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01/06/2006

The January Barometer

An old saying is that as January goes, so goes the year. And
according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, since 1950 the January
indicator has only five major errors for a 90.9% accuracy ratio.
“Vietnam affected 1966 and 1968; 1982 saw the start of a major
bull market in August; 9/11 affected performance in 2001; and
the anticipation of military action in Iraq held down the market in
January 2003.”

If you include the six flat years, the barometer’s accuracy ratio is
80% (the more common measurement).

So I thought we’d just look at the past six years, specifically,
including two of the major mistakes; while throwing in gold and
oil just for the heck of it.

S&P 500 Return for the year* ..Gold .Oil

12/31/99 1469 ..$289 $25.20
1/31/00 ..1394 -5.1%.......-9.1

12/31/00 1320 272 .26.80
1/31/01 ..1366 +3.5%......-11.9

12/31/01 1148 279 .19.84
1/31/02 ..1130 -1.6 ..-22.1

12/31/02 .879 .347 ..31.20
1/31/03 ...855 .-2.7 ..+28.7

12/31/03 1111 416 ..32.52
1/31/04 ..1131 +1.7 .+10.9

12/31/04 1211 438 ..43.45
1/31/05 ..1181 -2.5 ..+4.9

12/31/05 1248 519 ..61.04

*For the yearly return, I include dividends. Stock Trader’s
Almanac does not.

The January barometer is but another tool, albeit an important
one particularly when the geopolitical scene is sanguine.
However, we have a far from sanguine environment today, I
would argue.

Sources: “2006 Stock Trader’s Almanac,” Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey
A. Hirsch and my own archives for the gold and oil data.

Wall Street History returns next week.

Brian Trumbore



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Wall Street History

01/06/2006

The January Barometer

An old saying is that as January goes, so goes the year. And
according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, since 1950 the January
indicator has only five major errors for a 90.9% accuracy ratio.
“Vietnam affected 1966 and 1968; 1982 saw the start of a major
bull market in August; 9/11 affected performance in 2001; and
the anticipation of military action in Iraq held down the market in
January 2003.”

If you include the six flat years, the barometer’s accuracy ratio is
80% (the more common measurement).

So I thought we’d just look at the past six years, specifically,
including two of the major mistakes; while throwing in gold and
oil just for the heck of it.

S&P 500 Return for the year* ..Gold .Oil

12/31/99 1469 ..$289 $25.20
1/31/00 ..1394 -5.1%.......-9.1

12/31/00 1320 272 .26.80
1/31/01 ..1366 +3.5%......-11.9

12/31/01 1148 279 .19.84
1/31/02 ..1130 -1.6 ..-22.1

12/31/02 .879 .347 ..31.20
1/31/03 ...855 .-2.7 ..+28.7

12/31/03 1111 416 ..32.52
1/31/04 ..1131 +1.7 .+10.9

12/31/04 1211 438 ..43.45
1/31/05 ..1181 -2.5 ..+4.9

12/31/05 1248 519 ..61.04

*For the yearly return, I include dividends. Stock Trader’s
Almanac does not.

The January barometer is but another tool, albeit an important
one particularly when the geopolitical scene is sanguine.
However, we have a far from sanguine environment today, I
would argue.

Sources: “2006 Stock Trader’s Almanac,” Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey
A. Hirsch and my own archives for the gold and oil data.

Wall Street History returns next week.

Brian Trumbore