|
10/28/2004
Election 2004
There is no greater “hot spot” this coming week, and maybe
beyond, than the U.S. and the presidential election. Michael
Barone, editor of the definitive “The Almanac of American
Politics” (with Richard E. Cohen), had the following introduction
in the 2002 edition.
The 49% Solution
“The United States at the end of the 20th Century was a nation
divided down the middle. In 1996 Bill Clinton was re-elected
with 49.2% of the vote. That same year Republicans held the
House when their candidates led Democrats by a 48.9% to 48.5%
margin. In 1998 Republicans held onto the House when their
candidates led in popular vote by 48.9% to 47.8%. On
November 7, 2000 – although the final result was not known
until five weeks later – George W. Bush won 47.9% of the vote
and Al Gore 48.4%. The same day House Republican candidates
led Democrats by a 49.2% to 47.9% margin. Round off these
numbers and you have 49%, 49%, 49%, 49%, 48%, 48%, 48%,
49%, 48% - essentially the same number over and over. We
haven’t had such stasis in successive election results since the
1880s, which was also the last decade when a president was
elected despite trailing in the popular vote and when the Senate
was equally divided between the two major parties.”
Using the above noted book as my primary source, I put together
a little fact sheet, using the 2000 results, so as you sit in front of
the television on Election Night you can do your own scoring.
I only included Ralph Nader where his vote was significant in
gross #s (like Alaska and Vermont), or where there is a chance,
even if slight, that he could still have an impact on the decision
in 2004. Ballot access information for him is gleaned from his
own web site, as well as other sources.
2000
Alabama Bush 56%...Gore 42%
Alaska ...Bush 59%...Gore 28%...Nader 10%*
Arizona .Bush 51%...Gore 44%
Arkansas Bush 51%...Gore 46%
California Gore 53%...Bush 42%
Colorado Bush 51%...Gore 42%
Connecticut Gore 56%...Bush 38%
Delaware Gore 55%...Bush 42%
D.C. ...Gore 85%...Bush 9%
Florida Bush 49%...Gore 49%...Nader 2%*
Georgia .Bush 55%...Gore 43%
Hawaii Gore 56%...Bush 37%
Idaho ...Bush 67%...Gore 28%
Illinois Gore 55%...Bush 43%
Indiana Bush 57%...Gore 41%
Iowa Gore 49%...Bush 48%...Nader 2%*
Kansas Bush 58%...Gore 37%
Kentucky Bush 57%...Gore 41%
Louisiana Bush 53%...Gore 45%
Maine ..Gore 49%...Bush 44%...Nader 6%*
Maryland Gore 57%...Bush 40%
Massachusetts Gore 60%...Bush 33%
Michigan Gore 51%...Bush 46%
Minnesota Gore 48%...Bush 46%...Nader 5%*
Mississippi Bush 58%...Gore 41%
Missouri Bush 50%...Gore 47%...Nader 2% [Write in]
Montana Bush 58%...Gore 33%
Nebraska Bush 62%...Gore 33%
Nevada .Bush 50%...Gore 46%
New Hampshire Bush 48%...Gore 47%...Nader 4%*
New Jersey Gore 56%...Bush 40%
New Mexico Gore 48%...Bush 48%...Nader 4%*
New York Gore 60%...Bush 35%
North Carolina Bush 56%...Gore 43%
North Dakota Bush 61%...Gore 33%
Ohio ..Bush 50%...Gore 46%...Nader 3% [Not on]
Oklahoma Bush 60%...Gore 38%
Oregon Gore 47%...Bush 47%...Nader 5% [Write in]
Pennsylvania Gore 51%...Bush 46%
Rhode Island Gore 61%...Bush 32%
South Carolina Bush 57%...Gore 41%
South Dakota Bush 60%...Gore 38%
Tennessee Bush 51%...Gore 47%
Texas .Bush 59%...Gore 38%
Utah ..Bush 67%...Gore 26%
Vermont Gore 51%...Bush 41%...Nader 7%*
Virginia Bush 52%...Gore 44%
Washington Gore 50%...Bush 45%
West Virginia Bush 52%...Gore 46%
Wisconsin Gore 48%...Bush 48%...Nader 4%*
Wyoming Bush 69%...Gore 28%
*Nader on the ballot in 2004.
---
Potential Nader Impact 2000 Vote Tallies
Florida
Bush 2,912,790
Gore 2,912,253
Nader ...97,488
Iowa
Gore 638,517
Bush 634,373
Nader 29,374
Maine probably not a factor
Gore 319,951
Bush 286,616
Nader 37,127
Minnesota
Gore 1,168,266
Bush 1,109,659
Nader .126,696
Missouri
Bush 1,189,924
Gore 1,111,138
Nader ...38,515
New Hampshire
Bush 273,559
Gore 266,348
Nader 22,188
New Mexico highly disputed vote count; lost ballots, etc.
Gore 286,783
Bush 286,418
Nader....21,251
Ohio
Bush 2,350,363
Gore 2,183,628
Nader .117,799
Oregon
Gore 720,342
Bush 713,577
Nader 77,357
Wisconsin
Gore 1,242,987
Bush 1,237,279
Nader ...94,070
---
Hott Spotts will return November 11. I’m going to enjoy the
election with the rest of you next week. [Of course the extent of
the “enjoyment” will be directly linked to whether your favored
candidate wins or not.]
Brian Trumbore
|
