10/02/2015
October Returns
October has a reputation for being a scary month in the markets, but the fact is, for the period 1950 to April 2014, September is the worst month of the year, and as I write, 9/28, it is down in 2015 as well. But October, for all the crashes that have occurred, is actually a “bear killer.”
1950 to April 2014
S&P 500
September average percentage change -0.5%...up 29, down 34
October average percentage change +0.8%...up 38, down 26
Dow Jones
September -0.8%
October +0.5%
For the S&P, October 1987 was the worst, -21.8%. Oct. 1974 the best, +16.3%.
For the Dow, October 1987 was the worst, -23.2%. Oct. 1982 the best, +10.7%.
And you all know October ends the “worst six months of the year” of market lore.
But for the record, S&P 500 October returns last 15 years:
2000 -0.5%
2001 +1.8%
2002 +8.6%
2003 +5.5%
2004 +1.4%
2005 -1.8%
2006 +3.2%
2007 +1.5%
2008 -16.9%
2009 -2.0%
2010 +3.7%
2011 +10.8%
2012 -2.0%
2013 +4.5%
2014 +2.3%
Sources: “2015 Stock Trader’s Almanac, edited by Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Yale Hirsch”*; StocksandNews.com database.
*The Stock Trader’s Almanac is published early in the year, thus in this instance the data in most cases just goes back to April 2014. For October 2014 info, I used my own figures.
Wall Street History will return in two weeks.
Brian Trumbore
