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07/09/2004

Gotham's Economy...and other stuff

The July 5, 2004 edition of Crain’s New York Business has
hundreds of statistics on the New York marketplace, so, since
Wall Street is a major component of the overall economy here I
thought a few of the following tidbits were both interesting and
pertinent as the region continues its comeback from 9/11, along
with dealing with what I personally believe is a real estate bubble.

[Unless otherwise noted, the data points represent the latest
available for that category and ‘New York City’ (NYC) denotes
all five boroughs.]

--Manhattan: personal income was down 5.5% for the period
2000-2002.

--New York City: Estimated average annual salaries

2003 $59,906
2004 $63,110 (proj.) +5.3%

--Employment

Job categories posting the biggest net gains in NYC, 1993-2003

Retail trade +34,400
Employment services +27,200
Colleges and universities +25,900

Job categories posting the biggest net drops in NYC, 1993-2003

Apparel manufacturing -48,400
Government -30,900
Nondepository credit intermediation -19,400

September 11 Impact

Job changes in NYC since Aug. 31, 2001 thru March 30, 2004

Total -164,000 [‘Educational and health services’ is the only
sector registering significant gains over this period.]

Jobs of the Future, projections for New York state, 2000-2010

Network and computer systems administrators +56.8%
Database administrators +54.6%
Personal and home care aides +54.3%

--Selected average wages in NYC, 2002

Total $59,461

Manufacturing $40,392
Retail trade $29,402 [furniture, electronics / appliance, clothing
stores]
Information $78,302 [publishing, broadcasting, movies,
Internet]
Finance and insurance $165,806
Real estate $46,763
Government $47,581

--NYC personal income tax collections, in millions of dollars

2001 $5,331
2002 $4,019
2003 $3,923
2004 $5,240 (proj.)

--Tax Burdens by State

New York is #1 at 12.9%, taking into account all state and local
taxes as a percentage of income. Maine is #2, 12.3%.

--The Melting Pot

Race or ethnicity of New York City residents in 2002

White 34.1%
Hispanic / Latino 28.3%
Black / African-American 24.6%
Asian 11.2%

--Welcome to America

U.S. cities with the largest estimated proportions of foreign-born
residents in 2002

Miami 60.6%
Santa Ana 48.4%
Los Angeles 41.3%
Anaheim 40.3%
San Francisco 36.7%
San Jose 36.5%
New York City 36.0%

--New York City’s Political Landscape

[Estimates]

Registered Republicans 1999: 560,000 2003: 520,000
Registered Democrats ...1999: 2,800,000 2003: 2,700,000

--Health Insurance Premiums

Family coverage

New York state – 2001: $662...2003: $801
United States – 2001: $588...2003: $756

--Average Hospital Stay (lots of complaints on this issue)

In largest U.S. cities in 2002, in days, percent change since 1990

New York City -28.9%
Los Angeles -1.8%
Philadelphia -28.6%
Houston -14.6%
U.S. average -20.8%

--Leading Causes of Mortality

Number of deaths in New York City in 2002

Heart disease 41.1% of deaths
Cancer 23.0%
Influenza and pneumonia 4.2%
Cerebrovascular disease 3.1%
HIV 2.9%
Diabetes mellitus 2.9%

[HIV peaked in 1994 at 7,102 deaths; in 2002 the figure was 1,712.]

--Leading Trade Partners

Containerized imports through NY/NJ ports, 2002-2003

China +17.6% [China is also far and away #1 in total tonnage]
India +13.1%
Brazil +12.0%

Netherlands -10.6% [Biggest drop among top ten in tonnage.]

Containerized exports through NY/NJ ports, 2002-2003

China +40.9%
Japan +21.8%

India -15.8%
South Korea -26.4%

*The leading containerized import sector through NY/NJ ports in
2003 in terms of metric tons is beverages. Plastic is #2, furniture
and bedding #3.

**The leading containerized export sector is wood pulp, #2
plastic, #3 machinery.

--Getting Sued

NYC paid out $585 million in settlements and judgments in
2003.

States with the highest percentage of personal injury awards of
$1 million or more, 1996-2002

New York 27%
Louisiana 22%
New Jersey 22%
Massachusetts 21%
Pennsylvania 20%
U.S. average 12%

--Projected office vacancy rate in Manhattan for 2004 12.5%

--Tourism / Entertainment

Visitors to NYC in 2004 are estimated to be 38.7 million.

Visitor spending in 2004 is projected to be $15.1 billion. This is
an increase from 2002’s bottom of $14 billion, but still a
significant decline from 2000’s $17 billion.

And by the way, for the period 2001-2002, here are a few
selected countries

Germany -11.1% in visitors to NYC
France -29.5%
Italy -13.0%
United Kingdom -2.1%

But

Mexico +12.4%
Australia +41.1%!!

--And finally, I save the best for last

Manhattan Apartment Prices

Upper West Side (57th St. to 116th St., Central Park West to Hudson River)

Average 1999: $496,269 2003: $810,718
Studio 1999: $135,015 2003: $240,035
Two-bedroom 1999: $621,042 2003: $888,483

Upper East Side (59th St. to 96th St., East River to Fifth Avenue)

Average 1999: $692,229 2003: $1,015,778
Studio 1999: $117,727 2003: $235,088
Two-bedroom 1999: $678,080 2003: $957,794

Notes: I imagine a lot of you have never seen a Manhattan
‘studio’ apartment. Trust me, you wouldn’t believe how small it
is. The average four-bedroom and up on the Upper West Side is
now in excess of $5.3 million; on the Upper East Side, $5.4
million.

Sources: New York City Office of Management and Budget,
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, New York State Department of
Labor, Tax Foundation, The New York Stat (a publication of
Jones Lang LaSalle), U.S. Census Bureau, New York State
Board of Elections, Commonwealth Fund / Health Research and
Educational Trust, Greater New York Hospital Association, Port
Authority of NY & NJ, NYC Bureau of Vital Statistics, NYC
Comptroller, Jury Verdict Research Series, NYC & Company,
Douglas Elliman Manhattan Market Report prepared by Miller
Samuel Inc.

---

Wall Street History will return July 16.

Brian Trumbore






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-07/09/2004-      
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Wall Street History

07/09/2004

Gotham's Economy...and other stuff

The July 5, 2004 edition of Crain’s New York Business has
hundreds of statistics on the New York marketplace, so, since
Wall Street is a major component of the overall economy here I
thought a few of the following tidbits were both interesting and
pertinent as the region continues its comeback from 9/11, along
with dealing with what I personally believe is a real estate bubble.

[Unless otherwise noted, the data points represent the latest
available for that category and ‘New York City’ (NYC) denotes
all five boroughs.]

--Manhattan: personal income was down 5.5% for the period
2000-2002.

--New York City: Estimated average annual salaries

2003 $59,906
2004 $63,110 (proj.) +5.3%

--Employment

Job categories posting the biggest net gains in NYC, 1993-2003

Retail trade +34,400
Employment services +27,200
Colleges and universities +25,900

Job categories posting the biggest net drops in NYC, 1993-2003

Apparel manufacturing -48,400
Government -30,900
Nondepository credit intermediation -19,400

September 11 Impact

Job changes in NYC since Aug. 31, 2001 thru March 30, 2004

Total -164,000 [‘Educational and health services’ is the only
sector registering significant gains over this period.]

Jobs of the Future, projections for New York state, 2000-2010

Network and computer systems administrators +56.8%
Database administrators +54.6%
Personal and home care aides +54.3%

--Selected average wages in NYC, 2002

Total $59,461

Manufacturing $40,392
Retail trade $29,402 [furniture, electronics / appliance, clothing
stores]
Information $78,302 [publishing, broadcasting, movies,
Internet]
Finance and insurance $165,806
Real estate $46,763
Government $47,581

--NYC personal income tax collections, in millions of dollars

2001 $5,331
2002 $4,019
2003 $3,923
2004 $5,240 (proj.)

--Tax Burdens by State

New York is #1 at 12.9%, taking into account all state and local
taxes as a percentage of income. Maine is #2, 12.3%.

--The Melting Pot

Race or ethnicity of New York City residents in 2002

White 34.1%
Hispanic / Latino 28.3%
Black / African-American 24.6%
Asian 11.2%

--Welcome to America

U.S. cities with the largest estimated proportions of foreign-born
residents in 2002

Miami 60.6%
Santa Ana 48.4%
Los Angeles 41.3%
Anaheim 40.3%
San Francisco 36.7%
San Jose 36.5%
New York City 36.0%

--New York City’s Political Landscape

[Estimates]

Registered Republicans 1999: 560,000 2003: 520,000
Registered Democrats ...1999: 2,800,000 2003: 2,700,000

--Health Insurance Premiums

Family coverage

New York state – 2001: $662...2003: $801
United States – 2001: $588...2003: $756

--Average Hospital Stay (lots of complaints on this issue)

In largest U.S. cities in 2002, in days, percent change since 1990

New York City -28.9%
Los Angeles -1.8%
Philadelphia -28.6%
Houston -14.6%
U.S. average -20.8%

--Leading Causes of Mortality

Number of deaths in New York City in 2002

Heart disease 41.1% of deaths
Cancer 23.0%
Influenza and pneumonia 4.2%
Cerebrovascular disease 3.1%
HIV 2.9%
Diabetes mellitus 2.9%

[HIV peaked in 1994 at 7,102 deaths; in 2002 the figure was 1,712.]

--Leading Trade Partners

Containerized imports through NY/NJ ports, 2002-2003

China +17.6% [China is also far and away #1 in total tonnage]
India +13.1%
Brazil +12.0%

Netherlands -10.6% [Biggest drop among top ten in tonnage.]

Containerized exports through NY/NJ ports, 2002-2003

China +40.9%
Japan +21.8%

India -15.8%
South Korea -26.4%

*The leading containerized import sector through NY/NJ ports in
2003 in terms of metric tons is beverages. Plastic is #2, furniture
and bedding #3.

**The leading containerized export sector is wood pulp, #2
plastic, #3 machinery.

--Getting Sued

NYC paid out $585 million in settlements and judgments in
2003.

States with the highest percentage of personal injury awards of
$1 million or more, 1996-2002

New York 27%
Louisiana 22%
New Jersey 22%
Massachusetts 21%
Pennsylvania 20%
U.S. average 12%

--Projected office vacancy rate in Manhattan for 2004 12.5%

--Tourism / Entertainment

Visitors to NYC in 2004 are estimated to be 38.7 million.

Visitor spending in 2004 is projected to be $15.1 billion. This is
an increase from 2002’s bottom of $14 billion, but still a
significant decline from 2000’s $17 billion.

And by the way, for the period 2001-2002, here are a few
selected countries

Germany -11.1% in visitors to NYC
France -29.5%
Italy -13.0%
United Kingdom -2.1%

But

Mexico +12.4%
Australia +41.1%!!

--And finally, I save the best for last

Manhattan Apartment Prices

Upper West Side (57th St. to 116th St., Central Park West to Hudson River)

Average 1999: $496,269 2003: $810,718
Studio 1999: $135,015 2003: $240,035
Two-bedroom 1999: $621,042 2003: $888,483

Upper East Side (59th St. to 96th St., East River to Fifth Avenue)

Average 1999: $692,229 2003: $1,015,778
Studio 1999: $117,727 2003: $235,088
Two-bedroom 1999: $678,080 2003: $957,794

Notes: I imagine a lot of you have never seen a Manhattan
‘studio’ apartment. Trust me, you wouldn’t believe how small it
is. The average four-bedroom and up on the Upper West Side is
now in excess of $5.3 million; on the Upper East Side, $5.4
million.

Sources: New York City Office of Management and Budget,
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, New York State Department of
Labor, Tax Foundation, The New York Stat (a publication of
Jones Lang LaSalle), U.S. Census Bureau, New York State
Board of Elections, Commonwealth Fund / Health Research and
Educational Trust, Greater New York Hospital Association, Port
Authority of NY & NJ, NYC Bureau of Vital Statistics, NYC
Comptroller, Jury Verdict Research Series, NYC & Company,
Douglas Elliman Manhattan Market Report prepared by Miller
Samuel Inc.

---

Wall Street History will return July 16.

Brian Trumbore