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04/18/2003

Just the Facts

I thought wed take a break for a while from the historical essays
and look at some numbers, especially since I just shelled out big
bucks for the 2003 Ibbotson Associates Yearbook, from which all
of the following is culled.

For the period 1926-2002, Annual Total Returns
[Geometric mean]

Large Company Stocks (S&P 500) 10.2%

Small Company Stocks . .12.1%

Long-Term Corporate Bonds.. .5.9%

Long-Term Government Bonds.. .5.5%

Intermediate-Term Govt. Bonds ..5.4%

U.S. Treasury Bills ...3.8%

Inflation 3.1%

Notes:

Small Co. stocks have been measured using various indices over
the years, including most recently the Dimensional Fund
Advisors Micro Cap Fund.

Long-Term Corporates: measured by the Salomon Brothers
Long-Term High-Grade Corporate Bond Index.

Long-Term Governments: a one-bond portfolio consisting of the
20-year Treasury.

Intermediate-Term Governments: a one-bond portfolio consisting
of the 5-year Treasury.

U.S. Treasury Bills: a one-bill portfolio of 30 days.

Inflation is measured by the Consumer Price Index.

---

Compound Annual Rates of Return by Decade

.60s .70s ..80s .90s .00s 93-02

Large Caps .7.8....5.9....17.5....18.2....-14.6.....9.3*

Small Caps...15.5...11.5...15.8 15.1 ..0.9 .11.6

Inter. Govts 3.5 .7.0 11.9 .7.2 .11.0 ..7.3

T-Bills 3.9 .6.3 ..8.9 .4.9 ..3.8 ...4.4

Inflation ..2.5 .7.4 ..5.1 .2.9 .2.4 2.5

*Returns on the S&P 500 for the period 1993-2002

1993 10.0
1994 .1.3
1995 37.4
1996 23.1
1997 33.4
1998 28.6
1999 21.0
2000 -9.1
2001..-11.9
2002..-22.1

Tidbits

--The last time the CPI was over 3.4% for a single year was 1990. [1987-1990 4.4%-6.1% each year.]

--Ah, the importance of dividends in the old days, like 1975-85, when dividends on the S&P 500 contributed 4.3%-5.7%, annually, of the total return on the index.

More next week, including some figures on Growth vs. Value.

Brian Trumbore






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-04/18/2003-      
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Wall Street History

04/18/2003

Just the Facts

I thought wed take a break for a while from the historical essays
and look at some numbers, especially since I just shelled out big
bucks for the 2003 Ibbotson Associates Yearbook, from which all
of the following is culled.

For the period 1926-2002, Annual Total Returns
[Geometric mean]

Large Company Stocks (S&P 500) 10.2%

Small Company Stocks . .12.1%

Long-Term Corporate Bonds.. .5.9%

Long-Term Government Bonds.. .5.5%

Intermediate-Term Govt. Bonds ..5.4%

U.S. Treasury Bills ...3.8%

Inflation 3.1%

Notes:

Small Co. stocks have been measured using various indices over
the years, including most recently the Dimensional Fund
Advisors Micro Cap Fund.

Long-Term Corporates: measured by the Salomon Brothers
Long-Term High-Grade Corporate Bond Index.

Long-Term Governments: a one-bond portfolio consisting of the
20-year Treasury.

Intermediate-Term Governments: a one-bond portfolio consisting
of the 5-year Treasury.

U.S. Treasury Bills: a one-bill portfolio of 30 days.

Inflation is measured by the Consumer Price Index.

---

Compound Annual Rates of Return by Decade

.60s .70s ..80s .90s .00s 93-02

Large Caps .7.8....5.9....17.5....18.2....-14.6.....9.3*

Small Caps...15.5...11.5...15.8 15.1 ..0.9 .11.6

Inter. Govts 3.5 .7.0 11.9 .7.2 .11.0 ..7.3

T-Bills 3.9 .6.3 ..8.9 .4.9 ..3.8 ...4.4

Inflation ..2.5 .7.4 ..5.1 .2.9 .2.4 2.5

*Returns on the S&P 500 for the period 1993-2002

1993 10.0
1994 .1.3
1995 37.4
1996 23.1
1997 33.4
1998 28.6
1999 21.0
2000 -9.1
2001..-11.9
2002..-22.1

Tidbits

--The last time the CPI was over 3.4% for a single year was 1990. [1987-1990 4.4%-6.1% each year.]

--Ah, the importance of dividends in the old days, like 1975-85, when dividends on the S&P 500 contributed 4.3%-5.7%, annually, of the total return on the index.

More next week, including some figures on Growth vs. Value.

Brian Trumbore