda company has focused on capturing demand in emerging markets such as India, and expanding its portfolio in North America as consumers turn mindful of strained budgets.
In the U.S., Coca-Cola’s partnerships with value meal deals at fast-food chains such as McDonald’s have helped improve sales, while it also invests in its sparkling water label Topo Chico and Fairlife milk.
The company reported Q4 net revenue of $11.4 billion, beating estimates of $10.68bn. Profit of 55 cents per share topped estimates of 52 cents.
The company expects organic revenue growth for 2025 of 5% to 6%, compared with a 12% rise in 2024, with the forecast at the higher end of the company’s long-term organic revenue growth target of between 4% and 6%.
Consumers, and Coca-Cola executives, are concerned about uncertainties surrounding Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and what he might bring now that he has been confirmed as the head of the Department of Health and Human Services. He is a fervent critic of highly-processed foods and sugary beverages, which he blames for the high obesity rate and poor health of the American people.
--Nestle reported its weakest annual organic sales growth in more than a quarter of a century, hit by consumer pullback, underscoring the challenges facing the packaged-food giant, and the industry overall.
The maker of KitKat chocolate bars and Nescafe coffee said organic sales grew 2.2% in 2024, a sharp drop from growth of 7.2% a year prior.
--CVS Health reported a smaller-than-expected drop in fourth-quarter profit on Wednesday as its pace of medical cost increases slowed and revenue at its pharmacy business jumped, sending its share soaring 16%.
The company had missed earnings targets for the first three quarters of 2024 as it was among the worst hit by surging costs in the Medicare insurance business for people aged 65 and older or who are disabled.
CVS expects annual profit between $5.75 and $6.00 per share, with the mid-point below analysts’ estimate of $5.96.
The company’s healthcare benefits unit posted a quarterly loss of $439 million compared to a profit of $676 million a year ago. This was driven by increased use of medical services, a change in quality ratings for its Medicare Advantage plans and an increase in sicker members enrolled in its Medicaid plans for lower-income people.
The company’s medical loss ratio, or percent of premiums spent on patient care, deteriorated to 94.8% from 88.5% a year ago, but improved from a record-high of 95.2% in the prior quarter.
CVS laid out cost-cutting plans in November and rejiggered its top management as part of new CEO David Joyner’s efforts to turn around the company.
Revenue in its pharmacy and consumer wellness segment rose 7.5% to $33.51 billion, helped by higher volumes of prescription drugs.
On an adjusted basis, CVS reported a fourth-quarter profit of $1.19 per share, down from $2.12 a year ago, but well above expectations of 93 cents.
--From the New York Times:
“The curious trade came a little past 9 p.m. on Jan. 17 – a $1,096,109 bet less than two minutes after the soon-to-be president of the United States posted on his social media account that his family had issued a cryptocurrency called $Trump.
“In those first minutes, a crypto wallet with a unique identification code beginning 6QSc2Cx secured a giant load of these new tokens – 5,971,750 of them – at the opening sale price of just 18 cents each, starting a surge in the $Trump price that would soon reach $75 per token.
“This early trader, whose identity is not known, walked away with a two-day profit of as much as $109 million, according to an analysis performed for The New York Times.
“But the fast profits for early traders, whose names are unknown but some of whom appear to be based in China, came at the expense of a far larger number of slower investors who have cumulatively suffered more than $2 billion in losses after the price of the token crashed....
“Whether people made or lost money, it was stellar business for the Trumps. Nearly $100 million in trading fees have flowed to the family and its partners, although most of that has not yet been cashed out, the Chainalysis data shows.”
Three days before he was inaugurated, President Trump promoted the coin on Truth Social, and on Elon Musk’s X, saying: “Join my very special Trump Community. GET YOUR $TRUMP NOW.” [Eric Lipton and David Yaffe-Balleny / New York Times]
Just today, Friday, $Trump traded at $16 in the morning and hit $24 early afternoon. Beyond absurd.
--Nielsen said the Super Bowl averaged a record 127.7 million U.S. viewers across television and streaming platforms for Philadelphia’s 40-22 victory over Kansas City.
The game was televised by Fox, Fox Deportes and Telemundo and streamed on Tubi as well as the NFL’s digital platforms.
This is a 3% increase from last year, the second year the Super Bowl has reached a record audience.
According to Nielsen, the audience peaked at 137.7 million in the second quarter (8-8:15 p.m. ET).
Foreign Affairs
Russia-Ukraine: As alluded to above, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, in his first meeting with NATO and Ukrainian defense ministers at a meeting in Brussels, Wednesday, said a return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is “an unrealistic objective” and an “illusionary goal” in any peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia that President Trump wants to accomplish.
Hegseth told the ministers that Trump “intends to end this war by diplomacy and bringing both Russia and Ukraine to the table.”
But for Ukraine to try to regain all of the territory Russia has seized since 2014, as it insists it must do, “will only prolong the war and cause more suffering,” Hegseth said.
“We will only end this devastating war and establish a durable peace by coupling allied strength with a realistic assessment of the battlefield,” he said.
Hegseth also repeated President Trump’s expectations that Europe bear more financial and military responsibility for Ukraine’s defense. Europe must spend more money on its armed forces, up to 5 percent of national output.
And the defense secretary said Trump does not support Ukraine’s membership in NATO as part of any peace plan.
“The United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement,” Hegseth said.
After a settlement, “a durable peace for Ukraine must include robust security guarantees to ensure that the war will not begin again,” but that would be the responsibility, he said, of European and non-European troops in a “non-NATO mission” unprotected by NATO’s Article Five commitment to collective defense.
No American troops will be deployed to Ukraine, he said, and Europe should provide “the overwhelming share of future lethal and nonlethal aid to Ukraine.”
NATO has promised that Ukraine will one day become a member of NATO, but without specifying a date. Hegseth’s comments would appear to put that date very far into the unforeseeable future, if it arrives at all.
Putin has demanded that Russia keep its occupied territories, that Ukraine not join NATO, that its military capacity be limited and that NATO enlargement should halt. He has said he is willing to join negotiations on a settlement with Ukraine, but only on his terms.
Hegseth said the United States “remains committed to the NATO alliance and to the defense partnership with Europe, full stop, but the United States will no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship which encourages dependency.”
So Europe must step up to take responsibility for its own conventional defense, but Hegseth implied the American nuclear umbrella that helps protect NATO and Europe would remain in place.
Hegseth said the Trump administration is turning the U.S. military’s focus away from Europe and to its southern border with Mexico, as well as attempting to address the recent economic and military rise of China, which he said has the “capability and intent to threaten our homeland.”
British Defense Minister John Healey thanked Hegseth for his input, but notably did not back the Pentagon chief’s recommendation that Ukraine concede its invaded territory.
Wednesday, President Trump held a phone call with Vladimir Putin that he described as “lengthy and highly productive.” He characterized the conversation – the first confirmed talks between the two leaders since Trump returned to the White House – as the beginning of a negotiation to end the war in Ukraine.
The president had promised on the campaign trail that the war would end within “24 hours” of him taking office.
In a Truth Social post after the call, Trump wrote: “We want to stop the millions of deaths taking place in the War with Russia/Ukraine. President Putin even used my very strong Campaign motto of, ‘COMMON SENSE.’”
Of course, once again Trump is failing to see he’s being ‘played.’
President Zelensky then said he had his own call later with Trump about “charting our next steps to stop Russian aggression and ensure a lasting, reliable peace.” However, the Ukrainians appear to have limited leverage. And it was telling that Trump called Putin first, not Zelensky.
“We, as a sovereign country, simply will not be able to accept any agreements without us,” Zelensky said after the call.
The aforementioned British Defense Secretary Healey said during a meeting with NATO officials in Brussels: “There can be no negotiation about Ukraine without Ukraine. And Ukraine’s voice must be at the heart of any talks.”
In essence, Trump upended three years of U.S. policy toward Ukraine.
Trump said after his call with Putin, “I think we’re on the way to getting peace.” But after talking to Zelensky, Trump said he was noncommittal about whether Ukraine would be an equal participant in U.S. negotiations with Russia.
“I think President Putin wants peace and President Zelensky wants peace and I want peace,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “I just want to see people stop being killed.”
Of his conversation with Putin, Trump said, “People didn’t really know what President Putin’s thoughts were. But I think I can say with great confidence, he wants to see it ended also, so that’s good – and we’re going to work toward getting it ended and as fast as possible.”
Trump noted that he would “probably” meet in person with Putin in the near term, suggesting that could happen in Saudi Arabia.
On the issue of NATO membership, Trump echoed Secretary Hegseth’s statement. “I don’t think it’s practical to have it, personally,” Trump said.
Trump added of Russia: “I think long before President Putin, they said there’s no way they’d allow that.”
“They’ve been saying that for a long time that Ukraine cannot go into NATO,” Trump said. “And I’m OK with that.”
Despite all this, Zelensky put a brave face on a humiliating day. In a social media post, he said he had a “meaningful conversation” with Trump that included discussion of “opportunities to achieve peace” and Kyiv’s “readiness to work together at the team level.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Trump called for a quick cessation of hostilities and a peaceful settlement, and that “President Putin, in his turn, emphasized the need to remove the root causes of the conflict [emphasis mine] and agreed with Trump that long-term settlement could be achieved through peace talks.”
“The Russian president supported one of the main theses of the U.S. president that the time has come for our two countries to work together,” Peskov told reporters. “The Russian president invited the U.S. president to visit Moscow and expressed readiness to host U.S. officials in Russia for issues of mutual interest, naturally including Ukraine, the Ukrainian settlement.”
The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War, referring to ‘eliminating the root causes’ of the invasion, reminds us “Russian officials have explicitly defined...as NATO’s alleged violation of commitments not to advance eastward in areas near Russia’s border,” suggesting Putin “is not interested in compromising on this demand.”
Trump suggested that aid would continue to flow to Ukraine but that the U.S. would get access to its rare earth elements and oil and gas. But most of this is in Russian-occupied Donbas!
European powers immediately weighed in, insisting they have to be part of any future negotiations on the fate of Ukraine, underscoring that only a fair accord with security guarantees would ensure lasting peace.
“Our shared objectives should be to put Ukraine in a position of strength. Ukraine and Europe must be part of any negotiations,” seven European countries and the European Commission said in a joint statement after a foreign ministers meeting in Paris.
“Ukraine should be provided with strong security guarantees. A just and lasting peace in Ukraine is a necessary condition for a strong transatlantic security,” the statement said, adding the European powers were looking forward to discussing the way ahead with their American allies.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said Thursday that any peace deal in Ukraine must be enduring and that any discussions must include Kyiv.
“It is crucial that whatever comes out of those talks, it is durable, it is enduring,” Rutte told reporters in Brussels ahead of talks with the alliance’s defense ministers.
In a sign of the tension between the Trump administration and Europe, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said it would have been better if Washington had not given what he called concessions to Moscow before peace talks even started.
“President after president knew that transatlantic security benefited both the U.S. and Europe,” former UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told Bloomberg. “It seems Trump thinks he knows better. History shall be the judge of this decision.”
Thursday, Trump then said Ukraine would have a seat at the table.
Also Thursday, Vice President JD Vance said that the U.S. would hit Moscow with sanctions and potentially military action if Vladimir Putin won’t agree to a peace deal with Ukraine that guarantees Kyiv’s long-term independence.
“There are economic tools of leverage, there are of course military tools of leverage” the U.S. could use against Putin.
Vance said the option of sending U.S. troops to Ukraine if Moscow failed to negotiate in good faith remained “on the table.”
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, hours after President Trump said he would start negotiating with Putin to end the war, Vance said: “I think there is a deal that is going to come out of this that’s going to shock a lot of people.”
But Vance struck a far tougher tone than Not-Ready-for-Prime-Time Defense Secretary Hegseth, who had said the U.S. wouldn’t commit forces.
Friday, President Zelensky, in his speech to the Munich Security Conference, said he will only agree to meet in-person with Putin after a common plan is negotiated with President Trump.
In his own remarks to the conference, Vice President Vance lectured European officials on free speech and illegal migration on the continent, warning elected officials that they risk losing public support if they don’t quickly change course.
“If you’re running in fear of your own voters there’s nothing America can do for you,” Vance said.
Vance only made a passing mention of the 3-year-old war in Ukraine, and instead said things like:
“In Washington, there is a new sheriff in town. And under Donald Trump’s leadership, we may disagree with your views, but we will fight to defend your right to offer it in the public square.”
It was a lecture on European politics and culture that was not well received by the audience, and it was totally nonsensical.
Late word, which is just through a single report I saw, was that Vance, incredibly, met with the leader of Germany’s neo-Nazi AfD party. If true, boy, I’ll comment on that next week.
--Tuesday, in a deal between Washington and Moscow, Russia freed American Marc Fogel, an American teacher who had been in a Russian prison for three years on charges of bringing medical marijuana into Russia in August 2021.
Fogel arrived in the U.S. and was greeted at the White House by President Trump, his special envoy Steve Witkoff and a number of other politicians.
The Russian co-founder of a popular bitcoin exchange will be released from U.S. custody in exchange for Fogel. Alexander Vinnik, the co-founder of BTC-e, was in U.S. custody in California.
U.S. authorities have said BTC-e was a key platform used by cybercriminals to facilitate ransomware extortions, identity-theft schemes and narcotics distribution. Vinnik had been awaiting sentencing in the U.S. in late June, after pleading guilty to conspiracy to commit money laundering. He had been detained since 2017, first in Greece and then in France, before his extradition to the U.S. in 2022 at the age of 42.
Belarus then freed an American and two others as it tries to thaw relations. The releases were aided by a U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state, Christopher Smith, a holdover from the Biden administration.
--President Zelensky said this week that North Korean forces have returned to the front line in Russia’s western Kursk region, after reports they were withdrawn last month due to heavy casualties.
In a video address last Friday, Zelensky said “hundreds of Russian and North Korean military” personnel had been “destroyed.”
--Tuesday, Russia struck Kyiv in a morning missile attack, killing at least one civilian and sparking several fires throughout the city, Ukrainian officials said.
“This is how [Vladimir Putin] wants the war to end,” said Andriy Yermak, President Zelensky’s chief of staff, in a post on Telegram.
--Friday, a Russian drone with a high-explosive warhead hit the protective containment shell of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in the Kyiv region during the night, President Zelensky said.
Radiation levels have not increased, Zelensky and the UN atomic agency said.
Israel-Gaza: Hamas said Thursday it would release Israeli hostages as planned, apparently resolving a major dispute that threatened the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. President Trump had said Monday that if Hamas did not release all the remaining Israeli hostages by “12 o’clock on Saturday,” the ceasefire agreement with Israel should be canceled.
The terrorist group said Egyptian and Qatari mediators have affirmed that they will work to “remove all hurdles,” and that it would implement the ceasefire deal.
The statement indicated three more Israeli hostages would be freed Saturday. All eyes will be on the condition of those released, after we all saw the emaciated three Israelis released last Saturday in exchange for 183 Palestinians jailed by Israel.
So far, 16 out of 33 hostages scheduled for release in the current phase of the agreement have been freed by Hamas, and 656 Palestinian prisoners from a list of nearly 2,000 have been released by Israel.
The future of the deal remains in doubt. There appears to be no momentum for extending the original six-week framework.
Israeli forces did begin withdrawing from a key Gaza corridor last Sunday, Israeli officials said, as part of Israel’s commitments under the terms of the ceasefire. The Netzarim corridor bisects northern Gaza from the south that Israel used as a military zone during the war. Israel has been allowing Palestinians to cross Netzarim to head to their homes in the war-battered north.
--Meanwhile, President Trump said Palestinians in Gaza would not have a right to return under his plan for U.S. “ownership” of the war-torn territory, contradicting other officials in his administration who have sought to argue Trump was only calling for the temporary relocation of its population.
The specifics of Trump’s plan are unclear: “We’ll build safe communities, a little bit away from where they are, where all of this danger is,” Trump said in his interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier. “In the meantime, I would own this. Think of it as a real estate development for the future. It would be a beautiful piece of land. No big money spent.”
But Monday Trump said he could cut aid to Jordan and Egypt if they refused his demand to permanently take in most Palestinians from Gaza, substantially increasing the pressure on key allies in the region to back his audacious proposal to relocate the entire population of the territory in order to redevelop it.
Tuesday, Trump then met with Jordan’s King Abdullah at the White House, with Jordan treading a tightrope between its military and diplomatic ties, and popular support for the Palestinians at home.
Abdullah was asked repeatedly about Trump’s plan to clear out Gaza and overhaul it as a resort on the Mediterranean Sea – but didn’t make substantive comments on it while also not committing to the idea that his country could accept large numbers of new refugees from Gaza.
“I finally see somebody that can take us across the finish line to bring stability, peace and prosperity to all of us in the region,” the king said of Trump in his statement at the top of the meeting.
Hours later, Abdullah posted on X that during his meeting with Trump, “I reiterated Jordan’s steadfast position against the displacement of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank.”
“This is the unified Arab position. Rebuilding Gaza without displacing the Palestinians and addressing the dire humanitarian situation should be the priority for all,” Abdullah wrote.
This was despite Trump using his appearance with Abdullah to repeat suggestions that the U.S. could come to control Gaza. Trump also said Tuesday that it wouldn’t require committing American funds but that the U.S. overseeing the war-torn region would be possible, “Under the U.S. authority,” without elaborating what that actually was.
“We’re not going to buy anything. We’re going to have it,” Trump said of U.S. control in Gaza. He suggested that the redeveloped area could have new hotels, office buildings and houses, “and we’ll make it exciting.”
“I can tell you about real estate. They’re going to be in love with it,” Trump said. Just no Palestinians, save for those who might work in the rebuilding effort.
Jordan is the home to more than 2 million Palestinians today. Jordan’s foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, said last week that his country’s opposition to Trump’s idea about displacing Gaza’s residents was “firm and unwavering.”
--In Lebanon, Israel said it will hold onto five strategic high points just inside Lebanon after next Tuesday’s ceasefire deadline requiring it to withdraw all troops, a top Israeli government official says.
The army will redeploy but retain those five positions “until Lebanon implements its treaty obligations,” said Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, who’s one of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s closest confidants.
Israel’s refusal to fully withdraw risks reigniting tensions with Hezbollah and undermines Lebanon’s newly-formed government as it attempts to establish its authority in the country. It also comes at a delicate time for Israel amidst the fragile truce with Hamas.
Dermer declined to say how long these positions would be maintained, but signaled Israeli troops won’t be removed in the short term. He said Lebanon’s obligations as part of a ceasefire deal signed in November include not only keeping Hezbollah away from Israel’s northern border but also disarming the Iran-backed militia and preventing it building back up.
--The Wall Street Journal reported in an exclusive: “U.S. intelligence agencies concluded during the final days of the Biden administration that Israel is considering significant strikes on Iranian nuclear sites this year, aiming to take advantage of Iran’s weakness, officials familiar with the report said....
“The intelligence analysis concluded Israel would push the Trump administration to back the strikes, viewing him as more likely to join an attack than former President Joe Biden and fearing the window for halting Tehran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon was closing, two of the people familiar with the intelligence said.
“The U.S. intelligence community produced a second report delivered during the early days of President Trump’s administration reiterating that Israel is considering such strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities....
“U.S. military support and munitions would likely be needed for an Israeli attack on Iran’s heavily fortified nuclear sites given their complexity, U.S. military officials say.”
China: The U.S. Indo-Pacific commander, Navy Adm. Sam Paparo, speaking at the Honolulu Defense Forum, said China is rehearsing for war.
The Chinese government is “on a dangerous course” and its military’s “aggressive maneuvers around Taiwan right now are not exercises, as they call them. They are rehearsals,” Paparo said. The Chinese actions – which just this month have included sending multiple spy balloons, naval vessels, and military planes around the island – are “rehearsals for the forced unification of Taiwan to the mainland.”
And China’s “increasingly complex multi-domain operations demonstrates clear intent and improving capability,” he said.
Meanwhile, Beijing condemned Taiwan’s ruling party for ordering a ban on DeepSeek in government departments and public schools, while calling for cross-strait cooperation on artificial intelligence.
The Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) of the State Council, which handles cross-strait relations and policies, also highlighted the global “popularity” of the AI model from the mainland start-up as it dismissed security concerns.
“The [mainland] Chinese AI model has gained widespread popularity among internet users worldwide,” TAO spokeswoman Zhu Fenglian said on Wednesday, encouraging Taiwanese to use the program and support collaboration across the Taiwan Strait.
Don’t do it, my Taiwanese friends. It’s a trap.
Random Musings
--Presidential approval ratings....
Gallup: 47% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 48% disapprove. 46% of independents approve (Jan. 21-27).
Rasmussen: 54% approve, 44% disapprove (Feb. 14).
--A CBS News/YouGov national poll of adults conducted Feb. 5-7 gave President Trump a 53% job approval rating, 47% disapproval.
On his program to deport immigrants illegally in the U.S, 59% approve, 41% disapprove.
But the same poll found 66% of adults (including 48% of Republicans) said the administration hasn’t focused enough on lowering consumer prices.
On Elon Musk & DOGE: Influence over government operations and spending should be...
23%...a lot
28%...some
18%...not much
31%...none
--A Pew Research national poll gave Trump an approval rating of 47%, 51% disapproval (Jan. 27-Feb. 2).
--President Trump said it’s too early to know if he will anoint Vice President JD Vance as his would-be successor ahead of the 2028 election.
In his interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier, Baier asked: “Do you view Vice President JD Vance as your successor, the Republican nominee in 2028?”
“No, but he’s very capable,” Trump replied.
Trump said it’s too early to know.
“I think you have a lot of very capable people,” the president added. “So far I think he’s doing a fantastic job. It’s too early. We’re just starting.”
“By the time we get to the midterms,” Baier interjected, “[Vance] is going to be looking for an endorsement.”
“A lot of people have said that this has been the greatest opening – almost three weeks – in the history of the presidency,” Trump deflected.
Trump perhaps chose not to endorse Vance as his successor to avoid calling attention to the fact that he is constitutionally obligated to leave office in January 2029.
Or he plans to place a family member at the top of the ticket. Don Jr. had urged his father to select Vance as his running mate.
Presidents don’t always support their vice president’s aspirations. Then-President Obama discouraged his No. 2, Joe Biden, from running for president in 2016, clearing the way for Hillary Clinton.
--The Senate on Wednesday confirmed Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence by a 52-48 vote, Republican Mitch McConnell the only ‘no’ vote from his party.
Thursday, the Senate confirmed Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, another victory for President Trump. The vote was also 52-48, Sen. McConnell the only Republican in dissent.
McConnell issued a blistering statement after the vote:
“In my lifetime, I’ve watched vaccines save millions of lives from devastating diseases across America and around the world. I will not condone the relitigation of proven cures, and neither will millions of Americans who credit their survival and quality of life to scientific miracles.
“Individuals, parents, and families have a right to push for a healthier nation and demand the best possible scientific guidance on preventing and treating illness. But a record of trafficking in dangerous conspiracy theories and eroding trust in public health institutions does not entitle Mr. Kennedy to lead these important efforts.”
In a related story, at least 22 children and two adults have been infected in a West Texas measles outbreak. None of the 24 had been immunized with the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine, the Gaines County, TX, health authority said. Nine patients were hospitalized.
--Maureen Dowd / New York Times
“Presidents Trump and Musk have merged their cult followings, attention addictions, conspiratorial mind-sets, disinformation artistry, disdain for the Constitution, talent for apocalyptic marketing and jumping-from-thing-to-thing styles.
“With a pitiless and mindless velocity, they are running roughshod over the government – and the globe.
“Queasy D.C. denizens are waiting anxiously to see if judges can save the country from the scofflaws running it.
“The two unchecked and unbalanced billionaires are entwined in a heady and earth-shattering relationship.
“ ‘I love @realDonaldTrump as much as a straight man can love another man,’ Musk posted on X (last) Friday.
“He may simply be offering affection to ward off any jealousy Trump felt when he saw Time’s new cover illustration: Musk in the Oval behind the Resolute Desk.
“Elon Musk is brainy but he’s not your usual presidential brain trust.
“Although everyone in Washington, including some in Trump’s inner circle, expect the two pathological narcissists to barrel into each other, they both seem to be getting what they want from the relationship.
“Trump loves to be admired by the elites, and he adores money. Musk has gotten the keys to the American kingdom so he can attack ‘the woke mind virus,’ which Musk says ‘killed’ his ‘son,’ who transitioned as a teenager. Both men are driven by revenge to smash up the government.
“The president and the tech lord even have progeny, little Elons: the lost boys of DOGE, a gang of Gen-Zers in jeans with backpacks and bags of Doritos bursting into federal agencies to gut them and force bureaucrats to justify their existence.
“Their backgrounds and work are shrouded in secrecy, even as they access the government’s most sensitive information....
“It’s not that we don’t need to rein in spending, including what is spent on risibly P.C. programs. But the disdain for Congress and the rule of law, and the glee at erasing so many jobs and programs, as if there is no human cost, is reprehensible. We are, after all, only carbon-based beings....
“The Silicon Valley digerati don’t care about the old world in Washington, D.C., churning out meddlesome regulations, laws and taxes. They are cocky about creating a new world, shaped by a new species, A.I.
“Donald and Elon are emotional time bombs, lashing out in the crudest and cruelest ways. Trump’s amoral, puerile, wrecking-ball style is now squared by Musk’s.
“It’s rich that the world’s richest man is rooting around trying to wipe out vast numbers of government workers, saying, ‘Sorry, you can’t have your $85,000 a year job and your health insurance.’
“ ‘They don’t care if the government delivers food or comes in and rescues your town from a flood or teaches poor kids in the inner city because they don’t have to live through any of those things themselves,’ said the Trump biographer Tim O’Brien. ‘They’re rich and powerful, so they’re insulated from consequences of their actions.’
“Trump cares about being popular and Musk doesn’t. So their relationship will probably remain strong until Elon cuts so many benefits from the Trump faithful that they tell Trump they no longer love him.”
--Two top U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials were reassigned amid pressure to dramatically increase arrests of immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally, sources told Reuters.
Tuesday, Russell Hott and Peter Berg, the two most senior officials in the agency’s enforcement division, learned they would be reassigned.
President Trump took office promising record deportations, but while arrests surged in late January to 800-1,200 per day, enforcement tapered off in February as detention centers filled up and the additional enforcement teams returned home.
--The Defense Department late last Friday doubled the number of news organizations that must vacate their Pentagon office spaces to be replaced by other media outlets under a new “annual media rotation program.”
CNN, the Washington Post, the Hill and the War Zone were added to the New York Times, NBC News, Politico and NPR in having to vacate.
The eight were replaced by the New York Post, Breitbart, the Washington Examiner, the Free Press, the Daily Caller, Newsmax, the Huffington Post and One American News Network.
The Pentagon Press Association, which represents journalists who cover the Defense Department, said it was “shocked and deeply disappointed by the Defense Department’s decision.”
Tuesday, the White House blocked an Associated Press reporter from an event in the Oval Office after demanding the news agency alter its style on the Gulf of Mexico, which President Trump has ordered be renamed the Gulf of America.
Julie Pace, AP’s senior vice president and executive order, called the administration’s move unacceptable.
“It is alarming that the Trump administration would punish AP for its independent journalism,” Pace said in a statement. “Limiting our access to the Oval Office based on the content of AP’s speech not only severely impedes the public’s access to independent news, it plainly violates the First Amendment.”
It’s the Gulf of Mexico to me.
--The Justice Department on Monday directed federal prosecutors in New York to drop corruption charges against New York Mayor Eric Adams, asserting that the case was impeding his ability to aid President Donald Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration.
In a memo to the U.S. Attorney’s office in Manhattan, Acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove wrote that the decision had nothing to do with the merits of the case, and that the Justice Department was not questioning the integrity of the prosecutors who brought it.
Instead, he wrote that the September 2024 indictment – brought by federal prosecutors during former President Biden’s term – interfered with Adams’ 2025 mayoral re-election campaign, and that the case was distracting Adams from supporting the federal government on immigration.
But, as the DOJ instructed the Southern District of New York to dismiss the case without prejudice, charges could be re-filed in the future, though this seems unlikely.
Thursday, the acting Manhattan U.S. attorney then stepped down after the DOJ’s order. Five officials in Washington at the DOJ did the same.
In a scathing resignation letter sent by Danielle Sassoon, a staunch conservative, she said federal prosecutors were preparing new charges against the embattled mayor when the DOJ’s order was issued.
“Because the law does not support a dismissal, and because I am confident that Adams has committed the crimes with which he is charged, I cannot agree to seek a dismissal driven by improper considerations,” Sassoon wrote.
A second star prosecutor in the Manhattan U.S. attorney’s office, Hagan Scotten, also a registered Republican who clerked for Chief Justice John Roberts (Sasson clerked for Justice Antonin Scalia), resigned Friday, as first broken by the Wall Street Journal.
Scotten said in an email to a top Justice Department official that while he hadn’t been asked to dismiss the Adams charges, the law didn’t allow prosecutors to use their power to influence citizens or elected officials.
“If no lawyer within earshot of the President is willing to give him that advice, then I expect you will eventually find someone who is enough of a fool, or enough of a coward, to file your motion,” Scotten wrote. “But it was never going to be me.”
This is a bit of a crisis with legs...there is growing pressure for Mayor Adams to resign as I post.
--President Trump announced his intention to bring the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington more firmly under his control, saying he would dismiss some board members and install himself as chairman.
“At my direction, we are going to make the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C., GREAT AGAIN” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “We will soon announce a new Board, with an amazing Chairman, DONALD J. TRUMP.”
The current chairman is David Rubenstein, the financier and philanthropist who has held the position for more than a decade, but Rubenstein’s announced his retirement last month. Then, after Trump’s election, the Kennedy Center said that he would stay in the role until September 2026. No more.
Trump then named former acting director of national intelligence Richard Grenell as the interim executive director of the Kennedy Center, installing an ally. It’s unclear if Trump is allowed to do this.
Trump then fired longtime president, Deborah Rigger, from her position, replaced by Grenell.
--President Trump said he has ordered a stop to minting new pennies, which has been talked about for a long time, because they cost more to make than they’re worth.
DOGE said in January that each penny costs more than 3 cents to make, costing U.S. taxpayers about $179 million in 2023.
By the way...it costs 13.8 cents to produce a nickel.
I totally disagree with this move.
--An atmospheric river pummeled Southern California with heavy rain on Thursday, 2-4 inches across the region, which prompted evacuations and school closures as horrific mudslides and flooding hit areas charred by the wildfires.
--Astronomers around the world are watching Asteroid 2024 YR4, which they’ve concluded has a 2% chance of hitting the Earth around Dec. 22, 2032, which could put a damper on holiday shopping in seven years.
There is a chance that the probability could drop to zero as scientists refine their forecasts, helped by NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope, but said rock could be the size of a football field.
Recall, in 2022, NASA said it successfully collided a spacecraft into an asteroid, changing its motion through space significantly.
---
Pray for the men and women of our armed forces...and all the fallen.
Pray for Ukraine. More than ever.
God bless America.
---
Gold $2895...hit a record $2940 earlier this week
Oil $70.63
Bitcoin: $97,250 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]
Regular Gas: $3.16; Diesel: $3.67 [$3.25 - $4.08 yr. ago]
Returns for the week 2/10-2/14
Dow Jones +0.6% [44546]
S&P 500 +1.5% [6114]
S&P MidCap -0.2%
Russell 2000 +0.01%
Nasdaq +2.6% [20026]
Returns for the period 1/1/25-2/14/25
Dow Jones +4.7%
S&P 500 +4.0%
S&P MidCap +2.5%
Russell 2000 +2.2%
Nasdaq +3.7%
Bulls 47.5
Bears 29.5...still no update, not sure why
Hang in there.
Happy Valentine’s Day. Enjoy the holiday weekend.
Brian Trumbore