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11/05/1999

The Market and Election/ Post-Election Years

Soon you will begin to see some articles detailing market
performance in Presidential election years. So I thought why not
scoop everyone and do it early as another free service of S&N?

As you can quickly observe, the market, as measured by the S&P
500, has not had a down election year since 1940. When it
comes to the first year of a new term, however, the performance
is decidedly mixed, excluding the 1982-1999 bull market.

Year Prez Cong. S&P Year Prez Cong. S&P

2000 D R ----- 2001 ----- ----- -----
1996 D R +23.1 1997 D R +33.4
1992 R D +07.7 1993 D D +10.0
1988 R D +16.8 1989 R D +31.5
1984 R S +06.3 1985 R S +32.2
1980 D D +32.4 1981 R S -04.9
1976 R D +23.8 1977 D D -07.2
1972 R D +19.0 1973 R D -14.7
1968 D D +11.1 1969 R D -08.5
1964 D D +16.5 1965 D D +12.5
1960 R D +00.5 1961 D D +26.9
1956 R D +06.6 1957 R D -10.8
1952 D D +18.4 1953 R R -01.0
1948 D R +05.5 1949 D D +18.8
1944 D D +19.8 1945 D D +36.4
1940 D D -09.8 1941 D D -11.6
1936 D D +33.9 1937 D D -35.0
1932 R R -08.2 1933 D D +54.0
1928 R R +43.6 1929 R R -08.4

*S means Democratic House, Republican Senate.

From 1982 through 1998, the S&P has had only one down year,
1990 (-3.2%). Taking out this period of time, between 1928 and
1981 (54 years), the S&P declined 19 years, or 35.2% of the
time. In contrast, 9 of the 14 post-election years between 1929
and 1981 were negative, 64.3%.

Sources: Ibbotson Associates; "The Presidents," by Henry Graff.

Brian Trumbore

Special Note: The above table is best viewed using Internet Explorer,
not Netscape. If you only have Netscape you can try the following:

1) Open your "Preferences" dialogue box (located under the EDIT
menu)and select FONTS.

2) In the upper portion of the font dialogue box, switch your
fixed width font to "Courier New."

3) In the lower portion of the same box, check off the button that
says "use my default fonts over-riding document specified fonts."

4) Click OK and reload the page.



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Wall Street History

11/05/1999

The Market and Election/ Post-Election Years

Soon you will begin to see some articles detailing market
performance in Presidential election years. So I thought why not
scoop everyone and do it early as another free service of S&N?

As you can quickly observe, the market, as measured by the S&P
500, has not had a down election year since 1940. When it
comes to the first year of a new term, however, the performance
is decidedly mixed, excluding the 1982-1999 bull market.

Year Prez Cong. S&P Year Prez Cong. S&P

2000 D R ----- 2001 ----- ----- -----
1996 D R +23.1 1997 D R +33.4
1992 R D +07.7 1993 D D +10.0
1988 R D +16.8 1989 R D +31.5
1984 R S +06.3 1985 R S +32.2
1980 D D +32.4 1981 R S -04.9
1976 R D +23.8 1977 D D -07.2
1972 R D +19.0 1973 R D -14.7
1968 D D +11.1 1969 R D -08.5
1964 D D +16.5 1965 D D +12.5
1960 R D +00.5 1961 D D +26.9
1956 R D +06.6 1957 R D -10.8
1952 D D +18.4 1953 R R -01.0
1948 D R +05.5 1949 D D +18.8
1944 D D +19.8 1945 D D +36.4
1940 D D -09.8 1941 D D -11.6
1936 D D +33.9 1937 D D -35.0
1932 R R -08.2 1933 D D +54.0
1928 R R +43.6 1929 R R -08.4

*S means Democratic House, Republican Senate.

From 1982 through 1998, the S&P has had only one down year,
1990 (-3.2%). Taking out this period of time, between 1928 and
1981 (54 years), the S&P declined 19 years, or 35.2% of the
time. In contrast, 9 of the 14 post-election years between 1929
and 1981 were negative, 64.3%.

Sources: Ibbotson Associates; "The Presidents," by Henry Graff.

Brian Trumbore

Special Note: The above table is best viewed using Internet Explorer,
not Netscape. If you only have Netscape you can try the following:

1) Open your "Preferences" dialogue box (located under the EDIT
menu)and select FONTS.

2) In the upper portion of the font dialogue box, switch your
fixed width font to "Courier New."

3) In the lower portion of the same box, check off the button that
says "use my default fonts over-riding document specified fonts."

4) Click OK and reload the page.