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11/19/1999

The Fed and the Market

With the Federal Reserve''s move on Tuesday to increase interest
rates for the third time this year, I thought it would be interesting
to piece together a table comparing past Fed moves to the
movement in the Dow Jones (the easiest index for me to get
historical daily price data). I don''t think you will find this
anywhere else. I sure as hell didn''t. When I say "piece
together," I mean piece together.

As with my recent "Election Years" table of 11/5, if you use
Netscape you may need to check out my tips at the bottom.

Key: T=Fed tightening; E=Fed easing. FFTgt=Fed Funds target
rate. [The Fed used to issue more of a formal target range, i.e.,
6.75-6.875. When there was an upward trend I chose the upper
figure, on the way down I chose the lower figure. DJ=Dow
Jones Industrial Average. [Closing price for the date listed].
CPI=Consumer Price Index, all items.

Year Date T/E FFTgt DJ CPI

1987 9/4 T 7.250 2561 4.4%
10/22 E 7.125 1950
10/28 E 7.000 1846
11/4 E 6.875 1945
1988 1/28 E 6.750 1930 4.4%
2/11 E 6.500 1961
3/29 T 6.750 1998
5/9 T 7.000 1997
5/25 T 7.250 1961
6/22 T 7.500 2152
6/30 T 7.625 2141
8/9 T 8.250 2079
11/22 T 8.375 2077
12/14 T 8.750 2134
1989 1/5 T 9.000 2190 4.6%
2/14 T 9.375 2281
2/23 T 9.625 2289
2/24 T 9.750 2245
6/6 E 9.500 2496
7/6 E 9.250 2462
7/27 E 9.000 2635
10/18 E 8.750 2643
11/6 E 8.500 2582
12/19 E 8.250 2695
1990 7/13 E 8.000 2980 6.1%
10/29 E 7.750 2430
11/13 E 7.500 2535
12/7 E 7.250 2590
12/18 E 7.000 2626
1991 1/9 E 6.750 2470 3.1%
2/1 E 6.250 2730
4/12 E 6.000 2920
4/30 E 5.750 2887
8/6 E 5.500 3027
9/13 E 5.250 2985
10/31 E 5.000 3069
11/5 E 4.750 3031
12/6 E 4.500 2886
12/20 E 4.000 2934
1992 4/9 E 3.750 3224 2.9%
7/1 E 3.250 3318
9/4 E 3.000 3281
1993 No Fed Action 2.7%
1994 2/4 T 3.250 3871 2.7%
3/22 T 3.500 3862
4/18 T 3.750 3620
5/17 T 4.250 3720
8/16 T 4.750 3786
11/15 T 5.500 3826
1995 2/1 T 6.000 3847 2.5%
7/6 E 5.750 4615
12/19 E 5.500 4802
1996 1/31 E 5.250 5395 3.3%
1997 3/25 T 5.500 6876 1.7%
1998 9/29 E 5.250 8080 1.6%
10/15 E 5.000 8299
11/17 E 4.750 8986
1999 6/30 T 5.000 10970 2.6%*
8/24 T 5.250 11283
11/16 T 5.500 10932

*Year-over-year, October.

Special Note: The above table is best viewed using Internet
Explorer, not Netscape. If you only have Netscape you can try
the following:

1) Open your "Preferences" dialogue box (located under the
EDIT menu) and select FONTS.
2) In the upper portion of the font dialogue box, switch your
fixed width font to "Courier New."
3) In the lower portion of the same box, check off the button
that says "use my default fonts over-riding document
specified fonts."
4) Click OK and reload the page.

Brian Trumbore



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-11/19/1999-      
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Wall Street History

11/19/1999

The Fed and the Market

With the Federal Reserve''s move on Tuesday to increase interest
rates for the third time this year, I thought it would be interesting
to piece together a table comparing past Fed moves to the
movement in the Dow Jones (the easiest index for me to get
historical daily price data). I don''t think you will find this
anywhere else. I sure as hell didn''t. When I say "piece
together," I mean piece together.

As with my recent "Election Years" table of 11/5, if you use
Netscape you may need to check out my tips at the bottom.

Key: T=Fed tightening; E=Fed easing. FFTgt=Fed Funds target
rate. [The Fed used to issue more of a formal target range, i.e.,
6.75-6.875. When there was an upward trend I chose the upper
figure, on the way down I chose the lower figure. DJ=Dow
Jones Industrial Average. [Closing price for the date listed].
CPI=Consumer Price Index, all items.

Year Date T/E FFTgt DJ CPI

1987 9/4 T 7.250 2561 4.4%
10/22 E 7.125 1950
10/28 E 7.000 1846
11/4 E 6.875 1945
1988 1/28 E 6.750 1930 4.4%
2/11 E 6.500 1961
3/29 T 6.750 1998
5/9 T 7.000 1997
5/25 T 7.250 1961
6/22 T 7.500 2152
6/30 T 7.625 2141
8/9 T 8.250 2079
11/22 T 8.375 2077
12/14 T 8.750 2134
1989 1/5 T 9.000 2190 4.6%
2/14 T 9.375 2281
2/23 T 9.625 2289
2/24 T 9.750 2245
6/6 E 9.500 2496
7/6 E 9.250 2462
7/27 E 9.000 2635
10/18 E 8.750 2643
11/6 E 8.500 2582
12/19 E 8.250 2695
1990 7/13 E 8.000 2980 6.1%
10/29 E 7.750 2430
11/13 E 7.500 2535
12/7 E 7.250 2590
12/18 E 7.000 2626
1991 1/9 E 6.750 2470 3.1%
2/1 E 6.250 2730
4/12 E 6.000 2920
4/30 E 5.750 2887
8/6 E 5.500 3027
9/13 E 5.250 2985
10/31 E 5.000 3069
11/5 E 4.750 3031
12/6 E 4.500 2886
12/20 E 4.000 2934
1992 4/9 E 3.750 3224 2.9%
7/1 E 3.250 3318
9/4 E 3.000 3281
1993 No Fed Action 2.7%
1994 2/4 T 3.250 3871 2.7%
3/22 T 3.500 3862
4/18 T 3.750 3620
5/17 T 4.250 3720
8/16 T 4.750 3786
11/15 T 5.500 3826
1995 2/1 T 6.000 3847 2.5%
7/6 E 5.750 4615
12/19 E 5.500 4802
1996 1/31 E 5.250 5395 3.3%
1997 3/25 T 5.500 6876 1.7%
1998 9/29 E 5.250 8080 1.6%
10/15 E 5.000 8299
11/17 E 4.750 8986
1999 6/30 T 5.000 10970 2.6%*
8/24 T 5.250 11283
11/16 T 5.500 10932

*Year-over-year, October.

Special Note: The above table is best viewed using Internet
Explorer, not Netscape. If you only have Netscape you can try
the following:

1) Open your "Preferences" dialogue box (located under the
EDIT menu) and select FONTS.
2) In the upper portion of the font dialogue box, switch your
fixed width font to "Courier New."
3) In the lower portion of the same box, check off the button
that says "use my default fonts over-riding document
specified fonts."
4) Click OK and reload the page.

Brian Trumbore