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Wall Street History

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01/10/2003

Just the Facts, Part II

More data for you market junkies out there. Clip and save!

Returns for the decade of the

60s – Dow Jones +17.8% (not including dividends)
70s – Dow Jones +4.8% (yup, that’s it)
80s – Dow Jones +228%, Nasdaq +200%
90s – Dow Jones +318%, Nasdaq +796%
00s – Dow Jones -27%, Nasdaq ..-67%*
*12/99-12/02

10/11/90 start of the 90s bull move:

Dow Jones 2365 trailing p/e 11.6; dividend yield, 4.2%
S&P 500 295 trailing p/e, 14.1
Nasdaq ..325
Bulls: 32.2% / Bears: 53.7% [Source: Investors Intelligence].
This is normally an excellent contrarian indicator, as it proved to
be back then. You can check the weekly figures in my “Week in
Review” column.

*Of course the 10/11/90 lows were established during the height
of the buildup in the Gulf prior to the war.

12/31/99

Dow Jones 11497
S&P 500 1469
Russell 2000 504
Nasdaq 4069

12/31/02

Dow Jones 8341
S&P 500 879
Russell 2000 383
Nasdaq 1335

Five-year annual average return as of 12/31/02

S&P 500 (including dividends) -0.6%
Average Short U.S. Government Fund +5.6%

Recent Market Lows

9/21/01 bottom after 9/11

Dow Jones 8235
S&P 500 965
Nasdaq .1423

10/9/02

Dow Jones 7286
S&P 500 776
Nasdaq .1114

U.S. Treasury Yields

12/31/99

2-year 6.24%
10-year..6.43%

12/31/00

2-year 5.09%
10-year..5.11%

12/31/01

2-year 3.05%
10-year..5.03%

12/31/02

2-year 1.58%
10-year..3.82%

Gold

12/96 $368
12/97 $289
12/98 $288
12/99 $289
12/00 $272
12/01 $279
12/02 $347

Oil [Light Sweet]

12/99 $25.20
12/00 $26.80
12/01 $19.84
12/02 $31.20

Market Highs

AOL 1/3/00 $83
AT&T 3/29/00 $61
Apple 3/23/00 $75
Amazon.com 12/9/99 $113
Cisco 3/27/00 $82
Corning 8/30/00 $113
Dell 3/22/00 $60
EMC 9/25/00 $105
eBay 3/27/00 $127
Intel 8/28/00 $76
JDS Uniphase 3/7/00 $153
Lucent 12/29/99 $74
Microsoft 12/30/99 $120
Nortel 7/25/00 $89
Oracle 9/1/00 $46
Sun Micro 9/1/00 $65
Yahoo 1/4/00 $250

---

Wall Street History will return next week.

Brian Trumbore



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-01/10/2003-      
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Wall Street History

01/10/2003

Just the Facts, Part II

More data for you market junkies out there. Clip and save!

Returns for the decade of the

60s – Dow Jones +17.8% (not including dividends)
70s – Dow Jones +4.8% (yup, that’s it)
80s – Dow Jones +228%, Nasdaq +200%
90s – Dow Jones +318%, Nasdaq +796%
00s – Dow Jones -27%, Nasdaq ..-67%*
*12/99-12/02

10/11/90 start of the 90s bull move:

Dow Jones 2365 trailing p/e 11.6; dividend yield, 4.2%
S&P 500 295 trailing p/e, 14.1
Nasdaq ..325
Bulls: 32.2% / Bears: 53.7% [Source: Investors Intelligence].
This is normally an excellent contrarian indicator, as it proved to
be back then. You can check the weekly figures in my “Week in
Review” column.

*Of course the 10/11/90 lows were established during the height
of the buildup in the Gulf prior to the war.

12/31/99

Dow Jones 11497
S&P 500 1469
Russell 2000 504
Nasdaq 4069

12/31/02

Dow Jones 8341
S&P 500 879
Russell 2000 383
Nasdaq 1335

Five-year annual average return as of 12/31/02

S&P 500 (including dividends) -0.6%
Average Short U.S. Government Fund +5.6%

Recent Market Lows

9/21/01 bottom after 9/11

Dow Jones 8235
S&P 500 965
Nasdaq .1423

10/9/02

Dow Jones 7286
S&P 500 776
Nasdaq .1114

U.S. Treasury Yields

12/31/99

2-year 6.24%
10-year..6.43%

12/31/00

2-year 5.09%
10-year..5.11%

12/31/01

2-year 3.05%
10-year..5.03%

12/31/02

2-year 1.58%
10-year..3.82%

Gold

12/96 $368
12/97 $289
12/98 $288
12/99 $289
12/00 $272
12/01 $279
12/02 $347

Oil [Light Sweet]

12/99 $25.20
12/00 $26.80
12/01 $19.84
12/02 $31.20

Market Highs

AOL 1/3/00 $83
AT&T 3/29/00 $61
Apple 3/23/00 $75
Amazon.com 12/9/99 $113
Cisco 3/27/00 $82
Corning 8/30/00 $113
Dell 3/22/00 $60
EMC 9/25/00 $105
eBay 3/27/00 $127
Intel 8/28/00 $76
JDS Uniphase 3/7/00 $153
Lucent 12/29/99 $74
Microsoft 12/30/99 $120
Nortel 7/25/00 $89
Oracle 9/1/00 $46
Sun Micro 9/1/00 $65
Yahoo 1/4/00 $250

---

Wall Street History will return next week.

Brian Trumbore