Week in Review

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Week in Review

03/09/2024

For the week 3/4-3/8

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,299

In her remarks suspending her presidential campaign on Wednesday morning, Nikki Haley said the following when it came to the current geopolitical situation:

“Our world is on fire because of America’s retreat. Standing by our allies in Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan is a moral imperative.  But it’s also more than that. If we retreat further, there will be more war, not less.

“As important, while we stand strong for the cause of freedom, we must bind together as Americans. We must turn away from the darkness of hatred and division.”

I have more on Haley below...but for now the comments were similar to President Joe Biden’s opening in his State of the Union Address Thursday evening.

“Not since President Lincoln and the Civil War have freedom and democracy been under assault here at home as they are today.

“What makes our moment rare is that freedom and democracy are under attack, both at home and overseas, at the very same time.

“Overseas, Putin of Russia is on the march, invading Ukraine and sowing chaos throughout Europe and beyond.  If anybody in this room thinks Putin will stop at Ukraine, I assure you, he will not.

“But Ukraine can stop Putin if we stand with Ukraine and provide the weapons it needs to defend itself. That is all Ukraine is asking. They are not asking for American soldiers.

“In fact, there are no American soldiers at war in Ukraine.  And I am determined to keep it that way.

“But now assistance for Ukraine is being blocked by those who want us to walk away from our leadership in the world.

“It wasn’t that long ago when a Republican President, Ronald Reagan, thundered, ‘Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall.’

“Now, my predecessor, a former Republican President, tells Putin, ‘Do whatever the hell you want.’....

“It’s outrageous.  It’s dangerous. It’s unacceptable....

“I say this to Congress: we must stand up to Putin.  Send me the Bipartisan National Security Bill.  History is watching.”

On the issue of January 6, 2021, Biden said, “The plots to steal the election posed the gravest threat to our democracy since the Civil War.”

“But they failed. America stood strong and democracy prevailed.

“But we must be honest the threat remains and democracy must be defended.

“My predecessor and some of you here seek to bury the truth of January 6th. I will not do that. This is a moment to speak the truth and bury the lies.

“And here’s the simplest truth.  You can’t love your country only when you win.”

The entire nation was watching to see if Joe Biden could stand on his feet and deliver prepared remarks for a lengthy period of time, and over 70 minutes he did, though he often slurred his words, got a name wrong, and shouted at us.

For his supporters, it was ‘mission accomplished.’   But the positive vibes won’t last for more than a few days.

What this week’s primary elections proved is that about 100 million Americans are wondering how the heck this nation came up with the two candidates we have.  Much will change between now and November...that much is very clear.  And it is not a certainty the same two are still standing come Election Day.

Some opinion....

Editorial / Washington Post

“(The) strongest part of the president’s speech was how he described his vision of American greatness, undergirded by the core values of ‘honesty, decency, dignity, equality’ – and the alternative, the ‘resentment, revenge and retribution’ that Mr. Trump hawks at every rally.  This contrast in worldviews is the most important difference between the two options Americans will likely have at the polls come November.  The usual jumble of legislative asks and executive actions interrupted this narrative.  Mr. Biden’s task forward is to keep telling that story.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“State of the Union speeches are eminently forgettable, but President Biden’s address on Thursday was memorable for all the wrong reasons.  His address was one long, divisive pep rally for Democrats, goading Republicans throughout the speech, and targeting multiple and various villains for partisan attacks. It really was extraordinary.

“Most such speeches make at least an attempt at reaching across the aisle, if only as a gesture. This one had none, not even on the issue of aid to Ukraine where he most needs Republican support.  He made a good if incomplete argument for supporting Ukraine, and we agree with its substance....

“Given the foreign threats to democracy, Mr. Biden could have made a bipartisan pitch to increase defense spending. Even Jimmy Carter made that pivot in the final year of his Presidency when the Soviets were on the march.  But Mr. Biden wants to spend and spend on everything else instead. This could turn out to be a historic miscalculation as the threats from Iran, Russia and China mount....

“He demeaned the Supreme Court on abortion, suggesting its decision overturning Roe v. Wade was partisan and political. The truth is that the Dobbs decision, as correct as it was under the Constitution, has been a political boon to Democrats. But he still trashed the Court, and the Justices in attendance a few rows in front of him had to sit stoically and take it....

“There is much in the speech to critique on policy, and to correct on the potted history of his Presidency, but policy wasn’t his point on Thursday. This was a campaign rally disguised as a State of the Union, as Democrats chanted ‘four more years.’

“No doubt it was an attempt to rally Democrats who fret that he’s been too passive, or to show voters who worry about his age that he can sound tough. Thus the near-shouting delivery. But we wonder how effective it will be as a campaign message.

“There was nothing here for Nikki Haley voters, or Republicans who don’t want a second Trump term and might consider voting for Mr. Biden.  In its divisiveness, it could have the effect of encouraging the No Labels movement to go ahead with a third-party candidacy.*  Every bit as much as Donald Trump, the Joe Biden in the well of the House on Thursday promised four more years of dispiriting rancor.”

*Indeed today, No Labels announced its 800 delegates from 50 states “voted near unanimously to continue our 2024 project and to move immediately to identify candidates to serve on the Unity presidential ticket,” National Convention Chair Mike Rawlings said in a statement.

Over the coming weeks, No Labels will be hunting for candidates, one Republican, one Democrat.  This won’t be easy...they have to have national name recognition to be even halfway viable.  Mark Cuban stands out...but he seems to be already gearing up for 2028, not today.

Alyssa Farah Griffin / CNN

“Joe Biden basically had to show up and not keel over on the dais tonight.  And he massively outperformed, just objectively.  There was some stumbling, there was some coughing, and he’s prone to some kinds of stutter. But he did show energy.  He showed the ability to get through a long speech.”

Brit Hume / Fox News

“There was plenty of stumbling and slurring of words and all the rest of it that we’ve come to associate with him.  I don’t think he got from under that at all.  I’m not sure if a person sitting at home tonight looking at the guy would think he was anything other than an angry old man.  I’m not sure it was the kind of energy the public would want to see at a time like this in this country.”

Actually, the more you think about it, as Brit Hume is alluding to, historians may end up calling Biden’s performance the “Get Off My Lawn!” speech.

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The Week in Ukraine....

--A Russian drone hit an apartment block in the southern Ukrainian port city of Odesa on Saturday, killing at least eight people, including a three-year-old and a woman together with her infant child, regional authorities said.

Ukraine’s State Emergencies Service posted photos including of a dead toddler being placed in a body bag by rescuers.  “This is impossible to forget! This is impossible to forgive,” it wrote.

[Russia has launched over 880 attack drones and over 170 missiles on the Black Sea port infrastructure in the Odesa region since last July, a Ukrainian navy commander said on Wednesday.]

--A drone crashed into a five-story residential building in St. Petersburg on Saturday and 100 people were evacuated with no casualties, officials there said.  There was damage visible on videos taken and Russian media outlets reported it was caused by a downed Ukrainian drone, which was heading towards a nearby fuel depot.

--Ukrainian special forces sank the Sergei Kotov, a Russian warship worth $65 million, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency. Seven people were killed and six more injured in the attack.  The ship was targeted near the Kerch Strait using domestically manufactured Magura V5 naval drones, which Ukraine used to sink the Caesar Kunikov, another Russian warship, in February.  Ukraine also claimed responsibility for striking an oil depot in a village in Russia’s Belgorod region.

A series of explosions rocked Crimea, after a reported Ukrainian drone attack on the peninsula.  Video posted online showed a blast allegedly near a fuel depot in the southeastern city of Feodosiya.

Russian officials said 38 drones had been shot down. The Kerch bridge which connects Crimea with Russia was temporarily closed.

--In its latest assessment, British military intelligence said February had been the deadliest for the Russians since the start of the full-scale invasion, with 983 killed and wounded per day.

“Today, Russia has highly likely lost over 355,000 personnel killed or wounded during the Ukraine war,” it said.  It is not clear how the figure was reached.

Russia has not provided a record of casualties, while President Zelensky said the other day the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed was 31,000, without giving a figure for the wounded.

--Ukrainian Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk said Ukraine had downed a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber on Saturday.  “The Eastern Air Command confirms the downing of a Su-34 fighter jet.  Unfortunately, only one,” Oleshchuk said in a post on his Telegram channel.

Ukraine claims to have shot down seven Su-34 fighter jets in about a 7 to 10-day period, after downing a critical A-50 long-range radar reconnaissance aircraft.  [The U.S. has expressed skepticism over some of the Ukrainian claims, though the loss of the A-50 was confirmed.]

--Russia said it had successfully attacked a hangar housing Ukrainian naval drones in a strike on the port of Odesa on Wednesday, the Russian Defense Ministry said.  “The goal has been achieved. The target has been hit,” the ministry said in a statement that could not be independently verified.

But a Ukrainian navy spokesperson told media that five people had been killed in an attack on Odesa the same day.  We then learned a missile struck close to President Zelensky and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis who were in Odesa.

“These people don’t care, they have either gone insane or they don’t control what their terroristic army is doing,” Zelensky said about the Russian military during a joint press conference with Mitsotakis.

The attack happened as the two leaders were touring the port and surveying the damage to its infrastructure, Mitsotakis said, speaking alongside Zelensky.  “And shortly after, as we were getting into our cars, we heard a big explosion.”

Thursday, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, said Moscow had not targeted the delegation, adding Russia would have hit its target if that had been its aim and that it was obvious “to everyone” that there had been no planned strike on the motorcade.

--A Russian missile attack on Ukraine’s northern city of Sumy killed two and injured 26 more on Thursday, the regional administration said, damaging a school and hospital, as well as the water utility.

--Russia has strengthened its military forces in the north and west of the country to counter what Moscow perceives as a build-up of NATO forces near Russia, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday.  In response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden joined NATO (Hungary signing off on Sweden Tuesday, officially).

NATO this week was conducting a military exercise called Nordic Response 2024 which it says will involve more than 20,000 soldiers in Norway, Finland and Sweden and will focus on collective defense.

“Against the background of a buildup of NATO’s military potential near the Russian borders, the expansion of the alliance through the accession of Finland and, in the future, Sweden, we have taken steps to strengthen the groupings of troops in the northwestern and western strategic directions,” Shoigu told top generals, without providing details.

--According to a recent poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, when it comes to support for Ukraine, “55% of Republicans say the U.S. is spending too much on Ukraine aid, compared to 59% in November,” while “About 4 in 10 Democrats says the U.S. is spending ‘too little’ on aid to Ukraine in the war against Russia, up from 17% in November.”

--A senior Russian military officer has warned that the conflict in Ukraine could escalate into a full-scale war in Europe and said the probability of Moscow’s forces becoming involved in a new conflict is increasing “significantly.”

Colonel-General Vladimir Zarudnitsky, head of the Russian army’s Military Academy of the General Staff, made the comments in an article for “Military Thought,” a defense ministry publication, the state RIA news agency reported on Thursday.

“The possibility of an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine – from the expansion of participants in ‘proxy forces’ used for military confrontation with Russia to a large-scale war in Europe – cannot be ruled out,” he said.

“The main source of military threats to our state is the anti-Russian policy of the United States and its allies, who are conducting a new type of hybrid warfare in order to weaken Russia in every possible way, limit its sovereignty and destroy its territorial integrity,” he said.

“The likelihood of our state being purposefully drawn into new military conflicts is significantly increasing.”

--The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S.-made chips and Chinese products are flowing to Russia through central Asia. The trade routes through Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan – two former Soviet republics – underscore the difficulty of throttling the foreign trade that powers Russia’s  war on Ukraine.

--Germany accused Russia on Monday of leaking an intercepted recording of German military discussions about how to support Ukraine against the Kremlin’s invasion into an attempt to divide Europe.

Russian media published an audio recording of a meeting of senior Germany military officials held by Webex discussing weapons for Ukraine and a potential strike by Kyiv on a bridge in Crimea.

Germany confirmed the authenticity of the 38-minute call, saying it is investigating what it called an apparent act of eavesdropping by Russia that was part of an “information war.”

Participants in the call discuss the possible delivery of Taurus cruise missiles to Kyiv, which Chancellor Olaf Scholz has publicly so far firmly rejected. They also discuss how France and Britain are delivering their own cruise missiles.

While there has been little public response so far from allies to the recording, analysts say it is likely to strain ties given it is another major security breach and reveals the extent of German reluctance to get too involved in the war.

The Kremlin said on Monday the recording showed Germany’s armed forces were discussing plans to launch strikes on Russian territory, and questioned whether Scholz was in control of the situation.

--Russians queued up on Saturday to place flowers on the grave of Alexei Navalny, a day after his funeral.  Navalny’s mother, Lyudmila, was among the mourners, visiting her son’s grave for the second day, accompanied by the mother of Alexei’s widow, Yulia.  Both women, dressed in black, stood quietly at the grave, before leaving.

By Saturday, following Friday’s funeral, flowers covered the grave.  Police looked on but did not interfere.  A rights group, OVD-Info, reported that 91 people had been detained on Friday in 12 towns and cities, including Moscow, but did not immediately report on any new detentions on Saturday.

Yulia Navalnaya, Alexei’s widow, asked Russians opposed to Putin to get in line at voting stations on March 17, the last and main day of voting in next week’s election.  While she acknowledged that he is likely to win a fifth term in office, Yulia posted in a video message on X that “Putin will imagine any result that he likes, even 80, even 180 percent.”

But the gathering “will help millions of people see like-minded people and realize that we are not alone, we are surrounded by people who are also against war, against corruption and against lawlessness,” she said.

“We need to use election day to show that we exist and there are many of us, we are actual, living, real people and we are against Putin. ...What to do next is up to you.  You can vote for any candidate except Putin.  You could ruin your ballot,” Navalnaya said.

Alexei Navalny had floated the noontime concept on Feb. 1, saying it was a “completely legal and safe” way to protest and that authorities would have no way of countering it.

*Yulia Navalnaya and Olena Zelenska, Ukraine’s first lady, both declined an invitation from the White House to attend Thursday’s State of the Union.  Navalnaya cited fatigue, after traveling all over following Alexei’s death.  Zelenska’s staff cited “schedule conflicts.”

But the truth is, while the plan to put Zelenska and Navalnaya on either side of Jill Biden would have presented an incredibly powerful image, two symbols of resistance to Vladimir Putin, Ukrainians have an issue with Alexei Navalny over his past statements that Crimea belonged to Russia.  His views evolved into support for Ukraine’s internationally recognized 1991 borders, but back in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, Navalny still held some nationalist views.

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Israel-Hamas....

--Ceasefire talks have been held in Cairo in an effort to reach agreement on a 40-day truce during which Israeli hostages would be freed and aid pumped into Gaza – ahead of Ramadan, which is due to begin at the start of next week.

The talks, though, were at an impasse.  Representatives of Hamas arrived on Sunday but when they refused to hand over a list of names of Israeli hostages still alive in Gaza, Israel’s team stayed away.

Hamas negotiators remained in Cairo for another day at the request of mediators, keeping ceasefire talks going after two days with no breakthrough, an official from the militant group said on Tuesday.

Benny Gantz, Netanyahu’s chief political rival but a member of the war cabinet, met with senior Biden administration officials and Vice President Kamala Harris, though Gantz did not have the approval of the prime minister for these meetings in Washington.

Vice President Harris called for a temporary cease-fire deal to allow for the release of several categories of hostages held by Hamas.

Speaking in Selma, Alabama, on Sunday, Harris called for an “immediate cease-fire for at least the next six weeks” in Gaza.

“Hamas claims it wants a cease-fire,” said Harris.  “Well, there is a deal on the table.  And as we have said, Hamas needs to agree to that deal.  Let’s get a cease-fire. Let’s reunite the hostages with their families, and let’s provide immediate relief to the people of Gaza.”

She also delivered one of the sharpest rebukes of Israel’s bombardment of Gaza of any top Biden administration official, describing the conditions as a “humanitarian catastrophe.”

“People in Gaza are starving,” she said.  “The conditions are inhumane and our common humanity compels us to act.”

She added, “The Israeli government must do more to significantly increase the flow of aid.  No excuses. They must open new border crossings. They must not impose any unnecessary restrictions on the delivery of aid.”

By week’s end, Hamas said its delegation had left Cairo on Thursday.  After four days of talks to secure a 40-day ceasefire ahead of the Muslim fasting month there has been no sign of progress on key sticking points, with both sides blaming the other. Egyptian security officials said talks would resume Sunday.

“Hamas’ delegation left Cairo this morning for consultation with the leadership of the movement, with negotiations and efforts continuing to stop the aggression, return the displaced and bring in relief aid to our people,” a Hamas statement said.  Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri said Israel had been “thwarting” efforts to conclude a ceasefire.

Israel has vowed to press on with its campaign, which is aimed at destroying Hamas and that any ceasefire would be temporary.  It has also pressed for a list of hostages held by militants in Gaza who are still alive.

“Needless to say, Israel will do whatever it takes to release our hostages.  We’ve made very, very clear and this has been reiterated by the U.S. that, unfortunately, it is Hamas who is the stumbling block right now by not telling us who is alive and who they have in their custody,” Israeli government spokesman David Mencer said on Thursday.

Hamas insists a ceasefire be in place before the hostages are freed, Israeli forces must leave Gaza and all Gazans must be able to return to homes they have fled.  Hamas has said it can’t provide a list of the hostages who are alive without a ceasefire as the hostages are scattered across the war zone.

--Israel continued its airstrikes in Rafah, with one on Saturday killing at least 11 Palestinians, as the IDF still talks of a full offensive into the city.

--The United States, in coordination with Jordan, made its first air drop of food on Saturday over the coast of southwestern Gaza. In a post on X, President Biden said: “The United States is committed to pulling out every stop to get more aid to those in Gaza who desperately need it.  We won’t stand by. We won’t let up.” 

A whopping 38,000 halal meals were in the containers, along with medicine, diapers and feminine hygiene products.

Tuesday, the U.S. and Jordan carried out a second air drop of aid, another 36,800 meals in north Gaza, which is beyond the reach of aid agencies or news cameras.  Gaza health authorities say 15 children have died of malnutrition or dehydration at one hospital alone.  Aid supplies to the rest of Gaza, already sharply curtailed since the start of the war, have dwindled to barely a trickle over the past month.  Whole swathes of the territory are completely cut off from food.

Israel continues to say it is willing to allow in more aid through the two checkpoints on Gaza’s southern edge that it has permitted to open and blames UN and other aid agencies for failing to distribute it more widely.  The aid agencies say this has become impossible with a breakdown of law and order, and that it is up to Israel, whose troops are in Gaza’s towns and patrol them, to provide access and security for food distribution.

The air drops are incredibly expensive and inefficient (5 to 6 Xs more expensive than by land), though we acknowledge Jordanian and U.S. troops for carrying them out in an active war zone.

President Biden then revealed in his State of the Union on Thursday that he is ordering the U.S. military to build a floating pier off Gaza that would allow hundreds of truckloads of additional aid to be delivered by sea to Gazans who are on the brink of starvation.  The project will take several weeks and involve hundreds or thousands of U.S. troops on ships just off shore.  It was unclear if Israel would join the effort.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said some aid from the new corridor from Cyprus could reach the besieged Palestinians as early as Saturday, but the logistics were not clear.  Cyprus is the closest EU member state to Gaza.

In his State of the Union, Biden, while reiterating his belief in Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas, condemned the humanitarian crisis.

“To Israel, I say this: humanitarian assistance cannot be a secondary consideration or a bargaining chip. Protecting and saving innocent lives has to be a priority,” Biden said.  “As we look to the future, the only real solution to the situation is a two-state solution over time.”

But to beat a dead horse, with the expansion of the Israeli settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, as I’ve said for ages, there is no way you can come up with a contiguous Palestinian state.  End of story.

--A team of United Nations experts tasked with gathering information on sexual violence linked to Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks on Israel found “reasonable grounds to believe” that some victims were sexually assaulted, including rape and gang rape, according to a UN report released Monday.

“In most of these incidents, victims first subjected to rape were then killed,” a press release announcing the report’s findings said.  “The mission team also found a pattern of victims, mostly women, found fully or partially naked, bound, and shot across multiple locations.”

The 23-page report said the team also found “clear and convincing information” that some of the women and children taken back to Gaza that day by Hamas as hostages were subjected to “rape and sexualized torture and sexualized cruel, inhumane and degrading treatment.” There were “reasonable grounds to believe,” it said, “that this violence may be ongoing.”

--Americans across the political spectrum have less favorable opinions of both Israel and the Palestinian Authority after the onset of the Israel-Hamas war, a Gallup survey found.

Overall, 58% of Americans have a positive view of Israel, down 10 percentage points snice last year, and the lowest favorable rating in more than two decades.  Views of the Palestinian Authority declined to 8 points to 18%, the lowest in nearly a decade.

Still, U.S. sympathies in the Middle East are largely unchanged, with Americans taking the side of Israel by a ratio of almost 2-to-1.

At least one demographic bucks the trend. For the first time, Americans under 35 were more likely to say they sympathized with Palestinian Arabs rather than Israelis.

--The UN says at least 413 Palestinians – members of armed groups, attackers and civilians – have been killed in conflict-related incidents in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, or in Israel since October.

Fifteen Israelis, including four security personnel, have also been killed.

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Wall Street and the Economy

In his semi-annual testimony to Congress, the House on Wednesday, Senate Thursday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that continued progress on inflation “is not assured,” though the central bank expects to reduce its benchmark interest rate later this year.

“If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year,” Powell said in his prepared remarks.

“But the economic outlook is uncertain, and the ongoing progress toward our 2% inflation objective is not assured,” he said, noting as he has of late both the risk of cutting rates too soon and allowing inflation to reaccelerate and the risk of keeping monetary policy too tight for too long and damaging an ongoing economic expansion that has sustained a below 4% unemployment rate for two years.

Powell noted that inflation has “eased substantially” since hitting 40-year highs in 2022, but the policymakers still needed “greater confidence” in its continued decline before cutting rates.

In his second day of testimony before the Senate banking committee, Powell said the Fed is “not far” from delivering the cuts to interest rates that Wall Street craves and the market hit more new highs in response.

During the House Financial Services Committee testimony, Chairman Patrick McHenry, a North Carolina Republican who is retiring, said, “We’re in a political year,” as he quizzed Powell on his rate cut plans, and Powell said rate cuts “really will depend on the path of the economy.  Our focus is on maximum employment and price stability, and the incoming data as they affect the outlook, and those are the things we’ll be looking at.”

The Fed “would like to see more data that confirm and make us more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down to 2%” before reducing the policy rate, he added.

The Fed’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) next meets on March 19-20.

Meanwhile, today’s jobs report for February was Fed friendly, 275,000 on nonfarm payrolls, higher than the consensus of 200,000, but January’s sky high 353,000 was revised down to 229,000.  The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.9% from 3.7%, and the all-important average hourly earnings figure came in at 4.3% year-over-year, down a tick from a revised 4.4%.  Bonds rallied further as the market has priced in a first Fed rate cut in June.

The February ISM service sector reading came in at 52.6 vs. 53.4 prior, 50 the dividing line between growth and contraction.  January factory orders were a worse-than-expected -3.6%.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for first-quarter growth is at 2.5%.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell a bit to 6.88% and is poised to fall further with the decline in bond yields.

Europe and Asia

The eurozone composite PMI for February, courtesy of S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank, came in at 49.2, an 8-month high.  The service sector PMI for the EA20 was 50.2, a 7-month high. [I posted manufacturing data last week.]

Service sector PMIs....

Germany 48.3
France 48.4 (up from January’s 45.4)
Italy 52.2
Spain 54.7
Ireland 54.4

UK 53.8

Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist HCB:

“The service sector may be off to a better start in 2024 than anticipated.  For the first time in seven months, the sector’s activity is expanding instead of shrinking.  While the growth rate is fractional, it is complemented by positive developments in other PMI sub-indicators.  Particularly encouraging is the uptick in new staff recruitment by service providers, surpassing the sluggish growth rates seen in recent months.  Moreover, the stability in incoming new business suggests a potential turning point in demand conditions.”

Dr. de la Rubia pointed to Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting and the spotlight on the timing of interest rate cuts.

The ECB then kept borrowing costs at record highs, as expected, and stressed that, while inflation was easing faster than it anticipated only a few months ago, it was still not ready to lower rates.

“We are making good progress towards our inflation target, and we are more confident as a result – but we are not sufficiently confident,” ECB President Christine Lagarde told a press conference.  “We will know a lot more in June,” she said.  [The ECB is waiting on key wage data in May but is clearly targeting its June policy meeting for its first cut.]

Separately, Eurostat reported that January producer prices in the eurozone fell 0.9% over December and were down 8.6% year-over-year.

A second estimate of GDP in the euro area for the fourth quarter showed it was unchanged vs. the third quarter, and up only 0.1% from a year ago.

January retail sales ticked up 0.1% compared with December, and were down 1.0% Y/Y.

Turning to Asia...Ahead of the National People’s Congress, China set a GDP target of “around 5 percent” this year, the same as last year’s target, with Premier Li Qiang saying China also hopes to create more than 12 million new urban jobs, while keeping the urban unemployment rate at 5.5 percent and inflation at 3 percent.

China’s economy expanded 5.2% in 2023, but it remains heavily reliant on credit-driven, state-led investment, raising concerns over whether it can sustain that pace in the longer-term.  Most outside experts, including the IMF and World Bank, see China expanding at about 4.5% this year.

A property crisis, deepening deflation, a stock market rout, and mounting local government debt woes are putting great pressure on China’s leaders to take momentous policy decisions that will put the economy on a solid footing for the long term.

Li said the government promises to create a stable, transparent and predictable policy environment for enterprises and put the focus on “communicating with the market.”  There were also pledges to defuse risk and offer more support for the housing market. And a pledge to issue ultra-long special treasury bonds, starting with a 1 trillion yuan ($139 billion) issue this year.

Meanwhile, with the date of the Lunar New Year changing every year, China combines data for January and February for more accurate year-over-year comparisons and Jan.-Feb. exports came in much stronger than expected, up 7.1% vs. consensus at 1.9%. 

Exports to the U.S. rose 5.0%, Canada (12.7%), Latin America (20.6%), India (12.8%) and Russia (12.5%), while declining to Japan (-9.7%), South Korea (-9.9%), Australia (-7.5%), and the EU (-1.3%), according to the General Administration of Customs.  In 2023, outbound shipments shrank by 4.6%.

The trade surplus reached a record $125 billion, while imports grew 3.5%.

The private Caixin service sector reading for February came in at 52.5.

Japan’s service sector PMI for February came in at 52.9.  January household spending was -2.1% from December, and down 6.3% year-over-year, both far worse than expected.

The big news concerns the Bank of Japan and the growing likelihood it will end its negative interest rate policy soon, possibly this month.  An end to such a policy would be a landmark decision by the BOJ that would roll back more than a decade of a radical monetary experiment that has aimed to put an end to prolonged deflation and economic stagnation.

Inflation has exceed the BOJ’s 2% target for well over a year and prospects are for sustained wage gains.  The next policy meeting is March 18-19, and if we don’t see the first rate hike since 2007 then, probably in April.

Economists project wage hikes of about 3.9% on average with the current wage talks, exceeding a 3.58% deal struck in 2023 that was the highest in three decades.

South Korea’s February manufacturing PMI was 50.7.

Street Bytes

--The major indices finished down on the week (though small and mid-cap stocks rose), as the Dow Jones lost 0.9% to 38722, while the S&P 500 declined 0.3% (though hit a new closing high of 5157 on Thursday), and Nasdaq fell 1.2%.

Shares in Nvidia today went on a gonzo rollercoaster, hitting a new high of $974 before finishing the day at $875.  Absolutely absurd.

The market is in a bit of a quandary. It needs growth in the economy to continue to power corporate profits, but not too hot an economy that reignites inflation and prevents the Fed from cutting rates.

Next week it’s about the consumer and producer price data for February, with zero market-moving earnings reports on tap.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 5.29%  2-yr. 4.48%  10-yr. 4.08%  30-yr. 4.26%

Treasuries extended their rally on optimism the Fed is preparing to cut, even if not until June.

Across the pond, Euro bonds also rallied, with the German 10-year at 2.26%, down from 2.41% a week prior, while Italy’s 10-year yield fell to 3.57% from 3.88%.

--Sunday, OPEC and its allies said they would extend voluntary production cuts through the end of June. The move will constrict global oil supplies as summer demand in Northern Hemisphere nations rises, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Saudi Arabia was joined by the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Oman and Algeria, in announcing they will extend their cuts, one million barrels a day in the Saudis case, which has been in place since July 2023.  The state-owned Saudi Press Agency said production would return gradually, subject to market conditions.

Russia said it would slash its crude output by 350,000 barrels a day in April, by 400,000 barrels a day in May, and by 471,000 barrels a day in June.  Of course, Russian exports remain under Western sanctions imposed after its Feb. 2022 invasion of Ukraine...largely ineffective sanctions, I hasten to add.

Oil has been rising since last fall, but crude prices remain well below 2023 highs despite fears about a spread of the Israel-Hamas conflict.  Rising output from the United States and other non-member producers and worries over demand as major economies grapple with higher interest rates, have impeded prices.

OPEC next meets April 3 on a ministerial basis, but the full OPEC alliance meets June 1 in Vienna.

--Apple was fined more than 1.8 billion euros ($1.95 billion) by the European Commission for allegedly abusing its dominant position in the distribution of music streaming apps to iPhone and iPad users on its App Store, the regulator said Monday.

The technology giant implemented “restrictions” on app developers that prevented them from informing iOS clients about cheaper music subscription alternatives available outside the application, the commission said.

“Apple’s anti-steering provisions amount to unfair trading conditions,” the commission said, and the company’s practices may have resulted in users paying a higher price for music streaming subscriptions.

As an aside, I was reading a piece on phone sales in Africa and some of the bestselling brands there are Tecno, Infinix and iTel.  I’ve never heard of them, but all three are manufactured by Transsion (sic), a Shenzhen-based company that made its fortune exclusively selling phones in Africa – before it expanded into other markets such as Latin America, India, Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia.

The sales strategy has been so successful, the Tecno brand sold more smartphones in the Middle East and Africa than Samsung or Apple.

The fine wasn’t Apple’s only problem early in the week. Tuesday, a report from market research firm Counterpoint revealed that iPhone sales in China dropped by 24% from a year ago in the first six weeks of 2024.  Apple is under pressure from Huawei, the Chinese giant which is now Apple’s main rival in the smartphone market on the mainland.  Huawei saw its sales rise by 64% in the same period.

Apple shares closed last week at $179.66, which was down from $192.50 at year end (and $190 Feb. 7).  The stock was then trading at $170 Tuesday morning and finished the week at $171.

--JetBlue and Spirit Airlines ended their proposed $3.8 billion combination after a court ruling blocked their merger.

JetBlue said Monday that even though both companies still believe in the benefits of a combination, they felt they were unlikely to meet the required closing conditions before the July 24 deadline and mutually agreed that terminating the deal was the best decision for both.

The Justice Department sued to block the merger last year, saying it would reduce competition and drive-up fares, especially for travelers who depend on low-fare Spirit.

JetBlue agreed to pay Spirit $69 million as part of its decision to end the deal.

Spirit said it was always prepared to continue as an independent airline, given the regulatory challenges the deal faced.

I argued that this deal was a good one, and that without it, Spirit goes under. I hope that’s not the case, but the shares closed today at $4.85, down from last Friday’s close of $6.46.

--American Airlines said Monday it is ordering 260 new narrow-body jets, including dozens of Boeing’s long-delayed 737 MAX 10.

The order includes 85 of Boeing’s MAX 10 planes and 85 of the Airbus A321neo, aircraft it says will help it expand both domestic and short-haul international routes.  AAL is also ordering 90 Embraer E175 planes.

American’s order is a vote of confidence for Boeing, which is struggling with a myriad of production and certification issues.  Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines, had said earlier this year that his airline was weighing alternatives because of delays in the MAX 10.

--Separately, shares of Spirit Aerosystems surged late last week on news that Boeing is in talks to buy the supplier it once owned.  A deal for Spirit would be a strategic pivot for Boeing and would highlight that spinning out company-owned supply businesses isn’t really a great idea.

Spirit makes fuselages for both Boeing and Airbus, including a large portion of the fuselage for the 737 MAX jet.  Some 60% of Spirit Aero’s sales come from Boeing. Airbus is responsible for about 20%.

Spirit Aero was once part of Boeing, and then became a publicly traded company in a November 2006 IPO of stock priced at $26.  Last Friday, March 1st, the shares were $28.30 before late word that day of the potential move by BA.  As in, sixteen years of going nowhere.  Sales, beholden largely to one customer, have risen since 2006 by about 5% a year.  Spirit shares did finish the week at $35.75.  [Al Root / Barron’s]

--TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2023

3/7...106 percent of 2023 levels
3/6...103
3/5...104
3/4...106
3/3...106
3/2...104
3/1...110
2/29...110

--OpenAI on Tuesday rejected Elon Musk’s claims that the startup had abandoned its original mission of developing artificial intelligence for the benefit of humanity and said the billionaire had demanded a merger between the ChatGPT-maker and Tesla.

OpenAI said in a blog post it intends to move to dismiss all of Musk’s claims. Musk filed a lawsuit against the startup he co-founded last week, alleging breach of contract, saying the Microsoft-backed firm is now focused on making money.

OpenAI said Musk wanted the company to merge with Tesla, and he forwarded an email that said the startup should “attach to Tesla as its cash cow.”

OpenAI said the suggestion came after Musk and the company decided the next step was to create a for-profit entity in 2017 to generate capital for building artificial general intelligence (AGI).

Musk then wanted majority equity, initial board control, and to be CEO of OpenAI, the company said.  But OpenAI and Musk could not agree to the terms on a for-profit because the startup felt it was against the mission for any individual to have absolute control over the firm.

In his lawsuit, Musk said OpenAI’s three founders originally agreed to work on AGI, a concept that machines could handle tasks like a human, but in a way that would “benefit humanity.”

“We’re said that it’s come to this with someone whom we’ve deeply admired – someone who inspired us to aim higher, then told us we would fail, started a competitor, and then sued us when we started making meaningful progress towards OpenAI’s mission without him,” OpenAI said.

--New York Community Bank has threatened for weeks to become a big issue for the Street, but its problems have been seen to be isolated.  So, Wednesday, as the shares were halted a number of times, the stock dropping 45%, the bank received a $1 billion infusion from investors that greatly increased NYCB’s odds of surviving, even if existing shareholders will see their investment diluted.

The equity injection came from the investment firm run by former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and other funds.

The bank is getting a new CEO: Joseph Otting, previously a comptroller of the currency and head of OneWest Bank.  The shares immediately doubled on the news.

NYCB was under pressure to boost reserves on its loans to rent-regulated apartments in New York City, and now will sell common and preferred stock, plus warrants, to the investment firms.  Mnuchin’s Liberty Strategic Capital will invest $450 million, with other banks and institutions contributing smaller amounts.

Last week, NYCB surprised markets by changing its CEO and saying it found “material weaknesses” in its loan-review process.

--Tesla shares fell more than 7% on Monday after its sales declined in February in China, where it faced rising competition and a slowdown during the Lunar New Year holidays.  The sales data dimmed the outlook for Tesla’s global deliveries, at a time when the top EV maker is battling a decline in demand and is weighed down by a lack of entry-level vehicles and the age of its product line-up.

Tesla sold 60,365 China-made vehicles in February, down 19% from a year earlier and the lowest since December 2022, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association.

Just a tidbit on lithium-ion batteries.  Chinese scientists have developed a new electrolyte that allows the batteries to charge and operate in temperatures as low as minus 80 degrees Celsius (minus 112 degrees Fahrenheit), as reported by the South China Morning Post.  Operating in extreme cold has always been a huge issue for electric vehicles, but such batteries could also include applications for aviation, marine electronics, railways, polar exploration and telecommunications, noted Fan Xiulin, a professor at Zhejiang University and one of the lead scientists behind the development.

Our late Dr. Bortrum, who was a pioneer in lithium-ion batteries, would have gotten a kick out of this development.  Back in the 1970s, Bortrum would come home from work, and I would ask at the dinner table, “So, Dad, did you get an extra minute out of it today?” 

--Ford Motor still reports monthly sales and in the U.S. logged nearly an 11% gain for February on an annual basis amid a surge in electric and hybrid vehicle sales.

The automaker said Monday it sold 174,192 vehicles last month, up from 157,606 a year earlier. EV sales jumped 81% to 6,368 units, while hybrid vehicle sales advanced 32% to 12,045.  Internal combustion vehicle sales increased 7.5% to 155,779.

SUV sales in February rose 24% year over year to 84,902 units, while sales of the F-150 Lightning electric pickups jumped 93% to 2,578, while overall F-Series sales fell 5.8% to 51,829, according to company data.

--Microsoft said on Friday that a Russian state-sponsored hacking group named Midnight Blizzard was trying to breach its systems again, by using information it stole from corporate emails in January.  The disclosure shows how persistent the hacking group linked to Russian intelligence is in penetrating Microsoft, which is a key provider of digital services and infrastructure to the U.S. government.

--Target shares surged 12% on Tuesday to a 12-month high as the company recorded a 58% jump in fiscal fourth-quarter earnings that topped market estimates, as the retailer benefited from lower markdowns and shrink costs.

The company’s adjusted earnings came in at $2.98 a share for the three-month period ended Feb. 3, up from $1.89 the year before, surpassing the Street’s estimate of $2.41.  Sales moved up to $31.47 billion from $30.98 billion, with total revenue rising 1.7% to $31.92 billion, the Street at $31.85bn.

Comp sales, however, fell 4.4%, as the number of transactions decreased by 1.7%, according to the retailer.  In the previous three-month period, same-store sales slipped 4.9% while traffic moved down 4.1%.

“Our team’s efforts changed the momentum of our business, further improving our sales and traffic trends in the fourth quarter while driving profitability well ahead of expectations,” CEO Brian Cornell said in a statement.

Gross margin increased to 25.6% from 22.72% in the prior-year quarter due to lower markdowns and other inventory-related costs, among other factors.  Expenses related to shrink, which refers to inventory lost due to theft or internal issues, declined on an annual basis.

For the current quarter, Target expects adjusted EPS to be in a range of $1.70 to $2.10, while the Street is looking for normalized EPS of $2.03.  Comp sales are set to decline by 3% to 5% versus analysts’ estimate for a 3.9% decrease.

Per-share adjusted earnings are pegged at $8.60 to $9.60 for the current fiscal year while same-store sales are seen at flat to up 2%. The market is at $9.20 and a sales gain of 1.1%.  In all of fiscal 2023, comp sales were down 3.7%, while adjusted EPS surged 50% to $8.94.

--Kroger shares surged 10% after the largest grocery operator in the U.S. posted better-than-expected profit in the fourth quarter, boosted by lower supply-chain costs.  The company earned $1.34 a share on an adjusted basis in the three months ended in January.  Sales were $37.1 billion, with consensus at $1.13 and revenue of $37 billion.

For the current fiscal year, KR sees adjusted profit per share of $4.30 to $4.50, while analysts had expected $4.30.

Kroger currently has more than 2,700 stores across the nation under a dozen banners like Ralphs and Food 4 Less.  But its merger with Albertsons, which would create a significantly larger company with nearly 5,000 stores and more than 700,000 workers, has been blocked by the Federal Trade Commission.

--Costco topped earnings expectations, but the stock fell 4% after a rare revenue miss.  The company’s fiscal second-quarter revenue of $58.4 billion missed analysts’ projections for $59.1bn.  Total company same-store sales rose 5.8% year-over-year, better than forecasts.   Earnings of $3.92 were higher than estimates for $3.63.

--Bitcoin soared to nearly 68,000 on Monday, just shy of its all-time high, and bitcoin exchange-traded funds have been helping feed into the frenzy. Since their Jan. 11 launch, total assets in the 10 U.S. spot bitcoin funds on the market have swelled to nearly $50 billion.  BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust eclipsed $10 billion in assets last Thursday, the fastest a new ETF has ever reached that milestone.  Fidelity’s fund, now with more than $6 billion in assets, is already the asset manager’s third-largest ETF and has accounted for the bulk of its net ETF inflows this year.

Bitcoin then rose to $69,209, a new high, breaking the record of $68,990 set in November of 2021, on Tuesday, and immediately fell below $64,000.  But on Friday it crossed $70,000 for the first time before finishing Friday, 4:00 PM ET, that is, at $69,200.

Bitcoin ended 2023 near $40,000 and was hovering around $23,000 a year ago.

Coincidentally, gold rose to a peak of $2,146 on Tuesday, surpassing the previous high set in early December, and finished the week at $2,184.

--Campbell Soup reported fiscal Q2 adjusted net earnings Wednesday of $0.80 per share, unchanged from a year earlier. Analysts were at $0.77.

Net sales for the quarter ended Jan. 28 were $2.46 billion, down from $2.49 billion a year earlier.  Consensus was at $2.44 billion.

The company said it continues to expect fiscal 2024 adjusted EPS of $3.09 to $3.15, with analysts expecting $3.06.

Campbell continues to see steady demand for branded, ready-to-eat meals and strength in its food service business.  Prices across Campbell’s products rose 1%, while overall volumes dipped 2% during the reported quarter, as holiday promotions encouraged shoppers to indulge in its Goldfish crackers and Pepperidge Farm cookies.  The pace of price increases has slowed from last year’s mid-double-digit rise, as most food companies try to limit pricing to cope with subdued demand.

Packaged foods peers Kraft Heinz, Mondelez, McCormick, Hershey and PepsiCo have all flagged softer volume growth in their latest quarterly results.

CPB shares were essentially unchanged on the report.

--Foot Locker shares plunged 30% on Wednesday after the company reported fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.38 per share, down from $0.97 a year earlier.

While above consensus of $0.32, the company said it expected fiscal 2024 adjusted earnings of $1.50 to $1.70, with analysts at $1.95.  Sales for the year are expected to range from a decline of 1% to a gain of 1%, with comp sales growing 1% to 3%.

The company said it views 2024 as a “cash rebuilding year” and that it is “not resuming a dividend at this time.”

The shares had run up substantially and the guidance was a killer.

--Warner Bros. Discovery’s “Dune: Part Two” blew past already-high expectations with domestic box office sales for its premiere weekend of $81.5 million, the biggest opening of 2024.

“Dune” also sold another $97 million internationally, for a total global weekend take of $178.5 million, according to Comscore.

Industry ticket sales are still down 13% from the same period last year, as studios continue to deal with the effects of last year’s strikes and the shift from theater attendance to streaming.

Two weeks ago I went to see “Bob Marley: One Love,” which has done OK at the box office.  I’d grade it an “Eh.”  [By the way, they smoke a lot of pot in Jamaica, if you didn’t know that.]

Foreign Affairs

China/Taiwan: As Chinese Premier Li Qiang delivered his maiden work report at the top legislature on Tuesday, he called on the National People’s Congress (NPC) deputies to “resolutely advance the country’s great cause of reunification and uphold the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation.”

To achieve this, Beijing should “resolutely oppose ‘Taiwan independence,’ separatism and external interference and promote cross-strait relations and peaceful development,” Li said.

Beijing continues to talk of reuniting the self-ruled island with the mainland by force if necessary.

Taiwanese Vice-President William Lai is to take office as president in May, Beijing having labeled Lai a “separatist” and had warned Taiwan’s voters against electing him.

But the mention of Taiwan by Premier Li was brief.

Aside from the government targeting GDP “around 5 percent” this year, the same as last year’s target, Premier Li said the People’s Liberation Army should “strengthen military training and preparedness across the board.”  It was previously announced that the country’s military budget will increase by 7.2 percent and be set at 1.66 trillion yuan ($231.4 billion).

Li also said the principle of “patriots administering Hong Kong” should be firmly enforced, while continuing to support the economic development of Hong Kong and Macau.

One thing that caught the foreign press by surprise was the elimination of the premier’s annual press conference, a tradition for decades at the conclusion of the NPC, which in this case, Li Qiang would have given.

The press conference was a rare platform for investors to learn more about the nation’s policy direction as President Xi Jinping consolidates control, and it comes as the Communist Party is facing growing scrutiny over restricting access to information.

Separately, China has accused the Philippine coast guard of “deliberately” ramming Chinese ships following a collision near a disputed reef in the South China Sea on Tuesday morning.

Manila blamed the incident near the Philippine-held Second Thomas Shoal on China’s “reckless and illegal” behavior but Gan Yu, a spokesman for the Chinese coast guard, said the Philippines had “violated its commitments and deliberately sent two coast guard ships and two supply ships” to the area.

Gan said the Philippine vessel “ignored China’s repeated warnings, violated the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea, and deliberately rammed into China’s coast guard vessel.”

“The Philippines is dishonest in its dialogue, deliberately stirs up trouble, maliciously incites and sensationalizes, and continues to undermine peace and stability in the South China Sea region,” Gan said.

Note to the second graders reading this out there...as you get older, there is one universal truth. Communists (such as China and Russia) are tremendous liars.

In a 90-minute press conference as part of the NPC, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi painted the U.S. as a paranoid superpower and criticized Europe’s policy toward Beijing as increasingly muddled, comments that laid bare how deep distrust persists between China and the West.

Wang also warned of the possible escalation in the war between Russia and Ukraine, celebrated the close ties between Beijing and Moscow, and echoed recent comments by Vladimir Putin about the risk of a protracted conflict.

After acknowledging “some progress” in improving U.S.-China ties since the November summit between President Biden and Xi Jinping, Wang said the U.S. was still failing to keep its promises.

“Where is the confidence of a great power if the U.S. grows anxious when it hears the word ‘China?’” he said.  “The challenge facing the U.S. lies within itself and not with China.  If you’re focused on suppressing China, you’ll inevitably hurt yourself.”

And on the issue of U.S. restrictions on high-tech exports to China, such as semiconductors for artificial intelligence:

“If the United States insists on monopolizing the high end of the value chain, and only allowing China to remain at the low end, then where is the fair competition?” Wang said.  [South China Morning Post]

Lastly, the Hong Kong government on Friday published its draft of a new national security law, a document being closely scrutinized by some foreign diplomats, lawyers, and businesses amid fears it could further dent freedoms in the financial hub.

The draft includes new laws encompassing treason, espionage, external interference, state secrets and sedition.  It includes sentences of up to life imprisonment for treason, 20 years for espionage and 10 years for offenses linked to state secrets and sedition.  Debate over the bill in the city’s Legislative Council will stretch over several weeks.

North Korea: Pyongyang called the ongoing South Korean-U.S. military drills a plot to invade the country, as it threatened Tuesday to take unspecified “responsible” military steps in response.

The North’s warning came a day after the South Korean and U.S. forces kicked off their annual computer-simulated command post training and a variety of field exercises for an 11-day run.  This year’s drills were to involve 48 field exercises, double the number conducted last year.

In a statement carried by state media, the North’s Defense Ministry said it “strongly denounces the reckless military drills of the U.S. and (South Korea) for getting more undisguised in their military threat to a sovereign state and attempt for invading it.”

An unidentified ministry spokesperson said North Korea’s military will “continue to watch the adventurist acts of the enemies and conduct responsible military activities to strongly control the unstable security environment on the Korean Peninsula.”

The spokesperson didn’t say what measures North Korea would take but most observers say it’s probably more missile tests.

Iran: The Houthis in Yemen sank their first commercial vessel in the Red Sea over the weekend.  The Belize-flagged, UK-owned bulk carrier Rubymar sank shortly after midnight Saturday morning, nearly two weeks after the Iran-backed terrorist group attacked the ship with ballistic missiles, creating an 18-mile oil slick in the narrow channel and gradually sinking 21,000 metric tons of ammonium phosphate sulfate fertilizer into the busy waterway.

Yemen’s internationally recognized government warned of an “environmental catastrophe” from the fertilizer, which presents a serious threat to marine life.  The overload of nutrients can stimulate excessive growth of algae, using up so much oxygen that regular marine life cannot survive, said Ali Al-Sawalmih, director of the Marine Science Station at the University of Jordan.  [Think the marine life/shellfish threatened by fertilizer runoff from the Mississippi into the Gulf of Mexico.]

The ecosystem of the southern Red Sea features pristine coral reefs, coastal mangroves and diverse marine life.

The Red Sea isn’t that deep, with a quarter of it less than 50 meters depth.  For this reason, “As the [Rubymar] sinks, it also presents a subsurface impact risk to other ships transiting the busy shipping lanes,” U.S. officials at Tampa-based CENTCOM cautioned Saturday.

And then on Wednesday, a suspected attack by the Houthis on a commercial ship in the Gulf of Aden caused “fatalities” and forced the crew to abandon the vessel on Wednesday, authorities said, the first fatal strike in a campaign of assaults by the group over Israel’s war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Three crewmembers were killed, two Filipino nationals and one Vietnamese, the owners and managers of the vessel said, while two other Filipinos were also severely injured. The Indian navy evacuated all 20 crew members from the stricken vessel on Thursday.

The attack on the Barbados-flagged bulk carrier True Confidence further escalates the conflict on a crucial maritime route linking Asia and the Middle East to Europe that has disrupted global shipping.

As to last Friday’s Iranian parliamentary election, turnout appears to have been just 41%, a record low, but actually not as low as feared.  Tehran’s middle class stayed away, fewer then 24% of the 8 million eligible to vote bothering to do so.

Overall, the turnout and result leaves conservatives firmly in charge and free to pursue their economic and foreign policies, with reformists largely purged.

There are divisions among the fundamentalist factions, with four different slates of candidates in this group, and some of those elected will not have received the 20% of votes required to avoid a second round of elections.

The elections covered both the 290 seats in a four-year term parliament and the eight-year terms for the 88-seat Assembly of Experts, the body that is likely to elect Iran’s supreme leader.

Key figures who challenged the political direction of the current leadership – not just reformists, but centrists such as the former president Hassan Rouhani – were blocked from standing without explanation.

Mohammad Khatami, Iran’s first reformist president, was among critics who did not vote on Friday.

Pakistan: Lawmakers in Pakistan’s National Assembly elected Sunday Shehbaz Sharif as the country’s new prime minister for the second time as allies of imprisoned former premier Imran Khan in parliament shouted in protest against his appointment, alleging rigging in last month’s election.

Sharif, in his acceptance speech, said: “We were subjected to political victimization in the past but never took any revenge.” Without naming Imran Khan, he said the previous ruler jailed many political rivals, including himself and his ally Asif Ali Zardari.

He also accused Khan’s supporters of attacking the military installations after his ouster in 2022, adding that now parliament and the courts will decide whether those involved in attacking the military installations deserved a pardon.

Sharif then addressed the opposition saying, “I am offering you reconciliation.  Let us sit together to work for the betterment of Pakistan.”  But he was greeted with more protests and shouts.

The premier talked of repairing relations with the United States, which were strained under Khan.

But the biggest challenge Sharif has is the economic situation in Pakistan and gaining foreign loans, including from the International Monetary Fund, to repair crumbling infrastructure, and resolve year-round power outages.

Random Musings

--Presidential approval ratings....

Gallup: 38% approve of President Biden’s job performance, 59% disapprove; 32% of independents approve (Feb. 1-20).

Rasmussen: 41% approve, 58% disapprove (Mar. 8).

A new Wall Street Journal poll puts Biden’s approval rating at 38%.

--Donald Trump swept three Republican nominating contests on Saturday, shutting out Nikki Haley.

Trump won all 39 delegates in the Republican Party nominating convention held in Michigan; won the Missouri caucuses, picking up another 51 delegates; and won nearly 85 percent of the vote in the Idaho caucuses, securing all 32 of the delegates from that contest.  Haley did not win a single delegate.

--Nikki Haley earned her first victory Sunday in the Republican primary in Washington, D.C.  She earned all 19 delegates, winning 63% of the vote to Trump’s 33%.

Then again, there are only 23,000 registered Republicans in the city.

--Trump then won the North Dakota Republican presidential caucuses on Monday, receiving all of the state’s 29 delegates.

--So on to Super Tuesday...and Haley lost 14 of the 15 primaries and caucuses, surprisingly prevailing in Vermont.  It was clear gaining about 40% in most of the primaries was needed by the Haley camp and she fell short, though at least in winning Vermont and the District of Columbia, she became the first female Republican candidate to win one.  But Haley won just 89 delegates in all.

Aside from Vermont, where she defeated Trump 50-46, Haley gained 42% in Utah, 37% in Massachusetts, 35% in Virginia and 33% in Colorado. Otherwise, it was a total wipeout.

Trump told supporters in Florida: “They call it Super Tuesday for a reason.  This is a big one.  The former president racked up a 70% margin in Alabama, 60% in Texas, and took 79% of the vote in California.

In North Carolina, 43% of Republican primary voters said immigration was the most important issue for them – a topic that has been at the top of Trump’s political agenda since he launched his first presidential bid in 2015.

On the Democratic side, President Biden swept all 15 states that held Democratic contests, as well as the Iowa caucuses. 

“Tonight’s results leave the American people with a clear choice: Are we going to keep moving forward or will we allow Donald Trump to drag us backwards into the chaos, division, and darkness that defined his term in office,” the president said in a statement.

After Biden’s State of the Union address, he is heading to battleground states Pennsylvania and Georgia to kick off the general election campaign in earnest.  Trump will be in Georgia as well on Saturday.

Wednesday, Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota ended his long-shot Democratic presidential bid after failing miserably time after time to gain any kind of traction.

--Nikki Haley then ended her presidential campaign on Wednesday morning, pointedly declining to endorse her rival.  Instead, she told supporters in Charleston, S.C., that the effective Republican nominee must earn the backing of her voters.

“It is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party who did not support him, and I hope he does,” she said in brief remarks to her campaign staff and core backers.  “This is now his time for choosing.”

Joe Biden responded to Haley’s decision before Trump did, saying, “Donald Trump made it clear he doesn’t want Nikki Haley’s supporters.  I want to be clear: There is a place for them in my campaign.”

He added: “On the fundamental issues of preserving American democracy, on standing up for the rule of law, on treating each other with decency and dignity and respect, on preserving NATO and standing up to America’s adversaries, I hope and believe we can find common ground.”

Trump responded on Truth Social some 45 minutes later and did not embrace Haley’s call to take down the temperature.

“Nikki Haley got TROUNCED last night, in record setting fashion, despite the fact that Democrats, for reasons unknown, are allowed to vote in Vermont, and various other Republican Primaries,” Trump said, referring to her only victory.

Trump then accused Haley of raising most of her money from Democrats and urged her supporters to get behind his presidential bid.

“At this point, I hope she stays in the ‘race’ and fights it out until the end!” he said.  “I’d like to thank my family, friends, and the Great Republican Party for helping me to produce, by far, the most successful Super Tuesday in HISTORY, and would further like to invite all of the Haley supporters to join the greatest movement in the history of our Nation.”

Outgoing Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell endorsed Trump, the latest chapter in their tumultuous relationship, the two not having spoken in three years.

“It is abundantly clear that former President Trump has earned the requisite support of Republican voters to be our nominee for President of the United States. It should come as no surprise that as nominee, he will have my support,” McConnell said.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Donald Trump’s dominance of the primaries on Super Tuesday means the die is cast for a rerun of his 2020 match with President Biden.  Hard to believe: The two major parties are marching to nominate perhaps the only candidates who could lose to the other.  It’s America’s great presidential unpopularity contest....

“The public mood is set up for what should be a GOP triumph in November.  Mr. Biden’s approval ratings are in Jimmy Carter territory, and three quarters of the country thinks he is too old to run for a second term.  Most voters don’t like the results of his policies on the economy, foreign policy, immigration, and nearly everything else.

“Mr. Biden’s electoral bargain in 2020 with Bernie Sanders hasn’t paid off as his leftward policy lurch has produced a popular backlash.  The 2020 coalition that elected him is fraying, as Hispanics, black men, young voters and independents turn away.  Yet the polls show Mr. Biden is only down from two to five points in head-to-head polling despite all of his political infirmities.

“And that’s the gamble the GOP is taking by elevating Mr. Trump one more time. Republicans are nominating a candidate the public knows well – and who most Americans say they don’t like.  Mr. Trump never reached 50% approval in the Gallup survey across his Presidency.  His unfavorable ratings today are exceeded only by Mr. Biden’s – 57% to 59% in the recent Fox News survey.

“The reason is that Mr. Trump brings his own negative baggage that Democrats will reprise over the next eight months.  Mr. Trump has benefited from being less in the news than Mr. Biden, but the Republican will be front-and-center every day as the campaign fires up.

“Mr. Biden will poke him like a dancing bear, hoping he’ll act up and remind voters why they ousted him four years ago.  His Covid and other first-term outbursts will return in TV ads, as will his disgraceful post-election behavior leading to and including Jan. 6.  GOP voters may have come to discount the events of that day, but we’ll find out if that’s true about swing voters in the swing states that have turned against the GOP in the Trump era.

“Mr. Trump has been the greatest Democratic turnout machine since FDR, and that includes Barack Obama.  Every time voters have gone to the polls since Mr. Trump’s first victory in 2016, Republicans have lost or underperformed: 2018, 2020, 2021 in Georgia Senate races, 2022, and 2023 in special elections.

“Then there are the court cases.  The Bragg indictment goes to trial this month, and a conviction in New York is possible. The other three criminal trials may be pushed beyond Election Day, though it’s not impossible that either the documents case or the Jan. 6 conspiracy case could go to trial in the late summer or fall.  A third or so of GOP voters in Super Tuesday exit polls said they’d find a conviction disqualifying.

“We think the Democratic alarms about a Trump coup against democracy are overwrought. There’s no doubt the Trump Presidency was a stress test for U.S. institutions, but the checks and balances held.  It’s more likely that Republicans who think a Trump restoration will usher in some new political realignment will be disappointed. A second Trump term would check the left, for a time, but it would also likely be four long years of political trench warfare.”

--In California, voters picked two top finishers to face off in November, regardless of party, the race for Dianne Feinstein’s Senate seat, and its going to be between Rep. Adam Schiff, a Democrat, and the former Los Angeles Dodgers great Steve Garvey, a Republican.

A recent UC Berkeley / Los Angeles Times poll has Schiff defeating Garvey 53% to 38%, with 9% undecided.

--According to a New York Times/Siena College poll of registered voters across the country, widespread concerns about President Biden’s age pose a deepening threat to his re-election bid, with 73% saying he is too old to lead the country effectively.  When it comes to Trump, 42% say he is too old.

The same poll has Trump leading Biden 48% to 43% in a head-to-head.

Ominously for Biden, 23% are enthusiastic about Biden being the Democratic nominee, while 48% are enthusiastic about Trump being the Republican nominee.  If you add the option, “Satisfied, but not enthusiastic,” Biden is at 66%, Trump 80%.

--According to the aforementioned Wall Street Journal poll, voters are a bit more upbeat on the economy, with some 31% in the survey of registered voters saying the economy had gotten better over the past two years, during the majority of Biden’s tenure, a rise of 10 percentage points from a Journal poll in December.  And 43% said their personal finances are headed in the right direction, a 9-point increase from the prior survey.

But 2/3s still say inflation is headed in the wrong direction, despite ample data showing it has moderated.  Nearly three-quarters say price increases are outstripping gains in household income.  Well, this is true, if you look at a single item, auto insurance, up 17% in a year.

In a head-to-head in this poll, 47% back Trump, 45% pick Biden.  In December, Trump led by four points.

Trump’s lead over Biden grows from 2 points to 5 points, 40% to 35%, with independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. taking 9%.  But Kennedy supporters favor Trump, 47% to 30%, on the ballot that includes only the two major-party candidates.

Some 73% say Biden is too old to stand for re-election (same as the Times/Siena survey), the same share as in an August Journal poll.  By comparison, 52% see Trump, age 77, as too old to run for the White House, up 5 points from August.

When it comes to border security, 65% disapprove of Biden’s handling of it, a high mark in Journal polls over the past two years, and 71% say developments in immigration and border security are headed in the wrong direction.

Views of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war have also turned more negative, with 60% disapproving, up 8 points from December.

--The U.S. Supreme Court handed Donald Trump a major victory on Monday, overturning by a 9-0 unanimous decision a judicial decision that had excluded him from Colorado’s ballot under a constitutional provision involving insurrection for inciting and supporting the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack.

The justices reversed a Dec. 19 decision by Colorado’s top court to kick Trump off the state’s Republican primary ballot on Tuesday after finding that the U.S. Constitution’s 14th Amendment disqualified him from again holding public office.

Trump was also barred from the ballot in Maine and Illinois based on the 14th Amendment, but those decisions were put on hold pending the Supreme Court’s ruling in the Colorado case.

This decision is as it should have been, and it was handled by the Supremes speedily, compared to its slower handling of Trump’s bid for immunity from criminal prosecution in a federal case in which he faces charges for trying to overturn the 2020 election.

The trial, Special Counsel Jack Smith’s case, now awaits the Supreme Court’s decision, oral arguments late April, a ruling late June, it would seem.

--Allen Weisselberg, the former chief financial officer of Donald Trump’s company, pleaded guilty Monday in New York to perjury in connection with testimony he gave in the ex-president’s civil fraud case.

Weisselberg, 76, pleaded guilty to two counts of perjury and will be sentenced to five months in jail – which would be his second stint behind bars after 100 days last year in an unrelated tax fraud case.

The pleas related to testimony he gave at a July 2020 deposition in New York Attorney General Letitia James’ case against Trump, but in court Monday he also admitted, without pleading guilty, to lying on the witness stand at the former president’s civil fraud trial last fall.

Prosecutors accused Weisselberg of lying under oath in the case about allegations that Trump lied about his wealth on financial statements given to banks and insurance companies.

Weisselberg’s new criminal case comes just weeks before Trump is scheduled to stand trial in separate allegations that he falsified business records, the Stormy Daniels / hush money case, where Trump is alleged to have falsified company records to cover up payments made during the 2016 campaign to bury allegations that he had extramarital sexual encounters.  Trump has pleaded not guilty and denies wrongdoing.

This trial is slated to begin March 25.

--Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“House Republicans have released transcripts of their depositions with Hunter and James Biden, and we’ve read them so you don’t have to trust what other papers don’t want to report.  Far from Democratic claims that they show nothing wrong, the testimony confirms the story of political influence peddling and family profiteering.  Even if he didn’t get a dime himself, Joe Biden willingly assisted his son Hunter and brother James in schemes to cash in on the Biden family name.

“Under hours of questioning, Hunter and James acknowledged unsavory facts revealed by prior witnesses.  Hunter finally admitted that former partner James Gilliar was indeed referring to Joe when he envisioned an equity partnership that included ‘10 held by H for the big guy’ as part of a 2017 deal with Chinese energy company CEFC. This is notable after years of Democratic claims that the laptop on which this email was found was ‘Russian disinformation.’

“Hunter also confirmed former business partner Tony Bobulinski’s testimony of a meeting that same year in Los Angeles with Hunter, James, Tony and Joe – in the midst of the CEFC deal-making talks.  He didn’t ‘contest’ former partner Rob Walker’s testimony that Hunter introduced Joe to the CEFC chairman at the Four Seasons hotel in New York.

“He conceded former partner Devon Archer’s testimony that Joe showed up at business dinners that Hunter hosted in Washington’s Café Milano with Kazakhstan and Russian oligarchs, and that he put his father on speakerphone during other meetings....

“Yet even as the duo confirmed all this, they want the public to believe that testimony by the same witnesses about influence peddling is dishonest.  Hunter said his father’s calls were merely coincidental bonding moments – doesn’t everyone put dad on speakerphone during business meetings?  He said the ‘big guy’ email was Mr. Gilliar engaging in ‘pie in the sky’ dreams of working with a ‘former Vice President,’ and that Hunter ‘shut it down.’  He explained that Joe sojourning to Café Milano to say hi and order spaghetti was different than Joe coming ‘for’ dinner....

“Joe’s involvement with CEFC and the ‘big guy’ email occurred shortly after he left the Vice Presidency. This suggests Joe thought his political career might be over and was out to make money in the Beltway habit.  That was his right, but then why didn’t he say that in 2020?  The facts from the House investigation show he lied to the public about the extent of his knowledge and involvement with the Hunter-James businesses....

“Republicans plan to invite Hunter for a public hearing, and they may move to impeach President Biden. The latter won’t go anywhere in the Senate, and it could backfire politically by mobilizing Democrats in the President’s defense.  They’d accomplish more by educating the public about the Biden family’s influence peddling, and letting voters decide if they want to reward it with a second term.”

--Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona announced on Tuesday that she won’t run for a second term after her estrangement from the Democratic Party left her politically homeless and without a clear path to reelection.

Sinema’s announcement came after Senate Republicans blocked a bipartisan bill to help secure the U.S.-Mexico border and deliver military aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan – a deal that Sinema spent months negotiating.  She had hoped it would be a signature achievement and a powerful endorsement for her.

But in the end, her ambitions were swallowed up by the partisanship that has paralyzed Congress.

“Because I choose civility, understanding, listening, working together to get stuff done, I will leave the Senate at the end of this year.”

The race is now between Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake.

--New Jersey Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez, already fighting a September indictment for allegedly accepting bribes – including cash, gold, and a Mercedes Benz convertible – will now face additional charges, according to an indictment unsealed on Tuesday.

Menendez and his wife are being additionally charged with obstruction of justice and conspiracy.  The couple go on trial May 6.

Menendez was going to run for reelection despite the charges but is now expected not to.  New Jersey first lady Tammy Murphy – a political neophyte – is in the lead for the Democratic nomination, which is pathetic.

--The Republican National Committee voted Friday to install Donald Trump’s handpicked leadership team, with North Carolina Republican Michael Whatley replacing Ronna McDaniel.

Lara Trump, the former president’s daughter-in-law, was voted in as co-chair.  While Trump’s team is promising not to use the RNC to pay his mounting personal legal bills, don’t count on it.  Trump and his lieutenants will have firm control of the party’s political and fundraising machinery with zero pushback.  I mean Lara weeks ago was saying the RNC should pay the legal bills.

--If you were planning to honeymoon in Haiti, think again after the government declared a 72-hour state of emergency on Sunday following armed gangs storming a major Port-au-Prince prison, leading to the killing of at least 12 people and the escape of around 4,000 inmates.

Gang leaders say they want to force the resignation of Prime Minister Ariel Henry, who is currently out of the country and trying to get back in.

Violent gang wars have killed thousands in the country since 2020.

--Jack Teixeira, the Massachusetts Air National Guardsman accused of posting secret intelligence reports and sensitive documents online agreed to plead guilty on Monday in exchange for a 16-year sentence and a commitment to comprehensively brief officials on the extent of his leaks.

The Justice Department agreed not to charge him with violations of the Espionage Act, which, when combined with the other charges, could have resulted in a sentence of up to 60 years in prison had he been convicted.

Teixeira, 22, was responsible for one of the most far-reaching leaks of sensitive information in years – a huge embarrassment that revealed how even a low-level service member could retrieve and disclose defense secrets for months without being stopped.  Much of the information he revealed on the social media platform Discord concerned the war in Ukraine, including a highly sensitive report on Russian and Ukrainian troop movements.

--France became the first country in the world to explicitly enshrine abortion rights in its constitution.

Galvanized by the rollback of protections in the United States, the amendment referring to abortion as a “guaranteed freedom” passed by a vote of 780 in favor and 72 against, far above the three-fifths needed.

French President Macron announced that a “sealing ceremony,” a tradition reserved for the most significant laws, would take place Friday, coinciding with International Women’s Day.

“We’re sending a message to all women: Your body belongs to you, and no one can decide for you,” Prime Minister Gabriel Attal told lawmakers assembled in Versailles.

--Alabama Republican Governor Kay Ivey on Wednesday signed into law a measure aimed at protecting in vitro fertilization after the state Supreme Court ruled frozen embryos should be considered children, prompting at least three Alabama providers to halt the procedure.

Both chambers of the state’s Republican-controlled legislature passed the proposal protecting IVF providers from both criminal charges and civil lawsuits after brief debates on Feb. 29.

Republicans nationwide have scrambled to contain backlash from a Feb. 16 decision by the Alabama Supreme Court, whose elected judges are all Republican, that left unclear how to legally store, transport and use embryos, prompting some IVF patients to consider moving their frozen embryos out of Alabama.

--In an outrageous and despicable conclusion, a report cleared police of wrongdoing over the deadly 2022 mass school shooting in Uvalde, Texas.

Independent investigator Jesse Prado said the police officers had acted in good faith – contrary to earlier findings criticizing the slow response.

“You call that good faith? They stood there 77 minutes,” said Veronica Mata, whose 10-year-old daughter was killed.

Prado, a former police detective tasked with investigating the local police response to the shooting at Robb Elementary School, presented his findings to the Uvalde city council on Thursday.

Mata said police had “waited after they got call after call that kids were still alive in there” before going in.

Previous scathing reports by multiple federal agencies have faulted the Uvalde Police Department officers at virtually every level.  They were extreme cowards!

Recall, nearly 400 officers responded to the attack – but it took 77 minutes after the first officers arrived for police to confront and kill the 18-year-old shooter.

--New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) said on Wednesday that she would deploy National Guard soldiers and State Police officers to the New York City subway system, where they will patrol platforms and help check bags.

Hochul said a large show of force in the system, which is operated by the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, a state agency, would help commuters and visitors to the city feel safe.

Additional law enforcement officers would add to an already large presence in the subways, where Mayor Eric Adams ordered an additional 1,000 officers in February following a 45 percent spike in crime in January compared with the same time last year.

“These brazen heinous attacks on our subway system will not be tolerated,” Hochul said during a news conference.

Some 750 New York National Guard and an additional 250 personnel from the State Police and the M.T.A. will be deployed. They will work with the NYPD to make sure no weapons are brought into the subways.

But already with the bag checks there are cries of ‘profiling.’

--That was one helluva blizzard in the Sierra Nevada mountains last weekend.  I was constantly going onto the webcams in Truckee (Donner Pass) and the surrounding area.  At least 7 feet of snow fell across a broad region, and a 190-mph wind gust was recorded Friday night atop the summit of the Palisades Tahoe ski resort.  And more snow fell midweek.

A 71-mile stretch of Interstate 80 was shut down in both directions for a large period of time at one point, and on Monday, remained closed to the Nevada border.

Statewide snowpack by Monday had swelled to 104% of normal for the date after starting the year at 32%.  Snowpack was about 94% of its average for April 1, the date when it is typically at its deepest.

Yes, the reservoirs will be just fine this summer for a second year, but with all the rain and snow, you’ll once again hear about how the renewed vegetation then poses a wildfire risk when things dry out...fuel for future fires.  If it isn’t one thing, it’s another.

--Last month was the world’s warmest February in modern times, 1.77 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial average for that time of year, the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service showed, extending the run of monthly records to nine in a row.  Each month since June 2023 has seen new temperature highs for the time of year.

The world’s sea surface is at its hottest on record, while Antarctic sea-ice has again reached extreme lows.

Temperatures are still being boosted by the Pacific’s El Nino weather event, but human-caused climate change is by far the main driver of the warmth.

“Heat-trapping greenhouse gases are unequivocally the main culprit,” stresses Prof. Celeste Saulo, Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization.

Severe heat afflicted western Australia, southeast Asia, southern Africa and South America.

Australia’s Great Barrier Reef is suffering its fifth mass bleaching event in eight years, officials have confirmed.

Bleaching occurs when heat-stressed corals expel the algae that gives them life and color.  This is not good for multiple reasons.

--Lastly, to end on something positive, The Economist had a tidbit on all the coins visitors toss into Rome’s Trevi Fountain carrying wishes for love, good health or a return to the Eternal City.  Care to guess what the value of the coins is in a given year?

Coins pile up for several days before they are fished out and taken to the Rome division of the worldwide Catholic charity Caritas, which counts the bucketfuls of change and uses them to fund a food bank, soup kitchen and welfare projects.

In 2022, Caritas collected 1.4 million euros ($1.52 million) from the fountain, and it expects to have gathered even more in 2023.

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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces...and all the fallen.

Pray for Ukraine and the innocent in Gaza.

God bless America.

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Gold $2184...all-time closing high
Oil $77.84

Bitcoin: $69,200 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]

Regular Gas: $3.40; Diesel: $4.05 [$3.44 / $4.37 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 3/4-3/8

Dow Jones  -0.9%  [38722]
S&P 500  -0.3%  [5123]
S&P MidCap  +1.4%
Russell 2000  +0.4%
Nasdaq  -1.2%  [16085]

Returns for the period 1/1/24-3/8/24

Dow Jones  +2.7%
S&P 500  +7.4%
S&P MidCap  +6.1%
Russell 2000  +2.8%
Nasdaq  +7.2%

Bulls 59.4
Bears 16.0 [Investors Intelligence]

Hang in there.

Brian Trumbore

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