Wall Street History

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Wall Street History

01/16/2004

The Super Bowl and the Market

Once again, it’s time for our look at the Super Bowl and the
market. Until the past 5-6 years, the adage was that if a team
from the old NFL won the contest (including AFC entries like
the Pittsburgh Steelers a former NFL team before the merger of
the two leagues), then the stock market would rise. But Denver’s
two victories in 1998 and 1999 put that theory to rest (it being a
traditional AFC squad), as stocks rose 20%+ each year thereafter.

Bottom line, though, the market, as measured by the total return
on the S&P 500, has had 9 down years out of the 37 in which
there has been a Super Bowl and AFC teams were victors in 7 of
them. Ergo, if you’re long the market, go Philadelphia or
Carolina.

Note: I included 1966 just to give you a sense of the environment
before the games started.

Results and the *total return of the S&P 500.

1966 .No game -10.1%

1967 Green Bay 35 Kansas City 10 .. +24.0%

1968 Green Bay 33 Oakland 14 +11.1%

1969 New York Jets 16 Baltimore 7 . -8.5%

1970 Kansas City 23 Minnesota 7 . +4.0%

1971 Baltimore 16 Dallas 13 +14.3%

1972 Dallas 24 Miami 3 ... +19.0%

1973 Miami 14 Washington 7 .. -14.7%

1974 Miami 24 Minnesota 7 .... -26.5%

1975 Pittsburgh 16 Minnesota 6 .. +37.2%

1976 Pittsburgh 21 Dallas 17 .. +23.8%

1977 Oakland 32 Minnesota 14 -7.2%

1978 Dallas 27 Denver 10 +6.6%

1979 Pittsburgh 35 Dallas 31 +18.4%

1980 Pittsburgh 31 L.A. Rams 19 . +32.4%

1981 Oakland 27 Philadelphia 10 . -4.9%

1982 San Francisco 26 Cincinnati 21 +21.4%

1983 Washington 27 Miami 17 . +22.5%

1984 L.A. Raiders 38 Washington 9 . +6.3%

1985 San Francisco 38 Miami 16 .. +32.2%

1986 Chicago 46 New England 10 .... +18.5%

1987 N.Y. Giants 39 Denver 20 . +5.2%

1988 Washington 42 Denver 10 +16.8%

1989 San Francisco 20 Cincinnati 16 +31.5%

1990 San Francisco 55 Denver 10 . -3.2%

1991 N.Y. Giants 20 Buffalo 19 +30.6%

1992 Washington 37 Buffalo 24 +7.7%

1993 Dallas 52 Buffalo 17 +10.0%

1994 Dallas 30 Buffalo 13 . +1.3%

1995 San Francisco 49 San Diego 26 +37.4%

1996 Dallas 27 Pittsburgh 17 +23.1%

1997 Green Bay 35 New England 21 +33.4%

1998 Denver 31 Green Bay 24 .. +28.6%

1999 Denver 34 Atlanta 19 ... +21.0%

2000 St. Louis 23 Tennessee 16 -9.1%

2001 Baltimore 34 N.Y. Giants 7 . -11.9%

2002 New England 20 St. Louis 17 .. -22.1%

2003 Tampa Bay 48 Oakland 21 .. +28.7%

And now your “exclusive” conclusions from the editor, new for
2004.

Playing off the popular “over / under” bets that many find so
compelling, check this out.

In each of the 9 years that the S&P 500 finished down, the loser
of the Super Bowl scored fewer than 20 points (17 or less,
specifically), while in each of the 8 years in which the loser
scored more than 20 points, the market finished up.

So, this is where investors should be focusing. Loser over 20,
market is guaranteed to rise ahem. Loser under 20, odds are
31% the market will finish lower. [9 down years in the 29 in
which the loser scored less than 20.]

Of course this is all ridiculous, but it’s the one time a year I have
the opportunity to be so.

And remember, as always, bet with your head not over it.

Wall Street History will return January 23.

Brian Trumbore

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