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Wall Street History
https://www.gofundme.com/s3h2w8
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01/02/2004
Days of the Week
Just a few miscellaneous items, as 2003 winds down. Hope you
all had a super prosperous year in the markets. I was far too
conservative, myself, and significantly underperformed in my
own portfolio. But I did well from 2000-2002, so I’m really not
complaining.
The following is gleaned from both my own data as well as that
from the “Stock Trader’s Almanac: 2004” by Yale Hirsch &
Jeffrey A. Hirsch.
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January can be a most volatile month, at least recent history
reveals this. For example:
January 2000
The Dow Jones had finished up 1999 at 11497. The first five
days of 2000 then witnessed the following point moves.
Day One ... -139
Day Two .. -359
Day Three +124
Day Four . +130
Day Five .. +269
Of course on January 14, 2000, the Dow hit its all-time high
mark of 11722.
January 2003
Dow Jones finished up 2002 at 8341. Then, of the 21 trading
days in 1/03, 12 had moves of 100 points or more (8 up, 4 down),
though the index finished down for the month to 8053.
Days of the Week
According to the “Stock Trader’s Almanac,” for the period June
1952 – December 1989, Monday was far and away the worst day
of the week, up only 44.5% of the time. [S&P 500] Fridays
were the best, up 57.6%.
But then we went into a major reversal of the pattern from
January 1990-May 2003.
Monday – up 54.3% of the time
Tuesday – up 49.2%
Wednesday – up 52.1%
Thursday – up 49.0%
Friday – up 54.2%
Overall, June 1952-May 2003
[Again, S&P 500]
Monday – up 47.1%
Tuesday – up 50.8%
Wednesday – up 55.9%
Thursday – up 52.0%
Friday – up 56.6%
Nasdaq had its inception in 1971. These patterns are interesting.
1971-89
Monday – up 40.9% of the time
Tuesday – up 51.2%
Wednesday – up 62.6%
Thursday – up 63.8%
Friday – up 67.2% [Oh, Happy Day ..]
1990-May 2003
Monday – up 51.9%
Tuesday – up 51.6%
Wednesday – up 57.5%
Thursday – up 55.7%
Friday – up 56.3%
Overall, 1971-May 2003
Monday – up 45.3% of the time
Tuesday – up 51.1%
Wednesday – up 61.3%
Thursday – up 60.5%
Friday – up 62.8%
2003 Tidbits
The market was up 60% of the time on Mondays as measured by
the S&P 500. [Sorry, that’s the only day I checked.]
The best week for the Nasdaq was 3/17-3/21, up 6.1%, which is
not even in the Nasdaq’s top twenty percentage gains since 1971.
The worst week for Nasdaq was 9/21-9/26, off 6.0%
The best week for the Dow Jones was also 3/17-3/21 (the start of
the war), up 8.4%...the 4th best weekly percentage gain since
1950.
The worst week for the Dow was 1/20-1/24, off 5.3%.
In fact for the Dow Jones, 2003 was best epitomized by total lack
of volatility. In only 5 weeks did the index advance or decline
3% or more. [Only once since the week ending May 2nd.] As
you would expect this was not the case with Nasdaq which had
17 such weeks.
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Next week we return with a full statistical review, certainly more
than you’ll find anywhere else in one place.
Brian Trumbore
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