Week in Review

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Week in Review

11/18/2023

For the week 11/13-11/17

[Posted 5:00 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,283

U.S. public support for Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza is eroding and most Americans think Israel should call a ceasefire to a conflict that has ballooned into a humanitarian crisis, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Some 32% of respondents in the two-day opinion poll, which closed on Tuesday, said “the U.S. should support Israel” when asked what role the United States should take in the fighting. That was down from 41% who said the U.S. should back Israel in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Oct. 12-13.

The share saying “the U.S. should be a neutral mediator” rose to 39% in the new poll from 27% a month earlier.  Four percent said the U.S. should support Palestinians and 15% said the U.S. shouldn’t be involved at all, both similar readings to a month ago.

An NPR poll this week found a 12-point rise from a month ago in the number of Americans who think the Israeli response has been “too much.”  However, “a majority of Republicans (52%) said the response has been about right, up 8 points from last month,” according to NPR.

About 36% don’t want to authorize funding for either Israel’s war against Hamas or Ukraine’s defense against a Russian invasion. And a similar percentage, 35%, support funding both wars.  “Another 14% only want to provide funding to Israel, and 12% only to Ukraine,” NPR reports.

And surprisingly, NPR found “51% of Republicans said [the U.S.] should focus more on its own problems and play less of a leadership role,” which is “a huge shift from the hawkishness of the not-so-distant GOP past.”

Meanwhile, I get into the situation at Gaza’s Al-Shifa hospital below in great detail, but in terms of the Israel Defense Forces claims about the place, as I go to post, no real smoking gun has been found, just a possible tunnel shaft and some weapons inside the hospital.  As the Jerusalem Post opined, “the IDF had presented a much weaker case to the world about Hamas’ presence at the hospital than expected.”

The Post asks, for example, “Did 200 Hamas forces, who IDF intelligence claims were present at Shifa hospital after Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel, vanish out of thin air?”

JP: “The IDF announced zero arrests and even foreign media only mentioned two arrests, with five Hamas terrorists being killed just outside the hospital, but none inside – not even a single gunfight.”

And: “Why did the IDF find more traces of hostages and more powerful weapons, like rocket propelled grenades, at the Rantisi Hospital only a few days ago?”

“Did Hamas learn from the evidence it left behind for Israel there and do a better clean up job before fleeing Shifa?

“If so, why did the IDF do Rantisi first? Did it not realize that Hamas might learn from that experience and clean up better at Shifa?”

As the Jerusalem Post also points out, “Yes, the IDF has control of northern Gaza, has destroyed significant weapons, significant numbers of tunnels, and killed probably more than 5,000 Hamas terrorists between Gaza and the southern Israel battles.

“But if Hamas has 30,000 fighters as the IDF recently said, the vast majority of Hamas’ forces have not been touched.

“A week or so ago, the IDF could credibly argue it would find most of them in tunnels in northern Gaza.

“But at this point, after Hamas escaped Rantisi and Shifa, are they all in southern Gaza? Blended into the civilian population in both the North and the South? Is it possible some have even escaped Gaza to other territories?”

Tonight, as I post, there is very heavy shelling of northern Gaza.

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Congress avoided a government shutdown today, Nov. 17, which had been the latest deadline, as House Speaker Mike Johnson, using an unusual approach of a “laddered” continuing resolution (CR), pushed the fight to next year.

Under the two-tiered plan, some funding would run out on Jan. 19 and the rest would expire Feb. 2, which the speaker hopes will force the House and Senate to negotiate on the dozen appropriation measures.

While some decried the move as “gimmicky,” it passed the House by a 336 to 95 margin; 209 Democrats joining 127 Republicans for approval, 2 Dems and 93 GOP lawmakers opposed.

The bill contained no spending cuts, which infuriated hardline conservatives while winning over many Democrats who saved Johnson by pushing it through.

It’s the exact same sort of bipartisan deal that ended up being the demise of then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

The Senate then passed the CR, 87-11, sending it to the White House.

No new funding for Ukraine, Israel, the Pacific region, or border security, as the White House had requested.  But Biden signed it.

Speaker Johnson, though, has promised to avoid stopgaps in the future, so January and February will be a totally different story.

As for the shenanigans on Tuesday in both the House and the Senate, let’s just say I’m kind of a fan of Tennessee Republican Rep. Tim Burchett, who had an issue with Kevin McCarthy, and I like Oklahoma Republican Sen. Markwayne Mullin, though I wasn’t thrilled to see him invite a Teamsters boss to duke it out.  Granted, the Teamsters president, Sean O’Brien, is a total dirtball, but it wasn’t the kind of thing you want to see in these hallowed halls.

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As for the talks between President Biden and Chinese President Xi outside San Francisco on Wednesday, yes, as Winston Churchill said, “Meeting jaw-to-jaw is better than war.”  [Churchill’s official biographer, Sir Martin Gilbert, said this was the correct quote, not the better known “Jaw, Jaw is better than war, war.”]

So the two great power leaders chatted for about four hours, but what they really talked all that time about who knows because in the end, little was outwardly achieved, even as Biden claimed “important progress” in stabilizing the relationship.  We hope this is true, but only time will tell.

There were no major breakthroughs, just modest agreements to resume military communications, and this indeed is important, if it’s really the case, and China said it will help combat the spread of fentanyl, which I don’t believe Beijing will ever do…it’s part of their grand plan. So a big “whatever” to that.

I have no problem with what Biden did say at a news conference after: “We’re in a competitive relationship, China and the United States. But my responsibility is to make this rational and manageable so it doesn’t result in conflict. That’s what I’m all about. That’s what this is about. To find a place where we can come together and find mutual interests.”

And Biden said that the two agreed if either man had a concern, “we should pick up the phone and call one another and we’ll take the call. That’s important progress.”

But then as he was leaving the news conference, he stopped to answer one more question about whether he still viewed Xi as a “dictator,” a term he used earlier in the year, and Biden said, “Well, look, he is…here’s a guy who runs a country that’s a communist country.”

That’s truthful, albeit not exactly diplomatic while Xi was still on U.S. soil and a mere hour after their discussions.

Biden answered a question on Israel’s assault on Al-Shifa hospital by saying, “Hamas does have headquarters, weapons, materiel in this hospital and, I suspect, others.”  But as noted above, where’s the evidence Al-Shifa was a major HQ?  I think the president, as he is wont to do these days, brain shrinking up, just winged it.

For his part, seriously, it was taken as a positive signal when later Wednesday, Xi said China would send the U.S. new pandas, just a week after three from the National Zoo were returned to China.  There are only four left in the United States – at the Atlanta Zoo, and their loan agreement expires next year.

We’re really talking about the incredibly overrated pandas, though I’ll grant you America’s zoos have played along because for some reason people find them cute. Anyway, this was a major takeaway.

Before the discussions behind closed doors, Xi did tell Biden: “Planet Earth is big enough for the two countries to succeed.”

Biden told Xi: “I think it’s paramount that you and I understand each other clearly, leader-to-leader, with no misconceptions or miscommunications. We have to ensure competition does not veer into conflict.”

We were told after that the two leaders had a significant back and forth over Taiwan, with Biden chiding China over its massive military build-up around Taiwan and Xi telling Biden he had no plans to invade the island, according to a U.S. official.

Biden also called on Xi to use his influence with Iran and Russia, and I’m sure Xi just smiled, or rather smirked…he’s a big smirker.

According to a statement released by China Central Television, the state broadcaster, Xi was most focused on Taiwan and the U.S. sanctions and restrictions against Chinese products and businesses.

Xi urged the U.S. to support China’s peaceful unification with the self-governed island, calling Taiwan “the most important and most sensitive issue” in the bilateral relations.  He added that China’s territorial ambitions toward Taiwan are “unstoppable” and ordered Washington to stop arming it.

[By the way, during the working lunch with inner-circle members from both administrations, they ate “ravioli, chicken and broccolini, with almond meringue cake and praline buttercream for dessert.”]

Here’s my bottom line.  Again, I’m glad they talked.  But Xi made it abundantly clear, ‘Don’t tell us what to do, Joe.’

Late Wednesday, Xi addressed American business executives like Apple’s Tim Cook at a $2,000-per plate dinner, as U.S. business leaders sought clarification on Beijing’s expanding security rules that may choke foreign investment.

“We are in an era of challenges and changes,” he said, according to an English language translation.  “It is also an era of hope. The world needs China and the United States to work together for a better future.”

But, “China has no intention to challenge the United States or unseat it,” he said.  “Likewise, the United States should not bet against China, or interfere in China’s internal affairs.”

And then he brought up the pandas…really…the freakin’ pandas.

More below….

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Israel / Gaza War….

--Last Friday night, Israel revised its official estimated death toll of the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks, lowering the number to about 1,200 from 1,400, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry said.  No details of the change were given, but the ministry emphasized that the numbers could continue to fluctuate as remains are identified.

Israeli health officials have said they have struggled to identify many Israelis and foreigners killed in the attacks, and to exclude the remains of those they considered to have been attackers from the official toll.

The task, officials said, was complicated as some of the attackers wore Israeli military uniforms or civilian clothing that created confusion about their identities.  In addition, there are still body parts that have not been linked to corpses.  It may take several weeks to finalize the number.

Some of the dead were burned alive or their bodies were otherwise brutally mutilated, requiring extensive testing to establish their identities, according to officials at Israel’s main forensic institute.

The dead include at least 845 civilians identified by health officials, in addition to members of Israeli security forces killed in the fighting on Oct. 7.

--On Saturday, Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan said that an international peace conference should be convened to find a permanent solution to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.

Erdogan was addressing a joint Islamic-Arab summit in Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh, where leaders gathered to urge Israel to end hostilities in Gaza.

“Israel is taking revenge…on Gazan babies, children and women,” Erdogan said, renewing his call for an immediate ceasefire.  “What is urgent in Gaza is not pauses for a few hours, rather we need a permanent ceasefire.”

The extraordinary summit urged the International Criminal Court to investigate “war crimes and crimes against humanity that Israel is committing” in the Palestinian territories, according to a final communique.

Saudi Arabia has sought to press the United States and Israel for an end to hostilities, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto leader, gathered Arab and Muslim leaders to reinforce that message.

Dozens of leaders including Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Erdogan, Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and Syrian President Bashar al- Assad, were in attendance.

Prince Mohammed (aka MBS) affirmed the kingdom’s “condemnation and categorical rejection of this barbaric war against our brothers in Palestine.”

“We are facing a humanitarian catastrophe that proves the failure of the Security Council and the international community to put an end to the flagrant Israeli violations of international laws,” he said in an address to the summit.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said Palestinians were facing a “genocidal war” and urged the United States to end Israeli “aggression.”

Raisi hailed Hamas for fighting against Israel and urged Islamic countries to impose oil and goods sanctions on Israel.

“There is no other way but to resist Israel. We kiss the hands of Hamas for its resistance against Israel,” Raisi said in his address.

This is nuts…but this is how quickly attitudes have changed, as understand, Raisi’s trip to Saudi Arabia is the first by an Iranian head of state in more than a decade.  Yes, Tehran and Riyadh formally ended years of hostility under a Chinese-brokered deal in March, but Raisi’s participation was highly significant.

Qatar’s emir said his country, where several Hamas leaders are based, leading a life of luxury, was seeking to mediate the release of Israeli hostages and hoped a humanitarian true would be reached soon.

“For how long will the international community treat Israel as if it is above international laws?” he asked.

Some Arab countries, led by Algeria, called for a complete cut in diplomatic ties with Israel.

But other Arab countries that have established diplomatic relations with Israel pushed back, stressing the need to keep channels open with Netanyahu’s government.

At a press conference in Tel Aviv, Netanyahu urged Arab leadership to “stand up against Hamas.”

“It only brought two things to the Gaza Strip – poverty and blood,” Netanyahu said.  “Hamas is an integral part of the terror axis that Iran leads and that axis of terror and hatred endangers the whole world and the whole Arab world.”

--Israel’s military threatened to widen the war to include southern Lebanon after Palestinian militants launched an attack Sunday that killed at least 10 Israeli civilians and wounded seven soldiers.

“What we can do in Gaza, we can also do in Beirut,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Saturday, directly warning Hezbollah against widening the regional conflict further.  “The public will know that Hezbollah has crossed a red line if Israel strikes Beirut,” Gallant said.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah earlier Saturday claimed his fighters recently attacked Israel using a missile with a 500-kg payload that he called the “Burkan.”

“The Israeli cruelty is intended to subjugate the people of the region and crush the legitimate demand for rights,” Nasrallah declared in his speech.

At the beginning of his remarks, Nasrallah referred to the conflict in Gaza, stating, “In Gaza, there are two events that are developing.  The first event is the Israeli aggression against the residents of Gaza, and the second event is the visible and significant response of Palestinian resistance against the enemy forces.

“The occupation turns to Lebanon after its crimes in Gaza and deliberate and cruel killings,” Nasrallah continued.  “The occupation is making a mistake again, and all its objectives will fail.”

Nasrallah then attacked the U.S.

According to him: “The one who can stop the aggression is the one who manages it – the United States. The one who manages and decides this battle is the American government, and all pressure must be directed towards the Americans.”

He also noted that “Israel has not achieved any accomplishment that it can present to its citizens; they are still unable to present an image of ‘victory’ or an image of ‘defeat’ to the resistance.”

--As of last weekend, the IDF claims it has intercepted more than 9,500 rockets.

--Sunday was marked by fierce clashes which continued in Gaza City as its largest hospital, Al-Shifa, announced it could no longer treat patients and has shut down.

It coincided with some progress being reported on a possible hostage agreement as senior Israeli and American officials said the framework of the deal included the release of 80 women and children.

The International Committee of the Red Cross said it was “shocked and appalled” by the reports coming from Gaza’s hospitals.  Doctors Without Borders described as “catastrophic” the situation at Al-Shifa.

Israel has frequently asserted that Hamas uses facilities such as Al-Shifa to hide military infrastructure, including underground tunnels.  Al-Shifa’s administrators and doctors have denied the claims.

Doctors and health officials reached by phone described scenes of panic, fear and death as power ran out entirely at some hospitals and ran low at others, shutting down incubators, intensive care facilities, machinery and lights.

At least two premature infants died when power was cut to the incubators, and 36 more babies’ lives were at risk, health officials said.  Four patients died when the intensive care unit shut down.  The reports from Gaza, however, couldn’t be confirmed.

Hamas on Sunday then said it was suspending hostage negotiations because of Israel’s attacks on the hospital.

According to the IDF, Hamas has already lost control of northern Gaza; the proof of this, it said, was the massive flow of refugees leaving northern Gaza for the south, despite the organization’s desire for Gaza residents to remain in their homes.  Hamas ministries are no longer functioning and the Hamas leadership has gone into hiding in underground tunnels, it claimed.

Hamas fighters were continuing to engage Israeli troops, causing casualties, and it seemed most senior Hamas leaders were still alive.  There are zero indications Hamas was about to surrender.

--The IDF said its forces advanced to the gates of Al Shifa on Monday.

With the fighting raging, foreign minister Eli Cohen estimated Israel has a diplomatic window of “about two to three weeks” to accomplish its military objectives in the Gaza Strip before international pressure to agree to a ceasefire becomes overwhelming.

In recent weeks, Israeli officials had estimated the military would need many months to achieve their aim of destroying Hamas’ capabilities.

--President Biden said on Monday that Gaza’s hospitals “must be protected,” as Israeli troops entered the Al-Shifa compound.  The World Health Organization warned of a “dire and perilous” situation for patients.  The WHO said in a statement that Al-Shifa “is not functioning as a hospital anymore,” after running out of fuel and water, risking the lives of patients.

“My hope and expectation is that there will be less intrusive action relative to hospitals,” Biden told reporters in the Oval Office.

Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, said at a briefing after that the United States and Israel “do not want to see firefights in hospitals.”

--Supporters of Israel rallied by the tens of thousands on the National Mall under heavy security Tuesday, voicing solidarity in the fight against Hamas and crying “never again.”

[Last Sunday in Paris, 180,000 marched against the rise in antisemitism in France.]

--Early Wednesday morning local time, the Israeli military entered Al-Shifa hospital, in what the IDF called a “precise and targeted operation against Hamas” and which doctors at the hospital described to the Washington Post as attacks on civilians.

Entering 2:00 a.m., by 11:00 a.m. Wednesday, IDF forces searching the hospital had not found any sign of hostages on the site, Israel’s Army Radio, which is operated by the military, said.

Israel and the United States have asserted that Hamas is using medical facilities to conceal its infrastructure, while Hamas has denied this and accused the White House of giving “a green light” for the operation.

A WHO representative in the occupied Palestinian territories, Rik Peeperkorn, said that according to their latest information, 34 of 39 premature infants in the hospital were still alive, and 82 bodies had been buried in a mass grave in the grounds.

A further 80 bodies remained unburied, he said, and there was no oxygen, power or water at the hospital. There are 633 patients there in total, plus around 500 staff and up to 4,000 people sheltering in the hospital grounds, he added.

By early Thursday, Israeli troops were still raiding Al-Shifa, though had uncovered little evidence of Hamas at the facility.

The IDF is insisting it has found “countless Hamas weapons” in the MRI building, according to a spokesman, who released a video Wednesday evening, but no evidence of a Hamas tunnel network connecting to the hospital, beyond what I referred to in my opening.

The White House, for its part, isn’t worried about the apparent lack of evidence so ar.  “We have our own intelligence that convinces us that Hamas was using Al-Shifa as a command and control node and most likely as well as a storage facility – that they were sheltering themselves in the hospital, using the hospital as a shield against military action and placing the patients and medical staff at greater risk,” John Kirby of the National Security Council said Thursday in a call with reporters.

--The UN World Food Program warned people in the Gaza Strip “are facing the immediate possibility of starvation.”  The UN says the enclave now faces a “massive” food gap and widespread hunger while nearly the entire population of Gaza is in “desperate” need of food assistance.

In a statement on Thursday, WFP executive director Cindy McCain said food and water supplies are “practically non-existent” in Gaza.

Friday, Israel said it would let more aid in.

--A large deployment of Israeli troops raided the Jenin refugee camp in the West Bank overnight Thursday, AFP reported.  Three Palestinians were killed in an Israeli drone strike in Jenin, Friday.

--At week’s end, the Hamas-run Palestinian health administration said at least 11,470 Palestinians had been killed in the Gaza Strip, with 4,700 being children and 3,150 women.  This can’t be verified.  But the ministry also stopped publishing updates after key officials based in the Al-Shifa hospital lost electricity and connectivity.

Israel said the death toll among its soldiers reached 54 late Thursday.

--Israel asked some residents in southern Gaza to evacuate at week’s end, suggesting that its invasion of the territory could be widening.  Most of northern Gaza now appears to be under Israel’s control.

--We learned late Thursday that U.S. and European officials are converging on a plan for international peacekeepers in Gaza, which would go against Tel Aviv’s public plans to date for the future of the Palestinian enclave once Israeli troops conclude their Gaza invasion.  According to Bloomberg, while details are lacking, the hope is to at least “push Israel to think more about wrapping up the campaign and consider what might come next.”

--Finally, regarding the violence in the West Bank…Serge Schmemann / New York Times:

“After the thousands of Israelis killed on Oct. 7, and the thousands more Palestinians in Gaza killed in the war against Hamas, it may appear unseemly to focus on the relatively small and sadly familiar clashes between settlers and Palestinians in the West Bank. But it would be a mistake to overlook the danger of the escalation in settler violence over the past month.

“That appears to be the calculation of the militant settlers and nationalist extremists in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, ardent champions of expanding the Jewish presence in occupied territories. By all accounts, the number of Palestinians displaced or killed in clashes with the Israeli Army have risen sharply since Oct. 7.  Right-wing extremists have cited the Hamas attack as justification, but they also seem keenly aware that the diversion of global and Israeli attention away from the West Bank offers cover for more audacious land grabs.

“The immediate danger is that the West Bank will also explode in large-scale violence, which could prove far bloodier and more destructive than previous uprisings.  Since Oct. 7, the Israeli Army has tightened travel restrictions around the West Bank and has increased the number of raids against suspected militant hideouts.  The Palestinians there whom I spoke to by telephone said people were aware of how terrible the consequences of an uprising would be….

“The Biden administration has made clear it is aware of the tensions.  ‘I continue to be alarmed about extremist settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank; pouring gasoline on fire is what it’s like,’ President Biden recently said.  ‘It has to stop now.’….

“Mr. Netanyahu, however, has shown little interest in restraining his allies. Though he formed a special war cabinet with opposition leaders to manage the conduct of the campaign against Hamas, his original coalition government remains intact, including the religious-nationalist extremists Bezalel Smotrich, the finance minister, and Itamar Ben-Gvir, the minister of national security, both unequivocal champions of settling Jews in the West Bank, which they refer to as the biblical Judea and Samaria.  Before the Hamas raid, the far-right government was pushing for ‘judicial reform’ which drew broad and sustained opposition in Israel as an attempt to free the government of judicial restraints on its actions in occupied territory.

“Despite the national preoccupation with Gaza over the past month – or perhaps because of it – the zealots have kept at it.  Mr. Smotrich has called for widening Palestinian no-go areas around Israeli settlements, including a ban on Palestinians harvesting olives near the settlements.  Mr. Ben-Gvir has dismissed concerns raised by Israeli intelligence agencies about settler violence, referring to it as nothing more than ‘graffiti’ by Israeli youths on Palestinian property and reportedly asking why there was so much attention given to it.

“It’s hardly graffiti.  According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 150 Palestinians, including 44 children, have been killed by Israeli forces, and eight others by Israeli settlers, since Oct. 7, and at least 111 households comprising 905 people were displaced. In that same time, three Israeli soldiers were killed in attacks by Palestinians….

“The figures don’t give the full story of the ways in which Palestinians are terrorized: the uprooting of hundreds of their olive trees, the vandalizing of property, the beatings and shootings, and the roads and outposts the settlers, and sometimes the army, have built to connect settlements and outposts.  In an incident reported by the Times last week, a Palestinian vendor and his family were picking olives when four armed Jewish settlers showed up and began yelling. The Palestinians fled, but the vendor, Bilal Mohammed Saleh, turned back to grab his phone.  Mr. Saleh was shot dead, the seventh Palestinian to be killed by settlers since Oct. 7.

“Palestinians have also found threatening leaflets under their windshield wipers, with messages like: ‘A great catastrophe will descend upon your heads soon.  We will destroy every enemy and expel you forcefully from our Holy Land that God has written for us. Wherever you are, carry your loads immediately and leave to where you came from.  We are coming for you.’….

“The Biden administration and the American people have shown extraordinary support for Israel, both moral and material, and much more is on the way.  That is good and proper: Israel is a close ally and faces formidable hostility in its neighborhood and the world. It shows no lack of respect for the Jewish state, and its struggle, to condemn the extremist minority whose goals and methods only undermine any chance for eventual peace and the real security Israelis so ardently seek.  Mr. Biden and his lieutenants must be unequivocal in their demand that Israel take serious measures to restrain the zealots, including those in government.”

Since day one of ‘Week in Review,’ nearly 25 years, I have vehemently opposed the Israeli far right.  Mr. Schmemann echoes my long-held thoughts perfectly.

Benjamin Netanyahu needed the support of the religious right, the zealots, to return to power a last time and it’s sickening. 

Schmemann wrote his piece last Saturday.  Tuesday, Israeli forces killed at least eight Palestinians in the West Bank, seven of them in clashes during a raid in the town of Tulkarm.

The Israeli army and police said their forces were sent into Tulkarm to detain suspected militants, came under fire and killed several Palestinian gunmen in the ensuing skirmish.

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This Week in Ukraine….

--President Volodymyr Zelensky warned Ukrainians on Sunday to prepare for new waves of Russian attacks on infrastructure as winter approached and said troops were anticipating an onslaught in the eastern theater of war.

Zelensky issued his warning during his nightly video address a day after Russian forces carried out their first missile attack on Kyiv in some seven weeks.

“We are almost halfway through November and must be prepared for the fact that the enemy may increase the number of drone or missile strikes on our infrastructure,” Zelensky said. “Russia is preparing for Ukraine.  And here, in Ukraine, all attention should be focused on defense, on responding to terrorists on everything that Ukraine can do to get through the winter and improve our soldiers’ capabilities.”

There were no casualties or major damage from the attack on Kyiv.

A Ukrainian military spokesperson said Ukrainian troops had repelled 35 Russian assaults in and near Avdiivka, which has been under intense fire since mid-October.

The spokesperson told national television that 70 percent of air strikes in the east and south targeted Avdiivka.

--Ukrainian military intelligence said an explosion killed at least three Russian servicemen in the Russian-occupied southern town of Melitopol, which it described as an “act of revenge” by resistance groups.

--The New York Times reported that “little ground has changed hands in Ukraine this year despite intense fighting and substantial casualties on both sides, and Russia still retains control over one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory.”

Ukraine said Tuesday that Russian troops continued simultaneous attempts in several directions on the country’s east, now launching even more attack drones.

The head of Ukraine’s ground forces, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, said that Russia, despite high losses, has been attacking Ukrainian positions near Kupyansk.  “In addition, the enemy has increased the use of Kamikaze drones,” he said on Telegram.

“North and south of Bakhmut, Russian troops are trying to seize the initiative by conducting counterattacks.  However, our defenders break all the plans and attempts of invaders to seize our land,” Syrskyi added.

President Zelensky said on Tuesday he received military reports on an increasing number of attacks in the east, including in Avdiivka direction.

Zelensky, in his nightly address late Tuesday assured allies that his military was preparing to take the war into next year after a delegation pressed Kyiv’s case in Washington for continued support.

“It will not be easy, we are aware of this,” Zelensky said.  “But we are doing everything to ensure that Ukraine’s position remains solid.”

“We all hoped we would make more progress than we have,” said Yurk Sak, a former adviser to Ukraine’s defense ministry.  “By now we were hoping we would be in control of Tokmak,” a strategic town on the road to Melitopol, which still lies 20km south of the furthest Ukrainian advance.  Breaking Russia’s land bridge at Melitopol would require an advance another 70km southwest.

Moscow also retains a substantial advantage in personnel numbers and according to some Ukrainian estimates is still recruiting 20,000 a month for the frontline.  However, it is running a high level of casualties, likely to amount to several hundred a day, but this is just an estimate from experts.

--Wednesday, Russia conceded for the first time that some Ukrainian forces have crossed onto the River Dnipro’s eastern bank, but has said they face “Hell fire” and that the average life expectancy of a Ukrainian soldier there is around two days.

President Zelensky’s chief of staff said on Tuesday that Ukrainian forces had secured a foothold on the east bank of the Dnipro in southern Ukraine’s Kherson region, the first official acknowledgement of its kind.

Vladimir Saldo, the Russian-installed governor of the part of Kherson region which Moscow controls, acknowledged in a statement that Ukrainian forces had managed to cross the river which was seen by Russia as a difficult barrier for Kyiv’s soldiers to surmount.

But Saldo said: “The enemy is trapped (in the settlement of) Krynki and a fiery hell has been arranged for him: bombs, rockets, heavy flamethrower systems, artillery shells, and drones.”

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--NATO says it’s strengthening its members’ abilities to defend underwater infrastructure following a series of incidents that have damaged pipelines and communications cables, Defense One reported.

As much as 95 percent of the world’s data passes through underwater cables, with some of the oldest connecting the United States and Canada to their partners in Europe. Fishing vessels occasionally cut such cables, as occurred near Scotland in 2022.  [Think dragging their anchors through them.]

But some incidents are clearly intentional.  Such as in the Russian-built Nord Stream pipelines, three of the four lines damaged in September 2022.  Sweden later discovered that explosives were used, and then this weekend, the Washington Post reported that Ukraine was responsible.* 

“There are well-proven capabilities that are designed to attack that infrastructure,” Royal Navy Rear Adm. Tim Henry, deputy commander of the alliance’s Joint Force Command Norfolk.  “Some nations have the ability to interact [with that infrastructure] in very, very, very remote parts of the world,” Henry said.

*So speaking of the Washington Post exclusive: “A senior Ukrainian military officer with deep ties to the country’s intelligence services played a central role in the bombing of the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline last year, according to officials in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe, as well as other people knowledgeable about the details of the covert operation.

“The officer’s role provides the most direct evidence to date tying Ukraine’s military and security leadership to a controversial act of sabotage that has spawned multiple criminal investigations and that U.S. and Western officials have called a dangerous attack on Europe’s energy infrastructure.

“Roman Chervinsky, a decorated 48-year-old colonel who served in Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces, was the ‘coordinator’ of the Nord Stream operation, people familiar with his role said, managing logistics and support for a six-person team that rented a sailboat under false identities and used deep-sea diving equipment to place explosive charges on the gas pipelines.  On Sept. 26, 2022, three explosions caused massive leaks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, which run from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea. The attack left only one of the four gas links in the network intact as winter approached.

“Chervinsky did not act alone and he did not plan the operation, according to the people familiar with his role, which has not been previously reported. The officer took orders from more senior Ukrainian officials, who ultimately reported to Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s highest-ranking military officer, said people familiar with how the operation was carried out. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive details about the bombing, which has strained diplomatic relations with Ukraine and drawn objections from U.S. officials.

“Ukraine has launched many daring and secretive operations against Russian forces.  But the Nord Stream attack targeted civilian infrastructure built to provide energy to millions of people in Europe. While Gazprom, the Russian state-owned gas conglomerate, owns 51 percent of Nord Stream, Western energy companies, including from Germany, France and the Netherlands, are partners and invested billions in the project.”

Chervinsky, through his attorney, denied any role in the sabotage of the pipelines.  “He is currently being held in a Kyiv jail on charges that he abused his power stemming from a plot to lure a Russian pilot to defect to Ukraine in July 2022. Authorities allege that Chervinsky, who was arrested in April, acted without permission and that the operation gave away the coordinates of a Ukrainian airfield, prompting a Russian rocket attack that killed a soldier and injured 17 others.” [Shane Harris and Isabelle Khurshudyan / Washington Post]

--Editorial / Washington Post

“In a recent essay and interview with the Economist, Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhny, said aloud what is evident on the battlefield: Ukraine is at a stalemate with Russia and ‘there will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.’  The statement should trigger a renewed effort to kick-start Ukraine’s battle against Russia’s invasion, with help from the United States and European allies.

“The general’s analysis is sobering.  Ukraine and Russia, he said, have reached a ‘stupor,’ fighting in trenches as in World War I, neither able to gain on the other.  ‘The simple fact is that we see everything the enemy is doing and they see everything we are doing. In order for us to break this deadlock we need something new.’  He said Ukraine needs a technological leap, calling for new air power, electronic warfare and counter-battery capability, and mine-breaching technology.

“Adding to the gloom, a profile of President Volodymyr Zelensky in Time magazine reflected worry in Ukraine that the West is forsaking Kyiv before its forces can push back the Russian invasion.  ‘The scariest thing is that part of the world got used to the war in Ukraine,’ Mr. Zelensky said.  ‘Exhaustion with the war rolls along like a wave.  You see it in the United States, in Europe. And we see that as soon as they start to get a little tired, it becomes like a show to them: ‘I can’t watch this rerun for the 10th time.’’

“All is not lost militarily.  Ukraine has opened a corridor for shipping grain, pushing back Russian naval forces with missile and drone strikes. In ground combat, Ukrainian forces have exacted an enormous toll on Russian armor and personnel.  In battles for the town of Avdiivka last month, Russian casualties hit 900 on one day.

“Still, there is a sense the war has stalled.  ‘We need to pull ourselves together,’ Mr. Zelensky said Monday in a televised address.  He also told ‘Meet the Press,’ ‘Our military are coming up with different plans, with different operations in order to move forward faster and to strike Russian Federation unexpectedly.’

“The steady but deliberate pace of Western arms deliveries has frustrated Mr. Zelensky.  Ukraine rightly fears it has been given enough to survive but not enough to win, in part because of President Biden’s concerns about escalation with Russia. Congress can boost Ukrainian morale and military performance by passing a large economic and military aid package in the coming weeks, sufficient to avoid stop-start disruptions in the year ahead.  Despite the reluctance of some House Republicans, there remains a sizable majority in both chambers for such a package.

“The United States and its allies should also work to frustrate the Kremlin’s growing circumvention of the cap of $60 per barrel on Russian oil exports… But Russian oil companies and traders have built a shadow fleet of tankers to bypass the cap, and its biggest customers, China and India, don’t honor the cap, although they purchase Russian oil at a discount.  Overall, Russian oil revenue rose by more than a quarter in October compared with the same month last year. The revenue will help Russia support the war effort. The West should continue to press sanctions on those who facilitate the shadow fleet.

“Russian President Vladimir Putin is girding for a long war, and that is the real danger for Ukraine, dependent on outsiders for supplies and support.  The budget moving through Russia’s parliament this month envisions a 70 percent increase in defense spending next year, accounting for nearly one-third of all public expenditure and nearly 6 percent of gross domestic product.  Mr. Putin is clearly hoping to exhaust the West’s patience and Ukraine’s materiel and personnel reserves – perhaps also desiring to see former president Donald Trump elected and a weakening of U.S. willpower to keep supporting Ukraine.

“In the end, Ukraine may face the reality that it needs to negotiate with a Russian foe willing to endlessly sacrifice treasure and lives on the battlefield. That point has not been reached, but the West should give Ukraine the leverage to drive the best possible bargain if the time comes. And that leverage means preserving Ukraine’s chance to survive and grow as a thriving European democracy, not a vassal of the Kremlin.”

--According to Andrew Weiss of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who co-authored an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal this week, Western leaders must “abandon (their) magical thinking about Russia and to develop a credible, long-term strategy for supporting Ukraine and containing an emboldened, revisionist Russia.”

Weiss explained later on social media that the gist is: “All too often, policymakers have clung to the belief that ‘something’ – a Ukrainian breakthrough on the battlefield, a Russian financial meltdown, fractures within the Russian elite, etc. – will upend Putin’s strategic calculus about the war.  Unfortunately, that’s not going to happen,” he said.

Also, “In Putin’s ideal outcome, a newly elected (Donald) Trump will simply cut Ukraine loose or tell the Europeans this is ‘their problem.’”

Weiss advises leaders in the West “must level with their own publics about the long-term nature of dealing with an expansionist, dangerous Russia and the fact that the war’s end, whenever that happens, is unlikely to quell the confrontation between Russia and the rest of Europe.”

---

Wall Street and the Economy

This week it was all about the October inflation numbers and they complied in terms of the Bulls and the Federal Reserve. In fact, they were perfect, every major metric better than expected.

Consumer prices were unchanged in the month, up 0.2% ex-food and energy, and up 3.2% from a year ago, 4.0% on core, each of those a tick better than forecast, the critical 4.0% figure the best since May 2021.

Producer prices fell 0.5% in October, when a rise of 0.1% was expected, while the core came in unchanged vs. a projected rise of 0.3%.  From a year ago, headline was 1.3%, ex-food and energy 2.4%.

And retail sales for October also complied, down 0.1% after six months of increases, ex-autos up 0.1%.

Even October industrial production was what stock and bond bulls, and the Fed, wanted to see, down a worse than expected 0.6%.

One more, October housing starts were better than forecast, the best since July, but far from great.

The Fed last raised rates in July, and as recently as last week, Chair Jerome Powell said he would not hesitate to raise rates should it be needed.

But with the softening inflation numbers, traders bet that the Fed will start cutting rates by May, when about two FOMC meetings ago, Chair Jerome Powell said there was zero talk of rate cuts.

May could be in play, but ONLY if the economy was tanking royally, and no one wants that, least of all the White House.  And a reminder…4% on core CPI is not the Fed’s preferred 2%, far from it.

Meanwhile, businesses need fewer extra workers for holiday jobs this fall after fighting in recent years to find enough staff to stock shelves, fill boxes and deliver packages during the year-end rush.

That could be a sign of a weakening labor market, witness last week’s jobs report for October.

The number of seasonal positions publicly advertised this fall fell to the lowest level in a decade, according to outplacement-services firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The National Retail Federation estimates that between 345,000 to 445,000 seasonal workers will be hired this year, down as much as 40% from a recent high in 2021. 

Two factors are cited for the cautious holiday hiring.

First, many economists project that consumers will pull back on spending in the final months of the year after a summer splurge that propelled blockbuster economic growth (confirmed, in part, by the October retail sales figure).  As I noted last week, the NRF expects spending this holiday season to grow 3% to 4% (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31).  That would be down from a 5.4% increase in holiday sales last year and a 12.7% jump in 2021, according to the Commerce Department.

Second, retailers and logistics companies have caught up on pandemic staffing shortfalls and can meet additional demand by having current part-time employees work more hours.

On a different topic, late last Friday, Moody’s Investors Service changed its outlook on the U.S.’s credit rating to negative from stable, citing the federal deficit as a “key driver” behind the action.

Moody’s retained its top Aaa rating for U.S. credit, unlike the other major credit rating firms.  S&P downgraded U.S. credit to AA+ in 2011. Fitch followed suit this past August.

In its ratings action, Moody’s said: “The downside risks to the U.S.’s fiscal strength have increased and may no longer be fully offset by the sovereign’s unique credit strengths.”

“In the context of higher interest rates, without effective fiscal policy measures to reduce government spending or increase revenues, Moody’s expects that the U.S.’s fiscal deficits will remain very large, significantly weakening debt affordability.”

The agency added that politics was a concern, as well: “Continued political polarization within Congress raises the risk that successive governments will not be able to reach consensus on a fiscal plan to slow the decline in debt affordability.”

Despite the concerns, Moody’s held on to its top rating for U.S. debt: “The affirmation of the Aaa ratings reflects Moody’s view that, despite rising fiscal pressures and political risk, the U.S.’ formidable credit strengths continue to preserve the sovereign’s rating, in particular exceptional economic strength, high institutional and governance strength, and the unique and central roles of the U.S. dollar and Treasury bond market in the global financial system.”

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for fourth-quarter growth is at 2.0%.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 7.44% this week from a recent peak of 7.79%.  [It was 6.42% 12/29/22]

Gas prices at the pump continued to fall this week, $3.33 for regular, nationwide; a nice break for travelers over the holiday.

Europe and Asia

Lots of data from Eurostat this week.

The official October inflation figures came in for the eurozone, 2.9%, down from 4.3% in September and 11.5% a year earlier.  Ex-food and energy, however, the figure is still 5.0%, down from 5.5% in September.

Headline inflation….

Germany 3.0%, France 4.5%, Italy 1.8%, Spain 3.5%, Netherlands -1.0%, Ireland 3.6%.

We had a flash estimate for third quarter GDP in the EA20, down by 0.1% compared with the previous quarter.  GDP had grown by 0.2% in the euro area in Q2.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.1% in the eurozone.

GDP Q3 2023 over Q3 2022….

Germany -0.4%, France 0.7%, Italy 0.0%, Spain 1.8%, Netherlands -0.5%, Ireland -4.7%.

Lastly, industrial production in the euro area for September fell 1.1% over August.  Compared to a year ago, it declined 6.9%.

Britain: UK inflation fell to 4.6% in October, lower than expected, and down from 6.7% in September.  Good news.

Meanwhile, just an awful week for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who fired Home Secretary (interior minister) Suella Braverman after she defied his authority over the handling of a pro-Palestinian march and was accused of emboldening a far-right counter-protest which turned violent Saturday.

Sunak appointed James Cleverly to replace her, moving from the foreign office.  And in an unexpected move, former PM David Cameron was confirmed as the new foreign secretary.  Quite a Cabinet reshuffle. [Cameron was PM from 2010-2016, when he resigned his leadership.]

Sunak had appointed the “pugilistic” Braverman to his government to mollify the right fringe of his party when he became prime minister a year ago.  But her language became more strident and she was an increasing liability. 

Selecting Cameron, though, has met with criticism.  Not only did he have a questionable record in power, but Sunak picked an unelected candidate for a top job, which casts the Tories as a party running out of talent and ideas, ahead of next year’s election, which was already destined to go badly.

So then to make matters worse for Sunak, the UK Supreme Court unanimously agreed that his flagship asylum policy was unlawful.  The scheme to fly asylum seekers to Rwanda and ban them from returning to the UK was key to the PM’s pledge to stop people crossing the Channel in small boats.  A revised deal is being put together, the government negotiating a new treaty with Rwanda, whereby the Rwandan government will promise never to send a genuine refugee back to where they have fled from.  But no one believes it could work after the high court ruling.

Turning to Asia…China’s National Bureau of Statistics released key October data.

Industrial production rose 4.6% year-over-year, while retail sales were up 7.6% Y/Y, both better than expected and a good sign.

October fixed asset investment (big ticket stuff like railroads, highways and airports) was up only 2.9% year-to-date.

The October unemployment rate was 5%, unchanged over September.

Japan reported disappointing preliminary GDP figures for the third quarter, -2.1% annualized vs. 4.5% in Q2.  Q3 fell 0.5% vs. Q2.

September industrial production was down 4.4% year-over-year.

October exports rose 1.6% Y/Y, imports fell 12.5%.

Street Bytes

--Another big week for stocks, a third straight week of solid gains as talk of a soft-landing gained more adherents.  The Dow Jones rose 1.9% to 34947, the S&P 500 2.2%, and Nasdaq 2.4%.

We had a late-breaking story that ChatGPT-maker and OpenAI co-founder and CEO Sam Altman was pushed out after a review found he was “not consistently candid in his communications” with the board.

Microsoft is the largest investor in OpenAI and its shares fell right before the close. More next week, which will be highlighted by Nvidia’s earnings.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 5.41%  2-yr. 4.90%  10-yr. 4.44%  30-yr. 4.59%

Just another crazy week in the bond pits, as the yield on the 10-year fell to 4.41% on Tuesday after the CPI report, then back up to 4.54% on Wednesday, down to 4.39% Friday morning before finishing the week at 4.44%, down 18 basis points, and well off the 5.02% high set on Oct. 23.

Thanks to Europe’s improving inflation picture, Eurobonds rallied bigly as well, with the yield on Italy’s 10-year falling to 4.35% from the prior week’s 4.57%.  The UK’s 10-year finished today at 4.10%, down from 4.33%.

--Oil continued to flounder, this week in no small part due to U.S. crude stocks rising by far more than expected, according to the Energy Information Administration, while U.S. crude production was still holding at a record 13.2 million barrels per day that it hit in October.

“U.S. supply activity is headwind for the market, and U.S. is a problem for OPEC+,” said John Kilduff, one of the better-known energy analysts on the Street, adding that he doesn’t think Saudi Arabia can cut more output to boost prices.

West Texas Intermediate was down a fourth straight week to $75.78, though it hit $73 on Thursday.

--It was Big-Box retailer week and Walmart, the biggest, reported fiscal third-quarter profit of $453 million, $1.53 per share, hitting the average estimate on the Street.

Revenue of $160.8 billion, up 6.1%, topped Street forecasts of $159.49bn. Comparable-store sales were up 4.9% for the U.S. division (vs. 6.4% last quarter), with eCommerce rising 24% in the U.S.

Gross margin was up 32 basis points.

Walmart expects full-year earnings in the range of $6.40 to $6.48, with sales up 5% to 5.5%.  Analysts were at $6.50 on sales of $642.32bn.

Americans cut back on retail spending in October, as noted above, ending six straight months of gains.

Walmart’s bigger focus on groceries has provided a bulwark against the broad slowdown in discretionary spending with more than half of the company’s merchandise comprising of food, and other daily essentials.

Sales have been “somewhat uneven” over the past two months, executives noted on a post-earnings call, giving them pause on the state of the consumer.

Walmart’s CFO John David Rainey told reporters the company saw shoppers slow down purchases in the second-half of October, and then pick up spending in the early part of November, on items including apparel and home goods, that have been out of favor for most of the year.

October was historically warm, and November has been more normal, cold setting in, which has led to more purchases of winter garb.

But with the tepid guidance, WMT shares fell 6% Thursday following the earnings release.

--On Wednesday, Target forecast holiday-quarter profit largely above Wall Street expectations as it benefits from easing supply chain costs and its efforts to control inventory start to pay off, sending its shares soaring, up 17%, and finishing the week at $130, nonetheless down from a 52-week high of $181.

Target’s stock has lost a quarter of its value in a turbulent year marked by elevated inflation. Shoppers have squarely focused on food and essentials, while showing reluctance to spend on home goods, electronics, toys and apparel that are deemed less essential.

Target CEO Brian Cornell said on a post-earnings call that though shoppers are still spending, the company was not out of the woods as higher interest rates, the resumption of student loan repayments, increased credit card debt and reduced savings keep up the pressure.

Cornell said more consumers are delaying their spending until the last moment, for example, shoppers who previously bought sweatshirts or denim in August or September were waiting to buy them until the weather turns cold.

“This is a clear indication of the pressures they’re facing as they work to stretch their budgets until the next paycheck,” he said.

To adapt to this shifting behavior, Target said it would place a big focus on value, for example, offering over two-thirds of its holiday toy collection and holiday decorations priced below $25 and $20, respectively.

Target forecast adjusted earnings to land between $1.90 and $2.60 per share in the fourth quarter. The midpoint of that range topped analysts’ expectations of $2.22 per share.  It also expects holiday-quarter comparable sales to decline in the mid-single-digit percentage range, compared with expectations of a 4% drop.

Target said its forecast follows a third quarter in which gross margins improved to 27.4% from 24.7% a year earlier, due to fewer discounts, a 14% reduction in inventories and related costs, and lower freight, supply-chain and delivery expenses.

--Home Depot beat earnings expectations in the third quarter but flagged continued pressure on big-ticket items as sales fell 3%.

The home-improvement company narrowed full-year guidance, and all but confirmed its first annual sales drop since 2009.  But the stock climbed about 5% Tuesday on the news.

That’s partly because earnings of $3.81 a share beat estimates of $3.75. Revenue of $37.7 billion narrowly beat consensus of $37.6bn.

CEO Ted Decker said that while consumers were still committing to smaller projects, Home Depot continued to see pressure in certain big-ticket, discretionary categories. Same-store sales for big-ticket items fell 5.2% from a year ago.

Overall same-store sales in the U.S. for the quarter ended Oct. 29 declined 3.5%. That marks the fourth consecutive quarter of comp-store declines after some heady growth during the pandemic years.

The company narrowed its full-year guidance, saying it now expects sales and comparable sales to decline between 3% and 4% compared to its previous 2% to 5% range.

HD forecast earnings per share falling between 9% and 11%, from a previous range of 7% to 13%.

While it’s not a guidance hike, it does lower the worst-case scenario end of the range.  In the current climate, with investors nervous over the strength of consumer spending in the months ahead, that’s likely being seen as positive.

“This year reflects a period of moderation, however, we are confident in our ability to navigate through this unique environment,” Decker said on a call with analysts.

--Macy’s third-quarter sales declined with consumers cautious about spending, but sales and profit both topped Wall Street expectations, and the department store raised the top end of its full-year revenue and adjusted profit forecasts, so the shares surged 10% Thursday following the release.

Overall sales fell 7% to $4.86 billion, with sales at traditional stores and online sales both down 7%.  Still, this topped the Street’s $4.77 billion forecast.

Sales at stores open at least a year also dropped 7%.  Macy’s same-store sales declined 7.6%, while Bloomingdale’s comp sales fell 3.2%.

Macy’s, which also runs upscale Bloomingdale’s as well as Bluemercury beauty stores, earned $43 million, or 15 cents per share, in the quarter, vs. a year earlier, when the company earned $108 million, or 39 cents per share.

“We delivered better than expected top and bottom line third quarter results and are entering the holiday period in a healthy inventory position,” Chairman and CEO Jeff Gennette said in a statement.

The shares rose in part because Macy’s now foresees full-year revenue between $22.9 billion and $23.2 billion, slightly better than its prior outlook, but it expects adjusted earnings in a range of $2.88 to $3.13, vs. a previously predicted $2.70 to $3.20.

Here’s the thing, the earnings report was far from spectacular and the shares, even after rising to over $14 by Friday, were still well off their 52-week high of $25.

--Boeing and Emirates announced that the world’s largest 777 operator has placed an order for 90 777X airplanes, $52 billion. The new order which increases Emirates’ 777X family backlog to 205 planes, was announced during the Dubai Airshow.  In addition, Emirates updated its 787 Dreamliner order book to better align future capacity to demand. The airline is buying five more 787 jets – growing its 787 backlog to 35.

And Emirates’ “low-cost” sister airline, Flydubai, followed up with an $11 billion order of 30 Boeing 787-9 Dreamliners.

Boeing and Royal Jordanian also announced an order for four 787-9 Dreamliner jets, after reconfirming a previous order for two 787-9s, bringing its total backlog to six.

Meanwhile, Emirates ruled out an immediate deal to buy Airbus A350-1000 jets on Tuesday, blaming a dispute with engine maker Rolls-Royce over the durability of its engines, leaving the European planemaker without a major showcase order at the Dubai Airshow.

--Air fares are coming down, just in time for the holidays, with the average price for a domestic flight around Thanksgiving down about 9% from a year ago, while flights around Christmas were 18% cheaper, according to Hopper, a booking and price-tracking app.  Kayak, the travel search engine, looked at a wider range of dates around the holidays and found that domestic flight prices were down about 18% around Thanksgiving and 23% around Christmas.

--The Wall Street Journal’s annual ranking of the country’s busiest airports has Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport again sitting on top.

Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was second among the 20 busiest U.S. airports on this year’s list.  Los Angeles International Airport took third. 

Reliability, value, convenience, wait times on the tarmac, are just some of the factors taken into consideration.

The two worst in the large airport category are New York (JFK) and Newark.  And boy, Newark’s bottom ranking is well-deserved.

--TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2019

11/16…105 percent of 2019 levels
11/15…107
11/14…107
11/13…110
11/12…112
11/11…112
11/10…106
11/9…112

This Thanksgiving promises to be the busiest ever.

--Workers at Ford and Stellantis are on the verge of officially ratifying their contract agreements, joining General Motors, which ratified its record contract late Thursday.  The deals run through April 2028. 

UAW president Shawn Fain said in testimony before a congressional committee this week, that when it came to the contracts reverberating across the auto industry, forcing Toyota, Honda and Hyundai to announce significant wage increases at nonunion plants, “We call that the UAW bump, and that stands for ‘U Are Welcome.  And we’re very proud of that. And when these workers decide to organize and join the UAW, they’re going to realize the full benefit of union membership and get what they’re fully due.”

Fain said the UAW would seek to capitalize on its momentum by waging muscular organizing campaigns at nonunion plants. 

--Electric-vehicle startup Fisker delivered a disappointing third quarter, missing analysts’ expectations badly on revenue and losses and leading the stock to tumble further.  It didn’t help that Fisker’s chief accounting officer had left in late October, delaying Monday’s earnings release.

Fisker posted a net loss of $90.9 million for the third quarter, worse than expectations of a $69.2 million loss. Revenue for the period was $71.8 million, compared with consensus of $143.1 million.

The company revised its target for production to between 13,000 and 17,000 vehicles. Fisker had previously set a target of at least 20,000 vehicles by the end of the year.

--Nvidia shares have surged from $407.80 at the close 10/31, to a high of $497 this week before backing off a bit, its closely watched earnings coming out next Tuesday.

The company’s AI chips were already the hottest commodity in tech, and then this week they announced a new H200 Tensor Core GPU. The chip incorporates 141 gigabytes of memory and offers up to 60% to 90% performance improvements versus its current H100 model when used for inference, or generating answers from popular AI models.

The H200-powered systems will be available in the second quarter of 2024 from Nvidia’s hardware partners and major cloud service providers, including Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud and Microsoft’s Azure.

Nvidia’s GPUs have become well suited for the parallel computations needed to train AI models and serve customers. Its current high-end H100 became available in volume earlier this year and are priced at roughly $25,000 per GPU.  The product quickly became the technology industry’s most precious resource as rising excitement over generative artificial intelligence created product shortages.

AMD is also working on a rival chip, MI300, but it’s not known how it will stand up to the revised H200.

--Shares in Applied Materials fell sharply Friday, 5%, despite the company reporting better than expected fiscal fourth-quarter results.

According to multiple reports, AMAT is being investigated by the Department of Justice for sending semiconductor equipment to Chinese chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International, or SMIC, through South Korea without licenses, thus evading export restrictions.

AMAT had beaten the Street with adjusted earnings of $2.12, while sales came in at $6.72 billion, down on the quarter, but ahead of consensus.

--Cisco Systems shares fell 10% after the networking firm reported slightly better than expected results for its latest quarter, but the company’s outlook was well short of estimates.

“Cisco saw a slowdown of new product orders in the first quarter of fiscal 2024 and believes the primary reason is that customers are currently focused on installing and implementing products in their environments following exceptionally strong product delivery over the past three quarters,” the company said in announcing October quarter results.  “Cisco estimates there are one to two quarters of shipped product orders still waiting to be implemented by its customers.”

On a call with analysts, CEO Chuck Robbins said a previous bottleneck in components has shifted downstream to its customers. He said orders and backlog are now at roughly normal levels.

The disappointing guidance raises fresh questions about the health of IT spending in the final months of the year and into 2024.

For its fiscal first quarter ended Oct. 28, Cisco reported revenue of $14.7 billion, up 8% from the year-ago quarter, slightly above Wall Street’s consensus of $14.6 billion.

Adjusted profit was $1.11 a share, above the company’s guidance range of $1.02 to $1.04 a share, and ahead of the Street’s $1.03.

Product orders were down 20% in the quarter from a year earlier, including a 26% decline in enterprise orders and a 32% drop in service provider and cloud revenue.  Public sector orders were up 2%.

Orders were down 13% in Europe, the Middle East and Africa; 19% in the Americas; and 38% in Asia.

For the January quarter, Cisco is now projecting revenue of $12.6 billion to $12.8 billion.  The midpoint of that range implies a decline of 6.6% from a year ago, and it’s well short of the Wall Street consensus of $14.2 billion.

The company sees profit for the January quarter of 82 to 85 cents, adjusted, below analyst expectations of 99 cents.

For the July 2024 fiscal year, Cisco now sees revenue ranging from $53.8 billion to $55 billion, down from a previous forecast of $57 billion to $58 billion.  Adjusted profit for the 2024 year is now seen in a range of $3.87 to $3.93 a share, down from a previous projection of $4.01 to $4.08.

All in all, a really crappy report, I think you’d agree.

--China announced it had launched the world’s first next-generation internet service – more than 10 times faster than existing major routes – two years ahead of industry predictions.

The backbone network – so called because it forms a principal data route between cities – can transmit data at 1.2 terabits (1,200 gigabits) per second between Beijing in the north, central China’s Wuhan and Guangzhou in the southern province of Guangdong.

The line, which spans more than 3,000km (1,860 miles) of optical fiber cabling, was activated in July and officially launched on Monday, after performing reliably and passing all operational tests.

The achievement – a collaboration between Tsinghua University, China Mobile, Huawei Technologies, and Cernet Corporation – smashes expert forecasts that 1 terabit per second ultra-high-speed networks would not emerge until around 2025.  Even the United States only recently completed the transition to its fifth-generation Internet 2 at 400 gigabits per second.

Another way to think about it…the new Chinese network can send the equivalent of 150 films per second, or three times faster than in the U.S.  [South China Morning Post]

--Shares in Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba cratered following its cancellation of a plan to spin off its cloud computing unit, BABA citing uncertainties due to U.S. chip restrictions.  The shares dropped as much as 10% Thursday, and a bit further today.

--The obesity drug Wegovy can reduce the risk of severe heart problems by 20%, a pivotal study finds, paving the way for applications far beyond weight loss.

“It comes from a kind of therapy that reduces body weight to a therapy that reduces cardiovascular events,” said Dr. Michael Lincoff, the study’s lead author and a heart expert at the Cleveland Clinic.

The results of the large clinical trial were presented last Saturday at the American Heart Association conference in Philadelphia and published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

The research, paid for by Wegovy and Ozempic maker Novo Nordisk, enrolled over 17,600 people from 41 countries.

Patients were 45 years or older and had a preexisting cardiovascular disease and a body-mass index of 27 or greater – but no history of diabetes.

569, or 6.5% of those who received the drug experienced a heart attack or stroke or died from a heart-related cause, compared with 701, or 8%, of those who had the dummy shot.

Patients were tracked for more than three years on average.

Wegovy is a high-dose version of Ozempic, which has been shown to decrease the risk of serious heart issues in people with diabetes. This new study is groundbreaking for focusing on people without diabetes.

--IBM said Thursday it had immediately suspended all advertising on Elon Musk’s ‘X’ after a report found its ads were placed next to content promoting Adolf Hitler and the Nazi Party.

The report came a day after Musk endorsed an antisemitic post on X that falsely claimed members of the Jewish community were stoking hatred against white people.

Media watchdog Media Matters said it found that corporate advertisements by IBM, Apple, Oracle and Comcast’s Xfinity were being placed alongside antisemitic content.

“IBM has zero tolerance for hate speech and discrimination and we have immediately suspended all advertising on X while we investigate this entirely unacceptable situation,” IBM said in a statement.

Other corporations followed.

Elon Musk is one strange, albeit brilliant, man.

--Bonus season is looking grim for Wall Street bankers with no relief in store next year either, Johnson Associates predicts.  Merger advisers may see payouts slide as much as 25%, but those in equity underwriting and wealth management may see a modest bump.

--Meatpacker Tyson Foods on Monday forecast revenue for its next fiscal year below Wall Street estimates after fourth-quarter sales missed expectations due to falling chicken and pork prices and slowing demand for its beef.

With higher food prices and interest rates pressuring household budgets, some American consumers have been cutting back on meat purchases.

Prolonged headwinds, such as declining U.S. cattle herds due to a lingering drought, have further strained margins for food companies.

Tyson said sales volumes in its beef business, its largest unit, fell 6.7% in the quarter ended Sept. 30, while prices rose by 10.2%.  The company’s costs to buy cattle to process into beef increased by about $2.1 billion in fiscal year 2023 from the previous year.  Tyson, the biggest U.S. meat company by sales, said its beef unit will have an adjusted operating loss of between $400 million and breakeven due to tight U.S. cattle supplies in fiscal year 2024.

Chicken sales volumes rose 1.7% in the latest quarter as customers switched to cheaper alternatives from high-end proteins, though prices dropped 9.2%.

The company expects total sales to be flat in fiscal 2024 from the previous year’s $52.88 billion, with analysts expecting sales of $54.40bn.

Tyson’s fourth-quarter sales fell 2.8% to $13.35 billion, below consensus.  Adjusted profits were 37 cents per share with the Street at 29 cents.

Tyson has been cutting jobs and closing U.S. chicken processing plants to control costs, and reports back in August had it planning to sell its China poultry business.  But CFO John Tyson said in an interview Monday that it is “business as usual” in China.

Tyson employs about 114,000 workers in U.S. meat plants and other non-corporate sites like warehouses as of Sept. 30, down 3% from a year earlier, and 19,000 workers in other countries, up about 6%.

--Thanksgiving dinner cooked at home is going to be less costly than last year, thanks to a drop in the price of a turkey.

The cost of a traditional Thanksgiving feast for 10 people has dropped 4.5% from last year’s high to $61.17 this year, or $6.12 a person, the American Farm Bureau Federation said.

The price for a 16-pound frozen whole turkey is down 5.6% from last year to $27.35.

The Farm Bureau Federation has done the survey annually for 38 years, using volunteer shoppers in 50 states and Puerto Rico recording prices while visiting their local grocery stores.

--The number of New Yorkers who commute to the office is tied for the highest it’s been since March 2020.

The city’s office occupancy rate clocked in at 50.5% of prepandemic levels for the seven-day period ending Nov. 8, marking a 1.6% increase from the prior week.  It’s just the second time that the city has reached that level of in-person activity since offices first shuttered more than three and a half years ago, according to the latest data from real estate technology firm Kastle Systems, which tracks badge swipes at commercial office buildings in 10 major U.S. cities.

New York reached the same 50.5% peak the week of June 7, 2023, but had yet to return to that level of in-person occupancy until now.

Around the Labor Day weekend, New York had plunged to a 38.3% office occupancy rate.  Houston leads among other major U.S. regions at 61.4% of prepandemic levels, with Austin at 59.3%, Chicago 55% and Dallas 52.7%.

--The U.S. Postal Service on Tuesday reported a $6.5 billion net loss for the 12 months ending Sept. 30 and said it will not breakeven next year as first-class mail fell to the lowest volume since 1968.

The Postal Service said revenue fell 0.4% to $78.2 billion.

The agency has been aggressively hiking stamp prices and is in the midst of a 10-year restructuring plan announced in 2021 that aims to eliminate $160 billion in predicted losses over the next decade and had forecast 2023 as a breakeven year.

“Despite substantial planned reductions in our cost of operations and growth in our package revenues, we will not reach breakeven results in 2024,” said Postmaster General Louis DeJoy, noting USPS has reduced the $160 billion in losses projected in 2021 “to less than $60 billion.”

First-class mail volume fell 6.1% to 2023 to 46 million pieces and is down 53% since 2006, but revenue increased by $515 million because of higher stamp prices.

USPS, which has 640,000 employees, reported a 2.6% increase in employee compensation and benefits costs to $52.8 billion.  USPS plans to cut $1 billion in transportation costs next year.

--It appears the networks will reveal new episodes of scripted series sometime in February, CBS the first to lay out scheduling plans for mid-month since a tentative agreement was reached last week to end the longest labor crisis in Hollywood in decades.

The network will use its broadcast of the Super Bowl on Feb. 11 to launch its new lineup, with a new series, “Trackers,” immediately following the conclusion of the game’s trophy celebration.

--Disney’s Marvel Studios’ “The Marvels” had a poor opening last weekend, $47 million in North America, making it the weakest debut performance of any movie in the so-called Marvel Cinematic Universe.

The result appeared to illustrate a problem that Disney CEO Bob Iger identified during Disney’s earnings call last week, that being Disney is making too much content, on both the big and small screens, and not focusing enough on quality.

Marvel Studios has produced 33 films with interconnected and overlapping casts of characters, grossing nearly $30 billion over the past decade and a half, a hot streak unmatched in the history of Hollywood.

Before “The Marvels,” which received tepid, at best, reviews, the only movies in the franchise to open to less than $60 million domestically have been 2008’s “The Incredible Hulk” and 2015’s “Ant-man.”

--According to the latest Nielsen figures, Fox News won the cable news channel battle again with 2 million viewers on Monday, MSNBC second at 1.7 million. CNN lagged badly with an average of just 619,000 viewers.

CNN’s primetime viewership continues to be a weak spot with Anderson Cooper, Kaitlan Collins and Abby Phillip attracting an audience less than one-fourth the size of their counterparts on Fox – Jesse Waters, Sean Hannity and Greg Gutfeld.

Foreign Affairs, Part II

China: Editorial / Wall Street Journal…on the Xi-Biden talks….

“There are certainly good reasons for the two sides to meet to talk and better understand each other.  The U.S. wants to avoid a war with China that would be destructive for both countries and the world….

“The question is how much any of (the) verbal commitments will matter given the Chinese Communist Party’s ideology and ambitions.  Beijing has promised to round up the usual fentanyl-producing suspects before, with little to show for it. China’s pledge to reduce carbon emissions in the future are worthless given its plan to build 366 giga watts of new coal-fired power.  Mr. Xi must laugh privately at U.S. climate envoy John Kerry’s pleas that China act against its energy self-interest.  It won’t happen.

“The sign of a real thaw in relations would be if China eased up on its relentless military buildup and its military harassment of Taiwan and the Philippines.  The People’s Liberation Army has stepped up its almost daily incursions across the median line in the Taiwan Strait.  Some of the air and naval maneuvers are the sort that could presage an invasion or military blockade.

“Chinese Coast Guard and maritime military are also interfering with Manila’s attempts to resupply the Second Thomas Shoal.  This includes recent use of a water cannon to force a Philippine supply ship to alter course. The shoal is part of the Philippine holdings in the Spratly Islands, which China claims as its own, as it does pretty much the entire South China Sea.  If Mr. Xi really wants to play by global rules, he’d call off the war hawks.

“Mr. Xi also continues his diplomatic and economic help to Russia in Ukraine, and China is buying oil from Iran that helps Tehran finance jihadist militias targeting Israel and Americans.  This is the pattern that anyone who has attended a Chinese banquet knows: Chinese leaders smile and toast to their friendship between our two peoples, while they undermine U.S. interests wherever they can….

“Mr. Xi is no doubt sizing up Mr. Biden personally, contemplating how formidable the soon-to-be-81-year-old U.S. President will be as an adversary if relations again take a turn for the worse. The Chinese leader is set on retaking Taiwan on his watch, and Mr. Biden has shown little urgency in shoring up America’s military deterrent in the Asia-Pacific.

“The decline of American deterrence has let the world’s rogues think they can take advantage of weaker neighbors in Europe and the Middle East.  Let’s hope Mr. Biden sent a sterner message to Mr. Xi and backs it up soon with more hard power.”

Meanwhile, in Taiwan, the two main opposition parties have agreed to form a joint ticket in January’s critical presidential election.

The move comes as opinion polls suggest a joint opposition bid will offer the most likely chance to defeat the ruling, independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party. Vice President William Lai, the DPP candidate, has been front runner in the race since he was nominated in April.

The main opposition Kuomintang and smaller Taiwan People’s Party agreed to join forces in a meeting on Wednesday, with the aim of forming a coalition government next year.

They will announce the presidential candidate and their running mate on Saturday, ahead of registration which begins next week.

Iran/Syria: The U.S. carried out more airstrikes against targets in eastern Syria over the weekend.  Officials said the sites were linked to Iran and its proxies in the region, which the Pentagon blames for recent attacks on its troops in Iraq and Syria.  Warplanes hit a training facility and a safe house.  The strikes were the third of their kind since late October.

Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute said, “Initial assessments suggest 6+ fatalities.  At one site, secondary munition detonations lasted 1-2 hours,” he wrote on social media.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“You’d think the Biden Administration would have realized by now that enriching the Iranian regime is a dangerous mistake. You’d be wrong.  Relaxed U.S. enforcement of oil sanctions continued through October, refilling Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s coffers even after the Oct. 7 slaughter and the more than 40 attacks on U.S. troops by Iran’s proxies in the weeks since.

“Iran exported nearly 1.4 million barrels of oil per day in October, sustaining its average for 2023.  This is up 80% from the 775,000 barrels per day Iran averaged under the Trump Administration’s ‘maximum pressure’ strategy, according to United Against Nuclear Iran, the group of former U.S. Ambassador Mark Wallace and Sen. Joe Lieberman, whose Tanker Tracker generates the best public data we have.

“The Iranian surge in oil exports since President Biden took over has brought Iran an additional $32 billion to $35 billion, according to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. The calculations are tricky, but the cause of the Iranian windfall is clear: As part of Mr. Biden’s quiet diplomacy with Iran, the U.S. has curtailed sanctions enforcement.  Customers and middlemen have concluded the risk is low and the discount on Iran’s oil is too good to pass up.

“This transfer of funds to Iran is cumulatively more significant than the President’s recent $6 billion ransom payment in return for five hostages. And it keeps growing, even as the money fails to moderate Iranian behavior. Instead it finances Iran’s aggression abroad via proxies such as Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and the front groups in Iraq and Syria that shoot at American bases almost daily.

“In 2020 the State Department assessed that Iran sends $100 million a year to Palestinian terrorist groups, arming and training them to attack Israel and murder its civilians as Hamas did Oct. 7.  Last year Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh said that his group receives $70 million from Iran, plus long-range rockets.

“Citing an Israeli security source, Reuters reports that Iran’s funding for Hamas ballooned in the past year to $350 million.  Hamas’ new capabilities took Israel and the U.S. by surprise, but they didn’t come from nowhere.

“About 70% of Iran’s oil exports are to China, which helps explain the blossoming Russia-China-Iran axis challenging world order. Iran sends China cheap oil and Russia new military drones.  It may export missiles too, now that the Biden Administration allowed international missile sanctions to lapse.

“In return, Iran receives the money and diplomatic cover it needs to advance its war on the U.S. and Israel.  Russian military support in Syria shields Iranian arms transfers, and the potential for nuclear cooperation should keep Western policy makers up at night.

“If the Biden Administration wants to limit the flow of oil money to Tehran, it knows what to do: enforce the law and sanction the complicit banks, purchasers, tankers, ports and other players that facilitate the trade.  Does the President have the will to break from his strategy of appeasement?”

So then we have the International Atomic Energy Agency’s latest assessment of Iran’s nuclear program. Iran has enough uranium enriched to up to 60% purity, close to weapons-grade, for three atom bombs, the IAEA reporting Wednesday that Iran is still stonewalling the agency on key issues.

Iran’s steady progress in enriching to very high levels while failing to provide the IAEA with the cooperation it demands on a growing list of issues presents a challenge to both the agency and Western powers that have repeatedly called on Iran to reverse course.

Sudan: Fighters from a paramilitary force and their allied Arab militias rampaged through a town in Sudan’s war-ravaged region of Darfur, reportedly killing more than 800 people in a multi-day attack, doctors and the UN said.

The attack on Ardamata in West Darfur province earlier this month was the latest in a series of atrocities in Darfur that marked the months-long war between the Sudanese military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, RSF.

Sudan has been engulfed in chaos since mid-April, when simmering tensions between military chief General Abdel-Fattah Burhan and the commander of the RSF, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, exploded into open warfare.

The war came 18 months after both generals removed a transitional government in a military coup.

Random Musings

--Presidential approval ratings….

Gallup: 37% approve of President Biden’s job performance, 59% disapprove; 35% of independents approve (Oct. 2-23).

Rasmussen: 43% approve, 56% disapprove (Nov. 17).

--New Hampshire’s secretary of state on Wednesday scheduled the state’s presidential primaries for Jan. 23, 2024, extending its century-old streak of going first despite national Democrats’ efforts to overhaul the nominating calendar.

State law requires New Hampshire’s Republican and Democratic primaries to be held at least seven days before any similar contest and gives the secretary of state sole authority to set the date.

Republicans will kick off the nominating process with the Iowa caucus on Jan. 15, 2024. New Hampshire’s primary eight days later will be a crucial opportunity for GOP candidates to show they can remain competitive against Donald Trump.

Iowa’s Democrats also will caucus on Jan. 15, but not release the presidential results immediately to comply with new party rules sought by President Biden, who argued Black and other minority voters should play a larger, earlier role.  Iowa and New Hampshire are each more than 90% white.

Biden is not on the New Hampshire ballot, the first official Democratic primary being South Carolina.  And New Hampshire’s delegates will be invalid for the national convention, so says the DNC.  It’s going to be interesting.  Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips conceivably could win New Hampshire and garner a ton of publicity, or NH Dems could write in Biden.

--A CNN/University of New Hampshire poll of likely Republican primary voters in the state found Donald Trump at 42% vs. 39% in a September survey.  Nikki Haley had surged to 20% from 12%, and Chris Christie was at 14% vs. 11% in the last poll.

Ron DeSantis was at just 9%, and Vivek Ramaswamy 8% (down from 13%).

--A Marquette Law School Poll of 856 registered voters nationwide had Nikki Haley defeating  Joe Biden in a hypothetical matchup 55% to 45%.  Donald Trump leads Biden 52% to 48%, while Ron DeSantis holds a 51% to 49% advantage.  [Among ‘likely’ voters, Haley’s edge is 56-44.]

--Last Saturday, in a Veterans Day speech in Claremont, N.H., former President Trump chose to honor veterans by assailing what he portrayed as America’s greatest foe: the political left.

Using incendiary and dehumanizing language to refer to his opponents, Trump vowed to “root out” what he called “the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country.”

“The threat from outside forces is far less sinister, dangerous and grave than the threat from within,” Trump said.

He used similar phrases in a Truth Social post on Veterans Day as well.

--Gerard Baker / Wall Street Journal

“ ‘You’re just scum’ is probably as fitting an apothegm for our current state of political discourse as ‘It’s morning again in America’ was almost 40 years ago.

“Nikki Haley’s expression of exasperation with her sedulously repellant rival Vivek Ramaswamy at last week’s presidential debate captured well the low, dispiriting quality of post-Reagan American politics.

“Scum was her spontaneous description of Mr. Ramaswamy.  Others can probably think of appropriate but even ruder ones….

“The transformation of Mr. Ramaswamy from brilliant young outsider of principled views and fresh energy to a parody of the most cynical, self-promoting and calculating opportunist is thus complete; from George Bailey to Elmer Gantry in less than 12 months.

“But the real question is whether he has read the tenor of American politics better than others – or whether there is still hope.

“There remains a narrow path away from the national tragedy of a 2024 rematch between Donald Trump, Mr. Ramaswamy’s role model in nastiness, and Joe Biden, a palpably incapable incumbent staring into the abyss of senility.

“On the Republican side, while Mr. Trump retains a huge lead, the dreamers can still see a way he can be unseated. State polls in Iowa and New Hampshire give him a smaller advantage than national surveys. Somehow, if the remaining no-hopers would accede to the inevitable, maybe Ron DeSantis and Ms. Haley between them could deliver a double blow to the former president in the first two primary contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, and then one – presumably Ms. Haley, given that her home state of South Carolina is next – could emerge as the clear challenger to a front-runner who by that time will be appearing in more courtroom dramas than Perry Mason.

“It still sounds like a long shot. And on the Democratic side, similar dreams that Mr. Biden might step aside for a more plausible alternative also seem far-fetched – not least because of the absence of a plausible alternative.

“But the dream lives on – and moves on to Plan B: a third-party candidate who might save the nation.

“That a very large number of Americans are hungry for some alternative from the seemingly inevitable is not in dispute. It’s telling that somewhere between 10% and 20% of those polled say they will vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a famous name. But he’s peddling conspiracy theories and quackery, disqualifying him as a genuine alternative.

“So inevitably other names surface.  Last week Joe Manchin set the dovecotes fluttering with his announcement that he won’t run again for his West Virginia Senate seat.

“There’s much to like about Mr. Manchin. He seems to be the authentic Regular Joe, as distinct from the ersatz one who occupies the White House.  He has crossover appeal.  In 2018 he won re-election as a Democrat in a state Mr. Trump won twice by around 40 points – though it’s probably important to note (and germane to his decision to step down) that recent polls had Mr. Manchin losing re-election heavily.  For a Democrat he talks sense about American energy supply, economics, national security and political culture, though he went along with a deficit-exploding fiscal package that went by the Orwellian name of the Inflation Reduction Act….

“In 1992…we had two main party candidates [Ed. George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton] who essentially campaigned and governed from the center, almost bested by a third-part eccentric [Ed. Ross Perot, who captured 19% of the vote] focused on a single issue [deficit reduction].

“This time around we have two main party candidates who in their different ways are outside the historical mainstream, unorthodox and extreme, and a potential third-party candidate who embodies a craving for orthodoxy.  If the third party came as close as it did in 1992, could it get even closer in 2024?”

You know where I stand. If it’s Trump vs. Biden, I’m voting third party.

--South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott dropped out of the GOP race.  A good man.  We’ll hear from him again.

--New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy formally declared Wednesday she is running for the state’s U.S. Senate seat currently held by the recently indicted Robert Menendez, a fellow Democrat, saying in a video announcement that “we owe it to our kids to do better.”

The move, anticipated for weeks, sets up a closely watched and likely bruising Democratic primary next spring in which Murphy, the wife of Gov. Phil Murphy, will face U.S. Rep. Andy Kim for the party’s nod to take over the seat Menendez has held since 2006.  More candidates are likely to enter.  And as of now, Menendez is acting like he will seek reelection, but that could change.

--Republican Rep. George Santos leveraged “every aspect” of his successful 2022 House campaign for profit, according to a report from the House Ethics Committee released Thursday, after which Santos announced he will not seek reelection, writing on X, laughably, that “my family deserves better than to be under the gun from the press all the time.”

The committee emphatically declared that Santos “cannot be trusted” and his conduct “warrants public condemnation, is beneath the dignity of the office, and has brought severe discredit upon the House.”

Earlier this month, Santos survived an expulsion effort championed by six of his fellow House Republicans from New York.  Rep. Michael Guest (R-Miss.), who chairs the ethics committee, predicted the report could revive attempts to oust Santos before the end of his term.

In a lengthy response to the report, Santos raged that the Ethics committee “went to extraordinary lengths to smear myself and my legal team… It is a disgusting politicized smear that shows the depths of how low our federal government has sunk. Everyone who participated in this grave miscarriage of Justice should all be ashamed of themselves.”

Well, Friday, Rep. Guest introduced a resolution to expel Santos in a vote after Thanksgiving.

--New York City Mayor Eric Adams is enmeshed in a campaign-finance scandal, while at the same time Gotham’s migrant crisis is doing a number on the city’s budget, witness this week’s freeze on new NYPD recruits, one of many budget cuts expected.

Adams is expected to slash migrant spending by 20% and scale back Sanitation Department litter basket pickups.

The mayor had given all city departments until this month to slash an initial 5% from their budgets – and warned they should brace for an additional two rounds, totaling another 10%, in the near future in response to the ever-growing costs of the migrant disaster.

--The Supreme Court announced on Monday that it had issued an ethics code for the justices after a series of revelations about undisclosed property deals and gifts intensified pressure on the court to adopt one.

In a statement by the court, the justices said they had adopted the code of conduct “to set out succinctly and gather in one place the ethics rules and principles that guide the conduct of the members of the court.”

“For the most part these rules and principles are not new,” the court said, adding that “the absence of a code, however, has led in recent years to the misunderstanding that the injustices of this court, unlike all other jurists in this country, regard themselves as unrestricted by any ethics rules.”

How the code is to be enforced was left unsaid.  After all, there is no one higher than the Supreme Court!  But this has to help.

--The organizers of next year’s Olympic Games have called for vigilance after French security services said they had uncovered a disinformation campaign emanating from Azerbaijan that aimed to undermine the French capital’s capacity to hold the event.

The campaign, which included pictures and a video showing clashes between French police and protesters that were seen by millions of people, ran with the slogan #boycottparis2024 following riots in Paris at the end of June, according to VIGINUM, the watchdog that monitors foreign digital interference.

“Between now and the Games, Paris 2024 will continue to monitor, in conjunction with the relevant authorities, the veracity of information circulating about the event and its organization,” Paris 2024 said in a statement on Tuesday.

Ties between Paris and Baku have been strained in recent months and have worsened since Baku took control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

--A section of the critical 10 Freeway in downtown Los Angeles that was damaged by a massive fire over the weekend will not be demolished, officials said Tuesday, and repairs, originally estimated to take 3-5 weeks, could be completed next week.  The closure has complicated commutes through one of the country’s busiest freeway corridors.

Arson is the suspected cause, a large homeless community living under the freeway, with lots of wood pallets, hand sanitizer also acting as an accelerant.

--I’ve written of the godawful air pollution in New Delhi and it got even worse this week after Diwali celebrations saw many revelers using fireworks, despite a ban.  Monday, Delhi once again had the dirtiest air in the world.  The toxic levels are becoming a big political issue in the country.

--Hurricane Otis damaged or destroyed 80% of Acapulco’s hotels and experts believe it will take years to rebuild. 

--Brazil is suffering through an unprecedented heatwave, with Rio de Janeiro recording 42.5C on Sunday (108F) – a record for November – and high humidity on Tuesday that made it feel like, get this, 58.5C, or 137F!  [I got this from multiple reports. There are different temps elsewhere.]

More than a hundred million people have been affected by the heat, though it is cooling off considerably soon.  In the Amazon, rivers have dried up, meaning there is no delivery of fuel, food or filtered water to large swathes of the region…a little known crisis.

--Lastly, this coming Wednesday marks the 60th anniversary of the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, Nov. 22, 1963, the first news event I vividly remember, being five years old at the time.  Our family was driving to the Pittsburgh area and wondering why on the AM radio, as we searched for a station with a clear reception, serious voices were talking about Abraham Lincoln.

It was an event that changed television news forever, as NBC, CBS and ABC stayed on the air for four days to provide live, continuous coverage of a national crisis for the first time.

And forever after the video is played of CBS anchor Walter Cronkite attempting to hold his emotions in check as he read a wire service report and looked up at the clock in a New York studio, announcing that President Kennedy had “died at 1 p.m. Central Standard Time.”

---

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.  I say this every week for a good reason. 

Five American special operations soldiers were killed last Friday when their helicopter crashed into the Mediterranean Sea during a training exercise.  The soldiers were conducting a “routine air refueling mission” when their MH-60 Blackhawk “experienced an in-flight emergency, resulting in the crash,” defense officials said in a statement Monday.  The crash reportedly occurred near the coast of Cyprus.

All five were with the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment (Airborne)’s 1st Battalion, based out of Kentucky’s Fort Campbell.  They include:

Chief Warrant Officer 3 Stephen Dwyer, 39, of Clarksville, Tennessee; Chief Warrant Officer 2 Shane Barnes, 34, of Sacramento, California; Staff Sgt. Tanner Grone, 26, of Gorham, New Hampshire; Sgt. Andrew Southard, 27, of Apache Junction, Arizona; and Sgt. Cade Wolfe, 24, of Mankato, Minnesota.

The soldiers were part of special ops forces recently sent to the region to be in place if needed to help evacuate American citizens amid the Israel-Hamas war.

In a statement Sunday, President Biden said: “Our service members put their lives on the line for our country every day. They willingly take risks to keep the American people safe and secure. And their daily bravery and selflessness is an enduring testament to what is best in our nation…We pray for the families of all our fallen warriors today and every day.”

Pray for Ukraine, Israel and the innocents in Gaza.

God bless America.

---

Gold $1983
Oil $75.78

Regular Gas: $3.33; Diesel: $4.31 [$3.72 / $5.34 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 11/13-11/17

Dow Jones  +1.9%  [34947]
S&P 500  +2.2%  [4514]
S&P MidCap  +4.0%
Russell 2000  +5.4%
Nasdaq  +2.4%  [14125]

Returns for the period 1/1/23-11/17/23

Dow Jones  +5.4%
S&P 500  +17.6%
S&P MidCap  +4.4%
Russell 2000  +2.1%
Nasdaq  +35.0%

Bulls 49.3…new numbers N/A
Bears 23.9

Happy Thanksgiving!  Travel safe. 

Brian Trumbore

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