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Wall Street History
https://www.gofundme.com/s3h2w8
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01/09/2004
2003 and More
As part of the effort to wrap up 2003, while adding data to past
archives, I present the following.
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Dow Jones Industrial Average
9/3/29 381.17
7/8/32 41.22 (all-time low)
11/23/54 382.74 yes, it took a few years to get back to the
’29 mark. Personally, I would equate this action to that of the
Nasdaq today and the Crash of 2000-2002. How long will it take
to get back to the old high?
All-time market highs
Dow Jones 1/14/00 11722
S&P 500 3/24/00 1527
Nasdaq 3/10/00 5048 [Inception was 1971]
12/31/99
Dow Jones 11497
S&P 500 1469
Nasdaq 4069
12/31/03
Dow Jones 10453
S&P 500 1111
Nasdaq 2003
S&P 500 (Total Return including dividends)
1995 +37.4
1996 +23.1
1997 +33.4
1998 +28.6
1999 +21.0
2000 -9.1
2001 -11.9
2002 -22.1
2003 +28.7
Nasdaq
1995 +39.9
1996 +22.7
1997 +21.6
1998 +39.6
1999 +85.6
2000 -39.3
2001 -21.1
2002 -31.5
2003 +50.0
*The above for Nasdaq is really incredible. 9 straight years of
20% + or – volatility. In my “Week in Review” column I said
the Nasdaq would finish down 12% in 2004. I wish I had looked
at this before I wrote that. It would certainly be a departure from
the past.
Interest Rates U.S. Treasury Yields
Date .2-year .10-year
12/31/99 6.24 .6.43
6/13/03 ..1.01 .3.10 historic lows in yield
12/31/03 1.82 .4.25
Gold
12/96 $368
12/97 $289
12/98 $288
12/99 $289
12/00 $272
12/01 $279
12/02 $347
12/03 $416
Oil (Light Sweet Crude)
12/99 $25.20
12/00 $26.80
12/01 $19.84
12/02 $31.20
12/03 $32.52
Terrorism
9/21/01 bottom after 9/11
Dow Jones 8235
S&P 500 965
Nasdaq 1423
And I present the following key market bottoms, gleaned from
my own data, as a comparison between the lows of the first Gulf
War and Gulf War II.
10/11/90 in the midst of the buildup.
Dow Jones 2365 trailing p/e 11.6, div. yield 4.2%
S&P 500 295 trailing p/e 14.1
Nasdaq 325
Bull / Bear readings: 32.2% / 53.7% [Source: Investors
Intelligence a contrarian indicator]
10/9/02 in the midst of the buildup (again)
Dow Jones 7286 trailing p/e 20.5, div. yield 2.4%
S&P 500 776 trailing p/e 31.3
Nasdaq 1114
Bull / Bear readings: 31.0 / 39.1 interesting another good
contrarian call.
*The difference in these two market bottoms in terms of
valuation is striking. Granted, in ’90 we were about to enter a
recession, while in ’02 we were emerging from a mild one, but if
you wanted to weigh all the evidence before making a market
forecast, you’d have to add this into the equation.
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The above was gleaned from both Ibbotson Associates and my
own data, which I have painstakingly kept on parchment since
March 1990. Seriously. Steal my briefcase and you steal my
soul.
Next “Wall Street History” 1/16.
Brian Trumbore
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