04/15/2016
The Market in Election Years
I keep forgetting to just note for the archives the market returns in recent election years. 2000 saw the bursting of the tech bubble, and 2008 was the height of the financial crisis. In theory, election years should be positive in nature because government spending is up as incumbents seek to juice their odds for reelection. Spending is indeed up in 2016 after a recent stretch of austerity in the federal budget. But geopolitics and turmoil in global markets can upset the apple cart.
Returns [S&P 500 and Nasdaq, percent change]
S&P NAS
2012 (D)... 13.4.... 15.9
2008 (R)... -38.5... -40.5
2004 (R)... 9.0... 8.6
2000 (D)... -10.1... -39.3
1996 (D)... 20.3... 22.7
1992 (R)... 4.5... 15.5
1988 (R)... 12.4... 15.4
1984 (R)... 1.4... -11.2
1980 (D)... 25.8... 33.9
1976 (R)... 19.1... 26.1
1972 (R)... 15.6... 17.2
Source: Stock Trader’s Almanac, edited by Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Yale Hirsch
Wall Street History will return in a few weeks.
Brian Trumbore
