08/29/2008
Election Years
*Bull/bear readings a/o 9/3...37.8/40.0 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
Since January 1950, September has been the worst month for equities, as measured by the S&P 500, off an average 0.6%, while October, despite its reputation for upheaval, has a solid average return of 0.9%.
But what happens during election years? See below. [S&P 500 returns, not including dividends.]
Sept. Oct. Full year
1952 -2.0 -0.1 +11.8
1956 -4.5 +0.5 +2.6
1960 -6.0 -0.2 -3.0
1964 +2.9 +0.8 +13.0
1968 +3.9 +0.7 +7.7
1972 -0.5 +0.9 +15.6
1976 +2.3 -2.2 +19.1
1980 +2.5 +1.6 +25.8
1984 -0.3 -0.01 +1.4
1988 +4.0 +2.6 +12.4
1992 +0.9 +0.2 +4.5
1996 +5.4 +2.6 +20.3
2000 -5.3 -0.5 -10.1
2004 +0.9 +1.4 +9.0
Source: 2008 Stock Trader’s Almanac, Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Yale Hirsch
Wall Street History returns Sept. 5.
Brian Trumbore
