Week in Review

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Week in Review

12/18/2021

For the week 12/13-12/17

[Posted 9:00 PM ET, Friday]

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Special thanks to Bob C. for his ongoing support.

Edition 1,183

If you live in the New York area, which was first swamped by Covid in March 2020, you’re beginning to get the same feeling you had back then as cases mount rapidly both here, and now across the country, and as theaters shut and professional and college sports are hit all over again.

A man I respect, Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, is getting a lot of play for making a comment on CNN Thursday that the coronavirus will hit millions of Americans in a “viral blizzard” within a few weeks due to the Omicron variant pile on top of Delta, “and we’re not yet sure exactly how that’s going to work out.”

We are seeing huge lines in New York for Covid-19 testing, and you’ve seen the reports of the same lines all over the country as the holiday season gets into full swing.

Delta is still a big problem, but we knew how to deal with that.  Following are differing opinions and early research on Omicron.

A report today from South Africa’s Health Ministry said the country’s hospital admission rate as a percentage of new Covid-19 cases identified dropped sharply in the second week of the current infection wave driven by the Omicron variant.

Only 1.7% of identified Covid infections in the second week of the fourth wave of infections were admitted to the hospital, compared with 19% in the same week of the third wave, which was driven by Delta, South African Health Minister Joe Phaahla said Friday.

Still, new cases in that week of the current wave were about 20,000 a day, compared with 4,400 in the same week of the third wave, he said.

A study from Imperial College London, however, not only showed that a previous Covid-19 recovery provides little shield against infection with the Omicron variant (underlying the importance of booster shots), but there was also no evidence of Omicron cases being less severe than Delta, based on the proportion of people testing positive who had symptoms or went to the hospital, the research team concluded.

Dr. Mike Ryan of the World Health Organization summed it up: “Even if Omicron turns out to be a milder disease on an individual basis, if we generate millions and millions and millions of cases, we will fill the hospitals up.  We will fill the ICUs up.

“We need to refocus on public health and social measures, vaccinate the unvaccinated.”

But Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, a Democrat, declared in an interview that the Covid-19 emergency is “over” and that he won’t be implementing another statewide mask mandate in response to the spread of the Omicron variant, explaining that if people aren’t vaccinated at this point it’s their “own darn fault” if they get sick.

Polis noted that 84% of the 1,400 people hospitalized in Colorado at the time of the interview were unvaccinated.

But now, only 15% of the American people have gotten the badly needed booster shot and as people rush to get them, I’m hearing stories of multi-week waits for one and in many cases that will be too late. 

Your editor has done a lot of stupid things in his life (4,986 major mistakes at last count), but I told you how I got a booster, Nov. 8, at the exact six-month mark from my second dose by just walking into a facility that wasn’t even my county and at the time, I was under the age limit (which then changed a week later).  My salesmanship worked.  I wish all of you good luck in getting yours.

Lastly, the House Select subcommittee on the coronavirus crisis released a report today.  The committee, which spent months working to interview former Trump officials, said the administration worked to undermine the public health response to the coronavirus pandemic by blocking officials from speaking publicly, watering down testing guidance and attempting to interfere with other public health guidance.

Many pieces of the report were a summation of documents and interviews they’ve released throughout the year, but the report also outlined new examples where health guidance was adapted despite officials’ concerns about the potential harmful effects of the changes.

The report also laid out how one briefing so angered former President Trump that CDC officials were blocked by the Trump administration for more than three months from conducting public briefings.

“Trump Administration officials engaged in a staggering pattern of political interference in the pandemic response and failed to heed early warnings about the looming crisis,” the committee said in its summary.  “These decisions placed countless American lives at risk, undermined the nation’s public health institutions, and contributed to one of the worst failures of leadership in American history.”

Much more on Omicron et al below.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to pour troops into the border area with Ukraine.

Biden Agenda

--In a big blow to the president’s agenda, Senate Democratic leaders failed to break a deadlock over the $2 trillion Build Back Better plan, punting action on it to January.

President Biden said Thursday, “We will advance this work together over the days and weeks ahead.”

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said only that the party had “good discussions” on the tax and spending bill and separate voting rights legislation, but neither would meet the president’s hoped for year-end deadline.

West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin continued to be the key holdout in the 50-50 Senate.  President Biden said talks with Manchin would continue.

“It takes time to finalize these agreements, prepare the legislative changes, and finish all the parliamentary and procedural steps needed to enable a Senate vote,” Biden said.

So Democrats must win the support of all 50 members of the Senate Democratic caucus, with Manchin maintaining his criticisms of the design of the bill (Manchin wanting the improved child tax credit removed*, among other things), while separate disagreements on issues such as the state and local tax deduction remain unresolved.

*Manchin told reporters that assertions he opposes the tax credit were untrue, but in the next sentence he said he’s not negotiating in the press.  Manchin also opposed BBB proposals such as required family leave and some tax credits for clean energy. 

And now progressives are furious, including with Schumer, because they were promised quick action on Build Back Better if they helped pass a separate, $1 trillion, bipartisan road and bridge-building infrastructure bill, which they did.

Schumer has scheduled the Senate to be in session the week of Jan. 3, but Congress is seldom in session in early January in election years.

Meanwhile, Republicans sit on the sidelines cheering for failure.

As for the voting rights bill, Schumer didn’t sound optimistic when trying to advance legislation over unified Republican opposition.

“There’s nothing domestically more important” than voting rights, President Biden said on Wednesday.

“There is a universal view in our caucus that we need to pass legislation to protect our democracy,” Schumer said.

But as for changing the filibuster rules and the Senate’s 60-vote threshold, necessary for the voting rights legislation, Arizona Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema shut that door in a statement released Wednesday.

“Senator Sinema continues to support the Senate’s 60-vote threshold, to protect the country from repeated radical reversals in federal policy which would cement uncertainty, deepen divisions, and further erode Americans’ confidence in our government.”

Sen. Manchin has also repeatedly said he does not favor removing the legislative filibuster.

--The Senate did at least pass a $768 billion defense authorization bill on a rare bipartisan basis Wednesday, sending the bill to the president with $25 billion more than he requested.

“Our nation faces an enormous range of security challenges,” Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee said.  “To that end, this bill makes great progress.

“It addresses a broad range of pressing issues from the strategic competition with China and Russia, to disruptive technologies like hypersonics, A.I. and quantum computing, to modernizing our ships, aircraft and vehicles.”

--Congress gave final approval early Wednesday to legislation that would raise the debt ceiling by $2.5 trillion, moving over nearly unanimous Republican opposition to stave off the threat of a first-ever default until at least early 2023.

Democrats were united in support of the measure, which passed the Senate 50 to 49 along party lines on Tuesday afternoon, and then cleared the House 221 to 209 shortly after midnight on Wednesday.  President Biden then signed it.

The debt ceiling should not become an issue again until after the midterm elections.

--John Podhoretz / New York Post

“Is President Joe Biden doing anything – and I mean anything – right?  The news that his multitrillion-dollar swing for the historical fences, the Build Back Better bill, is being shelved just put a bow on his mostly horrible first year in office.

“If Biden had a blackboard and drew a line down the middle with his achievements on one side and failures on the other, the positive list has maybe two things on it while the negative list is staggeringly long.

“Negative: Inflation. Rising crime. More Covid deaths than in 2020.  The mishandling of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.  A border crisis to dwarf any we’ve seen. The ever-shifting line on school closures.

“More in the negative column: Getting dinged by courts on efforts to continue a national eviction moratorium through the Centers for Disease Control and on the national vaccine mandate.  The disastrous pullout from Afghanistan.  Bad off-year election results.

“Positive: Early on he got a Covid relief bill.  Later in the year he got an infrastructure bill.  These were real legislative accomplishments, there’s no denying that.  They sailed through the Scylla and Charybdis of hyperpartisanship and made it into law.

“The problem for Biden is that it’s far too early to claim any results from infrastructure spending.  The even greater issue is that the Covid relief bill may have created more problems than it solved.

“Months and months of extraordinarily generous unemployment insurance had the unintended consequence of allowing millions to stay out of a workforce desperate for their return because the private sector couldn’t compete on price with…unemployment.

“That kind of weird competitive pressure on the private sector from the public sector has also played a role in the supply-chain crises and the inflationary spiral.  So his success here is also responsible for what may be the most damaging policy failure of his presidency so far….

“All this hearkens directly back to 1979-81, the late Carter years and the peculiar emotional combination of confusion, powerlessness and rage that seemed to emanate from the liberal ruling class when its off-the-shelf answers to pressing questions just didn’t assure anyone that they knew what they were doing.

“Biden’s championing of a bill initially designed to spend $6 trillion ate up his party’s legislative attention for nearly six months.  Build Back Better declined in size but never ascended in approval, no matter the propagandistic efforts to claim its provisions were popular – just so long as nobody was asked how much the provisions they liked would actually cost.

“It doesn’t really matter why Biden went down this stupid path. It doesn’t matter whether he had an idea about solidifying his party’s progressive base in the way Donald Trump solidified his party’s conservative base.  Or maybe it was because third-rate newsmagazine historians and bestselling pop biography toadies came to the White House sucking their ‘PBSNewsHour’ thumbs and swelling his head with comparisons to FDR and LBJ and whatever other three-initialed liberal gods they might have invoked to cloud what little reason Biden might have left.

“What matters is the results.

“He didn’t ‘fix’ Covid.  The country is experiencing inflation at a level 170 million people in this country (all those under the age of 40) have never lived through before.  Cities are returning to the state of nature. And Biden’s party is going to go out there next year and see whether it can do anything to stave off the tsunami that will sweep it away 11 months from now on midterm Election Day.”

--Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Even in the age of cyber attacks and hypersonic weapons, American strategists are discovering that old-fashioned physical geography matters in U.S.-China competition.  One consequence is that sparsely populated island nations in the Pacific Ocean are getting heightened attention from the U.S. and its allies.  The latest example is a joint investment by the U.S., Japan and Australia in an undersea cable connecting the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), Kiribati and Nauru.

“The State Department’s Saturday press release headline, ‘Joint Statement On Improving East Micronesia Telecommunications Activity,’ may not suggest a geopolitical watershed.  The countries receiving the investment have a combined population not much greater than that of Boise, Idaho, and a GDP many times lower.  But they encompass 641 islands among them (mostly belonging to the FSM) in the same crucial oceanic neighborhood as U.S. bases in Guam, Hawaii and Australia.

“China’s strategists are well aware that if they can exercise more influence over these tiny countries, they’ll be in a better position to force the U.S. Navy out of the Western Pacific – either in a military conflict or through a gradual shift in the balance of power.  In 2019 Beijing persuaded Kiribati to switch diplomatic recognition from American-aligned Taiwan to China, and this year China announced plans for an airstrip on part of the archipelago.

“The FSM has also received growing Chinese investment, and it had weighed an offer from Beijing to build the undersea internet cable.  But the U.S. and its allies prevailed on the island governments in behind-the-scenes diplomacy.  The joint announcement says the investment will ‘meet genuine needs’ and ‘respect sovereignty’ – a veiled reference to the way China uses infrastructure investment as a cover for political leverage or espionage.

“Diplomacy alone won’t be enough to maintain America’s Pacific position against China’s surging military reach.  But small victories like this one show the U.S. has recognized the strategic implications of China’s Pacific-island inroads, and is taking steps to answer them.”

So score one for the Biden administration.

Some of you know my connection to FSM, being the only kid on my block who actually built a church on the island of Yap (Rumung, specifically).  I love the people, but I’ve written in the past when I traveled there that China was a concern, and also how the United States was ignoring the region at its peril.

As an aside, I think of my friends there all the time, especially during the coronavirus, with visitors not allowed on the island.  As a result FSM has literally reported one case…one…but the economies, islands like Yap reliant on tourism to a large extent (it’s a great spot for diving), are suffering, as you can imagine.

Wall Street and the Economy

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled on Wednesday that inflation is now enemy No. 1 to keeping the U.S. economic expansion on track and returning the labor market to something approaching ebullient pre-pandemic levels.

In an abrupt, though telegraphed, policy pivot, the Fed sped up the drawdown of its asset-purchase program and laid out a roadmap for a series of interest rate increases over the coming years that would see the Fed funds rate rise from essentially 0% to 1.6% or so by the end of 2023, beginning with three rate hikes in 2022.  Powell also hinted the Fed could begin reducing its massive balance sheet, another way to reduce liquidity.

“One of the two big threats to getting back to maximum employment is actually high inflation,” Powell said during a press briefing following the two-day Open Market Committee meeting, adding that the pandemic was the other.  “What we need is another long expansion, like the ones we have been having over the last 40 years.”

Powell said: “Economic developments and changes in the outlook warrant this evolution,” in talking of the decision to taper the Fed’s bond buying faster and to end it completely in March, which would allow the Fed to begin raising rates probably in May.

The Fed has made clear it wants to end its bond-buying program before it raises rates, which would chill the economy some by making it more expensive to borrow.

“In my view we are making rapid progress toward maximum employment,” Powell said, and in their new economic projections the Fed sees the unemployment rate returning to its pre-pandemic level of 3.5% by the end of 2022.

But inflation has been far higher and broader and has lasted longer than the Fed had anticipated.  Consumer prices rose 6.8% in November, and then Tuesday we received a report on producer prices for the month and they came in at a 9.6% annual rate, 7.7% ex-food and energy…both headline and core far higher than expected.

Some economists have warned that the Omicron variant could allow elevated inflation to linger if it further disrupts supply chains and causes factories to shut down for periods of time.  Powell conceded this was a risk.

“The rise in Covid cases in recent weeks, along with the emergence of the Omicron variant, pose risks to the outlook,” he said.

The Fed’s latest estimate for inflation is 5.3% this year, but dropping to 2.6% in 2022.  Their preferred personal consumption expenditures barometer pegs inflation at 2.7% on core in 2022.

Growth is forecast to be 5.5% in 2021, and 4.0% in 2022.

Wall Street liked what it heard and stocks rallied after the announcement, though finished down on the week.

In a CNN Poll, three-quarters say they are worried about the state of the economy in their own community (75%) and 63% say the nation’s economy is in poor shape.  Nearly 6 in 10 (57%) say that the economic news they’ve heard lately has been mostly bad.

Asked to rate the severity of seven issues affecting the economy recently, about 8 in 10 say the rising cost of food and other everyday items (80%), the disruption in the nation’s supply chain (79%), and the rising cost of housing (77%) are major problems for the nation’s economy.  Seventy percent see the rising cost of gas as a major problem, and 67% each say labor shortages and government spending are major issues.  A similar 65% call the coronavirus pandemic a major problem for the country’s economy.

Few see President Biden’s policies as having a positive impact on economic conditions (30%), while nearly half (45%) say his policies have worsened the economy, and a quarter say they’ve had no impact.

The Fed’s decision to accelerate its reduction of bond purchases received the International Monetary Fund’s endorsement, calling it a “well-calibrated” response to rising wage and price pressures but increases risks for emerging markets, an IMF spokesman, Gerry Rice, said on Thursday.

“Continuing to set policy in such a data dependent way will help keep inflation expectations anchored.

“However, this faster pace of normalization does increase the risks faced by countries reliant on dollar funding, especially emerging and developing economies,” Rice said.

The IMF has grown more concerned in recent weeks about inflation leading to a more abrupt tightening of monetary policy in advanced countries and has urged central banks to contain inflation before wage-price spirals take hold.

We did have some other economic news.  The retail sales figure for November, up 0.3%, ditto ex-vehicles, was very disappointing and with Omicron, and inflation, December is suddenly not shaping up that well either.

November housing starts were better than forecast, a 1.679 million annualized rate, while November industrial production rose a less than expected 0.5%.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for the fourth quarter is down to 7.2%.

Europe and Asia

--On Thursday, the Bank of England became the world’s first major central bank to raise interest rates since the pandemic hammered the global economy, lifting its Bank Rate to 0.25% from 0.1%.  The IMF had urged the BOE to avoid an inaction bias when it comes to raising interest rates, forecasting British inflation at a 30-year high of 5.5% next year.  [It came in at 5.1% for November. The BOE hadn’t expected it to touch 5% until April.]

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank raised its inflation projections on Thursday but cut its 2022 growth outlook as the pandemic and supply chain disruptions slow the eurozone’s economic recovery.

The ECB now sees inflation above its 2% target this year and in 2022, but holding below it in the following two years, in line with its previous guidance for the current inflation “bump” to be longer than expected but still largely transitory.  Inflation is now seen at 1.8% in 2024, indicating that policy tightening is still far into the future as the bank has undershot its inflation target for the past decade.

Inflation is seen averaging 3.2% next year, well above the 1.7% projected in September.

The growth outlook for next year was trimmed while projections were raised for this year and 2023.

Growth is seen at 5.1% in 2021 and 4.2% next year, with 2.9% in 2023.

--We had the flash eurozone PMI figures for December (courtesy of IHS Markit) and the composite came in at 53.4 vs. 55.4 in November, a 9-month low. [50 the dividing line between growth and contraction.]

Manufacturing Output: 53.9 vs. 53.8; Services: 53.3 vs. 55.9, 8-month low.

Germany: Manufacturing Output: 53.2 vs. 51.4 in November, 3-month high; Services 48.4 vs. 52.7, 10-month low
France: Manufacturing Output: 49.2 December vs. 50.1; Services: 57.1 vs. 57.4

UK: Manufacturing Output: 53.3 December vs. 52.7 November; Services 53.2 vs. 58.5, 10-month low

Chris Williamson / IHS Markit

“The eurozone economy is being dealt yet another blow from Covid-19, with rising infection levels dampening growth in the service sector in particular to result in a disappointing end to 2021.  Germany is being especially hard hit, seeing the economy stall for the first time in a year-and-a-half, but the growth slowdown is broad based across the region.

“Encouragement comes from the manufacturing sector, where the strain on supply chains is showing some signs of easing, in turn helping to revive factory production.  Most notably auto production has risen for the first time since August.

“Easing supply constraints have alleviated some of the upward pressures on inflation, though the overall rate of price increases in December was still the second-highest on record.  While inflation could soon peak, the rate of increase remains elevated.

“Looking ahead, the Omicron variant poses further downside risks to the growth outlook as we head into 2022, and any accompanying disruption to supply chains could result in price pressures spiking higher again.”

Inflation in the EA19 came in at 4.9% for November, up from 4.1% in October, as reported by Eurostat.  A year earlier the rate was -0.3%.

Germany 6.0% (annualized), France 3.4%, Italy 3.9%, Spain 5.5%, Netherlands 5.9%, Ireland 5.4%.

Industrial production in the eurozone in October was up by 1.1% compared with September, and 3.3% from a year ago.

Brexit: British companies are concerned the truckers aren’t prepared for the new red tape from January as extra post-Brexit customs checks go into force on Jan. 1.  The Cold Chain Federation warned that many lorries could arrive at the busy port of Calais in France without having made the correct declaration and could be refused entry.

As for Prime Minister Boris Johnson, his authority suffered a heavy blow this week after he was forced to rely on opposition votes to implement new pandemic measures due to a rebellion within his ranks.

Many of the MPs who had supported Johnson are furious at the erosion of civil liberties they say his coronavirus rules represent, while at the same time they’re frustrated at some of his self-inflicted errors that have damaged the party in recent weeks.

Regarding the latter, it has been alleged that Johnson attended a party with No. 10 Downing Street staff during the first UK lockdown in May last year.

The Guardian and British Independent reported that the alleged event was held on the same day that Matt Hancock, then health secretary, urged people to “please stick with the rules.”

At the time the party is said to have taken place, people were only permitted to meet one other person from outside their household in an outdoor, public place, and were told to keep two meters apart.

Yet according to reports, about 20 staff attended the party, with drinking going on late into the evening.

The prime minister reportedly told one attendee that they deserved a drink for “beating back” the virus.

So with all the above going on, it wasn’t that big a surprise that Boris Johnson’s Conservative (Tory) Party lost a “safe” seat in a by-election Thursday in a district it had represented for more than a century, dealing another stinging blow to the prime minister in a week of political turmoil.

The victorious Liberal Democrat candidate, Helen Morgan, overturned a majority of almost 23,000 won by the former Conservative lawmaker Owen Paterson at the last general election in 2019.  Paterson had resigned after breaking lobbying rules despite an unsuccessful effort by Johnson to save him.

Turning to Asia…China reported some key statistics for November, mostly less than expected and weak, as industrial production rose 3.8% vs. a year ago, retail sales were up just 3.9% Y/Y, and fixed asset investment was up 5.2% for the first 11 months.

Regarding the supply chain issue, parts of China with rising Covid cases are shutting down businesses all over again.

Japan’s flash December PMI data had manufacturing at 54.2 vs. 54.5 in November, with services at 51.1 vs. 53.

Industrial production for October was down 4.1% year-over-year.

And on the trade front, November exports rose 20.5% Y/Y, with imports rising 43.8%.

Street Bytes

--Stocks took it on the chin, save for Wednesday’s rally on the Fed news, with Covid dimming the economic outlook, not just here but abroad.

The Dow Jones fell 1.7% to 35365, while the S&P 500 declined 1.9% and Nasdaq plummeted 3.0%.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 0.12%  2-yr. 0.64%  10-yr. 1.40%  30-yr. 1.81%

Yields on the long end of the Treasury curve fell, despite the Fed’s warning on rate hikes next year and beyond, as Covid fears dominated instead.

--The Omicron variant’s impact on global oil markets won’t be as great as initially feared, according to OPEC, because governments and businesses are now better adapted to dealing with the coronavirus.

As part of its monthly report, OPEC left unchanged its global oil demand and supply forecasts for 2021 and 2022.  However, some of the recovery in consumption that it had expected  to take place in the final months of this year will be shifted into early 2022, due to Omicron.

OPEC cited rising vaccination rates as proving important in lessening the variant’s economic impact.

OPEC also estimates investment by non-cartel countries in their oil exploration and production at around $350 billion for this year and next, roughly half of the amount spent in 2014, “thereby limiting growth potential.”

As for the potential of resurrecting the Iran nuclear deal and its impact on oil prices, analysts and traders believe the differences between Tehran, Washington and the E3 (Britain, France and Germany) suggest the prospect of the U.S. lifting its embargo on Iranian oil exports is unlikely for now.

China’s crude imports in January 2022 are expected to be marginally higher than a year earlier, but will soften toward the end of the quarter, according to industry consultants FGE.  Imports this year are on track to register the first yearly decline since records began in 2004.

Crude oil finished the week at $70.29 on West Texas Intermediate.

--FedEx Corp reinstated its original fiscal 2022 forecast on Thursday, even as persistent labor woes chipped away profits ahead of the peak holiday season when the number of packages it handles often doubles. Shares surged 5% in response.

The company said labor pressures should ease going forward, while the carrier believes it can retain required labor for the remainder of its fiscal year.  FedEx didn’t see a repeat of 2020’s “Shipageddon” pandemic delivery delays.

Retailers have reduced the pressure on carriers like FedEx and UPS by urging early shopping and expanding pick-up and gig-delivery options.  At the same time, most stores remain open despite accelerating numbers of Omicron variant infections.

FedEx now expects full-year earnings, excluding items, to be $20.50 to $21.50 per share, as it had first forecast.  In September, FedEx lowered the range.  Adjusted net income was $1.3 billion, or $4.83 per share, for the quarter ended Nov. 30, unchanged from the year earlier.  Revenue increased 14% to $23.5 billion.

But according to invoice auditor ShipMatrix, from Nov. 14 to Dec. 4 – including the Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday holiday shopping days – on-time performance was 85.7% for FedEx, 96.4% at UPS and 95.1% for the U.S. Postal Service.

--Boeing Co. said on Tuesday that it handed over 34 airplanes to carriers in November, while adding 109 jets to its 737 MAX order tally…disappointing numbers.

The delivery tally – closely scrutinized by investors as deliveries generate much-needed cash – compares with 27 planes in October, and seven in the year ago period when Boeing was in the throes of the 737 MAX safety crises.

Again in November, Boeing failed to deliver its advanced carbon-composite 787 Dreamliner, which remains mired in inspections and retrofits likely to keep the jets sidelined until April 2022.

Of the 34 aircraft delivered last month, 28 were 737 MAX planes – 10 of which were for low-cost carrier Ryanair.

The 109 gross orders were all of the 737 MAX, including an order for 72 from India’s Akasa Air. I feel so stupid.  Never heard of them.

So I looked it up and now I don’t feel so stupid.  It is India’s newest airline, ultra low-cost, and just received its regulatory certification in October.

--The bad news for Boeing on the delivery front was followed by more lousy news when Boeing lost out to Airbus on a number of deals.

Qantas Airways said Thursday it has chosen Airbus as its preferred aircraft to replace its fleet of domestic narrow-body Boeing 737-800s and 717s.

The Australian national airline said it has committed to buy 20 of the A321XLR extra long-range jets and 20 of the A220 planes.  It will also have an option to purchase 94 more aircraft over a ten-plus year delivery window.

Qantas is the latest airline to join a growing race for efficient medium-haul jets as carriers look past the pandemic to lower fuel costs and help emissions targets.

For Boeing the loss of the Qantas contract is a further blow to its 737 MAX.  Qantas has operated Boeing jets since 1959 and was once the world’s only airline with an all 747 fleet.

And then also on Thursday, Airbus won out over Boeing on a deal to supply all or most of a requirement for dozens of narrowbody jets to Air France-KLM.

Airbus secured an order for A321 single-aisle jets from Dutch subsidiary KLM.

--Southwest Airlines CEO Gary Kelly has tested positive for Covid-19, two days after appearing alongside other airline CEOs at a Senate Commerce hearing, media reports said Friday.

Also at the hearing were the CEOs of United Airlines and American Airlines.  A senior Delta Air Lines executive who was two seats from Kelly, reportedly tested negative Thursday and Friday.

During the hearing, Kelly drew public attention after questioning the health benefits of masks on aircraft.

“Although testing negative multiple times prior to the Senate Commerce Committee hearing, Gary tested positive for Covid-19 after returning home, experiencing mild symptoms, and taking a PCR test,” a Southwest spokeswoman said in a statement.

“Gary is doing well and currently resting at home, he has been fully vaccinated and received the booster earlier this year.  Gary’s symptoms continue to be mild, and each day he is moving closer to a full recovery.”

--TSA checkpoint travel numbers vs. 2019….

12/16…83 percent of 2019 levels
12/15…79
12/14…76
12/13…85
12/12…89
12/11…88
12/10…86
12/9…83

*Post-pandemic high of 2,451,300 travelers set on 11/28 (Sun. after Thanksgiving).

--Lowe’s Cos. Inc. on Wednesday forecast full-year 2022 revenue and profit below analysts’ estimates, signaling that the pandemic-driven surge in demand for home improvement products would wane and sending its shares down 4%.

Lowe’s said it expects 2022 same-store sales to fall as much as 3%, as the easing of coronavirus restrictions encourages Americans to leave behind some pandemic shopping habits such as spending on paint, tools and gardening for DIY (do-it-yourself) projects.

The company forecast 2022 total sales of $94 billion to $97 billion, below analysts’ estimates of $97.66bn.

So after the announcement pre-market opening on Wednesday, the shares were down, but they finished up after the company then announced a massive new $13 billion share repurchase program.  With over $7.0bn remaining on its prior program, LOW now has total share repurchase authorization of about $20 billion, providing the company with ample fire power to boost its earnings per share.

On the initial news, shares in Home Depot fell in sympathy, but also recovered later.  LOW and HD shares have soared by 280% and 165%, respectively, since mid-March 2020.

Fueled by rising home prices, low interest rates, and a shift toward spending more at home, demand for larger-scale projects and smaller DIY tasks exploded.  But as inflation began to rise sharply, based on LOW’s soft guidance, it appears people are reining in their spending on costly home improvement activities.

--General Motors plans to invest more than $3 billion to make electric vehicles in Michigan, a win for the state after a slew of announcements of auto projects in Southern states.

GM is finalizing plans for two electric-vehicle projects in Michigan.  One would convert its Orion Assembly plant in suburban Detroit to serve as its hub for production of electric pickup trucks.  The renovation would cost at least $2 billion and would be expected to create more than 1,500 jobs at the factory, which today is lightly used.

Also, the auto maker also reportedly intends to build a battery-cell factory near one of its assembly plants in Lansing, Michigan.  That project would be a 50-50 joint venture between GM and its battery partner, LG Energy Solutions, and create around 1,200 jobs.

But both projects are still a ways down the road, awaiting state and local approvals and tax abatements.

Meanwhile, I told you last week of Toyota Motor’s new battery plant in North Carolina, and before that, Ford said it would invest in three plants, two in Kentucky and one in Tennessee.

--Apple is delaying its return-to-office plan indefinitely and giving all its employees $1,000, the company said Wednesday.

Corporate workers were scheduled to return to the office on Feb.1, but increasing Covid cases because of Omicron changed the company’s mind, Bloomberg first reported.  Now the return date is “yet to be determined.”

Retail employees who have maintained stores throughout the pandemic receive the bonus as well, CEO Tim Cook said.

Apple has pushed back its office return date several different times as the coronavirus has refused to end.

Coincidentally, Apple temporarily closed three retail stores in Miami, Annapolis and Ottawa after a rise in Covid cases and exposures among employees.

Apple said on Tuesday all customers and employees at its stores in the U.S. will be required to wear masks.

--Kroger Co. will eliminate some Covid-19 benefits for unvaccinated employees starting next year, as the supermarket chain pushes more workers to get inoculated amid growing concerns over the spread of the Omicron variant.

The grocer will no longer provide unpaid Covid-19 leave for unvaccinated employees and will apply a $50 monthly health insurance surcharge to salaried non-union workers who are unvaccinated and enrolled in a company healthcare plan.

Kroger is among the biggest private employers in the U.S., with about 465,000 full and part-time workers.

“As we prepare to navigate the next phase of the pandemic, we are modifying policies to encourage safe behaviors including vaccination,” a company spokesperson said on Tuesday.

Concerns over Omicron could lead to a jump in crowds at Kroger stores as consumers look to stock up on goods and household essentials.

--China’s internet regulator fined Weibo, which operates a platform similar to Twitter, over $470,000 for repeatedly publishing “illegal information.”

The Cyberspace Administration of China says Weibo violated a cybersecurity law on the protection of minors as well as other laws, but did not give further details.

--Speaking of China, tech giant Huawei Technologies has long said it just sells general-purpose networking gear and has nothing to do with China’s state surveillance machinery.

But a review by the Washington Post of more than 100 Huawei PowerPoint presentations, many marked “confidential,” suggests the company has had a broader role in tracking China’s populace than it has acknowledged.

“These marketing presentations, posted to a public-facing Huawei website before the company removed them late last year, show Huawei pitching how its technologies can help government authorities identify individuals by voice, monitor political individuals of interest, manage ideological reeducation and labor schedules for prisoners, and help retailers track shoppers using facial recognition.”

The company, in a statement to the Post, said in part, “Huawei has no knowledge of the projects mentioned in the Washington Post report.”

Even the Chinese Communist Party, which relies on the tools apparently employed by the likes of Huawei to root out dissent and maintain its one-party rule, is now warning against the technologies’ misuse in the private sector as facial recognition and other biometric tracking becomes pervasive.  [Eva Dou / Washington Post]

--Time magazine named Tesla CEO Elon Musk its Person of the Year for 2021, calling him a “clown, genius, edgelord*, visionary, industrialist, showman.”

* ‘a person who affects a provocative or extreme persona’…if, like me, you had never heard this word before, which doesn’t make us bad people.

Time cited the breadth of Musk’s endeavors, from his founding of SpaceX in 2002, to his hand in the creation of the alternative energy company SolarCity in addition to Tesla, the most valuable car company in the world.

The magazine also noted the sway Musk holds over an army of loyal followers (and investors) on social media, where he skewers the powerful and also regulators attempting to keep in check an executive that is far from traditional.

A good choice, given what the “Person of the Year” is supposed to be.  Who had the most impact, for better or worse this year.  I mean the likes of Ayatollah Khomeini, Stalin and Hitler have been selected over the years.

You can already book 2022’s cover.  Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, the photo being of the two shaking hands.

--Elon Musk’s wealth, and space rival, Jeff Bezos, really could not have screwed up more on Saturday as he oversaw one of his Blue Origin 10-minute flights into space, hours after learning that six Amazon.com workers were killed at a warehouse near St. Louis Friday night (Edwardsville, Ill.) when a series of tornadoes roared through the area.

Bezos didn’t mention the tragedy as he greeted the return of the six passengers and the optics were awful.  He waited until Saturday night to tweet he was “heartbroken” over the deaths.

--Southern California home prices jumped nearly 16% in November from a year earlier, showing how the market is still ultra-competitive despite a slight slowdown that began to set in several months ago.

The region’s six-county median sales price reached an all-time high of $693,500 in November, according to data released Thursday by real estate firm DQNews.  That’s 0.5% higher than in the previous month, October, and 15.6% higher than in November 2020.  Sales rose 1.8% from that year-earlier period.

In Los Angeles County, the median sales price rose 12.6% to $788,000, and sales rose 7.7%.

In Orange County, the median sales price rose 14.9% to $919,000, and sales fell 3.5%.

In San Diego County, the median sales price rose 15.4% to $750,000, and sales fell 7%.

--McDonald’s said Thursday it has clawed back $105 million in severance paid to former Chief Executive Steve Easterbrook as part of settlement stemming from its lawsuit against the former head of the fast-food giant after he was fired two years ago for having a consensual relationship with an employee.

Easterbrook was fired in November 2019, but the company sued him in August 2020 after he had another relationship with an employee, alleging that he lied and concealed evidence.

The company said in a filing with the SEC that Easterbrook returned the cash and equity awards included in the severance package he received, “which he would have forfeited had he been truthful at the time of his termination and, as a result, been terminated for cause.”

Easterbrook apologized, according to the filing.

--I was at a Christmas party this week and talking to a guy about Wall Street and how badly I felt for all the lower-paid workers and small businesses that continue to get killed by the fact few corporate types are going back to their Manhattan skyscrapers…continuing to work at home.

And then you see a story this week that nearly 375,000 New Yorkers remain unemployed, but over on Wall Street, bonus pools are expected to expand by around 40% for bankers at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, among others, thanks to a massive flow of IPOs and mergers.

Across all financial firms, the average bonus is expected to come in at $210,000, obliterating the high of $191,000 set in 2006 shortly before the onset of the financial crisis.

The state comptroller’s office estimates one in every nine jobs in the city is associated with Wall Street.  One business doing well as a result is the watch industry.  The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry said October sales in the U.S. clocked in 36% higher than comparable 2019 figures, while sales for items costing more than $3,000 rose by 15% and items priced lower fell sharply.

--Omicron is starting to do a number on New York City’s entertainment industry.  The Metropolitan Opera House will require a booster shot for admission.

Two vaccine doses and a mask are already required to gain entry, but beginning Jan. 17, you need to show more.

Those who aren’t eligible for a booster by then can get a two-week grace period to schedule and receive one.

Many Broadway shows have now temporarily shut down due to sick cast members, including “Hamilton.”

And we learned late today that Radio City’s Christmas Spectacular is canceled for the season.

But the New Year’s Eve celebration in Times Square is still on.  Only those vaccinated can attend, but that doesn’t mean they’ve had a booster, last I saw.

To give you an idea of how many tourists are no doubt disappointed in all the cancellations, city hotels broke their pandemic-era occupancy record for the week ended Dec. 11, 81.5%, according to STR, which tracks the industry.

This was the leading rate for all U.S. hotel markets tracked by the firm.

--Despite critical acclaim and two years’ worth of anticipation, Steven Spielberg’s lavish “West Side Story” revival debuted with just $10.5 million in ticket sales its opening weekend, a very worrisome result for an industry trying to recapture its mojo amidst the pandemic.

While audiences are returning to multiplexes (at least prior to Omicron), older moviegoers, who made up the bulk of the ticket-buyers for Spielberg’s latest, have been among the slowest to return.

It’s going to be one interesting holiday season, with younger-skewing films like “Spider-Man: No Way Home” expected to draw well, and “West Side Story” may yet do so, but it’s all about the Omicron headlines.

But then on Friday, AMC Entertainment Holdings announced that roughly 1.1 million people attended “Spider-Man: No Way Home” at AMC theaters Thursday, setting a new one-day attendance record for a movie during all of 2020 and 2021.

AMC said the film had the second-highest opening-night gross of all time following “Avengers: Endgame” in 2019.  Shares in the company soared 19% on the news.

--Bruce Springsteen just sold his catalogue of master records and publishing rights to Sony Music for $500 million; further proof that the industry’s dealmaking boom means glory days for artists.

Springsteen’s is just the latest big deal.  Warner Music bought the worldwide rights to David Bowie’s catalogue in September, and Bob Dylan sold his oeuvre of more than 600 songs last year to Universal Music for around $300 million.

The hope is that songs offer a reliable, fast-growing income stream buttressed by the success of on-demand platforms like Spotify and Apple Music.  Those services hand most of their revenue to rights holders and must pay out each time a song is played.

--My local Dollar Tree is still charging a $1 for items, not $1.25.  Another huge Dollar Tree buy for moi is envelopes.  So I further loaded up.

When I die, I bequeath my remaining envelopes to…..

The Pandemic

--Most Americans should be given the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines instead of the Johnson & Johnson shot that can cause rare but serious blood clots, U.S. health advisers recommended Thursday.

The strange clotting problem has caused nine confirmed deaths after J&J vaccinations while the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines don’t come with that risk and also appear to be more effective, advisers to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said.

It’s an unusual move, and not universally popular in the medical community.  The CDC’s director, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, must decide whether to accept the panel’s advice.

Until now the U.S. has treated all three Covid-19 vaccines available to Americans as an equal choice, since large studies found that they all offered strong protection and early supplies were limited.  J&J’s vaccine initially was welcomed as a single-dose option that could be especially important for hard-to-reach groups like homeless people who might not get the needed second dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines.

But the CDC’s advisers said Thursday that it was time to recognize a lot has changed since vaccines began rolling out a year ago.

--Pfizer on Tuesday revealed its experimental Covid-19 pill can cut the risk of hospitalization or death by 89% in high-risk patients, while separate studies suggest the drug also retains its efficacy against the fast-spreading Omicron variant.

Pfizer noted the anti-viral treatment proved most effective when given to high-risk adults within several days of their first symptoms.  Of the 697 study participants who received the drug within the first three days, no deaths were reported and only five people were hospitalized, Pfizer said in a press release.

The study meanwhile showed that 44 were hospitalized, including 9 who died, out of the 682 who received the placebo.

None of the adults who participated in the study were vaccinated, though experts believe the drug, dubbed, Paxlovid, will also be effective in those suffering break-through infections.

--Meanwhile the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid vaccine has been less effective in South Africa at keeping people infected with the virus out of hospital since Omicron emerged, a real-world study published on Tuesday showed.  Between Nov. 15 and Dec. 7, people who had received two doses of the shot and tested positive for Covid-19 had a 70% chance of avoiding hospitalization, down from 93% during the previous wave of Delta infections, the study showed.

--Pfizer and AstraZeneca’s vaccines are not as effective in fighting off Omicron compared to other strains, according to a study from the University of Oxford.  Researchers there discovered a “substantial fall” in neutralizing antibodies when the Omicron variant was introduced to blood samples 28 days after participants received their second dose of either Pfizer or AstraZeneca’s vaccine.

The study, which has yet to be peer-reviewed, discovered that some of the participants “failed to neutralize [the virus] at all.”

“This will likely lead to increased breakthrough infections in previously infected or double vaccinated individuals, which could drive a further wave of infection, although there is currently no evidence of increased potential to cause severe disease, hospitalization or death,” the study’s authors said.

--So then we have this….

A new Columbia University study says the Omicron variant is “markedly resistant” to existing vaccines, antibody treatments and even booster show may provide only modest protection against infection.

The draft study was led by renowned researcher Dr. David Ho and early evidence suggests the lightning quick-spreading strain is likely to cause a massive wave of so-called breakthrough infections even among fully vaccinated people.

“We found (Omicron) to be markedly resistant to neutralization in individuals vaccinated with one of the four widely used Covid-19 vaccines,” said the study. “Even serum from persons vaccinated and boosted with mRNA-based vaccines exhibited substantially diminished neutralizing activity against (Omicron),” it added.

The study has not been reviewed by other experts or edited by any scientific journal, but it says existing antibody therapies, like the monoclonal antibody cocktails that are credited with saving many lives during current and previous Covid waves, appear to be mostly ineffective against Omicron.

It also noted that natural antibodies from previous infections are not effective in warding off Omicron, meaning people who have had Covid-19 in the past are virtually unprotected from reinfection in the coming Omicron wave.

The study still recommends getting vaccinated and obtaining booster shots to obtain even modest protection they offer against infection and especially against serious or life-threatening diseases.

The unusually blunt study notes that Omicron “struck fear” in even veteran researchers when it was first identified because of its high number of mutations, especially in the virus’ so-called spike proteins.  Those are part of the virus that antibodies attack, so changes can make them less effective at preventing infection.

“These extensive spike mutations raise the specter that current vaccines and therapeutic antibodies would be greatly compromised,” the study said.  “This concern is amplified by the findings we now report.”

But before you panic, understand the study only involved a handful of patients and it made no effort to discover whether Omicron might cause less or more severe illness.

Early clinical reports from South Africa continue to offer hope that the variant hasn’t caused as many severe cases or deaths so far.

But the study grimly warns that new vaccines and treatments will need to be developed quickly.

It seemed to contradict, though, the hopeful claims by Dr. Anthony Fauci that existing vaccines and booster shots should be sufficient to get us through a new wave.

“The Omicron variant has now put an exclamation mark on this point.  It is not too far-fetched to think that this (Covid) is now only a mutation or two away from being pan-resistant to (all) current antibodies,” the study said.

Ugh.

Covid-19 death tolls, as of tonight….

World…5,360,467
USA…826,719
Brazil…617,647
India…476,897
Mexico…297,356
Russia…295,104
Peru…202,076
UK…147,048
Indonesia…143,986
Italy…135,421
Iran…130,992
Colombia…129,345
France…121,333
Argentina…116,892
Germany…108,606
Ukraine…92,461
Poland…90,872
South Africa…90,297
Spain…88,708
Turkey…80,053
Romania…58,079
Philippines…50,570
Chile…38,812
Hungary…37,530
Czechia…35,046
Ecuador…33,593
Malaysia…31,044
Canada…30,032
Bulgaria…30,014
Vietnam…29,103
Pakistan…28,863
Bangladesh…28,043
Belgium…27,763
Tunisia…25,450
Iraq…24,042
Thailand…21,325
Egypt…21,277
Netherlands…20,370

[Source: worldometers.info]

U.S. daily death tolls…Mon. 638; Tues. 1,598; Wed. 1,690; Thurs. 997; Fri. 1,653.

Covid Bytes

--New cases of Covid-19 in Britain hit a record high both Wednesday and Thursday (and then today), as England’s Chief Medical Officer warned daily hospital admissions could also hit new peaks due to the fast-spreading Omicron variant.

Britain reported 88,736 new infections Thursday, the highest since the start of the pandemic and up 10,000 since the previous record set on Wednesday. [Friday’s tally was over 93,000.]

The surge in cases was piling pressure on a health service struggling with staff sickness, England’s Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty said on Thursday.

Omicron is so transmissible that even if it proves to be milder than other variants, it could still cause a surge in hospital admissions, Whitty told lawmakers.

--Italy on Tuesday extended a Covid-19 state of emergency to March 31 and ruled that all visitors from EU countries must take a test before departure, amid concerns over the spread of Omicron.

The state of emergency was set to expire at the end of December.  Those who have not been vaccinated must also undergo a quarantine of five days on arrival.

The decision met with the disapproval of the European Commission, which favors common rules to travel within the bloc based on a so-called Green Pass certificate proving vaccination against the virus.

--France banned tourism and non-essential business travel from the UK in response to Britain’s rapid rise in Covid cases.

--Israel on Sunday announced it was adding Britain, Denmark and Belgium to its “red” list of countries that Israelis are forbidden to visit.  Israel has already banned the entry of foreigners to try to stem infection rates.

--Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau advised Canadians this week to avoid international travel while provinces ramp up vaccinations and hand out rapid tests to combat Omicron.  Cases are spiking big time here.

Canada initially advised people in March 2020 not to travel abroad unless necessary but in October of this year – before the first Omicron cases were reported – withdrew the notice, citing the success of vaccination efforts.

--My state of New Jersey reported its highest confirmed case level on Thursday (6,271) since last Jan. 13…not good.

Hospitalizations are up to 1,756, compared with 644 on Nov. 7, however, this compares with 3,669 a year ago.

Meanwhile, New York State reported its highest single day Covid case total yet today since the pandemic began, over 21,000 cases, 10,000 in New York City as Gotham’s positivity rate doubled in just three days.

--A party in Sydney, Australia, to celebrate Taylor Swift’s revisited album “On Repeat: Taylor Swift Red Party” on Dec. 10 turned into a superspreader event with at least 97 confirmed Covid-19 cases associated with the gathering.

--Editorial / Washington Post

“The warnings are coming fast and furious.  ‘Tidal wave,’ said British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.  ‘Omicron is spreading at a rate we have not seen with any previous variant,’ said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the World Health Organization’s director general.  ‘I’m a lot more alarmed,’ said Marcus Plescia, chief medical officer of the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials. A new wave of highly transmissible coronavirus is engulfing the world and will explode soon in the United States.  It is vital to grasp what this means and how to respond.

“Cases will rise fast. Omicron appears to transmit more rapidly than the Delta variant, and it will almost certainly bring more breakthrough infections in people who are already vaccinated. Cornell University shut down its Ithaca, N.Y., campus after a Covid-19 outbreak marked by a significant share of Omicron cases, including in the fully vaccinated.  (Though this Omicron outbreak did not bring severe disease.)  In South Africa, Omicron rapidly overtook the Delta variant, and Omicron cases appear to be doubling every two days in Britain.

“Such rapid transmission demands the United States double down on proven mitigation measures: face masks, distancing and improved ventilation. Rapid spread also poses a potential threat to hospitals already burdened by Delta and battered by nearly two years of pandemic.  ‘The sheer number of cases once again overwhelm unprepared health systems,’ Dr. Tedros warned.  Hospitals must prepare for another onslaught. And, critically, more people must get booster shots.

“A hint of why Omicron is spreading so fast comes from a study researchers at the LKS Faculty of Medicine at the University of Hong Kong just released.  They found that Omicron infects and multiplies 70 times faster than Delta in the human bronchus, the airways that conduct air into the lungs, but Omicron infection is somewhat weaker inside the lung.  The study, though not yet peer-reviewed and based on laboratory work, suggests that high amounts of the virus in the bronchus could help explain Omicron’s rapid transmission.

“But researchers still do not know if more cases will lead to more severe disease.  Early evidence suggests Omicron hospitalizations are not rising as quickly as they did with Delta.  If it turns out Omicron is milder and spreads wildly, that could be a blessing as the new variant displaces Delta.  But it is still too early to know; in a worst-case scenario, if Omicron causes severe Covid, the coming wave could be devastating….

“The country should hope Omicron is a timid kitty – but act as if it is a tiger.”

--The University of Florida is investigating possible violations of its research integrity policy following a 274-page faculty committee report that included claims of pressure to destroy and barriers to publish Covid-19 data.

It is the latest development of the university’s academic freedom saga, which began in late October when it became public that multiple professors were restricted from participating in lawsuits against the state.

University of Florida employees were told verbally not to criticize Gov. Ron DeSantis or UF policies related to Covid-19 in media interactions.

The committee report also discussed faculty members’ “grave concern about retaliation” and “a sense that anyone who objected to the state of affairs might lose his or her job or be punished in some way.”

--In a new ABC News/Ipsos poll, 53% of Americans still approve of President Biden’s handling of the coronavirus, but 45% disapprove.  Back in March, 72% of Americans approved of the president’s response to the pandemic.

Foreign Affairs

Iran: Tehran has agreed to let the United Nations atomic energy agency monitor its production of critical centrifuge parts, ending a three-month deadlock and averting a fresh diplomatic clash with the U.S.

The Iranian move offers a sliver of hope for negotiations between Iran, the U.S. and other powers on restoring the 2015 nuclear accord, by removing one of the plethora of issues of concern to Western officials.  Diplomats say those talks remain deadlocked.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran has agreed to allow inspectors to replace cameras before the end of the month at an assembly plant in Karaj, a city west of Tehran, where parts for centrifuges are made, allowing the agency to monitor activity.  Centrifuges are used to enrich uranium to higher levels of purity.

Iran resumed the production of advanced centrifuge parts at Karaj in late August, with no international monitoring.  That raised the prospect of centrifuges being manufactured and set aside for a future covert nuclear-weapons program, although there is no evidence of Iran doing that.

So the above was semi-positive, but at the same time, the Tehran Times published a warning to the State of Israel Wednesday under the headline “Just one wrong step,” with a map of targets that they claim are within Iran’s reach.

Brig.-Gen Yaron Rosen, former head of the IDF’s cyber headquarters, addressed the article on an Israeli radio program.

“The Iranians need to be taken seriously.  In general, we are in a period of negotiations over a nuclear agreement, and it is natural that the parties use words, but more important are the actions.  This is part of the negotiations….

“We have been in a long-running campaign, four decades against the Iranian regime – the world’s number one exporter of terrorism and missiles and the oppressor of the Iranian people, and the largest producer of regional instability.  Our determination is tested in all dimensions and what determines during the negotiation period is the credibility of the threat.  I mean words are nice, but the credibility of the threat and the ability to act,” he said.

“This is not just Israel’s problem. The United States needs us to be strong for the sake of negotiations, Israel needs to be strong and aggressive,” Rosen continued.

“The IDF, the State of Israel, will act in all dimensions to attack the Iranian nuclear program if it is decided at the political level, this is a possible action, its achievement will be certain, it may be limited, but both sides are in negotiations and we need to be credible in the threats we make against the Iranian side that is determined and insane on its own,” Rosen concluded.

Also this week, Britain, France and Germany said on Tuesday “we are rapidly reaching the end of the road” to save the nuke accord after Tehran accused Western powers of engaging in a “blame game.”

“Iran’s continued nuclear escalation means that we are rapidly reaching the end of the road,” France’s ambassador to the United Nations, Nicolas de Riviere, said at the world body, reading a joint statement from the three.  “We are nearing the point where Iran’s escalation of its nuclear program will have completely hollowed out the JCPOA,” he added, referring to the pact, named the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington continues to pursue diplomacy with Iran because “it remains, at this moment, the best option,” but added that it was “actively engaging with allies and partners on alternatives.”

Iran insists on immediate removal of all sanctions in a verifiable process.  Washington has said it would remove curbs “inconsistent” with the nuclear pact if Iran resumed compliance, implying it would leave in place others such as those imposed under terrorism or human rights measures.  Iran also seeks guarantees that “no U.S. administration” will renege on the pact again.

As for U.S.-Israeli relations over the Iran talks, Israeli leaders are concerned the Biden administration is intent on restoring the 2015 nuke deal in an agreement that would allow Tehran to just speed ahead with its uranium enrichment program.  Recent talks between the two sides in Washington did not go well, according to multiple reports.

According to William Burns, the CIA director, Iran has enriched uranium to 60 percent, 90 percent defined as bomb-grade purity.  But Burns argues Iran has not yet made a decision to weaponize its nuke program.

Russia/Ukraine: The two remain on the edge of conflict, with opposing forces facing each other from just 50 yards apart.

In an appearance on state TV on Sunday, Vladimir Putin lamented the collapse of the Soviet Union three decades ago as the demise of what he called “historical Russia” and said the economic crisis that followed was so bad he was forced to moonlight as a taxi driver.

“It was a disintegration of historical Russia under the name of the Soviet Union,” Putin said of the 1991 breakup, in comments aired on Sunday as part of a documentary film called “Russia. New History,” the RIA state news agency reported.  “We turned into a completely different country. And what has been built up over 1,000 years was largely lost,” he said, adding 25 million Russian people in newly independent countries suddenly found themselves cut off from Russia, part of what he called “a major humanitarian tragedy.”

Friday, Russia said it wanted a legally binding guarantee that the NATO military alliance would give up any military activity in Eastern Europe and Ukraine, part of a wish list of ambitious security guarantees it wants to negotiate with the West.  The demands form a package that Moscow says is an essential requirement for lowering tensions in Europe and defusing a crisis over Ukraine, which Western countries have accused Russia of sizing up for a potential new attack – which the Kremlin denies.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told reporters that Russia and the West must start from a clean sheet in building relations.  “The line pursued by the United States and NATO over recent years to aggressively escalate the security situation is absolutely unacceptable and extremely dangerous,” he said.  “Washington and its NATO allies should immediately stop regular hostile actions against our country, including unscheduled exercises, dangerous rapprochements and maneuvers of military ships and planes, and stop the military development of Ukrainian territory,” he said.

Of course this is the same Russia that, unannounced, blew a satellite out of the air on a missile test, creating millions of pieces of space debris that endangered its own cosmonauts on the International Space Station, let alone ours, and endangers thousands of other satellites.

Putin and President Biden may, or may not, hold another call by year end to go over Russia’s demands.

Walter Russell Mead / Wall Street Journal

“Vladimir Putin is having a good crisis in Ukraine. True, the Russian army hasn’t entered Kyiv, but Mr. Putin doesn’t need to achieve his maximum objectives to put some points on the board. At minimal cost, the Russian president’s Ukraine moves have increased his political standing and promoted his agenda at home.

“First and foremost, Ukraine is a popular issue in Russia. Many Russians care more about Ukraine than their Chinese counterparts care about Taiwan.  Ukraine is a larger and economically more important territory than Taiwan. It was an integral part of the Russian empire and the Soviet Union for more than 300 years, and many Russians consider it the cradle of Russian civilization.  While most Russians wouldn’t welcome a long, ugly war in Ukraine, talking tough on Ukraine and drawing international attention to Russia’s feelings is something a lot of Russians think their president should do.

“Second, the crisis is making Russia feel great again. Like many people in Britain and France, many Russians are nostalgic for the old days of empire.  They want Russia to count for something.  Provoking an international crisis over Ukraine has put the spotlight on Russia, monopolized the G-7 summit and driven the American-led ‘Summit for Democracy’ off the front pages. Mr. Putin has dominated world news and scored a crisis summit with President Biden; to many Russians, that already looks like a win.

“Third, the crisis divides American opinion even as it unites Russians. The Biden administration has been distracted from China.  Progressive doves in the Democratic Party are attacking Mr. Biden for his bellicosity over Ukraine while some so-called national conservatives on the right sympathize with Mr. Putin.  Many centrist Democrats and never-Trumpers attack what they see as Mr. Biden’s weakness over Ukraine.  From Mr. Putin’s perspective, there is no downside to any of this.

“Mr. Putin has other angles to play.  India’s relationship with Russia, boosted by Indian dismay over the hasty American withdrawal from Afghanistan, is a significant problem for Washington’s Indo-Pacific policy.  In the past two years Russia has resumed its longtime role as India’s top arms supplier….

“The Ukraine crisis so far has been all gain for Mr. Putin and no loss.  The question now is whether he gains more by letting the crisis cool quietly or whether he will continue to turn up the temperature with threats, cyberattacks, incursions by pro-Russian militias or more blatant provocations up to and possibly including the occupation of more Ukrainian territory by Russian forces….

“By manufacturing a Ukraine crisis out of thin air, Mr. Putin has created a significant diplomatic and political asset for himself.  Until the West finds ways to make the crisis-manufacturing business less profitable for the Kremlin, we must expect Russia to continue down this path.”

Meanwhile, Putin told British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Monday that members of the NATO military alliance were threatening Russia by expanding activity in Ukraine, the Kremlin said.

Johnson warned Putin that any destabilizing action against Ukraine would be a strategic mistake with significant consequences, Downing Street said.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“The gushing remarks at Wednesday’s video meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have drawn renewed attention to an underplayed story: The tightening strategic embrace between America’s two most formidable geopolitical competitors.  Moscow and Beijing have held each other at arm’s length for decades, but as the world becomes less stable, both see regional advantages from rolling back American power and prosperity.

“ ‘China-Russia relations have emerged from all kinds of tests to demonstrate new vitality,’ said the Chinese Foreign Ministry account of the discussion.  It added that ‘Russia will be the most staunch supporter of the Chinese government’s legitimate position on Taiwan-related issues.’  In his introductory remarks, Mr. Putin hailed ‘a new model of cooperation’ between the two countries.  He will travel to Beijing and meet Mr. Xi in person early next year.

“This is more than talk.  Joint military exercises between the two powers have been accelerating, including a naval demonstration in the Sea of Japan in October.  Russian and Chinese warplanes have repeatedly intruded on South Korean airspace since 2019, most recently last month.  Moscow surged its supply of military equipment to Beijing in the years after seizing Crimea in 2014.

“The nations don’t need to present a single strategic front to imperil American interests. They can do so by pushing on different fronts simultaneously in hopes of sapping American power.

“The military crisis Mr. Putin has generated over Ukraine works to Mr. Xi’s advantage, drawing U.S. focus from the defense of Taiwan. And if China starts a shooting war in Asia, Moscow could calculate that it’s more likely to get away with its own territorial expansion.  A war in either region could trigger conflict in the other.

“Both powers are also giving Iran crucial support as Tehran fights U.S.-led sanctions against its nuclear program.  Mr. Putin’s new defense agreement with India also redounds to China’s benefit by pulling India away from the U.S.

“The rising entente between Beijing and Moscow underscores the growing threats to the U.S.-led international order.  The new reality means the U.S. needs to shore up its own alliances while also moving more quickly than it has to build military and cyber defenses that can meet this more dangerous world.”

The above was published in the Journal Wednesday evening.  If it sounds familiar, this was part of my opening eleven days earlier, WIR 12/4.  It makes too much sense that if one acts, the other will do the same.

On their video call, Xi accused “certain forces in the world” of meddling in both countries’ domestic affairs under the pretext of democracy and human rights. He told Putin that “efforts must be made to firmly reject hegemonic acts and the Cold War mentality under the disguise of multilateralism and rules,” according to China’s Foreign Ministry.

China: Editorial / Washington Post

“As the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics approach, the host nation continues to display its true colors. The latest evidence that the world will gather in China under the auspices of a ruthless dictatorship comes from the former British colony of Hong Kong, restored to Chinese sovereignty in 1997.  There, the communist regime has been busily stamping out freedom’s last vestiges.

“On Monday, a judge sentenced publisher Jimmy Lai to 13 months in prison for inciting an unlawful assembly on June 4, 2020.  His misdeed?  Lighting a candle in commemoration of the pro-democracy demonstrators who died at the hands of the Chinese military in Tiananmen Square 31 years before.  Mr. Lai said nothing as he made this gesture, though he did so in the presence of international media.  The sentencing judge granted no mercy anyway: ‘His presence at the press conference was a deliberate act to rally support for and publicly spotlight the unauthorized assembly that followed,’ she wrote.  ‘He need not use words of incitement to intend to incite others.’

“Mr. Lai was one of eight people sentenced in connection with the 2020 protest.  That event sought to continue Hong Kong democrats’ annual custom of commemorating the Tiananmen massacre – one in which thousands regularly took part.  What was new was the government’s oppressive ban on assemblies, imposed ostensibly to fight Covid-19. ‘Let us not delude ourselves that this is all about Covid-19 and that the criminalization of the vigil is only an exceptional measure at an exceptional time,’ one of Mr. Lai’s co-defendants said in court.  ‘What happened here is instead one step in the systemic erasure of history, both of the Tiananmen Massacre and Hong Kong’s own history of civic resistance.’  Indeed, when June 4 came around this year, the Hong Kong government cracked down on demonstrations….

“Unoriginal though China’s repression may be, Mr. Lai’s courage in the face of it astounds.  ‘Let me suffer the punishment of this crime,’ he wrote in a statement his lawyer read aloud to the court, ‘so I may share the burden and glory of those young men and women who shed their blood on June 4 to proclaim truth, justice and goodness.’  The candle of defiance that Mr. Lai lit still illuminates Hong Kong’s cause, as it will long after the Olympic flame goes out.”

North Korea: Pyongyang reportedly executed at least seven people in the past decade for watching or selling K-pop videos.

The disturbing revelation was documented in a new report from a South Korean-based human rights group that was reviewed by Fox News.

Titled “Mapping Killings Under Kim Jong-Un,” the lengthy report by the Transitional Justice Working Group uncovered at least seven executions in the hermit Kingdom dating back to 2012 connected to the indulgence of K-pop.

The executions were reportedly sometimes done in public as a warning sign to others – and relatives of those put to death were often forced to witness the deadly punishments.

The alleged executions under Kim’s reign were mapped out with the help of 639 defectors who cooperated with the report’s authors.

Afghanistan: As everyone knew when Joe Biden initiated his catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan…everyone except Biden himself, it seems…the health care system in the country would collapse and that indeed is the case.  It can only function in a limited manner with a lifeline from aid organizations.

Wages haven’t been paid in three months, there are severe shortages of equipment and drugs, and a lack of food.

Some of the staff in the few real hospitals are facing such severe financial difficulties that they are selling their household furniture to make ends meet.

Oxygen is a huge issue because the hospitals can’t run their generators as they can’t afford the diesel.  Instead, oxygen cylinders for Covid-19 patients are bought from a local supplier.

Haiti: As if it didn’t have enough problems already, the death toll from a fuel truck explosion killed at least 75, as doctors scrambled to treat the wounded from an incident that officials say was made more deadly by residents approaching the vehicle in a desperate search for fuel.

The accident took place Monday in Haiti’s second-largest city of Cap-Haitien.

A witness told Reuters that the fuel truck had flipped over after its driver tried to avoid hitting a motorcycle. The driver warned people not to go near the truck.  But a crowd gathered around to siphon off its gas before the truck exploded, scorching everything in a 100-yard radius.

Random Musings

--Presidential approval ratings….

Gallup: 42% approve of President Biden’s job performance, 55% disapprove, 37% of independents approve (Nov. 1-16).  Thought we’d get an update this week.

Rasmussen: 41% approve, 58% disapprove (Dec. 17)

The aforementioned CNN Poll had Biden’s approval rating at 49%, 51% disapproval.

--The House of Representatives voted to hold ex-Trump chief of Staff Mark Meadows in contempt of Congress, paving the way for prosecution, the case referred to the Justice Department, which will ultimately decide whether to formally charge him.

The vote fell largely along party lines, 222-208.

Meadows potentially faces up to a year in prison and a $100,000 fine.

Before Meadows said he would stop cooperating with a congressional panel investigating the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol, he had provided the committee with about 9,000 pages of records regarding the events, before reversing course and claiming that his communications are protected by executive privilege.

After Meadows twice refused to appear at scheduled depositions, the House select committee investigating Jan. 6 voted unanimously to recommend that the House hold him in contempt.

As for records already turned over, Wyoming Republican Rep. Liz Cheney read texts to Meadows that fateful day Monday night at a hearing of the committee, and they clearly showed Fox News hosts – specifically Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham and Brian Kilmeade – who were alarmed by Trump’s response at the time, even though they have never held the former president responsible when discussing the matter on their programs in the months since.

The texts also revealed how the Fox News hosts are careful not to offend Trump’s base – even when they are personally disturbed by the former president’s actions.

Hannity and Ingraham are incapable of apologizing and so on Tuesday they lashed out at the messenger, with Hannity referring to the committee’s investigation as “a sham” and “a witch hunt” intended to damage Trump and his chances of running for president again in 2024.

“Where is the outrage in the media over my private text messages being released again publicly?” Hannity told his viewers.  “Do we believe in privacy?  Apparently not.”

Hannity then went back to his usual rationale for Jan. 6, where he repeatedly asked why Congress has not formed a commission to investigate the unrest in cities across the country that erupted in 2020 following the police killing of George Floyd.

“These lawmakers, they don’t really care about you,” Hannity said.  “If they did, they would have a committee, they would have a commission.  They care about their house, not your house.  They care about their neighborhood, not your neighborhood.”

Hannity did not discuss Trump’s action that day – he shut down Geraldo Rivera, a guest on his Tuesday show, when he tried to raise the issue – even though his texts to Meadows clearly indicated he was disturbed that the former president didn’t act fast enough to stop the violence on Jan. 6.

“Can he make a statement?  Ask people to leave the Capitol?” Hannity wrote to Meadows, according to the texts ready by Cheney.

On Hannity’s program that aired the night of the Capitol riots, he did condemn those who breached the Capitol.

“All of today’s perpetrators must be arrested and prosecuted to the full extent of the law,” he said.  “Every good and decent American we know will and must condemn what happened at the Capitol.”

Laura Ingraham texted Meadows on Jan. 6: “Mark, the president needs to tell people in the Capitol to go home.  This is hurting all of us.  He is destroying his legacy.”

But on the night of Jan. 6, Ingraham made unsubstantiated claims that the insurrectionists were “likely not all Trump supporters” and that Antifa sympathizers “may have been sprinkled in the crowd.”

Tuesday, Ingraham said there was no difference in what the texts revealed and what she said on the air.

“Both publicly and privately I said what I believe that the breach of the Capitol on Jan. 6 was a terrible thing – crimes were committed, some people were unfairly hounded and persecuted and prosecuted but it was not an insurrection,” she said.  “To say anything different is beyond dishonest and it ignores the facts of that day.”

Donald Trump Jr. was texting Meadows throughout the chaos of Jan. 6, imploring him to get his father to “condemn this shit ASAP.  The Capitol Police tweet is not enough.”

“I’m pushing it hard,” Meadows responded. “I agree.”

“We need an Oval address,” Trump Jr. wrote back.  “He has to lead now. It has gone too far and gotten out of hand.”

--Along the lines of the above, a retired U.S. Army colonel, Phil Waldron, circulated a proposal to challenge the 2020 election, including by declaring a national security emergency and seizing paper ballots, while visiting the White House on multiple occasions after the election.

Waldron told the Washington Post this week that he met with Mark Meadows “maybe eight to 10 times” and briefed several members of Congress on the eve of the Jan. 6 riot.

Waldron briefed Trump’s outside lawyers and lawmakers on a PowerPoint presentation detailing “Options for 6 JAN.”    He said his contribution to the presentation focused on his claims of foreign interference in the vote, as did his discussions with the White House.

It became public this week that Mark Meadows turned over Waldron’s presentation to the select committee.

The PowerPoint circulated by Waldron included proposals for Vice President Pence on Jan. 6 to reject electors from “states where fraud occurred” or replace them with Republican electors.  It included a third proposal in which the certification of Joe Biden’s victory was to be delayed, and U.S. marshals and National Guard troops were to help “secure” and count paper ballots in key states.

Numerous ballot recounts and legal proceedings have confirmed that there was no evidence of any significant fraud in the 2020 election.

Mark Meadows saw the presentation on Jan. 5, but it’s not clear how widely the PowerPoint was circulated or how seriously the ideas in it were considered.

Waldron told the Washington Post that he attended a Nov. 25 meeting with Trump and several Pennsylvania legislators in the Oval Office. During that period, the president was meeting with legislators from key states and urging them to reject the official vote counts in their states.

--Donald Trump lost his bid to shield his tax returns from the House Ways and Means Committee on Tuesday, after a federal judge dismissed the case.

The ruling from U.S. District Judge Trevor McFadden may still be appealed, but it marks a significant win for Democrats in more than two years of attempts to obtain Mr. Trump’s tax returns.  It would take separate actions by the Ways and Means Committee to make any of the documents public.

“Even if the former President is right on the facts, he is wrong on the law,” the judge, who was nominated by Trump, wrote in a 45-page ruling.  “A long line of Supreme Court cases requires great deference to facially valid congressional inquiries.  Even the special solicitude accorded former Presidents does not alter the outcome.”

--In an interview with the San Francisco Chronicle’s Tal Kopan, Vice President Kamala Harris’ hometown paper, with Harris looking to press the “reset” button, Kopan wrote: “Harris twice did not directly answer a question about lessons she had learned and whether she wished she’d done anything differently over the past year.”

Instead, she said the press coverage of her has been “ridiculous.”

As in the media is to blame for everything, including, I guess, the departure of two senior staffers  after just one year.

--Chris Wallace, the veteran Fox News anchor who was rigorous, fair and balanced, unlike his prime-time colleagues, announced Sunday he is leaving the network and will join CNN’s forthcoming streaming news channel.

Wallace’s departure is a coup for CNN and a blow for Fox.  Along with fellow anchor Bret Baier, Wallace was the face of Fox’s news coverage who the network brass would point to as proof of its journalistic bona fides when it came under fire for an increasing reliance on opinion-driven coverage – led by Tucker Carlson and Hannity – that boosted Donald Trump and his allies.

But Wallace’s tough interviews of Trump and political figures on both sides of the aisle often made news, solidifying his reputation as being nonpartisan.

Apparently, Wallace’s decision left many of his colleagues “shellshocked,” according to the Washington Post.  The news was so closely held that the panelists on Sunday’s show had no idea his announcement was coming.

Wallace offered no explanation for his departure.  “I want to try something new, to go beyond politics to all the things I’m interested in,” he said, somewhat vaguely.  “I’m ready for a new adventure.”

For now, a number of Fox journalists will rotate in the “Fox News Sunday” hosting role until a permanent replacement is named.

--Once the sun rose Saturday morning, revealing the extent of the damage in western Kentucky after the deadly tornadoes just hours earlier, Kentucky Republican Sen. Rand Paul wrote to President Biden and requested immediate federal assistance.

Paul asked Biden to “move expeditiously to approve the appropriate resources for our state,” citing the “loss of life and severe property damage.”

Biden declared a federal disaster the next day – making Kentucky eligible for the full range of emergency government assistance.

But this is the same Rand Paul who has a history of opposing congressional legislation written to address past disasters, including bills passed following hurricanes Sandy, Harvey and Maria that directed $billions to struggling Americans.

Yes, brazen hypocrisy on the part of Sen. Paul.

Tuesday, when asked about the criticism, Paul lashed out at his critics and said they were distorting his record.

“We’re concerned with burying our dead and mourning those who have died right now,” he said.  “I think it’s sad that people on the left who have an agenda in the midst of people dying can’t come together to try to help people in their time of need but instead want to score cheap political points, most of which is untrue.”

I gave $100 to relief efforts in Kentucky the other day.  The following is the official Kentucky government fund, with no administrative expenses.

TeamWKYReliefFund.ky.gov

--George F. Will / Washington Post…on a potential Chris Christie run for president.

“Trump’s most successful policies – tax cuts, deregulation, judges evaluated by Federal Society criteria – did not differ from those of actual Republicans. His manner emphatically did.  More than a smidgen of pugnacity might be needed by a Republican presidential candidate attempting to hold Trump voters while winning back those repelled by him.  If combativeness without infantile name-calling and pathological lying is the recipe, Christie might be the chef….

“Jeffrey H. Anderson, president of the American Main Street Initiative, argues (in the Claremont Review of Books) that the Republican road to the White House runs through Big Ten country: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa.  In two elections, Trump won more victories in these states (7) than Republican presidential candidates had won over the previous seven elections combined.  Christie’s implicit case for himself is that he can appeal to the Trumpist majority of the Republican base without further debasing it, the GOP and the nation….

“Christie is daring to acknowledge, and demonstrating a willingness to undertake, the political contortions necessary to propel the Republican Party up from Trump, away from performative entertainment and back to politics.  Christie is saying: No one worked harder than I did to put my friend of 20 years in office and keep him there, and he is a liar, and a relic.

“Christie says he does not want to make his divergences from Trump ‘personal,’ but he surely knows that for Trump everything is personal.  Christie inveighs against ‘wallowing in the past’ and ‘the quicksand of endless grievances.’  In Florida, the thick man with the thin skin is wondering to whom Christie refers, and will not be forgiving just because Christie was, as he repeatedly reminds readers, ‘the first major officeholder’ to endorse Trump.

“The Trump parenthesis in Republican politics will not end without a fight.  One pugilist seems ready.”

--New York City Mayor-elect Eric Adams selected a Long Island police officer to become the first female commissioner of the NYPD in its 176-year history.

Keechant Sewell, the chief of detectives for the Nassau County Police Department, was picked for the top post after doing a “fantastic” job in interviews with Adams and his team, according to a source.

Sewell, 49, “is a proven crime fighter with the experience and emotional intelligence to deliver both the safety New Yorkers need and the justice they deserve,” Adams said in a statement.  “Chief Sewell will wake up every day laser-focused on keeping New Yorkers safe and improving our city, and I am thrilled to have her at the helm of the NYPD.”

Sewell’s selection was a big surprise, as Adams had conducted a national search and among those under consideration were Seattle Police Chief Carmen Best and Philadelphia Chief Danielle Outlaw.

--Drug and alcohol use among U.S. teens saw a record decline in 2021, according to a nationwide survey published Wednesday by the National Institute on Drug Abuse.

Researchers recorded the largest single-year drop in the use of substances such as alcohol, marijuana and vaped nicotine among teens since the survey began in 1975.

While researchers say the reasons behind the decline in substance use is still unclear, it may be “one unexpected potential consequence of the pandemic,” Richard Miech, principal investigator of the study, told USA Today.

“A lot of kids were at home learning remotely,” Miech said.  “So they weren’t exposed to peer pressure at school.  Schools are often a source for many kids to get their drugs, so they couldn’t have that either.  And then there were fewer parties, fewer opportunities to hang out with peers unsupervised by parents.”

Alcohol use fell from 21% to 17% among eighth-graders, from 41% to 29% among 10th-graders, and from 55% to 47% among 12th-graders.

Marijuana use declined from 11% to 7% among eighth-graders, from 28% to 17% among 10th-graders, and from 35% to 31% among 12th-graders.

--Religious affiliation in the U.S. has continued to fall during the pandemic, according to a new survey from the Pew Research Center.

The percentage of Americans who identify as Christians now stands at 63%, down from 65% in 2019 and from 78% in 2007.  Meanwhile, 29% of Americans now identify as having no religion, up from 26% in 2019 and 16% in 2007, when Pew began tracking religious identity.

Many places of worship closed during the pandemic – some voluntarily, others as a result of state and local social-distancing rules – and in-person church attendance is roughly 30% to 50% lower than it was before the pandemic, estimates Barna Group, a research firm that studies faith in the U.S.  Millions of Americans moved to worshiping online, and questions linger about how many will come back in person.

--Thankfully, California and its mountains were pounded by a huge storm Monday night into Tuesday, with up to 7 inches of rain in some parts of southern California (a few mudslides, but much needed water) and an average of 2-4 feet of badly needed snow in the mountains, with some areas receiving over 6 feet.  This is good, sports fans.

We need more storms like this or next summer is going to be ugly on the drought front.  More precipitation is in the forecast a few days next week.

--What we don’t need, after last weekend’s historic tornado outbreak, is then another event as we saw Wednesday…another $1 billion in damages event, including a first-ever tornado in Minnesota and a record 55 ‘high wind’ reports, meaning 55 cases of hurricane force winds across portions of the Midwest and the Rocky Mountain states.  Lamar, Colorado (not in the Rockies) reported a wind speed of 107 mph! 

--Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organization verified the highest temperature ever recorded in the Arctic – 38C (100F) – sounding “alarm bells” over Earth’s changing climate.

The WMO, a UN agency, said the extreme heat was “more befitting the Mediterranean than the Arctic.”

Last year’s extreme heat in the region contributed to the spread of wildfires, which swept across the forests and peatlands of northern Russia releasing record amounts of carbon.

The high temperatures across Siberia led to “massive sea ice loss” and played a major role in 2020 being one of the three warmest years on record, the WMO said.

Warming in the Arctic is leading to the thawing of once permanently frozen permafrost below ground.

It’s alarming, because as permafrost thaws, carbon dioxide and methane previously locked up below ground is released.  And these greenhouse gases can cause further warming, and further thawing of the permafrost, in a vicious cycle known as a positive feedback loop.

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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

President Biden awarded the Medal of Honor Thursday to three soldiers who fought in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Sgt. 1st Class Christopher Celiz, an Army Ranger who died after stepping between Taliban fighters and a U.S. helicopter evacuating wounded in 2018; Master Sgt. Earl Plumlee, a Special Forces soldier who fought off Taliban insurgents after a massive attack in Afghanistan in 2013; and Sgt. 1st Class Alwyn Cashe, 35, who suffered fatal injuries in Iraq while rescuing fellow soldiers from a burning vehicle in 2005.

Cashe becomes the first Black service member to receive the Medal of Honor for actions since Vietnam.

God bless America.

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Gold $1798
Oil $70.29

Returns for the week 12/13-12/17

Dow Jones  -1.7%  [35365]
S&P 500  -1.9%  [4620]
S&P MidCap  -1.9%
Russell 2000  -1.7%
Nasdaq  -3.0%  [15169]

Returns for the period 1/1/21-12/17/21

Dow Jones  +15.6%
S&P 500  +23.0%
S&P MidCap  +18.3%
Russell 2000  +10.1%
Nasdaq  +17.7%

Bulls 43.9
Bears 24.4

Hang in there.  Get a booster.

I will be doing a column Christmas Eve…roughly same time.

Brian Trumbore

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