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Wall Street History
https://www.gofundme.com/s3h2w8
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02/21/2003
Bull / Bear Readings
It’s been over a year since I wrote anything about the “Investors
Intelligence” survey of over 100 financial newsletter writers that
is released weekly by what is now called Chartcraft.
Historically, it has been one of the many devices that strategists
use to gauge market sentiment and is typically viewed as a
contrarian indicator, i.e., a high bullish reading may mean rough
sledding ahead (an excess of optimism), while a high number of
bears may signal that we are near a market bottom (too much
pessimism…everyone who wanted to sell already has).
The survey is released on Wednesday and represents the
accumulation of data from the prior 7-day period, so there is a
lag time involved, especially in the days when it was published
in Barron’s. Alas, the holders of the data wised up and began
charging for it, so your dear editor coughed up $295 to help keep
you informed. [I list the bull / bear readings in my “Week in
Review” column.]
Of course a big reason why I have written little of the survey
over the past year is it’s been largely meaningless, with little
variation week to week, save for the market slide last October,
which proved to be a good short-term buying point.
But recently the figures have begun to move a bit and next week
we’ll explore the trends of the past few years. For today, though,
I thought we’d go back to the period prior to, and after, the first
Gulf War, with some selected dates as our guideposts.
[In order to avoid browser issues the format may appear a little
different, but that makes it easier on all.]
Date……..Bulls….Bears….Dow Jones
5/4/90……33.3….49.6……..2710
6/8/90……47.8….35.4……..2862
7/27/90…..49.6….34.1……..2898…week before, Dow hit 2999
8/10/90…..37.6….45.6……..2716…invasion of Kuwait, 8/2
9/21/90…..27.9….55.7……..2512
10/12/90…32.2….53.7……..2398…market bottom for cycle
12/7/90…..41.4….50.0……..2590
1/11/91…..39.8….46.6……..2501…uncertainty
1/18/91…..34.5….52.1……..2646…bombing starts 1/17
2/15/91…..51.3….36.1……..2934…ground war begins 2/24
3/1/91……58.6….29.3……..2909…euphoria, Bush at 90%
6/14/91…..38.8….28.4……..3000…reality setting in
12/6/91…..36.9….39.7……..2886
1/24/92…..60.0….19.1……..3232…pickup in bulls on rally
7/3/92……35.3….31.9……..3330…economic concerns
11/6/92…..45.1….31.0……..3240…election week
6/10/94…..25.2….51.3……..3773…just jumping ahead
12/9/94…..33.1….59.1……..3691…good ‘buy’ point
2/9/96……53.8….29.4……..5541
The people who do the Investors Intelligence survey say that a
normal bull / bear ratio is 45/35. You really need numbers
significantly in excess of 50 or below 30 before most of us take
notice.
Of course with the pending action in Iraq, part II, perhaps history
can be our guide, though admittedly there are far more ancillary
issues, like a huge U.S. presence remaining in the country post-
Saddam, than there were back in 1990-91.
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Next week…1996 to the present.
Brian Trumbore
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